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Anorak

First!!! Where did the article's Dan Hodges tweets go?

And Mike - how much is the wager worth?

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Next!

Ishmael_X

test

dr_spyn

Lab Co-Op MPs are very quiet about zero hours contracts used by Co-Op's funeral services.

http://order-order.com/2013/08/07/labours-zero-comment-on-the-co-op-zero-hour-stance-spells-conference-chaos/

POLABC0-OPWAS.

RichardNabavi

As I pointed out on the previous thread, the Electoral Calculus and Betfair implied probabilities are estimates of different things.

The Electoral Calculus 3% is an estimate of what Nate Silver would call a 'NowCast', i.e. the probability if the opinion polls were as they are today AND there really was an election scheduled for tomorrow.

The Betfair 24% is the implied probability for 20 months' time, quite correctly taking account of the fact that, at the very least, things change in politics. No-one knows what may happen over the next 20 months, so you have to factor in the possibility of plausible shifts in the polling over that time.

Plato

dr_spyn said:

Lab Co-Op MPs are very quiet about zero hours contracts used by Co-Op's funeral services.

http://order-order.com/2013/08/07/labours-zero-comment-on-the-co-op-zero-hour-stance-spells-conference-chaos/

POLABC0-OPWAS.

I'd have thought being quiet and zero hours is perfect for the dead!