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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just one council by-election tonight – a CON defence in the mi

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    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Wasn't the conservative in Sleaford a doctor

    Big G

    The best thing out of Sleaford are the Mods, the Sleaford Mods.....Fox will know them....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFz9EdygOtM

    Please do not let your better half listen to them mind.....

    Seriously, they are an excellent band, in the best traditions of challenging lefty protest music....

    Austerity Dogs......I love it....


    Sadly Tyson neither my wife or I are not into music other than classical and some inspiring hymns.

    When my wife was much younger she played the organ at the Deep Sea Mission in her fishing community

    Best
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Wasn't the conservative in Sleaford a doctor

    Big G

    The best thing out of Sleaford are the Mods, the Sleaford Mods.....Fox will know them....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFz9EdygOtM

    Please do not let your better half listen to them mind.....

    Seriously, they are an excellent band, in the best traditions of challenging lefty protest music....

    Austerity Dogs......I love it....


    Though neither comes from Sleaford!

    Their film is good too. This excerpt gives a flavour:

    https://youtu.be/qz4s9v5R0HQ
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,358
    edited January 2017
    Just noticed Sky are beginning to wind up their live coverage of Trumps inauguration.

    I should imagine for the next 24 hours and beyond the left around the World are going to go into collective grief and depression.

    Probably as I would if Corbyn was elected PM
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    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    Quite a plus in Copeland, I would think.

    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/
    To be fair she seems to not remember being a remainer. Maybe something in the water up their rots the brain...
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    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    Quite a plus in Copeland, I would think.

    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/
    To be fair she seems to not remember being a remainer. Maybe something in the water up their rots the brain...

    In view of this weeks coverage of Theresa May's Brexit coverage if she is a remainer I would expect her to struggle
  • Options
    good grief I got the wrong there. I blame the flu.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    Quite a plus in Copeland, I would think.

    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/
    To be fair she seems to not remember being a remainer. Maybe something in the water up their rots the brain...
    Not sure why you say that. She tweeted this 2 days ago:

    https://twitter.com/GillTroughton/status/821272813478838272?s=09

    I cannot see the LDs going in hard on this one, indeed it may well show some signs of a tacit electoral pact.
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    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    Quite a plus in Copeland, I would think.

    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/
    To be fair she seems to not remember being a remainer. Maybe something in the water up their rots the brain...
    Not sure why you say that. She tweeted this 2 days ago:

    https://twitter.com/GillTroughton/status/821272813478838272?s=09

    I cannot see the LDs going in hard on this one, indeed it may well show some signs of a tacit electoral pact.
    Based on the statement in the article you linked. Nobody was mentioning she was a remainer. You had to look at her twitter.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    John_M said:
    A genuine local choice, will make an excellent MP.

    That depends on what you consider the role of an MP should be.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,363
    NewsTaker said:


    The fairest way is to have a base level of care for all. Something such as a shared room, shared bathroom etc etc in a 3* basic Care Home costing £500 a week (south) and then anyone can top up to have better levels of accomodation. People needing full additiona; medical support (such as dementia) get that part free.

    That's not that different from how it's supposed to work now. You pay for yourself down to £23,000 capital, then the council will pay for the cheapest more or less reasonable available local care home place. I've just been helping a relative in Cornwall, who was initially in an emergency situation placed in a home costing £800/week but has moved to one costing £600/week (with privatye en suite) which he actually prefers. The council is paying the £600, and he paid the extra £200. Cornwall council did a terrific job at lightning speed (the decision took just 48 hours) and I've no criticisms of them in any way at all: even now he's settled, the local council officials continue to check that he's comfortable, sort out some residual issues from his former place, etc.

    The problem is that places are few in many counties and getting fewer, because the approved costs barely cover what the private providers feel able to offer to meet the CQC criteria. When I was checking out homes near Penzance for him, I really struggled to find a decent place and felt I'd just struck lucky when I found one that happened to have one room free.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2017

    ..
    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/

    Of course they've noticed, but she can hardly claim not to support her own leader now, so it hardly matters.

    Nonetheless, she seems a good candidate. Labour under Corbyn do seem at least to be getting that bit right - selecting credible local candidates.

    I'm on Labour in this by-election. Still looks tremendous value at the current 2.76 on t' fair.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    Quite a plus in Copeland, I would think.

    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/
    To be fair she seems to not remember being a remainer. Maybe something in the water up their rots the brain...
    Not sure why you say that. She tweeted this 2 days ago:

    https://twitter.com/GillTroughton/status/821272813478838272?s=09

    I cannot see the LDs going in hard on this one, indeed it may well show some signs of a tacit electoral pact.
    Based on the statement in the article you linked. Nobody was mentioning she was a remainer. You had to look at her twitter.
    You are missing out the fact that I am right and you were wrong ;-)
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    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    Quite a plus in Copeland, I would think.

    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/
    To be fair she seems to not remember being a remainer. Maybe something in the water up their rots the brain...
    Not sure why you say that. She tweeted this 2 days ago:

    https://twitter.com/GillTroughton/status/821272813478838272?s=09

    I cannot see the LDs going in hard on this one, indeed it may well show some signs of a tacit electoral pact.
    Based on the statement in the article you linked. Nobody was mentioning she was a remainer. You had to look at her twitter.
    You are missing out the fact that I am right and you were wrong ;-)
    very likely! Did I mention I have the flu?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    NewsTaker said:


    The fairest way is to have a base level of care for all. Something such as a shared room, shared bathroom etc etc in a 3* basic Care Home costing £500 a week (south) and then anyone can top up to have better levels of accomodation. People needing full additiona; medical support (such as dementia) get that part free.

    That's not that different from how it's supposed to work now. You pay for yourself down to £23,000 capital, then the council will pay for the cheapest more or less reasonable available local care home place. I've just been helping a relative in Cornwall, who was initially in an emergency situation placed in a home costing £800/week but has moved to one costing £600/week (with privatye en suite) which he actually prefers. The council is paying the £600, and he paid the extra £200. Cornwall council did a terrific job at lightning speed (the decision took just 48 hours) and I've no criticisms of them in any way at all: even now he's settled, the local council officials continue to check that he's comfortable, sort out some residual issues from his former place, etc.

    The problem is that places are few in many counties and getting fewer, because the approved costs barely cover what the private providers feel able to offer to meet the CQC criteria. When I was checking out homes near Penzance for him, I really struggled to find a decent place and felt I'd just struck lucky when I found one that happened to have one room free.
    One aspect in the social care funding crisis is funding, but the other side is costs. The rise in the minimum wage in a workforce staffed by a largely low paid immigrant workforce is squeezing both standards and budgets (government and individual).
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    NewsTaker said:


    The fairest way is to have a base level of care for all. Something such as a shared room, shared bathroom etc etc in a 3* basic Care Home costing £500 a week (south) and then anyone can top up to have better levels of accomodation. People needing full additiona; medical support (such as dementia) get that part free.

    That's not that different from how it's supposed to work now. You pay for yourself down to £23,000 capital, then the council will pay for the cheapest more or less reasonable available local care home place. I've just been helping a relative in Cornwall, who was initially in an emergency situation placed in a home costing £800/week but has moved to one costing £600/week (with privatye en suite) which he actually prefers. The council is paying the £600, and he paid the extra £200. Cornwall council did a terrific job at lightning speed (the decision took just 48 hours) and I've no criticisms of them in any way at all: even now he's settled, the local council officials continue to check that he's comfortable, sort out some residual issues from his former place, etc.

    The problem is that places are few in many counties and getting fewer, because the approved costs barely cover what the private providers feel able to offer to meet the CQC criteria. When I was checking out homes near Penzance for him, I really struggled to find a decent place and felt I'd just struck lucky when I found one that happened to have one room free.
    You (and he) were very fortunate. Glad to hear it.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    ..
    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/

    Of course they've noticed, but she can hardly claim not to support her own leader now, so it hardly matters.

    Nonetheless, she seems a good candidate. Labour under Corbyn do seem at least to be getting that bit right - selecting credible local candidates.

    I'm on Labour in this by-election. Still looks tremendous value at the current 2.76 on t' fair.
    She campaigned for Smith, but accepted the win by Corbyn, and I think will take the same line on Brexit
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    Sean_F said:

    As if Obama is a 'hasbeen'. I think Obama, who leaves office with a 60% approval rating will a vocal in opposing the actions of Trump in the coming years. In recent interviews he's implied so. He could very well be more influential as a former President. And there's plently of ground to oppose Trump, with much of the way he's conducted his transition period opposed by Americans.

    Meanwhile it's looking still pretty likely that Merkel will be German Chancellor after the German elections in September.

    Not many politicians leave office with 60% approval.

    Fairly nailed on that Trump will not!
    Trump's only on 40% now, and this is the 'honeymoon' period of the Presidency. Even George W. Bush, with all the controversy surrounding the 2000 election had a 60% approval rating at the start of his Presidency.
    Doesn't matter. Sean Trende has some excellent Articles on RCP. Rural/small/medium town America is shifting massively Republican, as big city America shifts Democratic. And that hurts the Democrats, as it puts the House and State Assemblies out of reach. It also hurts them in the Senate, as small rural States get the same representation as big urban States.
    It does matter. These states will only continue to 'shift' Republican if they're happy with what Trump does. If Trump doesn't deliver on what he's promised then we'll see whether these states are all shifting Republican. Politics is cyclical.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    Thornberry on QT saying EU migrants come over here, live 10 to a house, undercut the natives etc etc

    Hope the cheques in the post!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    As if Obama is a 'hasbeen'. I think Obama, who leaves office with a 60% approval rating will a vocal in opposing the actions of Trump in the coming years. In recent interviews he's implied so. He could very well be more influential as a former President. And there's plently of ground to oppose Trump, with much of the way he's conducted his transition period opposed by Americans.

    Meanwhile it's looking still pretty likely that Merkel will be German Chancellor after the German elections in September.

    Not many politicians leave office with 60% approval.

    Fairly nailed on that Trump will not!
    Trump's only on 40% now, and this is the 'honeymoon' period of the Presidency. Even George W. Bush, with all the controversy surrounding the 2000 election had a 60% approval rating at the start of his Presidency.
    Doesn't matter. Sean Trende has some excellent Articles on RCP. Rural/small/medium town America is shifting massively Republican, as big city America shifts Democratic. And that hurts the Democrats, as it puts the House and State Assemblies out of reach. It also hurts them in the Senate, as small rural States get the same representation as big urban States.
    It does matter. These states will only continue to 'shift' Republican if they're happy with what Trump does. If Trump doesn't deliver on what he's promised then we'll see whether these states are all shifting Republican. Politics is cyclical.
    There are also the demographic trends on ethnicity working against the Republicans.

    The Democrats need to support the workers not the bosses and they will be fine.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited January 2017
    Sean_F said:



    Doesn't matter. Sean Trende has some excellent Articles on RCP. Rural/small/medium town America is shifting massively Republican, as big city America shifts Democratic. And that hurts the Democrats, as it puts the House and State Assemblies out of reach. It also hurts them in the Senate, as small rural States get the same representation as big urban States.

    It does matter. These states will only continue to 'shift' Republican if they're happy with what Trump does. If Trump doesn't deliver on what he's promised then we'll see whether these states are all shifting Republican. Politics is cyclical.

    Just reading Sean Trende now, his last article of 2016 states this:

    The pessimistic view is that Trump turns out to be everything he seemed to be when he was at his worst on the trail: erratic, boisterous, and at times mean-spirited. If this is the case, the Republican majorities might not survive the midterm elections, and he might lose in a landslide in 2020.

    So even Trende implies that public opinion on Trump does matter.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/10/trumps_first_term_and_perhaps_a_second.html
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    As if Obama is a 'hasbeen'. I think Obama, who leaves office with a 60% approval rating will a vocal in opposing the actions of Trump in the coming years. In recent interviews he's implied so. He could very well be more influential as a former President. And there's plently of ground to oppose Trump, with much of the way he's conducted his transition period opposed by Americans.

    Meanwhile it's looking still pretty likely that Merkel will be German Chancellor after the German elections in September.

    Not many politicians leave office with 60% approval.

    Fairly nailed on that Trump will not!
    Trump's only on 40% now, and this is the 'honeymoon' period of the Presidency. Even George W. Bush, with all the controversy surrounding the 2000 election had a 60% approval rating at the start of his Presidency.
    Doesn't matter. Sean Trende has some excellent Articles on RCP. Rural/small/medium town America is shifting massively Republican, as big city America shifts Democratic. And that hurts the Democrats, as it puts the House and State Assemblies out of reach. It also hurts them in the Senate, as small rural States get the same representation as big urban States.
    It does matter. These states will only continue to 'shift' Republican if they're happy with what Trump does. If Trump doesn't deliver on what he's promised then we'll see whether these states are all shifting Republican. Politics is cyclical.
    There are also the demographic trends on ethnicity working against the Republicans.

    The Democrats need to support the workers not the bosses and they will be fine.
    Yep, I agree.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    Quite a plus in Copeland, I would think.

    The local tories don't seem to have noticed that she campaigned against Corbyn last summer:

    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2017/01/19/gillian-troughton-selected-labour-party-candidate-copeland-election/
    To be fair she seems to not remember being a remainer. Maybe something in the water up their rots the brain...

    In view of this weeks coverage of Theresa May's Brexit coverage if she is a remainer I would expect her to struggle
    Why would that be? Theresa May was a Remainer!
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    PaganPagan Posts: 259
    tyson said:

    tlg86 said:

    Backed Labour at 13/8 in Copeland, I think that looks a sensible choice of candidate.

    Early election, strong local candidate, pro nuclear, long track record of local service, active Christian, health campaigner.

    Good value. Second doctor elected for Labour in a year methinks.
    Mostly good....but belief in supernatural, really archaic entities is a bit of a problem;

    I can just about cope with modern religions like Scientology and Trekkies....but anything that comes before, Islam and even before, Christianity....a bit bonkers....
    like we care what you think a man without morals, scruples or principles who pontificates about the racism/ genderism etc of others while being a rent seeking parasite living in a foreign country
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    Knaresborough: Con 577, LD 451, Green 139, UKIP 106. Con hold.
    Faversham: LD 300, Lab 226, Con 210, UKIP 121, Ind 102, Green 57. LD gain.
This discussion has been closed.