To my mind, there's a bigger question than who wins the presidency. It's whether America can stop the rot.
America being usurped by China and/or others is not inevitable. China itself faces significant problems. But America is being thrust forwards by inertia, not leadership. And four or eight years of Trump or Clinton won't fix this. Neither have the capability of bringing the country together.
I doubt their broken political system will allow such a leader to reach a position where they could do any good. Their political system is utterly broken, and the last system you would choose if you wanted real democracy.
Having said all that, I have little doubt that Trump would accelerate the rot. As such, Clinton is the best choice for America. Which in itself is a symbol of their malaise.
The population of China is over 4 times the population of the US. America being usurped by China and/or others is inevitable.
All things being equal, the bigger the population, the more powerful the country, but things rarely are equal. China spent 150 years wasting its potential, and may yet do so.
Indeed. China also faces problems, some of them structural, some of them cultural.
The UK became a world power by innovating and creating new industries. The US did the same, embracing change and using their massive resources to accelerate it.
Russia did not innovate as much, and never managed to approach the US in non-military power. China is not innovating much: they are in the perfect place to produce innovative, disruptive industries but they're still mostly coming from the US and the west.
Take SpaceX as an example. There is no reason China could not have tried to produce a disruptive reusable launcher. Instead, they just copied and improved on what the Russians had done. They've probably spent much more on their program, arguably for less.
Copying and incremental improvements can only get you so far.
Yes, but when you have four times the population, you only need half the income per capita to have twice the GDP - and reaching half the per capita income level is easy with other people's technology. By contrast, the Soviets only had equivalence in population (and political and economic systems that held them back, plus a disproportionate allocation to the military), and Japan - also seen (wrongly) as a challenger nation in the 1980s - only had half the population and one which even then had structural problems stored up for the future.
China overtaking the US now is as inevitable as the US overtaking Britain was in about the 1870s.
Can't see why. He's a stroke maker who has appeared shackled batting higher. I'd move Duckett down to 4, probably replacing Ballance (who must be nearing the last chance saloon), and bring in Hameed to open.
Note, Moeen has already survived five reviews. Riding your luck is fine in the middle order, but not at the top of the innings.
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
I love unintended irony.
Don't be patronising David, you're better than that.
My point was a betting one. All my best bets have been the ones where I stripped out my desires and wants. Bet from the head, not the heart.
"Bet from the head not the heart" is sound advice. If anything, I tend to overcompensate.
But I'm sorry; to say "Be careful what you look for" at the same time as posting "Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls" does at the least suggest selective vision.
FWIW, the better comparison would be with GE2015, when the Tories outperformed all the polling but one firm (ICM?) consistently gave them leads of 3-6, which while still short, looked at the time like a methodological error. In fact, they were closest to being on the ball.
However, in that election, the subsidiary data suggested that there might be something wrong with the top line; in this one, it reinforces the impression that they're in synch.
Also ICM was and is a very good pollster with an excellent track record, which is definitely not true of the LA Times or Rasmussen.
It's a pity that ICM didn't poll Brexit in the last week. I expect they'd have come close.
ICM basically bottled it.
No they didn't. They had exclusivity with a campaign group.
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
To my mind, there's a bigger question than who wins the presidency. It's whether America can stop the rot.
There are big problems in the US at the moment. Without getting all SeanT over this, it's still the greatest country in the world, but other countries are yapping at its heels, wanting its place.
The problem is that Americans cannot agree on what the problems are, yet alone the solutions. They just have a nagging feeling that their rightful position is being threatened.
America being usurped by China and/or others is not inevitable. China itself faces significant problems. But America is being thrust forwards by inertia, not leadership. And four or eight years of Trump or Clinton won't fix this. Neither have the capability of bringing the country together.
I doubt their broken political system will allow such a leader to reach a position where they could do any good. Their political system is utterly broken, and the last system you would choose if you wanted real democracy.
Having said all that, I have little doubt that Trump would accelerate the rot. As such, Clinton is the best choice for America. Which in itself is a symbol of their malaise.
The population of China is over 4 times the population of the US. America being usurped by China and/or others is inevitable.
Not an historian are you.
Nothing, on a geopolitical level, is inevitable.
OK, nothing's inevitable. China could break up or Hillary could do her American Hemispheric version of the EU or whatever. But it's highly likely.
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
I'm tempted to put a small bet on trump. Clinton is the likely winner but because of the volatility and unpredictability trump certainly has a good chance. Trump at 6/1 is ok value
Doesn't it become very difficult to estimate what is good value beyond a certain point?
538's three models are currently showing Trump's chances at 12-15%, which is smaller than the betting markets imply. I wouldn't have much faith in the numerical accuracy of those models, but I'd have even less faith in a gut feeling that the figure should be 5 or 10 percent higher.
I have this idea that people like to vote for the winner where the winner is generally popular. The reverse is that where both are unpopular, a significant proportion come polling day either don't vote - or else feel liberated to vote for the one who they think won't win, because they really don't want to be giving the winner their personal mandate. That way they can say "I told yer!"
Trump really should be dead in the water. Floating, lifeless. And yet...he's against Hillary. She gives no good reason to vote for her. If on the day just a few % think "Oh, sod it..." and vote for Trump to disown having anything to do with the President for the next four years, then it could be closer than we expect.
Also, you are betting on opinion polling of two deeply unloved candidates being right. Is it a polling difficulty specific to this situation? Netanyahu v Herzog? EU v Brexit? Will we be adding Clinton v Trump to that list of contests providing unlikely winners?
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
I'm tempted to put a small bet on trump. Clinton is the likely winner but because of the volatility and unpredictability trump certainly has a good chance. Trump at 6/1 is ok value
Unfortunately he is only at 4-1 which isnt worth it alas. Seems the bookies, stung by Brexit and Leicester are being cautious.
You can get 9/2 pretty generally and 5/1 on the exchanges. Why would anyone take 4/1?
For consistent winners, betfair commission rises from 5% to 20%. Then from 20% to 50%.
Then 60%.
At some point it makes more sense to bet with bookmakers at lower odds, if they'll take your bets.
Not a dilemma I've ever had to struggle with, unfortunately.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
The middle bit of the South of Scotland has managed to get more stupid somehow than DCT already was.
May as well be renamed "Leftovers"
New boundaries good for Lib Dems in NE Fife and especially Edinburgh West . Edinburgh South a 3 way marginal which probably favours Labour with tactical Unionist votes , Conservatives hurt in D and G but perhaps still favourites . Berwickshire Roxburgh and Berwickshire their best bet .
Berwickshire is a nailed on Tory gain barring a Lib Dem Lazarus impression.
Hopefully not , a Tory free country would be nice.
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
As a kid, my dentist was in Eastwood. Always used to get a toy from Woolworths after each visit. It's the only thing that made the grim experience acceptable...
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Despite our many and varied disagreements: good luck.
In some ways I admire people who put themselves forwards for political office, at whatever level, and whatever party. There's no way I'd put myself through it.
It does perplex me, as such harsh rates will only drive away success (and perhaps prolific) gamblers, but winning/losing doesn't cost Betfair anything, as long as money is matched they make profit, so why put people off with high rates?
To my mind, there's a bigger question than who wins the presidency. It's whether America can stop the rot.
There are big problems in the US at the moment. Without getting all SeanT over this, it's still the greatest country in the world, but other countries are yapping at its heels, wanting its place.
The problem is that Americans cannot agree on what the problems are, yet alone the solutions. They just have a nagging feeling that their rightful position is being threatened.
America being usurped by China and/or others is not inevitable. China itself faces significant problems. But America is being thrust forwards by inertia, not leadership. And four or eight years of Trump or Clinton won't fix this. Neither have the capability of bringing the country together.
I doubt their broken political system will allow such a leader to reach a position where they could do any good. Their political system is utterly broken, and the last system you would choose if you wanted real democracy.
Having said all that, I have little doubt that Trump would accelerate the rot. As such, Clinton is the best choice for America. Which in itself is a symbol of their malaise.
As an interested outsider I think that the gerrymandering of the voting system has a lot to do with it. There are just far too many safe seats in Congress. This results in the threat always coming from your left for Dems and your right for the GOP. It makes moderates vulnerable, it makes bipartisanship (otherwise known as betrayal) impossible and it forces even sensible politicians to ramp up the rhetoric to 11.
This has progressively made the country ungovernable and deeply divided. It also means the choices for President tend to play to the base of their party rather than reaching out. Clinton tried to run a pretty centralist campaign and it meant that she could not shake off someone as daft as Bernie for months. Trump didn't and that is one of the reasons he is going to lose.
We have the same problem here to some extent. Safe seats are fundamentally undemocratic and destabilising.
We suffer from a similar problem - an electoral system that makes every GE pretty much a choice between the Tories and Labour coupled with the fact that both parties have their leaders chosen by party members who are several degrees more to the left/right of their respective supporters never mind the country at large.
May dodged a bullet not having to be voted in by the members but the next GE could easily have ended up a choice between Leadsom and Corbyn. Hardly much better than the America choice.
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
"You see there are two kinds of people in this world my friend..."
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
'He's good, he's baaad, he ain't ugly.'
As a child I grew up watching only (spaghetti) Westerns and sci-fi.
It was my father's way of ensuring I had high standards of moral hygiene. Pains me to see Clint Eastwood on team Trump. Ditto Mickey Donovan.
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
Eastwood is, of course, best known as the place where the Midland Railway (in the form of the Midland Counties Railway) was formed, at the Sun Inn.
It is therefore birthplace of the best railway in the world. They then had the common sense to move over the border to Derbyshire.
The keen-eyed amongst you will notice that I was retained as engineer, despite having died seven years earlier. Someone missed a 'Jr' off wiki, something that's common on other websites. The family had too many Williams and Josias' in it.
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
I love unintended irony.
Don't be patronising David, you're better than that.
My point was a betting one. All my best bets have been the ones where I stripped out my desires and wants. Bet from the head, not the heart.
"Bet from the head not the heart" is sound advice. If anything, I tend to overcompensate.
But I'm sorry; to say "Be careful what you look for" at the same time as posting "Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls" does at the least suggest selective vision.
FWIW, the better comparison would be with GE2015, when the Tories outperformed all the polling but one firm (ICM?) consistently gave them leads of 3-6, which while still short, looked at the time like a methodological error. In fact, they were closest to being on the ball.
However, in that election, the subsidiary data suggested that there might be something wrong with the top line; in this one, it reinforces the impression that they're in synch.
Also ICM was and is a very good pollster with an excellent track record, which is definitely not true of the LA Times or Rasmussen.
It also seems that our posters make huge efforts to rectify problems with their methodology whereas a number of US pollsters know their results are skewed but seem happy to continue in the game fashion as long as they produce a result they like.
Thanks for the good wishes from all sides - much appreciated.
I genuinely, sincerely, have no idea who will be standing where on what boundaries in 2020, if we haven't been vaporised by President Trump in the meantime. All I can really say is that Labour politics remains in my bloodstream and I like to keep options open. Life is more fun that way than settling down to watch daytime TV...
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
'He's good, he's baaad, he ain't ugly.'
As a child I grew up watching only (spaghetti) Westerns and sci-fi.
It was my father's way of ensuring I had high standards of moral hygiene. Pains me to see Clint Eastwood on team Trump. Ditto Mickey Donovan.
Well vote for Clinton and get a free blowjob from Madonna then.
Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls.
Be careful what you look for.
I love unintended irony.
Don't be patronising David, you're better than that.
My point was a betting one. All my best bets have been the ones where I stripped out my desires and wants. Bet from the head, not the heart.
"Bet from the head not the heart" is sound advice. If anything, I tend to overcompensate.
But I'm sorry; to say "Be careful what you look for" at the same time as posting "Trump is actually ahead or tied in three of the latest polls" does at the least suggest selective vision.
FWIW, the better comparison would be with GE2015, when the Tories outperformed all the polling but one firm (ICM?) consistently gave them leads of 3-6, which while still short, looked at the time like a methodological error. In fact, they were closest to being on the ball.
However, in that election, the subsidiary data suggested that there might be something wrong with the top line; in this one, it reinforces the impression that they're in synch.
Also ICM was and is a very good pollster with an excellent track record, which is definitely not true of the LA Times or Rasmussen.
It also seems that our posters make huge efforts to rectify problems with their methodology whereas a number of US pollsters know their results are skewed but seem happy to continue in the game fashion as long as they produce a result they like.
The lack of an American Polling Council is becoming a real issue now.
Say what you like about UK pollsters but they will take the time to answer people's questions about their polls
OGH loves to show the columns of LibDem wins and Tory by-election losses of councillors showing that the Tories are doomed, doomed I tell yer... But is there anywhere a similar collected list of councillor defections? Are the Tories still pretty much neutral in numbers if you count in defections from UKIP, for example? (I realise that you would have to be very, very sad to trawl through local papers to keep tabs on such things, but...well, if there are going to be such sad people, they are probably going to be known to someone here!)
Also, have the Tories actually lost any councils to NOC (or to any other parties) as the result of the recent by-election losses?
To my mind, there's a bigger question than who wins the presidency. It's whether America can stop the rot.
There are big problems in the US at the moment. Without getting all SeanT over this, it's still the greatest country in the world, but other countries are yapping at its heels, wanting its place.
The problem is that Americans cannot agree on what the problems are, yet alone the solutions. They just have a nagging feeling that their rightful position is being threatened.
America being usurped by China and/or others is not inevitable. China itself faces significant problems. But America is being thrust forwards by inertia, not leadership. And four or eight years of Trump or Clinton won't fix this. Neither have the capability of bringing the country together.
I doubt their broken political system will allow such a leader to reach a position where they could do any good. Their political system is utterly broken, and the last system you would choose if you wanted real democracy.
Having said all that, I have little doubt that Trump would accelerate the rot. As such, Clinton is the best choice for America. Which in itself is a symbol of their malaise.
I don't think America can stop the rot. Its hegemony has been in decline for decades.
We are looking at the flipside of globalisation, where the rich look more like each other whether in London, California, Shanghai and Mumbai, and the mob look like each other too, whether in Ohio or Kyiv.
And the mob in Workington, West Virginia, Wroclaw and Vladivostok have observed that the rich in those places care only about the rich in each others places, and not a fig for the rest; and are starting to vote accordingly.
The rich (such as Trump or Farage) are very good at pitting the steelworkers of Ohio against those of China, the builders of Essex vs those of Poland. It is when the workers realise that they have more in common with each other than they do with their masters...
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
'He's good, he's baaad, he ain't ugly.'
As a child I grew up watching only (spaghetti) Westerns and sci-fi.
It was my father's way of ensuring I had high standards of moral hygiene. Pains me to see Clint Eastwood on team Trump. Ditto Mickey Donovan.
Well vote for Clinton and get a free blowjob from Madonna then.
I've always loved Madonna. I think my biggest geek out was when she did a song that sampled ABBA's Gimme Gimme Gimme A Man After Midnight.
Perhaps by the weekend he will have become a Lib Dem.
In a district where I was active there was a councillor who left Labour to join the Tories. Then he switched back again. The local Liberal Party (it was a while ago) agreed to refuse his application should he apply!
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
Not seen them, just a lot of headlines about Murray's seat disappearing. I am pretty confident that there will be more Scottish Tory MPs in the next Parliament than there is in this one.
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
Eastwood is, of course, best known as the place where the Midland Railway (in the form of the Midland Counties Railway) was formed, at the Sun Inn.
It is therefore birthplace of the best railway in the world. They then had the common sense to move over the border to Derbyshire.
The keen-eyed amongst you will notice that I was retained as engineer, despite having died seven years earlier. Someone missed a 'Jr' off wiki, something that's common on other websites. The family had too many Williams and Josias' in it.
I think a certain Mr D H Lawrence from Victoria Street might be Eastwood Top Trumps....
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
Eastwood is, of course, best known as the place where the Midland Railway (in the form of the Midland Counties Railway) was formed, at the Sun Inn.
It is therefore birthplace of the best railway in the world. They then had the common sense to move over the border to Derbyshire.
The keen-eyed amongst you will notice that I was retained as engineer, despite having died seven years earlier. Someone missed a 'Jr' off wiki, something that's common on other websites. The family had too many Williams and Josias' in it.
I think a certain Mr D H Lawrence from Victoria Street might be Eastwood Top Trumps....
More people travel on what was the Midand Railway every day than read his books.
If you really want to understand how money corrupts the political system, last night had the story up in lights.
Hilary, despite being in the Whitehouse during a totally scandal hit 8 years, despite being the author of the failed healthcare reforms of the late 90's, despite a long history of proven dishonesty, despite Benghazi, the Clinton foundation, leaked emails and the lasting smell of Whitewater - is somehow the best candidate democrat money can buy.
And she's up against a bull headed know nothing businessman with a habit in young women, a loose tongue, sexual encounters of a nefarious nature and the policy experience of a two year old.
What's worse is that the two year old has the better policies and the dishonest machine politician looks clean by comparison to her odd ball opponent. The world's on its head.
Neither of them are even great speakers, at least Obama had rhetorical flair.
(As an allegory - spell check just tried to correct Whitehouse to Whorehouse!)
I think you have to be a certain sort of individual to willingly put yourself up for the vilification and personal smears and outright lies that comes with the job these days. Politics is no longer a civil place for most people and the consequence is that we get the politicians we do. The print media must take a large portion of the blame, legitimate criticism of policy or wrongdoing has spilled over into wholesale abuse.
OGH loves to show the columns of LibDem wins and Tory by-election losses of councillors showing that the Tories are doomed, doomed I tell yer... But is there anywhere a similar collected list of councillor defections? Are the Tories still pretty much neutral in numbers if you count in defections from UKIP, for example? (I realise that you would have to be very, very sad to trawl through local papers to keep tabs on such things, but...well, if there are going to be such sad people, they are probably going to be known to someone here!)
Also, have the Tories actually lost any councils to NOC (or to any other parties) as the result of the recent by-election losses?
Suffolk has gone to NOC following a Conservative by election loss .
The Alien vs Predator contest has come to life in America, and it looks likely that Alien will win.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
The Alien vs Predator contest has come to life in America, and it looks likely that Alien will win.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
AIUI, the US was hardly innocent in the build-up to the crisis.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
I thought for a moment Nick was pitching for leadership of Scottish Labour like an unfortunate previous incumbent of Eastwood. Different geography and different politics, no doubt.
Mr. T, not just print media. Consider broadcast interviews, which are frequently about scalp-hunting. Any honest disagreement is a split. And then there's the emotive 'I want it now' tendency (exemplified by consternation with the Coalition for not having a magic wand that could mystically teleport workers in the middle of the Libyan desert to instantaneous safety).
If policies were scrutinised as much as politicians we would be far better governed.
To my mind, there's a bigger question than who wins the presidency. It's whether America can stop the rot.
There are big problems in the US at the moment. Without getting all SeanT over this, it's still the greatest country in the world, but other countries are yapping at its heels, wanting its place.
The problem is that Americans cannot agree on what the problems are, yet alone the solutions. They just have a nagging feeling that their rightful position is being threatened.
America being usurped by China and/or others is not inevitable. China itself faces significant problems. But America is being thrust forwards by inertia, not leadership. And four or eight years of Trump or Clinton won't fix this. Neither have the capability of bringing the country together.
I doubt their broken political system will allow such a leader to reach a position where they could do any good. Their political system is utterly broken, and the last system you would choose if you wanted real democracy.
Having said all that, I have little doubt that Trump would accelerate the rot. As such, Clinton is the best choice for America. Which in itself is a symbol of their malaise.
I don't think America can stop the rot. Its hegemony has been in decline for decades.
We are looking at the flipside of globalisation, where the rich look more like each other whether in London, California, Shanghai and Mumbai, and the mob look like each other too, whether in Ohio or Kyiv.
And the mob in Workington, West Virginia, Wroclaw and Vladivostok have observed that the rich in those places care only about the rich in each others places, and not a fig for the rest; and are starting to vote accordingly.
When in history was it ever really any different? It is getting worse not better with globalisation and I don't criticise those left behind for being angry behind but I do question what they see as the solution (Brexit and Trump).
OGH loves to show the columns of LibDem wins and Tory by-election losses of councillors showing that the Tories are doomed, doomed I tell yer... But is there anywhere a similar collected list of councillor defections? Are the Tories still pretty much neutral in numbers if you count in defections from UKIP, for example? (I realise that you would have to be very, very sad to trawl through local papers to keep tabs on such things, but...well, if there are going to be such sad people, they are probably going to be known to someone here!)
Also, have the Tories actually lost any councils to NOC (or to any other parties) as the result of the recent by-election losses?
Suffolk has gone to NOC following a Conservative by election loss .
The Alien vs Predator contest has come to life in America, and it looks likely that Alien will win.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
You could argue that the Cuban missile crisis showed JFK as an appeaser, but I call it realpolitik.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
The constituency part of the last Holyrood elections showed supporters of Unionists parties very willing to vote tactically against the SNP. Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems each won a seat off the SNP in Edinburgh on that basis.
The Alien vs Predator contest has come to life in America, and it looks likely that Alien will win.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
You could argue that the Cuban missile crisis showed JFK as an appeaser, but I call it realpolitik.
One of the problems with American politics of the day was the absurd aggressiveness of its foreign policy, borne of an unexpected and unprepared for global dominance post-1945. That the Kennedy administration's handling of the Cuban missile question - a naval blockade, the consideration until the last minute of strikes against Cuba, the refusal to accept equivalence between the US and USSR - could in any way be considered 'appeasement' is very telling. They were continually prepared to countenance global war in defence of that dominance and the fact that others were even more gung-ho doesn't change that.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
The constituency part of the last Holyrood elections showed supporters of Unionists parties very willing to vote tactically against the SNP. Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems each won a seat off the SNP in Edinburgh on that basis.
Ruth won her seat based on the vanity candidacy of the green candidate.
Mr. Indigo, some do but keep it quiet. I believe Barbara Windsor and Mick Jagger are both Conservative-supporters, but they don't bang on about it.
Reminds me of seeing one of those top 100 lists which included Kenny Everett[sp] appearing at the conference. One talking head clown said he'd felt betrayed as if Everett had come out 'but as a Tory' and that he'd assumed Everett was 'on your side'.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
The constituency part of the last Holyrood elections showed supporters of Unionists parties very willing to vote tactically against the SNP. Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems each won a seat off the SNP in Edinburgh on that basis.
Ruth won her seat based on the vanity candidacy of the green candidate.
and being an excellent candidate that received more votes than the other challengers.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
The Borders should hold their own referendum on staying in the Uk if Scotland votes for Sindy in the future .
The Sun getting something right. The world is indeed a strange place!
The thing is I said this to people who were dumping on The Sun last night, it wasn't the Sun's pictures, they were taken by Getty and sold as pictures of new arrived child migrants.
If you really want to understand how money corrupts the political system, last night had the story up in lights.
Hilary, despite being in the Whitehouse during a totally scandal hit 8 years, despite being the author of the failed healthcare reforms of the late 90's, despite a long history of proven dishonesty, despite Benghazi, the Clinton foundation, leaked emails and the lasting smell of Whitewater - is somehow the best candidate democrat money can buy.
And she's up against a bull headed know nothing businessman with a habit in young women, a loose tongue, sexual encounters of a nefarious nature and the policy experience of a two year old.
What's worse is that the two year old has the better policies and the dishonest machine politician looks clean by comparison to her odd ball opponent. The world's on its head.
Neither of them are even great speakers, at least Obama had rhetorical flair.
(As an allegory - spell check just tried to correct Whitehouse to Whorehouse!)
If you have been around the blocks as long as the Clintons have, you tend to acquire skeletons. That might of itself disqualify Mrs Clinton in the mind of voters but I don't think she is egregiously dishonest. Compared with the Iran Contra affair, for example, which did Ronald Reagan no harm, Clinton's sleaziness is mediocre.
Hillary Clinton's real failing as a politician is that she is totally incapable of faking sincerity. Obama can; her husband is a master of the art; Ronald Reagan could act; George W (but not his father) had a seemingly home-spun charm.
The Alien vs Predator contest has come to life in America, and it looks likely that Alien will win.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
Really? Suppose it were the 1960 version of him vs Trump this year - how do you think the election would go?
To my mind, there's a bigger question than who wins the presidency. It's whether America can stop the rot.
There are big problems in the US at the moment. Without getting all SeanT over this, it's still the greatest country in the world, but other countries are yapping at its heels, wanting its place.
The problem is that Americans cannot agree on what the problems are, yet alone the solutions. They just have a nagging feeling that their rightful position is being threatened.
America being usurped by China and/or others is not inevitable. China itself faces significant problems. But America is being thrust forwards by inertia, not leadership. And four or eight years of Trump or Clinton won't fix this. Neither have the capability of bringing the country together.
I doubt their broken political system will allow such a leader to reach a position where they could do any good. Their political system is utterly broken, and the last system you would choose if you wanted real democracy.
Having said all that, I have little doubt that Trump would accelerate the rot. As such, Clinton is the best choice for America. Which in itself is a symbol of their malaise.
I don't think America can stop the rot. Its hegemony has been in decline for decades.
We are looking at the flipside of globalisation, where the rich look more like each other whether in London, California, Shanghai and Mumbai, and the mob look like each other too, whether in Ohio or Kyiv.
And the mob in Workington, West Virginia, Wroclaw and Vladivostok have observed that the rich in those places care only about the rich in each others places, and not a fig for the rest; and are starting to vote accordingly.
When in history was it ever really any different? It is getting worse not better with globalisation and I don't criticise those left behind for being angry behind but I do question what they see as the solution (Brexit and Trump).
It is easy to say globalisation has made everything worse, but is this backed by any evidence? It is quite possible that widespread protectionism over the last 30 years would have made things worse.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
I would agree that on 20% of the vote the Conservatives would win 2 Borders seats but the notional results for the new seats at the 2015 GE would give them none .
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
The Borders should hold their own referendum on staying in the Uk if Scotland votes for Sindy in the future .
London should hold their own referendum on staying in the UK after England voted to leave the EU.
'These are my principles. If you don't like them I have others.'
The Alien vs Predator contest has come to life in America, and it looks likely that Alien will win.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
You could argue that the Cuban missile crisis showed JFK as an appeaser, but I call it realpolitik.
One of the problems with American politics of the day was the absurd aggressiveness of its foreign policy, borne of an unexpected and unprepared for global dominance post-1945. That the Kennedy administration's handling of the Cuban missile question - a naval blockade, the consideration until the last minute of strikes against Cuba, the refusal to accept equivalence between the US and USSR - could in any way be considered 'appeasement' is very telling. They were continually prepared to countenance global war in defence of that dominance and the fact that others were even more gung-ho doesn't change that.
I was thinking of the deal. Removing the missiles in Cuba and removing the American missiles in Turkey
By the way, I've settled back in Notts, and I've just been selected as Labour candidate for Eastwood on the County Council - a former Labour stronghold which the LibDems took during a period when Labour locally was having serious personal difficulties. My argument at a personal level will be that having an energetic county councillor who knows the ropes at every level wouldn't be a bad thing.
It's in Broxtowe borough, though just on the edge of my former constituency, so I'm a reasonably familiar figure there and know the town pretty well: I used to live nearby. It's part of the new Broxtowe and Hucknall constituency which Anna Soubry is likely to contest if the boundary changes go through, but for the time being it's part of Gloria de Piero's constituency.
I have no idea how it will turn out, but it'll be good to be back in harness. The County Council is an interesting one politically as Labour won a majoity of 1 last time. First regional BBC TV interview is tomorrow.
Congratulations. Eastwood you say? Will you be standing as the man with no name ?
'He's good, he's baaad, he ain't ugly.'
As a child I grew up watching only (spaghetti) Westerns and sci-fi.
It was my father's way of ensuring I had high standards of moral hygiene. Pains me to see Clint Eastwood on team Trump. Ditto Mickey Donovan.
Well vote for Clinton and get a free blowjob from Madonna then.
I've always loved Madonna. I think my biggest geek out was when she did a song that sampled ABBA's Gimme Gimme Gimme A Man After Midnight.
The Alien vs Predator contest has come to life in America, and it looks likely that Alien will win.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
Really? Suppose it were the 1960 version of him vs Trump this year - how do you think the election would go?
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
The Borders should hold their own referendum on staying in the Uk if Scotland votes for Sindy in the future .
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
The constituency part of the last Holyrood elections showed supporters of Unionists parties very willing to vote tactically against the SNP. Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems each won a seat off the SNP in Edinburgh on that basis.
Ruth won her seat based on the vanity candidacy of the green candidate.
She won because Labour and Lib Dem supporters switched their votes to her, just as Conservatives and Lib Dems voted tactically for the Labour candidate in Edinburgh Southern and as Conservatives and Labour supporters switched to the Lib Dems in Edinburgh Western.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
We back to a Tory "Surge" dream now. You were right to be very cautious David.
The lack of a quality candidate is an issue for the Uk too - look at the Uk - apart from Blair, Major, Cameron and maybe Clegg and Farage we have had a poor crop of prospective PMs.
2020 we could have 2 duffers going head to head potentially.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
The Borders should hold their own referendum on staying in the Uk if Scotland votes for Sindy in the future .
London should hold their own referendum on staying in the UK after England voted to leave the EU.
'These are my principles. If you don't like them I have others.'
You have to wonder if some of the frothers on here can actually tie their shoelaces.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
The Borders should hold their own referendum on staying in the Uk if Scotland votes for Sindy in the future .
I think you misunderstand the nature of Borders Unionism.
Mr. Divvie, highly questionable for EU citizens to have the vote. [I also disagree with 16 and 17 year olds getting it, but that precedent has not been affected by the referendum result whereas EU citizens have].
The lack of a quality candidate is an issue for the Uk too - look at the Uk - apart from Blair, Major, Cameron and maybe Clegg and Farage we have had a poor crop of prospective PMs.
2020 we could have 2 duffers going head to head potentially.
Britain has been remarkably lucky in how often one of the two main candidates has been of PM-quality given how often the other one hasn't. Since 1979, I can only think of 2005 as an occasion when both were or would have been up to the job.
There are just far too many safe seats in Congress.
Talking of which, had a chance to cast your eye over the new Scottish constituencies?
Extinction level events for the Tories & Labour?
That will depend on the polls. Tory strength across the Borders (which is also one of the SNP's weakest areas, in relative terms), should be sufficient to return at least one Tory MP if the Scottish national outcome is something like the high-40s / low-to-mid-20s in current polls. Labour, on the other hand, having gone backwards since 2015 and looking at a horrible result in the local elections next year, further weakening their base and their relevance, will be in a lot more trouble if they can't recover or if the SNP don't decline from present levels.
On 14% of the vote the Conservatives almost had two borders MPs. With 20s they would sweep the South.
That was my impression based on some of the past Holyrood elections but I didn't want to be so firm about it as I've not had chance to look at either the proposed constituencies or the current numbers in detail.
The Borders should hold their own referendum on staying in the Uk if Scotland votes for Sindy in the future .
Whatever happens, the territorial integrity of Scotland is rock-solid. The Tweed-Solway line has defined the border for a thousand years. There is hardly a country in Europe that is as geographically and demographically coherent as Scotland.
Comments
China overtaking the US now is as inevitable as the US overtaking Britain was in about the 1870s.
He's a stroke maker who has appeared shackled batting higher. I'd move Duckett down to 4, probably replacing Ballance (who must be nearing the last chance saloon), and bring in Hameed to open.
Note, Moeen has already survived five reviews. Riding your luck is fine in the middle order, but not at the top of the innings.
FL - 69.3% .. OH 57.8 .. PA 87.4
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
Maybe they think he belongs in the PLP?
http://www.politico.eu/article/why-we-lost-the-brexit-vote-former-uk-prime-minister-david-cameron/
On the face of it, I'd prefer 'it well behoves you'.
FWIW.
Trump really should be dead in the water. Floating, lifeless. And yet...he's against Hillary. She gives no good reason to vote for her. If on the day just a few % think "Oh, sod it..." and vote for Trump to disown having anything to do with the President for the next four years, then it could be closer than we expect.
Also, you are betting on opinion polling of two deeply unloved candidates being right. Is it a polling difficulty specific to this situation? Netanyahu v Herzog? EU v Brexit? Will we be adding Clinton v Trump to that list of contests providing unlikely winners?
Mr. B, it's a king telling his sister that, as well as being her brother he is also her king and "it would behove you well to remember that."
In some ways I admire people who put themselves forwards for political office, at whatever level, and whatever party. There's no way I'd put myself through it.
It does perplex me, as such harsh rates will only drive away success (and perhaps prolific) gamblers, but winning/losing doesn't cost Betfair anything, as long as money is matched they make profit, so why put people off with high rates?
May dodged a bullet not having to be voted in by the members but the next GE could easily have ended up a choice between Leadsom and Corbyn. Hardly much better than the America choice.
Mad as a box of frogs, but congratulations. A thankless task to be sure.
It was my father's way of ensuring I had high standards of moral hygiene. Pains me to see Clint Eastwood on team Trump. Ditto Mickey Donovan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midland_Counties_Railway
It is therefore birthplace of the best railway in the world. They then had the common sense to move over the border to Derbyshire.
The keen-eyed amongst you will notice that I was retained as engineer, despite having died seven years earlier. Someone missed a 'Jr' off wiki, something that's common on other websites. The family had too many Williams and Josias' in it.
It also seems that our posters make huge efforts to rectify problems with their methodology whereas a number of US pollsters know their results are skewed but seem happy to continue in the game fashion as long as they produce a result they like.
I genuinely, sincerely, have no idea who will be standing where on what boundaries in 2020, if we haven't been vaporised by President Trump in the meantime. All I can really say is that Labour politics remains in my bloodstream and I like to keep options open. Life is more fun that way than settling down to watch daytime TV...
Say what you like about UK pollsters but they will take the time to answer people's questions about their polls
Also, have the Tories actually lost any councils to NOC (or to any other parties) as the result of the recent by-election losses?
Clinton 43.8 .. Trump 44.4
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
I think you have to be a certain sort of individual to willingly put yourself up for the vilification and personal smears and outright lies that comes with the job these days. Politics is no longer a civil place for most people and the consequence is that we get the politicians we do. The print media must take a large portion of the blame, legitimate criticism of policy or wrongdoing has spilled over into wholesale abuse.
A machine politician whose claim to fame being that she married Bill. My only problem with her is that she will become a puppet of the administration. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
I looked into the circumstances of the Cuban Missile Crisis and JFK was anything but a puppet. Had he heeded the counselling of many of his advisors (Curtis le May, for example), we might not be here. He definitely wouldn't have been voted in nowadays.
If policies were scrutinised as much as politicians we would be far better governed.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/chris-wallace-debate-trump-clinton-230069?lo=ap_c2
That's a big call!
Mr 40 year old is as reported by the sun a "child" migrant not an interpreter....
http://order-order.com/2016/10/20/no-man-yesterdays-sun-not-interpreter/
Reminds me of seeing one of those top 100 lists which included Kenny Everett[sp] appearing at the conference. One talking head clown said he'd felt betrayed as if Everett had come out 'but as a Tory' and that he'd assumed Everett was 'on your side'.
So if anybody had got it wrong it was Getty.
Hillary Clinton's real failing as a politician is that she is totally incapable of faking sincerity. Obama can; her husband is a master of the art; Ronald Reagan could act; George W (but not his father) had a seemingly home-spun charm.
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/301935-who-won-the-final-debate-clinton-or-trump-pundits
Or start protesting against the electoral college voters to vote the 'right' way
'These are my principles. If you don't like them I have others.'
Can't remember the blasted title though...
Paul Staines (or one of his employees) says the home office says the person in question isn't an interpreter.
That doesn't mean the sun's story is right.
The whole thing is as clear as mud.
2020 we could have 2 duffers going head to head potentially.
Definitely, definitely not.
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/789028032644255744
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/789028634577305600
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/789030740323368960