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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon di

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon did and denied Dave a majority in 2010

Tony Blair’s remarks that “he could have given Cameron a run for his money” have raised a few eyebrows this morning. It’s opened up an intriguing “what if” scenario. It’s easy to look back in rose-tinted spectacles, and a number of commentators such as John Rentoul have an interest in keeping the Blairite flame alive. However as I remember it he had to go:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    'Maybe you should ask David Cameron which one he would rather have had as an opponent?' rentoul rt
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tony Blair seems to have forgotten why he stood down as Prime Minister. The Labour party wouldn't have been able to function effectively with him remaining as leader.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    If we ALL know one thing, it's that Blairs capacity to delude himself and believe precisely what he wants is truly endless. Mere 'details' like evidence and facts are trifles to be scorned where he is concerned.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited April 2013
    Blair 3 huge GE victories - consigned Tories to long period of impotent opposition 1997-2010. Made it very difficult for Hague, Howard and Cameron to amass enough votes and seats for a Tory majority.

    Blair was the most formidable opponent of the Tory Party since Atlee and Wilson, and yet Labour are trying to airbrush him out of their history.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    For once, Mr Manson, I agree. What Tony Blair neglects to mention is how he would actually made it to a GE in 2010 - when the Tories ditched Thatcher and replaced her with Major they got a few more years, and unexpectedly another term. When Labour ditched Blair they too got a few more years - and denied the Tories a majority. I wonder whether Blair might have been tempted to sack Brown post Northern Rock - then who knows what would have happened. Looks like Blair was starting to suffer from the delusions that afflicted late-Thatcher too....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited April 2013
    Blair would have wiped the floor with Clegg and Cameron in the debates, but he was seriously damaged goods by 2007 and had to go. If he had stayed the government would have fallen before 2010 and labour would have had a fullk-scale civil war the like of which the Tories are in danger of having should thery lose in 2015.
    In other news, some interesting facts about Iceland:
    1. Beer was illegal until 1989.
    2. Eight out of 10 Icelanders believe in elves.
    3. Television used to be heavily controlled by the state – there were no programmes on Thursdays and throughout July (I love the randomness of that).
    4. We invaded Iceland in 1940 without a shot being fired.
    It’s a seriously great place.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Carola said:

    'Maybe you should ask David Cameron which one he would rather have had as an opponent?' rentoul rt

    Cammie has a bit of 'thing' about Blair as the likes of Rentoul knows full well.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Difficult to disagree with Henry here. One of his best contributions in a while.
  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    It was Clegg who denied Cameron a majority, not Brown.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Blair certainly would have done a bit better than Brown IMO, especially in the south-east and East Anglia.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Interesting piece, Mr. Manson.

    We need to consider a few things:
    1) How good or bad was the result for both parties?
    2) How much of this was down to blue factors?
    3) How much was down to red factors?
    4) How would things have gone for Labour if Blair had stayed.

    1) The result is a bit debatable. On the one hand, the Conservatives won about 100 extra seats, which is a fantastic shift, but their starting base was so low that although clearly the largest party in Parliament they lacked a majority.

    Compared to some polling this was very poor and well below expectations. However, the electoral system favoured Labour.

    For Labour, it was a significant comeback, and although a loss it was more of a fighting retreat than a rout.

    2) It's easy to forget the numerous cock-ups the Conservatives made early on in 2010. Whilst a general direction and some specifics are needed pre-election they went into too much detail on policies that didn't seem to stand up, and if they did they lacked the lines to support them. Some masterly inactivity could've seen them get a majority. This had nothing to do with the leadership of Labour.

    3) Labour had a good campaign. Admittedly, they were aided by a delinquent media that considered "We have a deficit reduction plan" to be a magical incantation that warranted no further inquiry (such as "What is it?"), but they nevertheless were united and played the media game (in both the positive and negative sense) better than the blues.

    Brown, wrongly in my view, was still seen my some as saviour (despite landing us in the mess) and economic sage, and almost certainly got a hefty Scottish bonus (hard to say if that particular factor would've occurred if he'd been Chancellor but at war with PM Blair).

    4) Blair was a great campaigner but everyone was bloody sick of his utterly unrepentent attitude and his immense ego. I think that would've harmed Labour considerably, and that Cameron probably would have benefited. Cameron and Brown were very different creatures, but Blair would've looked like Cameron + 10 years and a financial crisis + Iraq.

    I think Blair's delusions have continued after his departure from office.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @edmundintokyo

    Thanks for the widget. Much appreciated - is there a way to make it reverse the post order?

    I've been reading PB using the back office list of Oldest First.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    Blair would have wiped the floor with Clegg and Cameron in the debates,

    Cameron yes. Cammie would probably have just gushed about how great Blair was and how he was his biggest fan.

    I may surprise you but I don't think Clegg would have been such a pushover. Clegg had that new leader 'shine' going for him and his emulation of Blair is far more adroit precisely because it isn't so clunkingly obvious like Cammie is.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OT. (Sorry). Is there any possibility that the Daily Mail who seem to forever demand people take responsibility might take some for the latest epidemic of measles? The UK are now second only to Rumania for the number of cases of measles. Those responsible should be charged with manslaughter if there are any deaths starting with The Mail, Dr Wakefield and Julie Kirkbride
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited April 2013
    fpt, for anybody following the racing

    *Betting Post*

    Good day at the office yesterday. Much more difficult cards today - a lot of races are either too easy or far too difficult. Here are my suggestions - small stakes throughout.

    Aintree:
    2.00 My Tent Or Yours 4/9
    2.30 River Creek 6/4
    3.05 Sprinter Sacre 4/11
    4.15 At Fishers Cross 6/4
    4.50 Meister Eckhart 9/1
    Prima Porta 22/1
    Bar de Ligne 40/1

    Sedgefield:
    2.10 Glasson Lad 9/2
    3.20 Kings Chorister 7/2

    Dundalk:
    6.50 More Questions 17/2
    7.20 Rigid Rock 13/2
    8.20 Tennessee Widcat 7/1

    Wolverhampton:
    9.00 Exit Clause 6/1

    My regular followers will know just how averse I am to backing odds on, but I have no hesitation in taking the 4/11 Sprinter Sacre. In my opinion, it should be 1/10.

    The three suggestions for the 4.50 can be mixed and matched. The place value in this race is very good. I have done all three each way, with the biggest stake on Meister Eckhart. I've also done the reverse forecasts and a tricast - for footling amounts though.

    Good luck and enjoy the racing, especiially Sprinter Sacre. He's a bit special.
  • MBoy said:

    It was Clegg who denied Cameron a majority, not Brown.

    Correct, and it was Kennedy, not Howard, who ate into Labour's vote in 2005.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    FPT:

    Thank goodness we've moved on from "families" and dropped the tree

    Yes, you won't need any of that PR detox stuff now. Unless Cammie pulls back from the brink after a hammering in May you'd best get used to being the nasty party again. When you add incompetence to make that heady vintage tory brew you are not going to like where that takes you. As Major, IDS, Hague and Howard will all testify.

    Though you will at least make the Kippers very happy. So there's that. ;)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Yes, Henry is spot-on in this article. Blair was pretty toxic by the time he resigned, most of all in his own party.

    In any case, the unpopularity of Brown has been exaggerated. He was a lot less unpopular than he deserved to be. I still think he could have won a majority if he'd called an election in spring 2009 - when he was still the saviour of the world, right? - and if, at the same time, he'd been honest about the challenges, as Darling, Mandelson and every one else with half a brain were urging. But he seemed to have become hard-wired for dishonesty, or self-delusion, or whatever other psychological problem caused him to deny that money would have to be saved in the light of the massive fall in tax revenues.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Gaming: how to lose friends and alienate people, by Microsoft:

    http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/123098-Microsoft-Exec-on-Always-Online-Consoles-Deal-With-it

    There are rumours the Xbox720/Durango/Nextbox will feature always-on internet (for added fun, the Kinect means there would also be an always on camera). Not confirmed or denied, as yet.

    The PS4 will *not* need an internet connection to work, and this would be a crazy move by Microsoft. Saying things like the below is just stupid:

    "Sorry, I don't get the drama around having an "always on" console," he tweeted earlier today. "Every device now is "always on". That's the world we live in. #dealwithit"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @HenryManson

    "The Labour Party itself was verging on bankruptcy as a result of Blair and his circle relying heavily on a series of huge loans for the 2005 election that had to be repaid, rather than cut the cloth accordingly"

    There's something ironic about a stalwart Labour-man viewing this as a fundamental error...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Let's hope the new Pope follows through with this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22043312
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    MBoy said:

    It was Clegg who denied Cameron a majority, not Brown.

    Clegg also harvested votes from many ex-Labour folk, such as myself and a number of others I know.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Even the greatest of election winners lose the support of voters and party members over time. Thatcher and Blair were both assassinated by their own parties before they had the chance to run for a fourth successive term.

    Both were replaced with lesser substitutes who initially benefitted from succeeding a winner. Brown's performance against Cameron in 2010 was uplifted by the Blair stardust, just as Major's was by Thatcher's in 1992.

    Brown was lucky that he did not run a full second term like Major. The bloodbath in 2015 would have made the Tories defeat in 1997 feel like light summer rain on a picnic.

    Blair, like Thatcher, won his elections because his personal appeal reached well beyond the boundaries of his party. His shine may have become tarnished with age but a little bit of buffing up would have shown that he was made of precious metal.

    With Brown and Ed Miliband their personal appeal is narrower than their parties. Whatever polling lift they might have achieved was temporary. The dull shine is gilt: apply a little pressure and the base metal is quickly revealed.



  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Roger said:

    OT. (Sorry). Is there any possibility that the Daily Mail who seem to forever demand people take responsibility might take some for the latest epidemic of measles? The UK are now second only to Rumania for the number of cases of measles. Those responsible should be charged with manslaughter if there are any deaths starting with The Mail, Dr Wakefield and Julie Kirkbride

    Well said Roger. It's a relief there have been no deaths yet (AFAIK) but at the current rate of infection it's only a matter of time. Schools should refuse to take a child which has not been immunised/vaccinated - their parents are unbelievably selfish and downright negligent.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    There are rumours the Xbox720/Durango/Nextbox will feature always-on internet

    I gather from those who work in that area that the SimCity always online launch was (and I believe this is the correct terminology used) a complete and utter clusterf**k.

    Doesn't sound too wise if they are going down that path I have to say since EA are hardly a minnow in the gaming software industry and they couldn't make it work.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    fpt, for anybody following the racing

    *Betting Post*

    Good day at the office yesterday. Much more difficult cards today - a lot of races are either too easy or far too difficult. Here are my suggestions - small stakes throughout.

    Aintree:
    2.00 My Tent Or Yours 4/9
    2.30 River Creek 6/4
    3.05 Sprinter Sacre 4/11
    4.15 At Fishers Cross 6/4
    4.50 Meister Eckhart 9/1
    Prima Porta 22/1
    Bar de Ligne 40/1

    Sedgefield:
    2.10 Glasson Lad 9/2
    3.20 Kings Chorister 7/2

    Dundalk:
    6.50 More Questions 17/2
    7.20 Rigid Rock 13/2
    8.20 Tennessee Widcat 7/1

    Wolverhampton:
    9.00 Exit Clause 6/1

    My regular followers will know just how averse I am to backing odds on, but I have no hesitation in taking the 4/11 Sprinter Sacre. In my opinion, it should be 1/10.

    The three suggestions for the 4.50 can be mixed and matched. The place value in this race is very good. I have done all three each way, with the biggest stake on Meister Eckhart. I've also done the reverse forecasts and a tricast - for footling amounts though.

    Good luck and enjoy the racing, especiially Sprinter Sacre. He's a bit special.

    How do forecast bet odds work ? I've gone £15 on the nose for S Sacre, and a fiver on the straight forecast with Cue card. (S Sacre then Cue card)

    Odds are 1/3 and 7/1.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pork, that's a quite accurate assessment.

    Not a PC gamer but from what I've read it was absolutely awful. The game doesn't need always online, the claim it had to be (online calculations needed for the game to work) was proven false when someone cracked the game so it could be played offline, there were numerous delays, saved data was lost.

    It was a textbook case of how not to do it.

    Even if all Microsoft's online infrastructure always worked perfectly that wouldn't be of use to millions of gamers who have dodgy internet connections.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Brown's performance against Cameron in 2010 was uplifted by the Blair stardust, just as Major's was by Thatcher's in 1992.

    If you are joking, very droll. If not then I suggest you adjust your spin, Seth O Logue.

    It was Blair who needed Brown in 2005. That gave rise to the very funny and less than convincing Blair Brown chummy 'double act' during the election campaign and on the PPBs.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT

    More good news for George and the UK economy

    Car manufacturing and sales continue to go grow in the UK and contract in the Eurozone countries. More evidence of a step by step differential recovery in the UK.

    New UK March car registrations came in above forecasts, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) announced Friday.

    Compared to the same month a year ago, registration numbers were up nearly two per cent, bucking the trend seen in the European Union.

    March is generally considered to be a strong month for new registrations because it is when new number plates are released.

    It marked the 13th consecutive month of growth, with volumes the highest since 2010 when the Scrappage Incentive Scheme supported the market.

    The data showed that 394,806 cars were registered with the new 13-plate, up 5.9% compared to a year ago, driven by demand for private registrations, which climbed 7.8% year-on-year, and were up 11.2% in the first quarter.


    SeanT should note that he has contributed personally to this growth:

    the Mini segment again showed the strongest growth in March, up 56.5%,
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    RT @TelegraphWorld: Baroness Ashton will be paid £400,000 by the EU to do nothing via @BrunoBrussels http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/9971786/Baroness-Ashton-will-be-paid-400000-by-the-EU-to-do-nothing.html

    "Research by The Daily Telegraph has established that the Labour peer, who finishes her job as High Representative of foreign affairs in October next year, will be paid £133,500 a year, 55 per cent of her basic salary, until the end of 2017.

    The "transitional allowance" does not require her to do any work at all and she will paid under reduced rates of EU "community" tax, rather than the standard British rates of taxation for high-income earners.

    The allowance is defended as "the price for the total independence" of senior EU officials like Lady Ashton, who is also a vice-president of the European Commission, who must also "ask permission for any job they would like to do for 18 months after leaving".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Don't scoff, Miss Plato. If we'd paid Brown to do nothing for 10 years at that rate it would've cost us £4m and saved us over £100,000m a year.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Cameron on tv saying that welfare is there for people 'who work hard'. I thought wages were meant to be there for them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    More good news for George and the UK economy

    Car manufacturing and sales continue to go grow in the UK and contract in the Eurozone countries. More evidence of a step by step differential recovery in the UK.

    New UK March car registrations came in above forecasts, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) announced Friday.

    Compared to the same month a year ago, registration numbers were up nearly two per cent, bucking the trend seen in the European Union.

    March is generally considered to be a strong month for new registrations because it is when new number plates are released.

    It marked the 13th consecutive month of growth, with volumes the highest since 2010 when the Scrappage Incentive Scheme supported the market.

    The data showed that 394,806 cars were registered with the new 13-plate, up 5.9% compared to a year ago, driven by demand for private registrations, which climbed 7.8% year-on-year, and were up 11.2% in the first quarter.


    SeanT should note that he has contributed personally to this growth:

    the Mini segment again showed the strongest growth in March, up 56.5%,

    Dumb post. We import over 80% of the cars we drive, higher car sales means a BOP problem. And the mini segment doesn't mean just Minis, it means small cars, which we no longer manufacture - apart from the Mini, about the only positive thing Oxford does for the economy.

    So where's the good news ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    I agree with Henry - considering the circumstances - 13 years in power, a financial crisis, an indebted, divided and exhausted party - Brown did pretty well to make it almost a score draw. It's an interesting point made by other posters that Labour benefited from the "We've got a new leader now, give him a chance" tactic which stood Major and the Tories in such good stead in 1992. (I'll admit to slight nervousness about the effect if Cameron were replaced before 2015, for exactly the same reason.)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited April 2013
    Interesting article. No-one know what would have happened. Can see arguments either way.

    What is true is that Blair got very lucky with the timing of his resignation.

    Brown, as the previous chancellor, was undermined in his ability to set a new direction, because the crisis he faced was primarily economic.

    His time in office suggests that Cameron simply wasn't skilled enough to win a majority, regardless of who he faced.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    The game doesn't need always online, the claim it had to be (online calculations needed for the game to work) was proven false when someone cracked the game so it could be played offline, there were numerous delays, saved data was lost.

    It was a textbook case of how not to do it.

    Even if all Microsoft's online infrastructure always worked perfectly that wouldn't be of use to millions of gamers who have dodgy internet connections.

    Indeed so. They were most emphatic about that small line of code and that it was an utterly ridiculous system. The complex modular nature of how games are made (the graphics and sound assets having to be developed by large separate teams and then dropped in on top of the base game engine code) apparently mean that there is no way to fully test an always online system of DRM until the rest of the game is virtually complete. Hence the small piece of coding that is basically added on at the end and was never integral. Even worse, there is no way to adequately test or simulate the loads that always online will generate and so infrastructure failure becomes ever more certain and harder to correct when real world conditions are finally introduced.

    This drive to make things always online seems to be based on either DRM or the bounty of profitable yearly subscriptions to their service. If the consumer does not like this new model then they will pay a heavy price and their competition will reap the reward.



  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Carola,

    It seems like everything in Britain at the moment is for people who work hard/worked hard.

    Why is nobody chasing the 'ladies who lunch' vote?
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Agree, Henry.

    People forget just how unpopular Blair had become towards the end, toxic even.

    In a way he was lucky to bail when he did, so most of the blame for Labour's decline fell on Brown, even though most votes were lost under Blair.

    Also agree that Brown did a great job in denying the Tories an outright win. Labour's healthy position now, poised to return to power after a single term, is thanks in large part to that effort.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    AveryLP said:

    Brown's performance against Cameron in 2010 was uplifted by the Blair stardust, just as Major's was by Thatcher's in 1992.

    If you are joking, very droll. If not then I suggest you adjust your spin, Seth O Logue.

    It was Blair who needed Brown in 2005. That gave rise to the very and less than convincing funny Blair Brown chummy 'double act' during the election campaign and on the PPBs.

    Avery's Pearls Abused

    image
  • @Pulpstar

    I'ts essentially a pool bet, so it depends how many others have gone for the same selection as you, and the size of the pool.

    I guess about 3/1 in this case. Basically, he just needs to beat Flemenstar (I think he will) and not make the mistake of trying to keep up with the favorite.
  • Actually I'd argue that it was Nick Clegg in the first debate who denied Cameron a majority by taking a large chunk of the "anything but Labour" vote. If all of that had gone to the Tories then they might well have won a majority.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2013
    @NickPalmer

    ' Brown did pretty well to make it almost a score draw. '

    With an electoral system rigged in Labour's favor,2 million fewer votes, zero cuts and a massive election spending spree.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:


    Avery's Pearls Abused

    Not as good as your cut and paste ascii art, Seth O Logue.
    Like your spin it had a momentarily superficial appeal.

    Though since we have taught you how to use pictures here's one I'm sure you will appreciate.
    image

    Whatever happened to him? Still not PM, is he? ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    For those of a certain age - I'd forgotten all about Tatu - and that wouldn't be very hard even for me. This is right up @thescreamingeagles street.

    RT @DawnHFoster: Cif comment of the day, or perhaps the week: http://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/320157328563372033/photo/1

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHFtZOGCAAAKC8F.png:large
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Docaster mayor candidates

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    John BROWN: Liberal Democrats
    Peter DAVIES: Independent
    Martin DRAKE: The Conservative Party Candidate
    Mary JACKSON: Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts
    Ros JONES: Labour Party Candidate
    Michael MAYE: Independent
    Dave OWEN: National Front Putting Britain First
    Tony WARD: Independent
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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    I suspect that some 2010 Labour voters would have voted LibDem if the aggressor in Iraq had still been around. Unjustifiable it may have been but the departure of Blair was seen as a break with the war.
    So, with Cleggs then popularity we could have seen 70+ LibDem MP's
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    The Mail has much to be responsible for with its stupid scare stories. Cancer druid today I see.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    For Ladies Day - is this the most appropriate hat?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHF9zhACMAI1YMK.jpg
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    john_zims said:

    @NickPalmer

    ' Brown did pretty well to make it almost a score draw. '

    With an electoral system rigged in Labour's favor,2 million fewer votes, zero cuts and a massive election spending spree.

    This is 95% wrong. The reasons why the Tories require a higher vote shares for a majority are because of tactcial voting and the party building up big totals where it doesn't matter.

    The LAB vote is much more efficently distributed.



  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Plato said:

    For Ladies Day - is this the most appropriate hat?
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHF9zhACMAI1YMK.jpg

    Putting the horse upside down would have won her a bad taste award. (sorry)

  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited April 2013
    I reckon Blair would've won. It would've been a squeeze but he would've won it. Brown would've been the difficult thing for him to handle if he had stayed on as leader; particularly how to keep him on side (at that point none of us knew how crap Brown actually was). But as much as Blair got up my nose I reckon his supposed unpopularity was something artificially inflamed by the right-wing media and anti-war spokespeople rather than something that was evident among the public. Even at the end.

    It's all conjecture anyway because we had Brown imposed on us by the Labour party sages and the likes of Polly who welcomed us to nirvana at Brown's arrival.

    Now it is difficult to find anybody who liked Brown. Even his dog pissed on his carpet before doing a runner. But Brown did give us some great political moments. Allowing his minions like Tom Watson and the poisonous Ian Austin let us believe that 'Brown's first 100 days would transform Britain' was fab. If I had a film version of it on DVD I'd watch it every night. Even I believed that Brown must have some masterplan, carefully jigsawed together after 10 years of pining for the throne. Why else get shot of electoral gold like Blair? And yet, and yet........... oh, for the thousands of true Brownite believers whose scales fell from their eyes as they realised Brown had nothing. Nada, zilch. No policies whatsoever. All that envy and jealousy and agitation and mendacity and impatience and it all added up to the square root of eff all. He'd somehow forgotten - despite 30 years as a tribalist politician - that becoming PM of this great country required some policies and some leadership.

    Oops. What a tragedy. For Brown, and for Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2013

    @Pulpstar

    I'ts essentially a pool bet, so it depends how many others have gone for the same selection as you, and the size of the pool.

    I guess about 3/1 in this case. Basically, he just needs to beat Flemenstar (I think he will) and not make the mistake of trying to keep up with the favorite.

    Looks like I will find out shortly !

    The forecast returned 2.37:1. (£16.85 returned for £5 stake)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Docaster mayor candidates

    David ALLEN: English Democrats-'Putting England First!'
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    Does using apostrophes and calling yourself "David" mean you are targeting the middle class...?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    If you're concerned one way or the other about these gaming machines ... you can add your 2p here http://www.backyourlocalbookie.co.uk/
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Blair had an comparatively easy time of it because of Major, IDS, Hague and Howard.

    Years of inept and hopeless opposition was what becoming the nasty party meant and why Cammie put detox at the forefront of his leadership bid and thence election campaign. Those who have forgotten how low the tories sunk will be reminded of it soon enough should Cammie continue down this path. The May local elections will be a telling indication of just how low.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Anorak LOL
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    john_zims said:

    @NickPalmer

    ' Brown did pretty well to make it almost a score draw. '

    With an electoral system rigged in Labour's favor,2 million fewer votes, zero cuts and a massive election spending spree.

    This is 95% wrong. The reasons why the Tories require a higher vote shares for a majority are because of tactcial voting and the party building up big totals where it doesn't matter.

    The LAB vote is much more efficently distributed.



    Whereas the UKIP vote is too evenly distributed !

  • @Pulpstar

    Wasn't he wonderful?

    I stood close to him at Cheltenham. He really is the most awesome specimen.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Blair is evidently even more of a fantasist than I realised. He was toxic in a way that Brown wasn't to a specific niche of voter because of Iraq (see the improbable seats that Labour lost in 2005).

    I imagine he's probably also still in denial about his role in opening the door for the SNP in 2007.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Mike Smithson

    'This is 95% wrong'

    The Tories didn't get 2 million more votes than Labour,Brown made lots of cuts and didn't have a massive pre -election spending spree and Labour don't build up big totals where it doesn't matter ,history re-written.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Blair is evidently even more of a fantasist than I realised. He was toxic in a way that Brown wasn't to a specific niche of voter because of Iraq (see the improbable seats that Labour lost in 2005).

    I imagine he's probably also still in denial about his role in opening the door for the SNP in 2007.

    He won the 2005 election with a 66-seat majority, such was his toxicity. During which time Iraq was in flames and a complete disaster.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Blair winning the 2005 election all by himself.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRzgNjlR4rw

    *chortle*

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    @Pulpstar

    Wasn't he wonderful?

    I stood close to him at Cheltenham. He really is the most awesome specimen.

    Will watch it later ! All I know is he was pretty much a dead cert so I effectively wanted a 'draw' on the bet as long as he won.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Up against idiots like this

    @MrHarryCole: Wow RT @WSMFamilyLaw To me what Philpott did, and what Cameron and Osborne are doing are similar.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "He won the 2005 election with a 66-seat majority, such was his toxicity."

    Yes, a mere drop of 100 in his majority. What an astounding triumph. And what a shame he couldn't have led Labour to more of the same in 2010...oh wait...
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: David Cameron says the Philpott case shows there are "wider questions" about the welfare state in Britain

    Back to the Shannon Matthews well for "as a father" Dave

    Back to the nasty party it is.
    Ah well, at least he can ask IDS and Hague for tips when it all goes pear shaped.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    LibDems have just 7 candidates in the Isle of Wight all out elections.
  • @Pulpstar

    I got paid 11/4, so my guess was pretty good.

    Cue Card is a serious horse and gave its full running. Finished about five lengths back, but SS had plenty in the tank.

    Fresh air was third.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @JamesKelly

    Remember, he was up against the awesome might of 'something of the night' and Crosby.

    image

    Sadly, the voter saw it more as..

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    @Pulpstar

    I got paid 11/4, so my guess was pretty good.

    Cue Card is a serious horse and gave its full running. Finished about five lengths back, but SS had plenty in the tank.

    Fresh air was third.

    I'd imagine alot of people would have been on the forecast !
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Carola said:
    I like the way they describe the LibDems:

    "It has also taken councillors off the several Liberal Democrats"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Even Sophy gets it

    @SophyRidgeSky: Understand Labour warning against political point scoring over death of 6 children. But is there risk of looking soft on welfare as result?

    The Leftards here still want to keep digging.
  • Fortunately the Irish horse attracted a lot of support.

    I've seen it run a few times and couldn't be having it. And Cue Card is a genuine champion in his own right. Remember he only finished 7l behind SS in the Arkle, over a distance which didn't suit CC. It's a measure of SS's brilliance that he made CC look ordinary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    There are rumours the Xbox720/Durango/Nextbox will feature always-on internet

    I gather from those who work in that area that the SimCity always online launch was (and I believe this is the correct terminology used) a complete and utter clusterf**k.

    Doesn't sound too wise if they are going down that path I have to say since EA are hardly a minnow in the gaming software industry and they couldn't make it work.
    I can confirm that re SimCity. My 9 year old had pre-booked it. Firstly, they did not have enough servers available so that you could wait 50 minutes to get on and secondly, when they brought more servers on they had to wipe all the one's already loaded so that my son's first few cities were all deleted!

    He is pretty happy with it now though.



  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Scott_P said:

    Even Sophy gets it.

    Your always imminent scottish tory surge? Who doesn't? ;)
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    On tactical voting and seat calculators. Try putting in the 2005 results into the new 2015 calculator (I forget which one I used). Labour comes 4 seats over the line. I appreciate new seats in 2010 probably meant another 10 or so, so make that about 339 or so. Far from the 60+ seat majority Labour had.

    What does this prove:
    -not a lot
    -Labour are now underperforming against UNS
    -seat calculators are bunkum
    -the party with the swing towards it outperforms UNS


    Could be all four, or neither. But I think Labour are not guaranteed a majority in 2015. Think punters think so too.

    (For a laugh put the 2010 outcome results into the the 2010 seat calculator. Tories outperform by some 20 seats.)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John Rentoul was just interviewed on Sky about this. He saw this as fantasy politics, given that the Labour party had had enough of Tony Blair by 2006.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765
    For me, one of the telling points of the election was when Blair went back to his old constituency office to make a speech.

    The BBC of course covered it live.

    All the old techniques he used were there, the self deprecating remark to draw his audience in, the hesitant pause as if he was just thinking of something instead of reading out a speech and the logical construction of his argument skipping over the biggest gaps the quickest or with an "of course". There was no doubt he was a skilled public speaker in a completely different class from Brown.

    The result was ...nothing. No one wanted to know. No one believed a word he said. No one cared. His time had come and gone and thinking it might have been better if his time had gone on is simply delusional. But he was always good at that.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Do you want the good news or the bad news? Good for the UK. Bad for the Eurozone

    Eurostat published statistics today for retail sales in February 2013 across the EU. The figures confirm other indicators that the UK economy is currently outperforming all its large competitors in the EU.

    In February 2013 compared with January 2013, the volume of retail trade fell by 0.3% in the euro area (EA17) and remained stable in the EU27, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In January retail trade rose by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In February 2013 compared with February 2012, the retail sales index dropped by 1.4% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27.

    The difference in the health of the retail economy in the Eurozone and non-Euro countries is shown clearly by this graph published by Eurostat:

    image

    Annual comparison

    In February 2013, compared with February 2012, “Food, drinks and tobacco” fell by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27. The non-food sector dropped by 1.5% in the euro area and rose by 0.2% in the EU27. Among the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade fell in twelve and rose in ten. The largest decreases were observed in Spain (-9.7%), Portugal (-5.3%) and Estonia (-4.5%), and the highest increases in Luxembourg (+17.3%), Latvia (+4.8%) and the United Kingdom (+3.8%)
    .

    It is beginning to look as if Moody has made a very poor mistake in marking George's examination papers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited April 2013
    Mr. L, that's another issue with the preorder industry. DLC is dangled as bait to attract people, but you can't tell if you'll get a surprisingly great game like Dragon's Dogma (NB if you don't have it yet just wait a few works for Dark Arisen which is under £20 and has the original game plus extras) or the reportedly atrocious Alien: Colonial Marines.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Scott_P said:

    Even Sophy gets it

    @SophyRidgeSky: Understand Labour warning against political point scoring over death of 6 children. But is there risk of looking soft on welfare as result?

    The Leftards here still want to keep digging.

    There is clearly a risk. But someone has to make the point that not all those on welfare are potentially childkilling scroungers, but that instead the vast majority are normal, everyday people who either have a job, would like one or are of pensionable age. The Tories have set out their stall - they are cutting welfare payments to the disabled and the working poor because they are on the side of people who do the right thing. They have yet to explain what the disabled and the working poor have done wrong, but maybe they'll get round to that. They have also yet to explain why they have introduced new housing benefit rules that will favour people like Mick Philpott over hardworking familes who happen to have one bedroom too many. But maybe they'll get round to that too.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    LibDems have just 7 candidates in the Isle of Wight all out elections.

    Money seems to becoming a problem for the LDs.

    Their 2011 accounts show they've been overspending since 2007

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/party-finance-analysis-accounts#LD

    while The Independent reports their 2012 fundraising showed a 40% fall year-on-year.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/40-per-cent-drop-in-donations-piles-pain-on-lib-dems-8503895.html

    Goodness knows how they're planning to finance the 2015 general election.



  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765

    Mr. L, that's another issue with the preorder industry. DLC is dangled as bait to attract people, but you can't tell if you'll get a surprisingly great game like Dragon's Dogma (NB if you don't have it yet just wait a few works for Dark Arisen which is under £20 and has the original game plus extras) or the reportedly atrocious Alien: Colonial Marines.

    Sorry Morris, not really a computer games player myself. DLC?

    And is Dark Arisen going to be suitable for a 9 year old (I am ashamed to admit that like all his friends he already plays COD).

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @tnewtondunn: 1st Philpott poll - YouGov/C5News: 51% say “just the actions of an evil man", 43% say “raises serious questions about benefits system”.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013


    There is clearly a risk.

    With the toxic incompetent Osbrown and Cammie master strategising? Not really.

    We shall see in May though, won't we. There will be no excuses left then.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "1st Philpott poll - YouGov/C5News: 51% say “just the actions of an evil man", 43% say “raises serious questions about benefits system”."


    Hmmm. That's a bit inconvenient for the PB Tory narrative.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Pulpstar said:

    john_zims said:

    @NickPalmer

    ' Brown did pretty well to make it almost a score draw. '

    With an electoral system rigged in Labour's favor,2 million fewer votes, zero cuts and a massive election spending spree.

    This is 95% wrong. The reasons why the Tories require a higher vote shares for a majority are because of tactcial voting and the party building up big totals where it doesn't matter.

    The LAB vote is much more efficently distributed.



    Whereas the UKIP vote is too evenly distributed !

    The Conservatives poll too well in safe opposition seats, whereas the Labour vote falls away very sharply in seats where the party has no chance.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DavidL said:

    Mr. L, that's another issue with the preorder industry. DLC is dangled as bait to attract people, but you can't tell if you'll get a surprisingly great game like Dragon's Dogma (NB if you don't have it yet just wait a few works for Dark Arisen which is under £20 and has the original game plus extras) or the reportedly atrocious Alien: Colonial Marines.

    Sorry Morris, not really a computer games player myself. DLC?

    And is Dark Arisen going to be suitable for a 9 year old (I am ashamed to admit that like all his friends he already plays COD).

    Downloadable content - extra buildings and stuff for Sim City would be one.
  • RightChuckRightChuck Posts: 110
    Plato said:

    RT @tnewtondunn: 1st Philpott poll - YouGov/C5News: 51% say “just the actions of an evil man", 43% say “raises serious questions about benefits system”.

    The correct answer is both though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. L - DLC = downloadable content.

    It's very common now for games that are pre-ordered to have a free bit or two of DLC (nicer weapons, some in-game currency, a new skin/costume for a character etc). Games often have lots of small and/or large bits of DLC added long after the actual game is sold (the Dawnguard DLC recently became available for the PS3. I won't buy it, but might go for a Game of the Year Edition if one containing such DLC is released).

    Hmm. It probably wouldn't be designed for such a young fellow. Not sure what rating original Dragon's Dogma had but I think Dark Arisen's is higher. On the other hand, it depends what he's already playing. If someone's taking crystal meth and drinking a bottle of vodka a day worrying about their excessive salt intake is missing the point.

    I sympathise with your position regarding CoD and suchlike. A while ago it emerged some kids at a primary school near me were playing Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. I won't befoul this family website with details, but it is really, really not a game for kids.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamesKelly

    43% is inconvenient? That's a bit rich from the "Alex Salmond farting is good news for the SNP" camp
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 27
    tim said:

    @anorak

    Agree completely, if the anti vaccine twats want to put their children and everyone else's at risk (remember babies can't be vaccinated) then let them set up their own schools and nurseries.

    That would be a (Vaccine) Free School then Tim?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    DavidL said:

    Mr. L, that's another issue with the preorder industry. DLC is dangled as bait to attract people, but you can't tell if you'll get a surprisingly great game like Dragon's Dogma (NB if you don't have it yet just wait a few works for Dark Arisen which is under £20 and has the original game plus extras) or the reportedly atrocious Alien: Colonial Marines.

    Sorry Morris, not really a computer games player myself. DLC?

    And is Dark Arisen going to be suitable for a 9 year old (I am ashamed to admit that like all his friends he already plays COD).

    DLC=downloadable content. It's a way for companies to get some more revenue from games they're selling separately - adding new scenarios, weapons, characters, playable races, etc. Used to be just for existing games. Preorder advertising now often throws in some unique DLC that you can add to your game on purchase, by implication unlike the saps who aren't privileged to get direct mail offers like you and just buy it in a shop. As Morris says, you don't know if the game is any good at that stage, thus also not whether owning the Special Samurai Invisible Sword is going to be important to your happiness or not.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    "1st Philpott poll - YouGov/C5News: 51% say “just the actions of an evil man", 43% say “raises serious questions about benefits system”."


    Hmmm. That's a bit inconvenient for the PB Tory narrative.

    Only for those who are stupid enough not to be able to distinguish between the actions of an evil man, and the exposure those actions have given to a lifestyle which the benefits system has been enabling, encouraging and subsidising.

    I'm not certain if there really are people who are so stupid, or whether they are simply pretending to be stupid because for some reason (which frankly I don't understand), they don't want to discuss the subject.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    For all you happy sterling bears, the pound just hit 1:53 and a a half against the greenback....

    And for the downgrade brigade, 10-year gilts are a miserly 1.62...

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi

    At the end Brown was a bigger asset to Labour than Cameron is now for the Tories

    Mori

    Brown 35 Labour 29
    Dave 32 Con 28


    The PB Tory bubble was as wrong on that as it is on the relative toxicity of Osborne and Balls
    Nice that we have a poll to seal that debate.
    Although anecdote is preferable

    It's not unheard of for Prime Minister's to have better ratings on the eve of an election than mid-term.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Scott_P said:

    @JamesKelly

    That's a bit rich

    Now, now, scotty. Last year your scottish tory surge actually turned out to be losing 20% of scottish tory councillors, your vote fall to 13.31 per cent and local representation cut dramatically and even wiped out in some areas. So we'll be having none of "that's a bit rich" from you, thanks all the same. :)

  • Eight county divisions in West Lancashire. Unconfirmed reports say full slate of candidates from Labour and Conservatives, 6 from UKIP, 5 from Greens and 2 from Lib Dems.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633



    Goodness knows how they're planning to finance the 2015 general election.

    When a continuity Yellow/Blue coalition swings back to a more likely prospect they should be able to pick up some big donors.
This discussion has been closed.