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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory YouGov mini-surge seems to be over

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  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    DavidL said:

    What has been interesting in Dundee (and more than slightly worrying from the referendum point of view) is how this can fall apart when the gap between the union paid staff and the members becomes too great. We have seen nothing like the sort of organised canvassing etc we used to get in Dundee and the SNP have filled the gap. Hence they now have the seats.

    While I will concede that the superior SNP ground game has been important in Dundee, it is far from being the only factor. At least as important has been the local Labour Party's almost willful destruction of the goodwill they used to once engender; the final manifestation of which was that disastrous Lib-Lab-Con coalition designed to keep the largest group, the SNP, out.

    In order to become electable again, SLab needs to become likeable again. A toughie when they just aren't attracting the calibre of candidates they used to have 20, 30, 40 years ago.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    A question for PB moderators please.

    Below I commented on the McCann case and tim responded to this by quoting Dan Hodges tweets to support his historic very negative assertions on this matter as it relates to Cameron.

    This to me was 'amusing' given the flack the left give him.

    That post has now disappeared is that because tim realises it looks a poor line to have taken and can remove it himself and alter the thread trail OR is it because the way he presented his line was moderated?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Use this if you like

    http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/total_spending_2010UKbn

    In addition to Osborne spending more than Labour did he plans to fight the next election on a pledge to spend more than Brown as Chancellor did as a % of GDP and claim it's "disciplined"
    I'm not sure what he means by disciplined, are you?

    Was that website created on ZX Spectrum or a Commodore 64 ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    tim caught with his hand in the Brownie jar - again.

    Quick - Shut the bloody lid.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TGOHF said:

    Was that website created on ZX Spectrum or a Commodore 64 ?
    Dragon 32, I think. Can't be a Spectrum as there's no colour-clash.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    When's the next ICM/Guardian poll?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013

    The facts appear to show that Brown had government spending constant as a share of GDP, until the economic crash came along.

    Not quite the reckless spender he is often accused of being.

    Oblitus.

    This was the line being taken by Carl when I first posted the figures.

    The truth is that no government manages spending to match a target GDP ratio. At the time of fixing budgets GDP will be an unknown and broadly unrelated variable. It is all down to annual spending budgets increasing or decreasing spend by reference to current year,

    The Treasury plans spending on a combination of fixed departmental limits (DEL) (broadly the "fixed costs") together with Annually Managed Expenditure (AME) (broadly the "variable costs"). Each is currently around £300 bn per annum. Another split will be Central Government Expenditure and expenditure by Local Governments, Devolved Administrations and Public Sector Corporations.

    Altogether the highest aggregrate is Total Managed Expenditure (TME) which still excludes transactions related to "financial interventions" (i.e. the bank bailouts). TME is currently around £720 bn and it is TME which makes up the table I posted downthread.

    It is interesting that the highly prudent fiscal management of the 1997-2001 Labour government managed to get TME down to a ratio of 34.6%, which must be close to a post war low.

    Perhaps it was seeing the ratio so low that caused Gordon Brown to abandon the 'Tory' spending limits which he applied over Labour's first term and embark on a massive increase in public spending.

    2001-2 saw a 12% real terms increase in spending taking the ratio from 34.6% to 37.8% in just one year. In Labour's first term, TME in real terms only increased by 1.5%. In the 2001-2005 government it increased 23.8%, with the ratio rising from 34.6% to 40.5%.

    So the "reckless spending" you refer to did exist. Most unforgivably it occurred during the second term. It was higher in the third but then Gordon had a genuine global crisis to deal with. He had no excuses in 2001-2005.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tom Watsons resigned?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2013
    Tom Watson resigns as election co-ordinator - rEd the man of steel asks Watson to stay - and he tells him to ram it..

    http://order-order.com/2013/07/04/watson-resigns-as-labour-general-election-co-ordinator/

    Dear Ed,

    I said that I’d stay with you as general election co-ordinator within the Shadow Cabinet as long as I was useful. I think it would be a good idea for you, and me, if I stood down from the role now.

    As you know, I offered my resignation on Tuesday and you asked me to reconsider. I’ve thought about it and still feel it is better for you and the future unity of the party that I go now. There are some who have not forgiven me for resigning in 2006. I fully accept the consequences of that decision and genuinely hope my departure allows the party to move on.

    Yet it’s not the unattributed shadow cabinet briefings around the mess in Falkirk that has convinced me that the arrangement has run its course (though they don’t help). I believe that the report should be published – in full – and the whole truth told as soon as possible so that the record can be made clear. I’ve still not seen the report but believe there are an awful lot of spurious suppositions being written.

    I wish to use the backbenches to speak out in areas of personal interest: open government and the surveillance state, the digital economy, drones and the future of conflict, the child abuse inquiries, the aftermath of the Murdoch scandal and grass roots responses to austerity.

    Having resigned a couple of times before, I know how puckish lobby hacks might choose to misconstrue the departure. So to make it harder for them let me say this: I’m proud of your Buddha-like qualities of patience, deep thought, compassion and resolve. I remain your loyal servant. I’ll always be on hand to help you if you need me. I just don’t think you need me in the Shadow Cabinet any more. After nearly thirty years of this, I feel like I’ve seen the merry-go-round turn too many times. Whereas the Shadow Cabinet’s for people who still want to get dizzy.

    You have it in you to be an outstanding Labour Prime Minister. The road ahead is always rocky but I will be with you all of the way, cheering you on from the backbenches. You’re my friend and leader, and I’m going to do all I can to make sure you win in 2015.

    Here’s my parting thought:

    John Humphrys asked me why you were not at Glastonbury this weekend. I said Labour leaders can’t be seen standing in muddy fields listening to bands. And then I thought how terribly sad that this is true. So: be that great Labour leader that you can be, but try to have a real life too. And if you want to see an awesome band, I recommend Drenge.

    Yours sincerely,

    Tom Watson
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 54s
    Watson Resigns as Labour General Election Co-Ordinator http://guyfawk.es/18ykBSb

    Apparently he's taking more time to spend with his curries....

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    wonder if tim thinks unite is a non-story now... lol
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Er, Dan Hodges.... right on that one OGH when he wrote Watson had to go?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is Dan Hodges running the Labour party ? lol.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Dan Hodges deserves huge kudos....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Ed: i'll choose Tom Watson over Andy Coulson

    weak weak weak.....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    oops

    James Forsyth‏@JGForsyth1m
    Tom Watson quitting doesn't draw a line under Falkirk but makes it look more serious. It’s now a scandal that's drawn a shad Cab resignation
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Interesting that Watson sees Falkirk as a mess, just how bad is it ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 37s
    In resignation letter, @tom_watson reveals he offered to resign but @Ed_Miliband turned it down. Watch for Cam 'weak weak weak' charge again

    WEAK WEAK WEAK....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    2Any fight with a lefty union is good for rEd "

    (c) tim
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Labour GE Co-Ordinator Watson goes ahead of the 2015 train wreck.

    Who can blame him ?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    paging tim, paging tim?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    So Tom Watson thinks Ed M has "Buddha-like qualities of patience, deep thought, compassion and resolve".

    I think that means he looks really, really, concerned, but does nothing. Sounds about right.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    What an organ.

    Kevin Maguire‏@Kevin_Maguire1m
    And for months @tom_watson was saying privately he wanted out of Labour's Shadow Cabinet. Now he is. Prefers own campaigns

    Kevin Maguire‏@Kevin_Maguire5m
    So @tom_watson quits Labour's Shadow Cabinet. To spend more time chasing phone hackers and paedophiles
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    So Tom Watson thinks Ed M has "Buddha-like qualities of patience, deep thought, compassion and resolve".

    I think that means he looks really, really, concerned, but does nothing. Sounds about right.

    He is known for 'Zen' labour after all...
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Presumably tim has gone to get his orders?

    Or has a customer come into the shop?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Oh, and now we see the answer to the question I asked yesterday: why on earth did Ed's PMQs briefing notes contain two lines on Tom Watson?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    paging tim, paging tim?

    He's awaiting his next set of instructions and briefing lines from whoever is running smear operations now.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    Labour disUNITEd?
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited July 2013
    john_zims said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    'An exit vote at the end?

    You mean like promising an in/out referendum at the end?
    You mean like Cameron has already done?
    You mean like Cameron has promised by a specific date and not just a vague "at the end".'

    Not convinced that UKIP actually want an EU referendum,as the closer they get to one the more road blocks they put up.

    Maybe its just Farage posturing and as in the past it will be UKIP donors that decide deals & policy.

    Used to be fun voting for them at Euros,but if this circus continues I won't bother.

    UKIP's main interest is in leaving the EU. If the particular road-block we have to overcome is a referendum, sobeit.

    If you think that Cameron's approach is in the least bit credible, you are entitled to that view. He has promised an in/out referendum on the EU after he has 're-negotiated' Britain's deal, while saying in advance that he thinks that it is in Britain's interest to stay in. If you think that is a canny approach to the negotiations, you have not earned a living as a barrow-boy, or indeed any other sort of trader.

    There are non-economic (mostly political) benefits of staying in the EU. But they haven't been made persuasively, and they cannot swamp the economic benefits for leaving. And they won't be made were there to be a referendum. The sole tactic will be to try to scare the disinterested elector into voting to stay in the EU.

    Lots of people have deserted UKIP because of the 'circus' element. Farage's management style is far from mine. But on the big picture he is right, so I subjugate my ego. I hope you will take a similar attitude, next time you have a chance to vote UKIP.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,770

    So Tom Watson thinks Ed M has "Buddha-like qualities of patience, deep thought, compassion and resolve".

    I think that means he looks really, really, concerned, but does nothing. Sounds about right.

    So we have a LoO with the nickname Buddah against a prime minister with the nickname Satan*. GE2015 is shaping up to be an interesting matchup.


    *According to Armando Iannucci this was Dave's nickname at Carlton.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    NewThread.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim was right about one thing - Jim Murphy came out on top.

    one for the Blairites over the ex-Brownies including rEd
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413


    If you think that Cameron's approach is in the least bit credible, you are entitled to that view. He has promised an in/out referendum on the EU after he has 're-negotiated' Britain's deal, while saying in advance that he thinks that it is in Britain's interest to stay in. If you think that is a canny approach to the negotiations, you have not earned a living as a barrow-boy, or indeed any other sort of trader.

    That's the bit which makes absolutely zero sense.

    The first part's all right; Cameron may indeed not get much out of the negotiations.

    So what, from your point of view? It would give you the opportunity to say 'Told you so', AND allow you to get the support of people like me who want to try renegotiation first. As long as the referendum happens - and there is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the Conservcative Party allowing it not to happen, even Cameron wanted to get out of it - the difficulty of renegotiating anything helps you, not hinders you.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Rats and sinking ships spring to mind..who will be next to see the writing on the Unite wall
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    So Tom Watson thinks Ed M has "Buddha-like qualities of patience, deep thought, compassion and resolve".

    I think that means he looks really, really, concerned, but does nothing. Sounds about right.

    Not true, Buddha did all kinds of things, including taming an elephant.
    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracles_of_Gautama_Buddha
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Use this if you like

    http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/total_spending_2010UKbn

    In addition to Osborne spending more than Labour did he plans to fight the next election on a pledge to spend more than Brown as Chancellor did as a % of GDP and claim it's "disciplined"
    I'm not sure what he means by disciplined, are you?

    tim

    Better, but the figures are nominal rather than in real terms.

    You have to use real terms spending figures if you wish to compare spending in different periods.

    The only reliable source I have yet found for real terms spending is the Treasury;s PESA Report. It was from PESA 2012 that I took the headline figures used in my table downthread.

    P.S. I shall leave it to JackW to explain what Osborne means by "disciplined".

  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited July 2013

    That's the bit which makes absolutely zero sense.

    The first part's all right; Cameron may indeed not get much out of the negotiations.

    So what, from your point of view? It would give you the opportunity to say 'Told you so', AND allow you to get the support of people like me who want to try renegotiation first. As long as the referendum happens - and there is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the Conservcative Party allowing it not to happen, even Cameron wanted to get out of it - the difficulty of renegotiating anything helps you, not hinders you.
    Richard, the point is that DC is PM. Most people simply want to be able to trust him, and believe that what he is doing is right.

    His approach is wholly spurious. He has already said that he will campaign to stay in the EU, during the referendum which will follow a specious 're-negotiation'. How many semi-connected voters will appreciate that he has actually achieved trivially small progress during these negotiations?

    How tough will it be for Farage, or The Sun, to point this out? I know, and you know, that DC will be able to come back from the crucial meeting with Mrs Merkel with an appropriate piece of paper.

    I take the point that Farage may not be the ideal negotiator. But it unbelievable that DC is the right man. I've seen your posts: you know the day of the week. You don't believe it either. If we are asked to vote for him on that basis in May 2015, I'll continue to walk the streets wearing my UKIP rosette.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    DavidL said:

    Most of our banks have paid no tax since 2008. Most of them don't even pay tax on their dividends because they don't have any. The right to cancel all of their tax liabilities by applying their accumulated losses is yet another way they are subsidised by the tax payer.

    Those that earn a lot of money overseas will have the benefit of double taxation arrangements too which means the taxable income in this country will be a lot more modest than it might appear.

    We urgently need banks that are genuinely interested in lending to SMEs in this country. Our super banks are entirely focussed on shrinking their balance sheets and improving their capital ratios to meet Basel II. Their legacy of doubtful and non-recoverable debts make it almost impossible for them to lend new funds. Hence the credit available to business falls every month.

    This has been the biggest single drag on growth for the last 5 years. It is what makes the 2008 disaster different from other recessions where these problems did not exist to any material extent. It needs action. It needs opportunities for new players to enter the market. It needs a bad bank to free the RBS from its chains.
    Spot on. The toxic black hole inside the banks is acting like a sheet anchor.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    The facts appear to show that Brown had government spending constant as a share of GDP, until the economic crash came along.

    Not quite the reckless spender he is often accused of being.

    A sustainable level of borrowing inside a credit bubble is different to the level sustainable after it bursts.

    Hence why sensible people in the past argued not to borrow at all so it's available as an option in emergencies - which is when you need it.
This discussion has been closed.