politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 23rd 2017

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 23rd 2017

Yesterday, Westminster was attacked. If the aim was to stop democracy, then it clearly failed.

Read the full story here

tlg86

First.

Yesterday, Westminster was attacked. If the aim was to stop democracy, then it clearly failed.

Hear hear!

Morris_Dancer

Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.

DavidBrackenbury

Indeed. The actions of this dastard have only strengthened the system he was attacking.

Danny565

I'm intrigued to see how the LibDems do in that Somerset one. They've had a run of pretty mediocre results in the last few weeks.

tlg86

Danny565 said:

I'm intrigued to see how the LibDems do in that Somerset one. They've had a run of pretty mediocre results in the last few weeks.

Yes, I wonder what's changed? Perhaps they've run out of money for the phone bank.

Theuniondivvie

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

chestnut

Is Blackburn a potential Labour loss?

isam

chestnut said:

Is Blackburn a potential Labour loss?

Is it in British Blackburn or British Born Blackburn?

tlg86

isam said:

chestnut said:

Is Blackburn a potential Labour loss?

Is it in British Blackburn or British Born Blackburn?

It's next to Ewood Park which is a bit of a dive.

nunu

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

You do know if Ireland has a hard border an indie Scotland will too.

JackW

New Thread : Channel 4 News ....

Danny565

JackW said:

New Thread : Channel 4 News ....

?

Ishmael_Z

DavidBrackenbury said:

Indeed. The actions of this dastard have only strengthened the system he was attacking.

I hate to sound picky, but one 52 year old man with one vehicle and one knife vs Democracy with a capital D was only going to have one conclusion, surely? The overblown rhetoric suggests that if we were just fractionally less resolute and stiff in the upper lip we'd have fedexed the keys to no. 10 to al Baghdadi by now, and asked him to address both houses of parliament before imposing sharia law.

JackW

Danny565 said:

JackW said:

New Thread : Channel 4 News ....

?

Wait for the PB +1 hour thread for clarification ....

Theuniondivvie

nunu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

You do know if Ireland has a hard border an indie Scotland will too.

You do know if Ireland has a soft border an indie Scotland will too?

Philip_Thompson

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Philip_Thompson

Without diminishing the tragedies for the families affected by yesterday's events I'm glad that there won't be a Thursday by-election thread caused by the attack. I suspect that if one or more had been caused then the Jo Cox precedent would probably have been followed but I'm very glad that was not necessary.

kle4

Danny565 said:

I'm intrigued to see how the LibDems do in that Somerset one. They've had a run of pretty mediocre results in the last few weeks.

Is the LD surge already done?

nunu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

You do know if Ireland has a hard border an indie Scotland will too.

Is either of those a good thing?

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

nielh

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

There's going to be a "frictionless" border. IE a hard border.

nunu

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/844996257202475008

chestnut

It has been a very good day for Brexit today.

Barnier has acknowledged that sorting out citizens’ rights will be top priority while the divorce bill is described thus:

“There is no price to pay to leave. But we must settle the accounts. We will not ask the British to pay a single euro for something they have not agreed to as a member.”

Deutsche Bank look set to take a 25 year lease on a new London HQ while the Dutch are pushing for us to have a combination of Canada+ as a goods deal and a beefed up version of equivalence.

It’s falling into place.

FrancisUrquhart

Has it been revealed how a man with a wrap sheet as long as his beard managed to be a English

isam

FrancisUrquhart said:

Has it been revealed how a man with a wrap sheet as long as his beard managed to be a English

"British"

Born here?!

FrancisUrquhart

Jezza's mates....

Martin McGuinness was "not a terrorist" but a "freedom fighter", Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has claimed.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

Same as British Home Office officers operating in Calais at the moment.

FrancisUrquhart

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Has it been revealed how a man with a wrap sheet as long as his beard managed to be a English

"British"

Born here?!

How did he pass CRB* checks?

* And whatever they are now called.

Essexit

Huh. I was in the City today for work and saw a Polling Station sign near one of the Lloyd's buildings. I had wondered if tonight's local by-election thread might explain its presence, but alas.

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

Same as British Home Office officers operating in Calais at the moment.

They are also policing exit from France, not entry.

The loony Brexit proposal was to place Ireland within the UK border.

JohnO

Essexit said:

Huh. I was in the City today for work and saw a Polling Station sign near one of the Lloyd's buildings. I had wondered if tonight's local by-election thread might explain its presence, but alas.

Elections today for the City of London's Court of Common Council

Carolus_Rex

Philip_Thompson said:

Without diminishing the tragedies for the families affected by yesterday's events I'm glad that there won't be a Thursday by-election thread caused by the attack. I suspect that if one or more had been caused then the Jo Cox precedent would probably have been followed but I'm very glad that was not necessary.

I'm not sure how to respond to that because it does in fact raise a serious point. The Jo Cox precedent should be no such thing. Elections should be contested no matter how distressing the circumstances that caused them. That was the case in the 80s ad 90s (Anthony Berry, Ian Gow) and it still should be. But the only way to test a precedent like that doesn't bear thinking about. So what to do? I think it needs at least two of the major political parties to say,BEFORE it needs saying, that they will contest a seat made vacant by the murder of an MP, no matter what.

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jezza's mates....

Martin McGuinness was "not a terrorist" but a "freedom fighter", Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has claimed.

A "freedom fighter" = somebody fighting freedom, not fighting for freedom.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

Same as British Home Office officers operating in Calais at the moment.

They are also policing exit from France, not entry.

The loony Brexit proposal was to place Ireland within the UK border.

I don't think that's what was meant at all, but what you're saying is then that there's no reason there couldn't be UK immigration officials operating in Irish airports pre-clearing those who're heading to the UK?

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

Same as British Home Office officers operating in Calais at the moment.

They are also policing exit from France, not entry.

The loony Brexit proposal was to place Ireland within the UK border.

I don't think that's what was meant at all, but what you're saying is then that there's no reason there couldn't be UK immigration officials operating in Irish airports pre-clearing those who're heading to the UK?

There's no reason they couldn't pre-clear people heading for the UK, but that is not what was proposed. What was proposed was pre-clearing people entering Ireland, so that an open border could operate between the north and the south.

Essexit

JohnO said:

Essexit said:

Huh. I was in the City today for work and saw a Polling Station sign near one of the Lloyd's buildings. I had wondered if tonight's local by-election thread might explain its presence, but alas.

Elections today for the City of London's Court of Common Council

Ah, thanks. I didn't even know it existed!

isam

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jezza's mates....

Martin McGuinness was "not a terrorist" but a "freedom fighter", Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has claimed.

A "freedom fighter" = somebody fighting freedom, not fighting for freedom.

"One mans freedom fighter is another's terrorist..."

https://youtu.be/w1cKfqhTIYM

chestnut

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

Same as British Home Office officers operating in Calais at the moment.

They are also policing exit from France, not entry.

The loony Brexit proposal was to place Ireland within the UK border.

Net migration to Northern Ireland was less than 2,500 per year between 2000 and 2014, and the reduced right to settle, claim benefits, take up work etc will most likely take that number down, very possibly causing migration displacement to the Irish Republic.

The Irish border as a migration access point is fairly irrelevant.

The bigger issue with the border will be the flow of goods if we go to tariffs.

FrancisUrquhart

A Scotland Yard spokesman said research into other names the attacker used was ongoing, adding: “Khalid Masood is not at this early stage believed to be his birth name.”

DavidBrackenbury

Ishmael_Z said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

Indeed. The actions of this dastard have only strengthened the system he was attacking.

I hate to sound picky, but one 52 year old man with one vehicle and one knife vs Democracy with a capital D was only going to have one conclusion, surely? The overblown rhetoric suggests that if we were just fractionally less resolute and stiff in the upper lip we'd have fedexed the keys to no. 10 to al Baghdadi by now, and asked him to address both houses of parliament before imposing sharia law.

Well not quite, but it did remind a rather anti-establishment mindset what it is that they criticise!

Pong

Interesting idea;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39364885

With the internet, do we actually need retail banks at all?

Why can't the BOE/government offer a simple deposit account service for us plebs?

TwistedFireStopper

FrancisUrquhart said:

A Scotland Yard spokesman said research into other names the attacker used was ongoing, adding: “Khalid Masood is not at this early stage believed to be his birth name.”

Martin Brunt On Sky a couple of hours ago said that he knew that he had an English sounding name, and was a convert to Islam.

MarkSenior

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

FrancisUrquhart

TwistedFireStopper said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A Scotland Yard spokesman said research into other names the attacker used was ongoing, adding: “Khalid Masood is not at this early stage believed to be his birth name.”

Martin Brunt On Sky a couple of hours ago said that he knew that he had an English sounding name, and was a convert to Islam.

Perhaps he really was locally known as dave in his early years.

DavidBrackenbury

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

dr_spyn

BBC mentioned a controlled explosion at Birdcage Walk about 15 mins ago. Might be something or nothing.

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

BBC mentioned a controlled explosion at Birdcage Walk about 15 mins ago. Might be something or nothing.

Bbc bod on twitter report that MET press office saying was "routine"

ThreeQuidder

dr_spyn said:

BBC mentioned a controlled explosion at Birdcage Walk about 15 mins ago. Might be something or nothing.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/845011707063943168

Presumably the same thing.

MarkSenior

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

ooppss Con 125

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

Same as British Home Office officers operating in Calais at the moment.

They are also policing exit from France, not entry.

The loony Brexit proposal was to place Ireland within the UK border.

I don't think that's what was meant at all, but what you're saying is then that there's no reason there couldn't be UK immigration officials operating in Irish airports pre-clearing those who're heading to the UK?

There's no reason they couldn't pre-clear people heading for the UK, but that is not what was proposed. What was proposed was pre-clearing people entering Ireland, so that an open border could operate between the north and the south.

Surely that would entail Irish migration officers in British airports allowing them to pre-clear people entering Ireland. Just as there are French officers in Dover?

nunu

FrancisUrquhart said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A Scotland Yard spokesman said research into other names the attacker used was ongoing, adding: “Khalid Masood is not at this early stage believed to be his birth name.”

Martin Brunt On Sky a couple of hours ago said that he knew that he had an English sounding name, and was a convert to Islam.

Perhaps he really was locally known as dave in his early years.

The zealotry of the convert....

Sunil_Prasannan

FrancisUrquhart said:

A Scotland Yard spokesman said research into other names the attacker used was ongoing, adding: “Khalid Masood is not at this early stage believed to be his birth name.”

Dave?

HYUFD

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Philip_Thompson

Carolus_Rex said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Without diminishing the tragedies for the families affected by yesterday's events I'm glad that there won't be a Thursday by-election thread caused by the attack. I suspect that if one or more had been caused then the Jo Cox precedent would probably have been followed but I'm very glad that was not necessary.

I'm not sure how to respond to that because it does in fact raise a serious point. The Jo Cox precedent should be no such thing. Elections should be contested no matter how distressing the circumstances that caused them. That was the case in the 80s ad 90s (Anthony Berry, Ian Gow) and it still should be. But the only way to test a precedent like that doesn't bear thinking about. So what to do? I think it needs at least two of the major political parties to say,BEFORE it needs saying, that they will contest a seat made vacant by the murder of an MP, no matter what.

The problem with that is that it creates a darkly perverse incentive to murder. Slim majority and an unpopular government? Kill a few marginal MPs and you've taken down the government.

DavidBrackenbury

MarkSenior said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

ooppss Con 125

That's better, or the candidate would have had to have a word with the ten electors who signed the nomination form! Not that they had to vote for him or her...

dr_spyn

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

BBC mentioned a controlled explosion at Birdcage Walk about 15 mins ago. Might be something or nothing.

Bbc bod on twitter report that MET press office saying was "routine"

Met carries out routine controlled explosion, odd choice of words. .

Carolus_Rex

Philip_Thompson said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Without diminishing the tragedies for the families affected by yesterday's events I'm glad that there won't be a Thursday by-election thread caused by the attack. I suspect that if one or more had been caused then the Jo Cox precedent would probably have been followed but I'm very glad that was not necessary.

I'm not sure how to respond to that because it does in fact raise a serious point. The Jo Cox precedent should be no such thing. Elections should be contested no matter how distressing the circumstances that caused them. That was the case in the 80s ad 90s (Anthony Berry, Ian Gow) and it still should be. But the only way to test a precedent like that doesn't bear thinking about. So what to do? I think it needs at least two of the major political parties to say,BEFORE it needs saying, that they will contest a seat made vacant by the murder of an MP, no matter what.

The problem with that is that it creates a darkly perverse incentive to murder. Slim majority and an unpopular government? Kill a few marginal MPs and you've taken down the government.

You're probably right. Maybe just everyone agreeing in a general way that democracy is above sanctimonious bullshit will have to do.

welshowl

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

You sure? I've not done it but I thought the deal was fly to Dublin/Shannon from the UK and pre clear US immigration and customs at the Irish airport so you land in the US as effectively a domestic passenger. If that's actually how it operates surely that's not so much policing exit from Ireland as entry to the US?

Edit: on second reading I see what you mean.

However seems odd the Irish can concede the principle of US immigration operating but not the UK. Their right of course, and we could've reciprocated by having Irish officers at Heathrow as a CRA border force, but if they don't want that well that's their option.

Sunil_Prasannan

MarkSenior said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

ooppss Con 125

LibDem bias!

williamglenn

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

You sure? I've not done it but I thought the deal was fly to Dublin/Shannon from the UK and pre clear US immigration and customs at the Irish airport so you land in the US as effectively a domestic passenger. If that's actually how it operates surely that's not so much policing exit from Ireland as entry to the US?

Yes, that's what I meant, albeit clumsily expressed. The point was to contrast it with the Brexit proposal which was to treat people arriving in Ireland as it they were arriving in the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/09/britain-to-push-post-brexit-uk-immigration-controls-back-to-irish-border

DavidBrackenbury

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

ooppss Con 125

LibDem bias!

Evening Sunil, hope you are in good shape. How is the railway voyaging? You should write a book. PBers would snap it up...

calum

https://twitter.com/RepMcGovern/status/844991898850877443

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jezza's mates....

Martin McGuinness was "not a terrorist" but a "freedom fighter", Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has claimed.

I don't know why he'd even bother to clarify that - everyone knows that'd be his position.

kle4

Pong said:

Interesting idea;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39364885

With the internet, do we actually need retail banks at all?

Why can't the BOE/government offer a simple deposit account service for us plebs?

Swanky parliament they have there, I like it - they actually have arm rests, too.

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

kle4

Speaking of railway journeys, I'm actually flying from Bristol to Newcastle tomorrow for the express purpose of avoiding the rail. Not that I dislike train journeys as such - get a table and its the best way to travel - but it is so bloody long to get up north! I don't know how people survive days long journeys on the things.

DavidBrackenbury

kle4 said:

Speaking of railway journeys, I'm actually flying from Bristol to Newcastle tomorrow for the express purpose of avoiding the rail. Not that I dislike train journeys as such - get a table and its the best way to travel - but it is so bloody long to get up north! I don't know how people survive days long journeys on the things.

Would have preferred to take the train on a trip to Rotterdam this week, but the fare was about £170 return and Sleazyjet to Amsterdam was about £70 (+€20 for the Dutch train leg).

Sunil_Prasannan

DavidBrackenbury said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

ooppss Con 125

LibDem bias!

Evening Sunil, hope you are in good shape. How is the railway voyaging? You should write a book. PBers would snap it up...

Good thanks, hope you are too. Back to work after seven weeks, but I didn't waste them, see my post here:
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1475739/#Comment_1475739

As for writing a book? I fear TSE would brand me a pound shop Portillo

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

Perhaps not the best region for him, Le Pen has a bigger first round lead in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur than any other region of France, she is on 35.5% there, Macron is on 20% and Fillon 19%.

In the runoff Macron scrapes home by 51% to 49% for Le Pen

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/public-affairs/Enquete-CEVIPOF/Enquete-CEVIPOF-Mars2017/rapport-ipsos-cevipof-paca-mars-2017.pdf

DavidBrackenbury

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

ooppss Con 125

LibDem bias!

Evening Sunil, hope you are in good shape. How is the railway voyaging? You should write a book. PBers would snap it up...

Good thanks, hope you are too. Back to work after seven weeks, but I didn't waste them, see my post here:
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1475739/#Comment_1475739

As for writing a book? I fear TSE would brand me a pound shop Portillo

He may, but wouldn't you be more the latter day John Betjeman??

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

You reckon that adds, what, 5% to Le Pen?

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

Perhaps not the best region for him, Le Pen has a bigger first round lead in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur than any other region of France, she is on 35.5% there, Macron is on 20% and Fillon 19%.

In the runoff Macron scrapes home by 51% to 49% for Le Pen

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/public-affairs/Enquete-CEVIPOF/Enquete-CEVIPOF-Mars2017/rapport-ipsos-cevipof-paca-mars-2017.pdf

Well he must feel at home there.

GIN1138

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jezza's mates....

Martin McGuinness was "not a terrorist" but a "freedom fighter", Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has claimed.

Well I'm sure that will be comforting to know for all the people shot and blown up during the IRA's campaign of terror...

rcs1000

chestnut said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

So much for the loony idea that somehow the policing of post Brexit EU travel to Ireland could be dumped entirely on Dublin.

https://twitter.com/CloughOlive/status/844976333297987585

So US immigration officials can operate in Irish airports but British ones can't?

Policing exit from Ireland, not entry.

Same as British Home Office officers operating in Calais at the moment.

They are also policing exit from France, not entry.

The loony Brexit proposal was to place Ireland within the UK border.

Net migration to Northern Ireland was less than 2,500 per year between 2000 and 2014, and the reduced right to settle, claim benefits, take up work etc will most likely take that number down, very possibly causing migration displacement to the Irish Republic.

The Irish border as a migration access point is fairly irrelevant.

The bigger issue with the border will be the flow of goods if we go to tariffs.

It is worth remembering that - for example - there is no free market in certain agricultural products between Norway and the EU. This does not mean that there are checks on the border, the asssumption is that people will behave honestly. (And, being Norway and Sweden, people by and large do.)

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

For a long time, Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur was where all the elected FN politicians were, and back in the 1990s, they had control of the most of the local government in Avignion. Marion Marechel Le Pen is an MP from the P-A-C region.

Sunil_Prasannan

kle4 said:

Speaking of railway journeys, I'm actually flying from Bristol to Newcastle tomorrow for the express purpose of avoiding the rail. Not that I dislike train journeys as such - get a table and its the best way to travel - but it is so bloody long to get up north! I don't know how people survive days long journeys on the things.

I went to Newcastle Airport via the Metro last week, and saw the Bristol flight on the departure screens. I also happened to see an Airbus A400 military turboprop take-off.

Longest UK train ride (without changing) for me was Leuchars to King's Cross southbound, about 5 years back, all of six hours.

isam

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Almost certainly.

The only solution is to be tougher w muslims than is politically possible, and fair to the vast majority, so there will be more and more incidents across Europe. It is a nightmare of our own making with no practical solution

GIN1138

SeanT said:

I trust everyone is preparing for "the biggest protest march in modern British history", against Brexit, this weekend

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/stop-brexit-campaign-biggest-uk-biggest-protest-march

It's going to dwarf that silly Iraq thing. Possibly 3 million people? Five?

I'm worried London will run out of water.

Will you be attending Sean? You could be our eyes and ears "on the ground"

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

rcs1000

I will make a forecast. The next five years will see fewer (probably far fewer) deaths in Europe from Islamic terrorists than the past five.

Two reasons:

1. Before 2001, we didn't take Islamic terrorism seriously. It's taken a long time to re-orient the security services so they're pointing at Muslim fundamentalists, but now they are. This means that large scale incidents get harder and harder to organise.

2. The Saudis (that'll be our "allies") have funded practically Islamic terrorism. It is they that have spread Wahabbi Islam (as opposed to Sufi and other more moderate sects) by spending money on Mosques and sponsoring schools. The Saudi money is drying up.

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

Perhaps not the best region for him, Le Pen has a bigger first round lead in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur than any other region of France, she is on 35.5% there, Macron is on 20% and Fillon 19%.

In the runoff Macron scrapes home by 51% to 49% for Le Pen

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/public-affairs/Enquete-CEVIPOF/Enquete-CEVIPOF-Mars2017/rapport-ipsos-cevipof-paca-mars-2017.pdf

Well he must feel at home there.

I imagine Provence is probably more akin to his tastes than the Cotes d'Azur

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

I will make a forecast. The next five years will see fewer (probably far fewer) deaths in Europe from Islamic terrorists than the past five.

Two reasons:

1. Before 2001, we didn't take Islamic terrorism seriously. It's taken a long time to re-orient the security services so they're pointing at Muslim fundamentalists, but now they are. This means that large scale incidents get harder and harder to organise.

2. The Saudis (that'll be our "allies") have funded practically Islamic terrorism. It is they that have spread Wahabbi Islam (as opposed to Sufi and other more moderate sects) by spending money on Mosques and sponsoring schools. The Saudi money is drying up.

I remember having a conversation with a good Muslim friend of mine about point #2 nearly 10 years ago...he said it was a huge problem in his home country of Pakistan and should be taken very seriously.

Sunil_Prasannan

DavidBrackenbury said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

MarkSenior said:

There was a by election in the same Blackburn ward on Dec 15th last , it was an easy Labour hold

Lab 435
UKIP 187
Con

What? Con actually zero? Not our best ground, but still...

ooppss Con 125

LibDem bias!

Evening Sunil, hope you are in good shape. How is the railway voyaging? You should write a book. PBers would snap it up...

Good thanks, hope you are too. Back to work after seven weeks, but I didn't waste them, see my post here:
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1475739/#Comment_1475739

As for writing a book? I fear TSE would brand me a pound shop Portillo

He may, but wouldn't you be more the latter day John Betjeman??

Perhaps! But I do have a huge collection of photos of all the stations I've visited, as well as photos taken during each journey (most blurry, however!). Also took the time to visit Liverpool waterfront (Three Muses), Newcastle's Tyne Bridge, the Blackpool Tram, Southport Pier, The Nationalist Railway Museum (York), Cleethorpes and Scarborough seafronts, and Berwick's Royal Border Bridge. And that's just this year

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

Almost all the foreign money coming in to subsidise Islam in the UK (and without which most Mosques would close) comes from Saudi Arabia and goes to Wahabbi and Deobandi Mosques. Until that money is cut off, one way or another, there will be problems.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

For a long time, Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur was where all the elected FN politicians were, and back in the 1990s, they had control of the most of the local government in Avignion. Marion Marechel Le Pen is an MP from the P-A-C region.

If you've been to the banlieues of Marseilles (as I have, where I very nearly got knifed to death trying to score heroin (yes yes, I'm a selfish wanker)) then you begin to understand why.

Yeah, but did you manage to score?

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

Almost all the foreign money coming in to subsidise Islam in the UK (and without which most Mosques would close) comes from Saudi Arabia and goes to Wahabbi and Deobandi Mosques. Until that money is cut off, one way or another, there will be problems.

See my point below...

glw

FrancisUrquhart said:

I remember having a conversation with a good Muslim friend of mine about point #2 nearly 10 years ago...he said it was a huge problem in his home country of Pakistan and should be taken very seriously.

The problem is that those sorts of view are now widespeard in Pakistan, so cutting off Saudi money isn't going to do much as the damage is already done.

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

Almost all the foreign money coming in to subsidise Islam in the UK (and without which most Mosques would close) comes from Saudi Arabia and goes to Wahabbi and Deobandi Mosques. Until that money is cut off, one way or another, there will be problems.

See my point below...

I think we're in violent agreement. :-)

FrancisUrquhart

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I remember having a conversation with a good Muslim friend of mine about point #2 nearly 10 years ago...he said it was a huge problem in his home country of Pakistan and should be taken very seriously.

The problem is that those sorts of view are now widespeard in Pakistan, so cutting off Saudi money isn't going to do much as the damage is already done.

Sorry I probably didn't make it clear, he was saying 10 years ago that he was worried about the same sort of thing happening here.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

Almost all the foreign money coming in to subsidise Islam in the UK (and without which most Mosques would close) comes from Saudi Arabia and goes to Wahabbi and Deobandi Mosques. Until that money is cut off, one way or another, there will be problems.

Indeed. And Wahhabism is barely distinguishable from Nazism.

Imagine if, in 1930s Britain, we allowed Hitler to fund special schools for millions of German emigres in the UK, where they were taught quasi-Nazi doctrines.

I mean, we just wouldn't fucking do that. So why allow the mosques?

Stop The Funding.

30 years ago, there were virtually no Wahabbi or Deobandi Mosques in the UK - it was like 2 out of 190. Now they are more than half the number and account for all of our homegrown terrorists.

We need to stop being squeamish about pissing off the Saudis. No Wahabbism (and trust me, there's no one other than the Saudis funding these Mosques), means virtually no radicalised local Muslims.

isam

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Almost certainly.

The only solution is to be tougher w muslims than is politically possible, and fair to the vast majority, so there will be more and more incidents across Europe. It is a nightmare of our own making with no practical solution

I read the Caldwell book. It's very good, tho possibly too "optimistic" - given events since

I still haven't finished it! Every few pages I have kind of LSD like feelings where I think 'this can't really be happening' before blinking and realising it is, with a sense of doom!

In my original post I meant to write 'and unfair to the vast majority of muslims' by the way

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

I will make a forecast. The next five years will see fewer (probably far fewer) deaths in Europe from Islamic terrorists than the past five.

Two reasons:

1. Before 2001, we didn't take Islamic terrorism seriously. It's taken a long time to re-orient the security services so they're pointing at Muslim fundamentalists, but now they are. This means that large scale incidents get harder and harder to organise.

2. The Saudis (that'll be our "allies") have funded practically Islamic terrorism. It is they that have spread Wahabbi Islam (as opposed to Sufi and other more moderate sects) by spending money on Mosques and sponsoring schools. The Saudi money is drying up.

I hope you're right, but the worry now is that radicalism in Western Islam is so entrenched it is self-starting and self-motivating. The seed has been sown.

We need to crush ISIS. Stop any more Saudi bullshit. Then come down VERY hard on halal, FGM, honour killings, imams, the niqab: just make daily life much more uncomfortable for the more fundamentalist of Muslims. The evidence is: with enough pressure, they move, in the end.

Right now we are STILL bending over backwards to make life EASIER for them.

It's not self funding, because people who follow medieval Muslim practices don't make much money*. These Mosques would not exist without the Saudi government.

* The prohibition on interest pretty much guarantees you're not going to make it in business.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

I will make a forecast. The next five years will see fewer (probably far fewer) deaths in Europe from Islamic terrorists than the past five.

Two reasons:

1. Before 2001, we didn't take Islamic terrorism seriously. It's taken a long time to re-orient the security services so they're pointing at Muslim fundamentalists, but now they are. This means that large scale incidents get harder and harder to organise.

2. The Saudis (that'll be our "allies") have funded practically Islamic terrorism. It is they that have spread Wahabbi Islam (as opposed to Sufi and other more moderate sects) by spending money on Mosques and sponsoring schools. The Saudi money is drying up.

I hope you're right, but the worry now is that radicalism in Western Islam is so entrenched it is self-starting and self-motivating. The seed has been sown.

We need to crush ISIS. Stop any more Saudi bullshit. Then come down VERY hard on halal, FGM, honour killings, imams, the niqab: just make daily life much more uncomfortable for the more fundamentalist of Muslims. The evidence is: with enough pressure, they move, in the end.

Right now we are STILL bending over backwards to make life EASIER for them.

FGM is GBH/ABH and any child who has it, the parents are clearly accessories.

isam

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

Almost all the foreign money coming in to subsidise Islam in the UK (and without which most Mosques would close) comes from Saudi Arabia and goes to Wahabbi and Deobandi Mosques. Until that money is cut off, one way or another, there will be problems.

Indeed. And Wahhabism is barely distinguishable from Nazism.

Imagine if, in 1930s Britain, we allowed Hitler to fund special schools for millions of German emigres in the UK, where they were taught quasi-Nazi doctrines.

I mean, we just wouldn't fucking do that. So why allow the mosques?

Stop The Funding.

https://youtu.be/0wCicQ7NtxU

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

I will make a forecast. The next five years will see fewer (probably far fewer) deaths in Europe from Islamic terrorists than the past five.

Two reasons:

1. Before 2001, we didn't take Islamic terrorism seriously. It's taken a long time to re-orient the security services so they're pointing at Muslim fundamentalists, but now they are. This means that large scale incidents get harder and harder to organise.

2. The Saudis (that'll be our "allies") have funded practically Islamic terrorism. It is they that have spread Wahabbi Islam (as opposed to Sufi and other more moderate sects) by spending money on Mosques and sponsoring schools. The Saudi money is drying up.

I hope you're right, but the worry now is that radicalism in Western Islam is so entrenched it is self-starting and self-motivating. The seed has been sown.

We need to crush ISIS. Stop any more Saudi bullshit. Then come down VERY hard on halal, FGM, honour killings, imams, the niqab: just make daily life much more uncomfortable for the more fundamentalist of Muslims. The evidence is: with enough pressure, they move, in the end.

Right now we are STILL bending over backwards to make life EASIER for them.

FGM is GBH/ABH and any child who has it, the parents are clearly accessories.

Careful Surbiton will be out again claiming nothing to do with Islam...doesn't happen outside a tiny number of countries....and a tiny number of hardcore Jewish nutters also do it so its a score draw on that front...

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

I will make a forecast. The next five years will see fewer (probably far fewer) deaths in Europe from Islamic terrorists than the past five.

Two reasons:

1. Before 2001, we didn't take Islamic terrorism seriously. It's taken a long time to re-orient the security services so they're pointing at Muslim fundamentalists, but now they are. This means that large scale incidents get harder and harder to organise.

2. The Saudis (that'll be our "allies") have funded practically Islamic terrorism. It is they that have spread Wahabbi Islam (as opposed to Sufi and other more moderate sects) by spending money on Mosques and sponsoring schools. The Saudi money is drying up.

I hope you're right, but the worry now is that radicalism in Western Islam is so entrenched it is self-starting and self-motivating. The seed has been sown.

We need to crush ISIS. Stop any more Saudi bullshit. Then come down VERY hard on halal, FGM, honour killings, imams, the niqab: just make daily life much more uncomfortable for the more fundamentalist of Muslims. The evidence is: with enough pressure, they move, in the end.

Right now we are STILL bending over backwards to make life EASIER for them.

FGM is GBH/ABH and any child who has it, the parents are clearly accessories.

Careful Surbiton will be out again claiming nothing to do with Islam...doesn't happen outside a tiny number of countries....and a tiny number of hardcore Jewish nutters also do it so its a score draw on that front...

FGM is not confined solely to Muslims (Ethopian Christians do it do), but I would guess the vast majority of adherents in the UK are Muslims.

Barnesian

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

Almost all the foreign money coming in to subsidise Islam in the UK (and without which most Mosques would close) comes from Saudi Arabia and goes to Wahabbi and Deobandi Mosques. Until that money is cut off, one way or another, there will be problems.

Indeed. And Wahhabism is barely distinguishable from Nazism.

Imagine if, in 1930s Britain, we allowed Hitler to fund special schools for millions of German emigres in the UK, where they were taught quasi-Nazi doctrines.

I mean, we just wouldn't fucking do that. So why allow the mosques?

Stop The Funding.

30 years ago, there were virtually no Wahabbi or Deobandi Mosques in the UK - it was like 2 out of 190. Now they are more than half the number and account for all of our homegrown terrorists.

We need to stop being squeamish about pissing off the Saudis. No Wahabbism (and trust me, there's no one other than the Saudis funding these Mosques), means virtually no radicalised local Muslims.

Agree with that 100%

glw

rcs1000 said:

FGM is GBH/ABH and any child who has it, the parents are clearly accessories.

We don't seem to be doing very well at dealing with it. Has anybody been successfully prosecuted yet?

Philip_Thompson

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting polling from Ipsos breaking down which French regions Macron leads in and which Le Pen leads in

Macron

Brittany
Paris and Ile de France
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Pays de la Loire

Le Pen

Auvergne-Rhone-Alps
Bourgogne-Franche-Comte
Grand Est
Hauts-de-France
Normandy
Occitanie
Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur

Tied

Centre-Val de Loire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Roger lives in Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur.

The south of France is pretty much the most rightwing part of the country. I imagine the Nice attack has only reinforced this.

We are probably headed to a huge clash of cultures: versus internal Islam. It's going to be hideous, and violent.

Maajid Nawaz thinks that until there is a clash of cultures within Islam itself and the modernizers win there will always be problems.

Almost all the foreign money coming in to subsidise Islam in the UK (and without which most Mosques would close) comes from Saudi Arabia and goes to Wahabbi and Deobandi Mosques. Until that money is cut off, one way or another, there will be problems.

Indeed. And Wahhabism is barely distinguishable from Nazism.

Imagine if, in 1930s Britain, we allowed Hitler to fund special schools for millions of German emigres in the UK, where they were taught quasi-Nazi doctrines.

I mean, we just wouldn't fucking do that. So why allow the mosques?

Stop The Funding.

30 years ago, there were virtually no Wahabbi or Deobandi Mosques in the UK - it was like 2 out of 190. Now they are more than half the number and account for all of our homegrown terrorists.

We need to stop being squeamish about pissing off the Saudis. No Wahabbism (and trust me, there's no one other than the Saudis funding these Mosques), means virtually no radicalised local Muslims.

Why do the Saudis fund the Mosques here and elsewhere? Seems a bizarre use of their money.

Fat_Steve

SeanT said:

I trust everyone is preparing for "the biggest protest march in modern British history", against Brexit, this weekend

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/stop-brexit-campaign-biggest-uk-biggest-protest-march

It's going to dwarf that silly Iraq thing. Possibly 3 million people? Five?

I'm worried London will run out of water.

The posters I've seen say "no to brexit and racism". Which is a bit like "no to Stalinism and broccoli".

FrancisUrquhart

London terror attacker Khalid Masood, 52, once stabbed a man in the FACE and changed from Kent schoolboy Adrian Elms to maniac who launched car and knife rampage through Westminster.

Again, how the f##k did this guy ever get clearance to be an English teacher.