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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might be struggling in Stoke but don’t risk your money bas
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might be struggling in Stoke but don’t risk your money based on this so called “poll”
How the Express is reporting the Stoke central "poll" which wasn't. I'm told it was Facebook survey of 179 people pic.twitter.com/pVlmrSXTu5
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Although if Nuttall did win, it would be a point of evidence to something that's been opined on here before: that Farage was a drag on his own and UKIP's vote. People could vote to leave the EU because people in other parties held the same position: voting for Farage as a candidate was a vote for *him*.
And he is poison to many.
In that regard, I'd quite like Nuttall to win. Firstly, because UKIP's vote share should have more representation. But mostly because he'd have beaten the unelectable (*) Farage
(*) Yes, he's an MEP, but that's a party list system.
Whilst I completely condemn these juvenile threats, probably made by some uninformed wannabe, I can understand the frustration that people that voted leave are feeling.
I see that the now the SC verdict has been given, the remainer 'deplorables' are shedding their false colours and creeping out the woodwork. 'Of course we'll vote for article 50...but only if x, y, and z are conceded'.
The vote on article 50 is not a done deal. The views of the majority of people that voted in the referendum are now held to ransom by the mechanics of the HoC and HoL where compromise and deal making dilutes and demeans the original vote.
Thanks for the reply MD
SeanT Her most recent announcements are to put further restrictions on triggering article 50 grr
Why does the former point mean she can't be involved in the latter?
Too right there are sexist dress rules - just look in parliament - men trussed up in tie and jacket while women can turn up in a frock or jumper, or pretty much whatever they feel like wearing.
Everyone has a responsibility to dial it down.
You have to split the point of law from the reason the case was brought. I think I'm in the same position as Mr Tyndall on this (*): I'm glad she took this to court, and the lords came to the correct answer. I don't particularly like her reasons for bringing the case.
It should be said that I have much less sympathy for some of the other cases that might be appearing.
(*) I hope I've got his position right.
I agree with SeanT that Ms Miller is a liar but this doesn't mean that I want her dead or minimise the seriousness of the threats made against her. If anything, these threats reduce the power of other arguments.
It's the destination that is to be decided by Parliament. That isn't diluting the original vote, the original vote was NOT for extreme hard Brexit.
Cameron is already acting out his bloody fantasies and psychopaths often progress from animals to humans. I hope the police deal with this heavily armed menace.
In the end, it was full of sound and fury signifying nothing, but it feeds into the conspiracy theories.
Ukip won't win Stoke, but more days like yesterday and I'll start to think they might.
"Bad about the death threats but she's a bad woman" doesn't cut it.
https://twitter.com/stephen_hitchin/status/824174466393587712
However, it does bring to mind conversations on here after the 2015 GE. Google and Facebook control a large amount of information on me (so do Amazon and Microsoft, but they're less relevant).
If they were to mine that data: if FB were to analyse all my posts, and Google my searches and media posts, then they'll be able to tell an awful lot about me. My address, age, martial status, my interests, occupation, etc, etc. Even for some people the way they voted last time.
It would not surprise me if, by GE 2020, they could mine this data in such a way that polls could be made much more accurate. Some of this was done in 2015, but they'll have much more data and practice in 2020.
But it'd cost.
(*) Which by now includes everyone in the country aside from Mr Harvey Pleb, of Ordinary Street, Immingham.
"It's the destination that is to be decided by Parliament."
Wot? No negotiation with the EU?
The destination is Out. The details will be decided by negotiation with the EU. Parliament will offer a wish-list. Some designed to wreck the negotiations. They will be discarded on that basis.
I propose we insist on apple pie and motherhood in the recipe.
But if Parliament insists on wrecking additions, it shouldn't act surprised when we leave with Hard Brexit. But they will, blaming poor negotiating on the outcome, and demanding we either revert to staying or re-apply to join.
I've been here before.
Sensible.
"Bad about the death threats but she's a bad woman" doesn't cut it.
Do you say the same about lefty threats and violence towards those on the right? Kill Thatcher, Farage is scum, the making of universities unsafe for non-progressives, muggings of Trump supporters in the USA, Momentum bricks through moderate Labour MPs windows, etc? If we're all a bit honest it's the left that has threatened and delivered violence far, far more than the right historically. This ugly new phenomenon is a bit shocking because it is the first time we have seen violence threatened by non-progressives. That you only now find it shocking says alot.
The answer is without any doubt whatsoever false. The referendum never gave an unambiguous result because it was never intended to return a no result! All we know from the referendum was that 48% supported staying in the EU whilst 52% voted for 'something else'. What makes it confusing is that the 'something else' ranges across the spectrum from WTO rules to EEA membership and all that I can most certainly be certain of is that 52% din't vote for what the PM is proposing. (That certainty comes from me speaking to a number of Leavers all of whom have different ideas about where they want us to end up). Had the referendum offered a choice of, say five different outcomes it is a moot point whether any of the no options would have exceeded the vote for the single yes choice but I digress.
Clearly the PM is not the right person to decide on the outcome, that is Parliament's responsibility. That is why they need a bill to trigger the start of negotiations and why it is right and proper for our elected representatives to make their concerns, checks and balances known and taken into account throughout the whole process. If anyone does like that then perhaps you should move to a more authoritarian state, like Turkey.
Speaking as a working class Northener, is a shame that we don't have more working class Northerners in Parliament.
If I never encountered this in Croydon, Crawley or Brighton then - I doubt it's an issue now.
Miller: "wanted Britain to remain in the EU and the best decision would be to renegotiate membership and reform the EU"
Cameron tried that. It failed. That's why we voted to Leave.
Dingbat.
The prominence of her views came from her being killed in cold blood.
Private schooling and your Dad being a Doctor in Dore isn't errm "working class" !
Now if your Dad had come here and headed down the pits whilst living in Shirebrook...
I'm tempted to cut and paste my previous from the previous thread but other people do it so I won't. It's on the previous thread at the top (or the bottom if you re going through Vanilla).
Thank you to rottenborough for the kind word.
"Redefining social democracy for the 2020s" - a task to keep anyone alive and active I would say.
I've no problem with Gina Miller, her case or the outcome. I sometimes think all some people have is the anger - no solutions, respect or compassion, just anger. If we could take the anger and convert it to useful energy, we'd have no worries. The problem is you can't run a coherent society just by being angry every time someone says or does something you don't like.
May will trigger A50 as and when and she'll have plenty of support in Parliament - the LDs may vote against, others may abstain but she has plenty of votes to work with.
The question of a referendum on the final treaty hangs in the air - nobody wants it now because they are still tired from the 2016 referendum and simply want May to "get on with it" but what comes out the other side of A50 is of huge political and economic significance.
It requires proper and extensive Parliamentary scrutiny as a minimum but as I've often argued, it's more than a dry economic document. Its style and tone will define Britain to the world and to ourselves in the 2020s and beyond and that requires a proper national debate.
If all the Conservatives have to offer in the 2020s is low tax, low regulation, minimal public services and a sweat shop economy as the only way to attract foreign business and investment, that's not a country I want to live in and a policy I could support.
May has said she respects workers' rights but only "under her leadership". I fear a future Conservative leader sacrificing employment laws and protection on the altar of competitiveness in a global economy (or Union bashing).
That is undoubtedly the case and that is why Parliament must decide (unless you Leavers would like another referendum with a list of options - decided by AV?)
However, that doesn't mean I can't have my own personal opinion of Gina Miller: I think she acted with a haughty disdain for the referendum vote, and her motive was clearly to obfuscate or block it. In addition, in her interviews yesterday she came across with a self-assured sense of superiority and arrogance.
She may have actually ended up doing all of us a favour, by clarifying the legalities of Brexit, but let's not pretend she's a Saint taking a hit for the team for the cause of constitutional integrity.
It has given some legal clarity on Brexit, and proscribed the devolved parliaments roles (Though I'm still a bit unsure regarding the Northern Ireland para).
A legal challenge would probably have just come at a later stage which would have meant alot less clarity also.
If a side effect of Brexit is to have those eleven fine legal minds ultimately deciding more of the law than Brussels, that will be no bad thing.
The EU is reportedly allocating more funds to its East StratCom task force to counter the disinformation, amid fears Russia will target elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands
“There is an enormous, far-reaching, at least partly organized, disinformation campaign against the EU, its politicians and its principles,” a source close to the task force told Germany’s Spiegel magazine.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/24/russia-targetting-european-elections-fake-news-eu-task-force/
The public overwhelmingly support Theresa May's position.
In the right hands it was v handy.
Labour Leave have probably shot themselves in the foot.
It's sent me a touch underwater
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Having spoken to family, friends & colleagues in Stoke, I've decided to apply to be the Labour candidate in the forthcoming by-election #NHS
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Reply 43 Retweet 112
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Cllr Dr Hitchin @stephen_hitchin 56m56 minutes ago
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With all sincerity, I withdraw my candidacy for #StokeCentral . Hope you can understand my reasons. Thank you & BW.
So we should describe the benefits of this case, and add to them: Despite Miller.
It's amazing anyone buys the paper.
It all makes sense now.
Sometimes I'm reminded of my six year old. Whenever anyone does anything he doesn't like (like snatching a toy he's playing with) he has a tendency to react with violence, to lash out, and then to justify their behaviour saying it's just "payback".
Instead of blaming "the other side" (Trump supporter, Remoaners, etc. etc. etc.), perhaps we'd be better off not feeding the cycle of recriminations.
Indeed, some of what has gone on in the name of political discourse in the past makes what is happening now seem tame.
On reflection, I'd rather have the sound than silence. For too long, too many people had no voice at all. Now, technology has given more people a voice than ever before and democracy, perversely, benefits if more voices are heard.
Yes, it's discordant and at times dangerous but I'd rather hear the anger than silence. If you can hear and feel the anger, you can try to understand it and deal with it. You may not be able to reason with it but perhaps as the angry hear other voices, they might reason with it themselves.
On the other hand, if he'd won and then resigned later (as happened in Corby) then we'd have had another by-election in a few years and more betting opportunities. Damned selfish of him, if you ask me.
But, I expect I wouldn't get on with her down the pub. It wouldn't be a meeting of minds and the sort of things she'd say about Leavers in private would probably make even the most ardent pb Remainers blush.
I'd expect Nuttall to get 80+% of the vote !
Leave got 80+% on various football fan forums voodoo polls.
I find their behaviour awful - yet somehow its the Right's fault that they responded a bit.
It can make others, who may be quieter but still have valid contributions to make, less likely to take part because the reaction to even reasonable views can be so visceral.
There is not a 1:1 correlation between the loudmouths and the angry.
Zwei Damen einen Tasse.
What's new is that the Web had given a public voice and permanent record to people who might have just impotently shouted abuse at Question Time.
No, it doesn't. All you'll get is political theatre. Labour prefacing everything with "of course, we accept the referendum result, but ..." and the LDs already refusing to invoke Article 50 no matter what.
And the SNP having 50 amendments without even seeing the bill.
All the world may be a stage, but we've already seen this play. In other words, it's a waste of time.
The current government will take us out. If we don't like the deal, we'll probably vote against them at the next GE.
We don't need a practice for the GE campaign now.
Just get on with it.
Looking after the feline on the Trident submarines?
That doesn't make their base fascists or racists. But it is the sort of thing that is causing their relationship with Labour to fracture.
Though Mensch only managed two years in Corby. There's time for him t get the job and give us a brilliantly meaningless by-election.
Minor point - why 'Remoaner', why not 'Remainer'?
I just think it's a really, really crap newspaper.
By contrast, the Daily Mail is actually quite impressive journalism - and painfully effective in promoting its causes - which explains why it is actively hated by the Left, whereas the Express is just laughed at.
But, we were also given rather large brains to overcome our more animalistic brain stems for a reason. It just takes time to learn how to use them.
The Express is an example of what happens when you run a business purely on the basis of short term profit.
The police often get criticised on here, and that criticism is often valid. It's therefore good to read a story where the police seem to have got everything right. They were lucky, but they made most of their luck:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-5667c315-a69c-4e5d-a683-e4e7771eb04d
(Warning: it's one of the Beeb's scrolling multimedia stories)
exceptaccept the vote...."tut tut...good job you're not a writer!
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/824189760721866752
There's a message from Mrs McTurnip too....but she drones on about internationalism, kinship & brotherhood....so obvious "a child might understand, The Deil had business on his hand."