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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon did and denied Dave a majority in 2010
Tony Blair’s remarks that “he could have given Cameron a run for his money” have raised a few eyebrows this morning. It’s opened up an intriguing “what if” scenario. It’s easy to look back in rose-tinted spectacles, and a number of commentators such as John Rentoul have an interest in keeping the Blairite flame alive. However as I remember it he had to go:
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Blair was the most formidable opponent of the Tory Party since Atlee and Wilson, and yet Labour are trying to airbrush him out of their history.
In other news, some interesting facts about Iceland:
1. Beer was illegal until 1989.
2. Eight out of 10 Icelanders believe in elves.
3. Television used to be heavily controlled by the state – there were no programmes on Thursdays and throughout July (I love the randomness of that).
4. We invaded Iceland in 1940 without a shot being fired.
It’s a seriously great place.
We need to consider a few things:
1) How good or bad was the result for both parties?
2) How much of this was down to blue factors?
3) How much was down to red factors?
4) How would things have gone for Labour if Blair had stayed.
1) The result is a bit debatable. On the one hand, the Conservatives won about 100 extra seats, which is a fantastic shift, but their starting base was so low that although clearly the largest party in Parliament they lacked a majority.
Compared to some polling this was very poor and well below expectations. However, the electoral system favoured Labour.
For Labour, it was a significant comeback, and although a loss it was more of a fighting retreat than a rout.
2) It's easy to forget the numerous cock-ups the Conservatives made early on in 2010. Whilst a general direction and some specifics are needed pre-election they went into too much detail on policies that didn't seem to stand up, and if they did they lacked the lines to support them. Some masterly inactivity could've seen them get a majority. This had nothing to do with the leadership of Labour.
3) Labour had a good campaign. Admittedly, they were aided by a delinquent media that considered "We have a deficit reduction plan" to be a magical incantation that warranted no further inquiry (such as "What is it?"), but they nevertheless were united and played the media game (in both the positive and negative sense) better than the blues.
Brown, wrongly in my view, was still seen my some as saviour (despite landing us in the mess) and economic sage, and almost certainly got a hefty Scottish bonus (hard to say if that particular factor would've occurred if he'd been Chancellor but at war with PM Blair).
4) Blair was a great campaigner but everyone was bloody sick of his utterly unrepentent attitude and his immense ego. I think that would've harmed Labour considerably, and that Cameron probably would have benefited. Cameron and Brown were very different creatures, but Blair would've looked like Cameron + 10 years and a financial crisis + Iraq.
I think Blair's delusions have continued after his departure from office.
Thanks for the widget. Much appreciated - is there a way to make it reverse the post order?
I've been reading PB using the back office list of Oldest First.
I may surprise you but I don't think Clegg would have been such a pushover. Clegg had that new leader 'shine' going for him and his emulation of Blair is far more adroit precisely because it isn't so clunkingly obvious like Cammie is.
*Betting Post*
Good day at the office yesterday. Much more difficult cards today - a lot of races are either too easy or far too difficult. Here are my suggestions - small stakes throughout.
Aintree:
2.00 My Tent Or Yours 4/9
2.30 River Creek 6/4
3.05 Sprinter Sacre 4/11
4.15 At Fishers Cross 6/4
4.50 Meister Eckhart 9/1
Prima Porta 22/1
Bar de Ligne 40/1
Sedgefield:
2.10 Glasson Lad 9/2
3.20 Kings Chorister 7/2
Dundalk:
6.50 More Questions 17/2
7.20 Rigid Rock 13/2
8.20 Tennessee Widcat 7/1
Wolverhampton:
9.00 Exit Clause 6/1
My regular followers will know just how averse I am to backing odds on, but I have no hesitation in taking the 4/11 Sprinter Sacre. In my opinion, it should be 1/10.
The three suggestions for the 4.50 can be mixed and matched. The place value in this race is very good. I have done all three each way, with the biggest stake on Meister Eckhart. I've also done the reverse forecasts and a tricast - for footling amounts though.
Good luck and enjoy the racing, especiially Sprinter Sacre. He's a bit special.
Though you will at least make the Kippers very happy. So there's that.
In any case, the unpopularity of Brown has been exaggerated. He was a lot less unpopular than he deserved to be. I still think he could have won a majority if he'd called an election in spring 2009 - when he was still the saviour of the world, right? - and if, at the same time, he'd been honest about the challenges, as Darling, Mandelson and every one else with half a brain were urging. But he seemed to have become hard-wired for dishonesty, or self-delusion, or whatever other psychological problem caused him to deny that money would have to be saved in the light of the massive fall in tax revenues.
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/123098-Microsoft-Exec-on-Always-Online-Consoles-Deal-With-it
There are rumours the Xbox720/Durango/Nextbox will feature always-on internet (for added fun, the Kinect means there would also be an always on camera). Not confirmed or denied, as yet.
The PS4 will *not* need an internet connection to work, and this would be a crazy move by Microsoft. Saying things like the below is just stupid:
"Sorry, I don't get the drama around having an "always on" console," he tweeted earlier today. "Every device now is "always on". That's the world we live in. #dealwithit"
"The Labour Party itself was verging on bankruptcy as a result of Blair and his circle relying heavily on a series of huge loans for the 2005 election that had to be repaid, rather than cut the cloth accordingly"
There's something ironic about a stalwart Labour-man viewing this as a fundamental error...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22043312
Both were replaced with lesser substitutes who initially benefitted from succeeding a winner. Brown's performance against Cameron in 2010 was uplifted by the Blair stardust, just as Major's was by Thatcher's in 1992.
Brown was lucky that he did not run a full second term like Major. The bloodbath in 2015 would have made the Tories defeat in 1997 feel like light summer rain on a picnic.
Blair, like Thatcher, won his elections because his personal appeal reached well beyond the boundaries of his party. His shine may have become tarnished with age but a little bit of buffing up would have shown that he was made of precious metal.
With Brown and Ed Miliband their personal appeal is narrower than their parties. Whatever polling lift they might have achieved was temporary. The dull shine is gilt: apply a little pressure and the base metal is quickly revealed.
Doesn't sound too wise if they are going down that path I have to say since EA are hardly a minnow in the gaming software industry and they couldn't make it work.
Odds are 1/3 and 7/1.
Not a PC gamer but from what I've read it was absolutely awful. The game doesn't need always online, the claim it had to be (online calculations needed for the game to work) was proven false when someone cracked the game so it could be played offline, there were numerous delays, saved data was lost.
It was a textbook case of how not to do it.
Even if all Microsoft's online infrastructure always worked perfectly that wouldn't be of use to millions of gamers who have dodgy internet connections.
It was Blair who needed Brown in 2005. That gave rise to the very funny and less than convincing Blair Brown chummy 'double act' during the election campaign and on the PPBs.
More good news for George and the UK economy
Car manufacturing and sales continue to go grow in the UK and contract in the Eurozone countries. More evidence of a step by step differential recovery in the UK.
New UK March car registrations came in above forecasts, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) announced Friday.
Compared to the same month a year ago, registration numbers were up nearly two per cent, bucking the trend seen in the European Union.
March is generally considered to be a strong month for new registrations because it is when new number plates are released.
It marked the 13th consecutive month of growth, with volumes the highest since 2010 when the Scrappage Incentive Scheme supported the market.
The data showed that 394,806 cars were registered with the new 13-plate, up 5.9% compared to a year ago, driven by demand for private registrations, which climbed 7.8% year-on-year, and were up 11.2% in the first quarter.
SeanT should note that he has contributed personally to this growth:
the Mini segment again showed the strongest growth in March, up 56.5%,
"Research by The Daily Telegraph has established that the Labour peer, who finishes her job as High Representative of foreign affairs in October next year, will be paid £133,500 a year, 55 per cent of her basic salary, until the end of 2017.
The "transitional allowance" does not require her to do any work at all and she will paid under reduced rates of EU "community" tax, rather than the standard British rates of taxation for high-income earners.
The allowance is defended as "the price for the total independence" of senior EU officials like Lady Ashton, who is also a vice-president of the European Commission, who must also "ask permission for any job they would like to do for 18 months after leaving".
So where's the good news ?
What is true is that Blair got very lucky with the timing of his resignation.
Brown, as the previous chancellor, was undermined in his ability to set a new direction, because the crisis he faced was primarily economic.
His time in office suggests that Cameron simply wasn't skilled enough to win a majority, regardless of who he faced.
This drive to make things always online seems to be based on either DRM or the bounty of profitable yearly subscriptions to their service. If the consumer does not like this new model then they will pay a heavy price and their competition will reap the reward.
It seems like everything in Britain at the moment is for people who work hard/worked hard.
Why is nobody chasing the 'ladies who lunch' vote?
People forget just how unpopular Blair had become towards the end, toxic even.
In a way he was lucky to bail when he did, so most of the blame for Labour's decline fell on Brown, even though most votes were lost under Blair.
Also agree that Brown did a great job in denying the Tories an outright win. Labour's healthy position now, poised to return to power after a single term, is thanks in large part to that effort.
I'ts essentially a pool bet, so it depends how many others have gone for the same selection as you, and the size of the pool.
I guess about 3/1 in this case. Basically, he just needs to beat Flemenstar (I think he will) and not make the mistake of trying to keep up with the favorite.
' Brown did pretty well to make it almost a score draw. '
With an electoral system rigged in Labour's favor,2 million fewer votes, zero cuts and a massive election spending spree.
Like your spin it had a momentarily superficial appeal.
Though since we have taught you how to use pictures here's one I'm sure you will appreciate.
Whatever happened to him? Still not PM, is he?
RT @DawnHFoster: Cif comment of the day, or perhaps the week: http://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/320157328563372033/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHFtZOGCAAAKC8F.png:large
David ALLEN: English Democrats-'Putting England First!'
John BROWN: Liberal Democrats
Peter DAVIES: Independent
Martin DRAKE: The Conservative Party Candidate
Mary JACKSON: Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts
Ros JONES: Labour Party Candidate
Michael MAYE: Independent
Dave OWEN: National Front Putting Britain First
Tony WARD: Independent
Doug WRIGHT: Save Your Services
So, with Cleggs then popularity we could have seen 70+ LibDem MP's
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHF9zhACMAI1YMK.jpg
The LAB vote is much more efficently distributed.
It's all conjecture anyway because we had Brown imposed on us by the Labour party sages and the likes of Polly who welcomed us to nirvana at Brown's arrival.
Now it is difficult to find anybody who liked Brown. Even his dog pissed on his carpet before doing a runner. But Brown did give us some great political moments. Allowing his minions like Tom Watson and the poisonous Ian Austin let us believe that 'Brown's first 100 days would transform Britain' was fab. If I had a film version of it on DVD I'd watch it every night. Even I believed that Brown must have some masterplan, carefully jigsawed together after 10 years of pining for the throne. Why else get shot of electoral gold like Blair? And yet, and yet........... oh, for the thousands of true Brownite believers whose scales fell from their eyes as they realised Brown had nothing. Nada, zilch. No policies whatsoever. All that envy and jealousy and agitation and mendacity and impatience and it all added up to the square root of eff all. He'd somehow forgotten - despite 30 years as a tribalist politician - that becoming PM of this great country required some policies and some leadership.
Oops. What a tragedy. For Brown, and for Labour.
The forecast returned 2.37:1. (£16.85 returned for £5 stake)
Years of inept and hopeless opposition was what becoming the nasty party meant and why Cammie put detox at the forefront of his leadership bid and thence election campaign. Those who have forgotten how low the tories sunk will be reminded of it soon enough should Cammie continue down this path. The May local elections will be a telling indication of just how low.
Wasn't he wonderful?
I stood close to him at Cheltenham. He really is the most awesome specimen.
I imagine he's probably also still in denial about his role in opening the door for the SNP in 2007.
'This is 95% wrong'
The Tories didn't get 2 million more votes than Labour,Brown made lots of cuts and didn't have a massive pre -election spending spree and Labour don't build up big totals where it doesn't matter ,history re-written.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRzgNjlR4rw
*chortle*
@MrHarryCole: Wow RT @WSMFamilyLaw To me what Philpott did, and what Cameron and Osborne are doing are similar.
Yes, a mere drop of 100 in his majority. What an astounding triumph. And what a shame he couldn't have led Labour to more of the same in 2010...oh wait...
Ah well, at least he can ask IDS and Hague for tips when it all goes pear shaped.
I got paid 11/4, so my guess was pretty good.
Cue Card is a serious horse and gave its full running. Finished about five lengths back, but SS had plenty in the tank.
Fresh air was third.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9974498/Ukip-defections-surge-in-local-election-threat-to-Tories.html
Remember, he was up against the awesome might of 'something of the night' and Crosby.
Sadly, the voter saw it more as..
"It has also taken councillors off the several Liberal Democrats"
@SophyRidgeSky: Understand Labour warning against political point scoring over death of 6 children. But is there risk of looking soft on welfare as result?
The Leftards here still want to keep digging.
I've seen it run a few times and couldn't be having it. And Cue Card is a genuine champion in his own right. Remember he only finished 7l behind SS in the Arkle, over a distance which didn't suit CC. It's a measure of SS's brilliance that he made CC look ordinary.
He is pretty happy with it now though.
What does this prove:
-not a lot
-Labour are now underperforming against UNS
-seat calculators are bunkum
-the party with the swing towards it outperforms UNS
Could be all four, or neither. But I think Labour are not guaranteed a majority in 2015. Think punters think so too.
(For a laugh put the 2010 outcome results into the the 2010 seat calculator. Tories outperform by some 20 seats.)
The BBC of course covered it live.
All the old techniques he used were there, the self deprecating remark to draw his audience in, the hesitant pause as if he was just thinking of something instead of reading out a speech and the logical construction of his argument skipping over the biggest gaps the quickest or with an "of course". There was no doubt he was a skilled public speaker in a completely different class from Brown.
The result was ...nothing. No one wanted to know. No one believed a word he said. No one cared. His time had come and gone and thinking it might have been better if his time had gone on is simply delusional. But he was always good at that.
Eurostat published statistics today for retail sales in February 2013 across the EU. The figures confirm other indicators that the UK economy is currently outperforming all its large competitors in the EU.
In February 2013 compared with January 2013, the volume of retail trade fell by 0.3% in the euro area (EA17) and remained stable in the EU27, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In January retail trade rose by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In February 2013 compared with February 2012, the retail sales index dropped by 1.4% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27.
The difference in the health of the retail economy in the Eurozone and non-Euro countries is shown clearly by this graph published by Eurostat:
Annual comparison
In February 2013, compared with February 2012, “Food, drinks and tobacco” fell by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27. The non-food sector dropped by 1.5% in the euro area and rose by 0.2% in the EU27. Among the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade fell in twelve and rose in ten. The largest decreases were observed in Spain (-9.7%), Portugal (-5.3%) and Estonia (-4.5%), and the highest increases in Luxembourg (+17.3%), Latvia (+4.8%) and the United Kingdom (+3.8%).
It is beginning to look as if Moody has made a very poor mistake in marking George's examination papers.
Their 2011 accounts show they've been overspending since 2007
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/party-finance-analysis-accounts#LD
while The Independent reports their 2012 fundraising showed a 40% fall year-on-year.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/40-per-cent-drop-in-donations-piles-pain-on-lib-dems-8503895.html
Goodness knows how they're planning to finance the 2015 general election.
And is Dark Arisen going to be suitable for a 9 year old (I am ashamed to admit that like all his friends he already plays COD).
We shall see in May though, won't we. There will be no excuses left then.
Hmmm. That's a bit inconvenient for the PB Tory narrative.
It's very common now for games that are pre-ordered to have a free bit or two of DLC (nicer weapons, some in-game currency, a new skin/costume for a character etc). Games often have lots of small and/or large bits of DLC added long after the actual game is sold (the Dawnguard DLC recently became available for the PS3. I won't buy it, but might go for a Game of the Year Edition if one containing such DLC is released).
Hmm. It probably wouldn't be designed for such a young fellow. Not sure what rating original Dragon's Dogma had but I think Dark Arisen's is higher. On the other hand, it depends what he's already playing. If someone's taking crystal meth and drinking a bottle of vodka a day worrying about their excessive salt intake is missing the point.
I sympathise with your position regarding CoD and suchlike. A while ago it emerged some kids at a primary school near me were playing Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. I won't befoul this family website with details, but it is really, really not a game for kids.
43% is inconvenient? That's a bit rich from the "Alex Salmond farting is good news for the SNP" camp
I'm not certain if there really are people who are so stupid, or whether they are simply pretending to be stupid because for some reason (which frankly I don't understand), they don't want to discuss the subject.
And for the downgrade brigade, 10-year gilts are a miserly 1.62...