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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the laun
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey
We should get a sense on Thursday of whether this movement in the polls is reflected in UKIP’s performance in real elections. Two of the County Council divisions won by the purples on May 2nd are up.
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Conventional wisdom is that the Prime Minister has kicked the EU issue into touch until well after the next General Election in 2015. His speech in January promised a renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with the EU and a referendum on the outcome by 2017. But is it that simple? Graeme Leach explains the complications of ‘the EU ticking time bomb’.
http://www.iod.com/connect/8/b/economicsarticles/the-eu-ticking-time-bomb/default?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social-media&utm_content=connect-article&utm_campaign=the-eu-ticking-time-bomb
The UKIP differences presumably reflect the differences in methodology for a party that isn't usually much in the news. Survation prompts for them, minimising the loss. ICM not only doesn't prompt for them but deems that half the don't knows will vote as they did last time which is nearly always not UKIP) and people who didn't vote (which is often UKIP fans) probably won't vote this time. I doubt if the ICM model really works for UKIP.
That seems unreasonable. The peak poll almost by definition will be an outlier above almost every other poll. What would be a more reasonable comparison is the most recent poll against the same poll a month ago. Or two months ago or some other time, not the statistical peak.
As well as pornography, users may automatically be opted in to blocks on "violent material", "extremist related content", "anorexia and eating disorder websites" and "suicide related websites", "alcohol" and "smoking". But the list doesn't stop there. It even extends to blocking "web forums" and "esoteric material", whatever that is. "Web blocking circumvention tools" is also included, of course.
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-07/27/pornwall
I would expect UKIP to do well at the Euro elections if the turnout remains appallingly low and then struggle to save its deposit virtually everywhere in 2015. The polls will go up and down but make little difference to what happens in the real world.
Meanwhile surprised to find myself quoted in the Labour supporting Scottish Sunday Mail (sister paper of the Daily Record) today on the utterly stupid decision of NTS to ban the wearing of Skean Dhu's at the Bannockburn commemoration next June.
Now you appear be saying very much the same thing when that lead has all but halved to 6%.
I imagine you'll still be chuckling along contently if in the next few months it declines to 2%
And so on.
Good Luck with the selection.
"I would expect UKIP to do well at the Euro elections if the turnout remains appallingly low and then struggle to save its deposit virtually everywhere in 2015."
Until a month or so ago this looked a given but the decline in the UKIP support shown in all the recent polling is beginning to make me wonder. UKIP would normally receive substantial differential support in a Euro election but it is clear that their recent upsurge and subsequent decline has not been about those obsessed with the EU but who are generally unhappy about a range of topics, especially immigration. These NOTA supporters are probably, if anything, even less likely to vote in the Euros than the average.
If I was sitting with a position that UKIP were going to head the euro results I would be seriously concerned. I seem to recall OGH has a bet on the tories topping the poll. Looks a much better bet on current polling trends although Labour must surely be favourites.
The volitility of other companies may of course be nothing more than noise but at least it gives us something new to talk about. I think Nick's point is a valid, if uncomfortable (for me) one. The key to the election is not so much the swing back to the tories, which seems to be well under way, but whether the tories can reduce the support of Labour back to the early 30s. There is not much sign of this so far.
I agree with tim (eek): it's still a little too early to make a definitive pronouncement: you could be right. But in far more de-aligned and often volatile electorate, I don't think so. By the way, in that chart of the polls since 2010 that was published a few days ago, I noticed that for a period the Tories were themselves polling above 40% as they were doing in opposition for years since 2007.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPCykNyCUAALsXS.jpg:large
Council house hot tub...
http://ohnotheydidnt.livejournal.com/79997482.html
My personal suspicion is that much of the UKIP vote will abstain if it doesn't vote UKIP - it's an anti-mainstream vote. Can't prove it though.
Isn't there a market out there somewhere on share of the vote for the two major parties? It might be worth betting on "high" - if the SNP are punctured by losing the referendum, the LibDems are stuffed by their record and UKIP proves to be froth (all ifs but each quite plausible), we could get a remarkably polarised election.
There is no detectable appetite for socialism. Cameron remains politically clumsy, and the LDs are no longer NOTA.
UKIP may do very poorly at the the Euros, and then at the next GE. But not on the evidence the current polls.
http://labourmajority.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Majority-Rules1.pdf
Perhaps the time has come for PB to confer most preferred pollster status to Yougov and Populus and to reduce ICM from Gold standard to (s)crap.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10207169/Prince-George-should-never-be-King-of-Scots-says-pro-independence-chairman.html
What do our resident Nats think?
"Anthony Weiner taken to task by an ex school teacher!"
"You want your mayor to look like this......"
http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/x/www.thehollywoodgossip.com/images.thehollywoodgossip.com/iu/t_xlarge_l/v1374870651/xthe-dirty-anthony-weiner.png.pagespeed.ic.txgg4xYSax.jpg
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=152171954976980
No it is not , the UKIP vote share was 14.5% much of which would have gone as a protest to other parties and Independents rather than Conservative or Labour . The conservative vote share was only 23% although the pattern of the by elections which have come up since May was biased towards Labour areas .
"Want a laugh at Daves migration pledge?"
Want a laugh at Labours apologized record on immigration ?
Want a laugh at Blairs "March them to an ATM"
Canavan actually said that Scots should be offered a second referendum, shortly after next year's vote on independence, asking whether they wanted to retain a hereditary monarchy. I wouldn't object to that though we may have more pressing matters at hand, but I certainly think there should be a referendum after the present incumbent dies.
"In the last few months, the Tories have–quite deliberately—behaved like an aggressive opposition. They’ve sought to constantly attack Labour, trying to force them onto the back foot.
Even with David Cameron and George Osborne away on holiday, the Tories are determined to keep doing this. On Wednesday, Grant Shapps will launch the Tories’ summer offensive against Labour. He, in the kind of language more commonly used to promote summer horror films than a political agenda, will invite voters ‘to imagine a world where Ed Balls and Ed Miliband end up back in Downing Street.’
This is all part of the Tories’ efforts to link Miliband to Gordon Brown and memories of the last Labour government. Tory strategists know that Miliband does best when he presents himself as a change from both the current coalition government and the last Labour one, so they’re determined to connect him as closely as possible with Gordon Brown in the public’s mind.
Shapps’ speech will be followed by a string of interventions from senior Tories on the three areas where they consider Labour most vulnerable: welfare, immigration and the economy.
Labour is surprisingly quiet for an opposition party at this time of year—they normally try and take advantage of the Commons being in recess to grab hold of the news agenda. But Miliband, who has a big conference speech to work on, needs his shadow Cabinet to start not only returning the Tories’ fire but also landing some hits of their own.
Hancock is the only government politician to attack Farage on his right wing and score a hit.
The immigration van is now circling the kippers with Farage standing as much chance of survival as Colonel Custer at the Battle of the Little Bighorn.
I'm very surprised the HOffice did it - and I don't particularly like it as a tactic, but its not racist to point out illegal immigrants are well here illegally and to be assertive about showing them how to avoid being arrested/deported - like returning home or going somewhere else instead first.
Like out of touch pb labour,same is with out of touch pb lib dems on immigration.
Ahem, but it's an "illegal immigrant go home" van!
The van is very similar to the Television Detector Vans and rumoured to be just as effective:
The BBC states 'television detector vans' are employed by TV Licensing in the UK. Besides claims of (usually undisclosed) sophisticated technological methods for the detection of operating televisions, detection of illegal television sets can be as simple as the observation of the lights and sounds of an illegally used television in a user's home at night. Detection is made much easier because nearly all houses do have a licence, so only those houses that do not have a licence need to be checked.
However, in the UK there has been not one single prosecution for TV licence evasion based upon evidence obtained using detection equipment, and there is no technical evidence supporting claims that such detection equipment is capable of carrying out the specific task of locating television sets accurately; indeed, detection equipment used even at the perimeter of a dwelling cannot specifically pinpoint receiving devices based upon the equipment's I.F. (intermediate) frequency.
Can Mark Senior now complain knowing the likely detection rate and the van's endorsement by Auntie Beeb?
Two simple justifications:
English is an official language of the EU
Most EU nations have had some kind of British or English military/administrative presence in them wholly or in part at some time over the centuries.
Is that why they won more seats AND votes than Labour in 2010???
My attention to detail has been subverted by learning that SeanT's post has been flagged as "trolling" by a poster with the moniker "Hortence Withering".
Stand forward Hortence and identify yourself.
These TV adverts were very memorable
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtM_t1iPAH0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvritKhT3j8
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=rub+their+noses+in+diversity&rlz=1C1AFAB_enGB460GB460&oq=rub+their&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l3j69i62l2.15792j0&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
She hardly spoke a word of English but managed to explain that she had just arrived in London and her boyfriend was doing a two year course at the business school. She found England really expensive and we sat in the sun and drank champagne most of the afternoon until her man got home.
Later in the evening they brought me a present of dried fish. They bowed too much for my taste but they were both charming good looking and thin.
My question to Crosby and his Tory disciples is this;
What the Hell is there not to like? For my money I'd be happy if the whole building was filled with immigrants like them. Attractive and interesting. Would anyone in their right mind prefer a curmudgeon like Doody living next door?
* In accordance with EU Directive 2004/56/eu "to be played at a sound volume of no greater than 80 db, with a chime lasting no more than 4 seconds and repeated no more than once in any 3 minute period".
Sometimes it takes seeing supposed amazing places to make you notice what's on your own doorstep.
Middle to upper class Japanese, sharing champagne with lefty poseur, having a pleasant afternoon is the template for all immigration.
Are you seriously - and I mean seriously - asserting that the Tories are faring worse now than in October 2012? Only a few days ago, on this very board, you wrote that the Labour lead was about 6-7%.
tim - you're all over the place. Get a grip. We blue lovelies of the pbTory persuasion need the occasional challenge but this is becoming embarrassing.
Another out of touch lefty poster - lol
Pitiful at this stage in the game.
Are you pulling our collective legs here?
"Later in the evening they brought me a present of dried fish. They bowed too much for my taste but they were both charming good looking and thin. "