I was actually joking about Owen Smith and the ice cream van, but now I found that allegedly he really did offer free ice cream to people in exchange for attending his rally.
If that's not an indication of a failed campaign I don't know what is.
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
I think that the talk about the "moderates" latest plots against the Labour party is going to push Corbyn's numbers even higher.
A few days ago I said that Corbyn might get in the low 60's, but after the BMG polls showing Corbyn's support hovering between 60-75% among Labour voters, plus that Smith's campaign is a shambles, plus today's plots. I'm revising that estimate to the high 60's-low 70's for Corbyn.
It's obvious that Smith is a dead man walking, even Liz Kendall got more people in her rallies:
And that was before the latest plots became public.
The only Labour membership poll we have so far has Corbyn beating Smith 56% to 34%, if the undecideds go to Smith as Corbyn continues to fall to Foot 1983 levels in opinion polls then you are looking at a 55% to 45% Corbyn win which would be a fall of 5% from the 60% he won in 2015 https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/jeremy-corbyn-support-rises-among-party-members/
Yes, but then added to that you have the £25 members who even Smith's team say are likely to be breaking 2 to 1 in favour of Corbyn.. and after paying £25 only a week or so ago, they are highly unlikely to change their minds. I agree with speedy and would reckon on at least 65% in favour of Corbyn and if the members from January onwards get their votes reinstated in a court case, then that figure could easily go above 70%
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
I think that the talk about the "moderates" latest plots against the Labour party is going to push Corbyn's numbers even higher.
A few days ago I said that Corbyn might get in the low 60's, but after the BMG polls showing Corbyn's support hovering between 60-75% among Labour voters, plus that Smith's campaign is a shambles, plus today's plots. I'm revising that estimate to the high 60's-low 70's for Corbyn.
It's obvious that Smith is a dead man walking, even Liz Kendall got more people in her rallies:
And that was before the latest plots became public.
The only Labour membership poll we have so far has Corbyn beating Smith 56% to 34%, if the undecideds go to Smith as Corbyn continues to fall to Foot 1983 levels in opinion polls then you are looking at a 55% to 45% Corbyn win which would be a fall of 5% from the 60% he won in 2015 https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/jeremy-corbyn-support-rises-among-party-members/
Ah HYUFD, the Labour leadership contest ended the moment Owen Smith opened his mouth.
If Corbyn is getting 60% among 2015 Labour voters and 75% among current Labour voters you know he is going to get an even larger number among Labour members.
The latest plots have only helped Corbyn, it made it from a referendum about him to a referendum about them.
Labour is presently polling 27 or 28% so the only Labour voters left are those who would have backed the party even under Michael Foot, Labour voters are not Labour members. Labour members are normally left of Labour voters but they may actually be slightly right of those still mad enough to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party
Evening all. - 'not just bad for Labour, but for the country as a whole'
Not much the blue team can do about that though is there! – Meanwhile, the soul priority of Jeremy Corbyn and the bulk of the membership are fighting for a Labour party, grounded in the far-left spectrum of politics. – It did for their election hopes no good in the 1980s, it will do even less in a new millennium. But as Kinnock once said, they’ll have their party back.
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
You may well be correct there in your analysis, but since when has the unsuitability of a candidate to become Prime Minister been a major factor when Labour comes to the matter of choosing its leader?
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
Rather than chase disaffected shire Tories, there is much more fertile ground in the disaffected Labour North. Corbyn is so far from traditional working class Labour voters* that it must be an almost irresistible lure for the new kipper-in-chief.
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Yes, I fear that (even for PB) we are banging on about local by elections too much. Don't UKIP have a tendency of doing crap at by elections and much better at the actual locals?
I think that the talk about the "moderates" latest plots against the Labour party is going to push Corbyn's numbers even higher.
A few days ago I said that Corbyn might get in the low 60's, but after the BMG polls showing Corbyn's support hovering between 60-75% among Labour voters, plus that Smith's campaign is a shambles, plus today's plots. I'm revising that estimate to the high 60's-low 70's for Corbyn.
It's obvious that Smith is a dead man walking, even Liz Kendall got more people in her rallies:
And that was before the latest plots became public.
The only Labour membership poll we have so far has Corbyn beating Smith 56% to 34%, if the undecideds go to Smith as Corbyn continues to fall to Foot 1983 levels in opinion polls then you are looking at a 55% to 45% Corbyn win which would be a fall of 5% from the 60% he won in 2015 https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/jeremy-corbyn-support-rises-among-party-members/
Yes, but then added to that you have the £25 members who even Smith's team say are likely to be breaking 2 to 1 in favour of Corbyn.. and after paying £25 only a week or so ago, they are highly unlikely to change their minds. I agree with speedy and would reckon on at least 65% in favour of Corbyn and if the members from January onwards get their votes reinstated in a court case, then that figure could easily go above 70%
Depends, others have said many of them back Smith
I think you only have to look at the pics posted earlier showing attendance at rallies today to know which contender people are more likely to be paying good money to vote for.
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
Rather than chase disaffected shire Tories, there is much more fertile ground in the disaffected Labour North. Corbyn is so far from traditional working class Labour voters* that it must be an almost irresistible lure for the new kipper-in-chief.
* Voters not members!
Would be a huge shift in positioning, if they can pull it off!
To think it is only a few years since commentators, including many on PB, were painting UKIP as an existential threat to the Tory party...
Real Clear Politics has Clinton 0.4% ahead on average of polls. 538 has Clinton by under 2%. Both much too close for comfort. http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/
I was actually joking about Owen Smith and the ice cream van, but now I found that allegedly he really did offer free ice cream to people in exchange for attending his rally.
If that's not an indication of a failed campaign I don't know what is.
On par with Jeb's "please clap" .
I thought the saddest thing about Jeb's campaign was the exclamation mark. When you have to say how exciting you are - you obviously aren't.
Real Clear Politics has Clinton 0.4% ahead on average of polls. 538 has Clinton by under 2%. Both much too close for comfort. http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/
Rasmussen had Hillary ahead with independents on Thursday
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
This is a gamble on whether Corby gets to lose an election, or not. If he makes it to and beyond a 2020 GE, it's the next generation that will be in play - the likes of Creasy etc.
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
You may well be correct there in your analysis, but since when has the unsuitability of a candidate to become Prime Minister been a major factor when Labour comes to the matter of choosing its leader?
True considering they have only picked one election winning PM, Blair and Wilson was elected by MPs. Mind you Tory members are not perfect either preferring IDS over Clarke. For now Labour clearly does not want to win, so we are really looking ahead at least a decade
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Yes, I fear that (even for PB) we are banging on about local by elections too much. Don't UKIP have a tendency of doing crap at by elections and much better at the actual locals?
Today we are all faffing about looking for something to discuss, since it's pretty much the first day for five whole weeks where sod all has actually happened.
" Need a politician elected? By selecting your preferred outcome and predicting it in a “prophetic” manner, you can manipulate people into helping you make it happen!
But on the other hand, what if your prediction is wrong? Won’t that undermine your standing as a “prophet of God”.
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
Rather than chase disaffected shire Tories, there is much more fertile ground in the disaffected Labour North. Corbyn is so far from traditional working class Labour voters* that it must be an almost irresistible lure for the new kipper-in-chief.
* Voters not members!
Indeed and Banks has a big database of Leave voters for UKIP to target
I think that the talk about the "moderates" latest plots against the Labour party is going to push Corbyn's numbers even higher.
A few days ago I said that Corbyn might get in the low 60's, but after the BMG polls showing Corbyn's support hovering between 60-75% among Labour voters, plus that Smith's campaign is a shambles, plus today's plots. I'm revising that estimate to the high 60's-low 70's for Corbyn.
It's obvious that Smith is a dead man walking, even Liz Kendall got more people in her rallies:
And that was before the latest plots became public.
The only Labour membership poll we have so far has Corbyn beating Smith 56% to 34%, if the undecideds go to Smith as Corbyn continues to fall to Foot 1983 levels in opinion polls then you are looking at a 55% to 45% Corbyn win which would be a fall of 5% from the 60% he won in 2015 https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/jeremy-corbyn-support-rises-among-party-members/
Yes, but then added to that you have the £25 members who even Smith's team say are likely to be breaking 2 to 1 in favour of Corbyn.. and after paying £25 only a week or so ago, they are highly unlikely to change their minds. I agree with speedy and would reckon on at least 65% in favour of Corbyn and if the members from January onwards get their votes reinstated in a court case, then that figure could easily go above 70%
Depends, others have said many of them back Smith
I think you only have to look at the pics posted earlier showing attendance at rallies today to know which contender people are more likely to be paying good money to vote for.
Most of them will already have been registered supporters last September too
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
Rather than chase disaffected shire Tories, there is much more fertile ground in the disaffected Labour North. Corbyn is so far from traditional working class Labour voters* that it must be an almost irresistible lure for the new kipper-in-chief.
* Voters not members!
Would be a huge shift in positioning, if they can pull it off!
To think it is only a few years since commentators, including many on PB, were painting UKIP as an existential threat to the Tory party...
It would have been, if Remain had won narrowly, with most Conservatives having voted Leave.
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Have placed long term bets on one or two contenders in that market. Most of my betting though has been to lay Owen Smith, currently 6-6.4 on Betfair as opposed to above 8 in the leadership contest market. Yes, I know he could lose the leadership contest and come back in 4 years time, but that is pretty unlikely, there will be more capable challengers then and his credentials will have probably suffered a terminal blow.
Built up quite a nice little nest egg for the future covering any and all possibilities (excluding Owen Smith)
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Yes, I fear that (even for PB) we are banging on about local by elections too much. Don't UKIP have a tendency of doing crap at by elections and much better at the actual locals?
Maybe, but they then go and lose the councillors to defections or defeat.
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
Rather than chase disaffected shire Tories, there is much more fertile ground in the disaffected Labour North. Corbyn is so far from traditional working class Labour voters* that it must be an almost irresistible lure for the new kipper-in-chief.
* Voters not members!
Would be a huge shift in positioning, if they can pull it off!
To think it is only a few years since commentators, including many on PB, were painting UKIP as an existential threat to the Tory party...
If May agrees some free movement the Tories will not be immune to UKIP either in seats like Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Harlow, Thanet South, Boston and Rochester and Strood
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Yes, I fear that (even for PB) we are banging on about local by elections too much. Don't UKIP have a tendency of doing crap at by elections and much better at the actual locals?
Maybe, but they then go and lose the councillors to defections or defeat.
Yeah, but my point was that by elections typically aren't a useful guide for how successful they will be at a future election. Saying that, their raison d'etre is accomplished, so unsurprising they are falling back. This may benefit the Tories at first, given Labour's current state.
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
That backswing may be several elections away still...
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
This is a gamble on whether Corby gets to lose an election, or not. If he makes it to and beyond a 2020 GE, it's the next generation that will be in play - the likes of Creasy etc.
Chuka is two years younger than Stella Creasy, he has time on his hands
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
You may well be correct there in your analysis, but since when has the unsuitability of a candidate to become Prime Minister been a major factor when Labour comes to the matter of choosing its leader?
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Yes, I fear that (even for PB) we are banging on about local by elections too much. Don't UKIP have a tendency of doing crap at by elections and much better at the actual locals?
Today we are all faffing about looking for something to discuss, since it's pretty much the first day for five whole weeks where sod all has actually happened.
I've got so used to being hopelessly unable to keep up with threads, that it's quite a surprise to find I can dip in & out and find I'm keeping up.
But after recent weeks/months, a little boredom doesn't come amiss.
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
This is a gamble on whether Corby gets to lose an election, or not. If he makes it to and beyond a 2020 GE, it's the next generation that will be in play - the likes of Creasy etc.
Chuka is two years younger than Stella Creasy, he has time on his hands
Chukka may even be de-selected before he has a chance to become leader.
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
That backswing may be several elections away still...
Well, if you are Corbyn or evidently 60-70 per cent of the Labour Party, it beats getting Blair again but sooner. (What the Simpsons called "The Max Power way" - wrong but faster.) Easy to forget that it seemed in 2015 that Labour under Harman was preparing its members to accept "hard choices" on benefits and foreigners, which is of course a euphemism for easy choices.
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
It will never come, either the Tories become like the Japanese LDs were and effectively the perpetual party of government or a new centre left party is formed with defectors from Labour and the LDs. The UK could even become like Poland with a centre right Tory like party and a populist UKIP type party both winning recent elections and the centre left party third
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Yes, I fear that (even for PB) we are banging on about local by elections too much. Don't UKIP have a tendency of doing crap at by elections and much better at the actual locals?
Today we are all faffing about looking for something to discuss, since it's pretty much the first day for five whole weeks where sod all has actually happened.
I've got so used to being hopelessly unable to keep up with threads, that it's quite a surprise to find I can dip in & out and find I'm keeping up.
But after recent weeks/months, a little boredom doesn't come amiss.
It's cold turkey for many of us, nevertheless. If it were not for our Southam's wonderings aloud about why on earth he set sail with Labour, we would all be truly bereft....
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
This is a gamble on whether Corby gets to lose an election, or not. If he makes it to and beyond a 2020 GE, it's the next generation that will be in play - the likes of Creasy etc.
Chuka is two years younger than Stella Creasy, he has time on his hands
He is absolute crap though. Sounds and looks like a snake oil salesman.
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Mon...[snip lots of senile dribbling bollocks]...ctions - vanishing .
To UKIP (and all freedom lovers everywhere) June 23rd was the only vote that matters. not a parish council by-election in Nowhereingham-On-Sea.
There is something clearly mentally defective about those who deride council by elections in major towns and cities such as Newport and London as being parish elections in made up names .
They're interesting up to a point, but still small beer, compared to the major contests.
Yes, I fear that (even for PB) we are banging on about local by elections too much. Don't UKIP have a tendency of doing crap at by elections and much better at the actual locals?
Today we are all faffing about looking for something to discuss, since it's pretty much the first day for five whole weeks where sod all has actually happened.
I've got so used to being hopelessly unable to keep up with threads, that it's quite a surprise to find I can dip in & out and find I'm keeping up.
But after recent weeks/months, a little boredom doesn't come amiss.
The Labour situation is boring and tedious in the extreme. July 2016 is slipping into oblivion: will we ever see it's like again? Probably, when the next war is declared.
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
This is a gamble on whether Corby gets to lose an election, or not. If he makes it to and beyond a 2020 GE, it's the next generation that will be in play - the likes of Creasy etc.
Chuka is two years younger than Stella Creasy, he has time on his hands
Chukka may even be de-selected before he has a chance to become leader.
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
This is a gamble on whether Corby gets to lose an election, or not. If he makes it to and beyond a 2020 GE, it's the next generation that will be in play - the likes of Creasy etc.
Chuka is two years younger than Stella Creasy, he has time on his hands
He is absolute crap though. Sounds and looks like a snake oil salesman.
There will be celebrations over at Housepricecrash tonight.
Landlords to be hit by new £5,000 Green Tax.
Basically anyone who is letting out a property after 2018 will have to pay to upgrade the property to energy band E. Things like new boilers insulation and the like. They will also no longer be elegible for green deal loans (which apparently have to be repaid by tenants (wtf?) and will have to pay out of their own pockets or get commercial loans.
Article dosent say but presumably the suandard will rise to D C B and A in stages in future years.
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
It will never come, either the Tories become like the Japanese LDs were and effectively the perpetual party of government or a new centre left party is formed with defectors from Labour and the LDs. The UK could even become like Poland with a centre right Tory like party and a populist UKIP type party both winning recent elections and the centre left party third
Whilst possible/probable, to bet the house on such a scenario implies a level of economic certainty that we just don't have right now. If, either, Brexit turns out towards the bottom end of the project fear projections, or the whole world's economy is pitched into crisis by some Japanese or Eurozone calamity, all bets are off. In those circumstances I can see people voting for whatever looks like the most significant alternative at the time, which may well be Corbyn's lot.
For those sufficiently patient, i.e. prepared to wait for up to 4 years or even longer for the result of their wagers to be determined, now might be the time for a punt on the "Next Labour Leader" market, where some of the odds available look quite compelling. Examples are as follows:
Clive Lewis* .......... 16/1 (Various) Dan Jarvis ............. 22/1 (PP, Betfair Sports) Lisa Nandy* .......... 22/1 (Corals) Chuka Umunna ..... 28/1 (Corals) Keir Starmer ......... 33/1 (Corals) Etc, etc.
* As previously recommended by HenryG
DYOR.
Umunna and Jarvis the only potential PMs there
This is a gamble on whether Corby gets to lose an election, or not. If he makes it to and beyond a 2020 GE, it's the next generation that will be in play - the likes of Creasy etc.
Chuka is two years younger than Stella Creasy, he has time on his hands
He is absolute crap though. Sounds and looks like a snake oil salesman.
A bit harsh MrG - Chuka Umunna looks as though he could, possibly fit in with every other party, bar Labour. – Same goes for Tristam Hunt, fine as an academic or the BBC’s go to historian, but for a Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent, wtf were they thinking of
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
That backswing may be several elections away still...
Well, if you are Corbyn or evidently 60-70 per cent of the Labour Party, it beats getting Blair again but sooner. (What the Simpsons called "The Max Power way" - wrong but faster.) Easy to forget that it seemed in 2015 that Labour under Harman was preparing its members to accept "hard choices" on benefits and foreigners, which is of course a euphemism for easy choices.
In Poland the centre left came third in the last presidential election then failed to meet the threshold in the parliamentary election, Polish elections are now effectively between the Tories and UKIP. Labour has no god given right to return to power
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
Very much what SLAB thought. Or the Liberals in the Twenties.
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
Rather than chase disaffected shire Tories, there is much more fertile ground in the disaffected Labour North. Corbyn is so far from traditional working class Labour voters* that it must be an almost irresistible lure for the new kipper-in-chief.
* Voters not members!
Would be a huge shift in positioning, if they can pull it off!
To think it is only a few years since commentators, including many on PB, were painting UKIP as an existential threat to the Tory party...
If May agrees some free movement the Tories will not be immune to UKIP either in seats like Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Harlow, Thanet South, Boston and Rochester and Strood
Not by much though. They won those seats in2015 while favouring free movement.
If Corbyn and friends hold on to reshape the parliamentary party, then they just have to wait for the backswing of the electoral pendulum to achieve the greatest upheaval in British politics, greater than Brexit. Unless you think the Lib Dems are going to be the next official opposition. Or a party with less than two MPs. Next to no-one is passionate about a left-of-LD alternative to Corbyn Labour. Owen Smith is the answer to no question. When will acceptance come?
Very much what SLAB thought. Or the Liberals in the Twenties.
That may be so, but looking at the position they were in, and Lab is now, it still seems like the brand has too many inherent strengths remaining in England at least. It's not assured long term, but they can hold on.
And UKIP has a strategic problem in that it has positioned itself as socially fairly and economically very liberal, whereas the wwc that now looks like its most promising constituency is neither.
UKIP socially liberal ?! You are having a giraffe, what about all those "back to the 1950's" and wife/sink jokes of last year ? All the need to do is move the economic policy a bit more "Old Labour" and they are ideally set to pick up disaffected WWC votes.
Indeed, UKIP were the only party to oppose gay marriage for example and at the last election promised more money for the NHS and pensioners on a similar premise to Leave
OK, fair comment, although I think they are somewhat compromised by their libertarian leanings on a few social issues. But there is no denying that their economic stance is seriously out of kilter with their new target audience.
Farage was a libertarian, the next leader is highly likely not to be
Rather than chase disaffected shire Tories, there is much more fertile ground in the disaffected Labour North. Corbyn is so far from traditional working class Labour voters* that it must be an almost irresistible lure for the new kipper-in-chief.
* Voters not members!
Would be a huge shift in positioning, if they can pull it off!
To think it is only a few years since commentators, including many on PB, were painting UKIP as an existential threat to the Tory party...
UKIP has already drifted a long way from a libertarian platform. There will be no return to that given the Leave vote in traditional Labour areas.
I foresee a slide toward a nationalist populist party, perhaps presented to the electorate in a similar way to the SNP but with 'immigration' and 'Islam' as the new 'English' and 'Westminster'.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
I'm not prepared at this point to be so bold in language, but from the very beginning claims about Corbyn's plain speaking and other supposedly unique attributes of his contrasted with 'career' politicians, has seen a little suspect to me. He's pursued a different path than many, but he's been in politics a long time, he plays the game his way sometimes, and in the last year in particular has shown some canniness.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
Southam (or should I say Joff) you write well and from the heart. I suspect you equate the need for an opposition party of the left (which I agree with) with Labour (which I detest). I think the death of Labour would be a tremendous public good, as it would enable the birth of a new and less vile centre left party to come into play.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
Southam (or should I say Joff) you write well and from the heart. I suspect you equate the need for an opposition party of the left (which I agree with) with Labour (which I detest). I think the death of Labour would be a tremendous public good, as it would enable the birth of a new and less vile centre left party to come into play.
+1 despite being left of centre I regard the centralising authoritarians of the Labour Party in the same way as you. The sooner this party and its outdated class-based view of politics are consigned to the dustbin of history the better.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
Southam (or should I say Joff) you write well and from the heart. I suspect you equate the need for an opposition party of the left (which I agree with) with Labour (which I detest). I think the death of Labour would be a tremendous public good, as it would enable the birth of a new and less vile centre left party to come into play.
I'm inclined to agree. Seems to me a party of the left which returned to 'owing more to Methodism than Marxism' would be a very good thing.
Excellent piece. Labour know it is suicide to split. At local/regional level Labour will need to stick together to keep power at councils. Does anyone know if SDP ran candidates at Council level?
Yes, from the outset. Lots of arguments where Liberals had already been working a ward!
Very interesting. I would love a proper split.Only way Tories can win in big cities.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
Southam (or should I say Joff) you write well and from the heart. I suspect you equate the need for an opposition party of the left (which I agree with) with Labour (which I detest). I think the death of Labour would be a tremendous public good, as it would enable the birth of a new and less vile centre left party to come into play.
I'm inclined to agree. Seems to me a party of the left which returned to 'owing more to Methodism than Marxism' would be a very good thing.
OT. I actually think that Corbyn and McDonnell are right.
It was trade unionists standing together andstriking that forced reform - to allow the right to organise and be legal, to strike and to gain better conditions.
Parliamentary representation came out of this direct action not the other way round.
The problem Labour faces is that it is a victim of its own success. By 1950 it had achieved far more than those founding trade unionists ever thought possible.
As a result interest dwindled as causes became less significant and this allowed obsessives to have more inluence to peddle their own obsession.
Also the prosperity it brought the working classes turned them into tory voting middle classes and to counter the loss of support Labour embraced identity politics which led to Rotherham.
The problem for Corbyn and McDonnell is that the issues we face today are nowhere near as bad (other than for un unfortunate few) to motivate the many into the sort of standing together solidarity that would bring the country to its knees and force reform. The post industrial workplace is also far more atomised making any attempt futile.
Corbyn is basically therefore pissing in the wind as he wont get the solidarity to force these reforms. That power is lost and the decay in parliamentary representive numbers is perhaps a reflection of this.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
Southam (or should I say Joff) you write well and from the heart. I suspect you equate the need for an opposition party of the left (which I agree with) with Labour (which I detest). I think the death of Labour would be a tremendous public good, as it would enable the birth of a new and less vile centre left party to come into play.
I'm inclined to agree. Seems to me a party of the left which returned to 'owing more to Methodism than Marxism' would be a very good thing.
Under FPTP, Labour is the only game in town.
Yes, that seems to be true - until some sequence of events occurs that tips all those automatic Labour voters into another camp.
OT. I actually think that Corbyn and McDonnell are right.
It was trade unionists standing together andstriking that forced reform - to allow the right to organise and be legal, to strike and to gain better conditions.
Parliamentary representation came out of this direct action not the other way round.
The problem Labour faces is that it is a victim of its own success. By 1950 it had achieved far more than those founding trade unionists ever thought possible.
As a result interest dwindled as causes became less significant and this allowed obsessives to have more inluence to peddle their own obsession.
Also the prosperity it brought the working classes turned them into tory voting middle classes and to counter the loss of support Labour embraced identity politics which led to Rotherham.
The problem for Corbyn and McDonnell is that the issues we face today are nowhere near as bad (other than for un unfortunate few) to motivate the many into the sort of standing together solidarity that would bring the country to its knees and force reform. The post industrial workplace is also far more atomised making any attempt futile.
Corbyn is basically therefore pissing in the wind as he wont get the solidarity to force these reforms. That power is lost and the decay in parliamentary representive numbers is perhaps a reflection of this.
Wherefore. I really don't know.
And, more fundamantally, the whole mindset which this (virtuous and heroic) struggle threw up, of class solidarity, championing of interest groups, centralised control, party lines, and suppression of individuality, is now hopelessly out of touch with the modern, fragmented, self-actualising world.
/edit at least in the developed west. Which is, of course, why Corby et al enjoy going round the world looking for places where their political view still works; so much easier than changing your outlook to reflect the society in which you actually live.
The PLP have played a bad hand badly, you either let Corbyn fail on his own terms or you make absolutely sure you can kick him out (they should have moved much sooner when they were in a stronger position with regards the NEC).
But even so, Corbyn is a terrible leader with very few policies (and the policies he does have are terrible). He'll do badly in the next general election, if the hard left tries to cling on it will continue to do badly. I know this seems a long time but sadly these things do take a long time to play out, but at some point the sane part of the Labour party will be able to wrest power back.
Mr. HYUFD, that's like arguing a football team who got 13 corners to the opponent's 7 only lost 2-1 because only goals counted towards the scoreline.
No it is politically realistic. If May agrees some free movement then UKIP will instantly become the effective opposition, it is only the FPTP system which holds them back, had PR been used at the last election and MPs were awarded in proportion to national voteshare UKIP would have won 84 MPs rather than just one. Even under FPTP if their voteshare starts to go up then they may well win by-elections in Labour working class northern and Midlands towns while Corbyn leads the party and also Tory seats in the likes of Essex and Kent if any seats come up there
UKIP are sinking like a stone in every measurable way . Membership - down , Money - they have none , Councillors - defecting or resigning , Candidates - cannot find many to stand , Votes in local elections - vanishing .
But UKIP won big, on June 23rd, permanently and irrevocably. They persuaded 52% of the voters to leave the EU. What's a handful of local by-elections by comparison?
They definitely won the war - the peace is still up for grabs however...
Joff, I like reading your articles, but the fact that you get all this praise by the pbCOM swivel eyes should worry you.
Well, like Dan Hodges before May 2015 it is what a lot of people want to hear, but it could still prove true. I think it a little pessimistic myself though. The PLP have played it very badly, and I think the impasse for all but a few may be ended if Corbyn wins big, there isn't the drive to really push back again.
Thanks for all the kind words about the article. One day, I'd like to write a hopeful one about the Labour party. I may not get the chance given my age.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
Southam (or should I say Joff) you write well and from the heart. I suspect you equate the need for an opposition party of the left (which I agree with) with Labour (which I detest). I think the death of Labour would be a tremendous public good, as it would enable the birth of a new and less vile centre left party to come into play.
I'm inclined to agree. Seems to me a party of the left which returned to 'owing more to Methodism than Marxism' would be a very good thing.
Under FPTP, Labour is the only game in town.
I expect a hundred or so years ago the Liberals were saying the same thing.
The PLP have played a bad hand badly, you either let Corbyn fail on his own terms or you make absolutely sure you can kick him out (they should have moved much sooner when they were in a stronger position with regards the NEC).
But even so, Corbyn is a terrible leader with very few policies (and the policies he does have are terrible). He'll do badly in the next general election, if the hard left tries to cling on it will continue to do badly. I know this seems a long time but sadly these things do take a long time to play out, but at some point the sane part of the Labour party will be able to wrest power back.
If Corbyn is not interested in parliamentary success and Labour membership overwhelmingly shares that disinterest, he'll likely die in the job and McDonnell will be a shoo in to replace him. Only the PLP can affect that and then only if they kill Corbynism before it kills them. This is diminishingly likely/ possible.
The PLP must immediately declare parliamentary UDI if (when?) OS is defeated. What fun.
How many Electoral college votes would Britain have just out of interest?
Well California has somewhere in the 50s I believe, and we have half again as much population, so 70 or so I guess, although since the number is I think defined by how many congressional representatives and senators there are, I don't know if there would be a reapportionment of everyone else as our inclusion changed things up.
Joff, I like reading your articles, but the fact that you get all this praise by the pbCOM swivel eyes should worry you.
Well, like Dan Hodges before May 2015 it is what a lot of people want to hear, but it could still prove true. I think it a little pessimistic myself though. The PLP have played it very badly, and I think the impasse for all but a few may be ended if Corbyn wins big, there isn't the drive to really push back again.
It may well be that the realistic way forward for the left is to hang in there until the hard-left faction loses often enough to disillusion voters and to be disillusioned themselves.
By then, new thinkers will have emerged with a better idea of what is required of the left in the modern age, and another Kinnock-like figure may arise who has what it takes to rid the party of those clinging to the ideas of the last century.
The PLP have played a bad hand badly, you either let Corbyn fail on his own terms or you make absolutely sure you can kick him out (they should have moved much sooner when they were in a stronger position with regards the NEC).
But even so, Corbyn is a terrible leader with very few policies (and the policies he does have are terrible). He'll do badly in the next general election, if the hard left tries to cling on it will continue to do badly. I know this seems a long time but sadly these things do take a long time to play out, but at some point the sane part of the Labour party will be able to wrest power back.
If Corbyn is not interested in parliamentary success and Labour membership overwhelmingly shares that disinterest, he'll likely die in the job and McDonnell will be a shoo in to replace him. Only the PLP can affect that and then only if they kill Corbynism before it kills them. This is diminishingly likely/ possible.
The PLP must immediately declare parliamentary UDI if (when?) OS is defeated. What fun.
Withiut the Labour name and assets they are nothing.
Joff, I like reading your articles, but the fact that you get all this praise by the pbCOM swivel eyes should worry you.
Well, like Dan Hodges before May 2015 it is what a lot of people want to hear, but it could still prove true. I think it a little pessimistic myself though. The PLP have played it very badly, and I think the impasse for all but a few may be ended if Corbyn wins big, there isn't the drive to really push back again.
It may well be that the realistic way forward for the left is to hang in there until the hard-left faction loses often enough to disillusion voters and to be disillusioned themselves.
By then, new thinkers will have emerged with a better idea of what is required of the left in the modern age, and another Kinnock-like figure may arise who has what it takes to rid the party of those clinging to the ideas of the last century.
I'm not sure hanging in there is an option. If the Corbynistas don't get them Joe Public will.
How many Electoral college votes would Britain have just out of interest?
Well California has somewhere in the 50s I believe, and we have half again as much population, so 70 or so I guess, although since the number is I think defined by how many congressional representatives and senators there are, I don't know if there would be a reapportionment of everyone else as our inclusion changed things up.
Englan 75 reps Scotland 7 Wales 4 NI 3
(again rounded to nearest rep, added to the current USA House of 435).
Im convinced Corbyn wont ever be allowed to fail on his own terms, because he wont acknowlesge that he is the problem.. A huge general election loss will be blamed on the plp, the media, the electorate...anyone but JC himself.
The PLP have played a bad hand badly, you either let Corbyn fail on his own terms or you make absolutely sure you can kick him out (they should have moved much sooner when they were in a stronger position with regards the NEC).
But even so, Corbyn is a terrible leader with very few policies (and the policies he does have are terrible). He'll do badly in the next general election, if the hard left tries to cling on it will continue to do badly. I know this seems a long time but sadly these things do take a long time to play out, but at some point the sane part of the Labour party will be able to wrest power back.
If Corbyn is not interested in parliamentary success and Labour membership overwhelmingly shares that disinterest, he'll likely die in the job and McDonnell will be a shoo in to replace him. Only the PLP can affect that and then only if they kill Corbynism before it kills them. This is diminishingly likely/ possible.
The PLP must immediately declare parliamentary UDI if (when?) OS is defeated. What fun.
Withiut the Labour name and assets they are nothing.
UDI = deselection
The PLP is reaping the rewards they deserve.
I see no way for them to remain
I tend to agree but wouldn't it be more seemly for them to go down fighting?
Joff, I like reading your articles, but the fact that you get all this praise by the pbCOM swivel eyes should worry you.
Well, like Dan Hodges before May 2015 it is what a lot of people want to hear, but it could still prove true. I think it a little pessimistic myself though. The PLP have played it very badly, and I think the impasse for all but a few may be ended if Corbyn wins big, there isn't the drive to really push back again.
It may well be that the realistic way forward for the left is to hang in there until the hard-left faction loses often enough to disillusion voters and to be disillusioned themselves.
By then, new thinkers will have emerged with a better idea of what is required of the left in the modern age, and another Kinnock-like figure may arise who has what it takes to rid the party of those clinging to the ideas of the last century.
I'm not sure hanging in there is an option. If the Corbynistas don't get them Joe Public will.
Even under Corbyn, if they survive deselection attempts, Labour will retain 150 or so members, possible more if the Tories screw up. There are so many seats that are completely safe so long as there is no split, no matter how bad the leader is (yes yes, the Liberals etc etc, but even considering that there doesn't seem, in England, anyone who can really take advantage, for all UKIP might like to), so there is time.
Comments
If that's not an indication of a failed campaign I don't know what is.
On par with Jeb's "please clap" .
Grim data for Hillary.
Not much the blue team can do about that though is there! – Meanwhile, the soul priority of Jeremy Corbyn and the bulk of the membership are fighting for a Labour party, grounded in the far-left spectrum of politics. – It did for their election hopes no good in the 1980s, it will do even less in a new millennium. But as Kinnock once said, they’ll have their party back.
[edit] Oops, thanks for the thread Mr Observer.
* Voters not members!
To think it is only a few years since commentators, including many on PB, were painting UKIP as an existential threat to the Tory party...
538 has Clinton by under 2%. Both much too close for comfort.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/
Though it may be shorter as Jezza is as useless at putting pen to paper as everything else.
But on the other hand, what if your prediction is wrong? Won’t that undermine your standing as a “prophet of God”.
Fortunately, the answer is “No”!
Does that apply to PB posters too? ;-)
Built up quite a nice little nest egg for the future covering any and all possibilities (excluding Owen Smith)
But after recent weeks/months, a little boredom doesn't come amiss.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/corbynites-attack-stitchup-as-streatham-labour-party-backs-owen-smith-a3307496.html
Landlords to be hit by new £5,000 Green Tax.
Basically anyone who is letting out a property after 2018 will have to pay to upgrade the property to energy band E. Things like new boilers insulation and the like. They will also no longer be elegible for green deal loans (which apparently have to be repaid by tenants (wtf?) and will have to pay out of their own pockets or get commercial loans.
Article dosent say but presumably the suandard will rise to D C B and A in stages in future years.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/30/green-tax-to-hit-landlords-with-5000-bill-on-buy-to-let-homes/
I foresee a slide toward a nationalist populist party, perhaps presented to the electorate in a similar way to the SNP but with 'immigration' and 'Islam' as the new 'English' and 'Westminster'.
A thought for you all: in refusing the TV debate with Smith Corbyn is behaving exactly like the career politician he says he is not. Sanctimonious hypocrisy has alwsys been a weakness on the left. Corbyn has it in spades.
(c) Momentum
I assume you are about 25 then. I'm not prepared at this point to be so bold in language, but from the very beginning claims about Corbyn's plain speaking and other supposedly unique attributes of his contrasted with 'career' politicians, has seen a little suspect to me. He's pursued a different path than many, but he's been in politics a long time, he plays the game his way sometimes, and in the last year in particular has shown some canniness.
Their petrol is called Momentum. Should I fear a conspiracy?
It was trade unionists standing together andstriking that forced reform - to allow the right to organise and be legal, to strike and to gain better conditions.
Parliamentary representation came out of this direct action not the other way round.
The problem Labour faces is that it is a victim of its own success. By 1950 it had achieved far more than those founding trade unionists ever thought possible.
As a result interest dwindled as causes became less significant and this allowed obsessives to have more inluence to peddle their own obsession.
Also the prosperity it brought the working classes turned them into tory voting middle classes and to counter the loss of support Labour embraced identity politics which led to Rotherham.
The problem for Corbyn and McDonnell is that the issues we face today are nowhere near as bad (other than for un unfortunate few) to motivate the many into the sort of standing together solidarity that would bring the country to its knees and force reform. The post industrial workplace is also far more atomised making any attempt futile.
Corbyn is basically therefore pissing in the wind as he wont get the solidarity to force these reforms. That power is lost and the decay in parliamentary representive numbers is perhaps a reflection of this.
Wherefore. I really don't know.
/edit at least in the developed west. Which is, of course, why Corby et al enjoy going round the world looking for places where their political view still works; so much easier than changing your outlook to reflect the society in which you actually live.
But even so, Corbyn is a terrible leader with very few policies (and the policies he does have are terrible). He'll do badly in the next general election, if the hard left tries to cling on it will continue to do badly. I know this seems a long time but sadly these things do take a long time to play out, but at some point the sane part of the Labour party will be able to wrest power back.
The PLP must immediately declare parliamentary UDI if (when?) OS is defeated. What fun.
Scotland 9
Wales 5
NI 3
(to the nearest whole EC vote)
He;s not the Messiah he is a very naughty boy said Smith.
Very good but of course not factually correct as JC clearly is the Messiah!!
Even got same initials.
By then, new thinkers will have emerged with a better idea of what is required of the left in the modern age, and another Kinnock-like figure may arise who has what it takes to rid the party of those clinging to the ideas of the last century.
UDI = deselection
The PLP is reaping the rewards they deserve.
I see no way for them to remain
UK 80
CA 47 (from 55)
TX 32 (from 38)
NY/FL 25 (from 29)
Can't see how you'd get 110 without increasing the size of the college.
Scotland 7
Wales 4
NI 3
(again rounded to nearest rep, added to the current USA House of 435).
Pushing Joffs view that a moderate Tory win is better than a Corbyn win and then claiming the left arent concerned about winning