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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    On Letwin's plans for the constitution, doesn't it run into the problem that no parliament can bind its successors, thus any parliament could simply repeal a law enforcing English votes for English laws as we have no written constitution?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.


    I'll vote for that!
    As a long-term LD voter!!!!!!
  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    According to YouGov LAB voters the most likely to say Alex Murray should get knighted, UKIP voters the least likely http://goo.gl/NAXqk

    Is that should get knighted now or at all i.e. at retirement?

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    On Letwin's plans for the constitution, doesn't it run into the problem that no parliament can bind its successors, thus any parliament could simply repeal a law enforcing English votes for English laws as we have no written constitution?

    It is also the case that Westminster could overturn decisions of the Scottish Parliament and Government. It rarely does so in practice.

  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2013

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)



    That's one of the mistakes the Tory modernizers made - not understanding that the LD vote was made up of different chunks. There was the hug-a-gay-huskie types but also lots of more leftie than Labour types and also a lot of more working class ukippy types who had nowhere else to go at the time (with the proportions varying dramatically round the country).
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited July 2013

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.



    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    has anyone been able to unearth tims predictions for the last GE..
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    LIAMT - True, practical politics precludes it, but on this Labour may well feel it worth the risk!

    Tim - Indeed
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013

    They'd be mad to.

    *chortle*

    It's obvious why the tories and labour want to keep him exactly where he is but that's hardly a compelling reason for lib dems.

    Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't.

    By a quirk in electoral mathematics that happens once every few decades.
    What you actually mean is he made the choice to go into power that none of the previous lib dem leaders had available to them.

    Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there

    It's his possible replacements that have the better survival instincts because they certainly don't want to become the coalition sh*t magnet till the last possible minute.

    and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015.

    The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance of another coalition. It's pretty much that simple. Under Clegg they are hardly looking like those numbers will surge any time soon.

    So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be.

    What makes you think the lib dems or the tory MPs members and grassroots would be prepared to stomach Clegg in charge of coalition negotiations again? For that matter Vince is no spring chicken so he's hardly a certainty.

    The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.

    There's very little sane about having appallingly bad personal poll ratings while blithely watching your base get smashed year on year and hoping that everything will turn out nice come the election.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    doesn't it run into the problem that no parliament can bind its successors.

    They aren't bound. A future bill to remove the final veto of the English MPs on devolved matters would become law if the English MPs voted in favour (ie voting their veto out).

    If Labour could command a majority of English MPs they could get rid of it. But can they?

    How will the Scottish nationalists vote on this, we wonder? Think they will give up power over a country they do not wish to be joined to? LOL
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited July 2013

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.

    Much of Labour's current polling is made up of soft left and soft centre voters . As the economy improves they will tend towards the LibDems and increasingly take fright at Gordon Brown's ruinous and discredited duo , Balls and Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.

    That is a BOLD statement. If the tories can create enough of a hard left stink around labour, it might help the lib dems.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Letwin's plans for the constitution, doesn't it run into the problem that no parliament can bind its successors, thus any parliament could simply repeal a law enforcing English votes for English laws as we have no written constitution?

    Any Letwin plan has one overriding flaw running through it.


    A Letwin Alexander plan apparently. ;)

    Whatever the legislation turns out to be it's stretching things to imagine that there won't be something done after the McKay commission. It's just a question of what.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Mick_Pork said:

    They'd be mad to.

    *chortle*

    It's obvious why the tories and labour want to keep him exactly where he is but that's hardly a compelling reason for lib dems.

    Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't.

    By a quirk in electoral mathematics that happens once every few decades.
    What you actually mean is he made the choice to go into power that none of the previous lib dem leaders had available to them.

    Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there

    It's his possible replacements that have the better survival instincts because they certainly don't want to become the coalition sh*t magnet till the last possible minute.

    and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015.

    The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance of another coalition. It's pretty much that simple. Under Clegg they are hardly looking like those numbers will surge any time soon.

    So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be.

    What makes you think the lib dems or the tory MPs members and grassroots would be prepared to stomach Clegg in charge of coalition negotiations again? For that matter Vince is no spring chicken so he's hardly a certainty.

    The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.

    There's very little sane about having appallingly bad personal poll ratings while blithely watching your base get smashed year on year and hoping that everything will turn out nice come the election.
    We'll just have to see if Farron's cockroach comments come true. You think the LDs are headed for history's dustbin, I think they'll hang on like limpets against the tidal rush. And if Ed or Dave can't convince the electorate in 2015 they'll both be heading to the same place wearing their best smile.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It's just a question of what.

    Which way will the nat MPs jump on this? Abstain?
    Plus, if England intends to grab some powers for itself, could that push things your way north of the border?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Loved this quote

    RT @zerohedge: “If I have made myself clear then you have misunderstood me” - Greenspan
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ian Birrell @ianbirrell

    Bedroom tax hitting disabled people hard, as anticipated. But Labour opposition totally undermined by refusal to pledge to remove it #c4news

    Poor from labour.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    taffys said:

    How will the Scottish nationalists vote on this, we wonder? Think they will give up power over a country they do not wish to be joined to? LOL

    Jesus wept. It's bad enough the usual suspects on here ignored the McKay commission for months, now they don't have the slightest idea about which party already doesn't vote on England only policy???

    LOL indeed.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited July 2013
    Moniker - No way, the left-wing voters only went LD because of Iraq and they were seen as Labour's left-wing conscience, now after the Coalition's cuts they wouldn't touch the LDs if Nick Clegg promised to put each of them up in the Ritz! The LD MPs should enjoy power while it lasts, it will be back in a taxi for those that remain in 2015!
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    already doesn't vote on England only policy???

    But this isn't strictly a policy issue. Its effectively a constitutional issue, surely that's not the same.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.
    Much of Labour's current polling is made up of soft left and soft centre voters . As the economy improves they will tend towards the LibDems and increasingly take fright at Gordon Brown's ruinous and discredited duo , Balls and Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.



    Increasingly pointless Ed Miliband is finding himself on the wrong side of the argument even though he has said nothing. Less inequality, more employment and above all a strengthening economy. And that's before the inevitable feel good election bribes. So with both blues and yellows crowing about their economic management what is Ed going to fight the election on ?
    He's already adopted coalition policies so why would you bother to change ?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Mick_Pork said:

    They'd be mad to.

    *chortle*

    It's obvious why the tories and labour want to keep him exactly where he is but that's hardly a compelling reason for lib dems.

    Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't.

    By a quirk in electoral mathematics that happens once every few decades.
    What you actually mean is he made the choice to go into power that none of the previous lib dem leaders had available to them.

    Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there

    It's his possible replacements that have the better survival instincts because they certainly don't want to become the coalition sh*t magnet till the last possible minute.

    and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015.

    The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance of another coalition. It's pretty much that simple. Under Clegg they are hardly looking like those numbers will surge any time soon.

    So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be.

    What makes you think the lib dems or the tory MPs members and grassroots would be prepared to stomach Clegg in charge of coalition negotiations again? For that matter Vince is no spring chicken so he's hardly a certainty.

    The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.

    There's very little sane about having appallingly bad personal poll ratings while blithely watching your base get smashed year on year and hoping that everything will turn out nice come the election.
    We'll just have to see if Farron's cockroach comments come true. You think the LDs are headed for history's dustbin, I think they'll hang on like limpets against the tidal rush. And if Ed or Dave can't convince the electorate in 2015 they'll both be heading to the same place wearing their best smile.
    I think both Labour and the Conservatives would try to govern as a minority government rather than entering into coalition with the LDs.

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    They'd be mad to.

    *chortle*

    It's obvious why the tories and labour want to keep him exactly where he is but that's hardly a compelling reason for lib dems.

    Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't.

    By a quirk in electoral mathematics that happens once every few decades.
    What you actually mean is he made the choice to go into power that none of the previous lib dem leaders had available to them.

    Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there

    It's his possible replacements that have the better survival instincts because they certainly don't want to become the coalition sh*t magnet till the last possible minute.

    and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015.

    The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance of another coalition. It's pretty much that simple. Under Clegg they are hardly looking like those numbers will surge any time soon.

    So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be.

    What makes you think the lib dems or the tory MPs members and grassroots would be prepared to stomach Clegg in charge of coalition negotiations again? For that matter Vince is no spring chicken so he's hardly a certainty.

    The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.

    There's very little sane about having appallingly bad personal poll ratings while blithely watching your base get smashed year on year and hoping that everything will turn out nice come the election.
    We'll just have to see if Farron's cockroach comments come true. You think the LDs are headed for history's dustbin, I think they'll hang on like limpets against the tidal rush. And if Ed or Dave can't convince the electorate in 2015 they'll both be heading to the same place wearing their best smile.
    I've heard this rather ludicrous line before but usually from the lib dems. I'm not saying the lib dems are going to cease to be as a party (is anyone?) but they are absolutely heading for a severe hammering with nothing on the horizon to mitigate that while Clegg is leader.

    Any slight economic uptick will be claimed by the tories during the election campaign. (and be of little consequence unless living standards and wages improve markedly too) The tories are hardly about to heap praise all over Cleggy and the lib dems when they are fighting against them in so many seats. It's every man for himself come the election.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Mick_Pork said:

    They'd be mad to.

    *chortle*

    It's obvious why the tories and labour want to keep him exactly where he is but that's hardly a compelling reason for lib dems.

    Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't.

    By a quirk in electoral mathematics that happens once every few decades.
    What you actually mean is he made the choice to go into power that none of the previous lib dem leaders had available to them.

    Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there

    It's his possible replacements that have the better survival instincts because they certainly don't want to become the coalition sh*t magnet till the last possible minute.

    and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015.

    The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance of another coalition. It's pretty much that simple. Under Clegg they are hardly looking like those numbers will surge any time soon.

    So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be.

    What makes you think the lib dems or the tory MPs members and grassroots would be prepared to stomach Clegg in charge of coalition negotiations again? For that matter Vince is no spring chicken so he's hardly a certainty.

    The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.

    There's very little sane about having appallingly bad personal poll ratings while blithely watching your base get smashed year on year and hoping that everything will turn out nice come the election.
    We'll just have to see if Farron's cockroach comments come true. You think the LDs are headed for history's dustbin, I think they'll hang on like limpets against the tidal rush. And if Ed or Dave can't convince the electorate in 2015 they'll both be heading to the same place wearing their best smile.
    I think both Labour and the Conservatives would try to govern as a minority government rather than entering into coalition with the LDs.

    well yes, but wouldn't that depend on the numbers ? As we have seen a coalition has a certain stability. This time last year we were all threads about when does the coalition split, but it didn't; this year it's all about running to 2015. A supply arrangement isn't without its frustrations either and has less stability.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.
    Much of Labour's current polling is made up of soft left and soft centre voters . As the economy improves they will tend towards the LibDems and increasingly take fright at Gordon Brown's ruinous and discredited duo , Balls and Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.

    Increasingly pointless Ed Miliband is finding himself on the wrong side of the argument even though he has said nothing. Less inequality, more employment and above all a strengthening economy. And that's before the inevitable feel good election bribes. So with both blues and yellows crowing about their economic management what is Ed going to fight the election on ?
    He's already adopted coalition policies so why would you bother to change ?

    Alan,maybe labour going to fight the next election on this -


    Will Straw @wdjstraw

    Significant news from @edballsmp as he pledges Labour would beef up Green Investment Bank esp for energy efficiency http://bit.ly/12Zsqwa



  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Labour’s vision for a green economic future

    Unlike the Conservatives, a Labour government would make sustainable energy a major national priority and give business the confidence to invest.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/labour’s-vision-green-economic-future
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Alanbrooke

    'what is Ed going to fight the election on ?'

    The only party not offering an EU referendum?
    Predators & predistibution?

    'He's already adopted coalition policies so why would you bother to change ?'

    What's the point of Labour?

  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2013

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.
    Much of Labour's current polling is made up of soft left and soft centre voters . As the economy improves they will tend towards the LibDems and increasingly take fright at Gordon Brown's ruinous and discredited duo , Balls and Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.

    Those that have peeled away from Labour this year, have moved to UKIP and the Conservatives.

    http://hopisen.com/2013/labours-polling-dip-whats-behind-it-and-does-it-matter/
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Your true character is revealed in those few words.

    What is wrong with getting drinks? I fnd this approach offensive.

    john_zims said:

    @:Tim

    'Far easier to have 12 people for kitchen supper.'

    Or Len for a pint?

    Which Ed would pour.....

    Come on Mike.

    Every normal person would have a butler or waiter to pour their drinks.

    You have to get as low as Southam Observer or tim before you start to find people doing it for themselves.

  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Ian Birrell @ianbirrell

    Bedroom tax hitting disabled people hard, as anticipated. But Labour opposition totally undermined by refusal to pledge to remove it #c4news

    Poor from labour.

    It's an obscenity, an utter obscenity.
    And the way Cameron can't even be arsed to get up to speed on which carers for disabled people are affected is stomach churning.

    And politically Labour are waiting for the figure to come through showing it won't save any money, just destroy people's lives.
    But I don't know how long that line should be held for because it shames the govt.

    And whoever gets sent out to defend it gets destroyed.
    Agree tim.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    They'd be mad to.

    *chortle*

    It's obvious why the tories and labour want to keep him exactly where he is but that's hardly a compelling reason for lib dems.

    Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't.

    By a quirk in electoral mathematics that happens once every few decades.
    What you actually mean is he made the choice to go into power that none of the previous lib dem leaders had available to them.

    Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there

    It's his possible replacements that have the better survival instincts because they certainly don't want to become the coalition sh*t magnet till the last possible minute.

    and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015.

    The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance of another coalition. It's pretty much that simple. Under Clegg they are hardly looking like those numbers will surge any time soon.

    So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be.

    What makes you think the lib dems or the tory MPs members and grassroots would be prepared to stomach Clegg in charge of coalition negotiations again? For that matter Vince is no spring chicken so he's hardly a certainty.

    The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.

    There's very little sane about having appallingly bad personal poll ratings while blithely watching your base get smashed year on year and hoping that everything will turn out nice come the election.
    We'll just have to see if Farron's cockroach comments come true. You think the LDs are headed for history's dustbin, I think they'll hang on like limpets against the tidal rush. And if Ed or Dave can't convince the electorate in 2015 they'll both be heading to the same place wearing their best smile.
    I've heard this rather ludicrous line before but usually from the lib dems. I'm not saying the lib dems are going to cease to be as a party (is anyone?) but they are absolutely heading for a severe hammering with nothing on the horizon to mitigate that while Clegg is leader.

    Any slight economic uptick will be claimed by the tories during the election campaign. (and be of little consequence unless living standards and wages improve markedly too) The tories are hardly about to heap praise all over Cleggy and the lib dems when they are fighting against them in so many seats. It's every man for himself come the election.
    I'd say the LDs are quite capable of claiming their own share in economic recovery. The Coalition will start to distance itself post Indyref imo and then it's every man for himself. The replace Clegg argument is too centred on a personality. Firstly his 2 opponents aren't exactly inspiring - neither is beloved of the electorate - and secondly who would replace him ? Huhne's gone, Vince is too old and anyone sensible would want to step into the shoes post election and start clean rather than take the risk of being blamed if the result is bad.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2013
    HYUFD said:

    Moniker - No way, the left-wing voters only went LD because of Iraq and they were seen as Labour's left-wing conscience, now after the Coalition's cuts they wouldn't touch the LDs if Nick Clegg promised to put each of them up in the Ritz! The LD MPs should enjoy power while it lasts, it will be back in a taxi for those that remain in 2015!

    My most august and revered organ, the ARSE, is presently predicting 44 seats for the LibDems. That's an awfully large taxi, even by Blue Peter standards !!

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moniker - No way, the left-wing voters only went LD because of Iraq and they were seen as Labour's left-wing conscience, now after the Coalition's cuts they wouldn't touch the LDs if Nick Clegg promised to put each of them up in the Ritz! The LD MPs should enjoy power while it lasts, it will be back in a taxi for those that remain in 2015!

    My most august and revered organ. the ARSE, is presently predicting 44 seats for the LibDems. That's an awfully large taxi, even by Blue Peter standards !!

    Good evening Jack! Do you think this taxi may fit the bill? :)

    http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/02/6c/e8/6d/big-taxi-bus-tours.jpg
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moniker - No way, the left-wing voters only went LD because of Iraq and they were seen as Labour's left-wing conscience, now after the Coalition's cuts they wouldn't touch the LDs if Nick Clegg promised to put each of them up in the Ritz! The LD MPs should enjoy power while it lasts, it will be back in a taxi for those that remain in 2015!

    My most august and revered organ. the ARSE, is presently predicting 44 seats for the LibDems. That's an awfully large taxi, even by Blue Peter standards !!

    Good evening Jack! Do you think this taxi may fit the bill? :)

    http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/02/6c/e8/6d/big-taxi-bus-tours.jpg
    LOL .... more than adequate I'd say.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.
    Much of Labour's current polling is made up of soft left and soft centre voters . As the economy improves they will tend towards the LibDems and increasingly take fright at Gordon Brown's ruinous and discredited duo , Balls and Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.

    Increasingly pointless Ed Miliband is finding himself on the wrong side of the argument even though he has said nothing. Less inequality, more employment and above all a strengthening economy. And that's before the inevitable feel good election bribes. So with both blues and yellows crowing about their economic management what is Ed going to fight the election on ?
    He's already adopted coalition policies so why would you bother to change ?
    Alan,maybe labour going to fight the next election on this -


    Will Straw @wdjstraw

    Significant news from @edballsmp as he pledges Labour would beef up Green Investment Bank esp for energy efficiency http://bit.ly/12Zsqwa





    complete and utter Balls. The man's a tit. the problem for UK plc has been high energy costs and a failure to plan for supply. I know labour are racing to sign up to Tory policies but this is adopting husky hugging Dave circa 2007, truly mindless.

    What IS the point of Labour ?
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moniker - No way, the left-wing voters only went LD because of Iraq and they were seen as Labour's left-wing conscience, now after the Coalition's cuts they wouldn't touch the LDs if Nick Clegg promised to put each of them up in the Ritz! The LD MPs should enjoy power while it lasts, it will be back in a taxi for those that remain in 2015!

    My most august and revered organ, the ARSE, is presently predicting 44 seats for the LibDems. That's an awfully large taxi, even by Blue Peter standards !!

    Surely you need a 4x4 Chelsea Tractor, Jack.

  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.
    Much of Labour's current polling is made up of soft left and soft centre voters . As the economy improves they will tend towards the LibDems and increasingly take fright at Gordon Brown's ruinous and discredited duo , Balls and Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.

    Increasingly pointless Ed Miliband is finding himself on the wrong side of the argument even though he has said nothing. Less inequality, more employment and above all a strengthening economy. And that's before the inevitable feel good election bribes. So with both blues and yellows crowing about their economic management what is Ed going to fight the election on ?
    He's already adopted coalition policies so why would you bother to change ?
    Alan,maybe labour going to fight the next election on this -


    Will Straw @wdjstraw

    Significant news from @edballsmp as he pledges Labour would beef up Green Investment Bank esp for energy efficiency http://bit.ly/12Zsqwa



    complete and utter Balls. The man's a tit. the problem for UK plc has been high energy costs and a failure to plan for supply. I know labour are racing to sign up to Tory policies but this is adopting husky hugging Dave circa 2007, truly mindless.

    What IS the point of Labour ?

    I knew it would get you going - lol

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2013
    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moniker - No way, the left-wing voters only went LD because of Iraq and they were seen as Labour's left-wing conscience, now after the Coalition's cuts they wouldn't touch the LDs if Nick Clegg promised to put each of them up in the Ritz! The LD MPs should enjoy power while it lasts, it will be back in a taxi for those that remain in 2015!

    My most august and revered organ, the ARSE, is presently predicting 44 seats for the LibDems. That's an awfully large taxi, even by Blue Peter standards !!

    Surely you need a 4x4 Chelsea Tractor, Jack.

    Certainly not. Rather vulgar in town old chap.

    Nite all ....

    Come on, up the stairs you stupid woman !!

    Oh er Missus JackW

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Interesting new line of attack that we saw a week or so back with Gove and Twigg. Try to put their LAB opposites on the spot by asking them difficult questions.

    Looks like a Crosby approach - quite smart

    TGOHF said:
    Hunt wants permission to let his department release dates and minutes of meetings and correspondence between ministers and union leaders from Burnham’s time as Health Secretary. He also asks for a list of all union donations to shadow health ministers’ constituency parties, election campaigns and parliamentary offices...
    QTWTAIN?
    It's the kind of stuff that keeps supporters and cheerleaders happy. But as we saw with Gove's very clever letter it makes zero impact on people who live in the real world.
    It also provides journalists with copy...and manifesto writers with ammunition...either of which might get through..

    It seems as if Crosby has given up on wavering LDs and Labour voters. His goal is to bring home the UKIPers in the hope that will be enough to get the Tories over the line in 2015.
    One of the funniest things about UKIP's rise, is that they have attracted more 2010 LD voters than the Conservatives.

    The Cameroons whole strategy was designed attract the nice LDs, and then the blighters prefer those ghastly UKIP fruitcakes instead. :-)

    Having taken that journey they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Maybe they are the best hope for the LDs to get voters back.
    Replacing Mr Clegg looks like the LDs best remaining option.

    They'd be mad to. Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't. Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015. So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be. The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.
    What other options do they have? LD poll numbers have been flat since late 2010. Their local election results were 2011: 15%, 2012: 16%, 2013: 14%.

    the hang in and sweat it out option. If neither of the two main parties can reach a majority then a parliamentary block more than 30 is a strong negotiating position. And this time the LDs will be in a better position to avoid some of the mistakes they made in 2010.

    They can sell themselves as the only moderates capable of controlling swivel-eyed George and McCluskey puppet Ed.
    Much of Labour's current polling is made up of soft left and soft centre voters . As the economy improves they will tend towards the LibDems and increasingly take fright at Gordon Brown's ruinous and discredited duo , Balls and Miliband. I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDem's improve on their 2010 GE result in 2015.

    Increasingly pointless Ed Miliband is finding himself on the wrong side of the argument even though he has said nothing. Less inequality, more employment and above all a strengthening economy. And that's before the inevitable feel good election bribes. So with both blues and yellows crowing about their economic management what is Ed going to fight the election on ?
    He's already adopted coalition policies so why would you bother to change ?
    Alan,maybe labour going to fight the next election on this -


    Will Straw @wdjstraw

    Significant news from @edballsmp as he pledges Labour would beef up Green Investment Bank esp for energy efficiency http://bit.ly/12Zsqwa



    complete and utter Balls. The man's a tit. the problem for UK plc has been high energy costs and a failure to plan for supply. I know labour are racing to sign up to Tory policies but this is adopting husky hugging Dave circa 2007, truly mindless.

    What IS the point of Labour ?
    I knew it would get you going - lol



    not difficult these days TJ :-)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    JackW Yougov has the LDs on 10% even in 1979 they had 13%
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2013
    It's a good time to bet on the gender of the royal baby

    Girl 4/7 Coral / VC
    Boy 9/4 Ladbrokes
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    New Thread
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    They'd be mad to.

    *chortle*

    It's obvious why the tories and labour want to keep him exactly where he is but that's hardly a compelling reason for lib dems.

    Clegg got into a govt when most of the other "stars" didn't.

    By a quirk in electoral mathematics that happens once every few decades.
    What you actually mean is he made the choice to go into power that none of the previous lib dem leaders had available to them.

    Clegg has better survival instincts than Dave or Ed and despite all the jibes he is still there

    It's his possible replacements that have the better survival instincts because they certainly don't want to become the coalition sh*t magnet till the last possible minute.

    and will potentially hold the balance of power in 2015.

    The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance of another coalition. It's pretty much that simple. Under Clegg they are hardly looking like those numbers will surge any time soon.

    So the LDs have a route to the blues- Clegg -and one to the Reds - Cable. Nice place to be.

    What makes you think the lib dems or the tory MPs members and grassroots would be prepared to stomach Clegg in charge of coalition negotiations again? For that matter Vince is no spring chicken so he's hardly a certainty.

    The LDs are currently letting Labour and the Conservatives hack chunks out of each other whilst sitting quietly on the sidelines. Just by not getting involved in idiot fights they can carve out a position as the vaguely sane ones.

    There's very little sane about having appallingly bad personal poll ratings while blithely watching your base get smashed year on year and hoping that everything will turn out nice come the election.
    We'll just have to see if Farron's cockroach comments come true. You think the LDs are headed for history's dustbin, I think they'll hang on like limpets against the tidal rush. And if Ed or Dave can't convince the electorate in 2015 they'll both be heading to the same place wearing their best smile.
    I've heard this rather ludicrous line before but usually from the lib dems. I'm not saying the lib dems are going to cease to be as a party (is anyone?) but they are absolutely heading for a severe hammering with nothing on the horizon to mitigate that while Clegg is leader.

    Any slight economic uptick will be claimed by the tories during the election campaign. (and be of little consequence unless living standards and wages improve markedly too) The tories are hardly about to heap praise all over Cleggy and the lib dems when they are fighting against them in so many seats. It's every man for himself come the election.
    I'd say the LDs are quite capable of claiming their own share in economic recovery. The Coalition will start to distance itself post Indyref imo and then it's every man for himself. The replace Clegg argument is too centred on a personality. Firstly his 2 opponents aren't exactly inspiring - neither is beloved of the electorate - and secondly who would replace him ? Huhne's gone, Vince is too old and anyone sensible would want to step into the shoes post election and start clean rather than take the risk of being blamed if the result is bad.

    Oh, I'm pretty certain the voting public can't wait for little Danny and Osbrowne to tell them they've never had it so good. :)

    Don't quite know how that squares with Danny repeatedly getting voted worst performer by his own lib dem members or Osbrowne's hilariously bad approval ratings, but it will be entertaining nonetheless.

    You think the debates aren't gong to make the election about personality? For that matter you'd best have a word with Crosby because he's absolutely going to make the election about personality.

    For possible Clegg replacements have a look at the odds. Farron still looks fairly good and Cable might still have a run as caretaker for a while. Lamb is an invisible man these days TBH. Only in extremis and deadlock could I see him getting it as a compromise candidate.

    The idea that there won't be ambitious MPs who want to be leader in any party is a curious one. That certainly hasn't been the lib dem way for a while now as Clegg knows all too well. He was quite happy to stick the knife into Ming when the time was ripe after all. There is guaranteed to be a high profile lib dem MP who thinks they could so a better job as leader at the election. Just not quite yet for obvious reasons.
This discussion has been closed.