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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peter the Punter marks your card for tomorrow’s Grand National
The Grand National isn’t my favourite race but like the Boat Race and FA Cup Final, it is one of those televised events that takes a sport way beyond its usual public, so I somehow feel obliged to convey my thoughts on the contest to my adoring PB public and help those who would punt to do so with a little more chance of success, and those who would not with at least a little more understanding a…
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The National isn't my idea of a betting proposition either. I've no strong view on the race except to discount those who've slogged round in the winter mud.
The ground looks decent on the National course and will favour those who like a sound surface rather than the mudlarks.
He's very lightly raced but I think he's a huge e/w suggestion at 50/1 and that's WHAT A FRIEND. I might risk a fiver each-way but no more.
Sounds like one for Pork.
Gullible Avery?
Happily I did draw on Zarkandar yesterday (see weds post) and on Triolo d'alene today so up for Aintree so far....
I like Balthazar King, Teaforthree and Chicago Grey, and for outsiders Soll and Any Currency.
Peter, hope you and other PB punters do well on the horses tomorrow!
My picks for tomorrow are as follows
Imperial Commander
Weird Al (I've always loved Weird Al Yankovich)
Cappa Bleu
Sea Bass
My other hope for tomorrow is that we have no horse fatalities.
SouthamObserver said:
« hide previous quotes
Gerry_Mander said:
SeanT said:
o one feels that sorry for the poor, any more. Life is tuff for everyone. Suck it up, etc.
This is a potential election winner, for the Tories. And if they had a plausible WWC Tebbity leader in place, my guess is they'd win a majority. With Cam and Oz it is unlikely - but not impossible.
The obv irony is that PM Miliband will then have to enforce the biggest welfare cuts in UK history, anyway.
Absolutely bang on Sean, as usual. Is there anyone in the Tories who can do this? A Tebbitty figure, as you say. I can't think of anyone right now, other than Hague, who probably doesn't want it.
What odds on a Tory / UKIP coalition at the next election, where the North votes UKIP?
1,000-1 or perhaps 2,000-1.
I'll have £100@1,000/1 please
I've always stuck to the principle that you treat an animal well and then if you're going to kill it, you do so in as humane way as possible and then if you've bred it for food you eat it.
It's not a non-story because here we effectively kill animals for our sport. 'As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods'.
Market movers - Seabass and Cappa Bleu
Trust tim to see a plot in this relationship!
As JP McManus has retained McCoy since 2004 to ride horses he owns regardless of trainer, it all sounds very suspicious indeed.
Perhaps George Osborne had a hand in McCoy's selection of ride?
No doubt tim will keep us informed.
horse's health, a boy's love, or a whore's oath.
First unopposed return I've found this year (unopposed returns are not common in CC elections given there are less seats to be contested overall):
Conservative Richard Dodd elected unopposed in Ponteland North-Northumberland
Nobody in racing wants fatalities at the National. I'm really not sure that is the case with certain elements of the media.
These big NH races are wonderful for trends followers.Chicago Grey is on my shortlist as well as Pete's and was unlucky when brought down when going well last year.Paul Carberry ought to be fit which is a major bonus.As he is a hold-up horse he will need luck in running but it is Chicago Grey for me.
Which Labour MP today does that sentence belong to - clue,he could be labour leader one day because the mirror,mirror on the wall tells him so ;-)
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/article4873724.ece
Is it the Chuka Umana "trash" quote?
EDIT the link didn't work so I hadn't read it when I posted
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/05/labour-draw-sting-welfare-or-lose-2015
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/article4873724.ece
I keep saying he will be a disaster for labour ;-)
"It's a triumph for Dave!"
Peter Hitchens (@ClarkeMicah)
05/04/2013 15:07
@ivanwhite48 @HackneyAbbott Dear Mr White, Please withdraw this defamatory statement as soon as possible. I know you cannot substantiate it.
EDIT!
Seems like it is White who was the accuser, but Abbott has deleted all relevant tweets
I always seem to turn a profit at the National by backing a bunch on Betfair's place-only market...
Rooting for "Across the Bay" owned by Crosby's own Coyne brothers (a lawyer and a dentist).
But yet again the animal welfare nutters have watered down what used to be the world's greatest race.
We EAT horses, FFS... Who cares if a couple are sacrificed for a far greater glory than a Tesco "beef lasagne"...?
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/75865/daily_mirror_saturday_6th_april_2013.html
@DailyMirror Saturday's exclusive: Nick Clegg pictured on his luxury ski holiday at millionaires' retreat http://twitter.com/DailyMirror/status/320265998362091521/photo/1
Lib Dem leader steps in TWICE on Universal Credit
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/article4874140.ece
Brilliant by the tories,if anything goes wrong with it,clegg to blame = lol
Bear-bating is a cruel sport. Horse racing is not.
There is simply no comparison.
Every horse in the National wants to be there, and has spent their life enjoyably jumping fences. If they die in an accident, so what?
When are we going to ban Formula One?
does it really need to be said (again) that those horses are arguably the best looked after animals on the planet. They are fed, watered, kept warm, exercised, under no threat, and allowed to run with the herd every so often.
Everyone around them dotes on them and even when they are forced to go to Wolverhampton for an evening meeting on the all-weather they receive appropriate support and counselling.
As for who's going to win, I have no idea except for the fact that it will be an around 14/1 shot or less. The National is not a race for outsiders.
Racehorses die every day of the week - over jumps, on the flat, in training. If you want to stop this, you have to ban racing. Then the only thoroughbred horses that will remain will be in zoos, plus a few private pets.
Is this what you want?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_Slovenia
UKIP sources insisted that they would not reach the vote share of Eastleigh but some polling experts expect the party to get between 15 and 20 per cent of the vote, compared with 6 per cent in 2009.
Lots of people get pleasure out of watching the horses race, that's undeniable. It doesn't make it right. Horses regularly die on the jump courses, particularly the National and there's therefore the sense that they are being bred in a life-threatening sport for the pleasure of humans. The animal welfare argument is difficult to sustain, unless of course you've managed to interview them as RC has and taken a poll to ascertain that 100% of them want to be there, despite the possibility they may die.
Human cruelty to animals has a correlation to human on human cruelty incidentally, and it's a sign of a civilised society when it recognises these things and bans them. Fox hunting has rightly been banned. I suspect it's only a question of time before the Grand National follows suit.
Mr. Hos, welcome to pb.com.
On foxhunting: that can be argued to have merit as it reduces the numbers of a pest that damages livestock and property and the alternatives are mixed at best (lamping, poison and shooting all have drawbacks).
Austerity drives low-paid women from Tories (£): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a2f26648-9df8-11e2-bea1-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a2f26648-9df8-11e2-bea1-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http://t.co/HBlTumASpi#axzz2Pcp4ZO3b
Most of the people in this country that love horses the most, work in the horse racing industry.
There was an interview with Jonjo O’Neill in this weeks Times where he talks about how he's struggled to deal following the death of Synchronised.
These people do genuinely care about the welfare of horses.
As well as being a bleep and a bleep Blair is also a bleep and a bleep if he doesn't realize how his malignant reign was only possible because he was floating on a giant credit bubble.
think about what you are saying. (Race)horses are bred to race. If there was no racing there would be no demand for so many horses.
Now, you might say that was a good thing. So where would there be demand for horses? Food, recreation, work. Not sure the pet thing would work out. All told a small percentage of the current number. And if that is your ideal population of horses then we have no argument.
If however you are happy to see a large number of horses a large proportion of which undertake an activity the dangers of which are not much different, say, from those which face a domestic dog or cat in an urban environment, then you must appreciate that racing is a relatively harmless activity and its fatality rate not much different from that of many other animals in captivity and a good deal lower than most wild animals.
That you mention foxhunting, however, leads me to believe that animal welfare is not the beginning and end of your concern.
I don't need to take a poll. Horses that don't like jumping fences, errr... don't become racehorses. They are put out to grass or turned into petfood, or if they are lucky wind up on a shelf at tescos in a 99p meal you can feed to your kids...
If Blair had continued as Labour Leader, come the credit crunch, he surely would have replaced Gordon Brown as Chancellor.
I suspect if he had done that, the Brownites would have made the Labour party unmanageable and Blair would have been forced out.
But he (Farage) and hundreds of would-be councillors will also focus on other populist issues, such as wind farms and the HS2 rail project. “Many of the seats are in rural areas where the local population is furious that the new high-speed rail will decimate beautiful countryside,” a party spokesman said.
You make it sound like these horses have never seen a fence before, never mind jumped a few thousand. And are dragged kicking and screaming to the start line...
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
•Chris Christie (R) 43%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
•Rand Paul (R) 41%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
•Marco Rubio (R) 40%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
•Jeb Bush (R) 38%
•Chris Christie (R) 46%
•Joe Biden (D) 43%
•Joe Biden (D) 49%
•Jeb Bush (R) 41%
•Joe Biden (D) 50%
•Rand Paul (R) 41%
•Joe Biden (D) 53%
•Marco Rubio (R) 39%
-He was a donkey not a horse? or did he end up in Tesco value burger?
(you've no idea what they put in the beer these days)
Interestingly a new Pew poll shows majority support in the US for marijuana legalisation
Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?
•Yes, legal 52%
•No, illegal 45%
My local ward is ripe for that, HS2 is going to rip right through my avatar's stables !, though she'll probably be gone by then.
No, it's nowhere near one in twenty, Socrates.
I think it's about one in eighty, or one fatality every two years. It was two last year, although both were freak accidents. Synchronised was running loose after losing its jockey at Becher's Brook. At the Canal Turn it suddenly decided to pull itself up and swerved awkwardly into the fence, breaking its leg. According To Pete was even unluckier. It jumped Becher's perfectly well but landed on a faller. Another horse then landed on the pair of them. Enquiries were unable to establish whether Pete died as a result of the first or second collision, but it was one or the other, not the fall itself.
The National is not much different from any other steeplechase in terms of its attrition rate. This is not surprising when you consider that the dangers presented by the difficulty of the fences and length of the race are offset by the fact that the horses go a lot slower than they would in, say, a two mile chase over standard fences. It's speed that is the really dangerous element in horseracing.
Horses fall on the flat too, and when they do the results are usually catastrophic, because of the speed at which they are travelling. Flat horses are also more vulnerable to dying in training.
So, if you won't accept racehorse fatalities, you have to ban horseracing. The consequences of that have already been pointed out. If you accept those consequences, fair enough. But why stop at horseracing?
How do you feel about fishing, for example?
Fecking hell, that place is a pain in the arse traffic wise at the best of times.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21235495
Who says student politics is a waste of time?
Not that I ever heard of and given the number of foxes around I would be very surprised if there was ever a shortage.
Mind you, the biggest vermin problem these days is from deer.
Story in my local Daily Echo today.
IT WAS money that they claimed was destined to help cancer patients in the final hours of their lives.
Night after night they would tour pubs and clubs in Hampshire and across the south of England and urge generous customers to hand over money to fund vital nurses who provide palliative care for the dying.
In reality they were a gang of greedy con artists who were shaking falsely branded tins, wearing fake charity identification badges and duping thousands of unsuspecting people into parting with cash that was simply pocketed by the callous group at the end of the night.
Today ringleader Gordon Coe, a well-known ex-pub landlord in Southampton, and his accomplices Pauline Hunt, Susan Christians and husband and wife team Kim and Ben Chapman are facing prison for their roles in the sickening scam that has deprived Marie Curie Cancer Care of many thousands of pounds.
‘Expenses’ Nobody will ever be able to calculate exactly what they stole. It was not known how many times a night, on how many occasions, they skimmed the tins and helped themselves to what they claimed was “expenses” to cover petrol and meals when they were out.
. .
Even by one of their own admissions they were “the most evil b******* going” using the cash they generated to pay for their living. Four of the five lived off benefits, unable to work, but still managed to live a lavish lifestyle taking holidays together in the Dominican Republic, Tenerife and Greece.
Coe was the mastermind of the conspiracy, having initially applied to Marie Curie to become a fundraiser in November 2008. He had filled in the relevant paperwork and supplied two referees to vouch that he was an honest man – one of them being Ben Chapman who saw him as a father figure – and passed the stringent vetting process before being issued with charity T-shirts, a volunteer fundraiser ID card and a paying in book on the understanding he would collect in Southampton.
Coe, now a 65-year-old amputee who is wheelchair bound, was also given around 12 collection tins when he was visited by a local Marie Curie fundraising manager who told him the strict regulations he must abide by – which included that he could not recruit others to help and that collecting pub to pub was not something he should do.
But the code of practice, adhered to by all charities, was brazenly ignored by Coe who recruited the other four unbeknown to the charity.
And during the next two years he only deposited a total of £76 in the charity bank account in three small amounts.
It was on January 15, 2010, that the alarm bells began to sound when a woman – who turned out to be Hunt – appeared in the Salisbury Arms pub in Shirley carrying a tatty ID badge and a very dated looking charity tin.
A customer challenged her, told her he was not happy and later called Marie Curie to report her suspicious behaviour.
They charity naturally became concerned, knowing they did not have a woman collecting for them in that area. They called police while trying to make contact with Coe who was not answering their letters and calls.
Eventually, in March, he got in contact and told the charity he knew Hunt and had given her permission only to empty tins on his behalf. He then asked to be part of the annual Daffodil fundraising appeal and raised £230 which he banked.
But with police involvement ended because no crime had apparently been committed, the scam continued to grow and on the face of it, the gang thought they had the perfect system.
Kim Chapman and Susan Christians were also involved as collectors, with Ben Chapman a driver who would take them from pub to pub.
The women were carrying fake ID badges from the charity, tins with home printed logos and generic seals ordered from the Internet.
On fishing, I have no problem whatsoever. I don't believe fish have any sentience at all. It's like killing insects.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/04/05/democrats-heitkamp-donnelly-now-back-gay-marriage/
That's now a majority of the US Senate. Given that no country in central or eastern Europe has legalised the thing, can we stop this idea that America is much, much more conservative?
Nobody is ranting, Ricardo. Nor is anybody discouraging comparison. On the contrary, it is welcome.
I have the impression from your post that you have never been to a horseracing meeting. You should try it. You could then note for yourself the difference between the treatment of the animals there and those in, say, bearbaiting. It should then be evident why most people would consider one to be civilised and reasonable, the other cruel and uncivilised.
One of the things you would probably note is that it is just about impossible to make half a ton of horseflesh do anything it does not wish to. You are unlikely to see it forced, not least because it would be pointless, as well as cruel.
Yes, it is perfectly possible that The National will one day be banned - and all forms of jump racing, and eventing, dressage, point-to-pointing, flat racing and all forms of equine competition in which horses occasionally die. If and when this happens it will be a triumph of the ignorant over those of us that love animals in general, and horses in particular.
Cecilia Mary Anne Motley (Con)
Simon Jones (Con)
Joyce Bernardette Barrow (Con)
Brian Beckett Williams (Con)
Thomas Henry Biggins (Con)
Peggy Mullock (Con)
Gerald Dakin (Con)
elected unopposed to Shropshire Unitary Council
Another Con seat is already guaranteed too (3 candidates for a 2 members ward, 2 of them being Tories).
http://sethtaras.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/history-channel-brand-campaign/
But if you want to see something even more amazing, google 'Tom Cannon amazing horseracing recovery'.
Tom rides the three horses in which I have an interest and is a great young conditional rider.
I'd recommend a good southern Rhône to accompany any you happen to shoot or run over. Châteauneuf-du-Pape can be disappointing for the price, but a good Vacqueyras such as Clos des Cazaux, or the excellent Cairanne from the Domaine de l'Oratoire St Martin, should be just the ticket.
Just watched it on YouTube, pretty amazing.
A good tipping service is raceclear by the way, a couple of blokes I used to work with run it.
I'll get my coat.
Lol!
Actually, I'm not crazy about killing insects but then I'm a bit of a Buddhist.
Most of the arguments about stopping The National, if not jump racing generally, are pretty silly. As long as the horses are well looked after and not subjected to unreasonable risk, nobody should have a problem.
If I ever gave up watching the sport, it would not be because it is intrinsically cruel - far from it, the horses are mollycoddled - but because I actually get very upset when I see a horse die on the track. Of course I understand that it is an inevitabe consequence of racing horses, and without horseracing one would never see these beautiful animals. The breed would die out.
It is nevertheless very upsetting to see, not least because of the manifest grief and distress of the owners, trainers, stablehands and all the stricken animal's connections. (The horse itself is usually despatched mercifully quickly.)
I do have flashbacks of trying to dry hump a gargoyle.
I'm a jumps man. The flat is just a way of passing time between April and November when the jumps season proper really gets under way.
As a betting medium though, I find 2yos quite profitable.