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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the party down 10 points in its latest poll

With just six days to go the news this morning has been dreadful for TMay and her CON party. First we had confirmation from the Crown Prosecution Service that three people are to face charges over party expenses at Thanet south at GE2015.

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nielh

Hmmm. Interesting. So 52% of the country are going to vote for labour or lib dem? It's not consistent with what I see and hear, but perhaps my experience is not representative.

My own prediction is that the labour share of the vote is piling up in places where it is no use to them ie seats that they already hold, and seats where they have no chance of winning. I still have no idea where people expect labour to win, or even hold seats, following Corbyns newfound popularity. Just thinking about places like Swindon, Nuneaton, Dagenham etc etc. Obviously I am not a pollster, but this analysis seems to be totally lacking.

I also suspect that May is going to be a Merkelesque survivor, my gut instinct is that she represents the silent majority. I think that FPTP will result in a disproportionate victory compared to the share of the vote.

I'm betting on a conservative majority between 50 and 125.

Once this is over May will have a decent working majority and breath a sigh of relief, whilst the inevitable increase in the share of the vote will shore up the power of the hard left within the labour party.