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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on WH2016 & Witney plus prospects for a “LD fightback”- all looked at in latest PB/Polling Matters TV Show/ Podcast
With the first WH2016 TV debate due to take place next Monday Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley), Matthew Shaddick (@Shadsy) of Ladbrokes, and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi ) look at where the race stands and what the mass of polling is suggesting. In the UK the team look at the LDs who’ve just finished their conference and try to assess the chances of a fightback.
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Gandhi must fall? What a load of total and utter tosh.
For instance, Churchill in Parliament Square because of his advocacy of bombing the Kurds in the 20s/30s, or his scepticism towards new Commonwealth immigration after the war.
emphasis added
Thanks - excellent read.
"From the beginning, the Remain camp found it difficult to make a positive case for staying in Europe.
Cooper remembers asking several key figures in the campaign to name the five most powerful facts showing the UK was better off staying in. ‘They struggled to come up with any,’ he recalls."
And then some prat timetabled the Referendum for a couple of weeks after the immigration numbers were to be released.
Gongs all round!
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3801172/From-cocky-jokes-calamity-Dave-s-big-gamble-blew-face-Told-newly-updated-biography-inside-story-Cameron-s-downfall-LORD-ASHCROFT-ISABEL-OAKESHOTT.html#ixzz4KyCfyPPI
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Dead thug #KeithLamontScott was previously charged with carrying a concealed weapon, and assault with a deadly weapon. #CharlotteProtests
Life goals https://t.co/ZM5ZeRtnbd
Back on Brexit, eh?
Interesting news from Lloyds. They've been doing some planning.
Depending on outcomes they might need one office in the EU, or 27. Staff will be recruited locally or sent to those offices. Cost might be up to 4% of revenue/profit (didn't hear which) but households unlikely to notice in terms of premia (!).
Exactly corresponds with my view that we will be in an imperceptibly worse position than previously. But a worse position nevertheless.
Of course we might get passporting, that said.
Caesar committed a holocaust [I use the precise word TA Dodge uses, writing around 1900], killing half a million Germanian tribesmen who were trying to negotiate a peace deal.
Alexander pacified a rebellion in Bactria and Sogdiana (modern day Afghanistan, roughly) by killing most of the people there.
Imposing modern moral and legal norms on the past is drunken madness, the sort of tosh that leads people to beg for money because their ancestors got the rough end of the stick. Perhaps I should pay myself reparations, as I have Viking, Saxon and Celtic ancestors.
Only numpties could find something contentious about them.
"Very few MPs actually knocked on doors in the referendum. Hence the shock at the result."
Virtue-signalling's a handy phrase for those prancing about on the horse of self-righteousness, parading their own moral superiority. It's also useful for explaining the shy Conservative vote, as people generally were wary of expressing themselves openly for fear of being castigated.
In exchange, EIRE will cooperate on customs and migration.
I think that PC has had its day and a new normal will emerge. Maybe Brexit has burst a bit of a bubble and we can return to having open unbounded discussions about things without one side feeling its OK to drown out the other.
I hope you're right.
An example on here are the 'crime corespondents'.
There's a simpering news lady on Sky who's always trying to handwring/be conciliatory/yummy and I find her really annoying. Not looking forward to life after Eamonn.
Let's take back control and make Saint Edmund our patron saint once more.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/corbyn-crumbles-in-face-of-mumsnet-cookie-quiz-vgvwqpgc5
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3799361/SARAH-VINE-Lorraine-Kelly-accused-body-shaming-Gemma-Arterton-desperate-offence.html
http://labourlist.org/2016/09/mcdonnell-the-establishment-is-out-to-get-us/
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/sep/09/modern-morality-is-just-exhibitionism
....all from the past couple of weeks......
It is fair to say that being blinkered and self-righteous isn't the sole preserve of one part of society, but it's undeniable that more of it happens on the left than right, simply because the left is more emotional [which is also, probably, why it's better at using language and why it's often considered more acceptable to have leftwing views].
On the old EU business, there are dicks on both sides.
Edited extra bit: also, the left are more likely than the right to buy into both identity politics and internationalism over national interests.
Boudicca burned down London, yet has her statue outside the Commons. OK she burned down Colchester too, making space for the ring road and shopping centre, but that is hardly much by way of mitigation.
Mr. B2, be fair. London was mostly Roman. Those foreigners had invaded our safe space. That's even worse than a micro-aggression.
As for the left being more emotional, just look at the staunch Europhobes.
If there is a difference, then it might be that the left-wingers are more likely to take to the streets and be noisy. That might be because they don't have jobs to go to unlike the rest of us
Ooops, that's me being blinekred and self righteous. Hypocritical as well, as I'm not working.
I'd argue that the problem vis-a-vis right and left is that the right is happier to see the all the guilty condemned if that means some innocents being caught, and the left is happier to see all the innocent untroubled if that means some guilty chaps getting a free ride.
[I use guilt/innocence broadly, of course].
We see it with Corbyn, taken to a fine degree. Those who have a differing view aren't merely of a varying opinion, by virtue of not agreeing with the most left of perspectives, they're inherently wicked. Not merely wrong, but bad.
'Free speech under attack' - The Times on 'an alien' turn in political discourse in the Labour Party, 35 years ago today. https://t.co/bK3qqDkVRr
I didn't say it didn't appear elsewhere on the internet, I said I had never heard it in speech. It's awful internet patois - not English. The new "colour me..." - please give over.
Trump is helped by strong support from working-class white voters, while Clinton is hurt by a lackluster performance among younger voters and women.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/21/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-in-battlegrounds-nevada-n-carolina-ohio.html
We also see it about the EU: some will hear no bad about it, and some no good. As such, the debate gets polarised by ridiculous claims where the truth often lies in the middle ground.
In some ways, Corbyn's ascendance might be a direct reaction to UKIP: as some have turned to the middle- and far-right, so some on the left have moved far to the left. As such, British politics' see-saw remains, as ever, well-balanced.
It's the difference between doing wrong and being wrong.
REMAIN 48%
Money talks.
virtue-signalling
Also plays into trying to close down 'wrong speech' and having such stupid finickity terms that Benedict Cumberbatch, not renowned for being a raging right winger, apologised profusely after saying 'coloured person' rather than 'person of colour'.
Mr. Jessop, jein. An issue with immigration/multi-culturalism is that sensitivity over it has led in the recent past to multiple claims [eventually proven correct] of sexual molestation of children simply not being investigated, and those against large scale migration being attacked as racist. So, right wingers being strident over such things have an understandable reaction to that.
Whilst not in favour of the EU, I agree it's not wholly black or white, though I think it's mostly horrendous, and the economic gains [if there are any] more than off-set by loss of democratic accountability and freedom to determine our own course.
I bit my tongue. Largely.
Definite swing toward Hillary being picked up there.
The right believes the left have bad ideas
Gross generalisation of course etc. etc. but a nugget of truth in there....
In Wales, every Welsh Labour seat voted Leave, except for Cardiff.
The Remain areas were Ceredigion (LibDem), Monmouthshire/Vale of Glamorgan (both Tory),
Arfon/Dwyfor Meirionnydd (both PC).
Bassetlaw is much more typical of the rest of England & Wales than the London constituency of Jobabob Central.
The EU created many more losers than winners. And most of the losers were already poor.
As to what the much smaller numbers of Conservative, Liberal Democrat, UKIP and Green voters did, I've no way of knowing and frankly it doesn't matter but there's evidence that other parties were split as well. It's one of those ridiculous myths (like the 1997 election being all about Conservatives staying at home) that become accepted if not challenged quickly.
As to whether the 2016 Referendum will have the same profound consequences that the 1975 Referendum did for Labour, that remains to be seen. As to whether the 2016 Referendum is the 21st century equivalent of tariff reform for the Conservatives, that also remains to be seen.
Three months on and a lot of people seem to have decided the whole event is history - far from it, the ramifications of June 23rd have barely started.
@BBCBreaking: UK TV cook Mary Berry quits Great British Bake Off, saying she will stay with the BBC out of "loyalty" bbc.in/2cSTMQG
It's the end of the world as we know it.
Some of the reaction to the awful cases in Rotherham, Oxford et al has been racist, especially when people extend what happened to broad groups. Not all of it, of course, but there has been a heavy undercurrent of racism. Oddly, we do not see such reactions when it is the churches, or white people performing abuses. Or even when it is Muslim girls being abused - it is only the white girls that matter (tm).
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/when-corbyn-triumphs-labours-real-civil-war-will-begin/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20160924_Weekly_Highlights_39_NON-SUBS
LOL. You really need to get out more.
Virtue Signalling: Saying you love or hate something to show off what a virtuous person you are, instead of actually trying to fix the problem. (Urban Dictionary)
Sanctimonious: Holier-than-thou: Making an exaggerated show of holiness or moral superiority. ibid.
Mr. Jessop, I feel that's an unfair view. Church abuse tends to be white on white. The Rotherham abuse (incidentally, a third of victims were boys) was almost exclusively Pakistani men on whites, some of whom were taunted as 'kaffirs'. The racial aspect only applies in one instance.
When a Polish man was recently murdered there was an outcry about racism, before it emerged the gang that apparently did it is of mixed race. The outcry over Rotherham took decades of ignored pleas for help. The former was mistaken, it seems, the latter was not.
https://youtu.be/SXfym3Mf5-A
If someone has misfortune, let them be aided.
You may, of course, have witnessed it without realising.....or indeed done it yourself....
Ever wore a 'Never Kissed a Tory' badge?