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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    And if you look at YouGov, EdM is doing very poorly on almost every aspect. I've bolded the VI % as evidence of my other post just in case anyone missed this fascinating article.

    They should have chosen his brother.

    "(How can I be sure that Ed would have lost a fair contest? Because YouGov also polled individual party members, and found only a 2% shift from David to Ed between July and September. Had trade unionists swung by 2% from David to Ed, David would have won the overall contest comfortably. David would also have been the victor had union members swung by 4% or even 8% to his younger brother. Union leaders needed a campaign swing well into double figures to make Ed leader. They set about their task with single-minded determination and got their way. Not only did they violate the principles of fairness; they also ignored the fact that in the 2010 election, 49% of union members voted for one of the two coalition parties and only 38% for Labour.) http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/09/ed-milibands-route-victory/

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=88&view=wide#2013

    The ComRes favourability ratings have Dave and Ed level.

    Tonight we should see Survation favourability numbers - the firm has switched to this model.



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    Amusing that he's managed to link himself to big tobacco companies then isn't it.

    His link to big tobacco is less direct than Tony Blair's was.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Syria: Stories have it that Israel has struck Syrian military stores last weekend in the port town of Lattakia.

    Russia will be upset as the stores hit are believed to have contained advanced missile gear that they shipped. Previously they had warned Israel not to intervene against such shipments.

    If the gear blown up is ever verified it would be no use whatsoever in the current death match being fought in the country but very useful when it comes to threatening neighbors.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @Plato YouGov in the UK don't ask leader satisfaction, approval or favourability questions

    They do in the US
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It's very difficult to remain objective in assessing the chances of the parties during the election. One's surroundings inevitably have an influence.

    Living in Surrey I sense labour don;t have a chance. Then I picked one of my kids up from Uni. in Nottingham took one look around and thought blimey, labour are nailed on.

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Agreed.

    I was always amazed me how Blair managed to get away with that. Remember his "I'm an ordinary guy" quote when questioned on the linkage.
    Neil said:

    tim said:


    Amusing that he's managed to link himself to big tobacco companies then isn't it.

    His link to big tobacco is less direct than Tony Blair's was.
  • Options
    Neil said:

    tim said:


    Amusing that he's managed to link himself to big tobacco companies then isn't it.

    ....in your opinion
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    Change in net since start of 2013:

    Cameron: -1
    Miliband: -9

    Miliband's lead has gone from "clearly ahead" to "Margin of Error"

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    Tony Blair eased rules on tobacco sponsorship after he pocketed a huge donation from a party with an interest in it.

    Cameron has made a political decision - he wasnt bought.

    You may think the latter is more objectionable, I think you're in a minority on that.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And I wasn't and didn't refer to MORI - I made the observation that YouGov's questions regarding EdM's leadership qualities are poor.

    From the same source as cited above - only 20% of voters think he's up to being PM, 33% of GE2010 Labour voters don't think he's up to it either.

    That you prefer MORI is fine, but I cite another perfectly legitimate source regarding Being PM - which was @JackW's point.

    @Plato YouGov in the UK don't ask leader satisfaction, approval or favourability questions

    They do in the US

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    @tim Cameron has shown himself to be their stooge by his actions, whether through lobbying, fear of UKIP or Crosby's electoral tactics/lobbying links he's certainly bent to tobacco companies wishes and reversed his previous position.

    ..in your opinion
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Being a member of a union is surely one of the most trivial aspects of one's life unless its your personal greasy pole.

    I'm not sure about that Plato. I'm sure unions do a lot of good work sorting out employees' problems, representing them individually in disputes, making sure they aren't bullied etc. More than once in my working life I wish I;d had a union rep to go to with a grievance!!

    Trouble is, unions don;t stick to doing what it says on the tin. Len doesn;t want to represent his members, he wants to rule the country and is trying to do it by the back door.

    That is Cameron's point surely. It isn;t about unions. It's about union influence. And its about unions straying from what they are supposed to do.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,113
    I find it slightly odd that some people who are in favour of drugs legalisation wish to be less liberal with tobacco.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    What he is objecting to is the involuntary confiscation of salary by Unions from their members for the purpose of funding a political party.

    The rules of every trade union's political fund must be put to a ballot of all members, Avery. Recent results have been showing c. 90% + yes votes. For those who are outvoted in these ballots and unhappy with the rules of the fund there is always the option to opt out.

    But more importantly my point is that wider than the spat over funding Cameron and his top team are managing to give the impression that it is the wider trade union movement that is a problem. I do not think this is great politics.
    Para 1. It is inertia selling and, ipso facto, wrong. Not necessarily evil, nor even impossible to justify, just simply wrong. It is an abuse of negotiating power.

    Para 2. Would Cameron recognise a union negotiator if confronted with a glass of warm beer and sandwich filled with a Cathedral cheddar slice? I doubt it.

    He benefits by quietly ignoring the unions rather than actively trying to recruit their members. Due respect in the back room negotiations, but no public acknowledgement whether positive or negative.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    scampi said:

    Neil said:

    tim said:


    Amusing that he's managed to link himself to big tobacco companies then isn't it.

    ....in your opinion
    There's a marvellous meme in the series Boston Legal where one judge is a total stickler for lawyers not making claims without evidence, every one before her fails unless they preface statements with 'in my opinion'.

    It's most amusing watching newbie characters trying to learn the rules of the game. If you haven't seen BL - it really is superb. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0402711/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    taffys said:

    It isn;t about unions. It's about union influence. And its about unions straying from what they are supposed to do.

    Trade unions were invented in order to exert influence. In turn they invented the Labour party as their political vehicle. They are doing exactly what they are meant to be doing.

    The Coalition is restricting the ability of workers to take unfair dismissal claims. The only way to represent workers' interests on that issue is to exert political influence where possible. It is an entirely legitimate activity for trade unions (they would be remiss if they did nothing about it).
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    At tne end of April 1979 a woman called Mrs Thatcher was trailing Jim Callaghan by 21% on the "best PM" question with MORI

    Plato said:

    And I wasn't and didn't refer to MORI - I made the observation that YouGov's questions regarding EdM's leadership qualities are poor.

    From the same source as cited above - only 20% of voters think he's up to being PM, 33% of GE2010 Labour voters don't think he's up to it either.

    That you prefer MORI is fine, but I cite another perfectly legitimate source regarding Being PM - which was @JackW's point.

    @Plato YouGov in the UK don't ask leader satisfaction, approval or favourability questions

    They do in the US

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    Due respect in the back room negotiations, but no public acknowledgement whether positive or negative.

    And all I'm arguing is that's where he is going wrong. To me he is giving a clear impression of a negative attitude towards institutions that millions of people pay lots of money to belong to. I think that's bad politics.

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Mug bets from Ladbrokes following annoucement of Bob Crow's new party
    25/1 to win seat
    1/2 to lose deposit
    500/1 him being EdM's successor

    bit.ly/c5gpH6
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tipton nail bomb could have hit hundreds

    A one-hour delay to traditional Friday prayers saved hundreds of people from a nail bomb blast at a Black Country mosque.

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/crime/2013/07/13/tipton-nail-bomb-could-have-hit-hundreds/
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Guido has discovered that the Labour party investigates the effects of measures on ordinary people before deciding its opinion on them. Where would we be without this colossus of investigative journalism.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Don't unions have to do this only once a decade? I caught the tail-end of a R4 intv where it was mentioned and I was very surprised that it was so infrequent.

    Can you confirm if this is the case - of course a union could ballot its members more frequently if they suspected members weren't happy about it.
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    What he is objecting to is the involuntary confiscation of salary by Unions from their members for the purpose of funding a political party.

    The rules of every trade union's political fund must be put to a ballot of all members, Avery. Recent results have been showing c. 90% + yes votes. For those who are outvoted in these ballots and unhappy with the rules of the fund there is always the option to opt out.

    But more importantly my point is that wider than the spat over funding Cameron and his top team are managing to give the impression that it is the wider trade union movement that is a problem. I do not think this is great politics.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Change in net since start of 2013:

    Cameron: -1
    Miliband: -9

    Miliband's lead has gone from "clearly ahead" to "Margin of Error"

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
    More to the point, Plato's original post referred to Miliband's *own party voters. IIRC (haven't got a source to hand) Cameron does very well among Tory supporters, while Miliband's support is much more lukewarm.

    Of course you can argue that Cameron needs to do better in non-Tory supporters to stand a chance of winning...or that Miliband's limited support suggests Labour's lead is soft...

    Sometimes I feel like a barrister...argue any case... ;-)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    At tne end of April 1979 a woman called Mrs Thatcher was trailing Jim Callaghan by 21% on the "best PM" question with MORI



    Plato said:

    And I wasn't and didn't refer to MORI - I made the observation that YouGov's questions regarding EdM's leadership qualities are poor.

    From the same source as cited above - only 20% of voters think he's up to being PM, 33% of GE2010 Labour voters don't think he's up to it either.

    That you prefer MORI is fine, but I cite another perfectly legitimate source regarding Being PM - which was @JackW's point.

    @Plato YouGov in the UK don't ask leader satisfaction, approval or favourability questions

    They do in the US

    Was she a "stupid woman" Mike?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    And its not 1979. And frankly EdM is no Margaret Thatcher either.

    I think EdM is a dud along with the majority of the population - he occasionally pulls something out of the hat that perks up his ratings for a week or three and then he declines again.

    Two months ago 25% of YouGovers thought he was PM material - now its 20%, I assume he'll get an impact re the union funding which will boost him a speck. That isn't going to change long term opinions of him that have been forming for 3yrs.

    At tne end of April 1979 a woman called Mrs Thatcher was trailing Jim Callaghan by 21% on the "best PM" question with MORI



    Plato said:

    And I wasn't and didn't refer to MORI - I made the observation that YouGov's questions regarding EdM's leadership qualities are poor.

    From the same source as cited above - only 20% of voters think he's up to being PM, 33% of GE2010 Labour voters don't think he's up to it either.

    That you prefer MORI is fine, but I cite another perfectly legitimate source regarding Being PM - which was @JackW's point.

    @Plato YouGov in the UK don't ask leader satisfaction, approval or favourability questions

    They do in the US

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mug bets from Ladbrokes following annoucement of Bob Crow's new party
    25/1 to win seat
    1/2 to lose deposit
    500/1 him being EdM's successor

    bit.ly/c5gpH6

    Is 1/2 to lose deposit really a mug bet?

    2 years, 50% return, tax free. Doesn't seem too bad? What would happen if he doesn't stand anywhere - assume bet void, or does that count as a loser?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    There's little doubt that EdM's numbers of all kinds amongst LAB voters are some way below Dave's.

    Yet he is doing much better with 2010 LD voters who will have a huge impact on the GE2015 outcome.
    Charles said:

    Change in net since start of 2013:

    Cameron: -1
    Miliband: -9

    Miliband's lead has gone from "clearly ahead" to "Margin of Error"

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
    More to the point, Plato's original post referred to Miliband's *own party voters. IIRC (haven't got a source to hand) Cameron does very well among Tory supporters, while Miliband's support is much more lukewarm.

    Of course you can argue that Cameron needs to do better in non-Tory supporters to stand a chance of winning...or that Miliband's limited support suggests Labour's lead is soft...

    Sometimes I feel like a barrister...argue any case... ;-)
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    Due respect in the back room negotiations, but no public acknowledgement whether positive or negative.

    And all I'm arguing is that's where he is going wrong. To me he is giving a clear impression of a negative attitude towards institutions that millions of people pay lots of money to belong to. I think that's bad politics.

    Yes, you have a point.

    I am not sure though whether it is deliberate policy. More collateral damage from attacking Labour.

    Unlike the Tories attacks on benefit scroungers, the language used is not intentional and needs either softening to neutrality or, where Labour are the target, compensated for with assurances to union members predisposed to the Tory line.

    If only tim were to argue with your nuanced elegance ....

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    Change in net since start of 2013:

    Cameron: -1
    Miliband: -9

    Miliband's lead has gone from "clearly ahead" to "Margin of Error"

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
    MOE in the last month
    14 months on the trot before that Miliband has led Cameron.
    You've been in denial all that time
    And before that? Miliband started on +19 - are we simply returning to the status quo ante when Miliband had a poorer rating than Cameron? Miliband's recent satisfaction rating was his lowest ever...

    Cameron was on +20 two years out from the GE - Miliband is on -21

    Brown was on -48 two years out, Cameron is on -24

    Two years before 2010 the LotO led the PM by +68, today he leads by +3.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    There's little doubt that EdM's numbers of all kinds amongst LAB voters are some way below Dave's.

    Yet he is doing much better with 2010 LD voters who will have a huge impact on the GE2015 outcome.

    Charles said:

    Change in net since start of 2013:

    Cameron: -1
    Miliband: -9

    Miliband's lead has gone from "clearly ahead" to "Margin of Error"

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
    More to the point, Plato's original post referred to Miliband's *own party voters. IIRC (haven't got a source to hand) Cameron does very well among Tory supporters, while Miliband's support is much more lukewarm.

    Of course you can argue that Cameron needs to do better in non-Tory supporters to stand a chance of winning...or that Miliband's limited support suggests Labour's lead is soft...

    Sometimes I feel like a barrister...argue any case... ;-)
    So will you admit that, despite your sharp reply, Plato was actually right?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,113
    tim said:

    I find it slightly odd that some people who are in favour of drugs legalisation wish to be less liberal with tobacco.

    Thats because you don't understand the issues as no one is arguing tobacco should be criminalised or that ecstasy advertising should be allowed on CBBC.
    Which is not what I claimed; it's a stupid strawman attack.

    Besides, tobacco usage is becoming increasingly criminalised, as can be seen by the various rules and regulations to do with where smokers can smoke, where tobacco can be advertised, and how it is sold in shops. (*)

    How will you feel when alcohol can only be sold in clear glasses or bottles with no advertising, the only image on the label being of a drunken Liverpudlian vomiting in a gutter?

    (*) Note, I am not necessarily against these.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Thank goodness it didn't do an Admiral Duncan.

    There is something just so appalling about bombs filled with ball bearings or nails - I just can't imagine the mindset of anyone tipping pounds of them into a pipe and thinking 'oh that'll really be effective at ripping some poor sod to pieces.'

    Tipton nail bomb could have hit hundreds

    A one-hour delay to traditional Friday prayers saved hundreds of people from a nail bomb blast at a Black Country mosque.

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/crime/2013/07/13/tipton-nail-bomb-could-have-hit-hundreds/

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    That hour delay was lucky.

    Interestingly, this post was initially 50 characters too short. I don't think I've had that message from Vanilla before.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    There's little doubt that EdM's numbers of all kinds amongst LAB voters are some way below Dave's.

    Yet he is doing much better with 2010 LD voters who will have a huge impact on the GE2015 outcome.

    Charles said:

    Change in net since start of 2013:

    Cameron: -1
    Miliband: -9

    Miliband's lead has gone from "clearly ahead" to "Margin of Error"

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
    More to the point, Plato's original post referred to Miliband's *own party voters. IIRC (haven't got a source to hand) Cameron does very well among Tory supporters, while Miliband's support is much more lukewarm.

    Of course you can argue that Cameron needs to do better in non-Tory supporters to stand a chance of winning...or that Miliband's limited support suggests Labour's lead is soft...

    Sometimes I feel like a barrister...argue any case... ;-)
    So will you admit that, despite your sharp reply, Plato was actually right?
    The fact that reducing your party to it's core means you poll better among that core is not normally regarded as a positive.

    He's been doing well among Tories for a long time, even when the support was significantly higher than today
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:


    Is 1/2 to lose deposit really a mug bet?

    I cant find the bet on the website (who can find anything on their website) but if it is on Crowe to lose a deposit then it is a mug bet because you'll be tying money up only to get it back without interest in 2 years' time. He wont stand himself.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Charles said:



    He's been doing well among Tories for a long time, even when the support was significantly higher than today

    The most recent YouGov/STimes has Cameron on 92 with his own voters.

    And EdM on 58 with his.

    Clegg is on 54 with his.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8bycu00q7d/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-050713.pdf
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    isamisam Posts: 41,014
    England's batsmen have set a record target for Australia to chase at Trent Bridge, lets hope our bowlers can finish the job
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    O/T For Mr Dancer

    @DanHannanMEP A roman walks into bar and asks for a martinus. Barman says 'a martini'?No, says roman, if I'd wanted a double I'd have asked.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,113
    Plato said:

    Thank goodness it didn't do an Admiral Duncan.

    There is something just so appalling about bombs filled with ball bearings or nails - I just can't imagine the mindset of anyone tipping pounds of them into a pipe and thinking 'oh that'll really be effective at ripping some poor sod to pieces.'

    Tipton nail bomb could have hit hundreds

    A one-hour delay to traditional Friday prayers saved hundreds of people from a nail bomb blast at a Black Country mosque.

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/crime/2013/07/13/tipton-nail-bomb-could-have-hit-hundreds/

    Sadly, due to the other events yesterday afternoon the Tipton event is not getting as much media attention as it deserves. It will be interesting to see who planted the bomb and their reasons.

    Fortunately, whoever was behind it appears to have been as incompetent as this lot:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22344054

    An increase in tensions is the last thing we need ...
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Miliband, Balls and how BOTH romanced the Beeb's brainy beauty: Labour leader's less than gallant confession about his love life

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2362450/Miliband-Balls-BOTH-romanced-Beebs-brainy-beauty-Labour-leaders-gallant-confession-love-life.html

    The photo of young ed is special. ;-)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    O/T For Mr Dancer

    @DanHannanMEP A roman walks into bar and asks for a martinus. Barman says 'a martini'?No, says roman, if I'd wanted a double I'd have asked.

    Ha! There are some great ones today - I liked

    John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
    Two scientists go into a bar; 1st says: “A glass of H2O”. Other says: “I’ll have a glass of H2O too.” They drink, & 2nd scientist drops dead
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Pubgoer, I rather like that.

    And I'm not so fond of having to needlessly add 44 characters to register this.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited July 2013
    Plato said:

    Thank goodness it didn't do an Admiral Duncan.

    There is something just so appalling about bombs filled with ball bearings or nails - I just can't imagine the mindset of anyone tipping pounds of them into a pipe and thinking 'oh that'll really be effective at ripping some poor sod to pieces.'

    Tipton nail bomb could have hit hundreds

    A one-hour delay to traditional Friday prayers saved hundreds of people from a nail bomb blast at a Black Country mosque.

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/crime/2013/07/13/tipton-nail-bomb-could-have-hit-hundreds/

    These people(or person) who did this are complete Whack-job(s)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    I see what you mean, Mr Dancer.

    I can't just reply LOL - its 23 characters too short < when I checked at this point...

    What a very strange posting rule to force a minimum length at this random character number.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314
    edited July 2013
    Yes kicking No's ass in the Cyberwars, and that's in spite of the SNP.

    'Why the online chat is pro-independence...but not because of SNP

    Three-quarters of those chatting about independence online plan to vote Yes, but not because of the SNP, a new analysis of millions of internet sources shows.
    Research by social media monitoring firm Branchwatch found most supporters were keen to distance themselves from politicians.
    Gareth Ham, head of political analysis at the company, said: "Campaigners in favour of independence are quick to note that their decision to vote for independence is in spite of the SNP or that the SNP is irrelevant to their choice."
    Yes Scotland, the pro-independence campaign group, reflected the need being seen online for a "non-party political campaign", he said.
    Brandwatch, which also monitored the online conversations during the last US presidential election said its research could not predict how people would vote but could reveal what was being discussed online.'

    http://tinyurl.com/nm7d9hl

    http://www.brandwatch.com/scottishindependencereferendum/
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tykejohnno

    Must have been predators and predistribution that killed Ed's date nights.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    Must have been predators and predistribution that killed Ed's date nights.

    Did anyone ever adequately explain what *predistribution* was?

    It's such a wonky intellectual phrase like neo-classical thingy theory or post-bureaucratic age that either causes people to nod sagely or rub their chins in the hope they look like they understand when they haven't a clue.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Wow - 9.91 in the semi-finals of the trials of the 100m. GB has a contender for sprint medals at the highest level again.
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    H&S going a bit far? A life jacket when fishing?
    Herts Fire Control ‏@HertsFRSControl 52s
    Always wear a buoyancy aid or lifejacket for activities on the water or at the water’s edge (such as when boating or fishing). #watersafety
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    taffys said:

    'The problem with Dave going on about trade unions as if they are evil is that it may not play very well with the millions of trade union members whose votes he needs.'

    Is Dave going on about trade unions though? he's surely going on about a very small select band of trade union leaders.

    Presumably those members of Red Len's union who vote tory don't like Len much either.

    And if the end result is that union members have to opt into the Labour party, surely that option can be widened to include a choice of political parties?

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Plato said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    Must have been predators and predistribution that killed Ed's date nights.

    Did anyone ever adequately explain what *predistribution* was?

    It's such a wonky intellectual phrase like neo-classical thingy theory or post-bureaucratic age that either causes people to nod sagely or rub their chins in the hope they look like they understand when they haven't a clue.
    From what I understand it means employers will pay people a non-productivity based pay increase. This will then take people out of certain benefit entitlements and allegedly cut government spending. By a happy coincidence this would also mean people pay more tax and there's no inkling that the benefit savings would be given back, so the politicos end up getting loads more pork in the barrel at everybody else's expense.

    It's a con. As we have seen this week the LD policy of just taking the low paid out of tax is more effective, as inequality has narrowed for the first time in quite a while.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Plato said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    Must have been predators and predistribution that killed Ed's date nights.

    Did anyone ever adequately explain what *predistribution* was?

    It's such a wonky intellectual phrase like neo-classical thingy theory or post-bureaucratic age that either causes people to nod sagely or rub their chins in the hope they look like they understand when they haven't a clue.
    Low-paid job, but the government tops your income up with in-work benefits: Redistribution.
    Government does something to make your job less low-paid in the first place, like only giving government contracts to companies that pay more: Predistribution.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Why is HMG getting in the way in the first place? Surely just tax the lowest paid less and we don't need any of this messing about with HMG intervention re gov contracts.

    It sounds like tax credits dressed up in another guise as HMG paying more at source for public sector employees and their subcontracted employers. What about everyone not on the State's payroll? that's most of the workforce.

    Plato said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    Must have been predators and predistribution that killed Ed's date nights.

    Did anyone ever adequately explain what *predistribution* was?

    It's such a wonky intellectual phrase like neo-classical thingy theory or post-bureaucratic age that either causes people to nod sagely or rub their chins in the hope they look like they understand when they haven't a clue.
    Low-paid job, but the government tops your income up with in-work benefits: Redistribution.
    Government does something to make your job less low-paid in the first place, like only giving government contracts to companies that pay more: Predistribution.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    '
    "only giving contracts to companies that pay more" How any one could not see the problem with that one beats me..How much do we pay them to come up wiyth this stuff.So a company that pays more is to be preferred to a company that does not but might make a better product at a cheaper price and could possibly employ more people, over a company that could be set up almost overnight, pay silly money get the contract and then collapse because its prices in the open market are totally distorted .. yep .. that should work..In my view.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    On the I Never Knew That stakes - this about Alan Whicker is rather good.


    " During the Second World War he joined the Army and was commissioned into the Devonshire Regiment. Later transferred to the Film and Photo Section with the 8th Army, he filmed assault landings in North Africa, Sicily and mainland Italy. Before demob in 1946 he reached the rank of major and was mentioned in dispatches.

    In 2004 Whicker relived this time in a television series, Whicker’s War. He recalled how driving into Milan he stumbled on the offices of the German SS. The Germans were only willing to sur- render to an Allied officer, and Whicker took the men into custody along with a large trunk full of banknotes, the war chest of the SS in Italy. He also tracked down the British spy, John Amery, who was in a Milan jail, and handed him over to the military police. He filmed the corpses of the deposed Italian dictator, Benito Mussolini, and his mistress, Clara Petacci, hanging upside down outside a petrol station.

    ...In 1967 he was a member of the consortium that set up Yorkshire Television and made a successful bid during the ITV franchise round. He was the company’s largest shareholder...he was offered the role in Around the World that was taken on finally by Michael Palin..." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/obituaries/article3815147.ece
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    Charles said:


    Is 1/2 to lose deposit really a mug bet?

    I cant find the bet on the website (who can find anything on their website) but if it is on Crowe to lose a deposit then it is a mug bet because you'll be tying money up only to get it back without interest in 2 years' time. He wont stand himself.
    fair point
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    Charles said:

    There's little doubt that EdM's numbers of all kinds amongst LAB voters are some way below Dave's.

    Yet he is doing much better with 2010 LD voters who will have a huge impact on the GE2015 outcome.

    Charles said:

    Change in net since start of 2013:

    Cameron: -1
    Miliband: -9

    Miliband's lead has gone from "clearly ahead" to "Margin of Error"

    Source?

    The latest Ipsos-MORI "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" ratings have Dave at a net minus 24% Ed at minus 21%



    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    In my view .... perchance I may have noted this declaration previously but :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister

    I sincerely hope so - and given his leadership ratings, he doesn't have a cat in Hell's chance. Even his own party voters think he's a poor performer. Given he's now 3yrs into the job, he's not making much of an impact as a leader of anything.
    More to the point, Plato's original post referred to Miliband's *own party voters. IIRC (haven't got a source to hand) Cameron does very well among Tory supporters, while Miliband's support is much more lukewarm.

    Of course you can argue that Cameron needs to do better in non-Tory supporters to stand a chance of winning...or that Miliband's limited support suggests Labour's lead is soft...

    Sometimes I feel like a barrister...argue any case... ;-)
    So will you admit that, despite your sharp reply, Plato was actually right?
    The fact that reducing your party to it's core means you poll better among that core is not normally regarded as a positive.

    He's been doing well among Tories for a long time, even when the support was significantly higher than today
    Farage is doing 20% better among UKIP voters than Cameron is among Tories, so what?

    Farage on 112% among UKIP voters?

    I thought creative electioneering was Labour's speciality?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Plato said:

    john_zims said:

    @Tykejohnno

    Must have been predators and predistribution that killed Ed's date nights.

    Did anyone ever adequately explain what *predistribution* was?

    It's such a wonky intellectual phrase like neo-classical thingy theory or post-bureaucratic age that either causes people to nod sagely or rub their chins in the hope they look like they understand when they haven't a clue.
    Low-paid job, but the government tops your income up with in-work benefits: Redistribution.
    Government does something to make your job less low-paid in the first place, like only giving government contracts to companies that pay more: Predistribution.
    Assuming, though, that the companies will want the same absolute return (for simplicity), then they will charge more in order to offset the cost of the higher wages + highers NICs.

    So the government pays more - and ends up giving away all the saving.

    But has to spend a bunch on administration and, presumably, makes said companies less competitive when bidding for contracts from other people who are not prepared to pay more to ensure higher wages.

    Overall, therefore, the country is worse off
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This took me a second to get it ;^ )

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPDxBoCCMAEqxO3.jpg:large
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2013
    Body is required.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Time for Crow to bring back the Popular Front...

    Drivel, mostly, I'm sure but I'm sure EdM would prefer not to attack anyone on his political left.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Grandiose said:

    Time for Crow to bring back the Popular Front...

    Drivel, mostly, I'm sure but I'm sure EdM would prefer not to attack anyone on his political left.

    Good old Bob, let's wish him well on his new venture.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    Grandiose said:

    Time for Crow to bring back the Popular Front...

    Drivel, mostly, I'm sure but I'm sure EdM would prefer not to attack anyone on his political left.

    Good old Bob, let's wish him well on his new venture.
    Wonder who will be a defining figure in deciding who leads this new political movement, Citizen Crow? :)

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,133

    Cable is absolutely no match for Osborne.Cable is now beginning to act like an old duffer, and he seems to have been in a trance for three years

    He has always looked like an old duffer
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    MG That was merely an opinion of course
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,133

    H&S going a bit far? A life jacket when fishing?
    Herts Fire Control ‏@HertsFRSControl 52s
    Always wear a buoyancy aid or lifejacket for activities on the water or at the water’s edge (such as when boating or fishing). #watersafety

    lots of anglers fall in and drown , so seems sensible
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Just reading an article about the bull runners and this comment made me smile - it sums up the difference between our cultures. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article3815950.ece

    "I've done it - admittedly in the most cowardly way, leaping out of the encierro as soon as the first steer came in sight (most injuries not caused by the bulls destined for the ring but by the steers that go first and which they follow). It is life affirming and terrifying. It is brilliant that it is allowed to continue (it wouldn't be in Britain where we've cancelled the not quite so scary running down a hill after a cheese). You can call them morons, you can call them thrill-seekers, you can call them brave (there's a bit of truth in all), but leave them to it. The last thing the world needs is more nanny know-it-alls."
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    MG Some other anglers would pull them out and put them in the keep net for the weigh in, fanatics those boys
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Citizen Sane @citizen_sane
    @JohnRentoul Three Freudians go into a bar and the barman says "Can I see some id?"
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013

    Grandiose said:

    Time for Crow to bring back the Popular Front...

    Drivel, mostly, I'm sure but I'm sure EdM would prefer not to attack anyone on his political left.

    Good old Bob, let's wish him well on his new venture.
    Good afternoon, Mr. Brooke.

    We need to do more than wish Mr. Crow well. We need to actively support his New Workers Party.

    If established, it would be a good place to park the votes of those pesky 2010 Lib Dem deserters.

    We could then return to making sound predictions of a Tory majority without rude, evidence based interventions from Mr. Smithson and tim.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,133

    MG That was merely an opinion of course

    An accurate opinion though Richard
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Guido posted this rater interesting graph over on his blog:

    http://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/mps-v-ave-wages.jpg
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    That hour delay was lucky.

    Interestingly, this post was initially 50 characters too short. I don't think I've had that message from Vanilla before.

    Gone are the days of 'first'. Perhaps a more formal announcement of being the first poster on a thread is now required!
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