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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far no conference or JC re-election bounce for LAB
TMay's net YouGov "Well/badly" ratings down from +31% on Sep 4 to +24%. By 42% to 26% sample said she "doesn't "care for people like me"
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Edit: is this a surprise? The public will, as a whole, have made up their mind on Corbyn.
Lots of JC on the telly, and Labour didn't go down in the polls.
An omen for the general election.
In response to your query on the last thread, I shall plead the 5th.
Just look at the splits!
Con
15% Yes
76% No
Lab
65% Yes
22% No
I say us blues reach across party boundaries and give the red team what they want.
Anyone know how Ladbrokes' edit my acca works?
It cannot be like the way they are advertising it surely?
GEORGE Galloway has targeted Natalie McGarry’s Glasgow East seat after announcing he’ll stand again for Westminster.
The ex-Labour and Respect MP is convinced he can beat the SNP in the seat as an independent and campaign against a second Scots referendum.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/george-galloway-targets-glasgow-east-8945496
I was talking about foreign policy. Since the Great Game, I can't really think of any real UK foreign policy Vision (as opposed to many very effective reaction/response policies), except the retreat from East of Aden. "The winds of change" was a glimpse, not a vision.
Rising to the bait:
Rhodes - South African
Churchill - half American
Brunel - half French
Theresa May = Pound Shop Gordon Brown
Must be your public school thickness
She now needs to move into the next phase of actually making those decisions. In respect of Hinkley Point, she has now done so, after a botched start. There are indications that a final decision on Heathrow is coming soon. Even if those decisions are unpopular with some - and there's no way of pleasing everyone - she will, I think, get political credit, however grudging, for gripping them firmly.
Brexit, obviously, is the most important and far-reaching of the difficult issues she has to deal with. However, it's an issue which is not in her power to decide on unilaterally, so a further extensive and damaging period of uncertainty is inevitable - at least a year's worth, maybe more. That makes it even more important to show that she has a strong grip on those other contentious issues.
The most plausible theory I've heard is that by appointing Fox and Davis is her way of buggering up Brexit, so we never leave.
My pre-qualifying ramble is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/malaysia-pre-qualifying.html
I agree the negotiating question is daft. It's like asking someone if they enjoyed dinner when the ingredients are still being chosen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cecil_Rhodes
One of Rhodes's primary motivators in politics and business was his professed belief that the English-speaking peoples were destined to greatness as, to quote his will, "the first race in the world".[3] Under the reasoning that "the more of the world we inhabit the better it is for the human race",[3] he advocated vigorous settler colonialism and ultimately a reformation of the British Empire so that each component would be self-governing and represented in a single parliament in London. Ambitions such as these, juxtaposed with his policies regarding indigenous Africans in the Cape Colony—describing the country's black population as largely "in a state of barbarism", he advocated their governance as a "subject race" and was at the centre of moves to marginalise them politically—have led recent critics to characterise him as a white supremacist and "an architect of apartheid.”
And would it be entirely unfair to suggest that you're a little confused about the difference between immigrant and self-professed colonialist ?
Tony Blair and international interventionism as a force for good. He was even going on about the Peace of Westphalia at one point.
In general I agree with you. In particular I can't think of any foreign minister that has made any mark at all. Unlike, say, Dean Acheson and Henry Kissinger in the US or Hans-Dietrich Genscher in Germany. Several Federal Chancellors did stints as FMs beforehand
REMAIN 48%
We all assume border controls (or, as @Casino_Royale would have it, a letter from your employer) are the first non-negotiable but she can't even acknowledge this, given so many other balls are in the air.
Hence her no running commentary stance. I'm not sure how she gets round it, she must choose between pragmatism cards on the table this is what we want on the one hand, and the huge risk of being skewered politically for broken promises on the other.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p006vm6j
Number of tweets about early voting: 0
We are at risk of getting a negotiation that is not in the best interest of the country but in the best interest of May surviving as PM.
For the best interest of the country I think we need a splitting of all the parties and subsequent re-alignment that better matches the choices we need to make.
I always seem to get them near me at orgies....
I'll grant you that Tony Blair was more visionary re international interventionism.
30 years ago, when preparing for a promotion board in the FCO, I was asked by the then Head of Middle East Department what Britain's policy towards the Middle East should be. I got a few sentences into what would have been a convoluted response, when he stopped me. 'Tim, we don't have the resources to implement any policy. We can only react.'
I realized the truth in those words, but I never understood why it should mean that we needn't reflect on what we want. Knowing that, at least we could fashion our responses such that they might steer outcomes in a desired direction.
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/781811591981461505
In my defence, Rhodes is something of a bête noire for me...
That's why the Cons supporters saying they don't want an early election I believe are so mistaken. A larger majority not only means she doesn't have to worry about Lab, but that she doesn't have to worry about any rebels.
The country needs a pragmatic solution that is as good as possible under the circumstances, not a solution dictated by the loons.
Poland was a year later, when The Russians snuggled up to Hitler.
It didn't impinge on her consciousness that there were some very tricky jobs to be done first. I don't imagine Theresa May is a stupid woman. She must be saying to herself now, what on earth was I thinking?
And let's face it, nobody goes into politics to make Gordon Brown look good....
https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/newt-gingrich-alicia-machado-is-the-new-benghazi-lie
My lovely, but more right wing than Thatcher grandmother votes Lib D in local elections because she thinks they're better councillors locally - but literally laughs at the party nationally.
This means starting off by saying 'These are the non-negotiable things we must have. Given these, and our (EU/UK) mutual interests, how do you (EU) suggest we proceed to do least damage to these mutual interests?' while making it clear that we are prepared to walk without a deal if the EU says no deal without negotiating the non-negotiables.
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/781845030336094208
"...September 30 is one of the most tragic dates in the 20th century. On this day in 1938, the Prime Ministers of Great Britain and France Neville Chamberlain and Edouard Daladier met with Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini in Munich and signed a settlement on the transferring to Germany of the Sudetenland area of Czechoslovakia. The representatives of the latter country were only invited to be coerced into signing the pact. This notorious agreement became known as the Munich Betrayal. Poland and Hungary later occupied more areas of Czechoslovakia.
What the Munich Betrayal actually meant was the capitulation of the Western European countries in the face of Nazism. Their leaders chose not to join forces with the Soviet Union in the fight against Germany’s National Socialism, and opted instead to appease the aggressor in an attempt to deflect the threat and steer the German war machine to the East. On the same day, September 30, Chamberlain and Hitler signed a declaration of non-aggression, and a similar pact was signed by Ribbentrop and French Foreign Minister Georges Bonnet-Etienne on December 6, 1938.
The appeasement allowed Hitler to launch the Second World War..."
https://youtu.be/tbtAGvLdAdg
Yes you are right that it will never happen though.
(Funnily enough, I am currently reading a book by the 2006 Nobel Laureate)
Nottingham is also twinned with Harare (Salisbury) and has the higbest poplulation of Rhodesians Zimbabweans in the UK.
As you say, we have to make the first move so hence, I would like these negotiations to be conducted in as much public as possible.
I think it would be good for us all if our negotiators walk into the room with a clear idea of what the country wants and hence argue tooth and nail for it.
Mr. Rentool, nice idea, but I don't have any prizes... and I gather making them up is frowned upon.