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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a Year of Revolt, what’s in store for 2017?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a Year of Revolt, what’s in store for 2017?
Few would have predicted twelve months ago that Donald Trump would be about to be inaugurated, that Theresa May would be prime minister and that Paul Nuttall would be leader of UKIP. Those who did should have cashed in nicely. There were straws in the wind for all of these (though most would have anticipated a change of UKIP leader after a Remain win, not a Leave), but the odds were still strongly against.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4077664/PETER-OBORNE-POLITICS-POWER-2017-Mrs-s-masterstroke-death-euro-nasty-surprise-all.html
In answer to SeanT's question, the obvious choice would be to go for the fascists.
Fascist states recover quickly and can be perfectly good places to live, see Germany, Italy, Spain etc.
Islamic states however never recover from Islam. You're looking at a miserable future not just for yourselves, but for your children and grandchildren as well.
One commenter said it read like his (the commenter's) wish list. Yes - that's probably precisely why it was written: Daily Mail clickbait.
Trumps trade war with China looks the major risk to the global economy, pretty nailed on in my book. China looks vulnerable to a major debt bubble bursting.
I suppose to many this year did represent A New Hope.
https://youtu.be/8UpGbvOTlBE
Will we get the quote facility back on the main PB website at some point in 2017?
"On Topic this is Peter Oborne's startling piece in today's Mail. "
Pretty standard right-wing wish list. Apart from May's 400 seat victory the rest is a dream
Fair enough, but I don't see that any anti-Islamic government would necessarily target all minorities.
It does seem to be that the people who supported the politics that cause the problem will be the first to flee when the problems emerge.
If however it happened, then I too would be on my way. My Britain would have ceased to exist.
Edit. Silly misstype!
But to go a little further: either situation would be an absolute failure of British society and the 'values' (*) we all seem to hold dear. Neither is a good situation, nor one any reasonable person would want.
We would have utterly failed.
Therefore if forced to stay, I'd like to think I'd choose a third route: to stand up and fight (in whatever way) for those values that we currently hold dear. I fear the reason some people are choosing the fascist alternative is that they secretly feel quite comfortable with the idea.
(*) However that might be defined.
Any government that descended to that level would do whatever it could to maintain its power. As we've seen so many times in the past throughout the world, many politicians see politics not as a means to help people, but as a means to grab power for themselves. Any group who disagrees with them is at risk.
Well I'm wondering what exactly can be done to combat rising Islamic extremism exactly. It seems we're too weak to actually do anything at all.
SkyData
Public's 2016 predictions as of Dec 2015:
Brexit
Likely 23%
Unlikely 57%
Cameron resigns
Likely 8%
Unlikely 82%
Trump
Likely 7%
Unlikely 84%
Leicester win title
Likely 12%
Unlikely 56%
More GB medals than London
Likely 29%
Unlikely 51%
We find life on Mars
Likely 17%
Unlikely 64%
Jeez I can hear the hands being wrung from here. When presented with the fact that 50% of young British Muslims have sympathy with ISIS the first reaction is to play it down and make excuses as to why it's not a big issue.
I seriously doubt there's much more support for ISIS in places like Saudi Arabia that are complete hell holes. But hey it's just a minority and only sympathy so no need to worry about it.
The latest poll in Catalonia showed a small majority opposed to independence.
But what I was meaning was that Oborne's prediction is that Mugabe will be 'forced out'. I don't count dying as being forced out.
Only catching up, but the stats on the previous post look peculiar.
Survey of 124k patients says that 20% wait >5 days ie the mean or median is likely to be 2 to 4 days.
Meanwhile a survey of 800 Doctors tells us that the "average" wait for a routine appointment is 13 days.
That cannot be reconciled.
More and more detailed data is required. It is not clear, for example, whether routine appointments booked in advance are included or not. The PULSE article is not clear:
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/your-practice/access/average-waiting-time-for-gp-appointment-increases-30-in-a-year/20032025.article
As a diabetic I have a number of "routine" appointments every year for feet check, diabetes checks, flu jab, and so on. These are routinely booked several weeks in advance and it is not a problem. Some routine appointments eg for next year's check, may be booked 6 months in advance.
Is this in the Dr data?
I am inclined to listen to Mori.
What you fail to address is the reasons that young Muslims become attracted to radical change and nihilism. It is in practice little different to alt.right populism. The combination of economic failure, lack of interest in education, exagerrated perceptions of insult combined with a thin skin lends itself to blame of "the other" and simplistic solutions.
Radical Islam will be defeated by the values of liberal democratic capitalism, not by emulating their xenophobic fascism.
It is a natural consequence of the aggressive values of Islam. It happens wherever Islam meets non-Islam anywhere in the world. You're not trying to suggest that it occurs purely because we've not been nice enough to them are you?
"Radical Islam will be defeated by the values of liberal democratic capitalism, not by emulating their xenophobic fascism."
Radical Islam is flourishing in countries that practice liberal democratic capitalism. Like er...the UK with 50% of young Muslims having sympathy with ISIS.
I have long wondered on here, and like SeanT's question, people have shuffled away and not answered. It is said the difference between a dog and a wolf is three meals. How many horrific incidents would need to happen in the UK in say a year before the public take the decision out of the hands of reasonable people.
(But I do see you mean by political means
And for holding that view, he now needs around the clock security from people wanting to kill him...in this country.
Occurrences like Rotherham already seem to much of the population like pandering, there is a definite risk that further moves so be "understanding" are going to be votes for the kippers.
Maybe the aims of the IRA weren't to kill or subjugate anyone that isn't in the IRA.
David Herdson is clearly reminding us at New Year that life is not fair. We are not all equal. Very philosophical of him.
Articles all about immigration saying that no-one is allowed to talk about immigration have been a newspaper mainstay for at least 15 years.
The terrorism of the IRA and ETA are completely different to worldwide thread of Islamism.
Arthur S
31 December 1966: The Monkees achieve their 2nd US #1 and the last US Billboard #1 of 1966: https://t.co/Qdw3ArBmMp
https://youtu.be/wB9YIsKIEbA
1. Nothing is going to happen.
2. Something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
3. Maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
4. We could have done something, but it's too late now.
SeanT's question is just such an example: it's a stupid question that he freely admits was posed to get a certain response. There are more than the two possible answers he gave.
"Would you rather be kicked in the face or the groin?"
Euro, stock market, global financial system, dollar, Russian economy, European Union, Housing, FTSE 250, Australian housing market, Obama care, Saudi Arabia and finally the biosphere and Kerry in Emmerdale.
Nationalist insurgencies are different to political ones, but the route to defeating them is via the methods we used (after trying most others) in NI.
Do you have a link?
According to this ICM poll:
3% of Muslims in Britain "support the way in which Islamic State/ISIL/ISIS is trying to establish a Caliphate. 73% oppose. 1% and 89% in control group.
6% sympathise with people who organize radical groups but do not take part in terrorist actions. That was actually 11% in the control group survey.
9% sympathise with those use violence in political protest. 3% in control group.
4% sympathise with those who commit terrorist actions as a form of political protest. 1% in control group. 83% Muslims condemn vs. 95% in control group.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Mulims-full-suite-data-plus-topline.pdf
2. Something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
3. Maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
4. We could have done something, but it's too late now."
Just like complacent remainers' attitude to complaints about EU before and after the referendum.
See, its possible to give an answer. Some times there are no good alternatives, sometimes all alternatives are fatal. Some times you just get to choose what you stand for and how you die. Strangely lots of people dont want others to know what they stand for in extremis.
SeanT's point (presumably) was that sometimes you have to make the hard choices.
Sometimes it really is a binary choice between two bad outcomes.
Like choosing between Clinton and Trump.
The IRA and ETA wanted something that could be given, political power, and self determination. I am interested to see what you think we could offer an organisation that is committed to seeing us wiped from the earth, and has no interest in accommodating us.
Trying to equate Islamism with "alt.right" (whatever that?) isn't really helping your argument be credible.
And Islamism has been around over a thousand years so far. So not really "shortlived".
Sorry I can't hang around to debate the point - chores to do.
All the best for 2017 everyone.
Donald J Trump
Happy New Year to all, including to my many enemies and those who have fought me and lost so badly they just don't know what to do. Love!
Herdsons analysis is as thin & superficial as usual. He still doesnt get Corbyn.
The chances of an Election are slim _ why would Labour backbenchers vote for Redundancy in 2017 rather than 2020 ?
May will see Local Elections where The Libdems make substantial gains while UKIP make very heavy losses - even The BBC will find it hard to ignore that.
He believes strongly Islam has to be challenged and changed, liberalized and modernized, otherwise the spread of Islamism across the Western world will continue at an increasing rate.
A do nothing / everything will be ok attitude, most often taken by our elected representatives, is not one he advocates.
That is the approach of a Paratrooper in Derry 72, which stoked up violence. What actually defeated the IRA was containment, counter intelligence, addressing social grievances and opening routes to democratic participation.
Those seeking a united Ireland always had a route to democratic participation, the SDLP.
People joined and join the IRA and its successors because they were and are evil, violent people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sfovPxT3Fg
Simultaneously calls to boycott said newspapers for being racist or stoking racism have also been a mainstay.
UKIP is a harder call. I think they struggle organisationally, and they lack a coherent message about what you are voting for in a local election. In 2013, when these councils were last elected, UKIP got 22% of the vote. (Which is mid to high teens, NEV.) I think they'll struggle to get that again. UKIP got 147 seats last time around. I suspect they'll be sub 100 in 2017.
This year, I was relentlessly pilloried for talking about a Trump win for going against the grain. Insults aren't a substitute for argument - and neither are sophistry.
Angel-pin-head dancing may suit your patent law occupation, it doesn't work in normal society or even PB pedant land. You personally insulted me over the death of my mother and my decision to go back to work the next day because I thought that's the sort of attitude she'd expect from me. You accused me *virtue signalling*.
Urgh.
Guess who used to be in charge of the IRA "nutting squad"?