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Speaking of which, the party has captured the services of Jim Messina, a strategist who has worked with Barack Obama. He will whip CCHQ’s mercurial digital assets into shape and help to sell the government’s economic record.
Aside from enjoying the benefit of Messina’s gifts, this is a PR coup for the ‘nasty party’. Observe the reaction of certain Labour figures:
siôn simon @sionsimon
Jim Messina either doesn't know or doesn't care what a malignant thing the Tory party is. Poor show either way. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/02/tories-hire-obama-election-strategist …
Meanwhile, this morning’s papers are full of ‘Unite run the Labour Party’ stories after yesterday’s MEP selection. The Tories have got one of Team Obama; Labour has got Len McCluskey."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/08/the-tories-bag-jim-messina-for-2015/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-tories-bag-jim-messina-for-2015
"Unite is poised to increase its hold over the Labour Party after it emerged that the union had successfully put forward candidates to win crucial European seats next year. The union already says that eight out of Labour’s 13-strong contingent in the European parliament are “Unite MEPs”. In a development that prompted fresh claims that the union has too much power over the party, it was disclosed that Unite had all but guaranteed that more of its candidates would be handed £83,000-a-year jobs in Strasbourg.
The Times revealed in April that senior Labour figures were concerned that Unite was attempting to “stitch up” the election process. They said that some popular candidates had been excluded to clear the way for those supported by the party’s biggest financial backer.
It became clear yesterday that several more Unite candidates were in line to win a seat in the European parliament after next May’s elections. Some Labour members threatened to resign from the party in disgust." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3833121.ece
@AnotherDave
UKIP did carry Forest of Dean in May. I don't know where you got the information from that they didn't.
I think because the Tory's IT cocked up so spectacularly (according to reports) in the past they're going to be more careful to get it right now. This article suggests that they have been working on their systems ahead of this appointment (though it describes it mainly in the context of data protection issues):
http://amberhawk.typepad.com/amberhawk/2013/03/could-the-conservative-partys-electoral-database-breach-the-data-protection-act.html
I
Enjoy
http://jane-griffiths-my-book.blogspot.it/2013/08/call-him-number-what.html
http://www.number10.gov.uk/output/Page84…
http://www.worldatlas.com/aatlas/infopag…
With all due respect,even per capita the U.S spends a lot more than we do on election campaigns.
She never disappoints! I was unable to find her blog for a while, glad I can bookmark it again
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2012/11/nate-silver-predicted-uk-2010-general-election-wrong/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/27/nate-silver-labour-swing
Allegra Stratton @BBCAllegra
Jim Messina has just me his statement, which begins: "I have long admired Prime Minister Cameron." Quite an endorsement for the PM.
Comeon,When a guy pays you a million dollars a year,the least you can say is you like the guy.
I expect that Mr Crosby will be the message man and Mr Messina will get it packaged in the best way and to the right audinces.
Is the man who helped Obama to win now some venal lacky who'll say and do anything?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/
`Messina, who is working solely on the election campaign, and not on party policy, will report directly to Mr Cameron’s Australian election strategist Lynton Crosby, and Tory co-chairmen Grant Shapps and Lord Feldman. Sources said he ‘does not come cheap’ although he has ‘not yet’ cost the party £1million`
`
But apart from the fact that the Tories seem to be a day late and a billion dollars short, the Obama techniques need people at the sharp end who are comfortable with the technology. I think this was part of Romney's problem with the ORCA clusterfuck, too. For example, they sent out a URL without https:// at the beginning, and forgot to set up a page to bounce them from the http:// URL, so their activists couldn't figure out how to access the site. I reckon Obama's demographics would have figured that one out among themselves.
Now, I don't want to stereotype, but look at the comments to the Carswell piece I posted on the last thread.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/idemocracy-and-a-new-model-party/ PS. I think I recognize that guy.
On the plus side I suppose Messina will help attract smart people on the UK who want the experience of working with him, but if they're only hiring these people now, they're already doing it wrong.
A violent prisoner has had a free sex change operation on the NHS which will cost taxpayers £10,000, it has emerged.
Alan Baker is now in the vulnerable prisoner wing at Elmley jail on the Isle of Sheppey, Kent, calling himself Sarah.
Once the 43-year-old's controversial gender change has been completed, he will be transferred to a women’s prison.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2383992/Violent-inmate-Alan-Baker-given-10-000-sex-change-NHS.html#ixzz2audmud2S
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm70/7032/7032_ii.pdf
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxDZjhmTEpGcTVUS2ktVG1JUmVlRFE
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/forestofdean/
Survation put the result as follows:
UKIP: 6247
Con: 6039
Lab: 5510
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Survation-Locals-Analysis-UKIP-Section.xls
Glad we've got that clear!
England 14/1
Australia 5/2
Draw 4/11
http://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/event?eventId=27027045
Take care. You are descending to the depths of Surbiton who spent the whole of yesterday complaining about "burly" police officers at London Underground stations.
Facts and evidence are important. The only video we had of UKBA officers was from Southall: the WPC was short and petite and the greying PC looked more undernourished than Mark Senior. "Burly" they were not.
As your claim that the UKBA do not catch illegals this is contradicted by official statistics. What has changed over the past three years when compared with nearly a decade ago is that there has been a significant fall in forced repatriations offset by an equivalent rise in voluntary departures. "Nasty", "burly" Tories!
He polled over 50% in the first ballot. It's finished. All over. He is now taking pics surrounded by activists with placards
I condemned both the Labour and Tory approach. The miniscule was in reference to highly-publicised random street checks.
What's interesting from those figures is the number of illegals detained and deported at port under "open door" Labour. How is that possible, given that we have been told there were no immigration controls until 2010?
But LabourList implored Obama to stop him being employed in this role using Twitter - after spending the entire entire week wringing their hands about abusing people and then try to intimidate this chappy.
It's just brilliant Thick Of It stuff. Scared much? Clearly "very spooked" as Allegra Stratton that well known Tory on Newsnight described it.
Interesting view from the US Newsweek and Beast chap. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/10220425/American-Way-can-Jim-Messina-do-for-David-Cameron-what-he-did-for-Barack-Obama.html
I was part using your post to get at Surby's "burly" policemen.
Here is a trend chart showing trends in work related immigration going back to 2005:
https://assets.digital.cabinet-office.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/image_data/file/11439/work1-q1-2013.jpg
On non-work related immigration there has been a substantial fall in asylum applications over this period, part due to new legislation and policy but mostly due to a quietening of international conflict over the period.
On your point about immigration controls before 2010, I am sure they were in place, but didn't the government then in office spent all its time on increasing borrowing?
Third, what of the internal Conservative Party dynamics? Is Messina an Osborne signing? Isn't social media supposed to be Shapps's baby? If Shapps were in the Cabinet, I'd be looking at prices for his departing as Party Chairman.
How many Unions are you member of?! Cancel all memberships and take up the Musicians Union. They can't be accused of any take over.
Now, about the photo .....
.... is there anything you can do to help?
Especially as it would stop civil servants setting up committees "to communicate project ownership and improve messaging to staff and stakeholders".
But isn't bitcoin a little too volatile? A currency is mostly there to support exchange of value not promote investment risk.
It's the annoyance that's clearly been generated for Labour. And the huffy petulance that Mr Messina belongs to them and isn't allowed to work for anyone they disapprove of. When a normally sensible chap like Mark Ferguson sends out a plea to 11000 for Obama to stop this and says that the Obama supporters group will be upset - they're clearly rattled in a most public way.
You can dismiss this loftily but its there in spades already. As BBCAllegra said "spooked".
When I placed my bet on England about 45 minutes ago they were 14/1. They're now 11/1.
he infamous Dick Morris served Republicans and Cliton and then became one of the Clintons' harshest critic.
He predicted a Romney landslide too ! So much for these "experts".
http://t.co/QXqmhPavNp
For non-bonkers purposes, the volatility is OK if it's just a little bit of money you use for online purchases. If it's not a big proportion of your net worth you don't mind the risk that it'll go down, as long as it's made up for by a chance that it'll go up. In practice prices get set in traditional currencies, then converted when you make the sale.
LabourList - Raising our game: 5 things Labour can do to counter Messina
"The Tories’ near-million pound hire of Jim Messina is a brilliant psy-op against Labour. We love Obama, we’re proud of our ground game, we dismiss the Tories. Why? Because we feel that we are the People’s Party, we’re the Movement that represents masses whist they are the direct mail-only party, incapable of mobilizing properly on ground
All of that feels threatened now.
But as Messina’s old boss Rahm Emanuel would say “never let a good crisis go to waste”. Now we feel threatened we should take a deep breath, assess our strengths and weaknesses and mitigate and reinforce accordingly."
By my reckoning there are 660 runs left in the match assuming no weather interruptions.
England need to make 320 of those to draw level with Australia with six wickets in hand..
So that means bowling out Australia in the third innings for less than 170 (unlikely) and making that total either as a first innings lead (very unlikely) or a fourth innings chase (possible).
Your odds suggest England would win once in every 15 matches they found themselves in a similar position.
"3) Fundraising: We’ve all seen the improvement in Labour’s small donor drives (even the email writing sounds more like the shadow cabinet members they’re meant to be!) but what of the high-end donors? Here special responsibility lies with both Ed’s. Do they know how much money the party needs to raise by 2015? Do they have quarterly goals? How much time at present do they spend fundraising? Do they understand that their time raising money for field organisers is more valuable then countless think tank speeches?"
There's just one problem: the liking was fake, done by a team of low-paid workers in Dhaka, Bangladesh, whose boss demanded just $15 per thousand "likes" at his "click farm". Workers punching the keys might be on a three-shift system, and be paid as little as $120 a year.
The ease with which a humble vegetable could win approval calls into question the basis on which many modern companies measure success online – through Facebook likes, YouTube video views and Twitter followers.
Channel 4's Dispatches programme will on Monday reveal the extent to which click farms risk eroding user confidence in what had looked like an objective measure of social online approval."
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/aug/02/click-farms-appearance-online-popularity
I very fond of courgettes - if only I'd known!
You have a good candidate.
The opponent is unlikeable.
You have a Bill Clinton* to take on opposition smears.
*note that Bill Clintons don't grow on trees
"Mr Messina is showing a willingness to work outside partisan lines, signing up with the Conservatives instead of Labour. This makes more sense when you consider that Mr Cameron's policies – such as support for gay marriage and confronting climate change – would probably make him a centrist Democrat in the United States.
This hire is a coup in large part because it highlights the fact that the Third Way is alive and well – but it extends beyond the confines of party label. In addition, the gravity-defying personal good will that exists for Mr Obama and to a lesser extent Mr Cameron can be translated to election day support in the face of uninspiring alternatives."
People on the techno-libertarian right aren't generally worried about the volatility because they think it will go up in the long-term, as people discover that the government can't be trusted to run currencies. I don't think these people are right about that, but the fact is that some of these people are very smart. The Tories should pay them in whatever it takes to hire them. If they want to get paid in goats, give them goats.
For non-bonkers purposes, the volatility is OK if it's just a little bit of money you use for online purchases. If it's not a big proportion of your net worth you don't mind the risk that it'll go down, as long as it's made up for by a chance that it'll go up. In practice prices get set in traditional currencies, then converted when you make the sale.
I see two big problems.
1. I haven't yet seen a business case for micro transaction payment systems which can return investment.
To compensate for the inability of transaction fees to cover processing costs, schemes like bitcoin need to earn their money on the clearing and prepayment float. In times of low interest rates, the interest margin will not be enough.
This is why bitcoin has been forced into ensuring it gets its returns from appreciating 'currency' values and by encouraging users to trade it as an asset rather than an utility.
This creates bubble/ 'boom and bust' / ponzi scheme pressures which in turn deters use of bitcoin as a payment system.
2. The 'libertarian' aspect can easily lead to the non-state currency becoming a tax evasion, laundering and law-breaking vehicle. The Feds are watching and will move to close operations down if users succumb to easy temptation.
Bitcoin are better establishing wide use of the product then selling up to one of the bank supported international payment systems. The premium paid would be a much better way of gaining a return on investment than any artificial inflating of the 'currency' value.
"I think it’s time you learned a bit more about me. Be warned, it isn’t pretty. Basically, my sex life is a mess. I’ve never had a successful relationship with women, owing to the fact that I’m misogynistic, immature and a braying right-winger with a face like a horse. And we haven’t even got on to the size of my penis yet which, as you can well imagine, is minuscule.
Then there’s my unfortunate educational background. You’d think it would be an advantage having had an excellent private education at Malvern followed by a stint reading English at Oxford. But God, you couldn’t be more wrong. From public school all I learned is arrogance and a sense of entitlement and a lofty disdain for the poor while my English degree, being a mere “humanity”, is worthless and leaves me especially ill-qualified to comment on any issue which has to do with science.
And it’s not just that I’m ignorant about science, either. I’m actually anti-science. Perhaps it’s all the money I’m paid by Big Oil, perhaps it’s because I’m mentally ill, or perhaps it’s just because I’m plain evil but, would you believe it, I’m on a personal mission to disseminate ignorance by deliberately distorting the truth about issues like climate change because it doesn’t accord with my selfishness and greed and refusal to alter my rapacious lifestyle for the common good.
Did I mention my mental illness? I think I did but it really can’t be mentioned often enough. I’m sick, warped, perverted – not to mention stupid, childish, puerile, irresponsible, silly, flippant, sexist, racist, disablist – and totally wrong in the head. It’s all down to the lack of love I received as a child, which turned me into a rampant attention seeker. The kind of upbringing I have scarcely bears thinking about but what we can say with confidence is this: the values imparted to me by my parents were so perverse that they created the veritable monster I am today.
Nah. Not really. The hideous creature I’ve just described isn’t me but an amalgam of the various things that get said about me pretty much every day, either in the troll comments below my blogs, or on Twitter or via email. Lest you think I’m making this up, here are some very recent examples... > http://bogpaper.com/2013/08/02/delingpole-on-friday-why-theres-no-point-arguing-with-lefties/
Bugger! That's one more we'll have to find somewhere else.....
I have heard references to Conservative party database problems, but no details. Are there any links anywhere about what is rumoured to have gone on?
Congratulations to Nick P.
It may be difficult for the Feds to suppress operations but where there is a will there will be a way.
Banks are always buying mutuals. Bitcoin's owners are its users (and developers). Everyone has a price.
Bedford: Richard Fuller vs Patrick Hall
Broxtowe: Anna Soubry vs Nick Palmer
Burnley: Gordon Birtwistle vs Julie Cooper
Cambridge: Julian Huppert vs Daniel Zeichner
Newton Abbot: Anne Marie Morris vs Richard Younger-Ross
Warwickshire North: Dan Byles vs Mike O'Brien
1) They apparently lost their central database weeks before Eastleigh when a vendor went bust, and weren't able to get it back by Eastleigh.
2) People were still complaining that their system (I think it's Merlin) was unavailable at the local elections, quite a bit later.
No of course not, they're going to pay this turn-coat £1m to fiddle about with a legacy IT system between now and May 2015...
Unlike most others on your list the LAB candidate chosen for Burnley is NOT like Nick Palmer the ex MP. The first time incumbency bonus will go to Entwistle.
So they needed a cron job to do a dump or hotcopy, and the necessary mirrored infrastructure at a different company? Not necessarily easy to set up or to ensure it works when a disaster happens. Hardly the first time It's occurred. It's why good IT people can and do earn a great deal of money.
The best (and saddest) one I heard was when the IT director of a small company of about thirty employees became seriously ill, and no-one had access to some passwords. He was apparently a rather autocratic fellow who did not to hand over control to mortal underlings. Cue a distressing incident between his soon-to-be-widow and the finance director in the hospital ...
As an aside, perhaps this is my age (all of 40), but I distrust the cloud for sensitive confidential information; better to have them in-house. Then again, I'm not IT so my contact with those sorts of choices is thankfully limited.
Congratulations
I think we all have to be honest and call a spade a spade. Let 's not try to defend the initiatives of a known xenophobe.
Anyway, all of this is seriously damaging Tory chances with ethnic minority voters. Some may say that's not critical but as GE2010 showed ethnic minority voters have a significant impact on the overall result - see Lord Ashcroft's report.