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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Ed prepares to take on the unions the CON share moves to

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Ed prepares to take on the unions the CON share moves to six month high with YouGov

It’s only one poll and the changes are all within the margin of error but the Tories will take a lot of comfort from the first YouGov poll of the week which has its share at 34% – only three down on what it achieved at GE2010.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The approval at -25 shows a sharp movement from -32. Must the first time it has been in the -20s for ages.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    It has been said by Mike many many times and bears repeating that Europe is a non issue. Or, rather, it mainly only matters to a certain demographic of over 60's. For the rest of the voting public we couldn't really care. We travel widely, we interact and we celebrate our identity without being xenophobic about it. UKIP will swipe a significant portion of the Conservative vote share, but that is all they will do.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    With the Lib Dems stubbornly around 10% it's clear the Tories will need to be around 40% to get an overall majority. It's difficult to see that happening. Just too much history. Their only small chance must be an independent Scotland taking out 40 odd labour seats.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    The Tory tactic looks to be very focused on bringing home the UKIP vote. They seem to have given up on trying to attract wavering LD and Labour voters. It's a high risk strategy, but probably the one that gives them the best chance to maximise their turnout in 2015. To have any chance of winning, though, they need that Labour vote to dip below 35%.

    I wonder if it is at this stage of the cycle that certainty to vote figures get more important.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The yg polls are on the move its a clear pattern now.

    Where art thou ICM ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Apparently Labour have briefed the Times that the levy opt in will be voluntary
    .

    Squibby if true.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Lots of union members will learn today that they didn't need to pay a levy to the Labour Party for years. Twitter response to SKY News indicates many had been told they couldn't opt out if they chose to. Some have said the implication has always been it is compulsory in the eyes of their union officials. So let Bland bring forward his reforms and then we can see just how few members of the union movement really do support the Labour Party.

    Time for the government to outlaw the state subsidy of unions too.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Full panic mode in Cheshire..divert..divert..divert.
  • FPT
    I was a member of USDAW when I worked at a Tesco DC.
    The only reason I recall anyone ever saying they joined was for access to legal advice in the event of an accident etc.
    Ironically the people I know that did have accidents were thoroughly cheesed off with the legal advice as it was invariably to accept the first offer.
    Most held out and got a higher offer, the ones that accepted were even more annoyed when they discovered that they could have got a higher award by ignoring the advice.

    Getting out of the political levy was a different matter entirely, it took two years and only after I threatened legal action, loudly proclaiming to the regional organiser that I was a Thatcherite
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    tim said:

    Labour share at 40 with a crappy weeks headlines is just fine.
    Now it looks like the Tories will discover what leadership looks like, as opposed to caving in to your party's nutters and pandering to UKIP.

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton
    Miliband's gamble on union funding could cost Labour millions - but it is one he had to take, my blog: http://bit.ly/12exl9d

    You can imagine that if Theresa May led the Tories they might have similar strong leadership, but for now they are stuck with a man who panders to the right and knows in his heart he's wrong.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes
    Cameron letter shows he's clearly angry at impact of (his own) net migration cap; wants to soften visa rules http://thetim.es/13t2kDE

    I suspect that over the medium term a Labour party that has looser ties to the unions will begin to attract decent levels of funding from other sources. It should help the party open up to new ideas and ways of viewing the world. We may also see a sharper light turned onto the way in whch the Tories get their wedge. Absolute transparency in funding should be one thing that Miliband calls for.

    This is potentially a very exciting day for the Labour party: taking a short term hit would be well worth it if longer term it becomes more broadly reflective of the way the British think. But we shall have to see the detail. If Miliband does not deliver then I suspect there will be serious carnage and he will have written his own death sentence.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited July 2013
    The Tories need to reverse the still astonishingly high economic feel-awful factor (I'm amazed that they are only 6-8% behind given the level of pessimism). The GDP figures on July 25th may engender a mood of nascent "macro" recovery, a necessary but not sufficient condition for individual families to regain a measure of confidence .

    So, assuming the deficit also declines more rapidly than currently forecast through growth, additional tax revenue and Lloyds TSB sell-off (look at the continuing rise in their share price) and I reckon Osborne may have a little something or two in the 2014 budget.....to seep through long enough for 2015.

    Now THAT'S what will prompt any swing from floating voters currently weakly supporting Labour and LibDems.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,375

    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.

    Saddo, you crying because he was not grovelling and flying the Butchers Apron or because he was Scottish. Get a life
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    From a process POV - surely EdM can't force the unions to do anything unless its changed by law - using say the Lobbying Bill that's currently going through.

    Without that - surely the unions can continue to take dues and pass them to whoever their own rule book says - or not as they see fit.

    Perhaps someone can shed some expert light on this.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's a good poll for both main parties, and shows how polarising debates benefit both.
  • Max_EdinburghMax_Edinburgh Posts: 347
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    Labour share at 40 with a crappy weeks headlines is just fine.
    Now it looks like the Tories will discover what leadership looks like, as opposed to caving in to your party's nutters and pandering to UKIP.

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton
    Miliband's gamble on union funding could cost Labour millions - but it is one he had to take, my blog: http://bit.ly/12exl9d

    You can imagine that if Theresa May led the Tories they might have similar strong leadership, but for now they are stuck with a man who panders to the right and knows in his heart he's wrong.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes
    Cameron letter shows he's clearly angry at impact of (his own) net migration cap; wants to soften visa rules http://thetim.es/13t2kDE

    Has it ocurred to you that a real leader wouldn't have waited until the Falkirk shambles to address the issue?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @Max - It's only 7.20 and already I'm in one of my "don't be beastly to tim, poor lamb he's not in good shape" moods. Do you get them too?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see that the new PPC that may prove to be another issue is probably Tamworth if the Times has it right. Sally from BBC East thinks there is also one in Derbyshire [that's the one with the bullying allegations].

    "Internal documents produced by the GMB union suggest that Unite was not the only union that sought to influence candidate selections. A report given to the GMB’s annual congress points to Peterborough and Tamworth as successful examples of campaigns to ensure that trade unionists were chosen to run for Westminster. Emma Lewell-Buck, who won a by-election in David Miliband’s former seat of South Shields, is cited as another triumph. " Paywall
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    edited July 2013
    And in the meantime 150+ union controlled/sponsored Labour MPs will be wondering who will fund their lifestyles, pay for their constituency offices etc if unions withdraw funding from CLPs and MPs constituency activities.

    Everyone knows where Tory funding comes from. The media has written constantly about it for years.



    I suspect that over the medium term a Labour party that has looser ties to the unions will begin to attract decent levels of funding from other sources. It should help the party open up to new ideas and ways of viewing the world. We may also see a sharper light turned onto the way in whch the Tories get their wedge. Absolute transparency in funding should be one thing that Miliband calls for.

    This is potentially a very exciting day for the Labour party: taking a short term hit would be well worth it if longer term it becomes more broadly reflective of the way the British think. But we shall have to see the detail. If Miliband does not deliver then I suspect there will be serious carnage and he will have written his own death sentence.


  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Not sure what happened to the quotes but the final 2 paragraphs in my posting below were a quote from SO below.
  • JohnO said:

    @Max - It's only 7.20 and already I'm in one of my "don't be beastly to tim, poor lamb he's not in good shape" moods. Do you get them too?

    I do John. Usually when I see further proof of the improving UK economy, it does seem to upset him so. As bit by bit and piece by piece it brings us closer to the day when tim will graciously admit that the fop (as the chancellor is known throughout the country) was right.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    tim said:

    Labour share at 40 with a crappy weeks headlines is just fine.
    Now it looks like the Tories will discover what leadership looks like, as opposed to caving in to your party's nutters and pandering to UKIP.

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton
    Miliband's gamble on union funding could cost Labour millions - but it is one he had to take, my blog: http://bit.ly/12exl9d

    You can imagine that if Theresa May led the Tories they might have similar strong leadership, but for now they are stuck with a man who panders to the right and knows in his heart he's wrong.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes
    Cameron letter shows he's clearly angry at impact of (his own) net migration cap; wants to soften visa rules http://thetim.es/13t2kDE

    I suspect that over the medium term a Labour party that has looser ties to the unions will begin to attract decent levels of funding from other sources. It should help the party open up to new ideas and ways of viewing the world. We may also see a sharper light turned onto the way in whch the Tories get their wedge. Absolute transparency in funding should be one thing that Miliband calls for.

    This is potentially a very exciting day for the Labour party: taking a short term hit would be well worth it if longer term it becomes more broadly reflective of the way the British think. But we shall have to see the detail. If Miliband does not deliver then I suspect there will be serious carnage and he will have written his own death sentence.
    It's odd, given how often we agree, that you have such a negative perception of the Tories, and I despair of Labour ever developing into more than a vehicle for factional interests
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Some implications as noted by Ms Sylvester http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/rachelsylvester/article3811611.ece

    "...In future, individual trade unionists will have to tick a box to affiliate and they will then become full party members in their own right. Labour headquarters will have their names and addresses and be able to communicate with them directly, rather than only through their unions (which currently refuse to hand databases on to the party). And, critically, the people who have joined through a trade union will have the same rights as any other Labour Party member...It also raises questions about leadership elections and party conference votes.

    Historically, the trade unions have had a proportion of such votes, through an electoral college. If individual trade unionists are to become individual Labour Party members, then the logical next step is surely the introduction of a one-member one-vote system, otherwise there will effectively be two classes of member whose views carry different weight. That would mean the end of the leadership contest rules under which Mr Miliband beat his brother David to the Labour leadership, with the help of Unite.

    Although the Labour leader may be reluctant to spell out the full implications immediately, party sources confirm that wider reform is on the cards. The link between Labour and the unions will be retained but the general secretaries such as Len McCluskey will be neutered. The barons’ allies on Labour’s ruling body — the National Executive Committee — will hate it. Mr Miliband would be sensible to hold a ballot of all party members to endorse his blueprint for reform and see them off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @tim MORI are a bit dim if they think that teenage pregnancies stop at 16.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    "Now it looks like the Tories will discover what leadership looks like"
    I love to start the day with a good laugh ... well done
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    edited July 2013
    Good morning, everyone.

    Bit sleepy, so not fully up on the proposals Miliband's putting forward.

    They sound sensible, from what I've seen.

    Edited extra bit: that said, would they actually prevent what's alleged to have occurred in Falkirk?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    @Max - It's only 7.20 and already I'm in one of my "don't be beastly to tim, poor lamb he's not in good shape" moods. Do you get them too?

    No

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @tim If MORI are trying to myth-bust, they should not be putting out stupid statements. It's a good example of the inadequacies of twitter.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.

    Saddo, you crying because he was not grovelling and flying the Butchers Apron or because he was Scottish. Get a life
    malcolmg's claims to be a Rangers supporter and not to drink alcohol before noon are becoming untenable.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Whilst I welcome the notion of opt-in and a move towards using primaries - until we have a timetable, even on a fag packet - this is nothing but words.

    St Emilion of Unite has already made his view that opt-in is 'unworkable' - not very surprising given that he's using that money to strongarm his way to parly power. I can't see him giving in easily and he's just been re-elected IIRC so isn't going anywhere else soon.

    The GMB have also been playing the same game according to the Times. What's in it for the unions to play ball with EdM here?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway "under 16" is exactly one more character than "teenage". By deleting the space between 0.6 and % they could have been accurate instead of stupid. I'm marking MORI as dim.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    edited July 2013
    All good fun over at the Romford Conservatives.

    http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/politics/romford_conservatives_at_war_as_party_drops_top_havering_councillors_1_2265665

    "“I have raised very serious concerns about Romford Conservative Association with the national Conservative Party and look forward hearing how the national party will investigate them.“
    "
    It’s a stitch-up. People who now are in positions within the Romford association are exacting revenge for what they consider to be past slurs”

    “After a very difficult year for me in which I have continued to carry out my council duties despite my treatment [for cancer], I was devastated to be dealt with in this way.”

    "One member of the local government committee lied to residents about the reasons for Cllr Lynden Thorpe and Cllr Eric Munday’s omission from the candidate lists"

    “The selection process that has taken place was a sham,”

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I noticed last night that HMG have cleared a day next week for HoC debate but aren't saying what its for - could it be this? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10167889/Ed-Miliband-gambles-with-9-million-in-Labour-funds-to-reign-in-unions.html

    " Senior figures in the Labour party believe the reforms may take “years” to introduce and there is no guarantee that they will be in place in time for the next general election in 2015.

    Labour is also expected to decline an offer from Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, to help write a new law to enforce the changes to Labour’s trade union links.

    In the Commons on Tuesday, Mr Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, is expected to offer Mr Miliband the chance to suggest that a Bill introducing a statutory register of lobbyists could be rewritten to include an “opt-in” system for payments from trade union affiliations..."
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    I'd vote for this chappy - he pens some very sensible and brave stuff. Atul is Ed of Labour Uncut and one of the few sites that actively challenge Labour about themselves - he has some great writers, Jonathon is on of them. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/07/08/unites-confused-kulturkampf/#more-16850

    "I don’t feel that any superior virtue or wisdom attaches to me through membership of the squeezed middle. We all have our strengths and weaknesses, whatever our class. While class membership seems to me more perplexing than ever, all Labour members can agree with the famous Neil Kinnock line: “The real privilege of being strong is to help people who are not strong. And caring enough about other people to want to help them is a matter of empathy, not class allegiance”.

    The point of Labour, therefore, should be to build a society of people strong and compassionate enough to support one another. If instead the idea is that we should privilege the working class over others, I’d ask: How do we know who is working class? And what characteristics do they possess that merit this special treatment?

    I don’t think we know who the working class really are anymore and even if we did, it is not clear to me that they are more greatly endowed with the qualities that the Labour party exits to cultivate. For both of these reasons, the “class-based politics” that Unite seeks to peddle is a nonsense.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    @JohnO.

    You realise you stand out among the PB Tories simply by having a knowledge of the Trades Unions.
    There's been some hilarious stuff posted on here over the last few days.
    Teach them John, they are like four year olds and fractions at the moment.

    The PB Tory "analysis" of Labour's internal structures and democracy is the money shot of PB.com

    I once witnessed a brilliant debate on here between them, none of whom realised that the system had moved to OMOV years previously.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    @JohnO.

    You realise you stand out among the PB Tories simply by having a knowledge of the Trades Unions.
    There's been some hilarious stuff posted on here over the last few days.
    Teach them John, they are like four year olds and fractions at the moment.

    The PB Tory "analysis" of Labour's internal structures and democracy is the money shot of PB.com

    I once witnessed a brilliant debate on here between them, none of whom realised that the system had moved to OMOV years previously.

    Which unions are affiliated is the classic.
    No matter how many years they've had them pointed out for they never get beyond "The CPS are paying for Labour" "Labours rewards the teaching unions which pay them"



    Brilliant.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim wants us to "check our privilege" wrt unions - is that sooo last month ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,375
    edited July 2013

    malcolmg said:

    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.

    Saddo, you crying because he was not grovelling and flying the Butchers Apron or because he was Scottish. Get a life
    malcolmg's claims to be a Rangers supporter and not to drink alcohol before noon are becoming untenable.

    Monica would you not be better using your time to plait your pigtails and tell us about that or even details of the view from your bedsit in Swindon rather than posting hogwash

    PS: I support the real Rangers , "Cmon the Buffs"
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Isn't OMOV is a myth when it comes to electing the Labour leader? I have forgotten exactly how many times its actually possible to vote, perhaps someone could enlighten me
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire
    Lab lost up to 1/3 union members when Cons imposed opt-in with 1927 Trade Disputes Act after 1926 General Strike. Mili know?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    On topic: Decent poll. The sheer stability of the Labour score almost since Day One of the Coalition being formed is pretty remarkable. I'm interested in SO's question about whether any party has had such an immediate bounce upon becoming an Opposition. Today will be N interesting day.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258

    malcolmg said:

    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.

    Saddo, you crying because he was not grovelling and flying the Butchers Apron or because he was Scottish. Get a life
    malcolmg's claims to be a Rangers supporter and not to drink alcohol before noon are becoming untenable.

    Haha. However, I'm not going to trade insults with Malcolm. It would be sad to see this place descend to the sort of trolling on Guido's site.

    I merely pointed out that Salmond unfurling the Scottish flag in the royal box was mistimed and misplaced. I'd have said the same for an English flag then and there if it was Laura Robson. Shows what poor judgement he has, mind you so did last night's Panorama where he took a hammering over the Trump fiasco.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited July 2013
    Ed's removing of the compulsory union funding to the Labour Party is a very smart political move.

    It'll have no significant effect on Labour Party funding before the next election but it'll clear the decks for an all out attack on tax avoiding rich Tory donors.

    If the 'out of touch with ordinary people-only serving the rich' is to be an effective plank of Labour's general election attack on the Tories removing this obstacle was crucial
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    CWU aren't very keen on EdM's plans either

    norman smith @BBCNormanS
    Billy Hayes CWU union leader @BBCr4today attacks Ed Miliband union reform plan as an old idea designed to weaken the unions
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Charles I'm interested in following up your suggestion on the previous thread. May I send you a private message through vanilla?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson
    If Ed M wants fight with union leaders he should be delighted. Billy Hayes Gen Sec of CWU attacks old fashioned idea first tried by Baldwin

    OUCH OUCH OUCH

    norman smith
    @BBCNormanS
    Billy Hayes CWU boss @BBCr4today says Miliband union reforms " are just a dog whistle" to signal he's dealing with the unions

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    malcolmg said:

    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.

    Saddo, you crying because he was not grovelling and flying the Butchers Apron or because he was Scottish. Get a life
    malcolmg's claims to be a Rangers supporter and not to drink alcohol before noon are becoming untenable.

    Haha. However, I'm not going to trade insults with Malcolm. It would be sad to see this place descend to the sort of trolling on Guido's site.

    I merely pointed out that Salmond unfurling the Scottish flag in the royal box was mistimed and misplaced. I'd have said the same for an English flag then and there if it was Laura Robson. Shows what poor judgement he has, mind you so did last night's Panorama where he took a hammering over the Trump fiasco.
    It was a poor show by Salmond . I deplore his vulgar attempts to contaminate the Saltire with his personal ambitions.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Mr. Roger, isn't that going to be hard given Labour advised a donor how to give money to them but avoid taxation? [Legal, of course].
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,007
    edited July 2013
    It's a good idea I think any decent thinking Tory would approve. Well done Ed.

    But then after brief reflection it becomes rather a "when did you stop beating your wife" moment.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One thing I don't get about what we've been told so far about Ed Miliband's proposals is why he thinks it should be optional for the unions and why he thinks that they will see this as something they'd want to do (so far, it seems that they don't). I suppose we'll have to wait for The Speech for more explanation of this.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    @Charles I'm interested in following up your suggestion on the previous thread. May I send you a private message through vanilla?

    Sure - travelling today, but will look tonight or tomorrow.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    It seems a very long time since we have had a poll from anyone other than Yougov. Was there not supposed to be an ICM poll due?

    Either the British population is paying even less attention to politics than usual (entirely possible given all the excellent and successful sport going on at the moment) or there is something really odd about a 40% level of support for a party busy abandoning all of its economic positions (such as they were) and indulging in a bit of civil war. Either way I would like to see how other companies are finding Labour support at the moment.

    Today will see the IMF admitting they were wrong and Osborne is right. My guess is that they will revise their growth forecast to 1.1% so they don't have to upgrade it again until after Q3. The fall in what might be called economic pessimism is interesting but we will need to see if this is a pattern or a one off.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited July 2013
    The more noise the unions make the better this confected row is for Ed. Infact I'd be surprised if Labour's ad agency haven't had a quiet word with the unions to make as big a noise as possible. It's taking on the shape of Alastaire Campbell's manufactured Clause 4 moment

    Nothing like slaying dragons to keep the British electorate onside.

    (Witness Maggie and Galtieri to whom she owes her second General Election victory).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,007
    Roger said:

    The more noise the unions make the better this confected row is for Ed.

    Perhaps but there will come a time when the Unions for Labour take over from the backbenchers for the Tories to win the prize of "most divided party".

    And the public don't be liking divided parties.
  • Re: Billy Hayes CWU "remains union policy that a ballot would be held to cease funds to the party if privatisation of postal services took place. As the privatisation proposal from the Labour government in 2009, the Postal Services Bill, was defeated through the unions campaign and the support of Labour backbenchers, affiliation has remained in place."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_Workers'_Union_(UK)

    But may be that only applies if some other party is in Govt that privatises?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Roger said:

    The more noise the unions make the better this confected row is for Ed. Infact I'd be surprised if Labour's ad agency haven't had a quiet word with the unions to make as big a noise as possible. It's taking on the shape of Alastaire Campbell's manufactured Clause 4 moment

    Nothing like slaying dragons to keep the British electorate onside.

    (Witness Maggie and Galtieri to whom she owes her second General Election victory).

    We're all on tenterhooks for Ed M's " the enemy within " speech. It should be a cracker.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,405

    It has been said by Mike many many times and bears repeating that Europe is a non issue. Or, rather, it mainly only matters to a certain demographic of over 60's. For the rest of the voting public we couldn't really care. We travel widely, we interact and we celebrate our identity without being xenophobic about it. UKIP will swipe a significant portion of the Conservative vote share, but that is all they will do.

    The EU is not at the top of most voters' concerns, but there's a clear lead among the over 40's (I.e. The people who actually go out and vote) to quit.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Re: Billy Hayes CWU "remains union policy that a ballot would be held to cease funds to the party if privatisation of postal services took place. As the privatisation proposal from the Labour government in 2009, the Postal Services Bill, was defeated through the unions campaign and the support of Labour backbenchers, affiliation has remained in place."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_Workers'_Union_(UK)

    But may be that only applies if some other party is in Govt that privatises?

    Ozzy is apparently announcing the privatisation of Royal Mail this week if tweets are accurate...
  • Does anyone know what share of the political levy is actually handed over as donation money to Labour? Looking at all the "political officers" in the Unions and their other largesse makes me wonder if the Labour donations (as a guess) only receive as little as half that actually paid by union members in political levies. Which is why the Ed Milliband move may not be as painful as it might first appear.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Does anyone know what share of the political levy is actually handed over as donation money to Labour? Looking at all the "political officers" in the Unions and their other largesse makes me wonder if the Labour donations (as a guess) only receive as little as half that actually paid by union members in political levies. Which is why the Ed Milliband move may not be as painful as it might first appear.

    It's £3 per union member - so if you can get your hands on up to dateish affiliated numbers, that should give a good idea.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    Re: Billy Hayes CWU "remains union policy that a ballot would be held to cease funds to the party if privatisation of postal services took place. As the privatisation proposal from the Labour government in 2009, the Postal Services Bill, was defeated through the unions campaign and the support of Labour backbenchers, affiliation has remained in place."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_Workers'_Union_(UK)

    But may be that only applies if some other party is in Govt that privatises?

    Ozzy is apparently announcing the privatisation of Royal Mail this week if tweets are accurate...
    I hope Ozzy has run it by Her Maj - it's her mail after all !!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    Plato said:

    Re: Billy Hayes CWU "remains union policy that a ballot would be held to cease funds to the party if privatisation of postal services took place. As the privatisation proposal from the Labour government in 2009, the Postal Services Bill, was defeated through the unions campaign and the support of Labour backbenchers, affiliation has remained in place."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_Workers'_Union_(UK)

    But may be that only applies if some other party is in Govt that privatises?

    Ozzy is apparently announcing the privatisation of Royal Mail this week if tweets are accurate...
    Nah, he will get Vince to do it. Commit the Lib Dems to another fine tory policy.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,007
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    Sean_F said:

    It has been said by Mike many many times and bears repeating that Europe is a non issue. Or, rather, it mainly only matters to a certain demographic of over 60's. For the rest of the voting public we couldn't really care. We travel widely, we interact and we celebrate our identity without being xenophobic about it. UKIP will swipe a significant portion of the Conservative vote share, but that is all they will do.

    The EU is not at the top of most voters' concerns, but there's a clear lead among the over 40's (I.e. The people who actually go out and vote) to quit.

    And when you tell them Cameron will recommend staying?

    You should know from the European Arrest Warrant stuff he'll do that.
    Um that and the fact that he said he would.

    He has made it clear: he wants to stay in principle and he will try to get a better deal for the UK which will support that position. But either way he will let the British People decide.

    Because he trusts them.

    Unlike the Labour Party.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    FPT

    antifrank

    Off topic, and since this is Nighthawks, when pbers are occasionally more friendly to each other, I have a request for suggestions.

    I'm at a stage in my life when I feel that I have achieved pretty much all that I want to achieve in my chosen career and I fancy branching out in different directions. The skills I'd like tested more are those which would involve me using my deductive abilities, lateral thinking, my ability to explain complex ideas clearly and strategic planning skills.

    I've got that far in my thought processes, but I'm now trying to compile a list of possibilities that might fit the bill. So I thought I would crowd-source this part of the problem.

    So, any ideas?

    @antifrank
    Just picked up your post from last night. It all depends whether you want to use your skills in a new direction for commercial purposes or at no cost for the benefit of others.

    Currently I live in a rural farming community near a small seaside and university town. None of the banks have a business manager within 50 miles (as is the nearest M&S), the local accountants and solicitors have limited experience, the CAB is good but very under-resourced and the locals often do not use it due to fear of small town purient gossip. Also the secondary schools are average at best and not really aspirational.

    Over the last three+ years, I find that I have been used by the wider community as a resource that is not available locally. This time I give freely and do not charge for.

    Whilst professionally I help new high-tech companies to grow globally (how to sit in the client's chair), my global experience as a scientist, engineer and businessman (as well as some knowledge of civil, charity and business law) is put to good use in helping the locals. (Equally valuable is my network of professional contacts as well as those in the city and HoP, as nobody knows all about everything.) This activity I have not sought out but has grown after one local farmer asked me to help him access a business loan, which involved showing him how to develop his business case and holding his hand throughout, and in this area the jungle drums beat loud and clear.

    So I have helped people with debt problems and assisted them at the bank and at court (cannot afford a solicitor or accountant). Help people start up and manage their own small businesses and even coach 5th & 6th formers in the sciences, maths etc. I have been invited to judge the local beauty and bonny baby competitions but there I have found that discretion is the better part of valour.

    My email is apjg01@gmail.com if you would like to chat off-PB.





  • With USDAW in the early noughties it was about £4.70 per member, per year iirc

    Does anyone know what share of the political levy is actually handed over as donation money to Labour? Looking at all the "political officers" in the Unions and their other largesse makes me wonder if the Labour donations (as a guess) only receive as little as half that actually paid by union members in political levies. Which is why the Ed Milliband move may not be as painful as it might first appear.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danczuk says every party has "swivel eyed loons"

    Is he talking about you tim ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    TGOHF said:
    If there is a Labour MP speaking more sense than Danczuk at the moment his name is not Ed. If Miliband wants to show he really means business a serious promotion is surely called for.

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,551
    edited July 2013
    DavidL said:

    Plato said:

    Re: Billy Hayes CWU "remains union policy that a ballot would be held to cease funds to the party if privatisation of postal services took place. As the privatisation proposal from the Labour government in 2009, the Postal Services Bill, was defeated through the unions campaign and the support of Labour backbenchers, affiliation has remained in place."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_Workers'_Union_(UK)

    But may be that only applies if some other party is in Govt that privatises?

    Ozzy is apparently announcing the privatisation of Royal Mail this week if tweets are accurate...
    Nah, he will get Vince to do it. Commit the Lib Dems to another fine tory policy.

    Privatising Royal Mail is a Lib Dem policy. It is the Tories who have been dragging their feet.

    Edit: Woo-hoo! 100 posts for me!
    Edit: Edits apparently count as a "post" so it's now 101.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    That is a cracking article and many home truths spoken with passion. More power to his elbow.

    "Never mind that by the time 1976 came round even Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan admitted that simply relying on more debt as an answer to economic woes would only inject more inflation into the economy and “a higher level of unemployment as the next step”.

    If you disagree with these people you’re immediately labeled a “Tory”, or worse still, a “Blairite”. Blinded by dogma, there’s no reasoning with these people.

    But Labour is under no illusion of the road that these dinosaurs would commit Britain to.

    If the day comes – and it's not far off if we don't act now - when the Left views wealth creators as pariahs and is more concerned about campaigning to keep Bruce Forsyth’s winter fuel allowance than supporting small businesses battling for survival then we’re in big trouble.

    YouGov President Peter Kellner said last week that Labour has “entered the danger zone”. The time has definitely come to wake up and realise the danger that the hard Left poses. You cannot win a General Election without economic credibility.

    And as long as we allow the siren voices of the futile left to continue to beat a loud drum for a state run economy then the public will smell the whiff of bankruptcy and diminishing prosperity.
    TGOHF said:
  • And it has distressed Owen Jones. A win double
    Plato said:

    That is a cracking article and many home truths spoken with passion. More power to his elbow.

    "Never mind that by the time 1976 came round even Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan admitted that simply relying on more debt as an answer to economic woes would only inject more inflation into the economy and “a higher level of unemployment as the next step”.

    If you disagree with these people you’re immediately labeled a “Tory”, or worse still, a “Blairite”. Blinded by dogma, there’s no reasoning with these people.

    But Labour is under no illusion of the road that these dinosaurs would commit Britain to.

    If the day comes – and it's not far off if we don't act now - when the Left views wealth creators as pariahs and is more concerned about campaigning to keep Bruce Forsyth’s winter fuel allowance than supporting small businesses battling for survival then we’re in big trouble.

    YouGov President Peter Kellner said last week that Labour has “entered the danger zone”. The time has definitely come to wake up and realise the danger that the hard Left poses. You cannot win a General Election without economic credibility.

    And as long as we allow the siren voices of the futile left to continue to beat a loud drum for a state run economy then the public will smell the whiff of bankruptcy and diminishing prosperity.

    TGOHF said:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim v Owen Jones - who speaks for Labour ??
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    .

    And it has distressed Owen Jones. A win double

    Plato said:

    That is a cracking article and many home truths spoken with passion. More power to his elbow.

    "Never mind that by the time 1976 came round even Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan admitted that simply relying on more debt as an answer to economic woes would only inject more inflation into the economy and “a higher level of unemployment as the next step”.

    If you disagree with these people you’re immediately labeled a “Tory”, or worse still, a “Blairite”. Blinded by dogma, there’s no reasoning with these people.

    But Labour is under no illusion of the road that these dinosaurs would commit Britain to.

    If the day comes – and it's not far off if we don't act now - when the Left views wealth creators as pariahs and is more concerned about campaigning to keep Bruce Forsyth’s winter fuel allowance than supporting small businesses battling for survival then we’re in big trouble.

    YouGov President Peter Kellner said last week that Labour has “entered the danger zone”. The time has definitely come to wake up and realise the danger that the hard Left poses. You cannot win a General Election without economic credibility.

    And as long as we allow the siren voices of the futile left to continue to beat a loud drum for a state run economy then the public will smell the whiff of bankruptcy and diminishing prosperity.

    TGOHF said:
    I think Simon's opening line saying "Some young lefties say the Falkirk stitch up was necessary to get more working class MPs into the party. " really touched a raw nerve and he was spot on.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Financier said:

    FPT

    antifrank

    Off topic, and since this is Nighthawks, when pbers are occasionally more friendly to each other, I have a request for suggestions.

    I'm at a stage in my life when I feel that I have achieved pretty much all that I want to achieve in my chosen career and I fancy branching out in different directions. The skills I'd like tested more are those which would involve me using my deductive abilities, lateral thinking, my ability to explain complex ideas clearly and strategic planning skills.

    I've got that far in my thought processes, but I'm now trying to compile a list of possibilities that might fit the bill. So I thought I would crowd-source this part of the problem.

    So, any ideas?

    @antifrank
    Just picked up your post from last night. It all depends whether you want to use your skills in a new direction for commercial purposes or at no cost for the benefit of others.

    Currently I live in a rural farming community near a small seaside and university town. None of the banks have a business manager within 50 miles (as is the nearest M&S), the local accountants and solicitors have limited experience, the CAB is good but very under-resourced and the locals often do not use it due to fear of small town purient gossip. Also the secondary schools are average at best and not really aspirational.

    Over the last three+ years, I find that I have been used by the wider community as a resource that is not available locally. This time I give freely and do not charge for.

    Whilst professionally I help new high-tech companies to grow globally (how to sit in the client's chair), my global experience as a scientist, engineer and businessman (as well as some knowledge of civil, charity and business law) is put to good use in helping the locals. (Equally valuable is my network of professional contacts as well as those in the city and HoP, as nobody knows all about everything.) This activity I have not sought out but has grown after one local farmer asked me to help him access a business loan, which involved showing him how to develop his business case and holding his hand throughout, and in this area the jungle drums beat loud and clear.

    So I have helped people with debt problems and assisted them at the bank and at court (cannot afford a solicitor or accountant). Help people start up and manage their own small businesses and even coach 5th & 6th formers in the sciences, maths etc. I have been invited to judge the local beauty and bonny baby competitions but there I have found that discretion is the better part of valour.

    My email is apjg01@gmail.com if you would like to chat off-PB.





    @financier

    A lovely post and a true example of altruism in the real world. If only our politicians had a similar stripe!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Blue_rog said:

    Financier said:

    FPT

    antifrank

    Off topic, and since this is Nighthawks, when pbers are occasionally more friendly to each other, I have a request for suggestions.

    I'm at a stage in my life when I feel that I have achieved pretty much all that I want to achieve in my chosen career and I fancy branching out in different directions. The skills I'd like tested more are those which would involve me using my deductive abilities, lateral thinking, my ability to explain complex ideas clearly and strategic planning skills.

    I've got that far in my thought processes, but I'm now trying to compile a list of possibilities that might fit the bill. So I thought I would crowd-source this part of the problem.

    So, any ideas?

    @antifrank
    Just picked up your post from last night. It all depends whether you want to use your skills in a new direction for commercial purposes or at no cost for the benefit of others.

    Currently I live in a rural farming community near a small seaside and university town. None of the banks have a business manager within 50 miles (as is the nearest M&S), the local accountants and solicitors have limited experience, the CAB is good but very under-resourced and the locals often do not use it due to fear of small town purient gossip. Also the secondary schools are average at best and not really aspirational.

    Over the last three+ years, I find that I have been used by the wider community as a resource that is not available locally. This time I give freely and do not charge for.

    Whilst professionally I help new high-tech companies to grow globally (how to sit in the client's chair), my global experience as a scientist, engineer and businessman (as well as some knowledge of civil, charity and business law) is put to good use in helping the locals. (Equally valuable is my network of professional contacts as well as those in the city and HoP, as nobody knows all about everything.) This activity I have not sought out but has grown after one local farmer asked me to help him access a business loan, which involved showing him how to develop his business case and holding his hand throughout, and in this area the jungle drums beat loud and clear.

    So I have helped people with debt problems and assisted them at the bank and at court (cannot afford a solicitor or accountant). Help people start up and manage their own small businesses and even coach 5th & 6th formers in the sciences, maths etc. I have been invited to judge the local beauty and bonny baby competitions but there I have found that discretion is the better part of valour.

    My email is apjg01@gmail.com if you would like to chat off-PB.





    @financier

    A lovely post and a true example of altruism in the real world. If only our politicians had a similar stripe!
    I can also add Mr @Financier is a complete gent, a fine conversationalist, a generous dining host and all round top bloke. He needs cloning :^ )
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    edited July 2013
    F1: some musings on driver changes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23238016

    It's all just speculation at this stage. Worth adding that Hulkenberg's payments have also been late (I don't know if they're up to date yet). I rate him highly, and would prefer him to Ricciardo, if I were Red Bull.

    Edited extra bit: the YoungDriver/New Tyre Test is 17-19 July. I'll put up the racing mid-season review after that, as we might have an idea of how the new tyres will shake things up.

    A technical chap I know online (http://thewptformula.wordpress.com/) reckons Mercedes were poor on tyres in Germany because of the rear-tyre swapping ban.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    @dugarbandier

    I enjoyed your brief dip into the warm waters of libertarianism on Nighthawks. When we get a suitable opportunity I'd like to take you up on your reply and engage about laissez faire. This morning, unfortunately for me, is not that time!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I recall some discussion of Welsh education here recently - any advice for me?

    My daughter is moving to Bangor [from Edinburgh] as her mother has found a job there, and from what I can tell the local secondary schools are very keen on teaching in Welsh, which is itself a compulsory GCSE subject.

    What is it going to be like for an 11 year old with no Welsh to move into that?

    They will likely be moving away after three years when the job contract finishes, so I don't know how worthwhile it will be for her to spend so much time in school learning Welsh.

    Also, if anyone has experience of good places to stay when I visit her that would be great. I know there's a cottage out in Anglesey that will be vacant soon, but I doubt I can stay there on an ad-hoc basis all that cheaply.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2013

    With USDAW in the early noughties it was about £4.70 per member, per year iirc

    Unite in 2011 said* the average political levy paid was 66p per mth which is £7.92 p.a. With 1.4m members (balloted in 2010 Lab ldrship) that is £11m p.a. but I understand they only donate £3m p.a. to Labour. So even if Unite exagerated their average into some form of average for a full time worker, they are probably handing over a minor part of the levy raised. Hence why they can fund and run 41 Falkirk campaigns and all the other lobbying and website activities.

    *5481_PFB_Activists_Guide_Final:PFB 20/12/2012
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    A very good point re creditors and Labour ... http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/07/09/well-done-ed-this-is-right-for-the-party-just-one-thing-make-sure-you’ve-squared-off-the-creditors/

    "This morning Ed Miliband will make a brave and genuinely bold move. Backing a change to the terms of union affiliation, so that individual trade unionists “opt in” to pay towards the party, will revolutionise the party’s relationship with union members...Others’ have written about the merits of this move, suffice to say it is radical and offers the opportunity to comprehensively modernise Labour’s relations with the unions.

    There’s just one thing. And it’s likely that the team at Brewers Green will have already addressed this, but just in case, before Ed Miliband gets up to speak, it’s important that the Labour party has made sure its creditors are comfortable with the changes being proposed.

    Why? Because the party has long term loan financing arrangements that are secured against a stable, minimum level of future income.

    A few years ago, the party did what many businesses and individuals do: it refinanced its debts. As part of this process, agreements were signed that committed the Labour party to a more manageable schedule of repayment and debt servicing .

    The creditors consented to signing these less stringent agreements because Labour promised to maintain a minimum level of income, out of which a proportion would be dedicated to debt payment and servicing..."
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    And here's another one.

    Len McCluskey @Unite4Len
    Congratulations to Unite member and Leader of Islington Council @CatherineWest1 on becoming Labour’s PPC in Hornsey & Wood Green good news

    and then of course

    Evan Davis @EvanHD
    Peter Kellner fact: In 2010, 49% of union members voted for one of the coalition parties and 38% for Labour. I hadn't clocked this until now
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    What time is the World changing speech.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,375

    malcolmg said:

    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.

    Saddo, you crying because he was not grovelling and flying the Butchers Apron or because he was Scottish. Get a life
    malcolmg's claims to be a Rangers supporter and not to drink alcohol before noon are becoming untenable.

    Haha. However, I'm not going to trade insults with Malcolm. It would be sad to see this place descend to the sort of trolling on Guido's site.

    I merely pointed out that Salmond unfurling the Scottish flag in the royal box was mistimed and misplaced. I'd have said the same for an English flag then and there if it was Laura Robson. Shows what poor judgement he has, mind you so did last night's Panorama where he took a hammering over the Trump fiasco.
    Would that be the same successful inward investment project that is going great guns , with 2 golf courses , hotel etc providing jobs in a place where employment was rarer than hens teeth, yes real fiasco indeed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,375

    malcolmg said:

    Talking of independent Scotland, anyone see that oaf Salmond unfurl the Scottish flag in the royal box? Talk about missing the mood.

    Saddo, you crying because he was not grovelling and flying the Butchers Apron or because he was Scottish. Get a life
    malcolmg's claims to be a Rangers supporter and not to drink alcohol before noon are becoming untenable.

    Haha. However, I'm not going to trade insults with Malcolm. It would be sad to see this place descend to the sort of trolling on Guido's site.

    I merely pointed out that Salmond unfurling the Scottish flag in the royal box was mistimed and misplaced. I'd have said the same for an English flag then and there if it was Laura Robson. Shows what poor judgement he has, mind you so did last night's Panorama where he took a hammering over the Trump fiasco.
    It was a poor show by Salmond . I deplore his vulgar attempts to contaminate the Saltire with his personal ambitions.

    LOL, you do provide the laughs on here
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Peter Kellner's assessment...

    "This is Ed Miliband’s darkest hour; but dawn could soon arrive, Peter Kellner's latest commentary.

    His current poll numbers are plainly terrible. YouGov’s latest survey for the Sunday Times was conducted as the arguments raged about Labour’s links with the trade unions and, in particular, Miliband’s spat with Len McCluskey, the leader of Unite, Britain’s biggest trade union. It found that:

    - Only 26% think he is doing well as Labour’s leader; 60% think he is doing badly – a nets score of minus 34.

    - A mere 18% of the public – and only 38% of Labour supporters – feel he ‘has provided an effective opposition to the government’

    - Just 20% think he is up to the job of Prime Minister – down from an already low 25% two months ago.

    - One in three of those who voted Labour in 2010 think he is NOT up to the job... http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/09/ed-milibands-route-victory/
  • Plato that "creditors and Labour" article just resonates with Labour's approach to public finances. But I have not seen any article into the true picture of where all the political levy goes. Ed may be counting on losing very little £ even if 1/2 the present contributors do not shift into a Labour direct arrangement. May be EdM is playing a smart game of cutting out the middle man (Union leaders)?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ohh err - I had no idea how significant the union's role had been...

    "Miliband’s problem is that his record is nothing like Blair’s. Indeed, he really does owe his position to the leaders of the big unions, including Unite. During the 2010 leadership election YouGov twice polled union members with a vote. Initially, in July, they backed David Miliband over his brother by 56-44%. Then the big unions went to work. Not only did they tell their members to back Ed, they inserted the ballot papers inside envelopes with Ed’s picture; they refused to allow rival candidates either to put their case in the same mailing or to have direct access to union members. By early September we found that union members had swung to Ed by a massive 13%. They now backed Ed by 57-43%. His final margin of victory in this section was 60-40% – just enough to overturn David’s leads among MPs and local party members.

    This matters because today’s arguments do not simply concern the merits of union members taking part in Labour elections. Ed could, and does, point out that more than 330,000 individuals voted in the contest three years ago, far more than the number of Conservatives involved in the election that made David Cameron leader of his party in 2005. Ed’s real problem is the way the major unions behaved. They exploited inadequate party rules to run a biased campaign in his favour. Had they given all the candidates a fair chance to appeal to their members, the 13% swing to Ed would almost certainly not have happened. Given the closeness of the final result, without that shift, David would have won.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    I wonder, will those who have not opted out of the levy now automatically do so unless they choose actively to opt in? Or will we see everyone presently paying the levy (and it sounds like many didn't know they could opt out) continue to do so unless they actively opt out?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Crikey

    "(How can I be sure that Ed would have lost a fair contest? Because YouGov also polled individual party members, and found only a 2% shift from David to Ed between July and September. Had trade unionists swung by 2% from David to Ed, David would have won the overall contest comfortably. David would also have been the victor had union members swung by 4% or even 8% to his younger brother. Union leaders needed a campaign swing well into double figures to make Ed leader. They set about their task with single-minded determination and got their way. Not only did they violate the principles of fairness; they also ignored the fact that in the 2010 election, 49% of union members voted for one of the two coalition parties and only 38% for Labour.)..."
  • Plato said:

    Ohh err - I had no idea how significant the union's role had been...
    "Ed’s real problem is the way the major unions behaved. They exploited inadequate party rules to run a biased campaign in his favour. Had they given all the candidates a fair chance to appeal to their members, the 13% swing to Ed would almost certainly not have happened. Given the closeness of the final result, without that shift, David would have won.

    Yes and there may have been some vote farming with all the postal votes involved. If only we had some investigative hacks in the right wing press! Oh well off to work.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Ha, Miss Plato, perhaps the unions should've known that E. Miliband always stabs his brothers in the back :p
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    GeoffM said:

    @dugarbandier

    I enjoyed your brief dip into the warm waters of libertarianism on Nighthawks. When we get a suitable opportunity I'd like to take you up on your reply and engage about laissez faire. This morning, unfortunately for me, is not that time!

    @GeoffM

    OK, see you anon
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    and from what I can tell the local secondary schools are very keen on teaching in Welsh, which is itself a compulsory GCSE subject. What is it going to be like for an 11 year old with no Welsh to move into that? They will likely be moving away after three years when the job contract finishes, so I don't know how worthwhile it will be for her to spend so much time in school learning Welsh.

    Whilst I can't help specifically with the Welsh scenario, exactly the same happens here with Spanish being taught as a compulsory GCSE, being used by teachers in the classroom and pupils in the playground.

    I have friends who are teachers in that environment, and friends who are out here on work contracts for a few years with young children, and have had this conversation before. The teachers are always aware of the situation in their class as it happens and varies each year, so consideration and thought are taken. As for the playground, though, that can be a very different story. Children will be children and those who don't fit in can be isolated from social groups. Check the mix at the school of pupil backgrounds, that will help your thinking.

    Experience over here tells us that it depends on the attitude of the child. To take it as a learning experience with a unique opportunity to learn a little of a different language even though it will be of little use later. Or to isolate and resent the time. Teachers should/will do their best to help, but you know your daughter and it's personality that counts.

    I hope that helps and my best wishes at this uncertain/interesting time for your daughter.



  • I doubt many members even know that a levy exists.
    At my Tesco DC it was only a political anorak like me or the shop stewards. And to opt out was a bloody painful process.

    I wonder, will those who have not opted out of the levy now automatically do so unless they choose actively to opt in? Or will we see everyone presently paying the levy (and it sounds like many didn't know they could opt out) continue to do so unless they actively opt out?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,314
    Financier said:

    The approval at -25 shows a sharp movement from -32. Must the first time it has been in the -20s for ages.

    Wonder if that is a reflection of a wee Government bounce on the back of increased economic optimism? Also, the news Qatader was finally deported over the weekend will have resonated with the public too.

  • Ha, Miss Plato, perhaps the unions should've known that E. Miliband always stabs his brothers in the back :p

    brilliant
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    For Scots PBers - this looks fascinating viewing http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-23231925

    A real-life murder trial is to be broadcast on television, giving a rare insight into the court system.

    The programme was filmed over a period of six weeks at the High Court in Edinburgh last year.

    It follows the retrial of Nat Fraser, whose face is shown on screen as the jury returns the verdict against him on the charge of murdering his wife.

    The documentary - The Murder Trial - was made by Windfall Films and is to be screened on Channel 4.

    It follows the trial from start to finish and features several of the figures involved, providing a rare insight into proceedings in Scottish courts.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950
    YouGov/The Sunil:

    Coalition 44%
    Labour 40%

    OR

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 40%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950

    Ha, Miss Plato, perhaps the unions should've known that E. Miliband always stabs his brothers in the back :p

    Quote of the day, Mr Dancer :)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    And there's more grumbling - this time from BME candidates. This really isn't terribly helpful to Labour.

    Labour faced fresh claims of union abuse last night as it emerged that ethnic minority candidates have been passed over in favour of trade union-supported white candidates. The party briefly suspended the selection of candidates for council seats in the south London boroughs of Southwark and Lambeth after claims black and Asian applicants were discriminated against.

    Four highly qualified black women filed official complaints against Labour officials after not being selected for the shortlist to represent the party in Lambeth. In Southwark, where deputy leader Harriet Harman has her parliamentary seat, the former black mayor, who has been deselected, accused Miss Harman of failing to uphold her claims to support equality...

    A second rejected black candidate added: ‘I know of seven applicants who were rejected at the first round. They were all black. The only person I know who got through was a white man. He just happens to be backed by Unite.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358562/Union-stitch-forcing-black-Labour-candidates-Party-suspended-selection-council-seats-London-boroughs-claims-discrimination.html#ixzz2YXLVZruj
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