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GE2015 Copeland where there's to be a by-election pic.twitter.com/YKrc5S4Kpi
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The other imponderable is we don't know when the by election will be called. Copeland might be fun on a nice spring day - perhaps less so in mid January.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Draw a very wiggly 'circle'. Quite rough. Show it to someone and ask 'Is it a circle'? Then ask which party they normally vote for.
Yes - more likely to vote Labour
No - more likely to vote Tory.
I think we all underestimate the interest in politics of the average Joe. Zac didn't have the Conservative logo next to his name. I think an official Conservative (in the absence of Back Zac) would have done better than Zac did.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/21/clintons-democratic-party-donors-recover
It is truly remarkable how badly the Democratic Party has done over the past 8 years at each and every level of politics in the US, save mayoralties.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/obamas-last-christmas-a-season-of-disappointment/article/2610329
Right wing - prefers to see the world in terms of right and wrong, simple truths, common sense, black and white, native and migrant.
Left wing - none of the above.
'Trump Ally Carl Paladino Slammed for 'Racist' Wish List for Obamas
..when asked what he would most like to see go in 2017, he responded:
Michelle Obama. I'd like her to return to being a male and let loose in the outback of Zimbabwe where she lives comfortably in a cave with Maxie, the gorilla.'
http://tinyurl.com/j9y5sct
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38427459
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38427459
Alternative viewpoint.
Left wing tolerance of low standards, equal marks/pay regardless of work done, anti-competition participation awards for everyone.
Right wing holding up of standards, constructive criticism of poor work aimed at personal improvement, welcome to the real world that is not a circle no matter what your left wing teachers and lecturers told you ...
Just because some people are obnoxious, or racist, doesn't mean that there isn't a problem with excessive control of language, desire for safe spaces, censorship etc etc.
These "Firing Line" programmes appear to have been uploaded en masse to youtube recently
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Xr4pvvAphs
If there had been an official conservative candidate, and no Zac? That's a much harder call.
I think there's a fable about this that has had some discussion on PB not too long ago.
The MP is not resigning until the end of January so a by election is unlikely before 2nd March.
Well, dang. I went to quite a few of the Quo's concerts in my youth and once shared a 'Telegraph crossword with him and Francis Rossi on a train to Manchester. A genuinely nice bloke.
Going back to last evening's conversation, the fags did not get him, the booze did not get him, nor even did the cocaine. An infection did.
Although the fags, booze, and cocaine may have rendered his body less able to fight infection.
To use the old Godwin's Law, I'm not saying Nazis are good, just that Soviets are bad too. It's possible (because I do) to oppose the obnoxious comments you mentioned whilst also being against the delicate, dancing-on-the-head-of-a-pin that some use over language.
Mr. Quidder, indeed, that's when I used a brilliant DS9 reference, Garak saying the moral of the (Boy Who Cried Wolf) story is to never tell the same lie twice.
I find one of the relaxing things about living in another country is I am completely unfazed by the sort of antics I see on the news happening here, which I would be chewing the furniture if they happened in the UK. It's easy to take the happenings in other countries, even ones you happen to live in, much less personally.
I think the 2009 County Election results - search the county website will offer some insight for potential betters as the context was not dissimilar to now; Tories so so, Labour toxic. At least one of those elected in 2009 NEVER expected to be elected and was IMHO one of the best councillors ever elected to Cumbria.
The local Tory Party knew about the impending resignaton for at least three weeks before it happened. Even I knew two days before - I didn't realise it hadn't been announced. There are as I understand it three potential local candidates and the selection is well under way. Certainly two of them are on first name terms with the PM.
Contrary to some comments about TM's invisibility as Home Secretary she was a regular campaigner at every council election and Police Commissioner election in the county. My point with this is she is well known in Cumbria Cons circles and knows the people involved.
A few threads back someone suggested Labour might select Tim Knowles as he fronted the piece for Labour on Border Lookaround. I would be surprised if he were selected and assume he is chairman of the CLP or some such. He makes Jamie Reed look like a Bennite. But he was and I assume still is a very effective county councillor and was a key member of the 2009 to 2013 Con/Lab coalition on CCC. But, he doesn't have the gobshite charisma of say Tim Farron to fight a by-election.
The Lib Dems are a total irrelevance in Copeland - they did have a councillor for Keswick but she resigned mid term. I don't imagine Tim will be spending any more time in this constituency than he does in the House of Commons. Door knocking for the Cumbria county elections will be his sole pre-occupation for the first five months of 2017. He has a lot to lose.
But there must be a LD candidate as Tim has to live down his once regular proclamations that he was to the left of Labour. Not to stand would be a gift for us Tories in those much more important county elections.
As has been pointed out Ed Balls has no connections to north and west Cumbria - EXCEPT that is where his wife hails from. So, whilst his candidacy is very unlikely MPs have had more tenuous connections with their constituency.
As a Cumbrian Tory of course I hope and expect we will win this contest convincingly. The biggest danger would be the selection of a non-local candidate and as far as I can see enough has been done already to prevent this.
There is many a slip etc, but as well as the who wins bet punters might find better value on a longer odds bet of the best Con gain in any by-election since the war.
Kevin Lancaster
*Did you used to post here? The username sounds familiar.
It should be no surprise that British politicos are more concerned about the links of a British politician.
Can't we just agree that he's an arse who knows some pretty unpleasant people?
The latter would have had all the access to the Tory machine particularly the data and creative sides. The only problem is that the candidate would not have had any incumbency benefit which in Zac's case was very strong.
True there was a negative element with LAB supporters to Zac but that element was always going to be smaller than Zac loyalists.
My view is that the LDs were so fired up and had the expertise and data that they were always going to come through to win this seat. This was an absolutely must win for them and an incredible team was put together.
One factor was that unlike other by-elections this had been likely to happen for at least 18 months beforehand. They were prepared and got a campaign newspaper, written, printed and delivered to 90%+ of the constituency within 36 hours of Zac quitting as an MP.
Merry Christmas Charles!
And the thing is, he is an arse who is PEOTUS. It seems a bit disproportionate and inadequate to say "he was rude about Mrs Obama" when he is, more relevantly, considerably raising the risk of global nuclear war. It's a bit like complaining that Goebbels lit his cigars without taking the band off, or served red wine with fish.
I am not asking anyone to condemn anything. I am merely noting that those right wingers who profess outrage about Corbyn's unsavoury associates are rather less bothered about the unsavoury connections of ptomjnent right wing politicians.
Both of which are very middle class obsessions. A true gentleman would order Cru Gamay with his swordfish, shoot Goebbels with his .318 Westley Richards(*), and after his meal order his cigar. With the band on.
(*) Holland & Holland is for the kind of people who have their guns engraved with copies of their tattoos. (**)
(**) Yes, they really have done this for rich customers
The StJohn Christmas CrossWord
Someone's been tinkering with the laws of the universe then.
The StJohn Christmas CrossWord"
Huzzah! Wrestling with the PB Christmas Day crossword is now as traditional in the Llama household as the eight o'clock service and the bacon sandwiches and bucks fizz that go with it.
Fair go, but I would say the only food that one should never serve red wine with is oysters, that combination really does not work.
I'm using one that my Dad was given by Majorie Brecknock; he had a 4 inch stock extension put on but I may need to get it extended again.
The extension may be longer than the stock, but it's sweet and light and the aim is true.
A late entry for the PB euphemism of the year award?
foxinsoxuk said:
Family speaking Polish at the next table. Should I tell them to piss off? or smile and wish them a Happy Winterval?
Some advice please from the PB elite...
I would answer ....get off your phone and PB and talk to the person / group you actually went out to dinner with for Christmas Eve. .......
In regard to question wish them happy Christmas ......why wouldn't you? If you can do it in polish so much the better.
Wesołych Świąt. By the way and no, I don't know how to pronounce
What a decent and engaging and interesting bunch of people you all are.
Here's to plenty of "discussions" next year.
They deserve to be welcomed and wished a happy Christmas
I want to leave the EU but would not even think about being anything other than polite
Re Royal Blue - Kings carols is my wife's favorite programme of the year. Fabulous
A Snowflake Falls
© Ruth Adams
One night I saw a snowflake fall,
Past memories it did recall,
And as the snow fell to the ground,
So quietly without a sound,
I watched until a blanket made,
To glistening white brown earth did fade.
An untouched cover until the dawn,
the sun arose it was soon gone.
I thought of friendships in the past,
Seemed perfect though they did not last.
And family ties once meant so much,
Now rarely do we keep in touch.
So quickly life can take a turn,
Yet slowly we do seem to learn,
So many things in life can change,
And suddenly be rearranged.
In our slumber while we do sleep,
For granted blessings thought to keep,
For same as night does turn to morn,
An untouched blanket can get torn,
The things that we have overlooked,
Ignored, rejected or mistook,
As melted snow does turn to slush,
Relationships can turn to dust.
So this year for the Holiday,
Praise God for blessings gave today.
Don't take for granted they'll remain,
That life forever will be the same.
Let's be the most that we can be,
For all our friends and family.
Unlike the snowflake on the ground,
Let's keep in touch and stay around.
Best wishes to all....and especially OGH for another great year for PB.
Moses.
Lets hope 2017 will see lively debate but with more tolerance to opposing views from everyone
I am signing off now until after Christmas
I was alone with my dog at the table, hence a little PB:-) and a certain.
Either way, Merry Christmas to you all.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
By the way, Hurst - do you want to drop me an email? I'm not sure my last couple of emails have reached you - maybe I've got an old email address.
Google pay them? Seriously?
I do wonder what the next setting of the Doomsday clock will be.
Do you have a source for that?
I have never heard of Google paying to provide links to sites. I thought that the news sites allowed links from Google to drive traffic (so they let one article be read for free). As not allowing links from Google is rather fatal to any site's promotion strategy.