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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Ed prepares to take on the unions the CON share moves to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Ed prepares to take on the unions the CON share moves to six month high with YouGov
It’s only one poll and the changes are all within the margin of error but the Tories will take a lot of comfort from the first YouGov poll of the week which has its share at 34% – only three down on what it achieved at GE2010.
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I wonder if it is at this stage of the cycle that certainty to vote figures get more important.
Where art thou ICM ?
.
Squibby if true.
Time for the government to outlaw the state subsidy of unions too.
I was a member of USDAW when I worked at a Tesco DC.
The only reason I recall anyone ever saying they joined was for access to legal advice in the event of an accident etc.
Ironically the people I know that did have accidents were thoroughly cheesed off with the legal advice as it was invariably to accept the first offer.
Most held out and got a higher offer, the ones that accepted were even more annoyed when they discovered that they could have got a higher award by ignoring the advice.
Getting out of the political levy was a different matter entirely, it took two years and only after I threatened legal action, loudly proclaiming to the regional organiser that I was a Thatcherite
This is potentially a very exciting day for the Labour party: taking a short term hit would be well worth it if longer term it becomes more broadly reflective of the way the British think. But we shall have to see the detail. If Miliband does not deliver then I suspect there will be serious carnage and he will have written his own death sentence.
So, assuming the deficit also declines more rapidly than currently forecast through growth, additional tax revenue and Lloyds TSB sell-off (look at the continuing rise in their share price) and I reckon Osborne may have a little something or two in the 2014 budget.....to seep through long enough for 2015.
Now THAT'S what will prompt any swing from floating voters currently weakly supporting Labour and LibDems.
Without that - surely the unions can continue to take dues and pass them to whoever their own rule book says - or not as they see fit.
Perhaps someone can shed some expert light on this.
"Internal documents produced by the GMB union suggest that Unite was not the only union that sought to influence candidate selections. A report given to the GMB’s annual congress points to Peterborough and Tamworth as successful examples of campaigns to ensure that trade unionists were chosen to run for Westminster. Emma Lewell-Buck, who won a by-election in David Miliband’s former seat of South Shields, is cited as another triumph. " Paywall
Everyone knows where Tory funding comes from. The media has written constantly about it for years.
I suspect that over the medium term a Labour party that has looser ties to the unions will begin to attract decent levels of funding from other sources. It should help the party open up to new ideas and ways of viewing the world. We may also see a sharper light turned onto the way in whch the Tories get their wedge. Absolute transparency in funding should be one thing that Miliband calls for.
This is potentially a very exciting day for the Labour party: taking a short term hit would be well worth it if longer term it becomes more broadly reflective of the way the British think. But we shall have to see the detail. If Miliband does not deliver then I suspect there will be serious carnage and he will have written his own death sentence.
"...In future, individual trade unionists will have to tick a box to affiliate and they will then become full party members in their own right. Labour headquarters will have their names and addresses and be able to communicate with them directly, rather than only through their unions (which currently refuse to hand databases on to the party). And, critically, the people who have joined through a trade union will have the same rights as any other Labour Party member...It also raises questions about leadership elections and party conference votes.
Historically, the trade unions have had a proportion of such votes, through an electoral college. If individual trade unionists are to become individual Labour Party members, then the logical next step is surely the introduction of a one-member one-vote system, otherwise there will effectively be two classes of member whose views carry different weight. That would mean the end of the leadership contest rules under which Mr Miliband beat his brother David to the Labour leadership, with the help of Unite.
Although the Labour leader may be reluctant to spell out the full implications immediately, party sources confirm that wider reform is on the cards. The link between Labour and the unions will be retained but the general secretaries such as Len McCluskey will be neutered. The barons’ allies on Labour’s ruling body — the National Executive Committee — will hate it. Mr Miliband would be sensible to hold a ballot of all party members to endorse his blueprint for reform and see them off.
I love to start the day with a good laugh ... well done
Bit sleepy, so not fully up on the proposals Miliband's putting forward.
They sound sensible, from what I've seen.
Edited extra bit: that said, would they actually prevent what's alleged to have occurred in Falkirk?
St Emilion of Unite has already made his view that opt-in is 'unworkable' - not very surprising given that he's using that money to strongarm his way to parly power. I can't see him giving in easily and he's just been re-elected IIRC so isn't going anywhere else soon.
The GMB have also been playing the same game according to the Times. What's in it for the unions to play ball with EdM here?
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/politics/romford_conservatives_at_war_as_party_drops_top_havering_councillors_1_2265665
"“I have raised very serious concerns about Romford Conservative Association with the national Conservative Party and look forward hearing how the national party will investigate them.“
"
It’s a stitch-up. People who now are in positions within the Romford association are exacting revenge for what they consider to be past slurs”
“After a very difficult year for me in which I have continued to carry out my council duties despite my treatment [for cancer], I was devastated to be dealt with in this way.”
"One member of the local government committee lied to residents about the reasons for Cllr Lynden Thorpe and Cllr Eric Munday’s omission from the candidate lists"
“The selection process that has taken place was a sham,”
" Senior figures in the Labour party believe the reforms may take “years” to introduce and there is no guarantee that they will be in place in time for the next general election in 2015.
Labour is also expected to decline an offer from Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, to help write a new law to enforce the changes to Labour’s trade union links.
In the Commons on Tuesday, Mr Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, is expected to offer Mr Miliband the chance to suggest that a Bill introducing a statutory register of lobbyists could be rewritten to include an “opt-in” system for payments from trade union affiliations..."
"I don’t feel that any superior virtue or wisdom attaches to me through membership of the squeezed middle. We all have our strengths and weaknesses, whatever our class. While class membership seems to me more perplexing than ever, all Labour members can agree with the famous Neil Kinnock line: “The real privilege of being strong is to help people who are not strong. And caring enough about other people to want to help them is a matter of empathy, not class allegiance”.
The point of Labour, therefore, should be to build a society of people strong and compassionate enough to support one another. If instead the idea is that we should privilege the working class over others, I’d ask: How do we know who is working class? And what characteristics do they possess that merit this special treatment?
I don’t think we know who the working class really are anymore and even if we did, it is not clear to me that they are more greatly endowed with the qualities that the Labour party exits to cultivate. For both of these reasons, the “class-based politics” that Unite seeks to peddle is a nonsense.
I once witnessed a brilliant debate on here between them, none of whom realised that the system had moved to OMOV years previously.
PS: I support the real Rangers , "Cmon the Buffs"
Lab lost up to 1/3 union members when Cons imposed opt-in with 1927 Trade Disputes Act after 1926 General Strike. Mili know?
I merely pointed out that Salmond unfurling the Scottish flag in the royal box was mistimed and misplaced. I'd have said the same for an English flag then and there if it was Laura Robson. Shows what poor judgement he has, mind you so did last night's Panorama where he took a hammering over the Trump fiasco.
It'll have no significant effect on Labour Party funding before the next election but it'll clear the decks for an all out attack on tax avoiding rich Tory donors.
If the 'out of touch with ordinary people-only serving the rich' is to be an effective plank of Labour's general election attack on the Tories removing this obstacle was crucial
norman smith @BBCNormanS
Billy Hayes CWU union leader @BBCr4today attacks Ed Miliband union reform plan as an old idea designed to weaken the unions
If Ed M wants fight with union leaders he should be delighted. Billy Hayes Gen Sec of CWU attacks old fashioned idea first tried by Baldwin
OUCH OUCH OUCH
norman smith
@BBCNormanS
Billy Hayes CWU boss @BBCr4today says Miliband union reforms " are just a dog whistle" to signal he's dealing with the unions
But then after brief reflection it becomes rather a "when did you stop beating your wife" moment.
Either the British population is paying even less attention to politics than usual (entirely possible given all the excellent and successful sport going on at the moment) or there is something really odd about a 40% level of support for a party busy abandoning all of its economic positions (such as they were) and indulging in a bit of civil war. Either way I would like to see how other companies are finding Labour support at the moment.
Today will see the IMF admitting they were wrong and Osborne is right. My guess is that they will revise their growth forecast to 1.1% so they don't have to upgrade it again until after Q3. The fall in what might be called economic pessimism is interesting but we will need to see if this is a pattern or a one off.
Nothing like slaying dragons to keep the British electorate onside.
(Witness Maggie and Galtieri to whom she owes her second General Election victory).
And the public don't be liking divided parties.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_Workers'_Union_(UK)
But may be that only applies if some other party is in Govt that privatises?
Simon Danczuk MP - oooft link says it all.
He has made it clear: he wants to stay in principle and he will try to get a better deal for the UK which will support that position. But either way he will let the British People decide.
Because he trusts them.
Unlike the Labour Party.
antifrank
Off topic, and since this is Nighthawks, when pbers are occasionally more friendly to each other, I have a request for suggestions.
I'm at a stage in my life when I feel that I have achieved pretty much all that I want to achieve in my chosen career and I fancy branching out in different directions. The skills I'd like tested more are those which would involve me using my deductive abilities, lateral thinking, my ability to explain complex ideas clearly and strategic planning skills.
I've got that far in my thought processes, but I'm now trying to compile a list of possibilities that might fit the bill. So I thought I would crowd-source this part of the problem.
So, any ideas?
@antifrank
Just picked up your post from last night. It all depends whether you want to use your skills in a new direction for commercial purposes or at no cost for the benefit of others.
Currently I live in a rural farming community near a small seaside and university town. None of the banks have a business manager within 50 miles (as is the nearest M&S), the local accountants and solicitors have limited experience, the CAB is good but very under-resourced and the locals often do not use it due to fear of small town purient gossip. Also the secondary schools are average at best and not really aspirational.
Over the last three+ years, I find that I have been used by the wider community as a resource that is not available locally. This time I give freely and do not charge for.
Whilst professionally I help new high-tech companies to grow globally (how to sit in the client's chair), my global experience as a scientist, engineer and businessman (as well as some knowledge of civil, charity and business law) is put to good use in helping the locals. (Equally valuable is my network of professional contacts as well as those in the city and HoP, as nobody knows all about everything.) This activity I have not sought out but has grown after one local farmer asked me to help him access a business loan, which involved showing him how to develop his business case and holding his hand throughout, and in this area the jungle drums beat loud and clear.
So I have helped people with debt problems and assisted them at the bank and at court (cannot afford a solicitor or accountant). Help people start up and manage their own small businesses and even coach 5th & 6th formers in the sciences, maths etc. I have been invited to judge the local beauty and bonny baby competitions but there I have found that discretion is the better part of valour.
My email is apjg01@gmail.com if you would like to chat off-PB.
Is he talking about you tim ?
Edit: Woo-hoo! 100 posts for me!
Edit: Edits apparently count as a "post" so it's now 101.
"Never mind that by the time 1976 came round even Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan admitted that simply relying on more debt as an answer to economic woes would only inject more inflation into the economy and “a higher level of unemployment as the next step”.
If you disagree with these people you’re immediately labeled a “Tory”, or worse still, a “Blairite”. Blinded by dogma, there’s no reasoning with these people.
But Labour is under no illusion of the road that these dinosaurs would commit Britain to.
If the day comes – and it's not far off if we don't act now - when the Left views wealth creators as pariahs and is more concerned about campaigning to keep Bruce Forsyth’s winter fuel allowance than supporting small businesses battling for survival then we’re in big trouble.
YouGov President Peter Kellner said last week that Labour has “entered the danger zone”. The time has definitely come to wake up and realise the danger that the hard Left poses. You cannot win a General Election without economic credibility.
And as long as we allow the siren voices of the futile left to continue to beat a loud drum for a state run economy then the public will smell the whiff of bankruptcy and diminishing prosperity.
A lovely post and a true example of altruism in the real world. If only our politicians had a similar stripe!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23238016
It's all just speculation at this stage. Worth adding that Hulkenberg's payments have also been late (I don't know if they're up to date yet). I rate him highly, and would prefer him to Ricciardo, if I were Red Bull.
Edited extra bit: the YoungDriver/New Tyre Test is 17-19 July. I'll put up the racing mid-season review after that, as we might have an idea of how the new tyres will shake things up.
A technical chap I know online (http://thewptformula.wordpress.com/) reckons Mercedes were poor on tyres in Germany because of the rear-tyre swapping ban.
I enjoyed your brief dip into the warm waters of libertarianism on Nighthawks. When we get a suitable opportunity I'd like to take you up on your reply and engage about laissez faire. This morning, unfortunately for me, is not that time!
My daughter is moving to Bangor [from Edinburgh] as her mother has found a job there, and from what I can tell the local secondary schools are very keen on teaching in Welsh, which is itself a compulsory GCSE subject.
What is it going to be like for an 11 year old with no Welsh to move into that?
They will likely be moving away after three years when the job contract finishes, so I don't know how worthwhile it will be for her to spend so much time in school learning Welsh.
Also, if anyone has experience of good places to stay when I visit her that would be great. I know there's a cottage out in Anglesey that will be vacant soon, but I doubt I can stay there on an ad-hoc basis all that cheaply.
*5481_PFB_Activists_Guide_Final:PFB 20/12/2012
"This morning Ed Miliband will make a brave and genuinely bold move. Backing a change to the terms of union affiliation, so that individual trade unionists “opt in” to pay towards the party, will revolutionise the party’s relationship with union members...Others’ have written about the merits of this move, suffice to say it is radical and offers the opportunity to comprehensively modernise Labour’s relations with the unions.
There’s just one thing. And it’s likely that the team at Brewers Green will have already addressed this, but just in case, before Ed Miliband gets up to speak, it’s important that the Labour party has made sure its creditors are comfortable with the changes being proposed.
Why? Because the party has long term loan financing arrangements that are secured against a stable, minimum level of future income.
A few years ago, the party did what many businesses and individuals do: it refinanced its debts. As part of this process, agreements were signed that committed the Labour party to a more manageable schedule of repayment and debt servicing .
The creditors consented to signing these less stringent agreements because Labour promised to maintain a minimum level of income, out of which a proportion would be dedicated to debt payment and servicing..."
Len McCluskey @Unite4Len
Congratulations to Unite member and Leader of Islington Council @CatherineWest1 on becoming Labour’s PPC in Hornsey & Wood Green good news
and then of course
Evan Davis @EvanHD
Peter Kellner fact: In 2010, 49% of union members voted for one of the coalition parties and 38% for Labour. I hadn't clocked this until now
"This is Ed Miliband’s darkest hour; but dawn could soon arrive, Peter Kellner's latest commentary.
His current poll numbers are plainly terrible. YouGov’s latest survey for the Sunday Times was conducted as the arguments raged about Labour’s links with the trade unions and, in particular, Miliband’s spat with Len McCluskey, the leader of Unite, Britain’s biggest trade union. It found that:
- Only 26% think he is doing well as Labour’s leader; 60% think he is doing badly – a nets score of minus 34.
- A mere 18% of the public – and only 38% of Labour supporters – feel he ‘has provided an effective opposition to the government’
- Just 20% think he is up to the job of Prime Minister – down from an already low 25% two months ago.
- One in three of those who voted Labour in 2010 think he is NOT up to the job... http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/09/ed-milibands-route-victory/
"Miliband’s problem is that his record is nothing like Blair’s. Indeed, he really does owe his position to the leaders of the big unions, including Unite. During the 2010 leadership election YouGov twice polled union members with a vote. Initially, in July, they backed David Miliband over his brother by 56-44%. Then the big unions went to work. Not only did they tell their members to back Ed, they inserted the ballot papers inside envelopes with Ed’s picture; they refused to allow rival candidates either to put their case in the same mailing or to have direct access to union members. By early September we found that union members had swung to Ed by a massive 13%. They now backed Ed by 57-43%. His final margin of victory in this section was 60-40% – just enough to overturn David’s leads among MPs and local party members.
This matters because today’s arguments do not simply concern the merits of union members taking part in Labour elections. Ed could, and does, point out that more than 330,000 individuals voted in the contest three years ago, far more than the number of Conservatives involved in the election that made David Cameron leader of his party in 2005. Ed’s real problem is the way the major unions behaved. They exploited inadequate party rules to run a biased campaign in his favour. Had they given all the candidates a fair chance to appeal to their members, the 13% swing to Ed would almost certainly not have happened. Given the closeness of the final result, without that shift, David would have won.
"(How can I be sure that Ed would have lost a fair contest? Because YouGov also polled individual party members, and found only a 2% shift from David to Ed between July and September. Had trade unionists swung by 2% from David to Ed, David would have won the overall contest comfortably. David would also have been the victor had union members swung by 4% or even 8% to his younger brother. Union leaders needed a campaign swing well into double figures to make Ed leader. They set about their task with single-minded determination and got their way. Not only did they violate the principles of fairness; they also ignored the fact that in the 2010 election, 49% of union members voted for one of the two coalition parties and only 38% for Labour.)..."
OK, see you anon
I have friends who are teachers in that environment, and friends who are out here on work contracts for a few years with young children, and have had this conversation before. The teachers are always aware of the situation in their class as it happens and varies each year, so consideration and thought are taken. As for the playground, though, that can be a very different story. Children will be children and those who don't fit in can be isolated from social groups. Check the mix at the school of pupil backgrounds, that will help your thinking.
Experience over here tells us that it depends on the attitude of the child. To take it as a learning experience with a unique opportunity to learn a little of a different language even though it will be of little use later. Or to isolate and resent the time. Teachers should/will do their best to help, but you know your daughter and it's personality that counts.
I hope that helps and my best wishes at this uncertain/interesting time for your daughter.
At my Tesco DC it was only a political anorak like me or the shop stewards. And to opt out was a bloody painful process.
A real-life murder trial is to be broadcast on television, giving a rare insight into the court system.
The programme was filmed over a period of six weeks at the High Court in Edinburgh last year.
It follows the retrial of Nat Fraser, whose face is shown on screen as the jury returns the verdict against him on the charge of murdering his wife.
The documentary - The Murder Trial - was made by Windfall Films and is to be screened on Channel 4.
It follows the trial from start to finish and features several of the figures involved, providing a rare insight into proceedings in Scottish courts.
Coalition 44%
Labour 40%
OR
Tory/UKIP 44%
Labour 40%
Labour faced fresh claims of union abuse last night as it emerged that ethnic minority candidates have been passed over in favour of trade union-supported white candidates. The party briefly suspended the selection of candidates for council seats in the south London boroughs of Southwark and Lambeth after claims black and Asian applicants were discriminated against.
Four highly qualified black women filed official complaints against Labour officials after not being selected for the shortlist to represent the party in Lambeth. In Southwark, where deputy leader Harriet Harman has her parliamentary seat, the former black mayor, who has been deselected, accused Miss Harman of failing to uphold her claims to support equality...
A second rejected black candidate added: ‘I know of seven applicants who were rejected at the first round. They were all black. The only person I know who got through was a white man. He just happens to be backed by Unite.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358562/Union-stitch-forcing-black-Labour-candidates-Party-suspended-selection-council-seats-London-boroughs-claims-discrimination.html#ixzz2YXLVZruj