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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon
Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 824 (62% +32%), Conservative 472 (35% -11%), Liberal Democrat 42 (3% -3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 352 (27%) on a swing of 21.5% from Con to Lab
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FPT:
Mr. Eagles, there's a nice line in Outlaws of the Marsh - "After the clouds had expended their rain" - which refers to the aftermath of frisky time.
Miss JGP, I didn't stay up too late (2-3am, maybe) but agree entirely. Mr. JS' spreadsheet was a major factor in the site being a day and a half ahead of the broadcast media.
Selling Labour at 19 w SPIN is laying 4/6 (Betfair currently 4/7 in tiny size/weak market) with a possible booster of them MU 0. If those reports are true it is big value
You could sell it w Spin at 19, Back Labour to win w Ladbrokes at 4/7 and create a nice bet on them coming 3rd
Sell £10 at 19
Have £90 at 4/7
Lab win you lose £8.7
Lab 2nd scratch
Lab 3rd you win £100
So 11.5/1 Labour 3rd or 4th, is it an 8% chance?
What the fuck is the word yup?
But on important matters, back to this pineapple on pizza thing...
http://www.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/news/?p=31528
On more important matters....who the fuck would put pineapple on a pizza? I'm not addressing this one at you comrade
My crystal ball says Labour will hold Stoke reasonably handily >5 % points but on a low turnout. Will also hold Copeland but it will be closer < 5% points.
No one would put pineapple on a pizza...surely? That is gross with a capital G followed by ROSS......
Eoghhh....no....I cannot and will not believe it.....
*This may or may not be related to the unexpected creation by MrsM at the weekend of a shrimp and pineapple curry when I was expecting something more steak-shaped. I deserved an Oscar.
a) agree
b) read 'MrsM' as 'MSM'
But come to Italy....put pineapple on a pizza and the locals would place you on a rubber dinghy and push you in the direction of Libya.....
I've asked YouGov and Opinium to poll on pineapple on pizza.
@Darkxaur: @Canada Ok, here's the plan; we blow up Canada. No international court will convict us.
Obvs.
Still, that said, the best, most perfect cuisine in the world is Indian cuisine..........Indians do things with vegetables that makes the eyes water......
Incidentally, have you run across The Handsome Family? Slightly weird gothic alt.country, worth catching. I like the imagery of this drunken Christmas:
https://youtu.be/tNz-EiO3BRY
Seems to be a bit lacking in hope
https://www.facebook.com/jim.may.127648
I love the Handsome family......innovative, fresh, clever but resonant...and old fashioned.....
I have changed my alarm call to Miles Davis's Blue in Green....I swear that is the best wake up call. You feel relaxed, chilled, yet intellectually stimulated.....
Evan: "someone said they weren't fed up, was it you sir?"
Sad voter: "No, I am fed up. Just sayin'"
I can only assume the complexity is for tax reasons.
They are on a European tour at the moment, but I found out too late to make the local dates. America is a complex place. Just when you give it up as a self harming wasteland, out comes a band that sings so beautifully of a self harming wasteland. Genius!
@Foxes
American creativity during the Nixon years was incredible....from the literature of Roth and Updike, to the post modernism of neo realistic American cinema....think Scorcese, Altman, Coppola, Friedkin etc.....
Trump may well be a blessing in disguise for the creative arts....we sometimes need a nincompoop as POTUS to get that grey matter moving...
What a good call that is !!!
Forgive me....but you cannot have some stupid fucking unelectable wanker leading one of the main political parties.....
And on many levels Corbyn is worse than IDS......
It is a silver lining that I had not considered.
The desolation of late Seventies and early Eighties were the time that seems most like the present, with is social inequality and dying towns. You have now given me hope of some decent counterculture emering here. Perhaps ths Sleaford Mods deserve another listen.
That doesn't say a lot for your finance department
Form is temporary, class is permanent
Long live the Jezzbola.
I tell my wife when I wake up that I think my IQ has increased after listing to Blue in Green...
I kind of think Miles Davis was like Leonardo, or Einstein...just one of those very few human being who possessed unbelievable wisdom and insight into how things work....
I'm not Dupont-Aignan's agent but I've been trying to craft an argument for why the TV channels should invite all nominated candidates and not just those who are polling at least 10%.
It was quite easy. There are already two stages of narrowing the field - the "parrainage" requirement and the first round - so why should opinion polls and TV channels impose another?
These stages are at 1.1%, because to get on the ballot a candidate must obtain nominations from 500 of the 47000-strong elected nominariat; and at somewhere around 16%-19%.
2012: 10 candidates: % required to beat third-placed candidate: 17.9
2007 12 candidates: -"- :18.6
2002 16 candidates: -"- :16.2
So why have a middle stage of whittling at 10%? This time there will probably be no more than 10 candidates. Having each been backed by 1.1% of the nominariat, don't all 10 have an equal right to take part in the debates?
The idea in the constitution is that the gladiatorial stuff happens between two candidates after the first round.
We are now two months out, so I've also been looking at what the opinion polls were saying two months before the LR and PS primaries.
LR (average of three polls, 20-26 Sep 2016)
Juppé 37%
Sarkozy 33%
Le Maire 12%
Fillon 8%
Kosciusko-Morizet 4%
SP (13 Nov 2016, "non-candidates" Filoche, Lienemann and Macron included; I have done some magic with these figures; Hollande withdrew; Macron didn't stand; etc.; but DYOR)
Valls 26%
Hollande 22%
Montebourg 20%
Macron 17%
Hamon 8%
Pinel 2%
Lienemann 2%
Filoche 2%
de Rugy 1%
Bennahmias 1%
Peillon 0%
Aubry 0%
Larrouturou 0%
After the certification of candidates, averaging the first three polls (2-6 Jan) (the first round itself was on 22 Jan):
Valls 38%
Montebourg 24%
Hamon 21%
Peillon 9%
Pinel 5%
de Rugy 2%
Bennahmi 2%