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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Le Pen says Russia, France and the US should form an alliance.

    What position should Britgov take?

    She has no power to form an alliance and isn't going to have any. The question is what Merkel thinks about a US/Russia alliance.
    She's three priests' throat-slittings on social media away from the presidency.
    Report that Trump has appointed a Brexiteer as his Ambassador to the EU
    In what sense can an American be a Brexiteer?
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Le Pen says Russia, France and the US should form an alliance.

    What position should Britgov take?

    She has no power to form an alliance and isn't going to have any. The question is what Merkel thinks about a US/Russia alliance.
    She's three priests' throat-slittings on social media away from the presidency.
    Report that Trump has appointed a Brexiteer as his Ambassador to the EU
    And it is not Farage
    It's Ted Malloch, he appeared on Newsnight with Mike the other night.
    Is he pro Brexit
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    TSE's opposition to Grammar Schools has nothing to do with their merits, it's purely because Mrs May proposed an expansion of them. If Cameron and Osborne had advocated them he'd be their most enthusiastic advocate. As for his puerile comment to Floater, pathetic.

    Bollocks.

    All the evidence is that grammar schools screw and fail to help the poor.

    Not my fault you ignore the plethora of evidence.

    More free schools, Michael Gove had it right.
    Grammar school worked to help me.

    My mum brought up my sister and I on four quid a week, in the 60's. I think that qualifies as poor.
    you don't come from Yorkshire do you?
    Yorkshire? We used to DREAM of coming from Yorkshire....

    But I had FSM. And I went to a Grammar school. And I was the first in my family to go to University.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe1a1wHxTyo
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Le Pen says Russia, France and the US should form an alliance.

    What position should Britgov take?

    She has no power to form an alliance and isn't going to have any. The question is what Merkel thinks about a US/Russia alliance.
    She's three priests' throat-slittings on social media away from the presidency.
    Report that Trump has appointed a Brexiteer as his Ambassador to the EU
    In what sense can an American be a Brexiteer?
    He supports UK's case to leave the EU. If this is true it could be a big moment
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    In all seriousness, do the Tories REALLY want to win this? If it endangers Corbyn that is BAD for them. Is it worth gaining one more MP in the Commons, to lose their greatest electoral asset, the Labour leader himself?

    I'd say it's a pretty close call, and the Tories will be oddly satisfied with a very close second.

    Of course they do as it will give a mandate for Article 50 and a mandate for May for Brexit and shutup all the Remoaners who are still crowing about Richmond Park, given Corbyn has comfortably been re-elected by Labour members he is not going anywhere soon
    True. I was speculating too idly perhaps.

    But Corbyn really IS the Tories' greatest asset. They really do not want him gone. At some point they will have to start maneuvering to keep him where he is. Give him a few fake but easy victories.
    Maybe but it would
    Hmm. I think Tories have to guard against complacency.

    The Tories, paradoxically, need the polls to improve for Labour, for a year or so.
    Starmer will wipe the wooden smile off Theresa's face.
    Starmer is far too rightwing for current Labour members
    How the hell do you know ? You are a Tory.
    you're entitled to a view on god even if you're an atheist
    Though it is not likely to be a well informed view!
    will god be the judge of that?
    All the evidence of the Gospels is that ignorance of God is not a bar to winding up in the right place. I would cite the parable of the Good Samaritan, and of the Romsn Centurion as examples. Excellent knowledge of theology would not save the Pharisees or Sanhedrin.

    In summary, much of Jesus's teaching can be conensed to: Intellectual knowledge of God is no substitute for the heartfelt internal experience, and indeed is often an obstacle to be overcome.

    Here endeth tonights Bible study!

    is that a yes or a no?
    Yes, God will be the judge.
    Good luck with that
    I am not certain of the outcome, but am certain that the judgement will be correct. No appeal to a higher court is possible in any case!
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Le Pen says Russia, France and the US should form an alliance.

    What position should Britgov take?

    She has no power to form an alliance and isn't going to have any. The question is what Merkel thinks about a US/Russia alliance.
    She's three priests' throat-slittings on social media away from the presidency.
    Report that Trump has appointed a Brexiteer as his Ambassador to the EU
    And it is not Farage
    It's Ted Malloch, he appeared on Newsnight with Mike the other night.
    Is he pro Brexit
    you should catch up on catch up. Trump has a sense of humour. He out-Farages Farage. Fantastic choice.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    edited January 2017
    This is going to be like catnip for some Corbynites

    The Israeli Embassy made a shocking vow to ‘take down’ Boris Johnson’s Foreign Office deputy, a secret film reveals today.

    The bombshell footage, covertly filmed in a London restaurant and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, shows a senior diplomat making the astonishing threat to target Sir Alan Duncan.

    Extraordinarily, he is egged on by a senior aide to another Conservative Minister, Robert Halfon.

    The video comes in a film claiming to expose the way that the Israeli government has ‘infiltrated’ both the Conservative and Labour parties via its embassy in the UK, using secret cash and covert support.

    Further footage shows the Israeli diplomat, intelligence expert Shai Masot, telling senior Labour MP Joan Ryan that he has obtained ‘more than £1 million’ to pay for sympathetic Labour MPs to visit Israel. Mr Masot also mocks ‘crazy’ Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his ‘weirdo’ supporters.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4098082/Astonishing-undercover-video-captures-diplomat-conspiring-rival-MP-s-aide-smear-Deputy-Foreign-Secretary.html
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,313
    edited January 2017
    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Le Pen says Russia, France and the US should form an alliance.

    What position should Britgov take?

    She has no power to form an alliance and isn't going to have any. The question is what Merkel thinks about a US/Russia alliance.
    She's three priests' throat-slittings on social media away from the presidency.
    Report that Trump has appointed a Brexiteer as his Ambassador to the EU
    In what sense can an American be a Brexiteer?
    We'll be at the front of the queue as opposed to Obama's "back of the queue"?
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    In all seriousness, do the Tories REALLY want to win this? If it endangers Corbyn that is BAD for them. Is it worth gaining one more MP in the Commons, to lose their greatest electoral asset, the Labour leader himself?

    I'd say it's a pretty close call, and the Tories will be oddly satisfied with a very close second.

    Of course they do as it will give a mandate for Article 50 and a mandate for May for Brexit and shutup all the Remoaners who are still crowing about Richmond Park, given Corbyn has comfortably been re-elected by Labour members he is not going anywhere soon
    True. I was speculating too idly perhaps.

    But Corbyn really IS the Tories' greatest asset. They really do not want him gone. At some point they will have to start maneuvering to keep him where he is. Give him a few fake but easy victories.
    Maybe but it would
    Hmm. I think Tories have to guard against complacency.

    The Tories, paradoxically, need the polls to improve for Labour, for a year or so.
    Starmer will wipe the wooden smile off Theresa's face.
    Starmer is far too rightwing for current Labour members
    How the hell do you know ? You are a Tory.
    you're entitled to a view on god even if you're an atheist
    Though it is not likely to be a well informed view!
    will god be the judge of that?
    All the evidence of the Gospels is that ignorance of God is not a bar to winding up in the right place. I would cite the parable of the Good Samaritan, and of the Romsn Centurion as examples. Excellent knowledge of theology would not save the Pharisees or Sanhedrin.

    In summary, much of Jesus's teaching can be conensed to: Intellectual knowledge of God is no substitute for the heartfelt internal experience, and indeed is often an obstacle to be overcome.

    Here endeth tonights Bible study!

    is that a yes or a no?
    Yes, God will be the judge.
    Good luck with that
    I am not certain of the outcome, but am certain that the judgement will be correct. No appeal to a higher court is possible in any case!
    I apologise for my flippancy
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Le Pen says Russia, France and the US should form an alliance.

    What position should Britgov take?

    She has no power to form an alliance and isn't going to have any. The question is what Merkel thinks about a US/Russia alliance.
    She's three priests' throat-slittings on social media away from the presidency.
    Report that Trump has appointed a Brexiteer as his Ambassador to the EU
    In what sense can an American be a Brexiteer?
    We'll be at the front of the queue as opposed to Obama's "back of the queue"?
    I don't think we'll have to queue
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    In all seriousness, do the Tories REALLY want to win this? If it endangers Corbyn that is BAD for them. Is it worth gaining one more MP in the Commons, to lose their greatest electoral asset, the Labour leader himself?

    I'd say it's a pretty close call, and the Tories will be oddly satisfied with a very close second.

    Of course they do as it will give a mandate for Article 50 and a mandate for May for Brexit and shutup all the Remoaners who are still crowing about Richmond Park, given Corbyn has comfortably been re-elected by Labour members he is not going anywhere soon
    True. I was speculating too idly perhaps.

    But Corbyn really IS the Tories' greatest asset. They really do not want him gone. At some point they will have to start maneuvering to keep him where he is. Give him a few fake but easy victories.
    Maybe but it would
    Hmm. I think Tories have to guard against complacency.

    The Tories, paradoxically, need the polls to improve for Labour, for a year or so.
    Starmer will wipe the wooden smile off Theresa's face.
    Starmer is far too rightwing for current Labour members
    How the hell do you know ? You are a Tory.
    you're entitled to a view on god even if you're an atheist
    Though it is not likely to be a well informed view!
    will god be the judge of that?
    All the evidence of the Gospels is that ignorance of God is not a bar to winding up in the right place. I would cite the parable of the Good Samaritan, and of the Romsn Centurion as examples. Excellent knowledge of theology would not save the Pharisees or Sanhedrin.

    In summary, much of Jesus's teaching can be

    Here endeth tonights Bible study!

    is that a yes or a no?
    Yes, God will be the judge.
    Good luck with that
    I am not certain of the outcome, but am certain that the judgement will be correct. No appeal to a higher court is possible in any case!
    I apologise for my flippancy
    No problem.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
  • Options

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
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    wasdwasd Posts: 276

    This is going to be like catnip for some Corbynites

    The Israeli Embassy made a shocking vow to ‘take down’ Boris Johnson’s Foreign Office deputy, a secret film reveals today.

    The bombshell footage, covertly filmed in a London restaurant and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, shows a senior diplomat making the astonishing threat to target Sir Alan Duncan.

    Extraordinarily, he is egged on by a senior aide to another Conservative Minister, Robert Halfon.

    The video comes in a film claiming to expose the way that the Israeli government has ‘infiltrated’ both the Conservative and Labour parties via its embassy in the UK, using secret cash and covert support.

    Further footage shows the Israeli diplomat, intelligence expert Shai Masot, telling senior Labour MP Joan Ryan that he has obtained ‘more than £1 million’ to pay for sympathetic Labour MPs to visit Israel. Mr Masot also mocks ‘crazy’ Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his ‘weirdo’ supporters.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4098082/Astonishing-undercover-video-captures-diplomat-conspiring-rival-MP-s-aide-smear-Deputy-Foreign-Secretary.html

    Didn't Halfon turn up on a bunch of Tory ones-to-watch lists?
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    And with the outing of the head banging party loyalists, my work is done for the evening.

    Actually you just outed yourself as a complete nutcase, with strained capacity for logical thought.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    NATO's goose is cooked anyway, surely? If Trump wants to throw out the under-2-%ers, and if there is a consensus that NATO will not in fact stand by the Baltic latecomers anyway, I thinbk Trump would view the end of NATO as a feature rather than a bug.
  • Options

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    I hope you are right but I think Merkel's lecture to Trump will have gone down like a lead balloon.

    I do not think he will be a great friend of Europe especially unless they pay their dues into Nato.

    Also there is some evidence to indicate he will do a quick trade deal with UK possibly as part of a new Nafta trade deal
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    Actually I think it quite possible.

    Trump has already ripped up NAFTA, the TPP and is picking a Trade war with China. The EU (of which we remain a member for at least the first 2 years of Trumps presidency) is also in trade surplus with the USA.

    I expect a trade war with us too. Trump is a mercantilist, Isolationist at heart.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    Sorry, you think that if something is utterly crazy, Donald Trump is guaranteed not to do it? You are in for a really, really interesting four years.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    NATO's goose is cooked anyway, surely? If Trump wants to throw out the under-2-%ers, and if there is a consensus that NATO will not in fact stand by the Baltic latecomers anyway, I thinbk Trump would view the end of NATO as a feature rather than a bug.
    I agree that NATO should be wound up as an obsolete cold war relic, but like Brexit, I would like to see this happen in a controlled and civilised manner. It looks as if it will be more like a car crash Brexit there too.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    Actually I think it quite possible.

    Trump has already ripped up NAFTA, the TPP and is picking a Trade war with China. The EU (of which we remain a member for at least the first 2 years of Trumps presidency) is also in trade surplus with the USA.

    I expect a trade war with us too. Trump is a mercantilist, Isolationist at heart.
    If nothing else Putin needs better access to the European economy - it's far more important in trade terms to him than the US. Trump will need to include the EU in his new grand bargain on both an economic and security standpoint.

    Trump is against free trade with low-wage low-regulation economies and will have his hands full with China.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    hps://twitter.com/davidealgebris/status/817686943395876864

    I expect May will regard that as one in the eye for George Osborne.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    I hope you are right but I think Merkel's lecture to Trump will have gone down like a lead balloon.

    I do not think he will be a great friend of Europe especially unless they pay their dues into Nato.

    Also there is some evidence to indicate he will do a quick trade deal with UK possibly as part of a new Nafta trade deal
    We are in the EU for at least the next 2 years, and if the soft Brexiteers win, quite possibly in the customs union long term too. Any trade dispute with the EU affects us, and we cannot start a deal with the USA before then, even in the unlikely situation that we wanted it.
  • Options

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    I hope you are right but I think Merkel's lecture to Trump will have gone down like a lead balloon.

    I do not think he will be a great friend of Europe especially unless they pay their dues into Nato.

    Also there is some evidence to indicate he will do a quick trade deal with UK possibly as part of a new Nafta trade deal
    We are in the EU for at least the next 2 years, and if the soft Brexiteers win, quite possibly in the customs union long term too. Any trade dispute with the EU affects us, and we cannot start a deal with the USA before then, even in the unlikely situation that we wanted it.
    The trade deals are already being worked on no matter what the EU may say.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    hps://twitter.com/davidealgebris/status/817686943395876864

    I expect May will regard that as one in the eye for George Osborne.
    Mrs May putting personal vendettas ahead of what is good for the nation?

    Say it ain't so.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    I hope you are right but I think Merkel's lecture to Trump will have gone down like a lead balloon.

    I do not think he will be a great friend of Europe especially unless they pay their dues into Nato.

    Also there is some evidence to indicate he will do a quick trade deal with UK possibly as part of a new Nafta trade deal
    We are in the EU for at least the next 2 years, and if the soft Brexiteers win, quite possibly in the customs union long term too. Any trade dispute with the EU affects us, and we cannot start a deal with the USA before then, even in the unlikely situation that we wanted it.
    The trade deals are already being worked on no matter what the EU may say.
    They cannot apply for at least 2 years, so we will be collateral damage in any USA/EU trade dispute, even if what you say is true (and it is not).

    Trump is troubled by the balance of trade and imports from Mexico ($60 Billion in 2016), the EU's is twice that, and China is twice that again plus a bit.

    Any Trumpist tarrif war affects us big time, and any new deal is not likely to be better for us.

    Brexit during a Trump presidency is particularlly ill timed, and likely to be a car crash Brexit.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    edited January 2017
    Just a thought at midnight after 3 days of long hours followed by nocturnal socialising leaving me a broken man capable of little else but watching Netflix:

    making betting decisions based on the 2 years after enacting article 50 might be costly. Yes conventional wisdom that a deal will take a long time - but events might drive an easy and swift transition deal.

    We could well leave the EU before March 2019.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mortimer said:

    Just a thought at midnight after 3 days of long hours followed by nocturnal socialising leaving me a broken man capable of little else but watching Netflix:

    making betting decisions based on the 2 years after enacting article 50 might be costly. Yes conventional wisdom that a deal will take a long time - but events might drive an easy and swift transition deal.

    We could well leave the EU before March 2019.

    Are there any markets on when we do officially Leave? the ones that I recall are about A50.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Does that mean the government can cancel the stupid nuclear power station now?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    Mortimer said:

    Just a thought at midnight after 3 days of long hours followed by nocturnal socialising leaving me a broken man capable of little else but watching Netflix:

    making betting decisions based on the 2 years after enacting article 50 might be costly. Yes conventional wisdom that a deal will take a long time - but events might drive an easy and swift transition deal.

    We could well leave the EU before March 2019.

    Are there any markets on when we do officially Leave? the ones that I recall are about A50.
    I'm not sure - just highlighting that the 2 years is an assumption on which lots of positions could be wrongly based.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    I love the irony of the Economist's front page article coming out in the weak that May sets out her vision!
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    66/1 tip coming up in the morning PBers.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    66/1 tip coming up in the morning PBers.

    Richard Burgon to find someone in the city to meet with?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Mortimer said:

    I love the irony of the Economist's front page article coming out in the weak that May sets out her vision!

    The 'shared society'? It sounds like an awful management consulting reorganisation buzzword.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    Mortimer said:

    I love the irony of the Economist's front page article coming out in the weak that May sets out her vision!

    The 'shared society'? It sounds like an awful management consulting reorganisation buzzword.
    Having been a management consultant, I'd suggest it has far too few syllables to be part of the canon...
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I love the irony of the Economist's front page article coming out in the weak that May sets out her vision!

    The 'shared society'? It sounds like an awful management consulting reorganisation buzzword.
    Having been a management consultant, I'd suggest it has far too few syllables to be part of the canon...
    "Dynamic networked community"
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    *Trigger warning as I know this is a topic some PBers get all upset over and prefer to ignore the facts*

    Grammar schools offer ‘pitifully few’ places to poorer children

    Selection is no driver of social mobility, according to analysis of 2016 data

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jan/07/poor-pupils-miss-grammar-school-places

    Says a report by Lucy Powell, Labour education spokesperson, so very objective I assume. If we had a few more grammars in poorer areas which is at the heart of May's policy rather than mainly in wealthier areas as now they would be doing rather more for social mobility
    Former Labour Education spokesperson.

    More importantly, what is wrong with her analysis?
    Exactly as I pointed out, the reason grammars do less for social mobility than they used to is that Labour scrapped most of them leaving the few remaining in leafy Tory areas. Singapore selects at 13 and tops the latest PISA
    I believe it was Mrs Thatcher who scrapped/merged the most number of grammar schools.

    'Twas one of her finest achievements, alongside the Single European Act.
    It was Shirley Williams' and Crosland who began the process of closing most of the grammars, Thatcher was Heath's Education Minister and simply had to follow his policy of not opposing local authorities' moves to comprehensives
    Shirley Williams did not become Education Secretary until April 1976 - over two years after Thatcher left the same office!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Big government conservativism.

    Awful, awful idea. Oh well I guess I'll just have to hope that SVP don't make me wear an "ausländer" armband.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    In all seriousness, do the Tories REALLY want to win this? If it endangers Corbyn that is BAD for them. Is it worth gaining one more MP in the Commons, to lose their greatest electoral asset, the Labour leader himself?

    I'd say it's a pretty close call, and the Tories will be oddly satisfied with a very close second.

    Of course they do as it will give a mandate for Article 50 and a mandate for May for Brexit and shutup all the Remoaners who are still crowing about Richmond Park, given Corbyn has comfortably been re-elected by Labour members he is not going anywhere soon
    True. I was speculating too idly perhaps.

    But Corbyn really IS the Tories' greatest asset. They really do not want him gone. At some point they will have to start maneuvering to keep him where he is. Give him a few fake but easy victories.
    Maybe but it would
    Hmm. I think Tories have to guard against complacency. The new Labour membership is young, volatile and unpredictable. The Lefty hive mind might suddenly have a fit of common sense, and in the face of a difficult Brexit Labour could do surprisingly well in 2020 under a vaguely sane leader. The sudden shock of seeing a non-nutter taking down Theresa in the Commons would concentrate voter minds.

    The Tories, paradoxically, need the polls to improve for Labour, for a year or so.
    Starmer will wipe the wooden smile off Theresa's face.
    Starmer is far too rightwing for current Labour members
    How the hell do you know ? You are a Tory.
    you're entitled to a view on god even if you're an atheist
    Though it is not likely to be a well informed view!
    will god be the judge of that?
    All the evidence of the Gospels is that ignorance of God is not a bar to winding up in the right place. I would cite the parable of the Good Samaritan, and of the Romsn Centurion as examples. Excellent knowledge of theology would not save the Pharisees or Sanhedrin.

    In summary, much of Jesus's teaching can be conensed to: Intellectual knowledge of God is no substitute for the heartfelt internal experience, and indeed is often an obstacle to be overcome.

    Here endeth tonights Bible study!

    Indeed, when asked how the sheep would be separated from the goats (i.e. the saved from the damned), Jesus said "those who fed me when I was hungry, those who clothed me when I was cold"
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    As an aside, it is worth remembering that Russia is utterly dependent on the EU. It accounts for the vast bulk (more than 80%) of its exports by Gross Value Add, as it takes substantially all of its natural gas and the vast bulk of its coal and oil.

    The US, on the other hand, has virtually no meaningful trade with Russia. And the EU - and Germany and the Baltic states in particular - have been quietly and carefully hedging their bets.

    15 years ago, the Germans could buy their gas from Russia, or go cold in the winter. The massive investment in wind power, the building of new lignite power stations, and the development of LNG import terminals means that Germany simply can't be threatened by Russia as it was in the past.

    The Baltic states have clubbed together and got themselves a floating LNG regasification unit. This doesn't stop Russia invading. But it does mean Russia's threat to cut off their gas supplies is not as scary as it was before.

    Over the next two decades, the amount of internationally traded natural gas is going to go through the roof: Australia, the US, Canada, Mozambique, Tanzania, and others will all start exporting gas to a meaningful degree. Russia was the only game in town for gas imports to Eastern Europe a decade ago, and gas dominated power and heating. No more. As the next few years are likely to demonstrate, Putin's gyrations come from a position of diminishing importance.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    edited January 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    As the next few years are likely to demonstrate, Putin's gyrations come from a position of diminishing importance.

    I think you misunderstand the objectives of Russian foreign policy over the last 15 years. Putin was fighting a defensive war, and he has just won.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    rcs1000 said:

    As the next few years are likely to demonstrate, Putin's gyrations come from a position of diminishing importance.

    I think you misunderstand the objectives of Russian foreign policy over the last 15 years. Putin was fighting a defensive war, and he has just won.
    Trump's support is not the same as actual money.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As the next few years are likely to demonstrate, Putin's gyrations come from a position of diminishing importance.

    I think you misunderstand the objectives of Russian foreign policy over the last 15 years. Putin was fighting a defensive war, and he has just won.
    Trump's support is not the same as actual money.
    Perhaps having May threatening hard Brexit will make Merkel think about where else she can sell her cars...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    *Trigger warning as I know this is a topic some PBers get all upset over and prefer to ignore the facts*

    Grammar schools offer ‘pitifully few’ places to poorer children

    Selection is no driver of social mobility, according to analysis of 2016 data

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jan/07/poor-pupils-miss-grammar-school-places

    Says a report by Lucy Powell, Labour education spokesperson, so very objective I assume. If we had a few more grammars in poorer areas which is at the heart of May's policy rather than mainly in wealthier areas as now they would be doing rather more for social mobility
    Former Labour Education spokesperson.

    More importantly, what is wrong with her analysis?
    Exactly as I pointed out, the reason grammars do less for social mobility than they used to is that Labour scrapped most of them leaving the few remaining in leafy Tory areas. Singapore selects at 13 and tops the latest PISA
    I believe it was Mrs Thatcher who scrapped/merged the most number of grammar schools.

    'Twas one of her finest achievements, alongside the Single European Act.
    It was Shirley Williams' and Crosland who began the process of closing most of the grammars, Thatcher was Heath's Education Minister and simply had to follow his policy of not opposing local authorities' moves to comprehensives
    Shirley Williams did not become Education Secretary until April 1976 - over two years after Thatcher left the same office!
    Crosland was Education Secretary from 1965-1967 and began the process supported by Shirley Williams in Parliament and completed when she was Education Secretary.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    I hope you are right but I think Merkel's lecture to Trump will have gone down like a lead balloon.

    I do not think he will be a great friend of Europe especially unless they pay their dues into Nato.

    Also there is some evidence to indicate he will do a quick trade deal with UK possibly as part of a new Nafta trade deal
    We are in the EU for at least the next 2 years, and if the soft Brexiteers win, quite possibly in the customs union long term too. Any trade dispute with the EU affects us, and we cannot start a deal with the USA before then, even in the unlikely situation that we wanted it.
    Trump's adviser on Trade has suggested replacing Mexico in NAFTA with the UK
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it is worth remembering that Russia is utterly dependent on the EU. It accounts for the vast bulk (more than 80%) of its exports by Gross Value Add, as it takes substantially all of its natural gas and the vast bulk of its coal and oil.

    The US, on the other hand, has virtually no meaningful trade with Russia. And the EU - and Germany and the Baltic states in particular - have been quietly and carefully hedging their bets.

    15 years ago, the Germans could buy their gas from Russia, or go cold in the winter. The massive investment in wind power, the building of new lignite power stations, and the development of LNG import terminals means that Germany simply can't be threatened by Russia as it was in the past.

    The Baltic states have clubbed together and got themselves a floating LNG regasification unit. This doesn't stop Russia invading. But it does mean Russia's threat to cut off their gas supplies is not as scary as it was before.

    Over the next two decades, the amount of internationally traded natural gas is going to go through the roof: Australia, the US, Canada, Mozambique, Tanzania, and others will all start exporting gas to a meaningful degree. Russia was the only game in town for gas imports to Eastern Europe a decade ago, and gas dominated power and heating. No more. As the next few years are likely to demonstrate, Putin's gyrations come from a position of diminishing importance.

    Emailed you
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    Idly clicking links whilst watch detroit struggle in seattle, came across this:

    https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/reports/thenhsif/what-if-the-nhs-had-to-balance-its-books-like-local-government/

    Url just about sums up the article. Would the shock to the system might be worth the downsides?
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Kim Willsher in the Guardian on Le Pen's rebranding.

    Summary:
    * she is not using the well-known FN flame logo much or at all
    * she's not using her surname either; she's simply Marine
    * she's using the Comic Sans font (actually I made that one up!)
    * she is selling herself in soft pastel colours, and as someone who likes kittens and isn't frightening at all
    * La France Apaisée - a "soothed" France
    * the violent imagery seems reserved for descriptions of policies and people she opposes, such as Angela Merkel and the EU (ruling by beating people down, by the "schlague") and the euro (a knife in France's ribs)
    * the agency that ran her 2012 campaign was ordered by a judge in 2015 not to work for her party any more
    * who is running her marketing this time, or whether anyone is running it other than her herself, is a mystery
    * opinion pollster Jérôme Fourquet (Ifop) and advertising agency founder Uli Wiesendanger (TBWA) reckon that her makeover isn't really very convincing or professional

    There are two similarities here with Le Pen's campaign and what was said about it: she's being "soothing", and "professionals" are saying the campaign is half-arsed. Well it doesn't seem half-arsed to me, and nor did Trump's, even when most commentators were saying it was. And much of Trump's presentation was soothing. "We're gonna end it".

    There are also some striking differences: for example, no video has emerged of her boasting about grabbing young handsome men by their genitals, nor of her explaining herself by saying it was typical girls' talk at the hairdresser's. But who would expect her branding to be a carbon copy of Trump's anyway?

    Seems to me that her campaign is going places.

    It may be that the hard right candidate, as in hard, will turn out to be not Le Pen but Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. As well as promising to reintroduce conscription, he has said that he wants a French Guantanamo, for example in French Guiana.

    It's unclear whether or not there will be any TV debates between candidates before the first round.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Dromedary said:

    It's unclear whether or not there will be any TV debates between candidates before the first round.

    The combined support for the "non-establishment" candidates - 37% for Mélenchon and Le Pen combined - may be enough to force something to happen in this department. The figure rises to 43% if we include Poutou, Jadot, Arthaud, and Dupont-Aignan.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Just a thought - If the US actively supports Brexit, offers support for France, Netherlands, Italy to do the same, agrees sanctions and trade deals with Russia, who then support all the Exit countries to leave the EU and do direct trade deals with the US and Russia.

    It is only a thought - very tongue in cheek but !!

    The quickest route to a poisonous trelationship between USA and the EU27 that I could imagine. It would be the end of NATO.
    It is an extreme possibility but so was Brexit and Trump

    Trump's tweets tonight extol the virtue of Russia and that Trump wants to work closely with Russia on World matters. He does seem determined to be Putin's best friend and of course if you are cynical he is going to be even more motivated in this respect after the rows with the CIA etc
    Yes but the idea that the US is instead going to start fighting a new cold war against the EU is utterly crazy. Not a possibility, remote or otherwise.
    I hope you are right but I think Merkel's lecture to Trump will have gone down like a lead balloon.

    I do not think he will be a great friend of Europe especially unless they pay their dues into Nato.

    Also there is some evidence to indicate he will do a quick trade deal with UK possibly as part of a new Nafta trade deal
    We are in the EU for at least the next 2 years, and if the soft Brexiteers win, quite possibly in the customs union long term too. Any trade dispute with the EU affects us, and we cannot start a deal with the USA before then, even in the unlikely situation that we wanted it.
    Trump's adviser on Trade has suggested replacing Mexico in NAFTA with the UK
    I think it would be daft to join NAFTA, when Trump rips up complex trade agreements on a twitter whim.

    But even if we were that daft, it couldn't happen for at least 2 years, as I pointed out above. It wouldn't allow us to dodge a USS/EU trade war.
This discussion has been closed.