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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So who won the week’s battles over LAB and the NHS, Lynton

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Dare I say Stalin, Hitler, Mao and Saddam Hussein, proving that having presence is not necessarily always a good thing in a leader if you are a genocidal maniac!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Plato - Long meant to, might well request them for Christmas
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    Good news.
    Presumably, like with minimum alchohol pricing, Labour are against it in Scotland (because the SNP want it) and for it in England (because the Tories don't) ?
    Indeed.
    Labour were strong! decisive!

    "The move won broad political backing, although Labour refused to support the legislation at the Scottish Parliament."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-18160832
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    HYUFD said:

    Plato - Long meant to, might well request them for Christmas

    He's not a man one hears about much but I was intrigued after listening to an intv with Caro.

    I was chatting to another re Enoch Powell's autobiog [we had hundreds of political biogs at home] and its between £100 and £1000 secondhand! I wish I'd kept it.

    Fascinating reading - one day perhaps publishers will e-book them for posterity. A bit like a book version of Friends Reunited. Reggie Bosenquet's was most entertaining. Frank Bough could barely string two words together.

    Auto-biogs are my default fav publications - I rarely read biogs as they're often hagiographies or stuffed with unsubstantiated claims to make the writer look informed.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Plato - Chuka is hardly going to dirty his hands with health when he is waiting to be Labour's Messiah in 2015 if Ed goes down to Dave!
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    JZ "Give Abbott a chance"..yes please.. please.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,845
    HYUFD said:

    Dare I say Stalin, Hitler, Mao and Saddam Hussein, proving that having presence is not necessarily always a good thing in a leader if you are a genocidal maniac!

    Isn't "presence" just a euphemism for being tall and having a deep voice?
    I once met a young man who had been turned down from a teaching job because of "lack of presence" - he was about 5' 4".

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2013
    Plato - Indeed, Gore Vidal always said JFK was the most charming man he had ever met, but one of the worst presidents, while LBJ was the more interesting character who got the work done. His presidency was one of the most significant of the twentieth century, passing Medicare and Medicaid and Food stamp legislation, guaranteeing the vote to black Americans and of course Vietnam! In 1964 he also won the biggest voteshare of any president in terms of share of the vote in US history!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    HYUFD said:

    Plato - Chuka is hardly going to dirty his hands with health when he is waiting to be Labour's Messiah in 2015 if Ed goes down to Dave!

    But it might be a smart move by Ed, when there's still likely to be lots of mud heading that way.....of course now Ed is damned if he does move Burnham (weak, took too long, gave in to Cameron) and damned if he doesn't.....ditto Balls....
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013

    JZ "Give Abbott a chance"..yes please.. please.

    Ms Abbott as Min for Public Health is Labour's answer to when Ken Clarke was SoS for Health. Reminded me greatly of Yes, PM. All the series are online here. http://www.veoh.com/watch/v21039721sH2XKWmN

    The Smokescreen was a brilliant effort and manages to combine Crosby, DoH, the Keogh Henderson Report ...


    Watch Yes Prime Minister 1.3 - The Smoke Screen in Comedy | View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    NoOffenceAlan - Yes, although not necessarily about being tall, Napoleon had it and was short, teaching is one job where it is probably one of the top requirements to control a class
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @Plato - I'm may be going to be arwarded the pb dummy-of-the-month, but did Enoch Powell ever write his autobiography? What was its title?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If Chuka Umunna were to replace Andy Burnham, at least there would be full continuity of wikipedia editing skills in the shadow health secretary's office.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    HYUFD said:

    Plato - Indeed, Gore Vidal always said JFK was the most charming man he had ever met, but one of the worst presidents, while LBJ was the more interesting character who got the work done. His presidency was one of the most significant of the twentieth century, passing Medicare and Medicaid and Food stamp legislation, guaranteeing the vote to black Americans and of course Vietnam! In 1964 he also won the biggest voteshare of any president in terms of share of the vote in US history!

    Exactly - but he barely gets a footnote worth of mentions.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Plato - Interesting comments, yes autobiogs can be interesting if written well, Dennis Healey's one of the best. I think Heffer has published a bio of Powell
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    JohnO said:

    @Plato - I'm may be going to be arwarded the pb dummy-of-the-month, but did Enoch Powell ever write his autobiography? What was its title?

    Reflections of a Statesman IIRC.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The most dramatic opening words from any US President...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XwscnjrMpY
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    of course now Ed is damned if he does move Burnham (weak, took too long, gave in to Cameron) and damned if he doesn't.....ditto Balls....

    The Burnham story in the Guardian just digs the hole deeper.

    Burnham's entire response to the report has been "stop being mean to me"

    Now we have a friendly journalist writing a friendly story in a friendly paper that "proves" people are being mean to him.

    It's desperate, desperate, stuff
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Carlotta - Chuka has enough strength within the party now, being hailed by Blair and Mandy etc, that he could turn it down and stay at business which would be better for his prospects. In any case, he backed Ed M over David M so is close to Ed anyway and I doubt Ed will move him, Cooper or Creasey is more likely
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    HYUFD said:

    Plato - Interesting comments, yes autobiogs can be interesting if written well, Dennis Healey's one of the best. I think Heffer has published a bio of Powell

    I haven't read Healey's - will give it a go. If you're generally a fan - try Michael J Fox's Lucky Man or Rob Lowe's - really gripping, funny and self-depreciating. There's a great deal more than meets the eye to both of them.

    Oh and the winner is of course David Niven - his are just gobsmacking - cheeky, witty, packed with stars of the silver screen, desperately tragic... The first - the Moons A Balloon is marvellous.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @Plato - Just googled it, and it appears to be a collection of speeches and articles with an editor. Without being pedantic (fails) don't regard that as a proper autobio.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited July 2013
    antifrank said:

    If Chuka Umunna were to replace Andy Burnham, at least there would be full continuity of wikipedia editing skills in the shadow health secretary's office.

    Good post,they talk of our chuka been next labour leader,hope he is because I have the feeling this guy wiil be a complete disaster for labour.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Have you seen this biopic of him? Quite a lot of footage/intv

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXi6TMG8hTE

    YouTube has some great archive stuff.
    JohnO said:

    @Plato - Just googled it, and it appears to be a collection of speeches and articles with an editor. Without being pedantic (fails) don't regard that as a proper autobio.

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @Plato - No, I didn't as I was working in Colombia at the time. But an enormous thank you, I won't be available for the next 45 minutes!!
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @richardDodd

    'JZ "Give Abbott a chance"..yes please.. please.'

    Well she was one of the leadership contenders & she confirmed she wasn't a token candidate.
    Maybe Ed's holding back in case he's forced to replace Balls.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Scott_P said:

    of course now Ed is damned if he does move Burnham (weak, took too long, gave in to Cameron) and damned if he doesn't.....ditto Balls....

    Burnham's entire response to the report has been "stop being mean to me"
    As Hunt pointed out, in his HoC statement, he mentioned patients nineteen times. Burnham mentioned them twice.....

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Any politician playing the Feel Sorry For Me Card is in the clarts. Apart from looking desperate, it smacks of 'its all about me - so what if thousands may have died on my watch'

    I give Mr Burnham the BP I Want My Life Back - Deepwater Award for Self-Pity.

    Gordon sometimes ended up being pitied as well - who wants to be pitied? Especially a politician? Surely it's the antitheses of their id?
    Scott_P said:

    of course now Ed is damned if he does move Burnham (weak, took too long, gave in to Cameron) and damned if he doesn't.....ditto Balls....

    The Burnham story in the Guardian just digs the hole deeper.

    Burnham's entire response to the report has been "stop being mean to me"

    Now we have a friendly journalist writing a friendly story in a friendly paper that "proves" people are being mean to him.

    It's desperate, desperate, stuff
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Tykejohnno - No, in ten years' time Chuka will probably be PM!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2013
    Plato - Yes, flicked through Rob Lowe's will look at that further and Fox's, got Niven's from a jumble sale once, but never properly read it, so will have to get down to that too
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,845
    HYUFD said:

    NoOffenceAlan - Yes, although not necessarily about being tall, Napoleon had it and was short, teaching is one job where it is probably one of the top requirements to control a class

    Of course, until relatively recently, you had to be 5' 8" to be a policeman, which is a slight flaw in the casting of the otherwise excellent David Jason in "A Touch of Frost" ( the height rule would have been in effect when "Inspector Frost" was a constable ).

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Plato - Historians rate him
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    HYUFD said:

    Tykejohnno - No, in ten years' time Chuka will probably be PM!

    Or the Labour Party's Portillo?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Niven one is perfect if you're of a certain age and being on hobnobbing terms with Vivienne Leigh et al is impressive.

    Those were real celebs when they were stars of the silver screen not the embarrassing no-knickers attention seekers of today.
    HYUFD said:

    Plato - Yes, flicked through Rob Lowe's will look at that further and Fox's, got Niven's from a jumble sale once, but never properly read it, so will have to get down to that too

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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    As a Wikipedia of (relatively) long-standing, it's strange to read about politicians' staff editing their entries. Anyone who edits knows that a large part of it is managing people who have biases of one kind or another and finding a path of "neutral point of view" in the middle. It was when I was called a fascist and communist sympathiser (by different people) over one article I knew I'd got the right balance.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I understand mortality data.

    Above average mortality often goes with substandard care as at Stafford. No doubt more detail will emerge in time.

    If these hospitals were just statistically outliers they would not have been consistently in the worst quartile.

    SMR figures are not the whole story, but only a fool would dismiss them out of hand.
    tim said:

    @tim


    I prefer to see things in the round. You wouldn't have a good word for Hunt or anyone in the Coalition (unless they were a Lib Dem attacking the Govt), so why would anyone take what you have to say as gospel?
    I am sure most on here look as what you write with considerable suspicion. You have form.
    The truth about the NHS is somewhere in the middle, it certainly isn't anywhere near where you want to try and pin the blame.

    "as from what I recall all the NHS failings that the equiry was investigating predate May 2010?"

    As clueless as the people who couldn't understand basic mortality statistics.
    Pointless continuing
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,882
    Probably already posted, but good news happens so rarely it should posted a lot when we get it;

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10192732/Lift-for-Osborne-as-economic-growth-accelerates.html
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,882
    JackW said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jackw

    " For my part I know who I want to remain in charge until 2020."

    Sorry to inform you coalition will not be on the ballot paper .

    You will have to put your cross as I suspect you always have Conservative.

    Incorrect.

    My GE voting 92-10 as previously noted on PB :

    92 Con .. 97 Lab .. 01 Lab .. 05 Abstain .. 10 Con

    Did you go Liberal or Tory in 1906 though?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited July 2013
    GIN1138 said:

    Probably already posted, but good news happens so rarely it should posted a lot when we get it;

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10192732/Lift-for-Osborne-as-economic-growth-accelerates.html

    And the labour response shouting from the sidelines will be -

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    GDP figures on Thursday (0.6% expected) will add to Tory cheer. Labour message should be a "recovery for the few, not the many".

    Laughable.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Plato - Yes, though there are still stars around, Michael Douglas, Morgan Freeman, Judi Dench, Al Pacino, Martin Sheen etc and the likes of James Deen and Marilyn Monroe were hardly shrinking violets either!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    GIN1138 said:

    Probably already posted, but good news happens so rarely it should posted a lot when we get it;

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10192732/Lift-for-Osborne-as-economic-growth-accelerates.html

    And the labour response shouting from the side lines will be -

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    GDP figures on Thursday (0.6% expected) will add to Tory cheer. Labour message should be a "recovery for the few, not the many".

    And this makes precisely zero impact as its all empty rhetoric 'they would say that wouldn't they'.

    Until Labour has something to say - this is all stuff and nonsense or predistribution as someone would say down the Dog & Duck.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Carlotta - No David M was the Labour Party's Portillo. Both had the misfortune to be at their peak just when the opposing party had a fresh and charismatic leader newly arrived, Blair and Cameron, while Chuka will peak just as the Cameron era comes to an end
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    NoOffenceAlan - Indeed
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I understand mortality data.

    Above average mortality often goes with substandard care as at Stafford.

    I think most people get that, I dont remember anyone dismissing the report out of hand.

    It was posts claiming either (1) that 13,000 people died unnecessarily or (2) the issues related exclusively to the time Labour was in power that people were taking issue with.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,882
    edited July 2013

    GIN1138 said:

    Probably already posted, but good news happens so rarely it should posted a lot when we get it;

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10192732/Lift-for-Osborne-as-economic-growth-accelerates.html

    And the labour response shouting from the sidelines will be -

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    GDP figures on Thursday (0.6% expected) will add to Tory cheer. Labour message should be a "recovery for the few, not the many".

    Laughable.

    Labour has pinned it's entire strategy (such as there is a "strategy") on two things;

    1. No recovery.

    2. Staying at 35% in the polls by retaining Lib-Dem voters.

    Their economic strategy is looking increasingly like a busted flush. Guess it's all down to Lib-Dem switchers now...
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    HYUFD said:

    Plato - Yes, though there are still stars around, Michael Douglas, Morgan Freeman, Judi Dench, Al Pacino, Martin Sheen etc and the likes of James Deen and Marilyn Monroe were hardly shrinking violets either!

    Have you seen Behind the Candelabra with Michael Douglas as Liberace? He very convincing as is Matt Damon as his boyfriend. For two straight blokes, their chemistry is very convincing.

    How either of them were persuaded to do this - or Rob Lowe as a creep plastic surgeon is remarkable.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    HYUFD said:

    Carlotta - No David M was the Labour Party's Portillo. Both had the misfortune to be at their peak just when the opposing party had a fresh and charismatic leader newly arrived, Blair and Cameron, while Chuka will peak just as the Cameron era comes to an end

    He will need a lot of political script writers,For all top politicians they need to thinking on they feet.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Tykejohnno - Uh, George W Bush?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Plato - Yes, saw it last week at the local arts centre funnily enough, all 3 gave excellent performances
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    HYUFD said:

    Tykejohnno - Uh, George W Bush?

    Brilliant - George W Bush and Chuka Umunna in the same political standard league,you rate him that highly ;-)

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2013
    Tykejohnno - Well, Dubya did win the presidency twice and I simply said Chuka would be PM, not the greatest statesman of the 21st century! Anyway off for a swim
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @Plato - What a stunningly superlative documentary (as most from Michael Cockerell are). Powell was a mesmeric and compelling figure but one (IMHO) who overall did not serve his countrymen well in his public life.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I rather liked this re crime stats

    "The annual crime figures were released on Thursday, and with them deepened one of the impenetrable mysteries of the age. Once again, as it does year upon the year, the number of recorded offences declined sharply. No one has much clue why, when you would have lumped the mortgage on crime flourishing during the gravest recession in memory, the opposite has happened.

    Myriad theories have been adduced for a development warmly welcomed by everyone except our impoverished crooks and the police. Some point to the extraction of brain-damaging lead from petrol, others finger the proliferation of CCTV cameras, improved car security, the logistical challenge of lugging ever more gigantic tellies through broken windows, a fall in alcohol abuse among the young, the rise in God-fearing immigrants, and so on. For what it’s worth (less than zero, if we’re honest), I am convinced that this is an admittedly curious sign of the End of Days...

    Glancing at the headline in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph, a new and intriguing theory occurred. “Crime falls to record low despite police cuts”, this read. But I couldn’t suppress the sense that this would have benefited from a tweak, and that “Crime falls to record low because of police cuts” is closer to the truth... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10190949/Doughnuts-are-the-key-to-falling-crime.html


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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jackw

    " For my part I know who I want to remain in charge until 2020."

    Sorry to inform you coalition will not be on the ballot paper .

    You will have to put your cross as I suspect you always have Conservative.

    Incorrect.

    My GE voting 92-10 as previously noted on PB :

    92 Con .. 97 Lab .. 01 Lab .. 05 Abstain .. 10 Con

    Did you go Liberal or Tory in 1906 though?
    You're in remarkable fine mood for a fellow facing interesting times at Auchentennach !!

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    JohnO said:

    @Plato - What a stunningly superlative documentary (as most from Michael Cockerell are). Powell was a mesmeric and compelling figure but one (IMHO) who overall did not serve his countrymen well in his public life.

    Isn't it just. Missing out on his true first love and marrying his devoted secretary [a life where everyday is like a university lecture] just summed him up for me.

    He was born 100yrs too late to be Viceroy. But what an epic one he'd have been.
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    Might there be some creative accountancy going on?
    GBH recorded as ABH
    ABH recorded as Assault
    Criminal damage recorded as intelligence, etc etc.
    IIRC Plod has previous for this type of thing
    Plato said:

    I rather liked this re crime stats

    "The annual crime figures were released on Thursday, and with them deepened one of the impenetrable mysteries of the age. Once again, as it does year upon the year, the number of recorded offences declined sharply. No one has much clue why, when you would have lumped the mortgage on crime flourishing during the gravest recession in memory, the opposite has happened.

    Myriad theories have been adduced for a development warmly welcomed by everyone except our impoverished crooks and the police. Some point to the extraction of brain-damaging lead from petrol, others finger the proliferation of CCTV cameras, improved car security, the logistical challenge of lugging ever more gigantic tellies through broken windows, a fall in alcohol abuse among the young, the rise in God-fearing immigrants, and so on. For what it’s worth (less than zero, if we’re honest), I am convinced that this is an admittedly curious sign of the End of Days...

    Glancing at the headline in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph, a new and intriguing theory occurred. “Crime falls to record low despite police cuts”, this read. But I couldn’t suppress the sense that this would have benefited from a tweak, and that “Crime falls to record low because of police cuts” is closer to the truth... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10190949/Doughnuts-are-the-key-to-falling-crime.html


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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    HYUFD said:

    Carlotta - No David M was the Labour Party's Portillo. Both had the misfortune to be at their peak just when the opposing party had a fresh and charismatic leader newly arrived, Blair and Cameron, while Chuka will peak just as the Cameron era comes to an end

    Good point....and his family has a history of tax 'optimisation' too - which would now appear to be de rigueur for Labour leaders.....not just their donors.....

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    I am very dubious about specific crime comparisons as the Home Office fiddled with them endlessly. When its a violent crime to get a *red mark* from being slapped - it makes a nonsense of the whole common understanding of it.

    There are loads of similar examples about what's classed as a sex/hate crime etc. When there is an disconnect between what seems fair and what's categorised at a technical level - the public lose faith.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Plato said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plato - Yes, though there are still stars around, Michael Douglas, Morgan Freeman, Judi Dench, Al Pacino, Martin Sheen etc and the likes of James Deen and Marilyn Monroe were hardly shrinking violets either!

    Have you seen Behind the Candelabra with Michael Douglas as Liberace? He very convincing as is Matt Damon as his boyfriend. For two straight blokes, their chemistry is very convincing.

    How either of them were persuaded to do this - or Rob Lowe as a creep plastic surgeon is remarkable.
    I think its called 'acting'.....agree, excellent performances all round - pity its not up for Oscars - but they got a total of 15 Emmy nominations....

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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited July 2013
    The British Crime Survey (now the Crime Survey for England and Wales - it only ever covered E&W) asks whether you've been a victim of a particular crime. Much less room for fiddling, unless you think that the public feel under more pressure now than they did ten years ago to systematically depress results.

    Secondly, the murder rate has almost halved, which would be much more difficult to fake.

    Third, the overall falls - around a third for violent crimes - are too large to easily be the result of creative accounting.

    Fourth - they fall year on year, which would make fakery more complex.

    Fifth - the number of offences record by the CSEW is still large. e.g. 1.8m theft offences. This suggests there is little systematic under-reporting. (Rape might be different.)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Shortage of tin foil in the Watson household.....

    "David Cameron inadvertently gave something away in the interview. Major decisions on policy are being taken in space beyond the reach of the Freedom of Information Act. We will never know whether tobacco lobbyist Lynton Crosby was in the room when the PM took the decision to reject plans to restrict the tobacco industry."

    http://www.tom-watson.co.uk/2013/07/david-camerons-tell-on-marr-this-morning
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Grandiose said:

    The British Crime Survey (now the Crime Survey for England and Wales - it only ever covered E&W) asks whether you've been a victim of a particular crime. Much less room for fiddling, unless you think that the public feel under more pressure now than they did ten years ago to systematically depress results.

    Secondly, the murder rate has almost halved, which would be much more difficult to fake.

    Third, the overall falls - around a third for violent crimes - are too large to easily be the result of creative accounting.

    Are all the crimes related to the grooming gangs going to be added back in to the figures for the ten years or so they were being ignored?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Cllr Sarah Jones selected by Labour in Croydon Central.

    https://twitter.com/davidwhite020/status/358941543157080064/photo/1
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd be in favour of using NHS data on admissions re violent crime attacks for ones resulting in injuries - stab/glassing and mugging victims are probably more likely to go to A&E than a police station in many parts of the country.

    That A&E are better at keeping stabbing/gunshot victims alive will also have a knock on effect re murders.
    Grandiose said:

    The British Crime Survey (now the Crime Survey for England and Wales - it only ever covered E&W) asks whether you've been a victim of a particular crime. Much less room for fiddling, unless you think that the public feel under more pressure now than they did ten years ago to systematically depress results.

    Secondly, the murder rate has almost halved, which would be much more difficult to fake.

    Third, the overall falls - around a third for violent crimes - are too large to easily be the result of creative accounting.

    Fourth - they fall year on year, which would make fakery more complex.

    Fifth - the number of offences record by the CSEW is still large. e.g. 1.8m theft offences. This suggests there is little systematic under-reporting. (Rape might be different.)

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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/boys-quizzed-over-500-rapes-a-year-by-gangs-8335165.html

    1000s of gang rapes in London from a gang culture the BBC and political class pretend doesn't exist.

    It could easily be at least halved if the police could deal with it openly but like the grooming gangs the police can't do that without public support and they can't get public support unless the BBC and political class stop covering it up.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited July 2013
    MrJones said:

    Grandiose said:

    The British Crime Survey (now the Crime Survey for England and Wales - it only ever covered E&W) asks whether you've been a victim of a particular crime. Much less room for fiddling, unless you think that the public feel under more pressure now than they did ten years ago to systematically depress results.

    Secondly, the murder rate has almost halved, which would be much more difficult to fake.

    Third, the overall falls - around a third for violent crimes - are too large to easily be the result of creative accounting.

    Are all the crimes related to the grooming gangs going to be added back in to the figures for the ten years or so they were being ignored?
    They are added, although I'm not sure whether they are added to the year they took place or the year they were logged as crimes. So, for example, I do know that Shipman's killings were all added as homicides in the year of the inquest (2002-3, IIRC). That is for recorded crime - the CSEW, being based on respondents, will not change - but the CSEW doesn't cover sexual offences.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013

    Shortage of tin foil in the Watson household.....

    "David Cameron inadvertently gave something away in the interview. Major decisions on policy are being taken in space beyond the reach of the Freedom of Information Act. We will never know whether tobacco lobbyist Lynton Crosby was in the room when the PM took the decision to reject plans to restrict the tobacco industry."

    http://www.tom-watson.co.uk/2013/07/david-camerons-tell-on-marr-this-morning

    Crick was at it earlier - it doesn't change the fact that normal voters don't give a toss. Why the Lobby are obsessing about this is beyond me - they know it shifts no votes, we had it tested to destruction re McBride and That Bloke We Can't Talk About.

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Another big question is whether Philip Morris paid Lynton Crosby's firm an extra bonus after Govt's cig packaging decision. If so, how much?

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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,845
    The sheer number of women I see jogging in the evenings nowadays (and this is west central Scotland) would suggest that people feel the streets are a lot safer than they used to be.
    I think one of the contributory factors to the drop in crime is the advent of personal technology such as internet-enabled phones and gaming consoles - young people (particularly young males) just don't get bored so easily.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Reading Gilligan today it would appear that Campbell made the final decision to go to war in Iraq.

    Does he not remember the vote that was held in Parliament?
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    The sheer number of women I see jogging in the evenings nowadays (and this is west central Scotland) would suggest that people feel the streets are a lot safer than they used to be.
    I think one of the contributory factors to the drop in crime is the advent of personal technology such as internet-enabled phones and gaming consoles - young people (particularly young males) just don't get bored so easily.

    Crime is mostly a male 16-24 thing.

    If you imagine a hypothetical country where the number of young males is declining in 3/4 of the country and increasing in 1/4 of the country then overall crime will be going down.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've been watching this again and again - I didn't like it much at the time - but in retrospect its epic.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=beCYGm1vMJ0
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    On topic...

    Mike, what yoou are missing here is salience (funny that as you are very focused on it in other topics).

    Of course if you stop someone in the street and say 'what do you think about plain packaging for fags' they will think fags are bad therefore packaging makes me sound like a good person.

    I think this is actually a great topic for the Tories. (1) Very few people will change their votes (2) those LDs who will be more encouraged to vote Labour are unlikely to be Tory votters anyway. (3) It allows Tories tberal/small state - appealing to bothe Orange Bookers and UKIP. So helps the narrative a lot at a marginal cost in terms of actual votes.

    Apologies for any typos - on my blackberry. My daughter didn't realise that reading the Spectator's Coffee House didn't involve actual coffee so currently sans laptop...
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:

    On topic...

    Mike, what yoou are missing here is salience (funny that as you are very focused on it in other topics).

    You probably should have read the thread from the start, Charles.

    @Tim
    What we won't know Tim is how much salience there is in these issues

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Plato said:

    I've been watching this again and again - I didn't like it much at the time - but in retrospect its epic.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=beCYGm1vMJ0

    Why Plato? I've never had time for this form of comedy. Just because Mel Smith died I'm not altering my opinion of him; in fact in retrospect its still pretty gross.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    MikeK said:

    Plato said:

    I've been watching this again and again - I didn't like it much at the time - but in retrospect its epic.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=beCYGm1vMJ0

    Why Plato? I've never had time for this form of comedy. Just because Mel Smith died I'm not altering my opinion of him; in fact in retrospect its still pretty gross.
    Agree just wishful thinking because he is dead, it is still crap and he was not funny in general, same applies to his buddy.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Phil Mickelson has grabbed the Open Championship by three balls. A win well deserved, he played the last 5 holes at 4 under par.
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