politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Elections preview
Hanover and Elm Grove on Brighton and Hove (Green Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Greens 23, Con 18, Lab 13 (No Overall Control, Greens short by 5)
HYUFD - Heh Heh. Speaking of Labour, Yvette Cooper visited town today. She impressed & charmed my lady partner. I don't think women are capable of Bullingdon Etonian pomposity.
MickPork - Personally, I would link their pay rise to that of average wages, it might give them an incentive to get the economy growing!
Fair enough but that still leaves expenses, pensions and second homes etcetera.
No matter the volume of bile directed at IPSA today it is still as nothing compared to the fury that has been directed at it by disgruntled MPs since it was set up. Primarily over daring to question their expenses.
antifrank - Indeed, the caricature of most MPs post expenses is of money grabbing charlatans, so rather than changing that image by acting like poor vicars and getting down to constituency work what do MPs do, accept a 10% pay rise at a time the average worker is seeing his pay frozen!
Has it not occurred to MPs that the reason that the idea of a pay rise for MPs is so unpopular is because they don't deserve one?
Are they getting a rise, I thought that a load of dubious expenses were being abolished and pension stuff lost while the overall package stayed the same?
MPs are angry that the change might not go through. So that tells you the answer to that question.
"It was a reminder of the extraordinarily close links that still exist between publishing tycoon and Tory politician. One of Murdoch's long-term projects is what he calls a "revolutionary and profitable" move by his media companies into online education. Gove would be a key figure in any attempt to penetrate the British schools market.
The education secretary meets Murdoch frequently and is an enthusiastic backer of the ideas of Joel Klein, the head of Murdoch's new education division. Within a week of his promotion in 2010, the minister was at dinner with Murdoch, according to officially released details of meetings.
The atmosphere could only have been warm. Gove once sang Murdoch's praises in a 1999 Times column as "the greatest godfather of mischief in print" who possesses "18th-century pamphleteering vigour". He wrote that Murdoch "encourages … free thinking. His newspapers … are driven by public demand and the creativity of chaotic, cock-snooking, individuals."
Murdoch in turn was kind to his former employee. When Gove first arrived at Westminster in 2005 as a backbench MP, the Times topped up his salary with a £60,000-a-year column. His wife still works for the paper.
Murdoch's publishing arm, HarperCollins, also gave Gove a book advance in 2004, when he was first selected for the safe Conservative seat of Surrey Heath. It was for a history of an obscure 18th-century politician, Viscount Bolingbroke.
Puzzlingly, the book was never delivered. HarperCollins refuses to disclose the size of the advance and its size is not specified in Gove's register of financial interests. Asked if his advance should be returned eight years later, HarperCollins says Gove "is still committed to writing a book on Bolingbroke but obviously his ministerial duties come first for now". Gove will not comment."
Bolingbroke is only obscure because he was a traitor. Had he not made the mortal error of judgement of being a Jacobite he may well have outshone Walpole.
There's a need for a quality biography - I'm not aware of one - but it's probably not time critical. If you are keen, though, you could go and by the 5 volume set of his philosophical writings from Amazon
Has it not occurred to MPs that the reason that the idea of a pay rise for MPs is so unpopular is because they don't deserve one?
Are they getting a rise, I thought that a load of dubious expenses were being abolished and pension stuff lost while the overall package stayed the same?
That's true, but not the way it'll be reported or heard by the voters.
Former UK Labour MP Denis MacShane to face charge of false accounting over expenses claims totalling £12,900 http://bbc.in/13PzFZv
IPSA is there for a reason. MPs pay was hardly the main one. (though yes it is clearly tied up in all of the scandal because of how expenses were used)
Hertsmere Pubgoer - True, but now they are hated even more, if tickets were sold for a public flogging of bankers' and MPs, tickets would be sold out within minutes!
I would set MPs pay at £x / person on the electoral roll in their constituency. If they want more money, vote for bigger constituencies. Is the IoW still a single constituency? That person would do quite well.
Hertsmere Pubgoer - True, but now they are hated even more, if tickets were sold for a public flogging of bankers' and MPs, tickets would be sold out within minutes!
Given the predilections of Lib Dems, that could be a win-win scenario for some.
tim posted it a couple of days ago hoping I would be shocked.
I'm not sure he realised that the grand-daughter of Earl Mountbatten was named India in honour of grandad's time as Viceroy of the country which bears her name.
I am sure that if we dig hard enough we will find a forebear of Katie Hopkins holding an office of similar political importance.
How are they expected to have a nice nap with all that hubbub caused by a mass influx of johnny-come-latelies? At least Farage will be vigilant and make sure there are no Bulgarians trying to sneak in.
I would set MPs pay at £x / person on the electoral roll in their constituency. If they want more money, vote for bigger constituencies. Is the IoW still a single constituency? That person would do quite well.
Good luck to the MPs for the Highlands and Islands who this govt decided should have gerrymandered seats due to geographical size
tim posted it a couple of days ago hoping I would be shocked.
I'm not sure he realised that the grand-daughter of Earl Mountbatten was named India in honour of grandad's time as Viceroy of the country which bears her name.
I am sure that if we dig hard enough we will find a forebear of Katie Hopkins holding an office of similar political importance.
'antifrank said: Has it not occurred to MPs that the reason that the idea of a pay rise for MPs is so unpopular is because they don't deserve one?'
MP's had the chance to do what almost every other organisation has had to do,make some cuts to their bloated numbers & increase their productivity but they chose not to.
Alanbrooke - excellent, apparently she failed to fitness test for Sandhurst as she was not fit enough, personally I would send her into battle against the Taliban unarmed, they would run a mile!
tim posted it a couple of days ago hoping I would be shocked.
I'm not sure he realised that the grand-daughter of Earl Mountbatten was named India in honour of grandad's time as Viceroy of the country which bears her name.
I am sure that if we dig hard enough we will find a forebear of Katie Hopkins holding an office of similar political importance.
courtesan ?
Absolutely, Mr. Brooke.
Her daughter's name should be changed forthwith to Venetia.
As I explained to tim, now the hereditaries have been run out of town, political life peers have been relegated to a lower social division than MPs. Like Bulgarian and Romanian fruit pickers, they are paid piece-work for their contributions. No show, no pay.
Would Gordon be submitted to the same strictures.
The rise of the political peers, now making up a dominant portion of the upper chamber, is lamentable. The upper house should be stuffed full of technocrats, not political grandees.
"Bolingbroke is only obscure because he was a traitor. Had he not made the mortal error of judgement of being a Jacobite he may well have outshone Walpole."
Your reservation for Auchentennach is confirmed ....
How are they expected to have a nice nap with all that hubbub caused by a mass influx of johnny-come-latelies? At least Farage will be vigilant and make sure there are no Bulgarians trying to sneak in.
I do not think that we need an upper house at all. Abolish the lot of them.
We would not need a revising chamber if MPs passed laws that were written correctly in the first place. Not that I am convinced that we need new laws anyway. We have far too many already.
Sack the Lords with all their ermine clothed idiocies. Make Mps work longer terms for their payrise. Job done.
As I explained to tim, now the hereditaries have been run out of town, political life peers have been relegated to a lower social division than MPs. Like Bulgarian and Romanian fruit pickers, they are paid piece-work for their contributions. No show, no pay.
Would Gordon be submitted to the same strictures.
The rise of the political peers, now making up a dominant portion of the upper chamber, is lamentable. The upper house should be stuffed full of technocrats, not political grandees.
I don't suppose prp is an option? Sauce for the goose and all that.
How about a zero-hours contract - they are all the rage now. A higher hourly rate for working on legislation and a lower rate for the super-social-worker stuff they do.
I don't suppose prp is an option? Sauce for the goose and all that.
How about a zero-hours contract - they are all the rage now. A higher hourly rate for working on legislation and a lower rate for the super-social-worker stuff they do.
Not sure that Nigel is a very good hooker, unless working the S and M market!
The European parliament paying over the odds to have their president derided is quite amusing, and part of the reason that Nigel gives Rompuy an ear bashing from time to time.
As I explained to tim, now the hereditaries have been run out of town, political life peers have been relegated to a lower social division than MPs. Like Bulgarian and Romanian fruit pickers, they are paid piece-work for their contributions. No show, no pay.
Would Gordon be submitted to the same strictures.
The rise of the political peers, now making up a dominant portion of the upper chamber, is lamentable. The upper house should be stuffed full of technocrats, not political grandees.
We need to signal our disapproval, Rob.
Replacing ermine trim with ferret fur would be a suitable first step.
Good evening. I just came back from a short holiday.
Has anyone from Unite resigned yet for being too inept? Recap.... - the majority of their backed candidates have failed to be selected so far. But in their defence, maybe it's just because their candidates were crap. - so, to get Falkirk for this Karie Murphy, they mysteriously sign up lots of new people hoping no-one would take note.... - this ends with the selection being suspended, the candidate being suspended and their few backed candidates being witchhunted by the opponents all over the local press and online media.....which is not surprising and you can't even fault their opponents (even if one ConHome piece about Vicky Foxcroft souned really silly at first reading. It wasn't signed, maybe because even the writer realized it)
Have anyone tried to put forwards the case that being an officer manager is more working class than being a SpAd?
Meanwhile, Jon Ashworth joins the NEC to replace Tom Watson there.
I also note the rumous of Unite pushing Jim Sheridan over Dougie. I guess we should applaud them for their support of unrepresented minorities: MPs who speak incomprehensible English
Ah, and William Hague called Cathie Jamieson a stupid woman...Tories are anti Scottish and so now Mundell is at risk. All Scottish women will raise at this offence.
why hasn't the SNP already selected a candidate in Falkirk for 2015 GE? And why hasn't Labour picked up a candidate for Dunfermline (Holyrood)? Isn't it better to be ready to benefit for every potential opportunity?
Good evening. I just came back from a short holiday.
Has anyone from Unite resigned yet for being too inept? Recap.... - the majority of their backed candidates have failed to be selected so far. But in their defence, maybe it's just because their candidates were crap. - so, to get Falkirk for this Karie Murphy, they mysteriously sign up lots of new people hoping no-one would take note.... - this ends with the selection being suspended, the candidate being suspended and their few backed candidates being witchhunted by the opponents all over the local press and online media.....which is not surprising and you can't even fault their opponents (even if one ConHome piece about Vicky Foxcroft souned really silly at first reading. It wasn't signed, maybe because even the writer realized it)
Have anyone tried to put forwards the case that being an officer manager is more working class than being a SpAd?
Meanwhile, Jon Ashworth joins the NEC to replace Tom Watson there.
I also note the rumous of Unite pushing Jim Sheridan over Dougie. I guess we should applaud them for their support of unrepresented minorities: MPs who speak incomprehensible English
Ah, and William Hague called Cathie Jamieson a stupid woman...Tories are anti Scottish and so now Mundell is at risk. All Scottish women will raise at this offence.
Did I miss anything else relevant?
I think that's the gist of it - unions nowhere near as devious as the parliamentary party.
why hasn't the SNP already selected a candidate in Falkirk for 2015 GE?
I don't actually have a direct line to SNP HQ Andrea. The 2010 candidate John McNally is a local councillor and I have no idea if he would be chosen again or someone different considered.
As to the why, we are still talking about Eric Joyce. There has been absolutely no sign whatsoever of any amount of shame or pressure having the slightest effect on stopping him clinging on to that job for dear life.
If unexpected things happen I doubt it would be particularly hard to get a campaign going whereas labour might just have one or two small problems with a united and smooth running campaign in Falkirk. Call it a hunch.
West Thornton is Benn's ward. 2 sitting Cllrs deselected there. One has already found a new safe ward which took him. The other is still searching around...
Joe Dromey has been selected in New Cross (Lewisham). A sitting Cllr dumped there but it's not entirely Little Dromey's fault as another new female Cllr has been selected in this ward too along with the surviving male Cllr (the other male Cllr was retiring IIRC).
Royal Mail privatization - given that the EU wants countries in the EU to be able to bid for work in the other countries how much of privatization over the years has been driven by EU directives that the public are never told about?
I was more thinking about having a candidate in place, not becuase of the chance of Joyce resigning, but to have a local figure leading the attacks (especially in the local media) over him and the selection saga rather than an anonymous party spokeperson. In the end, it would have been the top target over Labour anyway along with Dundee West and Ochil.
Labour decided for an AWS in Dunfermline last year. And then I didn't hear anything about them. They are going to use pairings again for 2016 but Dunfermline could have been exempted.
Has it not occurred to MPs that the reason that the idea of a pay rise for MPs is so unpopular is because they don't deserve one?
MPs surrendered any chance of public sympathy when they rejected the boundary changes and reduction in overall numbers of MPs in the House of Commons.
They should have a 10% enforced pay cut rather than a pay rise.
We could then leave it to our newspaper proprietors to compensate the few that are truly worthy of above average recompense.
Peter Lilley suggested that MPs should have a pay cut, proportional to the amount of responsibility they had passed from parliament to other bodies, (EU, quangos etc)
When it emerged that the crucial hot-spot footage wasn't available because the tape was being rewound for the entertainment of TV viewers, he should have been automatically given not out.
why hasn't the SNP already selected a candidate in Falkirk for 2015 GE?
I don't actually have a direct line to SNP HQ Andrea. The 2010 candidate John McNally is a local councillor and I have no idea if he would be chosen again or someone different considered.
As to the why, we are still talking about Eric Joyce. There has been absolutely no sign whatsoever of any amount of shame or pressure having the slightest effect on stopping him clinging on to that job for dear life.
If unexpected things happen I doubt it would be particularly hard to get a campaign going whereas labour might just have one or two small problems with a united and smooth running campaign in Falkirk. Call it a hunch.
I was more thinking about having a candidate in place, not becuase of the chance of Joyce resigning, but to have a local figure leading the attacks (especially in the local media) over him and the selection saga
McNally is speaking out as far as I know. Which is why I thought he may be a runner for 2015
Just how much is getting through to the local press I'm not so sure.
To be fair though the yawning chasm of silence from Lamont is pretty hard to top and it's not as if Falkirk is short of coverage now that it's a media byword for labour/union 'funny business'.
Lamont finished her reshuffle. Looking at list MSPs elected in 2011 (many by surprise)....the ones left without a shadow position are Hanzala Malik, Margaret McDougall, Siobhan McMahon and Anne McTaggart.
which may give an idea about who the party is not so keen to keep around.....I assume many list MSPs will try to get selected for target constituencies now that Labour have lifted the dual candidacy ban
Pay MPs a hundred grand, no expenses, no second jobs, pool office resources, give 'em a free railcard, no following sodding school terms, and they have to show up at Westminster at least a few times a year!
"From what I saw on the news last night it seems that the government will dictate the price of stamps and the private provider will be obligated to deliver everywhere. Given rival private operators will not have the latter obligation I fail to see how this will resolve the problem of private competition."
If it's an EU directive they don't care about competition within the business itself they just want firms in other EU countries to be able to buy it.
That's a very good Labour result on a lowish poll (the Green vote halved) and must increase the probability of retaking Caroline Lucas's seat (and the other Brighton and Hove seats). (The recent turmoil on the council may exagerrate the trend, though.)
"I was struck by the number of cranes I saw last time I was in London, but when I ask my friends oop North how things are they say "grim".. "
It's a logical consequence of the vampiric banking system that developed since 1997. All the spare capital in the country flows to London and gets used for 100 million type projects around the world which make a lot of money for the city while the rest of the country slowly decays for lack of 10 grand and 100 grand investment.
There's a reason all these politicians get company directorships with banks.
Comments
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Ain't it all a bloomin' shame?
Speaking of Labour, Yvette Cooper visited town today. She impressed & charmed my lady partner. I don't think women are capable of Bullingdon Etonian pomposity.
No matter the volume of bile directed at IPSA today it is still as nothing compared to the fury that has been directed at it by disgruntled MPs since it was set up. Primarily over daring to question their expenses.
There's a need for a quality biography - I'm not aware of one - but it's probably not time critical. If you are keen, though, you could go and by the 5 volume set of his philosophical writings from Amazon
(though yes it is clearly tied up in all of the scandal because of how expenses were used)
Their problem is that they are not eligible for it.
I remember people complaining about MP's pay during the Major era.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/katie-hopkins-branded-an-insufferable-snob-after-this-morning-debate-on-childrens-names-8690468.html
They should have a 10% enforced pay cut rather than a pay rise.
We could then leave it to our newspaper proprietors to compensate the few that are truly worthy of above average recompense.
If they want more money, vote for bigger constituencies.
Is the IoW still a single constituency? That person would do quite well.
tim posted it a couple of days ago hoping I would be shocked.
I'm not sure he realised that the grand-daughter of Earl Mountbatten was named India in honour of grandad's time as Viceroy of the country which bears her name.
I am sure that if we dig hard enough we will find a forebear of Katie Hopkins holding an office of similar political importance.
Shamefully I had somehow almost forgotten about the terrifying public backlash from boundary changes, Seth.
Do you and Fitalass still expect near rioting in the streets when an outraged public learns the horrifying truth?
On the bright side Cammie made up for a reduction in MP numbers by expanding god's waiting room to shamefully overcrowded levels.
How are they expected to have a nice nap with all that hubbub caused by a mass influx of johnny-come-latelies? At least Farage will be vigilant and make sure there are no Bulgarians trying to sneak in.
As for the size of constituencies, are Kalgoorlie constituents under represented?
Has it not occurred to MPs that the reason that the idea of a pay rise for MPs is so unpopular is because they don't deserve one?'
MP's had the chance to do what almost every other organisation has had to do,make some cuts to their bloated numbers & increase their productivity but they chose not to.
Her daughter's name should be changed forthwith to Venetia.
"Bolingbroke is only obscure because he was a traitor. Had he not made the mortal error of judgement of being a Jacobite he may well have outshone Walpole."
Your reservation for Auchentennach is confirmed ....
Pietastic ....
Which is about MODERATED.
MODERATED
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/golf/salmond-flies-the-flag-after-honing-long-game.21578242
We would not need a revising chamber if MPs passed laws that were written correctly in the first place. Not that I am convinced that we need new laws anyway. We have far too many already.
Sack the Lords with all their ermine clothed idiocies. Make Mps work longer terms for their payrise. Job done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqObJtGrKaA
and you think the rest have claimed less ? MEPs are kept hookers.
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/355420822950780928/photo/1
You mean the system is to blame.
That rings a bell. How well did that excuse work for MPs?
That rings a bell. How well did that excuse work for MPs?
No excuse for it at all. pretty strong argument for EU reform or departure.
The European parliament paying over the odds to have their president derided is quite amusing, and part of the reason that Nigel gives Rompuy an ear bashing from time to time. and you think the rest have claimed less ? MEPs are kept hookers.
That rings a bell. How well did that excuse work for MPs?
I suppose we should give Farage and his MEP chums a £10,000 payrise to prevent it from happening again.. titters.
Replacing ermine trim with ferret fur would be a suitable first step.
It's the only language they understand. *chortle*
'Salmond's belly . Triplets due , minimum.'
Competing with Mr Blobby?
Has anyone from Unite resigned yet for being too inept?
Recap....
- the majority of their backed candidates have failed to be selected so far. But in their defence, maybe it's just because their candidates were crap.
- so, to get Falkirk for this Karie Murphy, they mysteriously sign up lots of new people hoping no-one would take note....
- this ends with the selection being suspended, the candidate being suspended and their few backed candidates being witchhunted by the opponents all over the local press and online media.....which is not surprising and you can't even fault their opponents (even if one ConHome piece about Vicky Foxcroft souned really silly at first reading. It wasn't signed, maybe because even the writer realized it)
Have anyone tried to put forwards the case that being an officer manager is more working class than being a SpAd?
Meanwhile, Jon Ashworth joins the NEC to replace Tom Watson there.
I also note the rumous of Unite pushing Jim Sheridan over Dougie. I guess we should applaud them for their support of unrepresented minorities: MPs who speak incomprehensible English
Ah, and William Hague called Cathie Jamieson a stupid woman...Tories are anti Scottish and so now Mundell is at risk. All Scottish women will raise at this offence.
Did I miss anything else relevant?
DISCUSS THE THREAD ONLY AND CUT OUT THE DISGUSTING COMMENTS PLEASE
We're all in this together.
The comical PR master strategies of the incompetent fops will struggle to ever top that.
@Mick_Pork
why hasn't the SNP already selected a candidate in Falkirk for 2015 GE? And why hasn't Labour picked up a candidate for Dunfermline (Holyrood)?
Isn't it better to be ready to benefit for every potential opportunity?
Good to see Labour cleaning up its act after those false accusations of favouritism and nepotism.
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/10474903.School_s__relentless__improvement_praised_after_academy_takeover/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/jul/11/harris-academy-edexcel-inquiry-exam?CMP=twt_fd
As to the why, we are still talking about Eric Joyce. There has been absolutely no sign whatsoever of any amount of shame or pressure having the slightest effect on stopping him clinging on to that job for dear life.
If unexpected things happen I doubt it would be particularly hard to get a campaign going whereas labour might just have one or two small problems with a united and smooth running campaign in Falkirk. Call it a hunch.
Joe Dromey has been selected in New Cross (Lewisham). A sitting Cllr dumped there but it's not entirely Little Dromey's fault as another new female Cllr has been selected in this ward too along with the surviving male Cllr (the other male Cllr was retiring IIRC).
I was more thinking about having a candidate in place, not becuase of the chance of Joyce resigning, but to have a local figure leading the attacks (especially in the local media) over him and the selection saga rather than an anonymous party spokeperson. In the end, it would have been the top target over Labour anyway along with Dundee West and Ochil.
Labour decided for an AWS in Dunfermline last year. And then I didn't hear anything about them. They are going to use pairings again for 2016 but Dunfermline could have been exempted.
When it emerged that the crucial hot-spot footage wasn't available because the tape was being rewound for the entertainment of TV viewers, he should have been automatically given not out.
https://twitter.com/Stuart_King/status/355256784161746944
Just how much is getting through to the local press I'm not so sure.
To be fair though the yawning chasm of silence from Lamont is pretty hard to top and it's not as if Falkirk is short of coverage now that it's a media byword for labour/union 'funny business'.
Imposed or left on their own....they can never get it right. :-)
Probably also because many members left in 1999 fiasco.
Why is EdM bothering with primaries and opt in membership?
Surely the answer is reverting to hereditary succession of seats and office.
Looking at list MSPs elected in 2011 (many by surprise)....the ones left without a shadow position are Hanzala Malik, Margaret McDougall, Siobhan McMahon and Anne McTaggart.
which may give an idea about who the party is not so keen to keep around.....I assume many list MSPs will try to get selected for target constituencies now that Labour have lifted the dual candidacy ban
Happy birthday to Brian Cant who turns 80 tomorrow.
Ind Jackson 140 37.6%
Lab 79 21.2%
Ind Fernandes 57 15.3%
Con 48 12.9%
UKIP 48 12.9%
Regarding Labour, he said: "I'm not sure whether they would do big tax increases [after 2015]. I suspect they would, but that is for them to explain."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23269070
The curious flight path of an Aeroflot jet:
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/355452746717085698/photo/1
"From what I saw on the news last night it seems that the government will dictate the price of stamps and the private provider will be obligated to deliver everywhere. Given rival private operators will not have the latter obligation I fail to see how this will resolve the problem of private competition."
If it's an EU directive they don't care about competition within the business itself they just want firms in other EU countries to be able to buy it.
"Off topic: WTF is the IMF playing at in the Eurozone? The IMF is there to help countries, not to help currencies."
The IMF is a debt-collector for the banks.
"I was struck by the number of cranes I saw last time I was in London, but when I ask my friends oop North how things are they say "grim".. "
It's a logical consequence of the vampiric banking system that developed since 1997. All the spare capital in the country flows to London and gets used for 100 million type projects around the world which make a lot of money for the city while the rest of the country slowly decays for lack of 10 grand and 100 grand investment.
There's a reason all these politicians get company directorships with banks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=10168145&cc=10153794
Happy Birthday, Brian!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjPprQd6HF8
Hell of a split field by the way. Paul leads but is only on 18%!