Greetings from Tokyo, which is taking the word "hot" to new dimensions - 10am and sclading and very muggy. I'm posting in refuge from the heat rather than through spineless lack of interest in my surroundings.
Have we ever seen a party just kicked out of government enjoy the poll boost that Labour got almost as soon as the coalition was formed? I have asked on here a few times and no-one has ever been able to point to another example. It occured before anything happened in terms of legislation or the economy, before any promises could be broken. It was a specific reaction to the coalition. We are in uncharted waters.
If you think through the implications, all/virtually all Labour's gains are from disaffected LibDems i.e. that EdM has not "won" any on his own merits.
Therefore, he is at risk from some of those returning to the LDs. And that's probably not something he can necessarily control. Doesn't feel like a particularly secure position
The premise isn't literally true - I know several people who switched over because they like Ed - but I agree that the big switch has always been from left-wing LibDems appalled by the Coalition. That seems a lot more stable and reliable to me than people who switch because they like the look of a leader.
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