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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s approval ratings, fake news, leader ratings, and immigration – all in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Harry Carr (Head of Sky Data) to discuss Donald Trump’s approval rating and latest controversies, YouGov polling on ‘Fake News’ and the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey which this week takes a look at immigration (see image above) and the approval ratings of Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and other party leaders including (topically) UKIP leader Paul Nuttall.
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1x1=1
2x2=4......
I have been struck by the news that despite the recent debate on health tourism, the UK NHS still remains in no way properely equiped to deal with claiming back money for treating non UK NHS patients. The idea that the figures involved then meant that the problem could be ignored has surely been blown out of the water now we have voted for Brexit?? Surely as a matter of urgency, the UK NHS must now be prepared to implement a fair and robust system to reclaim health insurance costs from non UK patients from both within the EU and the wider world?
Just saw a clip of Kellyanne Conway being interviewed by Matt Lauer. She looked incredibly exhausted - and it's only three weeks or so into this administration. I felt pretty sorry for her.
Morning Joe is actually going in on her more so than CNN!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Lzlrh0gaAo
I hope Paul Nuttall's singing performance won't be affected
On fake news....people are pretty good at separating 'Daily Express' stories from real stories and on the whole peddling nasty stories about immigrants etc doesn't work.
On PB's own poll...respondents views on immigration are mixed. On the whole a good thing but some reservations.
My conclusions; PB posters are well to the right of the mean......
Footnote; Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.
http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/arrested-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election-candidate-i-ve-done-nothing-wrong/story-30136133-detail/story.html
The PB poll was commissioned by PB, among all UK adults, not among 'PB Posters'.....
As Panelbase haven't got the tables up, we'll have to take Rev (sic) Stu's word for it that the sixth question they asked on Independence wasn't preceded by anything else which might skew the result.....
Should Scotland be an Independent country (ex DK)
Yes: 46
No: 54
On the EU question, when presented with 3 options:
Sindy in the EU: 37
Sindy out the EU: 11
Scotland in UK, outside EU: 43
Rev Stu adds the Sindy votes together to get a 'Sindy total' of 48. Two can play at that game - out the EU comes to 54....(which is equally rubbish...)
http://wingsoverscotland.com/all-the-damn-vampires/#more-91672
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38985425
Reportedly he personally supported code breaking, radar and the bouncing bomb.
Maybe a few more science graduates in the House of Commons wouldn't come amiss and fewer like Owen Patterson and David Tredinnick.
The noisy extreme posts tend to get noticed over the more reasoned ones.
On topic, I suspect Southampton General, as the nearest English one to the Channel Islands is used to identifying non-NHS patients, and is probably good at it. I suspect......would welcome experienced opinion ....... that hospitals with few ‘overseas’ patients are less good.
There are outright majorities for current immigration being too high, for it adversely affecting the NHS and housing and for immigration making it more difficult for Brits to get a job. In my opinion that is an entirely correct assessment of the employment figures yesterday which showed that over the last year the number of people in employment had reached a new record but that more than 100% of the new jobs had been taken up by people born either in the EU (exc UK) or outside the EU (more the latter curiously enough).
It is also consistent with record levels of employment being combined with very moderate wage growth of 2.6%. The supply of labour in this country has become almost infinitely elastic which allows growth but suppresses wages. The supply of labour in my view is also a major contributor to the poor productivity figures (up 0.3% in the quarter, roughly half the level of growth). There is little incentive to train staff when the skills wanted are readily supplied by immigration.
There are roughly 1.6m people in this country looking for work, more than 4m self employed many precariously in the gig economy, several million more on zero hour contracts and many working part time who would prefer full time work. There is no shortage of labour. There may be a shortage of various skills but this under employment is far more persistent than it would normally be when employment is at such elevated levels. Many millions of our fellow citizens are thus excluded from the benefits of a growing economy.
Also, as long as Mike Pence is veep, I think the Republicans would actually prefer Trump in the White House (shocking but true). Should there be a move against Pence, then we will know they are on manoeuvres against Trump (because that brings Paul Ryan into the equation as his successor).
Unpopularity isn't a sign somebody will be removed. Remember, they have the luxury of exhausted, divided, discredited and leaderless opponents. Clinton (again) had shocking approval ratings in April 1992 - he actually had to nominate William Henry Harrison when asked for a president who had done less well in the time - but still recovered to win in 1996 because the Republicans were even more useless.
I've read a great deal about Churchill over the years (far less about Hitler), and I wonder why Hitler okayed weapons systems that were far too advanced - the V-weapons probably helped Germany lose the war - whilst the UK were more hesitant. As an example, we didn't field our jet aircraft in combat until very near the end of the war, whilst Germany were throwing fragile rocket-planes against us.
Yet Churchill was also the father of the tank in WW1, and Churchill sponsored the trenching machine Cultivator (i.e. Nellie) at the beginning of WW2.
Was it simply the fact that we had American help, or was Churchill more canny than Hitler in choosing projects to go ahead?
http://ow.ly/PynZ3091iWq
Hard to see that happening within a year.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/02/copeland-byelection-tory-ground-campaign-problems.html
The hotel room and coach hire budget appears to have been trimmed?
"Some measures raise questions about structural changes in the UK labour market. In particular, the proportion of part-time workers who cannot find full-time work is markedly above the long-run average. Combined with the increased share of part-time workers in the economy, this suggests that there may be resources in the labour market that firms can mobilise to increase output. Similarly, the underemployment rate – which captures employees who are available and would like to work more hours – at 8.1%, remains above its pre-crisis average of 6.7%."
I would add the very large increase in self employment to those structural changes.
The fact Hitler was also batpoo crazy about such things - in 1945 he believed someone who said they had invented a workable death ray, and ordered Speer to put it into production (which stopped abruptly when Speer pointed out that it was loosely based on a design from H G Wells and featured various components that never existed) - was I think a minor aside.
There's much more likely to be fact-based real news in the Express.
I wouldn't trust the Guardian to line my bird cage.
"Paterson got rid of 550 of his employees working for the Environment Agency on flood maintenance and preparation, slashed the number of his staff working on preparing the UK for the impacts of climate change, such as flooding events, from 38 to six and, according to a source, “wouldn’t even read a briefing from his team if it contained the words ‘climate change’”.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/uk-floods-owen-paterson_b_4767153.html
The single biggest problem, as always in Britain, seems to me to be the education and skills of less able adults.
42% say immigration makes little difference.
28% disagree... But presumably some of them think it makes a positive difference.
Yet 65% think immigration is too high.
(*) An insult to Turing and all the other people who worked on breaking the codes, and especially the Poles.
The supreme court has some vacancies.
Is @TSE polishing his CV?
http://www.cityam.com/259146/get-your-cv-ready-supreme-court-hiring-three-new-judges
There's also Tube Alloys, and the way we let that get subsumed into the Manhattan Project.
(*) And not just by giving the project to Rover.
We blame you lefties, who in turn accelerated immigration to "rub our noses in it".
It does seem that the welfare reforms of the Coalition have significantly reduced structural unemployment. In particular the policies of ensuring those in work receive more than those out of it has driven people into at least qualifying part time work to secure the more generous in work benefits.
I completely agree about education and skills but the fact remains that there is very little incentive to invest in training at present. Personally I would like to see double tax relief for such training so that twice what a firm invests in it can be set against tax.
http://app.ft.com/content/7d3668c2-f39f-11e6-8758-6876151821a6
"over the top" is his verdict.
A week until two by-elections, then just four days until the pre-season testing of Formula 1 finally kicks off. At last.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15095120.Government_buildings_and_SNP_HQ_escape_rate_hikes/
http://www.gallup.com/poll/203915/americans-say-trump-keeps-promises-strong-leader.aspx
Resistance from Whitehall to denuding their power?
Weren't labour promising a senate of the people and regions, an upper house with equal numbers for the four nations, in their manifesto? Rather preempting the outcome of the constitutional convention they wanted, but they were thinking at least.
An English Parliament is the most obvious and popular answer, but the media/political class seem to not even contemplate it.
I treat Littlejohn with the same contempt as Toynbee. Both as extreme as each other, and unable to see the perspective of the other side.