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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stoke Central’s down to whether BREXIT’s a big enough issue fo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stoke Central’s down to whether BREXIT’s a big enough issue for ordinary voters to come out an give LAB a kicking
The following is a great series of Tweet’s on Stoke Central by the FT’s Sebastian Payne
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However, if Labour is giving it this much effort then (1) they should be a good bit shorter than evens, and (2) does it mean they've written Copeland off for practical purposes of resource allocation?
Quick round-up of last night’s vote on the Brexit Bill and everyone’s favourite speaker.
1st amendment. - The House of Commons opposed a Labour amendment to the Brexit bill that would have forced May to make regular reports back to parliament every two months by 333 to 284. Government majority 49.
2nd amendment- Labour calling for the leaders of the devolved administrations to be consulted and have their views taken into account before any final Brexit deal also failed by 333 votes to 276. Government majority of 57.
3rd amendment - Plaid Cymru amendment that would have required the Government to report to Welsh Assembly on effect on Welsh finances of Brexit, defeated by 330 to 267.
Government majority 63
The Speaker for the House of Lords was not consulted before Bercow’s student rant yesterday and will be having a chat with him, later this morning, presumably without coffee.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/commons/the-speaker/speeches/speeches/speakers-speech-president-xi-jinpings-address-to-parliament/
On topic, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Labour brand trumps the Corbyn catastrophe in Stoke......
I can see it was gone over plenty yesterday, but for what it's worth my initial reaction to bercows statement was that initially it sounded reasonable, it wasn't up to him to invite trump to the uk but it's not up to the pm to invite someone to speak in Westminster hall, but that for all I dislike trump and am discouraged by May, the implications of such an avowedly political stance which cannot possibly be without some hypocrisy - anything relying on sexism or human rights to not do something will have some , given the reality of nations we deal with in some places - are actually quite troubling coming from the speaker. Nice eyes to see or ears to hear but that the house directs him perhaps, but it seems an unnecessary complication with his office.
But then bercow can be a bit false at Hines - his excuse for trying to hire someone unsuited to the role of clerk was he was t allowed to split the two aspects of the job -which may well have been a good idea - for which he apparently saw no recourse other than hiring someone unable to do both aspects rather than find so done who could.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4196814/Donald-Trump-faces-BANNED-speaking-Parliament.html
However ghastly Trump is he - and his country - is not remotely in the same league as some of these.....
In any case, I doubt Trump wants to speak to Parliament (neither Reagan nor Bush did) - what he wants is bling - and the Royals have that by the shovel load......
This is a Speaker who aches to be the centre of attention. The past week or so, when MPs have been grabbing headlines with their Brexit and Trump agitations, has not been easy for him. He has felt upstaged. Yesterday he also had to endure the rare spectacle of Theresa May raising merriment when she snotted Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry.
The details are wearisome but the exchange ended with Mrs May calling chi-chi socialist Miss Thornberry by her married name, ‘Lady Nugee’ (her husband is a judicial knight). Miss Thornberry became comically indignant – Hattie Jacques stung on the rump by a horsefly. She went stomping up to Bercow and made a point of order to complain, all meaty forearms and juddering chins, that ‘I have never been a Lady!’
Mrs May amiably said she was sorry if she had upset the old baggage by uttering her married name but she, May, had always been happy to use her husband’s surname.
This brought another cascade of cheers from the Tories. All this Bercow watched, swishing his tail, desperate to become involved and hating the way the Conservatives were prospering.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4197990/QUENTIN-LETTS-sees-red-mist-come-Speaker-s-chair.html#ixzz4XySvB9oL
'Twas on the old thread like a fool
With bad posts that made me a tool
Had pushed all my luck
Got mad and said f*ck
Mods warn it's not nice to be cruel
Not sure about the last line, but I'm pretty happy for that at 5.30am
Speaker John Bercow criticised over Donald Trump comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38889941
Off-topic, still got a big smile on my face thanks to John Bercow, but he should have said he was reflecting the overall will of the house rather than launching into reasons why. He may well have taken the criticism himself rather than face a difficult and divisive vote on the issue in the house - would be a perfect opposition day debate - or maybe it is just about him in the limelight, don't really care!
Consultants PwC say the UK economy will not escape entirely unscathed from the decision to leave the bloc and that it will dampen growth prospects in the short term. But the brunt of the impact would be felt by 2020 and in the years that follow the UK would outperform its peers thanks to its relatively large working age population and its flexible economy.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/07/uk-g7-economy-trade-pwc-brexit-us
The proportion of the public that approve of the government's preparations for Brexit stood at 53 percent, ORB found, up 15 points from a poll last month when only 38 percent approved, with 62 percent disapproving.
The poll also found that 47 percent agreed that May would get the right deal for Britain, with just 29 percent disagreeing. In January, it was evenly split at 35 percent between those who agreed and disagreed.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKBN15L1ZE
Incidentally isn't the Speaker in the HoL, Lord (Norman) Fowler, not someone normal known for suffering fools gladly, should be a interesting meeting with Bercow.
werent these the muppets who claimed we'd fall off a cliff if Brexit happened
theyre simply trying to ingratiate themselves with thge new govt
Hillary Clinton was the civilised candidate. It was so obvious that few of us entertained the possibility of President Trump. Life in the rural rustbelt seldom detains our thoughts. We expected them to vote the way we would — the correct way.
It’s hard to believe 55-year-old car welders weren’t rallied to the cause of transgender bathrooms. Indeed, the 2016 Democrat platform contained almost five times as many references to LGBT rights as to coal and steel communities combined. As a cheerful claimant to one-quarter of that acronym, standing up to bigotry matters to me but so does restoring jobs and dignity to depressed neighbourhoods. Those of us who live in big cities order our priorities accordingly but open-mindedness must extend to those whose values are different. Politics is about building coalitions, not saving souls.
The reaction to Trump — it lacks the rigour of a response — has followed the grammar of identity politics. I am appalled. You are not appalled enough. We are virtuous. They are racists. This is all well and good but achieves nothing beyond giving the speaker a warm glow of virtue.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/02/06/its-time-for-real-liberals-not-ones-with-lazy-protest-slogans-to-stand-up/
2016: Your a racist
2017: Your a white supremacist
2018: ?
They see the UK economy remaining in the top 10, slipping down one spot from ninth place now to 10th in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.....France is forecast to drop out of the top 10, to 12th place in 2050, while Germany is forecast to fall from fifth place to ninth.
I categorise people according to their skin colour*
You are a racist
He is a white supremacist.
*Sadly this is still all too true of many who spent years fighting against racism.
Don't keep us in suspense. How did your friend's date go?
Incidentally the phone call has come and the inspectors are in from 9am. So if anybody who likes me could keep their fingers crossed and Mr Eagles and Mr Wisemann could refrain from sticking pins in their wax models of me for the next couple of days, I would be most grateful.
Hopefully, see you on the other side!
On topic, I would dearly like UKIP to win Stoke Central, but I really don't expect it to do so.
She's into politics and likes Corbyn.
Ultimately May was being petty at thornberry, who then overreacted, looking a bit precious, so may went petty again.
I am predicting a fairly comfortable Labour win, with UKIP on less than 20% of the vote. There used to be a significant BNP vote in the constituency, so I think UKIP has a high floor, but low ceiling. When I looked at the 2015 GE results that was the pattern, with UKIP in the high teens in many seats, low twenties in a significant number, but very few close to the threshold for FPTP victory. UKIP have their fervent supporters, but remain a marmite party.
Doc Nuttal in his country tweeds looks very alien in Stoke.
The contents of Mr Bercow’s near-hysterical rant about President Donald Trump’s planned state visit to Britain are unacceptable. So too is the fact that Mr Bercow has grossly exceeded his authority, seemingly believing himself entitled to wade deep into British foreign policy by dint of his office and his bottomless self-importance.
Mr Bercow has no business making sweeping statements about Britain’s relationship with the world’s leading economic and military power; the conduct of that relationship is a matter for ministers accountable to voters: Theresa May has sensibly chosen to engage with Mr Trump as a critical friend, eschewing the adolescent gesture politics Mr Bercow practises.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/02/06/john-bercow-does-not-speak-britain-just-monstrous-ego/
May was responding to Thornberry's heckle, and heckled back.
I'm not sure Thornberry expressed her point of order as felicitously as she might have wished:
for the record, I have never been a lady, and it will take a great deal more than being married to a knight of the realm to make me one.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2017-02-06/debates/800ae29b-2bdf-46e7-94d6-0a2cf60317b7/CommonsChamber
The problem is that if you do go ahead with The speech I can see various leftie MPs not turning up or keckling or something equally asinine
Delicious.
Perhaps #twitler could tweet it in...
For UKIP to win the by-election, it will require lots of Tories to lend them their vote. With satisfaction ratings for Mrs May so high, I just don't think anywhere near enough will be inclined to send her such a snub.
If there is to be a surprise in Stoke, it might just be the Tory vote holding up very well.
As for the point of UKIP (beyond hard-core Eurosceptics), it's exactly the same as the point of the Lib Dems, other than it's for a different audience: a protest vehicle against the main parties.
Points of Order
Emily Thornberry (Islington South and Finsbury) (Lab)
On a point of order, Mr Speaker. First, is it in order for the Prime Minister to refer to a Member of this House not by her own name, but by the name of her husband? Secondly, for the record, I have never been a lady, and it will take a great deal more than being married to a knight of the realm to make me one.
The Prime Minister (Mrs Theresa May)
Further to that point of order, Mr Speaker. I did not in any way intend to be disorderly in this House, and if the hon. Lady is concerned about the reference that I made to her, then of course I will apologise for that. I have to say to her, though, that for the last 36 years I have been referred to by my husband’s name. [Interruption.]
Mr Speaker
Order. No sedentary shrieking from the hon. Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) is required. I have the matter in hand. Two points, very simply: first of all, I thank the Prime Minister for what she has just said. Secondly, in so far as there is any uncertainty on this matter, let me dispel that uncertainty. I do so from my own knowledge and on the professional advice of the Clerk. We refer in this Chamber to Members by their constituencies or, if they have a title—for example, shadow Minister—by their title. To refer to them by another name is not the right thing to do. But the Prime Minister has said what she has said, and I thank her for that. We will leave this matter there.
Like Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, for instance. If only those more capable would offer their services to the Shadow Cabinet, she could be plain Emily again....
You'll triumph like Scipio Africanus at Zama.
My feeling is Labour hold fairly comfortably UKIP/Lib Dems fighting for 2nd Con poor 4th . 2 and a bit weeks to go so still time for things to change ,
For UKIP is this going to be their Waterloo/Stalingrad/Culloden rolled into one ?
F1: Wehrlein's got a neck injury. Not too severe but he may miss the first test (starts 27 February). Particularly tricky as there are only two ahead of this season.
Edited extra bit: and it would be useful to include the link, wouldn't it? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38887608
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
Going back to what was his name Sebastian somebody. Just seen him on Sky News. Appears to answer all my earlier questions. What does he really know what people are thinking as they shop, say at Tescos in Trent Vale?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2609342/Speaker-John-Bercow-run-half-MILLION-pounds-expenses-including-26-000-formal-dresswear-100-000-overseas-jaunts.html
(Note: those numbers are 3 years old.)
It is the person of Trump who's being rejected not his office. The same I'm sure would have applied to the the Chinese leader if he had ever been recorded saying his money entitled him to grab whomever he wished by the pussy and and banned various religeous groups on a whim and then damned his own judiciary for declaring his edicts illegal.