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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Bercow’s replacement: Another betting market for mug punters
PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m1KRSH open market on next Speaker
Bercow is 50yo
What if he stays till he's 70? pic.twitter.com/5uMPs3qmV5
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Percentage changes in 2010:
Con: +3.66%
Lab: -6.47%
LD: +0.92%
Others: +1.90%
So even in 2010 the increase in the share of Others was more than half the increase in the Tory share.
I say "even" because UKIP, SNP and PC didn't have a particularly good election in 2010 and it was supposed to be the Tories' big chance for the first time in 20 years. Despite all that the ratio of Tory increase to Others increase wasn't particularly impressive for the Conservatives.
Doesn't bode well for them next time when Others are likely to be a lot stronger in comparison.
Speaker Onslow occupied the chair for 33 years...
"Take Callaghan vs Thatcher, that's a battle you're seeing very differently through hindsight and based on what happened later than it was at the time."
Perhaps. Callaghan himself conceded a sea change was happening, though, and I think others did too.
It was also pretty clear between Major and Kinnock who was the better man. There is and was no comparison. It may have taken the Sheffield rally for everybody's eyes to have been opened to Kinnock, but opened they were.
Cameron versus Miliband seems to me to be the same, in the sense that it's not even close. It's not Wellington versus Napoleon; it's not Hannibal versus Scipio. It's Yamashita versus Percival.
It's a mystery.
Public Expenditure Statistic Analyses 2013 (PESA 2013), updates the Coalition Government's public spending outturns and forecasts for this parliamentary term.
A couple of weeks ago I posted the aggregrates for Total Managed Expenditure for 2010-2015 and compared them to Labour's third term between 2005-2010. Those were based on PESA 2013. I have now updated the table. Comments in separate post.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10188372/Sketch-Nick-Clegg-socks-machine.html
" This morning Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, answered listeners' questions on his weekly radio phone-in show on LBC, Call Clegg. For those who missed it, there follows a transcript of the highlights.
Cathy in Welling: Good morning, Mr Clegg. My question to you is, can you explain why the Government has set the benefit cap at £26,000?
Nick Clegg: Good morning, Cathy! The whole motivation behind our welfare reforms, certainly as far as I’m concerned, is to do everything we can to encourage people to stand on their own two feet. That’s not to discriminate against one-legged people – we are of course doing everything we can to encourage one-legged people to stand on their own one foot. And with the elderly and disabled we’re doing everything we can to encourage them to sit on their own two buttocks, or to balance on their own two crutches, or indeed to lie down on their own one back, as the case may be, depending on their particular circumstances. But the point is, this is a Government that will do all it can to help the people of this country stand up, sit down, run on the spot, touch their toes or whatever else they need to do, while very much using their own feet, legs, hands, knees, elbows, heads and other essential body parts. And that, certainly in my view, is the best way to make the system fairer..."
The key points to make are that - contrary to tim's repetitive claims - Total Managed Expenditure (TME) in real terms has been and is forecast to be reduced over the current term in contrast to the 15% increase over the Brown/Darling term.
What has changed from the previous table is that Osborne is planning to slightly ease the rate of spending deceleration over the last two years of the term. In the current year he actually plans to increase spending in real terms by over 4% and only reduce it by just under half a percent next year.
As a result of these changes the overall reduction in real terms expenditure falls from (3.72%) in PESA 2012 to (2.75%) in PESA 2013. TME to GDP ratio is also changed from a 2012 estimate of 42.2% at term end to 44.1% in PESA 2013.
tim will no doubt make far more out of these changes than is warranted but it is of interest that Osborne has managed to get the media focussed on his "£11.5 bn additional spending cuts" just at the same time as he is easing off immediate pressure on expenditure.
Perhaps he is just taking a quick fag break with Lynton Crosby to laugh at us all?
I think - broadly, and as we know most people only have a very fleeting interest in politics - that Ed Miliband is in danger of having the 'weak' perception stick.
A bit weak, a bit nerdy, a bit inexperienced-looking and not leadership material is how I see him. And if he doesn't come up with a decent set of policies between now and spring 2015 he will be torn apart (a la Cameron, who himself thought he had a nailed down set of policies prior to GE2010) during the election run-up. And Ed being torn apart with that wide-eyed, stuttery, bullied-kid-at-school look is not going to win many swing votes.
So I think there is a very good chance, given where we are now, that the Conservatives will win the most votes at the next GE, but not a majority (perhaps even not the most seats) and that we could end up needing another GE.
I do think that Labour would be doing far better now with Darling or Johnson or Yvette Cooper in charge.
Now matter how hard I try to imagine it, I just can't see Ed Miliband in charge. He's too weedy. It just ain't happening.
That said, I agree it's a mug's market. Prices are largely based on where people are now, not where they'll be in, say, seven years' time, and there are so many possible replacements that identifying possible winners at value prices is nigh-on impossible. It's far from impossible that the next Speaker isn't even listed (yes, you could ask for odds if you pick a candidate but it doesn't make the task any easier).
"A few months ago, we were treated to the unexpected sight of lobbying companies begging the Government to regulate them by law. Now that ministers have obliged, by publishing a Bill, the lobbying companies - sorry, public affairs consultancies - are complaining that the proposed legislation is nothing like stringent enough.
And they have a point. The problem is the definition of who has to go on the compulsory register of lobbyists, and with whom all government contact would have to be disclosed. As the draft Bill stands, the companies who have to go on the register are those whose “main” business is lobbying. Thus it excludes big corporations, who employ their own in-house lobbyists, trade unions and indeed many lobbying companies if they do other things as well.
Hence the embarrassment for the Labour Party, which doesn’t want trade unions to be included on the register, but which now finds that the Government’s definition might not even catch Crosby Textor, the Australian company set up by Lynton Crosby. This matters because Crosby is Labour’s Great Bugbear, the campaign consultant who advises David Cameron and who is credited with magical powers which allegedly won Boris Johnson re-election as London mayor last year."
"As a matter of low politics, this debate is engaging for partisans. Ed Miliband noticed that Cameron’s answer to the Crosby question was that he had “not been lobbied” by the Australian consultant about possible laws to try to make cigarettes less attractive to young people. Since then Labour has pursued the Prime Minister about whether he had “discussions” with Crosby about plain packaging for cigarettes. The technical term for this is a Westminster hoo-ha.
If Miliband were able to see this through the eyes of a normal person he would see two things. One is that the reason for Cameron apparent evasion is probably that he had a conversation with Crosby along the lines of, “Of course we can’t talk about Government policy on cigarettes because of your client list.” The other is that for Labour to bang on about someone whom the median voter thinks might be a folk rock musician suits Cameron down to the ground."
www.buckinghamtoday.co.uk/news/local/bercow-blasts-hs2-environment-study-1-5292890
Am I the only cricket fan on PB at the moment? If so I'd better shut up about it.
The point about Lynton Crosby isn't that he's in league with the cigarette companies or the booze manufacturers it's that keeping him in the news reminds centre and left of centre voters-particularly ex Lib Dems- that the Tories are now embracing as their guru a 'nasty' imported right-winger.
Those Lib Dems and soft left voters who were warming to the Hilton/Cameron team now need to be instructed on what the new ticket looks like. No more hugging huskies or windmills on roofs......
This is now quite a different cast and Labour are doing all in their power to keep the link in the public gaze. It's working for me......
I suppose the alternative view might be that you cherry pick the bad news whilst steadfastly ignoring that over all things are improving.
The last Speaker to be formally removed was Manners-Sutton in 1835, after 18 years...
Bercow looks good for another 10-15 years.
I'll make sure Conservative head office are made aware of this. We can't have our key target voters being put off.
http://facts.pm/bear-selfie/
The important thing about Martin's removal in this context is that it legitimised the act. Bercow will almost certainly see out this parliament, he will probably see out the next but I'd be surprised if he did more.
< 1% RT @tnewtondunn: YouGov have polled for us to find out how many people know who Lynton Crosby is. Any guesses?
Talking of which, Paddy's 1/10 on Osborne still Chancellor at the end of 2013, 1/2 on Clegg still LibDem leader at the GE, the widely available 1/5 on date of election 2015, and Ladbrokes' 2/5 on Osborne still Chancellor at the election, may all be worth considering. Time's Wingèd Chariot has been hurrying on since those odds were first set.
There is no doubting that a problem exists with credit supply particularly to SMEs.
There are conflicting priorities at work here. UK banks need to increase the capital they hold to protect the taxpayer against having to bail them out again if they suffer catastrophic losses. At the same time the government wants these undercapitalised banks to increase lending and thereby increase their capital cover shortfall.
The intervened banks (Lloyds and RBoS) as well as Santander (Spanish pressure mitiigated by UK ringfencing) are most affected. It is not simply a matter of raising capital (a rights issue would only be a further call on government funds) but of reducing loans which have high capital cover requirements.
Hence, for all the threat of Vince unleashing his nuclear weapon on them if they don't up their lending and for all the BoE pump in 'pass-through' money, these banks' first (and ultimately the government's and taxpayers) priority is to sort their balance sheets out. This means lending will remain constrained until the capital problems have been solved.
Once the balance sheets are robust then the government can return the banks to the private sector and they can raise capital normally from the markets. Lending will no longer be the problem it is today.
You will note from the BoE quarterly Trends in Lending report that the shortfall of £3.5 billion is almost wholly accounted for by Lloyds, RBoS and Santander, Other banks, e.g. Barclays and HSBC are increasing their lending to businesses and are forecasting further increases.
So the lending problem is essentially yet another fall out from the Brown bust and one which is taking time to mend.
It is probable that the BoE and the Treasury will make further extraordinary monetary interventions in the autumn (mortgage book buyouts) and look at other channels through which to distribute funds to SMEs, but there is only a limited window available for special measures.
Time is healing the underlying problems with the banks balance sheets.
Ultimately, tim, this is yet another of the tasks given to Osborne to clear up the mess left behind by Brown. He is making progress slowly but this is understandable given the amount of Brown stuff that he has to shift.
The job Osborne is doing is near-Herculean.
Bercow, provided he doesn't bring the chair into disrepute, can basically stay as long as he wants, or until he turns up his toes.
So the operative question becomes: how long does he want the job for?
Particularly applies to large enterprises who have been accumulating cash reserves and have alternative sources of finance to tap.
It is SMEs who are mainly dependent on the high street retail banks which are finding it difficult to get finance. Risk is an issue affecting both demand and supply but so too is general confidence in the economy.
Still, come this time next year, my predicition is that this will just be another bump in the road successfully negotiated.
tim's ammunition stocks are fast depleting.
I may have mis remembered though.
Perhaps once again Ed will find himself as part of the 1%.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zinooici1f/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-120713.pdf
'IIRC Yougov asked both if you knew who LC was and what job he held."
That's the point-they will now and if they don't they certainly will in a years time.
Sometimes the public warm to pantomime villains. I don't think they will with Lynton
Do you think it is a good use of Ed's time ?
He should sub contract it to a left wing blogger / back bencher.
Another symptom of having no policies and no vision.
Unnecessary barnacles I'd say.
http://likes.com/cute/surprisingly-cute-baby-animals?utm_term=25697166&utm_campaign=ml&pid=110733&utm_source=mylikes&utm_medium=cpc&v=eyJjbGlja19pZCI6IDE1ODUyNjU5MjksICJwb3N0X2lkIjogMjU2OTcxNjZ9&page=2
Lily Allen and Mervyn King are sitting together watching the cricket.
Tuffnell to Aggers: What are they discussing?
Answers from a post card please,
'Do you think it is a good use of Ed's time ?
He should sub contract it to a left wing blogger / back bencher."
I used to wonder whether trips to the Arctic to hug a Husky or to build windmills on his roof or to rent a photographer to snap him on his bike was a good use of Cameron's time or whether the excellent Steve Hilton had got it wrong.....Now I'm sure he didn't.
The image of the Tory Party was significantly changed. The Tories not only became the largest Party but they'd made themselves look sufficiently voter friendly to get the Lib Dems onside.
All Hilton's doing and probably all being trashed by Crosby.
Michael Hutchinson @Doctor_Hutch 28m
Apparently James Murdoch is now stranded at the top of Alpe d'Huez after his helicopter out was grounded by lightening. #TdF
(only kidding!)
The guy made a typo in the original tweet. BFD.
Welcome to the silly season.
The Lib Dems have called for a curse to be placed on Northampton Borough Council. This is due to them deciding that a 4,000-year-old Egyptian statue of Sekhemka, valued at £2 million, should cease to be under municipal ownership sitting in a vault and instead be sold by auction.
It is the Liberal Democrat opposition leader, Cllr Brendan Glynane who declared the council should be cursed.
He said:
“I‘ve read there is a curse attached to Sekhemka and if it should fall on anyone, it should fall on this administration for not having the courage to change their minds.”
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Officials-raise-concern-over-shortage-of-condoms/-/688334/1918226/-/13s78iqz/-/index.html
This is no laughing matter - on current fertility rates Ugandas population will rise from 34m to 1.2bn by the end of the century.
* No doubt ex-socialist MPs are still computing their future luxuary-flats allowance from sad said savings : Bless the Danes...!
http://quizilla.teennick.com/user_images/S/serialzero/1068121069_PicsRimmer.jpg
In the previous 18 Tests when Ian Bell has scored a century, England have never lost.
http://uk.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&p=dwayne+dibley+red+dwarf
Jack Straw: How Gordon Brown misused the office of PM by visiting troops during Tory conference http://bit.ly/15LBbZw
Marco Rubio 11.4%
Rand Paul 10.5%
Paul Ryan 9.3%
Jeb Bush 8.7%
Chris Christie 7.7%
Rick Santorum 6.7%
Ted Cruz 6.1%
Scott Walker 2.1%
Bobby Jindal 1.3%
Unsure 36.3%
"Condom shortage hits Uganda....."
Sounds like a line from Private Eye. Just short of the words 'Tory MP....'
The funniest bit is Ed's petulance.
"My leadership numbers are so crap because of Lynton Crosby. It's NOT FAIR! (blub)"
"It showed both that he was paralysed in terms of decision making, but also this remarkable propensity for double-think and disingenuity which I’d not really understood was a characteristic of his until then.”
I'm sure Jack Straw is telling the truth, but it is staggering nonetheless. They'd been in the Cabinet together for ten years, and working closely together for years before that.
Lords is full up with Rogers.
How anyone can be so ruthless in wanting power, and then having no idea what to do with it is frightening.
http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/politics/northampton-borough-council-should-be-cursed-for-statue-sale-1-5295007
One buys the LOTO and the other advises the Prime Minister ..strong connection, only in PB leftie world
Tour de France rider with some trouble with his bike - Somewhere in the early 1900's pic.twitter.com/cjQ3b9FfLd
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPeLZKHCAAInbtg.jpg:large
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2ITuIMYfz8
Gordon felt that he had been cheated of the leadership by a younger rival. That was what animated his desire for power: resentment. He could not - or would not - accept that the younger pupil had outrun him in the race.
Psychology is - in politics as elsewhere - often a better guide to what's going on than a look at policies.
I may have to rub some Vick or tiger balm under my nose. Like they do on the telly before doing an autopsy on a decomp.
https://twitter.com/robmanuel/status/354639914454884352/photo/1
What a t***