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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of the June polling decline UKIP are still odds on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of the June polling decline UKIP are still odds on favourites to come top on votes at next year’s Euro
The 4% average poll decline experienced by UKIP last month has not impacted on the betting on next year’s Euro elections. As the chart shows they are still odds on favorite.
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Non-intervention is a policy in itself - you never leave the issue alone. As much effort and work goes into non-intervention, managing our relationships with those countries that are involved. It was the same in Spain - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-intervention_in_the_Spanish_Civil_War.
If backing Assad is considered the best policy, we should do that, or non-intervention, or backing the rebels. But it will always have something to do with us.
16.5% was clearly much greater than their UK GE polling, but I still think it has room to increase. The big question will be over how many votes the Tories lose and whether the 6% lost by Labour last time round will return.
A Labour source puts the boot in:
“Don’t worry. Dan’s USP of being 100 per cent wrong 100 per cent of the time is still intact. It’s nonsense to claim we have told people not to criticise Owen Jones.”
UKIP are a new kid on the block. Their support will be volatile and converse to the support of the government of the day ( I don't think it would be different in Ed gets in in 2015). They are the NOTA faction. Such a faction will usually do well in the euros (since we really don't care about the European Parliament) but maybe not that well.
Does Labour have a european policy at the moment? Is it still to be at the heart of Europe or did that die with the Euro? Other than supporting the team why would Labour supporters vote for the party in Europe? What are they voting for?
Given the all-round awful reputation that elected representatives from all parties have, UKIPs message of not paying to send a bunch to Brussels/Strasbourg might benefit from such attention.
Interesting to note that the Tory share under Cameron in 2009 was 27.7%, but when Hague was leader in 1999 the Tory share was 35.8%. Voters deserting the established parties.
In 2009, the vote share for Others [other than the top four parties] was 26.4%. Possible that this might crossover with the vote share for the party that wins the plurality?
Also worth noting that if Labour fail to win a plurality in the European poll it will be the first time that the Official Opposition have failed to do so since 1984, when the Government topped the poll. That will look very bad if it comes to pass.
Kipper tie nailed on.
I would like to see a European Parliament made up of elected representatives of the national Parliaments. That would give our backbenchers something to do and would be far more representative than what we get at the moment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Danczuk
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owen_Jones_(writer)
Sorry Owen, Simon wins that one hands down.
Labour and UKIP should battle out the top two, the Tories will be clear third, the Greens and Lib Dems will be contending fourth and fifth. Quite how many seats the LDs will get is itself an interesting question. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that they face wipeout, though I'd expect them to hold onto one in SE, East and SW. If their GEVI share is still in or near single figures though, they may not.
I consider my politically aware but have almost no idea of the Conservative MEPs' record at Brussels.
Meanwhile, as the discussion has unaccountably moved on from burgers to 7 days...Labour have more challenges to address:
"Labour will need to find a time to make any referendum pledge that stops it from appearing panicked, panicked, panicked as well."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/weak-weak-weak-labour-will-have-to-avoid-looking-panicked-on-any-referendum-pledge/
PB opinons or suggestions much appreciated.
The list of candidates for the next UK parliament by-election was published yesterday, and there is no Labour party candidate.
There are 23 candidates: 2 Lib Dem, 1 UKIP, 4 Crossbench, 1 undeclared and 15 Conservative.
As the electorate is the whole House of Lords, this means over 28% of the electorate take the Labour whip. A Labour candidate could have won.
As the election is by the alternative vote system, there should be more rounds of transfers than a scottish local by-election.
Voting is on 16 July with results the day after.
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2013/hereditary-peers-by-election-lord-reay-july-2013.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22555659
Not that it particularly matters - they mostly vote on party lines, which is usually the rational way to vote.
Ultimately the Euro elections will be big, continent-wide left vs right bun-fights rather than a bunch of disconnected national races, although that'll take a couple of cycles to take root, then a couple more for the British to catch on.
I am unfamiliar with this Lagerfeld fellow. Surely Ed Balls must be a contender?
'Does Labour have a european policy at the moment?'
Yes,but subject to frequent change.
So far blank piece of paper,followed by Red refusing a referendum,soon to be followed by manifesto pledge for in/out referendum.
Ed Balls gets an 8 out of 10 on the NBPE scale, verging on 9. Likewise Redward.
But Lagerferld gets about 123,976 out of 10. It's hard to look without thoughts of extreme violence bubbling up.
Why, more than 2 years into the Parliament has this not been sorted out? I find it really odd.
I'm not sure the oddschecker piecharts that you embed in your tweetposts actually tell us an awful lot. The pie slices are clearly not proportional to the odds - and can't be related to how much money is being bet (oddschecker won't have access to that info). Rather, it seems to be linked to the number of 'clickthroughs' oddschecker records for each selection. Which is statistical junk.
Anyway, on topic: Not tempted by the tories to win outright - at any odds. I'm maxed out on UKIP on the tory/ukip match bet. Value at anything above 1/3 IMO.
What matters for the purposes of these elections is that they vote with the PES.
It shall bring a new meaning to the song Great Balls of Fire.
In addition, Pirelli have announced they're going to strengthen the rear tyres: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23141389
Good that it's ready in time for the next race, but we'll see how things work out.
The match was 4/6 Con 11/10 UKIP and I had people on here arguing with me when I said it was a ricket!
The earth's escape velocity is what - 9km/s? Our orbital velocity about 30km/s? In order to put Loretta into the sun you'll need to not let him go into solar orbit - so basically to stop him dead in the earth's orbital track and let the sun's gravity suck him on down to a fiery end. You'll be needing a muzzle velocity of about 40km/s. I suspect that would not deliver Balls into space so much as deliver a hazy red slodge of Balls flavoured gas into the lower atmosphere with a very loud bang. Also good.
May I respectfully request you deep freeze him in liquid nitrogen prior to launch, so as to increase the chances of the Balls projectile surviving launch intact. Also amusing in its own right.
Laurence Llewelyn-Bowen
Mind you he deserves to be ejected from the atmosphere as well.
The main battle will be between Labour and UKIP, each on about 25%.
Your liquid nitrogen suggestion is intriguing.
Tried to flag this as off topic but maybe you cant do that for your own posts!
That a prosecuting magistrate in the country of Voltaire should be proposing that Marine Le Pen should face charges for these comments is horrifying:
In December 2010, during her party's internal leadership campaign, she made a speech in Lyon that denounced Muslims holding prayers in the streets – at a time when a lack of mosques in France had forced many to pray outside. She likened the outside prayers to an occupation and added: "For those who like to talk about world war two, to talk about occupation, we could talk about, for once, the occupation of our territory. There are no armoured vehicles, no soldiers, but it is an occupation all the same."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/02/marine-le-pen-immunity-lifted
Admittedly they are very silly comments. But that isn't really the point.
In any case, what about this inflammatory text? Shouldn't the author be banned from French schools?
Mais qu’un marchand de chameaux [Mohammed] excite une sédition dans sa bourgade; qu’associé à quelques malheureux coracites il leur persuade qu’il s’entretient avec l’ange Gabriel; qu’il se vante d’avoir été ravi au ciel, et d’y avoir reçu une partie de ce livre inintelligible qui fait frémir le sens commun à chaque page; que, pour faire respecter ce livre, il porte dans sa patrie le fer et la flamme; qu’il égorge les pères, qu’il ravisse les filles, qu’il donne aux vaincus le choix de sa religion ou de la mort, c’est assurément ce que nul homme ne peut excuser, à moins qu’il ne soit né Turc, et que la superstition n’étouffe en lui toute lumière naturelle.
"Ultimately, history will judge the decisions I made. I won't be around because it's going to take awhile for the objective historians to show up"
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/07/02/dubya_i_introduced_prism_and_i_like_it/
He can but hope.
Not a Le Pen supporter, but as well as her comments not being worthy of incarceration (at least she didn't say they were 'unkempt') it seems a very dubious move by the EU to decide that immunity for MEPs should be removed from one individual they dislike.
I've been thinking that for years about the cricket commentators. Thanks for putting it down in writing though.
I think it is Arun Lal & Jeff Dujon on at the moment, very nice
I would hazard to suggest that your space cannon is a one off project. The cost of making one and the force required to eject the candidate direct into the hear of the sun would be so enormous, it would likely destroy the cannon in the process. Hence the choice would be limited to one person and that person is and can only be Ed Balls.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 3m
Unite say re Falkirk - Labour Party must not become " the exclusive preserve of a self-selected metropolitan elite"
norman smith @BBCNormanS 4m
Unite say they believe Falkirk row is "a political issue over the future of the Labour party."
norman smith @BBCNormanS 4m
Unite accuse Labour leadership of "the mass disenfranchisement of Unite members and other decent men and women in Falkirk"
zerohedge @zerohedge 19s
HOLLANDE'S GOVERNMENT FIRES ENERGY MINISTER BATHO
Possibly "cast a USEFUL vote" works better, on the basios that UKIP lacks many natural allies so willa lways lose any EP vote.
The Le Pen case cited by @RichardNabavi is the same one you kicked off at Socrates about isn't it?
Mr. Fenster, Blair, as well as being a [MODERATED], was a very good political operator but we mustn't forget how reviled he was when he left or his low-standing now. I suspect he's more loathed than Brown by a distance.
Mr. Jessop, that's another intriguing idea. But what would happen if we coated Balls in a conductive metal, then immersed him in liquid nitrogen and *then* fired him using a railgun (railcannon?)?
The fall in Ukip support must surely prove that you were right tim about the immigration and Essex was wrong. Now back to the Labour civil war..
'tim still sticking a big fat worm on the end of his troll fishing hook with "immigration is great" tattoo-ed on it ?'
Still trying to convince himself,nobody in the real world is listening.
After 'no more boom or bust' went down the proverbial, flooding the country with 3-4 million immigrants without the housing or infrastructure to support them,is New Labour's 'greatest achievement'.
The subject matter of the action in France seems remarkably silly as do her comments but I expect she will make hay with the whole action and the European Parliament's inconsistent approach to the immunity question.
"China's population...will peak at 1.45bn in 2035"
Not according to some experts who believe the population will peak in about 2020 at 1.36 billion.
http://gatesofvienna.net/2013/07/keeping-a-little-jew-out-of-britain/#comments
On this one Tim is right and you are wrong.
Hasn't Ed already said they were wrong about it?
What are the chances of you understanding how unpopular uncontrolled mass immigration is with the electorate,about the same as UKIP forming a majority government in 2015 I'd say.
I mis-read it at the time.
Perhaps a gentlemen's club in Moscow will be more welcoming of your finance ?
Blair was indeed a very good political operator. His two great (and voter-attracting) skills being his ability to define himself as a man of reason against the loony-left and also the ease with which he continually pushed the Tories to their comfort-zone on the Right.
Cameron, to some extent, is an attempt at a mirror-image, but without the media-love and the political space of a massive majority. Blair probably had a better, more experienced and more on-side top team too.
Mandelson, Campbell, Brown, Cook, Reid, Blunkett, Beckett, Jonathan Powell etc was a fairly hefty and battle hardened outfit, with a collective ideological objective to reform the Labour party as a party of the centre-ground. Whatever your political allegiances, and I'm no Labour fan, Blair was very successful at doing that.
If I were Cameron, I would invest a great deal of attention in to exploring what made Blair so popular. Was it 18 years of Tory rule and time for a change? A supremely weak opposition? A great Labour manifesto? (Did he even have one)? Or something else? Was it his acting skills, his chameleon-ability to steal the moment (the death of Princess Diana, 9/11 etc)?
I don't know what it was, but the voters loved it. Even with Iraq in flames he won with a 60-seat majority*. That's pretty impressive, and pretty hard to swallow for a Tory. Hopefully Cameron will find it easy to emulate.
*On a day when Tom Watson has attracted poor headlines, we must again give great thanks to him for replacing vote-winning Blair with voter-repellent Brown. Thank you Tom.
'So quite how is our economy going to grow without immigration?'
Did I say no immigration?
So that could mean increased fertility rates and/or immigration. It doesn't mean only immigration.
Though I accept that given that women are generally having fewer babies immigration - of the right sort, with the right support and with the consent of the public (which were not matters which Labour were keen on at all) - is probably the sensible way to go.
Labour's issue is not the policy itself (necessarily) but its deception about what was going on and its failure to get public support for what it was doing and why, especially from its own supporters, plus its failure to ameliorate or deal with the negative consequences of immigration for particular communities or areas.
The post office would give you £378, spot rate is £428 [but you won't get that anywhere]
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 1m
Am so grateful for all the help Labour is giving us to close the gap in the polls. Love you all!!
[NB: isam - no asperisons intended, it's just money laundering regulations]
A demographic time bomb would be too many people chasing after too little food/electricity/water/land...