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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of a 2017 general election have just increased
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of a 2017 general election have just increased
The Lib Dems have their mojo back. Their result in Witney was good but safe seat or not, second is the best-placed loser. It’s winning that counts and it was a win that was delivered in Richmond Park on Thursday. After more than ten years without a gain, the campaign surge, the tactical votes and the Friday celebration must come as a long-overdue reminder of the good old days – and possibly the good young days. That’s yet to be seen.
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Position in the Lords is also strengthening. Lab + LD lead over Con is now down to 53 and Lab turnout is always quite a bit lower than Con. Lab + LD rarely have 20 more Peers present than Con.
If Con gets decent Crossbench support they win. LDs may dig heels in but I doubt Crossbenchers will - if they have Parliamentary Ping-Pong into the night and Con keeps a high turnout in the building they should win in the end.
Remember Con won the Lords votes on EU referendum vote at 16 and on the Electoral Registration Act - both against strong Lab + LD opposition. And Con Lords position has strengthened since then.
Also maybe the option of slipping in another 10 to 15 Con Peers in next few months.
The high profile examples in my post below show that that's not always the case.
If Crossbenchers think that the LDs (and maybe Lab) are playing games and tying the Govt's hands in the negotiations it's very likely they will take a pretty dim view of it and if that happens the Govt may well win.
I'm not saying the Govt couldn't lose - they could. But the LDs are going to have to be very, very careful. If they overplay it and alienate the Crossbenchers they will lose.
http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data
Clinton 229.89
Trump 308.11
That's 538 votes divided amongst the states exactly in proportion to their voting-eligible population.
Edit: the sum didn't add up to 538, so fixed that!
If it was done amongst actual voters (Ignore the theoretical perversion that if you're voting for Donald in California or Hillary in Texas you're actually harming your own candidate a second)
Trump: 305.8391285
Clinton: 232.1608715
Mind you, I'd also be sadly puzzled if you told me to go to the attractive part of London.
"The Bank of England declined to say whether there was a legal obligation to accept the notes."
Last time I checked, Bank of England banknotes were legal tender that can not be refused for payment of goods/services.
We'll have Brexit-lite now; EEA membership and freedom of movement for 'some'. (I don't remember the Referendum being about our EEA membership, only EU). So we may get a bum deal and be worse off but hey ho that's what those who voted to leave appreciated would happen.
So who would want to vote for a party set on pushing gruel down your throat? i.e. no election in 2017.
I tried to imagine what the government's A50/Brexit plan is and have been forced to the conclusion that there isn't one; they are just busking it. That's why I think they would quietly welcome a few spanners in the works from the Supreme Court and the Lords. It would push back A50 toward the 2020 election by which time enough Leavers will have died of old age (1.3% of the UK population die every year, simple demographics dictate that the vast majority of them are Leavers) to make a 2nd referendum palatable and a Remain result inevitable.
The tallow fivers are becoming an issue in Leicester, not just with Hindus and Sikhs. There are lots of white vegetarians too.
Snarky edit: unlike a number of posters here I read articles before commenting....
The hypocrisy remains though as it's a small majority so it should be rerun and legal action in the courts should be taken to ensure the Okney Islands Parish council can determine the positioning of the 3rd runway at Heathrow irrespective of the voters preferred democratic wishes.
Alternatively I suppose none of that applies here because the voters have been deemed to have "voted the correct way".
* Still glad Zac got stuffed by the way ......he deserved it.
Clearlly you do not understand why vegetarians (whether driven by religious or other beliefs) do not want to have to have to handle non-veg banknotes. I do.
Welcome, by the way!
A 100% proportional system would have obviously seen Clinton winning.
That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."
Edit:
Sorry.. extension DOES require unanimity amongst the Council members:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2107362/Thousands-vegetarians-eating-gelatin-products-medicines-realising.html
The fiver issue is that there is a perfectly viable alternative. Tenners and coins.
Now this really is a car crash, pile up interview and exposes the utter total hypocrisy of remain and the new Richmond MP in all its glorious colour.
http://order-order.com/2016/12/02/sarah-olney-walks-interview-spin-doctor-intervenes/#disqus_thread
You know they are not actually going to change anything, they've just booted it into the long grass
Elliot Wagland
The Sarah Olney and Tim Farron face swap is amazing #RichmondPark https://t.co/l9yAozqISv
Whether our own hopelessly divided and dithering government can arrive at a unanimous position on our side of the table may well be a different kettle of fish.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_in_the_Council_of_the_European_Union
Some knowledgeable people seem to be saying that a free trade agreement would require unanimity, even if a deal covering who pays Neil Kinnock's pension etc had already been agreed by QMV.
* actually, on reflection, I can't. They just need to grow up
The government are in denial. Hence all this business about not revealing any plans or involving Parliament.
On one or two occasions in my life I've had people who had issues with gelatine capsules, and with pork or beef insulin (when that was used). Religious people are usually a lot more sensible than (some at least) committed vegans and don't bother.
I have once or twice met a vegan who opened their capsules and just took the ingredients. The medicines themselves of course would have been tested on animals, and might well contain some animal products.
To paraphrase: Brexit delayed means Brexit denied.
The election may well then arrive not at a moment of her own choosing, and elections in the circumstances of government disarray do not tend to be kind to incumbents.
Got some more reviews for Kingdom Asunder, still averaging about 4.7 stars
There's a piece here on who might be Hamilton's team mate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38185491
If you believe it, ignoring the stupidity of giving three drivers an 8 or 9 out of 10 chance of getting the gig..., then back Bottas (9/10) at 5 on Ladbrokes. I may put a smidgen on, as a saver if it's not Wehrlein. Or not. Undecided as yet.
I'm less convinced Vettel will go. Yes, he'd want to. But would the team want another potentially fractious relationship? Would the Ferrari contract enable him to go? Hmm.
Ms Hartley-Brewer kept going on about how difficult it was to get Mrs Olney to agree to an interview. Mrs Olney should have gone with her instincts
Before I investigate this myself, has this poll been debunked already? I can't see how opinion can have shifted so far and so fast even in an area which has more to lose than most.
Trumpism/Ukippery feels to me like a mix of nostalgia and nihilism. It's smash the house down politics, almost entirely anti, but I do not hear any sense of what people want instead and how they are going to get there. What do you actually want Plato, give me some policies?
It's clear that the fundamental problem is inequality, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer and this has shifted from a class thing to a generational thing, exacerbated by globalisation. How can you redress this? The same people who weep crocodile tears will accuse any government that tries to do anything about these problems as anti business?
In this context, the vote on Europe is a chimera, Europe is but a symptom of the wider ill that is globalisation. The left would address this, rightly or wrongly through a socislistic solution, but as we've seen that appears not to have electoral support.
I ask again, how will the right tackle this problem?
":: Then on Friday, shortly after 2am, Sarah Olney won a spectacular by-election victory and claimed - with good reason - it was Brexit wot won it."
http://news.sky.com/story/richmond-park-by-election-zac-goldsmiths-defeat-is-a-tory-disaster-10679647
Edited to prevent the isolated being treated as the norm.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/03/zac-goldsmith-last-punt-self-loathing-accumulator-richmond-park
'the erstwhile Richmond Park MP has contrived to pull off a stunning shitshow accumulator this year'. LOL.
Mr. G, the next ten and twenty pound notes will be made using the same process, I understand. If so, the shop will be limited to coins and fifty pound notes.
Is it a plane?
Is it an informed change to our trading strategy?
No, it's BREXIT here to save us from the IMMAGRRNTS!
http://webcomicname.tumblr.com/image/152958755984
We live in a parliamentary democracy not an episode of the X factor.
I remain hopeful for a softer rather than harder Brexit, but the time and effort and luck needed to achieve it are significant. Those still hoping to stop Brexit altogether add the difficulty that politically the option needs democratic cover if the reversal is not itself then reversed again, and requires even more effort and luck, and is reliant on the public being very very clear in a way that is impossible. Even if the LDs won sleaford, it's only one constituency. And it would need to happen very soon as May will trigger a50 by march as she's tied herself to the madt on that front.
All of which is a long winded way of saying I agree with David that the approach will be more about trying to direct the government's approach rather than outright prevent, even if a few do wish they had the opportunity to prevent. I really don't think that manybif us leavers will switch so soon to be so obvious MPs woukd risk it.
I must say I'm a bit surprised by the reaction. Still, imagine if it weren't beef tallow but pork tallow (assuming there is such a thing).