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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know
A new poll shows that UK adults overwhelmingly trust Theresa May rather than Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate Brexit by a margin of 51% to 13%. All else is secondary writes Keiran Pedley.
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The British government would have no legal obligation to either pay a €60bn (£52bn) Brexit bill mooted by the European commission or honour payments into the EU budget promised by the former prime minister David Cameron, according to analysis by the House of Lords EU financial affairs sub-committee.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/04/uk-could-quit-eu-without-paying-a-penny-say-lords
Thinking about the forthcoming negootiations with the European Union, what attitude do you think other European countries will end up taking?
They will probably negotiate constructively to find a
deal that works for both Britain and the EU : 30
They will probably obstruct a good deal to punish
Britain and discourage other countries from leaving 47
A view pretty uniformly held across all age groups and demographics.
And who would you trust more to negotiate the terms of Britain's exit from the European Union?
A Conservative government under Theresa May: 45
A Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn: 16
Neither: 24
All consistent with the Opinium polling above.
Con > 100 seat Maj: +3 (possible/likely/certain: 59%)
Con ± 50 seat Maj: +7 (possible/likely/certain: 68%)
Con small Maj: -18 (possible/likely/certain: 54%)
Hung Parl Con coalition: -44 (unlikely/almost impossible: 49%)
Hung Parl Lab coal w' SNP/LD: -32 (unlikely/almost impossible: 55%)
Lab Maj: -25 ('unlikely/almost impossible' 63%)
They will probably negotiate in a transparent way in accordance with established protocols, mistakenly assuming the UK will do likewise.
The other question is what the UK should pay regardless of the above. The HoL report is less clear. However, at least half the 'bill' consists of reste à liquider (RAL) which are really nothing more than unfunded promises to spend money in the future that were only ever going to be spent if all the nations agreed to fund them in the future, which has never happened. There is no good grounds for the UK to pay any of this after Brexit. If this was dropped, I suspect the remainder could be negotiated, but this amount (30 billion plus) is completely unrealistic.
It is the weakness of this large sum which is causing the EU to behave in such an overbearing manner - they know it can only be extracted via blackmail as the legal basis is non-existent.
@dvidallangreen Dear gods. Read this account of the May-Juncker dinner conversation.
Re Juncker's remarks on the previous thread, I would take them with a large ladleful of salt. First of all, he was almost certainly very drunk at the time and has no very clear idea of what was said - only general impressions. Secondly, as has been repeatedly pointed out to me by others, he is an irrelevant cipher. It seems to me quite possible Davis, who is well known for having an odd sense of humour and erratic personality, was winding him up (with the connivance of the others, all of whom of course rightly regard Juncker as both an idiot and a nasty piece of work). I don't think this really signifies anything other than the huge level of mistrust between the two sides, which is of course yet another reason to expect no deal.
However, I did find it ironic Juncker was in a panic saying to Merkel the UK would negotiate in bad faith, given he was the one who said the EU would refuse to honour any agreement it had with David Cameron.
Just saw the strap line on BBC World news just before 6 and saw free bats being given to Indian brides! I immediately thought of the free owls given by Ed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39766334
Macron seems a very shrewd man from what I've learned about him. It's becoming easier to see why he's made the runoff and Fillon hasn't. He's got the potential to be France's best president in years.
That said, of course, identifying problems is one thing, coming up with solutions is much harder.
Give us a link!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552
Pope Paul Nuttall being the best UKIP leader in many a long month springs to mind ....
Old Bonehead is all over the place and Labour say one thing and mean another (and no one knows what that will be).
Farron is anti-democratic. He wants to do whatever he wants and bollocks to the referendum result.
Evasions and economy with the truth are accepted as political weapons. Downright lies are not. The LDs will implement the will of the people, but only as long as it suits them.
on secrecy:
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858813725981241344
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858814025567801345
It is the EU that wants the progress to be widely discussed. TM wants it all secret until all agreed, so she can sell her pig in a poke.
Therefore, I expect that the LDs only have a chance in the second zone and may even lose 1 or 2 of the seats that they currently hold, so predict that they will end up with less than 20 seats, as suggested by A.Meeks. Labour have a large number of seats in the first zone, so I expect that they will lose a large number of seats, in excess of what may be predicted by UNS. If Labour's overall vote share is close to that at the last GE (i.e. about 30% as I expect), despite losing a large number of seats (because of large swings in Leave areas and collapse in the UKIP vote), will Corbyn resign or be deposed post the GE?
Those with a betting inclination should take note of the findings in this article,
The £50 billion bill is amusing. Think of a number and double it a couple of times. Have you ever left a club because of dissatisfaction and received a ludicrous bill to leave? If some Remainers are happy to pay it without a quibble, I suggest they organise a whip round.
We all know it's a negotiating position. We start with "Hard Brexit or else? OK, we'll go for Hard Brexit." They counter with "The bills, the bills first, think of the children left behind."
What is unusual is that there's a few (but only a few) British citizens cheerleading for the EU.
Still quite a contrast to the stitch up Giscard perpetrated over the infamous Constitution pour l'Europe.
Just ask Theresa May
Edit - or are you being ironic and describing yourself? Your lack of self awareness is certainly one of your less endearing traits.
From Jeremy Cliff's report on the dinner:
19) Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39745057
I'm sure Mr Starmer would be much more acceptable to them. Why do you think that is?
Just, just maybe, Nanny DOESN”T know best!
It's disturbing to think Starmer would be an improvement on him...
The UK electorate decided to trade a little economic growth for democratic accountability - as was their right. We now have millionaires Miller accepting donations from abroad to campaign against the result.
Whatever you think of this leak, there is no aspect of it that suggests that the prospects of any kind of deal are high. Car crash Brexit looms.
Or do you think they will do a Groucho Marx if the price we offer is right?
That's the nature of politics - you trust who you want to trust, and that's why trust is so important.
Labour's problem is that we know the party members prefer Remain, as do the MPs in general. So when they say "We respect the will of the people", we're waiting for the other shoe to drop "But ..."
May has achieved that rare position. Even if she was a Remainer, most Leavers trust her. Ukip won't have any traction.
Whatever you think of the EU demands, they are clear about what they want, focused on getting their goals and have planned for them rigourously
Labour is running a good campaign, particularly compared to the blank manifesto of the Tories. Employment rights yesterday, rent reform today. They are going to have their agenda out first.
Much of it is impractical populist nonsense incompatible with the real world, but that is the international political fashion of the times.
Jezza is a poor and ineffectual leader, but one of his strengths is campaigning. He is going to come over surprisingly well.
Morning all and thank you for the comments on my thread header yesterday.
It's been said before but bears repeating that immigration control with single market membership is simply not on offer from the EU. Had it been the referendum result would likely have been different.
It seems daft to me that the rest of the EU was not prepared to be a bit more flexible on this. Britain being a member of the single market is a benefit to them also (even if the relative weight of that advantage is different) but we are where we are. Even if Labour were led by Starmer he would not be able to get such a deal.
And as a man of medicine you know what must be done !!
Keir, bless his socks, is asking for the moon as a minimum, and we all know it. Yet he continues his deluded quest.
The EU can't give us this - it would ensure their break-up. It will only happen if we pay so much, it will be seen as a heavy defeat and a punishment beating - to coin a phrase.
Short-sighted, stupid, reckless and likely to cause a completely avoidable catastrophe for everybody. But very typical of the way the EU approaches matters.
It's not that people want May to be the negotiater, it's that if it's a choice between May and Corbyn, they realise May is the only viable option.
If they had a free choice, they would probably want someone who appeared to know what they were doing.
Read article 50. They can impose NOTHING on the UK. The UK and the EU are discussing an exit agreement (which requires UK approval) and an FTA, which is by definition an agreement between two consenting parties. If they think they can dictate terms, there will simply be no agreement. They will (as David correctly told them) not get any 'divorce' money or have any way of pursuing this, and the EU will end up paying a net GBP7-10 billion a year in tariffs to the UK. There will be some degree of mutual economic damage. And life will go on.
Amazing isn't it that the only time the EU is even barely functional as an organisation is when they have someone to bully. Wrong target this time.
Leaving aside the obvious error on dates in "May has been floundering around since June 24th...", I am not sure that sitting at your keyboard shouting "You're going to screw up the negotiations and look jolly silly, ha ha" is that productive a way to behave. How did sitting at your keyboard shouting "You're going to lose the referendum and look jolly silly, ha ha" work out for you?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/24/labour-vows-to-rip-up-and-rethink-brexit-white-paper
Agreeing to a Brexit bill, normalising the status of EU nationals and staying in the customs union would sort the Irish border. All this would address the 3 preconditions to trade talks set by the EU27 the other day. Starmers approach would get onto trade almost immediately. There would still be a risk of failure to get a suitable agreement, but that seems nailed on with May's approach.
F1: my post-race Russian ramble is up here, comrades:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/russia-post-race-analysis.html
Interesting to see how the local results get portrayed by the media. Also got the second leg of the French presidential election at the weekend.
The EU 'goals' for a deal are as delusional and unattainable as ours; and their rhetoric almost as disobliging.
I have some hope that the temperature will cool a bit after the elections in France, here and Germany, but that seems far from certain.
(Sorry I used the wrong quote earlier)
The Audi R8 Spyder Mk II
Rather a nifty little highway perambulator. Even JackW was ever so slightly shaken and stirred. Sadly not much room for Mrs JackW's shopping expeditions .... suddenly the car grows on me very considerably ....
The problem now is that it's trying to go bilateral at the same level, but from outside. Something will give. Either we operate at a much lower level or we put ourselves in the situation where we only do what the EU tells us. It's hard to claim that either of those is better than full membership and no-one has prepared the British public to make the choice between the two remaining options.
For myself, I have been grappling with this question since the referendum.