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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Analysis: Corbyn has the worst end first year satisfaction
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Analysis: Corbyn has the worst end first year satisfaction ratings of any LAB leader in opposition
This last week has marked the first anniversary of Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour party and I thought it worth checking the standing of other LAB leaders at this stage.
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Anyway, on topic, as I was trying to say before...
Corbyn: less popular than Michael Foot. Sums it all up quite nicely.
New York bomb was 'act of terrorism', says Governor Cuomo
And there was me thinking it was a minor domestic dispute that got a little out of hand.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/singapore-post-race-analysis-2016.html
For those avoiding spoilers and wondering if it's worth watching the highlights, I'd say it is.
On-topic: comrades, do not despair! Once the rigged pro-Tory bourgeois capitalist pigdog facade of governance ('democracy', as the despots laughingly call it) is dismantled and an improved form of responsible leadership (whereby Momentum members select Parliamentarians from a Chairman Corbyn-approved shortlist) we shall sweep to victory!
Gordon Brown's Labour couldn't make 30% in 2010. Corbyn might only get to 25% next time - IF Labour doesn't split...
Edit - 11th like the number of goes these two have to get a first serve in!
This is what an online dictionary says:
'If you're a cunctator, you tend to procrastinate, or put off til later what you should probably do right now. Your teacher might call you a cunctator if you start writing your paper the night before it's due'
https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/cunctator.
Methinks it would be a brave teacher in this day and age.
Still in regards to article 50, Theresa May is clearly being a bit of a cunctator.
She clearly wasnt a cunctator where Osborne was concerned. Clearly it is unwise to be a cunctator when dealing with a c...
Or even penelopising cunctators.
However, a full scale reselection battle for the entire PLP, with most MPs having to fight off Momentum takeovers of their local associations, may finally force the moderates' hands. If they are facing having their careers terminated by a radical majority amongst the membership, then they may well conclude that they have nothing left to lose by walking.
Quintus Fabius Maximus, the original Cunctator, or Delayer, did precisely the right thing by refusing battle with Hannibal to allow Rome's strength to be rebuilt (excepting when he went to the rescue of his magister equitum).
I disagree, however, re: James and Ukip. Providing that May delivers Brexit, I would expect almost no Tory MPs to be at risk from the purples.
If Ukip are going to make any meaningful progress then it is going to be against a weakened and very left-wing Labour Party. If anything, I imagine that May would be thrilled by such a prospect. Labour will be fighting the next election on several fronts at the same time, and if Ukip can do any damage to Labour in Northern heartland areas (i.e. largely in seats where the Tories are completely uncompetitive) then it will only weaken the principal opposition party, and leave the Parliamentary opposition as a whole even more fragmented than it is already. This can only be good news for the Conservatives.
Off topic, my damson trees are absolutely laden this year and I'm making damson gin. Yay! It's really hard to judge how much sugar to put in as I don't like it too syrupy. Any thoughts?
Sorry, I have no helpful advice to offer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37399969
Not Damson Jam? What would Jezza say...
I'm still generally amazed that corbyn seeks to reform the party into a social movement, away from the traditional parliamentary representative democracy the Labour seeks to shape. That in itself is utterly barmy and doomed to failure.
Best jam I've ever made. But in retrospect, as this was in Geneva, I should have taken my mash to the local alembique and had some aquavit made up.
I'm unconvinced Farron's EU-philia will play well.
While that would certainly lead to further inroads by UKIP into some of the Leave Labour voting white working class, I disagree that the Tories would be invulnerable. A majority of Tories voted Leave after all and many Tories, especially amongst the lower middle class in the likes of Kent and Essex want to see Britain not only out of the EU but out of the single market with no free movement at all. If May compromises on that in any way some may move to UKIP. Indeed her grammar schools policy is partly an attempt to keep most of them in the Tory tent
"Vote for me, I have contempt for democracy" isn't a great slogan.
I deep freeze sloes for 24 hours if they haven't had a frost on them. This may just be superstition.
You can't just magic into existence an alternative Lib Dem party which makes a soft centre-right pitch and can, therefore, state categorically that it won't prop up any left-wing Government AND make that promise believable to its target voters.
The Tories are the closest party to the centre of public opinion; moreover, May hardly has to worry about the Yellow/Wet Tory vote, which might be somewhat nervous of a less liberal and more traditionalist approach, because they have nowhere else to go. This renders the electoral position of the Conservative Party formidable.
Tory leadership material my arse. A few on here tipped her for leader...
I still don't believe that there are enough target seats available for Ukip as is to challenge Labour for second place. They need to peel off a large chunk from the right of the Tories, as well as traditional WWC votes up North. A realignment will probably be necessary to accomplish this.
Another is that the Tories have to deliver Brexit, now does that mean a hard or soft version. Expect ructions either way, the honeymoon looks to be short lived.
Trump tried almost immediately to capitalise on the event.
Shocks favour Trump, just as they favoured Brexit.
Mori's 34% for Lab is well outside the mean trend.
Essentially, the average VI figures show Con up and Lab down relative to the 2015 GE splits (when we ought to be seeing the exact reverse in any normal Parliament: remember, Ed Miliband enjoyed substantial leads for almost the whole of the last one.) Other parties effectively unchanged. Looking back before that, the Tories have been ahead, and usually by a substantial margin, ever since the election (save for the period in the immediate run up to the EU ref, and even then that was at least as much owing to Ukip spiking as it was to any significant improvement to Labour's position.) In all, quite extraordinary.
Throughout the 2010-15 parliament, Labour did WORSE in local elections than opinion polls indicated every single time. Even in 2012, when they did quite well in the locals, the 6% lead they got there was significantly below the double-digit leads they were getting in the opinion polls at the time. That was a sign that the polling was overstating Labour. By contrast, 2016 saw the first time in ages that Labour did better in elections than the polls were indicating, suggesting the adjustments that pollsters made after 2015 have swung things too far the other way.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-one/10561261/First-World-War-love-letters-from-the-trenches.html
- The LibDems are facing complete extinction
- The Labour Party will top out at 25% in 2020
- UKIP won't pose a threat to anyone except (possibly) a few Northern Labourites
So, Tories 450 seats nailed on in 2020?
Priebus: RNC could block Kasich and Bush from running again if they don't back Trump https://t.co/nK2TzsePAF https://t.co/RVcf5ylppK
"I think people need to get outside this Beltway and get on the road," Priebus said in an interview with CBS host John Dickerson. "This is probably one of the biggest movements as far as people across this country in modern history.
"Where we're at with the voters, one of the last polls I saw ... Republicans, I think it was about 91, 92 percent, we need to do a couple of percentage points better than we're doing as we move forward. Look, people who agreed to support the nominee, who took part in our process, they used tools from the RNC. They agreed to support the nominee. They took part in our process," Priebus said.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ukip-defect-television-tories_uk_57da8c46e4b0d584f7f0105e
http://metro.co.uk/2016/09/16/ukipper-defects-to-tories-says-party-is-a-catastrophic-mess-6131387/
"Ms Phillips told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘There are far too many schisms and divisions which I think at this point are irreparable. There are so many factions in Ukip it becomes a Venn diagram, almost, where my enemy’s enemy is my friend.
‘Part of Nigel stepping down was because a lot of things had ground to a halt."
"Outgoing deputy leader and Ukip MEP Paul Nuttall also admitted that party members may find a ‘new home’ with the Conservatives."
A more evenly divided Left vote will simply make it easier for the Tories to come through the middle and poach a whole raft of what are presently Con/Lab marginals. They would be thrilled.
The Right is more or less united under the Tories, with Ukip only creaming off a minority of hard-Right nationalist votes. They could win a thumping majority even if all they did was hold on to the 37% of the vote that backed Cameron whom, in this scenario, would still have nowhere else to go: SDP Mark 2 would still be centre-left, and could not possibly get close to power without a toxic pact with both the Corbyn Left party and the SNP. Moreover, the fact that the majority of the electorate are, to some degree, right-leaning means that the Tories have the opportunity to do a lot better than that.
Absent any kind of wet soft centre-right challenger, the only way that the Tories can possibly avoid winning the next election at a canter is by trying to undo the Brexit decision, and there is no evidence whatsoever that they have even contemplated such a foolhardy thing.
The AfD is set to enter its 10th German state parliament today (there are 16 federal states) by winning over 11% in the city-state of Berlin
The world economy is weak. Interest rates are at all time lows. The EU is screwing up its weaker economies.
China has a HUGE debt mountain http://tinyurl.com/heg6jz9 and it is growing...
All Labour need is another crash, blame the Tories and a "jam today" policy makes complete sense to disaffected voters..
Don't count unhatched chickens.
The best selling artist from each London borough https://t.co/PeB8PQ1AWA
Great trivia, even if complete cobblers
I wouldn't put much emphasis on any of this - we're talking of a few % either way - but it's wotth keeping in mind.
It seems unlikely that wouldn't affect some voters minds.
Almost nobody who looked at Cameron and Miliband in 2015 and chose Cameron is going to look at May and Corbyn in 2020 and choose Corbyn. The Tories only need to hold what they have to win (and, under the new boundaries, win comfortably.)
The Left has grown too radical for most voters' tastes, and it also cannot realistically get close to a Parliamentary majority without a pact with the SNP, which will bring a great many English voters out in a rash. Even if the economy gets substantially worse over the next few years, I simply don't see any likely scenario under which the Tories could lose the next election.
They might have got a bit further with Phil Broughton, but James is too much the right wing southern Tory. Like Theresa May, but with better social skills and dress sense.
Even in the Euro elections in 2014 under optimal conditions the WWC Labour vote held up well. What do they offer now for that diminishing demographic?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/18/new-ukip-leader-says-she-counts-vladimir-putin-as-a-political-hero
It'd be ironical if the Cold War was finally ended by lots of nationalists agreeing that their rival patriotisms were a reason to cuddle up.
The PB League of Empire Loyalists would be in rapture.
So he doesn't count
Purity before victory comrades.
Or direct action if you prefer......
EU shows us that centralised structure is a disaster.
A cellular alliance of anglosphere sister sovereign states is the way forward.
After a few years of Trump the US congress might even come to their senses and agree a return to legality with Her Majesty.....
SO far I am unimpressed with Mrs May. I may of course be completely wrong but a micromanager is likely to make some big economic and political mistakes. See Gordon Brown.
The Old Commonwealth is neither as ethnically British nor as Anglophile as it once was...
[As an aside, lots of early Queen stuff has some rather nice fantasy imagery/language. A favourite of mine [tatterdemalion] I learnt from Fairy Feller's Master Stroke].