@tim - Where did Cameron and/or Osborne say that Obama's plan would fail? The latter may have (not sensibly I accept) once compared UK to US growth, but that's a far far cry from condemning the US approach. My recollection is that Cameron has commented that the US is pursuing policies appropriate to its economy/deficit/circumstances etc and the UK is for its.
There's something compelling about tim when he's in the kind of mode he's in this afternoon. Absolutely nothing will be allowed to shake him off his narrative. Go tim!
Don't you want just rush up and give him the biggest hug a boy can get?
I know you do.
Me - I'd grab him warmly and affectionately by the throat. And I'd let go. Eventually.
@tim - He's certainly right to say that 'planned is too strong a word' to describe the proposals.
FWIW I think he may also be right that Ed genuinely wants to move Labour in the direction of a more mass-market style party. It fits in with the feeble efforts he made earlier with 'Refounding Labour' [remember that?]
But that isn't the point - it's the quarter-baked nature of the proposals, the absurd timing (would any sane leader try to start this two years before the GE??? He should have started two years ago if he really meant it), the fact that he clearly hasn't squared it with the key stakeholders, the abstract nature of the initiative, the lack of detail, the fact that he hasn't actually addressed today's selection and policy issues, etc etc.
It seems likely to me that at least one set of official statistics (and possibly more than one) at present is seriously awry. If we are to believe what the statistics are telling us at present, productivity is bad and getting worse, yet employment is apparently continuing to increase and economic growth is increasing, all at a time of public sector job losses.
I suppose it's possible that all of these are true, but it seems inherently unlikely.
Falling productivity and growing employment is easy to reconcile. Companeis are hiring people instead of investing in plant and machinery because it is cheaper to do - but it's also less efficient.
Not necessarily less efficient. In general, it is easier to hire someone for a short time if you need the flexibility that comes with a human brain. If you know what you want, and want lots of it, automate and get robots in.
@Neil - Even as we speak, tim 'never knowingly overblown' is scurrying away in the bowels of his tax-free mansion locating that killer quote about George and Dave saying Obabma's plan will fail.
It seems likely to me that at least one set of official statistics (and possibly more than one) at present is seriously awry. If we are to believe what the statistics are telling us at present, productivity is bad and getting worse, yet employment is apparently continuing to increase and economic growth is increasing, all at a time of public sector job losses.
I suppose it's possible that all of these are true, but it seems inherently unlikely.
Falling productivity and growing employment is easy to reconcile. Companeis are hiring people instead of investing in plant and machinery because it is cheaper to do - but it's also less efficient.
Not necessarily less efficient. In general, it is easier to hire someone for a short time if you need the flexibility that comes with a human brain. If you know what you want, and want lots of it, automate and get robots in.
I'm confused now... are we talking about economic growth or the Labour candidate selection process?
It seems likely to me that at least one set of official statistics (and possibly more than one) at present is seriously awry. If we are to believe what the statistics are telling us at present, productivity is bad and getting worse, yet employment is apparently continuing to increase and economic growth is increasing, all at a time of public sector job losses.
I suppose it's possible that all of these are true, but it seems inherently unlikely.
Falling productivity and growing employment is easy to reconcile. Companeis are hiring people instead of investing in plant and machinery because it is cheaper to do - but it's also less efficient.
Not necessarily less efficient. In general, it is easier to hire someone for a short time if you need the flexibility that comes with a human brain. If you know what you want, and want lots of it, automate and get robots in.
True. But my point was that it is not too tricky to reconcile falling productivity and growing employment - especially at a time when growth is weak and business investment generally is down.
@tim - He's certainly right to say that 'planned is too strong a word' to describe the proposals.
FWIW I think he may also be right that Ed genuinely wants to move Labour in the direction of a more mass-market style party. It fits in with the feeble efforts he made earlier with 'Refounding Labour' [remember that?]
But that isn't the point - it's the quarter-baked nature of the proposals, the absurd timing (would any sane leader try to start this two years before the GE??? He should have started two years ago if he really meant it), the fact that he clearly hasn't squared it with the key stakeholders, the abstract nature of the initiative, the lack of detail, the fact that he hasn't actually addressed today's selection and policy issues, etc etc.
Well, that probably depends what you're trying to achieve. If you're trying to neutralise Crosby attack lines about "Labour in the pockets of unions" then 2 years out from the election is about right to start being seen to do something, while not having the risk of coming to the end of a "reform" process which ends up not changing anything. If you're actually trying to change things, then maybe you'd start rather earlier.
I'd guess that being seen to change the relationship with unions has greater electoral importance than actually changing the relationship with unions, which suggests that this is a decent way to get on with the core business of winning an election.
required reading for those PB tories who have spent the last few days not understanding.
It is a big if, but if Miliband sees this through we will end up with the kind of Labour party I have been waiting all my adult life to see. I think that is very exciting.
Well, that probably depends what you're trying to achieve. If you're trying to neutralise Crosby attack lines about "Labour in the pockets of unions" then 2 years out from the election is about right to start being seen to do something, while not having the risk of coming to the end of a "reform" process which ends up not changing anything. If you're actually trying to change things, then maybe you'd start rather earlier.
I'd guess that being seen to change the relationship with unions has greater electoral importance than actually changing the relationship with unions, which suggests that this is a decent way to get on with the core business of winning an election.
Hmm, not so sure about that. He's given his opponents plenty of free ammunition: "You spoke of a 'politics that was hated, a politics of the machine', and yet your own leadership only happened because of that machine, you are are still in the pockets of the unions two years later, many of your candidates were placed by Unite, you said you'd no longer take their money but you are still taking it..."
And how is he going to respond to Nick Clegg's selfless and generous offer to help him implement what he claims to want?
Just catching up with EdM's afternoon - and Houston seems to have a problem - Lord Whitty turned the job down as it was 'unworkable' and now Mr Collins previously Deputy Gen Sec of Unite is going to be in charge of making it happen?
That's a hospital pass if ever I saw one. Who blabbled that Whitty turned it down I wonder.
And the IMF have just upgraded us as one of only three countries to improve growth whilst the EUzone falls even further behind... where is Ed Balls?
'It is a big if, but if Miliband sees this through we will end up with the kind of Labour party I have been waiting all my adult life to see. I think that is very exciting'
You may have a very long wait,no details,no timeline,no mechanism. And of course we had all the stuff about second jobs when Brown was PM, that of course happened.
'planned is too strong a word – proposals won’t happen before the next election'
required reading for those PB tories who have spent the last few days not understanding.
It is a big if, but if Miliband sees this through we will end up with the kind of Labour party I have been waiting all my adult life to see. I think that is very exciting.
There's also room for Labour to forge links with individuals in unaffiliated Trade unions now, where the Union itself didn't want to affiliate.
It generally makes Labour a more attractive proposition as a lot of the machine stuff disappears. With that, you'll end up with better funding, a wider variety of ideas and better parliamentary candidates. He has to see it through though.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics Blog: As a fellow fortysomething fighter of the flab, I feel for George Osborne after his car-crash of a jogging... http://tgr.ph/1deEOtL
Are they coming or going, do they know?
Remarkable that no one has ever managed to take an embarassing photo of Ed yet!
Ed did well to try to push the union issue onto the front foot and he should continue this at PMQs - we're getting to grips with the issues facing our party; over Europe/bankers you're not; or/and single payer donation caps, second job caps.
'Just catching up with EdM's afternoon - and Houston seems to have a problem - Lord Whitty turned the job down as it was 'unworkable' and now Mr Collins previously Deputy Gen Sec of Unite is going to be in charge of making it happen?'
Reassuring such an impartial individual is in charge of making it happen.
Funny you should mention that book, I reread it recently but this time whenever Kenneth Widmerpool was mentioned I couldnt help picturing him as George Osborne. Do I need to give myself a hug?
Funny you should mention that book, I reread it recently but this time whenever Kenneth Widmerpool was mentioned I couldnt help picturing him as George Osborne. Do I need to give myself a hug?
OOOOKKKKAAAYYY, but not too many - I don't want you going all narcisstic like wage slave!
Want a bit of free advice. Tell your party to get Grant Spiv off the airwaves and put McCloughlin or someone on, hes a lightweight snake oil salesman. And all he knows about entryism and unions is after being entered by Michael Green and Sebastian Fox
You may say that, gorgeous playmate, I am far too dignified to comment.
'Just catching up with EdM's afternoon - and Houston seems to have a problem - Lord Whitty turned the job down as it was 'unworkable' and now Mr Collins previously Deputy Gen Sec of Unite is going to be in charge of making it happen?'
Reassuring such an impartial individual is in charge of making it happen.
In a speech attacking conflict of interest the choice of Collins was rich.
'Almost farcically, Miliband has chosen former Unite assistant General Secretary Ray Collins to lead the party’s trade union review. Back in 2009 Collins denied knowledge of the Red Rag* attack site that sought to smear Tory MPs. MODERATED
The IMF's revisions to 2013-2014 growth forecasts have already been mentioned on thread.
Here is an ordered table of the cumulative revisions for the two years for all countries and regions whose growth is forecast in the IMF report.
IMF World Economic Outlook - July 2013 Cumulative revisions to GDP growth forecasts 2013-2014 ----------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------
Countries and Regions uprated ----------------------------------------------------------- United Kingdom 0.3
Countries and Regions unchanged ----------------------------------------------------------- Canada 0.0 Central and Eastern Europe 0.0
Countries and Regions downrated ----------------------------------------------------------- France (0.1) Italy (0.1) ASEAN-5 (5) (0.1) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (0.1) Japan (0.2) Other Advanced Economies (2) (0.2) Advanced Economies (0.3) Euro Area (0.3) Excluding Russia (0.3) India (4) (0.3) World Output (1) (0.4) United States (0.4) Germany (0.4) Emerging Market and Developing Economies (3) (0.6) Developing Asia (0.6) Sub-Saharan Africa (0.6) Spain (0.7) Mexico (0.7) China (0.9) Latin America and the Caribbean (0.9) Commonwealth of Independent States (1.0) South Africa (1.2) Brazil (1.3) Russia (1.4)
Well done Boy George. You sit alone at the top of the class.
The *real* good news of the day is Ireland's qualification for the World Cup after a dramatic last ball 6 from the Netherlands to secure a draw in the week's big cricket fixture.
The *real* good newsl of the day is Ireland's qualification for the World Cup after a dramatic last ball 6 from the Netherlands to secure a draw in the week's big cricket fixture.
Oh I am sorry, Neil.
I should have qualified my statement with "excepting village cricket results"!
Blair ,McCluskey and D M make it a hat trick.. third good laugh of the day. A sleazy discredited ex PM, a weak, defeated contender and ex MP and a Union Baron who has nO intention of supporting it . The Three Stooges
'Almost farcically, Miliband has chosen former Unite assistant General Secretary Ray Collins to lead the party’s trade union review. Back in 2009 Collins denied knowledge of the Red Rag* attack site that sought to smear Tory MPs. MODERATED Monkier
YOU MAY REPOST WHAT YOU WROTE AT THE END OF THIS COMMENT IF YOU CAN FIND A SATISFACTORY LINK FROM A RELIABLE SOURCE TO BACK IT UP
It seems likely to me that at least one set of official statistics (and possibly more than one) at present is seriously awry. If we are to believe what the statistics are telling us at present, productivity is bad and getting worse, yet employment is apparently continuing to increase and economic growth is increasing, all at a time of public sector job losses.
I suppose it's possible that all of these are true, but it seems inherently unlikely.
The political class at the bidding of the lobbyists that own them are building a plantation economy. It's disguised by the welfare system but when welfare can no longer take the strain and goes kaput this country will go directly to 3rd world economy, do not pass go, do not collect £200.
@Neil - yes, that was it. For some reason I was thinking Dandelion!
Anyway, I believe he was elected to Stockport (?) Metropolitan Borough Council last May, capturing a previously Tory held seat. He must have terrorized the bewildered voters into submission.
The IMF's revisions to 2013-2014 growth forecasts have already been mentioned on thread.
Here is an ordered table of the cumulative revisions for the two years for all countries and regions whose growth is forecast in the IMF report.
IMF World Economic Outlook - July 2013 Cumulative revisions to GDP growth forecasts 2013-2014 ----------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------
Countries and Regions uprated ----------------------------------------------------------- United Kingdom 0.3
Countries and Regions unchanged ----------------------------------------------------------- Canada 0.0 Central and Eastern Europe 0.0
Countries and Regions downrated ----------------------------------------------------------- France (0.1) Italy (0.1) ASEAN-5 (5) (0.1) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (0.1) Japan (0.2) Other Advanced Economies (2) (0.2) Advanced Economies (0.3) Euro Area (0.3) Excluding Russia (0.3) India (4) (0.3) World Output (1) (0.4) United States (0.4) Germany (0.4) Emerging Market and Developing Economies (3) (0.6) Developing Asia (0.6) Sub-Saharan Africa (0.6) Spain (0.7) Mexico (0.7) China (0.9) Latin America and the Caribbean (0.9) Commonwealth of Independent States (1.0) South Africa (1.2) Brazil (1.3) Russia (1.4)
Well done Boy George. You sit alone at the top of the class.
Sterling hit four-month lows against the dollar and the euro after weak factory output and trade data was seen as raising the risk of the Bank of England easing monetary policy in coming months.
Deliberate policy to talk down sterling and pump up a bubble though isn't it? At least it stopped the PB Tories going on about rebalancing the economy.
A Britain carried aloft by the march of the makers screeched the Boy Chancellor.
What happened?
Very simple, tim.
Bank of England policy makers led by Governor Mark Carney signaled last week they will keep U.K. interest rates at a record low.
Most Threadneedle Street watchers believe Carney wants the pound to fall to around $1.46 in the short to medium term.
If you want to interpret the fall in the pound's value as a signal of economic weakness, then please explain why Bloomberg reports this afternoon:
U.K. stocks advanced to a five-week high as a rally in mining companies and optimism that central banks will support growth outweighed a report showing that British manufacturing unexpectedly contracted.
Complicated isn't it? Best stick to fantasy defences to criminal investigations.
If Cerise is serious it'd be a logical continuation of New Labour's abandonment of their roots although as with New Labour they'd need to be sure there was an alternate source of funding available before they'd risk it.
The IMF's revisions to 2013-2014 growth forecasts have already been mentioned on thread.
Here is an ordered table of the cumulative revisions for the two years for all countries and regions whose growth is forecast in the IMF report.
IMF World Economic Outlook - July 2013 Cumulative revisions to GDP growth forecasts 2013-2014 ----------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------
Countries and Regions uprated ----------------------------------------------------------- United Kingdom 0.3
Countries and Regions unchanged ----------------------------------------------------------- Canada 0.0 Central and Eastern Europe 0.0
Countries and Regions downrated ----------------------------------------------------------- France (0.1) Italy (0.1) ASEAN-5 (5) (0.1) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (0.1) Japan (0.2) Other Advanced Economies (2) (0.2) Advanced Economies (0.3) Euro Area (0.3) Excluding Russia (0.3) India (4) (0.3) World Output (1) (0.4) United States (0.4) Germany (0.4) Emerging Market and Developing Economies (3) (0.6) Developing Asia (0.6) Sub-Saharan Africa (0.6) Spain (0.7) Mexico (0.7) China (0.9) Latin America and the Caribbean (0.9) Commonwealth of Independent States (1.0) South Africa (1.2) Brazil (1.3) Russia (1.4)
Well done Boy George. You sit alone at the top of the class.
At last a politician who promises and delivers.
What a depressing set of figures.
Indeed. And growth of 0.9% would be nothing to cheer about either (albeit, I suspect the actual figure will turn out to be a bit higher). By May 2015, it's likely that growth will have averaged about 1% a year since May 2010. That will certainly be better than the average figure for May 2005 to May 2010, but it will still leave incomes per head significantly below their immediate pre-recession peak.
It seems likely to me that at least one set of official statistics (and possibly more than one) at present is seriously awry. If we are to believe what the statistics are telling us at present, productivity is bad and getting worse, yet employment is apparently continuing to increase and economic growth is increasing, all at a time of public sector job losses.
I suppose it's possible that all of these are true, but it seems inherently unlikely.
The political class at the bidding of the lobbyists that own them are building a plantation economy. It's disguised by the welfare system but when welfare can no longer take the strain and goes kaput this country will go directly to 3rd world economy, do not pass go, do not collect £200.
I don't think this country is anywhere close to third world status, but the prospects for most people in coming years aren't good.
The IMF's revisions to 2013-2014 growth forecasts have already been mentioned on thread.
Here is an ordered table of the cumulative revisions for the two years for all countries and regions whose growth is forecast in the IMF report.
IMF World Economic Outlook - July 2013 Cumulative revisions to GDP growth forecasts 2013-2014 ----------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------
Countries and Regions uprated ----------------------------------------------------------- United Kingdom 0.3
Countries and Regions unchanged ----------------------------------------------------------- Canada 0.0 Central and Eastern Europe 0.0
Countries and Regions downrated ----------------------------------------------------------- France (0.1) Italy (0.1) ASEAN-5 (5) (0.1) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (0.1) Japan (0.2) Other Advanced Economies (2) (0.2) Advanced Economies (0.3) Euro Area (0.3) Excluding Russia (0.3) India (4) (0.3) World Output (1) (0.4) United States (0.4) Germany (0.4) Emerging Market and Developing Economies (3) (0.6) Developing Asia (0.6) Sub-Saharan Africa (0.6) Spain (0.7) Mexico (0.7) China (0.9) Latin America and the Caribbean (0.9) Commonwealth of Independent States (1.0) South Africa (1.2) Brazil (1.3) Russia (1.4)
Well done Boy George. You sit alone at the top of the class.
At last a politician who promises and delivers.
What a depressing set of figures.
Pong
Extracting out the cumulative revisions to the April 2013 forecasts does make the figures look more depressing than they really are.
What the IMF has done is to pare back the high growth rates of the BRICS countries (by large percentages) and adjust down the Eurozone forecasts (by small amounts).
Best to view the changes in context:
IMF World Economic Outlook - July 2013 Cumulative revisions to GDP growth forecasts 2013-2014 ------------------------------------------------------------ Year over Year Difference from April 2013 WEO Projections Published 011 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014
World Output (1) 3.9 3.1 3.1 3.8 –0.2 –0.2 Advanced Economies 1.7 1.2 1.2 2.1 –0.1 –0.2 United States 1.8 2.2 1.7 2.7 –0.2 –0.2 Euro Area 1.5 –0.6 –0.6 0.9 –0.2 –0.1 Germany 3.1 0.9 0.3 1.3 –0.3 –0.1 France 2.0 0.0 –0.2 0.8 –0.1 0.0 Italy 0.4 –2.4 –1.8 0.7 –0.3 0.2 Spain 0.4 –1.4 –1.6 0.0 0.0 –0.7 Japan 0.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 –0.3 United Kingdom 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 Canada 2.5 1.7 1.7 2.2 0.2 –0.2 Other Adv. Econs. (2) 3.3 1.8 2.3 3.3 –0.1 –0.1 Emerging Marketss (3) 6.2 4.9 5.0 5.4 –0.3 –0.3 Cent. & East. Europe 5.4 1.4 2.2 2.8 0.0 0.0 C.I.S. 4.8 3.4 2.8 3.6 –0.6 –0.4 Russia 4.3 3.4 2.5 3.3 –0.9 –0.5 Excluding Russia 6.1 3.3 3.5 4.3 0.0 –0.3 Developing Asia 7.8 6.5 6.9 7.0 –0.3 –0.3 China 9.3 7.8 7.8 7.7 –0.3 –0.6 India (4) 6.3 3.2 5.6 6.3 –0.2 –0.1 ASEAN-5 (5) 4.5 6.1 5.6 5.7 –0.3 0.2 Latin America & Carib. 4.6 3.0 3.0 3.4 –0.4 –0.5 Brazil 2.7 0.9 2.5 3.2 –0.5 –0.8 Mexico 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.2 –0.5 –0.2 Mid E, N Afr, Afg & Pak 3.9 4.4 3.1 3.7 –0.1 0.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.4 4.9 5.1 5.9 –0.4 –0.2 South Africa 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.9 –0.8 –0.4
Not much discussion of the ECHR decision in the Bamber case? The proposed union funding reforms must have been especially fascinating then.
For what it's worth, I regard it as an abuse of language to describe a whole life tariff by itself as inhuman or degrading treatment. Not that my opinion of the matter makes the slightest difference.
May 2012 had a single bank holiday. The second bank holiday was moved to June in honour of Her Majesty's Diamond Jubilee.
May 2013 had two bank holidays, the usual number.
Because the transfer of a bank holiday from May to June was an exceptional and "non-recurring" event the ONS made no applicable 'seasonal adjustments' to May 2013 on May 2012 growth figures.
Get your royal events in order and you will understand economics.
June 2013 will reverse out the May disappointment and see a surge in output led by Mothercare.
Mr Pickard thinks he knows why Len isn't as exercised as one may expect...
"Currently members pay money into their union’s political fund, with a small proportion of this – typically £3 a year – earmarked for Labour as an affiliation fee. The money is paid unless they actively “opt out” and is worth a total £8m a year for the party. Under the reforms members would for the first time have to “opt in” to pay the affiliation fee, meaning Labour could lose millions of pounds it currently receives directly.
Yet the overall political fund would maintain an “opt-out” system, meaning unions would still receive the same amounts of money – while passing less of it on to Labour. That means the unions will have extra millions which can be used by unions for policy campaigning and – crucially – for big donations to Labour, for example at election time. That will make it even more important for Labour MPs to keep the union general secretaries on side; the opposite of what you might have believed...
@antifrank The decision of the ECtHR in Bamber and others is thoroughly perverse. The court has simply invented the principle that a life sentence must be reducible as a part of article 3 ECHR. It's madness.
@Life_ina_market_town To this simple mind it makes no sense. If imprisonment by itself is not inhumane or degrading, and the actuality of never being released is not inhumane or degrading, I can't work out how knowing from the outset of a sentence that you will never be released is inhumane or degrading.
There's something compelling about tim when he's in the kind of mode he's in this afternoon. Absolutely nothing will be allowed to shake him off his narrative. Go tim!
I won't go into details now (it's almost as thrilling as differential front end grip), but next year gear ratios will be fixed for the whole season. I'll explain further (well, as much as my limited technical knowledge permits) in the racing mid-season review.
Not much discussion of the ECHR decision in the Bamber case? The proposed union funding reforms must have been especially fascinating then.
For what it's worth, I regard it as an abuse of language to describe a whole life tariff by itself as inhuman or degrading treatment. Not that my opinion of the matter makes the slightest difference.
I concur. Just watched in amazement at the ECHR judges being very ready to quote clause(s) of that particular legislation and seemingly totally ignore the human rights of the 49 people who had their lives abruptly taken from them and without their consent or free will.
The three murderers did have the choice to exercise their free will and chose multiple murder. This judgement is just nonsensical to everyone who has some common sense but apparently not to those who wish to dispute legal niceties.
@antifrank The decision of the ECtHR in Bamber and others is thoroughly perverse. The court has simply invented the principle that a life sentence must be reducible as a part of article 3 ECHR. It's madness.
required reading for those PB tories who have spent the last few days not understanding.
It is a big if, but if Miliband sees this through we will end up with the kind of Labour party I have been waiting all my adult life to see. I think that is very exciting.
Don't get your hopes up sweetie. I'd hate to see you disappointed
There's something compelling about tim when he's in the kind of mode he's in this afternoon. Absolutely nothing will be allowed to shake him off his narrative. Go tim!
There's something compelling about tim when he's in the kind of mode he's in this afternoon. Absolutely nothing will be allowed to shake him off his narrative. Go tim!
@antifrank The court's reasoning in summary is that while life-long imprisonment is not in principle inhuman and degrading, continuing imprisonment must be justified on legitimate penological grounds. A life sentence cannot be irreducible. Passing a whole life order withdraws the possibility of a review of whether imprisonment continues to be justified, and contrary to HMG's argument, section 30 of the Crime (Sentences) Act 1997, read in the light of the relevant Prison Service Instruction, affords no real opportunity for review. A whole-life order is de jure and de facto irreducible, and contrary to article 3 of the Convention.
A good day for Ed Miliband, rare to get praise from both Blair and McCluskey! I think most voters will think the opt-in of union members to the Labour Party perfectly reasonable
In Australia, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition and ALP tied at 50-50 on 2PP.
A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.
@antifrank The arguments made by the court may justified by penology. It is however clear that they have limited justification in the wording of the convention. It is a political judgment. The legal reasoning relating to the practice in Scotland, and s. 30 of the 1997 Act is also seriously deficient. One is left in the unfortunate position of agreeing with the Lord Chancellor. It is high time that the jurisdiction of the court over the United Kingdom is restricted, if not curtailed altogether.
Not much discussion of the ECHR decision in the Bamber case? The proposed union funding reforms must have been especially fascinating then.
For what it's worth, I regard it as an abuse of language to describe a whole life tariff by itself as inhuman or degrading treatment. Not that my opinion of the matter makes the slightest difference.
I concur. Just watched in amazement at the ECHR judges being very ready to quote clause(s) of that particular legislation and seemingly totally ignore the human rights of the 49 people who had their lives abruptly taken from them and without their consent or free will.
The three murderers did have the choice to exercise their free will and chose multiple murder. This judgement is just nonsensical to everyone who has some common sense but apparently not to those who wish to dispute legal niceties.
After more than a decade of principled conservative leadership that has helped make Texas’ healthy economy a beacon for job creation and the envy of the nation, Gov. Rick Perry today announced he will not seek reelection to a fourth full term in 2014. “Texas is home to a unique people with limitless inspiration and perseverance, and leading this state for the first part of the 21st century has been nothing less than extraordinary,” Gov. Perry said. “I remain excited about the future and the challenges ahead, and will spend the next 18 months working to create more Texas jobs, opportunity and innovation.” Since taking office in December 2000, Gov. Perry has worked to create a Texas of unlimited opportunity by focusing on creating jobs and preserving freedom, while investing in our people and our future. The governor’s leadership has made government more efficient and accountable to Texas taxpayers and kept the tax burden on job creators and families low, while making historic investments in infrastructure and education to meet the demands of our state’s fast growing population. “Our communities are thriving with unlimited potential, arts and culture, and a tremendous quality of life. Today, Texas is better positioned to take advantage of the opportunities of the 21st Century than any other state,” Gov. Perry said. “Thirty percent of the net new jobs created in America over the last decade have been created in Texas. This is a tribute to the entrepreneurial spirit of Texans. It’s the private sector that creates wealth and jobs. The public sector can only create the right environment to make this possible. In this regard, we have done our best work.” To prepare Texans to compete in the workforce of tomorrow, Gov. Perry has led the effort to raise educational standards in Texas public schools, and better prepare students to pursue college or enter the workforce. He has also worked to increase accountability, accessibility and affordability in higher education to ensure more Texans have the opportunity to earn a college degree. Additionally, Gov. Perry has proudly led the fight to protect traditional values in Texas. He remains a strong champion for life, calling lawmakers into a second special session to protect the unborn. He has signed pro-life legislation into law requiring parental consent when their minor daughter seeks an abortion, and that women who seek abortions must first be provided a sonogram to better understand the impact of their life-ending decision. He also championed a constitutional amendment defining marriage in Texas as a union between one man and one woman. “I make this announcement with the deepest sense of humility and appreciation for the trust the people of this state have given me, and knowing I will truly miss serving in this capacity – the greatest job in modern politics,” Gov. Perry said. “Our responsibility remains to the next generation of Texans, who will inherit a state of our making. We alone are responsible for the kind of Texas that will greet them. It is my hope that tomorrow’s leaders build on our legacy of opportunity so Texans born into any circumstances have a chance to experience the American Dream.”
@Life_ina_market_town To this simple mind it makes no sense. If imprisonment by itself is not inhumane or degrading, and the actuality of never being released is not inhumane or degrading, I can't work out how knowing from the outset of a sentence that you will never be released is inhumane or degrading.
required reading for those PB tories who have spent the last few days not understanding.
It is a big if, but if Miliband sees this through we will end up with the kind of Labour party I have been waiting all my adult life to see. I think that is very exciting.
Don't get your hopes up sweetie. I'd hate to see you disappointed
I'm not surprised you're in favour of Barons having all the power, you're in favour of Baronets having all the money.
required reading for those PB tories who have spent the last few days not understanding.
It is a big if, but if Miliband sees this through we will end up with the kind of Labour party I have been waiting all my adult life to see. I think that is very exciting.
Don't get your hopes up sweetie. I'd hate to see you disappointed
I'm not surprised you're in favour of Barons having all the power, you're in favour of Baronets having all the money.
Neither of those.
But don't let the facts stop you.
We can change the facts on the ground. By moving Croydon to the West Midlands
I notice that the PB Tories haven't grasped that Labour is proposing a £10k cap on donations, will the Tories agree to that do you think, they say they want to reduce the power of the union barons
I've been busy in Germany, so haven't looked at the details. Don't have a strong view whether £10K is the right number - sounds quite low - but a flat cap makes sense, provided that the union donations from the political levy are considered a single donation
All the other stuff with Red and the Unions is "fluff and nonsense" but the economic news is the reason that slowly but surely swing back is occurring.
Looks increasingly as though The Ed's are stuffed whatever happens...
Various people have been predicting some kind of collapse in Ed M's project almost ever since he appeared. It's not happening. Instead, the press are being made to look a bit silly.
Various people have been predicting some kind of collapse in Ed M's project almost ever since he appeared. It's not happening. Instead, the press are being made to look a bit silly.
WO..It's not happening..wait until the sharp eyes get into the fine print .. and some details would have been nice, in fact any details would have been nice..bit blank page stuff really.
As the police can't target the gang culture directly (because it doesn't officially exist) and as the gang culture (that doesn't officially exist) is very stabby this means there'll be lots of bodies unless the police trawl for knives i.e. stop and search.
If the political class don't want a high body count *and* don't want regular riots from stop and search then they (and most importantly the BBC) need to tell the truth for a change.
If the police can target the gang culture directly (and assuming it works) then they won't need to trawl for knives.
@Andy_JS I very much doubt whether the government will defy Strasbourg on this issue. Complying with the judgment will be relatively easy, legally and politically. Whole-life orders will remain on the statute book, but with the proviso that after serving twenty-five years of a whole-life term, the High Court will revisit the sentencing exercise.
Andy JS They should tell them to and get a real job The brits want the homicidal maniacs locked up forever..not let loose on the streets again.They had their chance and seriously blew it, ask the still grieving relatives.
I suspect they will make the easy changes to the legislation, but nevertheless pursue the issue. Demonstrating some sort of Eurosceptical spine in relation to the CoE is a good and relatively risk free way to bolster the image of being really serious about EU reform.
Comments
A link would be most helpful.
I know you do.
Me - I'd grab him warmly and affectionately by the throat. And I'd let go. Eventually.
I would feel guilty that said hug might divert tim from the important work of re-educating everyone who reads pbc.
FWIW I think he may also be right that Ed genuinely wants to move Labour in the direction of a more mass-market style party. It fits in with the feeble efforts he made earlier with 'Refounding Labour' [remember that?]
But that isn't the point - it's the quarter-baked nature of the proposals, the absurd timing (would any sane leader try to start this two years before the GE??? He should have started two years ago if he really meant it), the fact that he clearly hasn't squared it with the key stakeholders, the abstract nature of the initiative, the lack of detail, the fact that he hasn't actually addressed today's selection and policy issues, etc etc.
He so needs that hug.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE95900820130709
Go to Neil and get that hug.
You ARE awful but I like you.
I'd guess that being seen to change the relationship with unions has greater electoral importance than actually changing the relationship with unions, which suggests that this is a decent way to get on with the core business of winning an election.
And how is he going to respond to Nick Clegg's selfless and generous offer to help him implement what he claims to want?
That's a hospital pass if ever I saw one. Who blabbled that Whitty turned it down I wonder.
And the IMF have just upgraded us as one of only three countries to improve growth whilst the EUzone falls even further behind... where is Ed Balls?
'It is a big if, but if Miliband sees this through we will end up with the kind of Labour party I have been waiting all my adult life to see. I think that is very exciting'
You may have a very long wait,no details,no timeline,no mechanism.
And of course we had all the stuff about second jobs when Brown was PM, that of course happened.
'planned is too strong a word – proposals won’t happen before the next election'
''Has anyone been able to define Eds leaderhip qualities we were promised would be on display in the speech..secong laugh of the day'
Lets just call it awesome.
Dave will undoubtedly taunt Ed on the IMF upgrade and will somehow (contrived naturally) encompass today's awesome oration (copyright, tim).
It will be interesting to see if Ed goes on the attack or what his riposte will be to either. Or will he try and ignore altogether?
Of course the pre-prepared sound-bites on both sides have already been crafted (but don't leave 'em in the khazi this time).
But who emerges victorious tomorrow has somewhat more import than usual in setting the narrative.
Whilst I like the general picture (excepting the ban on second jobs) there does seem to be a distinct lack of detail.
'Just catching up with EdM's afternoon - and Houston seems to have a problem - Lord Whitty turned the job down as it was 'unworkable' and now Mr Collins previously Deputy Gen Sec of Unite is going to be in charge of making it happen?'
Reassuring such an impartial individual is in charge of making it happen.
That was deliberate - I knew someone would bite. You could be in line for a hug.
Funny you should mention that book, I reread it recently but this time whenever Kenneth Widmerpool was mentioned I couldnt help picturing him as George Osborne. Do I need to give myself a hug?
Cruddas policy put back in the box for another 12months.
Just need McBride and Draper for a perfect set.
'Almost farcically, Miliband has chosen former Unite assistant General Secretary Ray Collins to lead the party’s trade union review. Back in 2009 Collins denied knowledge of the Red Rag* attack site that sought to smear Tory MPs.
MODERATED
The IMF's revisions to 2013-2014 growth forecasts have already been mentioned on thread.
Here is an ordered table of the cumulative revisions for the two years for all countries and regions whose growth is forecast in the IMF report. Well done Boy George. You sit alone at the top of the class.
At last a politician who promises and delivers.
The *real* good news of the day is Ireland's qualification for the World Cup after a dramatic last ball 6 from the Netherlands to secure a draw in the week's big cricket fixture.
I should have qualified my statement with "excepting village cricket results"!
Does this mean we lose Morgan?
A sleazy discredited ex PM, a weak, defeated contender and ex MP and a Union Baron who has nO intention of supporting it . The Three Stooges
Is that your way of promising you wont nick any more of our players?
He is much missed. I was trying to remember his change of moniker a couple of days ago.
It was Bretonnia or something like that? The style was, er, unmistakeable is the best way I could put it. I cant remember how long he has been gone.
http://www.gmb.org.uk/newsroom/gmb-ballot-on-political-fund
Anyway, I believe he was elected to Stockport (?) Metropolitan Borough Council last May, capturing a previously Tory held seat. He must have terrorized the bewildered voters into submission.
Bank of England policy makers led by Governor Mark Carney signaled last week they will keep U.K. interest rates at a record low.
Most Threadneedle Street watchers believe Carney wants the pound to fall to around $1.46 in the short to medium term.
If you want to interpret the fall in the pound's value as a signal of economic weakness, then please explain why Bloomberg reports this afternoon:
U.K. stocks advanced to a five-week high as a rally in mining companies and optimism that central banks will support growth outweighed a report showing that British manufacturing unexpectedly contracted.
Complicated isn't it? Best stick to fantasy defences to criminal investigations.
Extracting out the cumulative revisions to the April 2013 forecasts does make the figures look more depressing than they really are.
What the IMF has done is to pare back the high growth rates of the BRICS countries (by large percentages) and adjust down the Eurozone forecasts (by small amounts).
Best to view the changes in context:
I always regarded him as Fluffy's twin sister.
For what it's worth, I regard it as an abuse of language to describe a whole life tariff by itself as inhuman or degrading treatment. Not that my opinion of the matter makes the slightest difference.
May 2012 had a single bank holiday. The second bank holiday was moved to June in honour of Her Majesty's Diamond Jubilee.
May 2013 had two bank holidays, the usual number.
Because the transfer of a bank holiday from May to June was an exceptional and "non-recurring" event the ONS made no applicable 'seasonal adjustments' to May 2013 on May 2012 growth figures.
Get your royal events in order and you will understand economics.
June 2013 will reverse out the May disappointment and see a surge in output led by Mothercare.
"Currently members pay money into their union’s political fund, with a small proportion of this – typically £3 a year – earmarked for Labour as an affiliation fee. The money is paid unless they actively “opt out” and is worth a total £8m a year for the party. Under the reforms members would for the first time have to “opt in” to pay the affiliation fee, meaning Labour could lose millions of pounds it currently receives directly.
Yet the overall political fund would maintain an “opt-out” system, meaning unions would still receive the same amounts of money – while passing less of it on to Labour. That means the unions will have extra millions which can be used by unions for policy campaigning and – crucially – for big donations to Labour, for example at election time. That will make it even more important for Labour MPs to keep the union general secretaries on side; the opposite of what you might have believed...
At present the unions have a half of votes at annual conference and a third of those for leadership contests. Miliband said merely that this would be considered in the Ray Collins review... http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2013/07/how-the-miliband-reforms-may-given-even-more-power-to-the-unions/
The decision of the ECtHR in Bamber and others is thoroughly perverse. The court has simply invented the principle that a life sentence must be reducible as a part of article 3 ECHR. It's madness.
http://www.espn.co.uk/fia/motorsport/story/115877.html
*chortle*
I won't go into details now (it's almost as thrilling as differential front end grip), but next year gear ratios will be fixed for the whole season. I'll explain further (well, as much as my limited technical knowledge permits) in the racing mid-season review.
I concur. Just watched in amazement at the ECHR judges being very ready to quote clause(s) of that particular legislation and seemingly totally ignore the human rights of the 49 people who had their lives abruptly taken from them and without their consent or free will.
The three murderers did have the choice to exercise their free will and chose multiple murder. This judgement is just nonsensical to everyone who has some common sense but apparently not to those who wish to dispute legal niceties.
After all, we are soon to allow same sex marriage.
Too many acorns in the feed trough.
The court's reasoning in summary is that while life-long imprisonment is not in principle inhuman and degrading, continuing imprisonment must be justified on legitimate penological grounds. A life sentence cannot be irreducible. Passing a whole life order withdraws the possibility of a review of whether imprisonment continues to be justified, and contrary to HMG's argument, section 30 of the Crime (Sentences) Act 1997, read in the light of the relevant Prison Service Instruction, affords no real opportunity for review. A whole-life order is de jure and de facto irreducible, and contrary to article 3 of the Convention.
Great to have a PM with his finger on the pulse of the nation.
Ed Miliband, by contrast, thinks victory is only possible if changes are made to the rules of cricket.
A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.
The arguments made by the court may justified by penology. It is however clear that they have limited justification in the wording of the convention. It is a political judgment. The legal reasoning relating to the practice in Scotland, and s. 30 of the 1997 Act is also seriously deficient. One is left in the unfortunate position of agreeing with the Lord Chancellor. It is high time that the jurisdiction of the court over the United Kingdom is restricted, if not curtailed altogether.
After more than a decade of principled conservative leadership that has helped make Texas’ healthy economy a beacon for job creation and the envy of the nation, Gov. Rick Perry today announced he will not seek reelection to a fourth full term in 2014.
“Texas is home to a unique people with limitless inspiration and perseverance, and leading this state for the first part of the 21st century has been nothing less than extraordinary,” Gov. Perry said. “I remain excited about the future and the challenges ahead, and will spend the next 18 months working to create more Texas jobs, opportunity and innovation.”
Since taking office in December 2000, Gov. Perry has worked to create a Texas of unlimited opportunity by focusing on creating jobs and preserving freedom, while investing in our people and our future. The governor’s leadership has made government more efficient and accountable to Texas taxpayers and kept the tax burden on job creators and families low, while making historic investments in infrastructure and education to meet the demands of our state’s fast growing population.
“Our communities are thriving with unlimited potential, arts and culture, and a tremendous quality of life. Today, Texas is better positioned to take advantage of the opportunities of the 21st Century than any other state,” Gov. Perry said. “Thirty percent of the net new jobs created in America over the last decade have been created in Texas. This is a tribute to the entrepreneurial spirit of Texans. It’s the private sector that creates wealth and jobs. The public sector can only create the right environment to make this possible. In this regard, we have done our best work.”
To prepare Texans to compete in the workforce of tomorrow, Gov. Perry has led the effort to raise educational standards in Texas public schools, and better prepare students to pursue college or enter the workforce. He has also worked to increase accountability, accessibility and affordability in higher education to ensure more Texans have the opportunity to earn a college degree.
Additionally, Gov. Perry has proudly led the fight to protect traditional values in Texas. He remains a strong champion for life, calling lawmakers into a second special session to protect the unborn. He has signed pro-life legislation into law requiring parental consent when their minor daughter seeks an abortion, and that women who seek abortions must first be provided a sonogram to better understand the impact of their life-ending decision. He also championed a constitutional amendment defining marriage in Texas as a union between one man and one woman.
“I make this announcement with the deepest sense of humility and appreciation for the trust the people of this state have given me, and knowing I will truly miss serving in this capacity – the greatest job in modern politics,” Gov. Perry said. “Our responsibility remains to the next generation of Texans, who will inherit a state of our making. We alone are responsible for the kind of Texas that will greet them. It is my hope that tomorrow’s leaders build on our legacy of opportunity so Texans born into any circumstances have a chance to experience the American Dream.”
*Smiles at fond memories of Pandora's box*
But don't let the facts stop you.
I've been busy in Germany, so haven't looked at the details. Don't have a strong view whether £10K is the right number - sounds quite low - but a flat cap makes sense, provided that the union donations from the political levy are considered a single donation
All the other stuff with Red and the Unions is "fluff and nonsense" but the economic news is the reason that slowly but surely swing back is occurring.
Looks increasingly as though The Ed's are stuffed whatever happens...
They will certainly do so because they know that is the position the vast majority of British people support.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358583/A-quarter-police-stop-searches-illegal-250-000-people-stopped-officers-sticking-rules.html
The problem with that is there is a gang culture which the BBC and political class won't admit exists, for example.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2334488/Inside-dark-world-Woolwich-Boys-The-300-strong-gang-Somalis-linked-Rigby-murder-suspect-targeted-terror-groups-looking-jihadists-future.html
As the police can't target the gang culture directly (because it doesn't officially exist) and as the gang culture (that doesn't officially exist) is very stabby this means there'll be lots of bodies unless the police trawl for knives i.e. stop and search.
If the political class don't want a high body count *and* don't want regular riots from stop and search then they (and most importantly the BBC) need to tell the truth for a change.
If the police can target the gang culture directly (and assuming it works) then they won't need to trawl for knives.
I very much doubt whether the government will defy Strasbourg on this issue. Complying with the judgment will be relatively easy, legally and politically. Whole-life orders will remain on the statute book, but with the proviso that after serving twenty-five years of a whole-life term, the High Court will revisit the sentencing exercise.
pre-New Labour, post- Kinnock Labour.
Has it come asunder, as legions of tories, press columnists and some on the hard left, have been continually predicting for three years ? No.
I suspect they will make the easy changes to the legislation, but nevertheless pursue the issue. Demonstrating some sort of Eurosceptical spine in relation to the CoE is a good and relatively risk free way to bolster the image of being really serious about EU reform.
A vacuum.
Which is being filled by the Len agenda.