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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Scottish Sun to “remain neutral” in next years referend

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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Plato said:

    It's all noise and no signal. Repeated hundreds of times.

    Does this place still have a 'Like' button?

    Bev.


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    SeanT said:

    Geo Monbiot in the Guardian says the Tories are mounting a "full spectrum attack" on the lives of the poor.

    Actually they are launching a full spectrum attack on welfarism - and this will be very popular with the low paid but in work. A hugely important distinction. The generally accepted definition of 'fair' in the UK is NOT the lefty menaning of the word. Polly eat yer heart out.

    Our country has some profound economic and socio-political problems. The vast majority of them made inordinately worse over the last 15 years. One party is trying (but with only limited success) to deal with this toxic legacy. One party has its fingers in its ears and is shouting LALALALALALA I'M NOT LISTENING and plans actively to make things even worse. One party wants us all to eat tofu and embrace the wonderful Euro. I'll leave PB'ers to work out which party is which.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Socrates

    "And this government of supposed liberals democrats and liberal conservatives has done absolutely zero to turn the clock back on this sort of crap. No wonder people are disillusioned with them"

    That's my biggest issue with the the LDs and Tories. It isn't some passing humph but a sign of underlying thinking by far too many that's its okay

    I can't go along with it - I really can't. I may agree with other stuff, but as an issue - its a bit like Iraq was for many lefties re Blair.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning all,

    Just to let you know, Re my biopsy results, that I got them last week and I DON'T have cancer!

    I do, however, have a pre cancerous condition so I'm now lined up for an operation at the end of the month, followed by years of on-going care and possibly more surgery, but given the alternative I don't think it's too bad an outcome.

    Thanks to everyone who's shown concern and interest, especially NickP. :)

    Now, on to REALLY important stuff like...

    The Bedroom Tax!!!!!!!!!

    ;)

    Glad the biopsy pinpointed the issue in good time - it sounds as though they're on top of it and you should be OK, even though the whole thing sounds like a nasty business to go through.
    Every good wish for the op and subsequent care. You can put us all straight on whether the NHS works or not! A sample of 1 is 1 bigger than we sometimes see here :-)
    Thanks Nick. :) I've always been a big supporter of the NHS because it saved my life once when I was a baby. I have every faith in my doctor and in the hospital to do the best by me.

    Good or bad I'll keep you all updated on my experience.

    @Tykejohnno Thanks. :)

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    rt waugh.

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 5m
    Surprised Osbo didn't mention EU jobless rates tday, Greece 26.4%, Spa 26.3%, France 10.8%, UK 7.7%. Mebbe didn't want to kick Hollande more
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Socrates said:

    philiph said:

    Jeremy Warner writes an article in the Telegraph calling for E. Miliband's pre-distribution policy to be implemented. Golly.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100023849/minimum-wage-should-be-substantially-raised-not-cut/

    Problem with the minimum wage is that it has acted as a drag on the pay rates for the 20% who used to earn at rates above the lower end.

    The unintended consequence has been to level down low pay to (or towards) minimum pay.
    I can't see a good economic case for why this drag would happen.

    Because employers know that the going rate for low skilled jobs is minimum wage maybe plus a few %. There is no incentive to employers to offer higher rates to get their man (or woman), as the going rate for the lower end of the pay scale is defined by the minimum wage, not by supply and demand or skill or any other element that used to be taken into account by employers. More people and jobs are migrating to the bottom of the pay scale.

    I don't know where to find statistics, but pay rates now and pre minimum wage, the spread and adjusted to todays values would be interesting to see, and I suspect prove my point that there is a migration downwards in relative terms for those in the lower sector(s).
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    philiph said:

    Socrates said:

    philiph said:

    Jeremy Warner writes an article in the Telegraph calling for E. Miliband's pre-distribution policy to be implemented. Golly.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100023849/minimum-wage-should-be-substantially-raised-not-cut/

    Problem with the minimum wage is that it has acted as a drag on the pay rates for the 20% who used to earn at rates above the lower end.

    The unintended consequence has been to level down low pay to (or towards) minimum pay.
    I can't see a good economic case for why this drag would happen.

    Because employers know that the going rate for low skilled jobs is minimum wage maybe plus a few %. There is no incentive to employers to offer higher rates to get their man (or woman), as the going rate for the lower end of the pay scale is defined by the minimum wage, not by supply and demand or skill or any other element that used to be taken into account by employers. More people and jobs are migrating to the bottom of the pay scale.

    I don't know where to find statistics, but pay rates now and pre minimum wage, the spread and adjusted to todays values would be interesting to see, and I suspect prove my point that there is a migration downwards in relative terms for those in the lower sector(s).
    If an employer needs to pay £8 for a position of a certain level of skill, and the minimum wage is brought in at £7, paying £7 for that position will leave the position unfilled. The laws of supply and demand don't end just because a floor price is brought in.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's interesting watching some of the more alert leftwing commentators wrestle with the awareness that the benefit cuts are actively popular:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/02/welfare-cuts-public-on-rights-side

    Oddly, as has already been noted on this thread, Ed Miliband has at hand a measure that would help in this battle by effectively privatising much of the social security budget - the living wage. As a further step, Labour might consider subsidising some jobs at the living wage for smaller employers. After all, the state already indirectly subsidises low-paid jobs, so why not do it directly?

    Labour is not so far ahead in the polls that it can afford to lose the battle of ideas. It's really struggling here.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    And the good news keeps on coming

    Well at least according to the British Chambers of Commerce:

    The UK will avoid a triple dip recession as the economy is boosted by a strong performance of manufacturing and service industries, according to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC).

    The BCC conducted a survey of more than 7,000 firms which showed improvements in services and manufacturing during the first three months of the year.

    The manufacturing export deliveries balance rose six points to +19% while the orders balance climbed 11 points to +22%, the best levels since the second quarter of 2012.

    The service export deliveries balance jumped nine points in the first quarter to +33% and orders increased eight points to +26%, the highest levels since the fourth quarter of 1994.

    A weakness of the pound has given a boost to exports, the BCC said.

    However employment has weakened with manufacturing down four points to +11% and services down one point to +11%.

    BCC Chief Economist David Kern said the first quarter improvement shows that UK output has continued to grow in the early months of 2013.

    "The survey reinforces our assessment that recent [official] gross domestic product [GDP] figures have exaggerated the weakness of the UK economy and the volatility in output," he said.


    The UK economy like our Baronet seems to be glowing: even the spring snow can't get us down.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @antifrank

    "Ed Miliband has at hand a measure that would help in this battle by effectively privatising much of the social security budget - the living wage."

    How would Labour do this exactly without forcing many low paying employers out of business because of a tariff that is wildly out of kilter to those outside the metropolises?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    @Socrates

    But if the value of the unskilled job is in fact £4 and the employer has to pay £6.19 then the wage differential between the unskilled and the semi skilled inevitably gets squeezed by the distortion that the minumum wage has introduced into the market.

    If the minimum wage then increases faster than the market rate then eventually it will catch up with the value of the semi skilled reducing his pay differential to zero. This has clearly happened with a lot of jobs.

    This does not of itself mean that the minimum wage is a bad thing. But if we were to take the Warner approach referred to earlier and work towards a "living wage" we would destroy even more of these differentials.

    In a better market place this has the potential to be extremely inflationary as those whose differentials have been squeezed press for their reinstatement above the new floor but it is frankly getting hard to remember the days when there was a shortage of labour at the lower end of the market.

    The living wage means less of the cost is borne by the state. I have made that point on here before. It also, all other things being equal, means more unemployed as certain activities no longer remain profitable. Whether subsidising poor value employment is a good use of public funds is a very difficult and complicated call.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980

    Good point Bev, it was automatically assigned and I haven't got round to updating it. We don't want the thought police investigating OGH do we?

    Indeed. I did not like the avatar it assigned me either so I had come up with one of my own.

    I would not be surprised if the comment attributed to UKIP was true because although I have been tempted to vote for them on occasion there has always been an undertone of nastiness that stopped me. I also do not trust Farage - something about him sets alarm bells ringing. The last politician who did that for me was Chris Huhne, so I will go with my intuition and stay away from UKIP.

    I do not trust Salmond either. I feel that his agenda is more about him than Scotland and I do not believe that when it comes down to it Scots will vote to go it alone.

    The fact that Murdoch is not backing Salmond does not mean that Salmond will lose, it means that Murdoch has already come to the conclusion that Salmond will never win. Murdoch likes to back winners.

    Bev.


    LOL, and that from someone who supports a self seeking unprincipled lying toad like Clegg. At least Salmond has yet to be proved to be a lying , money grabbing , self promoting lying toad.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    @malcolmg


    LOL, and that from someone who supports a self seeking unprincipled lying toad like Clegg. At least Salmond has yet to be proved to be a lying , money grabbing , self promoting lying toad.
    Really? Oh - that's an invitation if ever I saw one.

    You'll rue the day...
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Cyprus bailout: Finance Minister Michael Sarris quits

    Cypriot Finance Minister Michael Sarris has resigned after completing talks on a controversial bailout deal. Mr Sarris will be replaced by Labour Minister Haris Georgiades, reports in the local media suggest. The 10bn-euro (£8,5bn; $13bn) deal - agreed by the EU and IMF - originally envisaged a levy on all Cypriot bank depositors, triggering public anger. Under the revised deal, Bank of Cyprus depositors with more than 100,000 euros could now lose up to 60% of saving.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22005240
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Seems to be merely a sensible business decision to me: there appears to be a lot of strong feeling on the issue, and there's no point in offending any segment of readership unnecessarily. Likewise, I don't see a newspaper's policy on the issue affecting people's decisions - it's not in the same category as an election.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980
    Plato said:

    It's coming to something on PB when BenM is one of the most coherent leftists given that he's some far out views on economics - he's also one of the few who EVER show any empathy with others for their personal plights re illness etc.

    Other PBers could learn a lot from his humanity towards others who don't agree with him all the time.

    Does not excuse him talking absolute bollocks most of the time

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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    Patrick said:


    Our country has some profound economic and socio-political problems. The vast majority of them made inordinately worse over the last 15 years. One party is trying (but with only limited success)

    No success, you mean?

    The problem with social housing can be traced back to Right to Buy.

    The problems with the banks to the Big Bang.

    The problems with chronic unemployment to 3 million Tory unemployed.

    The problems with sickness to Tory fiddling dole stats.

    All of these clearly have the imprint of Tory failure all over them.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Indeed.

    RT @iEPluribusUnum: You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today. - Abraham Lincoln < #Labour
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    Patrick said:



    All of these clearly have the imprint of Tory failure all over them.

    I agree with some of your examples, and disagree with others.

    None of those absolves Labour's failure to fix those problems. 13 years in government, with a strong global economy and huge majorities. Blair and Brown wasted that opportunity and should be condemned for it.
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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning all,

    Just to let you know, Re my biopsy results, that I got them last week and I DON'T have cancer!

    I do, however, have a pre cancerous condition so I'm now lined up for an operation at the end of the month, followed by years of on-going care and possibly more surgery, but given the alternative I don't think it's too bad an outcome.

    Thanks to everyone who's shown concern and interest, especially NickP. :)

    Now, on to REALLY important stuff like...

    The Bedroom Tax!!!!!!!!!

    ;)

    Glad the biopsy pinpointed the issue in good time - it sounds as though they're on top of it and you should be OK, even though the whole thing sounds like a nasty business to go through.
    Every good wish for the op and subsequent care. You can put us all straight on whether the NHS works or not! A sample of 1 is 1 bigger than we sometimes see here :-)
    Glad for you Nick. My friend who had chemo since August is in full remission after following a crunchy Zeolite diet and astonished the doctors. They could not believe he went so well, having been terrible just 7 months ago with a low chance of making it. Good to beat the odds.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @redcliffe62

    Thanks for the stuff you sent over by Mike.

    Will give some thought to it - issue has always been importing biologically active product through Chinese customs in good time.
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    skw1964skw1964 Posts: 1

    @tim, @Southam - Hang on, you're off message. The attack line is supposed to be that evil heartless Tory fitness-for-work tests (you know, those ones which are run in the same way and by the same company as the cuddly, caring, Labour fitness for-work-tests) are forcing deserving disabled people not to apply for benefits they need and are entitled to. Now you are claiming the opposite, on the basis of one incoherent blog post by a Labour Party member who calls himself 'Skwawkbox'. Hardly the most authoritative, independent source, is he, and in any case, which of the two attack lines are you supposed to be running this morning?

    Why don't you deal with my facts and sources, rather than question my 'authoritativeness' (whatever that is and as if it's relevant), Richard? Southam's pointer to L'art social is a good one. You may also enjoy this, which links to it and provides additional information:

    Govt's disability distortion even worse than it looked
    http://wp.me/p2sftc-6Mb
This discussion has been closed.