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@RCS
Valls doesn't do much better for the Socialists, but for Macron I think it is a big bonus to have a man who embodies the France in need of his reforms standing on the stage with him. He would have liked two, but never mind.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l'élection_présidentielle_française_de_2017
As expected they are very good for Fillon
Harris Interactive
Fillon 26 Le Pen 24 Macron 14 Mélenchon 13 Hollande 9 Bayrou 6
Jadot 3 Dupont Aignan 3 Poutou 1 Arthaud 1
Second round: Fillon 67 Le Pen 33
Odoxa
Fillon 32 Le Pen 22 Macron 13 Mélenchon 12 Hollande 8 Bayrou 6
Jadot 2 Dupont Aignan 2 Arthaud 2 Poutou 1
Second round Fillon 71 Le Pen 29
As far as I know, 22 is her lowest score in a presidential poll since 2013.
A dismissal or resignation seems a strong possibility this week.
The Harris Interactive poll also tested Valls as a candidate but he did not have better results, reachin only 9% and fifth place as Hollande.
And of course Macron has already asked Bayrou to join him. He might just do it but I'm not sure it would bring many more votes to Macron.
http://www.richmond.com/opinion/our-opinion/bart-hinkle/article_9035dbef-a567-5438-9600-6a01fa510654.html
In particular, I like the idea of the ideological Turing Test:
The prescription for the ailment is the “Ideological Turing Test,” invented by Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University. It’s simple enough: If you truly understand your political adversary, then you should be able to write an essay explicating his or her point of view well enough that a neutral judge cannot tell the difference.
Agreed with Breitbart. France has already its own far-right websites that are doing really well (fdesouche, riposte laique, boulevard voltaire...). I'm not sure what Breitbart would bring to the Front National, especially as Ms Le Pen's fans are usually violently anti-US.
The funny thing is that the Hysterical Left-wing attacks this week against Fillon seems to have only weakened Le Pen by proving that Fillon is also an enemy of the leftist inquisitors who consider their right to choose for everyone else.
The most blatant example is that in 2011 not a single right-wing journalist or politician called right-wing electors to go and rig the socialist open primary.
This time all the left-wing press (Le Monde, Liberation, L'Obs, Inrocks, Challenges, and of course the public radio and tv channels) and many politicians (even socialist MPs and ministers) openly called left-wing electors to designate the only right-wing candidate deemed suitable by them (Juppe).
The funny thing is that it backfired spectacularly. Of course without left-wing voters Juppe would have barely reached 20% of the vote, but helping him to reach 35 did not accomplish anything. Except that each voter paid 2 euros and Fillon will start with a nice war chest thanks in part to these socialists with a very cunning plan...
I'd give him a 15% chance of making the final two, with him losing to Fillon, but beating Le Pen
He had also a very poor campaign team. Worse, he let P. Stefanini, his right-hand man for decades, go work for Fillon. Stefanini was already a legend since he engineered the campaign of Chirac in 1995 (taking him from 15% in the poll to the presidency by running as a quasi-left wing insurgent) and lots of supposedly unwinnable campaigns at regional or municipal level.
As Fillon's campaign director he managed a strong and efficient network, with hundreds of local meetings and millions of pieces of campaign literature in target areas. In many strongly right-wing areas, the only campaign literature received was from Fillon. It worked very well as a support to his debating performances, especially with pensioners (who represented a large part of the selectorate).
Juppe had a very small team, relying mainly on national media appearances and on enthusiatic but very inexperienced young supporters. They were proven to be extremely complacent.
Sarkozy did not have the same ground game but thought he could rely on old barons to deliver "their" votes in right-wing areas. It completely failed, even in his own former constituency.
*) Fight with another UKIP MEP.
*) Was never really leader.
*) Turns out to be an immigrant.
*) Turns out to be sane.
*) Is really Nigel Farage in a mask.
By the way, those on this site who think that Breitbart might come out in support of Le Pen seem to have lost sight of the ethnic background of the man who founded and those who own/run this news website; the FN would be an anathema to them, unlike Trump (or UKIP).
According to this Fillon is a socially conservative, catholic, Gauillist who now thinks Maggie Thatcher had a point and the State needs to be cut back. He sounds somewhat conflicted.
My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:
1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.
2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.
No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.
- It's a Stein scam to exploit voter unhappiness to line Green Party coffers, that seems plausible if you've a low opinion of her scruples.
- It's now a joint scam in collusion with Team Hillary to generally undermine the legitimacy of Trump, that's gaining ground given Hillary could've shut down this in a minute.
- It's a ploy to deliberately mess up the Electoral College confirmation timetable by saying it's impossible to complete recounts in time. Given the tedious process used, this also has credibility. There are of course no recounts in marginal Hillary win states - and many reports of pressure/threats to create faithless voters.
There are others, but these are getting the most chatter.
What exciting times.
2. Don't see how Hilary could have 'shut this down'... Stein can do it on her own if she likes- Hilary can't stop her.
3. Trump will be sworn in on time- Obama is clearly very keen on an orderly transition of power.
There are no recounts in marginal Hilary win states because Trump doesn't need them! He has won! If he needed a recount... you can be sure a recount would be happening.
The US electoral system is borken (*). As such, I support any attempt to try to work out if the system is actually working at all properly. Recounts would provide evidence some either way.
Remember, we're not just talking about a system where many places use voting machines that are highly flawed; as Trump said overnight, there may be many illegals voting, whilst on the other side, there have been serious attempts to stop people who have the right to, from voting.
Given this, anything that puts pressure on them to move to a saner system is to be congratulated; for light needs to be shone upon the fractures in the system. It does not need to be swept under the carpet and ignored.
(*) If you remember, I have said this before this election as well.
What I mean is that these people already vote Le Pen and that explains her high first-round score..
The people still calling themselves left-wingers in France (around a third of voters) are defined mainly by their strong opposition to Le Pen.
To be clear, no one will vote Mélenchon, Montebourg, Jadot, Valls or Hollande in the first round and then Le Pen (well at least not enough to be statiscally significant).
Some will certainly abstain but no transfers can be expected.
The only hope of victory for Marine Le Pen is to face a left-winger because some Republicains voters would choose her over a socialist (or worse a far-leftist like Melenchon). But it seems pretty unlikely for the moment.
Market seems to be assuming it's him vs. Le Pen and he will win easily if that's the case.
Both sizeable assumptions I would suggest...
Le Pen says she wants to exit the euro and the EU, closing the frontiers ASAP and re-establish strong tariffs even with european neighbors.
(that's the part of her program many of her supporters find too radical so she tends to tone it down during campaigns).
Fillon says he wants to abandon the fiction of a federation of 27 members and concentrate on a renewed euro-zone: keeping the euro but with joint economic policies decided by heads of state and governments, not the Commission or the European Parliament.
Fillon will push back against further federalism, will want greater contols on migrants coming from outside the EU, would be sympathetic to trying to prevent benefit shopping.
But he sees the EU as the institution that allows Italy, France and Spain to limit German hegemony. I think that is so central to French thinking, that I think they cannot countenance leaving the EU.
Italy is less hung up on history, while Spain and most of the smaller countries remain very Europhile. If the EU collapses in the next decade, it will have been because Italy was never able to adjust its economic model to work in the Eurozone.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/803033642545115140
Mark Conway
I get the impression that attending Castro's funeral is more important to Jezza than being leader of the Opposition. Probably just me. https://t.co/ltHe5V0N0C
Former FA chief exec tells @GMB dozens of coaches were banned after a 2001 football commission into abuse https://t.co/Xu8qFV39HU https://t.co/ZPsouhmwVN
Basically the French people as a whole need to take along hard look at themselves. Le Pen is attractive because she postpones the day when this has to happen. But happen it will have to at some stage.
Wasn't Clinton a 92% chance?
F1: season finale post-race ramble is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis-2016.html
http://www.iam-media.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=1d739f07-4a98-4248-9f96-95cadcbe09f7
FWIW, he thinks that most EU states would like a transitional arrangement that saw us continue to pay subscriptions at some level, and which minimised disruption. The big barrier, in his mind, is the UK political environment.
You need to sort out your fellow travellers in Leave.
Just remember it was Italy who in 92 or 93 kicked up a major fuss because they were not going to be one of the founder members of the eurozone. The Bundesbank fought bravely to keep them out of the first tranche but were politically over ruled. BTP yields then unsurprisingly collapsed as convergence occurred amongst the eurozone founder states.
This is just an unwinding of that.
Mr. Eagles, isn't the German chap an elected politician rather than a central bank governor stepping into the policy arena?
I don't think so, just more details about process. As we remainers have said all along, getting out of the EU after 40 years is going to be a very complex and difficult process.
This is just an unwinding of that.
Supersatehood and common currency/exchange rates/interest rates in the real world implies a necessary alignment of attitudes to debt, to politics and to economics. But Italians and Germans are just NOT the same. Merging a Teutonic Calvinist industrious and industrial northern rules loving killjoy with a Catholic carefree corrupt dolce vita semi-permanent chaos loving wideboy isn't a recipe for anything coherent or lasting.
Perhaps you can direct me to your posts criticising him when he intervened during the Indyref in a similar manner.
I guess the question is, do we want an independent central bank or not? It's OK to say 'no', but then we should give up the pretence and allow the Chancellor to take over monetary policy again.
"He also wants to return British border controls, which currently operate in Calais, to the UK."
No doubt the Tories have a little black book of Corbyn horror that will get fully wheeled out at the next GE. That man is repugnant human being. I'm so happy the Labour party is ruled by him.
Deplorable Sarah
.@GovScottWalker Note that @DrJillStein collected money BEFORE filing recount petition contrary to Wisconsin Election Law. @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/3PInd6wTwM
Mr. Eagles, commenting on currency, inflation and interest rates is fine. Attempting to influence policy is not. If Carney wants to do that, let him stand for election.
What part of the Bank of England's independence don't you like ?
Is it that the Bank and its Governor isn't parroting your lines ?
It would also be interesting to see how views on Castro changes between age groups.
The major intervention Carney made was on currency. If he wants to comment on the UK not joining the eurozone if we leave the EU, that's fine.
And I'm not saying there's necessarily anything wrong with a transitional period, or perhaps even staying in the single market. I'm saying policy is a matter for politicians, and that if Carney wants to influence matters beyond his job he can stand for election.
I will regularly post poll results when I get them . If OGH is interested I could try to do something on the left-wing primary after the list of candidates is clarified (probably not before next week anyway).
A ship nearly sunk in the Channel last week:
http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/207355/maib-kicks-off-investigation-of-saga-sky-collision/
Looking at the damage, they were lucky to get back to port.
Extra point if anyone can tell me why railways were involved in this
Ken Livingstone mentions Hitler while defending Cuban leader as 'absolute giant of 20th Century'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/fidel-castro-dies-dead-ken-livingstone-hitler-cuba-human-rights-abuses-giant-of-20th-century-a7440536.html
I think my question is why now has this story been relit ? Because if saville ?
Minnesota -44,756
Nevada* -27,202
Maine -19,995
New Hampshire* -2,736
Michigan +10,704
Wisconsin +22,525
Pennsylvania +68,030
Why isn't Stein asking for a recount in Minnesota ?
Or Maine ?
Why didn't she ask for one in New Hampshire, or Nevada (Certified now) ?