Two very good pieces from David Herdson, well done and thank you.
If Labour is finished in Scotland effectively its finished full stop, it can't win a GE and is proving to be an ineffective opposition. I say good riddance to bad rubbish with a heavy heart, there are millions of decent people that vote Labour and deserve representation, they've been let down for too long. The danger is leaving us with a smug, self serving Conservative govt in perpetuity and I hope the EU tears that apart terminally too.
I hope, with not much confidence, that 2020 sees parties campaigning on more transparent and honest lines, the break up and reformation of the Labour Party would be a start.
Not sure why Labour is finished if it doesn't carry Scotland. Without a Scottish seat Labour would have had a majority in 1997 and 2001. And in 2005, it would still have been better off than Cameron in 2010.
Two very good pieces from David Herdson, well done and thank you.
If Labour is finished in Scotland effectively its finished full stop, it can't win a GE and is proving to be an ineffective opposition. I say good riddance to bad rubbish with a heavy heart, there are millions of decent people that vote Labour and deserve representation, they've been let down for too long. The danger is leaving us with a smug, self serving Conservative govt in perpetuity and I hope the EU tears that apart terminally too.
I hope, with not much confidence, that 2020 sees parties campaigning on more transparent and honest lines, the break up and reformation of the Labour Party would be a start.
Not sure why Labour is finished if it doesn't carry Scotland. Without a Scottish seat Labour would have had a majority in 1997 and 2001. And in 2005, it would still have been better off than Cameron in 2010.
Two words, one name - Tony Blair.
Wilson and Attlee would have won elections without Scotland too
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the white working class, as Boris managed to convert to his cause but Zac failed to. However Boris was also able to win centrist voters and the jury is still out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
One reason the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right is because they are taught by leftie professors and lecturers. It tends to then take them 20 years to work out that liberal economic policy, people taking responsibility and a small state is the best way to be.
As I said educated people do not necessarily vote for the left, graduates tend to vote for the centre right, postgraduates and those with few or no qualifications for the left, the left really tend to win the most and the least educated, the right those in the middle
Educated people are as influenced by their backgrounds as anyone else. I know plenty of graduates working in senior private sector positions who vote Labour, or did before the hard left takeover. They are usually from working or lower middle class families and were the first in their families to go to university.
They are exceptions for every rule, there are even some graduates in the public sector who vote Tory!
Newcastle look as good as down tonight. If only they had sacked McClaren a week or two earlier, it could have made all the difference. Even more so had he never been so strangely appointed in the first place, having been sacked by Derby at the end of last season ..... a weird decision or what. Yet those who made such a decision appear to have survived in their jobs ...... even more weird!
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the white working class, as Boris managed to convert to his cause but Zac failed to. However Boris was also able to win centrist voters and the jury is still out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
One reason the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right is because they are taught by leftie professors and lecturers. It tends to then take them 20 years to work out that liberal economic policy, people taking responsibility and a small state is the best way to be.
As I said educated people do not necessarily vote for the left, graduates tend to vote for the centre right, postgraduates and those with few or no qualifications for the left, the left really tend to win the most and the least educated, the right those in the middle
Educated people are as influenced by their backgrounds as anyone else. I know plenty of graduates working in senior private sector positions who vote Labour, or did before the hard left takeover. They are usually from working or lower middle class families and were the first in their families to go to university.
They are exceptions for every rule, there are even some graduates in the public sector who vote Tory!
Background no doubt. That's my point.
To an extent, privately educated public sector workers will be more likely to vote Tory but also income, eg a wealthier public sector worker will be more likely to vote Tory than a poorer public sector worker and a poorer private sector worker more likely to vote Labour than a richer private sector worker
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the white working class, as Boris managed to convert to his cause but Zac failed to. However Boris was also able to win centrist voters and the jury is still out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
One reason the more you a small state is the best way to be.
As I said educated people do not necessarily vote for the left, graduates tend to vote for the centre right, postgraduates and those with few or no qualifications for the left, the left really tend to win the most and the least educated, the right those in the middle
Educated people are as influenced by their backgrounds as anyone else. I know plenty of first in their families to go to university.
They are exceptions for every rule, there are even some graduates in the public sector who vote Tory!
Background no doubt. That's my point.
To an extent, privately educated public sector workers will be more likely to vote Tory but also income, eg a wealthier public sector worker will be more likely to vote Tory than a poorer public sector worker and a poorer private sector worker more likely to vote Labour than a richer private sector worker
No doubt - but in this country where you end up is often determined by your background anyway. Wealthy people tend to have wealthy parents and are more likely to have gone to private school. There are, of course, plenty of exceptions. But that is a general truth.
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
That area was once (1992 and before?) a very Tory seat, wasn't it?
Looking at the results, my impression was that left wing areas of Scotland were still swinging heavily from Labour to SNP, while Unionist voters outside those areas were converging on the Conservatives, and in a few cases, the Lib Dems.
This polarization could leave Labour in an awful position, winning 20-30% in a lot of seats, with nothing to show for it.
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the white working class, as Boris managed to convert to his cause but Zac failed to. However Boris was also able to win centrist voters and the jury is still out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
One reason the more you a small state is the best way to be.
As I said educated people do not necessarily vote for the left, graduates tend to vote for the centre right, postgraduates and those with few or no qualifications for the left, the left really tend to win the most and the least educated, the right those in the middle
Educated people are as influenced by their backgrounds as anyone else. I know plenty of first in their families to go to university.
They are exceptions for every rule, there are even some graduates in the public sector who vote Tory!
Background no doubt. That's my point.
To an extent, privately educated public sector workers will be more likely to vote Tory but also income, eg a wealthier public sector worker will be more likely to vote Tory than a poorer public sector worker and a poorer private sector worker more likely to vote Labour than a richer private sector worker
No doubt - but in this country where you end up is often determined by your background anyway. Wealthy people tend to have wealthy parents and are more likely to have gone to private school. There are, of course, plenty of exceptions. But that is a general truth.
Labour won't die in Scotland,it'll just about have a pulse for a few years but power goes in cycles.SLAB are the victims of an earthquake.That's why Scotland must not be fracked by an aliance of the 2 Scottish Tory parties.Scotland doesn't need any more earthquakes. Maybe the time is right for Labour to embrace federalism. OT the best critique of the Tories nasty campaign for Mayor of London I've seen.
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
One reason the more you a small state is the best way to be.
As I said educated people do not necessarily vote for the left, graduates tend to vote for the centre right, postgraduates and those with few or no qualifications for the left, the left really tend to win the most and the least educated, the right those in the middle
Educated people are as influenced by their backgrounds as anyone else. I know plenty of first in their families to go to university.
They are exceptions for every rule, there are even some graduates in the public sector who vote Tory!
Background no doubt. That's my point.
To an extent, privately educated public sector workers will be more likely to vote Tory but also income, eg a wealthier public sector worker will be more likely to vote Tory than a poorer public sector worker and a poorer private sector worker more likely to vote Labour than a richer private sector worker
No doubt - but in this country where you end up is often determined by your background anyway. Wealthy people tend to have wealthy parents and are more likely to have gone to private school. There are, of course, plenty of exceptions. But that is a general truth.
Well that is the same the world over, on average
So maybe that's why graduates tend to vote centre right rather than centre left :-)
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
Commiserations, perhaps you could run for PCC next time, a much bigger salary and the Tories had much better results there against independents
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
Commiserations, John, but as you have noted, more time to post on PB. And for cocktails.
Are you officially an elder statesman yet? If so, why not offer Mike some thread headers?
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
Sympathies, JohnO. What was your opponent's campaign theme?
Two very good pieces from David Herdson, well done and thank you.
If Labour is finished in Scotland effectively its finished full stop, it can't win a GE and is proving to be an ineffective opposition. I say good riddance to bad rubbish with a heavy heart, there are millions of decent people that vote Labour and deserve representation, they've been let down for too long. The danger is leaving us with a smug, self serving Conservative govt in perpetuity and I hope the EU tears that apart terminally too.
I hope, with not much confidence, that 2020 sees parties campaigning on more transparent and honest lines, the break up and reformation of the Labour Party would be a start.
Not sure why Labour is finished if it doesn't carry Scotland. Without a Scottish seat Labour would have had a majority in 1997 and 2001. And in 2005, it would still have been better off than Cameron in 2010.
It depends on if they are able to recover sufficiently in England to make up for the loss of Scotland, if Scotland proves unrecoverable (which in the short term it is, at least in terms of holding several dozen seats up there again). No reason that's not possible, in theory at least.
Labour won't die in Scotland,it'll just about have a pulse for a few years but power goes in cycles.SLAB are the victims of an earthquake.That's why Scotland must not be fracked by an alliance of the 2 Scottish Tory parties.Scotland doesn't need any more earthquakes. [snip]
That's what Asquith thought, isn't it?
If Labour can paint the SNP as a centre-right party, they might have a chance. But that doesn't seem to be a message that people are willing to listen right now, not least because the SNP aren't.
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
Sympathies, JohnO. What was your opponent's campaign theme?
Hi Nick, Local Residents' Association so generally just anti-Tory and do more for the patch. Didn't agree with them down the line...but they got the votes and I didn't. My attitiude is exactly the same as yours in defeat, namely, that it was a huge privilege to serve to the best of one's abilities and wish the other side well.
Mustn't derail the thread....but best thing to do in such circumstances is to take a step back, have a rest for a few months, and then 'regroup' (whatever that means in practice). But once you're out, you really are out!
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
Frees you up for that long-awaited ennoblement, surely?
Labour won't die in Scotland,it'll just about have a pulse for a few years but power goes in cycles.SLAB are the victims of an earthquake.That's why Scotland must not be fracked by an alliance of the 2 Scottish Tory parties.Scotland doesn't need any more earthquakes. [snip]
That's what Asquith thought, isn't it?
If Labour can paint the SNP as a centre-right party, they might have a chance. But that doesn't seem to be a message that people are willing to listen right now, not least because the SNP aren't.
The SNP believes in cutting business and personal taxes to stimulate growth; they are happy to subsidise the better off at the expense of the poorest; they do not have a single redistributive policy; they want to create an international frontier between England and Scotland. It's not exactly the Red Flag, David. And soon the SNP are going to have to make proper choices and will not be able to hide behind rhetoric. Scottish Labour will never dominate Scotland again, but there is no reason why the party should die. One day, constitutional issues will be less dominant. Scottish Labour has to be disciplined and wait. It will be tough, but it's not impossible.
That area was once (1992 and before?) a very Tory seat, wasn't it?
Looking at the results, my impression was that left wing areas of Scotland were still swinging heavily from Labour to SNP, while Unionist voters outside those areas were converging on the Conservatives, and in a few cases, the Lib Dems.
This polarization could leave Labour in an awful position, winning 20-30% in a lot of seats, with nothing to show for it.
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
It has been targeted at the out whether Trump can do the same
I think you mean WWC males.
One reason the Right is so bad at education policy is that the more you educate people the less they vote for the Right (except for the few who, like Trump, turn Daddy's millions into billions).
One reason the more you a small state is the best way to be.
As I said educated people do not necessarily vote for the
Educated people are as influenced by their backgrounds as anyone else. I know plenty of first in their families to go to university.
They are exceptions for every rule, there are even some graduates in the public sector who vote Tory!
Background no doubt. That's my point.
To an extent, privately educated public sector workers will be more likely to vote Tory but also income, eg a wealthier public sector worker will be more likely to vote Tory than a poorer public sector worker and a poorer private sector worker more likely to vote Labour than a richer private sector worker
No doubt - but in this country where you end up is often determined by your background anyway. Wealthy people tend to have wealthy parents and
Well that is the same the world over, on average
So maybe that's why graduates tend to vote centre right rather than centre left :-)
The clearest link is earnings and private/public sector workers, a graduate from a council estate who went to a local comp who is an investment banker is more likely to vote Tory than a postgraduate who went to Eton and is a human rights lawyer
1 ward to come Con 22 LD 20 all hinges on Bishops Waltham should be 3 X Con there but we will see
It is the hope that will kill you..... Go on, smile for once.
I am smiling , back in September I made my forecast for Winchester on the Vote2012 site . 25-20 spot on !!
I used to live in Winchester and I know that the boundaries and number of councillors have changed (reduced quite a bit I think) Who is the result of of 25 Conservatives and 20 Lib Dems good for? (Obviously not Labour or UKIP).
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
Commiserations. If only 10 people had swung the other way... That's tough.
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
Sympathies, JohnO. What was your opponent's campaign theme?
Hi Nick, Local Residents' Association so generally just anti-Tory and do more for the patch. Didn't agree with them down the line...but they got the votes and I didn't. My attitiude is exactly the same as yours in defeat, namely, that it was a huge privilege to serve to the best of one's abilities and wish the other side well.
Why looking at percentage change graphs without the underlying numbers is dangerous, especially when turnout is 5% up nationally.
twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/728986724953632768
Looks awful for the SNP right? Huge SNP to Tory switch right? That's the story right? In reality SNP only lost 545 votes.
Total votes cast rose 15%. It's all about Tory turnout surging not SNP to Con Switchers. SNP voters stayed home in a super safe seat.
That can't be said for Aberdeenshire East, or Perthshire North, where the SNP vote is down, rather than remaining static.
Aberdeenshire east looks like the only genuine example of SNP to Con swtiching I can find - the not insignificant event of Alex Salmond stepping down makes it an outlier. Perthshire North on the other hand is lazy SNP voters in a super safe seat. SNP vote was down 1693 while Con vote was up 8399 with turnout once again up significantly. So unless each SNP voter gets 5 votes when they switch their vote to the Tories it's differential turnout not SNP to Con switching.
1 ward to come Con 22 LD 20 all hinges on Bishops Waltham should be 3 X Con there but we will see
It is the hope that will kill you..... Go on, smile for once.
I am smiling , back in September I made my forecast for Winchester on the Vote2012 site . 25-20 spot on !!
I used to live in Winchester and I know that the boundaries and number of councillors have changed (reduced quite a bit I think) Who is the result of of 25 Conservatives and 20 Lib Dems good for? (Obviously not Labour or UKIP).
My forecast for seats previously fought on these boundaries was 27 - 18 so a swing of 2 from Con to LDem . 5 wards are split 1 with 1 councillor each and 4 with 2 LDem and 1 Conservative all with LDem in leading position . So advantage to Lib Dems for future prospects
Why looking at percentage change graphs without the underlying numbers is dangerous, especially when turnout is 5% up nationally.
twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/728986724953632768
Looks awful for the SNP right? Huge SNP to Tory switch right? That's the story right? In reality SNP only lost 545 votes.
Total votes cast rose 15%. It's all about Tory turnout surging not SNP to Con Switchers. SNP voters stayed home in a super safe seat.
That can't be said for Aberdeenshire East, or Perthshire North, where the SNP vote is down, rather than remaining static.
Aberdeenshire east looks like the only genuine example of SNP to Con swtiching I can find. Perthshire North on the other hand is lazy SNP voters in a super safe seat. SNP vote was down 1693 while Con vote was up 8399 with turnout once again up significantly. So unless each SNP voter gets 5 votes when they switch their vote to the Tories it's differential turnout not SNP to Con switching.
Does it raise the question of why the SNP supporters weren't motivated to come out to vote, which I'm not yet convinced is the case? Surely being on the cusp of a second referendum would have motivated them. If not that, hard to tell what would.
Rather than Ken standing for Tooting, as has ruined his reputation, perhaps they could find an A. Hitler. He seems to have public recognition these days, just look at how popular search term in google .
I worked with a chief electrician in Beirut who was called Hitler. I assumed it related to the way he ran the electrical department but it wasn't. His brother was called Rommel. They were a bit puzzled by my surprise. They said if he'd been called 'Hobeika' they'd have understood
There are quite a few Spanish blokes of a certain age called Adolfo. They tend to have been born in the early years of the Franco dictatorship.
Are any Germans called Adolf these days? I don't think I've ever come across one.
I doubt it very much. I lived in Germany for 10 years and only ever came across one Adolf, who was about 80 years old. I think it used to be a fairly common name in Germany (and Austria), but is now almost completely taboo. Anyone naming their baby Adolf would be making a major statement of their political orientation. It might even be illegal - Germans have pretty strict rules about what you can call a child.
Mustn't derail the thread....but best thing to do in such circumstances is to take a step back, have a rest for a few months, and then 'regroup' (whatever that means in practice). But once you're out, you really are out!
So the people have spoken....the bastards. What a shame. One of those elections where too many of the good guys have ended up losing. I hope you're not too disappointed?
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
19 votes? Bad luck, old boy!
How many recounts JohnnyO; or did you gracefully retire from the fray?
Mustn't derail the thread....but best thing to do in such circumstances is to take a step back, have a rest for a few months, and then 'regroup' (whatever that means in practice). But once you're out, you really are out!
So the people have spoken....the bastards. What a shame. One of those elections where too many of the good guys have ended up losing. I hope you're not too disappointed?
I was SO hoping that someone would use that quote!!! Doffs cap in solidarity. Disappointed naturally, but not entirely surprised, and as a veteran municipal hack, you always know that what goes up will at some point plummet back to earth.
Two very good pieces from David Herdson, well done and thank you.
If Labour is finished in Scotland effectively its finished full stop, it can't win a GE and is proving to be an ineffective opposition. I say good riddance to bad rubbish with a heavy heart, there are millions of decent people that vote Labour and deserve representation, they've been let down for too long. The danger is leaving us with a smug, self serving Conservative govt in perpetuity and I hope the EU tears that apart terminally too.
I hope, with not much confidence, that 2020 sees parties campaigning on more transparent and honest lines, the break up and reformation of the Labour Party would be a start.
Not sure why Labour is finished if it doesn't carry Scotland. Without a Scottish seat Labour would have had a majority in 1997 and 2001. And in 2005, it would still have been better off than Cameron in 2010.
The BBC NEV share was Lab 31, C 30, LD 15, UKIP 12, I think.
I wonder what are figures in England alone. The gap between Con and Labour must go up by 1% at least.
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
19 votes? Bad luck, old boy!
How many recounts JohnnyO; or did you gracefully retire from the fray?
Just the one for the formalities. A margin of that size in a small electorate is never going to be overturned. Yer just grin an' bear it.
Labour won't die in Scotland,it'll just about have a pulse for a few years but power goes in cycles.SLAB are the victims of an earthquake.That's why Scotland must not be fracked by an alliance of the 2 Scottish Tory parties.Scotland doesn't need any more earthquakes. [snip]
That's what Asquith thought, isn't it?
If Labour can paint the SNP as a centre-right party, they might have a chance. But that doesn't seem to be a message that people are willing to listen right now, not least because the SNP aren't.
Especially when the SCons have that centre-right mantle nicely sewn up.
Labour won't die in Scotland,it'll just about have a pulse for a few years but power goes in cycles.SLAB are the victims of an earthquake.That's why Scotland must not be fracked by an alliance of the 2 Scottish Tory parties.Scotland doesn't need any more earthquakes. [snip]
That's what Asquith thought, isn't it?
If Labour can paint the SNP as a centre-right party, they might have a chance. But that doesn't seem to be a message that people are willing to listen right now, not least because the SNP aren't.
Especially when the SCons have that centre-right mantle nicely sewn up.
Hilary C has obviously not read the rest of Khans resume..Friend of Jihadis..Ethnic allocation of jobs..which is racist in the extreme..calls non extreme Muslims.. Uncle Toms...such a nice chap...
Why looking at percentage change graphs without the underlying numbers is dangerous, especially when turnout is 5% up nationally.
twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/728986724953632768
Looks awful for the SNP right? Huge SNP to Tory switch right? That's the story right? In reality SNP only lost 545 votes.
Total votes cast rose 15%. It's all about Tory turnout surging not SNP to Con Switchers. SNP voters stayed home in a super safe seat.
That can't be said for Aberdeenshire East, or Perthshire North, where the SNP vote is down, rather than remaining static.
Aberdeenshire east looks like the only genuine example of SNP to Con swtiching I can find. Perthshire North on the other hand is lazy SNP voters in a super safe seat. SNP vote was down 1693 while Con vote was up 8399 with turnout once again up significantly. So unless each SNP voter gets 5 votes when they switch their vote to the Tories it's differential turnout not SNP to Con switching.
Does it raise the question of why the SNP supporters weren't motivated to come out to vote, which I'm not yet convinced is the case? Surely being on the cusp of a second referendum would have motivated them. If not that, hard to tell what would.
Two very good pieces from David Herdson, well done and thank you.
If Labour is finished in Scotland effectively its finished full stop, it can't win a GE and is proving to be an ineffective opposition. I say good riddance to bad rubbish with a heavy heart, there are millions of decent people that vote Labour and deserve representation, they've been let down for too long. The danger is leaving us with a smug, self serving Conservative govt in perpetuity and I hope the EU tears that apart terminally too.
I hope, with not much confidence, that 2020 sees parties campaigning on more transparent and honest lines, the break up and reformation of the Labour Party would be a start.
Not sure why Labour is finished if it doesn't carry Scotland. Without a Scottish seat Labour would have had a majority in 1997 and 2001. And in 2005, it would still have been better off than Cameron in 2010.
The BBC NEV share was Lab 31, C 30, LD 15, UKIP 12, I think.
I wonder what are figures in England alone. The gap between Con and Labour must go up by 1% at least.
My guess for England based on those figures would be something like Con 33, Lab 31, LD 16, UKIP 15.
"... the balance of trade and structural problems are seriously crap and not getting any better."
Very true and there seems to be nobody in Parliament who seems to want to talk about, let alone in government wanting to do something about them.
Even on here the voices raising these issues are ignored or shouted down. Osborne is the "near perfect chancellor" we are told. Nearly perfect at ignoring everything that doesn't help his own career, possibly; nearly perfect at steering the economy towards the cliff for certain.
No-one wants to talk about it because quite simply,the actions needed to reverse the problems - or the actions needed when the problems become a major cause of a UK economic crash (think £1=$0.75 ) - would make current austerity look like a walk in the park..
There would have to be dramatic cuts in imports, huge rises in prices of basic foodstuffs and people would get much poorer. (See 1945-51). As for buying the latest consumer electronic gadgets - think hi grade phones - how about 200% import duties?
Politicians KNOW that...The NHS would have to be decimated as tax revenues would collapse... Think new car sales halving...
Labour won't die in Scotland,it'll just about have a pulse for a few years but power goes in cycles.SLAB are the victims of an earthquake.That's why Scotland must not be fracked by an alliance of the 2 Scottish Tory parties.Scotland doesn't need any more earthquakes. [snip]
That's what Asquith thought, isn't it?
If Labour can paint the SNP as a centre-right party, they might have a chance. But that doesn't seem to be a message that people are willing to listen right now, not least because the SNP aren't.
Especially when the SCons have that centre-right mantle nicely sewn up.
LOL, right wing Junta you mean
Aren't junta's by definition usually in power, at least when the word is used in the English sense?
"Our awful elites gutted America. Now they dare ring alarms about Trump, Sanders — and cast themselves as saviors Both parties ignored workers, spewed hate, enriched themselves, hollowed out democracy. Now the problem's populism?" — Anis Shivani
Hi All, Many thanks for your commiserations, having been ousted by 19 votes from my heavily revised ward. Knew this was a distinct possibility so, hey, celebrate democracy, er, up to a point! Looks as if our poor performance locally - we're now a well and truly hung Council with 22 Cons, 19 RAs and 7 LibDems - was not out of line with our neighbouring authorities.
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
19 votes? Bad luck, old boy!
How many recounts JohnnyO; or did you gracefully retire from the fray?
Just the one for the formalities. A margin of that size in a small electorate is never going to be overturned. Yer just grin an' bear it.
It's tough being on the interface of politics, JohnnyO. You know, just a few short years ago that word, interface, was banded about as the new 'in' word, to cover anything new and exciting, from computers to politics to rocket science. Never hear of it now, or so seldom, as not to make much difference.
I know its good of the new Bristol mayor to think of the elderly, but really I think he would be better in a safe environment like a specialist home...
DUP 38 seats Sinn Fein 28 (-1) UUP 16 SDLP 12 (-2) Alliance 8 Greens 2 (+1) People Before Profit 2 (+2) Traditional Unionist Voice 1 Independent 1
Not much movement in NI seats, shocking.
Net 2 losses from SF/SDLP to their left flank and one to the Greens. PBP also did well in the south of Ireland in February, picking up one seat to tally 3. Trots who ditched the Trot part and just focus on street agitation. It's quite post-modern and effective.
Hilary C has obviously not read the rest of Khans resume..Friend of Jihadis..Ethnic allocation of jobs..which is racist in the extreme..calls non extreme Muslims.. Uncle Toms...such a nice chap...
Or maybe she just isn't a racist who thinks someone deserves to be treated with suspicion simply because they have a brown face and a funny-sounding name.
Why looking at percentage change graphs without the underlying numbers is dangerous, especially when turnout is 5% up nationally.
twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/728986724953632768
Looks awful for the SNP right? Huge SNP to Tory switch right? That's the story right? In reality SNP only lost 545 votes.
Total votes cast rose 15%. It's all about Tory turnout surging not SNP to Con Switchers. SNP voters stayed home in a super safe seat.
That can't be said for Aberdeenshire East, or Perthshire North, where the SNP vote is down, rather than remaining static.
Aberdeenshire east looks like the only genuine example of SNP to Con swtiching I can find. Perthshire North on the other hand is lazy SNP voters in a super safe seat. SNP vote was down 1693 while Con vote was up 8399 with turnout once again up significantly. So unless each SNP voter gets 5 votes when they switch their vote to the Tories it's differential turnout not SNP to Con switching.
Does it raise the question of why the SNP supporters weren't motivated to come out to vote, which I'm not yet convinced is the case? Surely being on the cusp of a second referendum would have motivated them. If not that, hard to tell what would.
SNP vote went up a fraction - 1.1% at the constituency level
Why looking at percentage change graphs without the underlying numbers is dangerous, especially when turnout is 5% up nationally.
twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/728986724953632768
Looks awful for the SNP right? Huge SNP to Tory switch right? That's the story right? In reality SNP only lost 545 votes.
Total votes cast rose 15%. It's all about Tory turnout surging not SNP to Con Switchers. SNP voters stayed home in a super safe seat.
That can't be said for Aberdeenshire East, or Perthshire North, where the SNP vote is down, rather than remaining static.
Aberdeenshire east looks like the only genuine example of SNP to Con swtiching I can find. Perthshire North on the other hand is lazy SNP voters in a super safe seat. SNP vote was down 1693 while Con vote was up 8399 with turnout once again up significantly. So unless each SNP voter gets 5 votes when they switch their vote to the Tories it's differential turnout not SNP to Con switching.
Does it raise the question of why the SNP supporters weren't motivated to come out to vote, which I'm not yet convinced is the case? Surely being on the cusp of a second referendum would have motivated them. If not that, hard to tell what would.
SNP vote went up a fraction - 1.1% at the constituency level
The PBP and Greens are both all-Ireland parties. (As PB nerds know, the GPEW and SGP are separate parties. The Green Party that won seats in Down and Belfast is another, separate, federal entity.) Both are designated Other like Alliance, but PBP's support is near-entirely Catholic, unless Carroll made it into and out of the Shankill Road in one piece.
Tooting will be a comfortable Lab hold imo. Governments rarely gain seats in by-elections and this government will be vigorously tearing itself a new one in the run up.
DUP 38 seats Sinn Fein 28 (-1) UUP 16 SDLP 12 (-2) Alliance 8 Greens 2 (+1) People Before Profit 2 (+2) Traditional Unionist Voice 1 Independent 1
Not much movement in NI seats, shocking.
Net 2 losses from SF/SDLP to their left flank and one to the Greens. PBP also did well in the south of Ireland in February, picking up one seat to tally 3. Trots who ditched the Trot part and just focus on street agitation. It's quite post-modern and effective.
Nationalist (SDLP+SF) vote down to 36.0%, lowest level since Good Friday 1998.
David, I don't think the Tories beat Labour in Scotland on the basis of the constituency % votes. That is surely the most significant basis for any comparison in relation to Westminster elections. Had the latter taken place on Thursday I suspect Labour would have managed 25% , and I suspect that after a further 4 years of an SNP administration 28% - 30% is quite likely in 2020.Labour could well emerge with 6 - 10 MPs next time together with 3/4 Tories.
On constituency vote, Labour finished second, by 22.6% to 22%. However, that's not the basis on which the election was run and parties will campaign to maximise their return under the rules in play. I've not checked but I expect that the main reason is that there are a lot more seats where the Conservatives are sub-10% than Labour.
As for the future, most depends on the SNP, how they act and whether they give good opportunities to exploit. Thereafter, the question will be who can best exploit them. On that score, Labour is still floundering. Perhaps they can get their game together in four years - Kezia is still relatively new to the role - but as long as Sturgeon continues to look after Labour's former voters, what pitch can Labour put forward to attract their voters back?
In addition the gross percentage for constituencies is really not the point. Labour suffer from having their vote much more evenly spread. They got substantially more votes than the tories in Scotland in 2015 but the same number of seats. Next Westminster the Tories are very likely to win all 3 border seats for a start. I don't see Labour matching that even if they get more votes overall.
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Tooting will be a comfortable Lab hold imo. Governments rarely gain seats in by-elections and this government will be vigorously tearing itself a new one in the run up.
I think there is also an additional factor, in that demographically Tory voters in Tooting are proportionally more likely to have been disgusted by the Tories' racist mayoral campaign.
The Wandsworth constituencies are unusual, as they're some of the only Tory areas with very high young populations: Battersea and Tooting are #1 and #2 in the 25-44 age bracket of any constituency anywhere in the UK, and Putney is #8. They are also right near the bottom of the league table for numbers of pensioners. The Tories really punch above their national weight with the under-45 demographic in Wandsworth because many of them work in the City, don't really believe in high government spending and like low taxes.
However, my suspicion is that however economically conservative they may be, most young people hate racism more than they like low taxes, and may have been turned away by the Republican-style mayoral campaign they will have just witnessed.
DUP 38 seats Sinn Fein 28 (-1) UUP 16 SDLP 12 (-2) Alliance 8 Greens 2 (+1) People Before Profit 2 (+2) Traditional Unionist Voice 1 Independent 1
Not much movement in NI seats, shocking.
Net 2 losses from SF/SDLP to their left flank and one to the Greens. PBP also did well in the south of Ireland in February, picking up one seat to tally 3. Trots who ditched the Trot part and just focus on street agitation. It's quite post-modern and effective.
Nationalist (SDLP+SF) vote down to 36.0%, lowest level since Good Friday 1998.
The nationalist community is hugely disillusioned. They see flag protests angrying up the loyalists, welfare reform, job losses, continuing poverty, and they wonder why their parties do nothing to change things. If you are Catholic, and rural and right-wing, or urban and young and liberal but financially successful, you have nowhere to go except maybe the Greens (in the latter case). At least in the deprived parts of Belfast and Derry, people had PBP to challenge for their votes.
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015.
Tooting will be a comfortable Lab hold imo. Governments rarely gain seats in by-elections and this government will be vigorously tearing itself a new one in the run up.
I think there is also an additional factor, in that demographically Tory voters in Tooting are proportionally more likely to have been disgusted by the Tories' racist mayoral campaign.
The Wandsworth constituencies are unusual, as they're some of the only Tory areas with very high young populations: Battersea and Tooting are #1 and #2 in the 25-44 age bracket of any constituency anywhere in the UK, and Putney is #8. They are also right near the bottom of the league table for numbers of pensioners. The Tories really punch above their national weight with the under-45 demographic in Wandsworth because many of them work in the City, don't really believe in high government spending and like low taxes.
However, my suspicion is that however economically conservative they may be, most young people hate racism more than they like low taxes, and may have been turned away by the Republican-style mayoral campaign they will have just witnessed.
It will also help to motivate Labour voters, perhaps.
1/3 with Shadsy. Only concern, for me, is if Labour select a bizarro candidate.
I think he won't last the term. (Rubbish or Corbyn mk2 - you choose)
I wish him well and expect he will be the person who finally sees the end of Corbyn as he dominates labour due to his mandate. He has demanded the expulsion of Livingstone and is in the position that he has to be seen as an honest broker and to act against all forms of anti-semitism. In the immediate term as he said today he will commence his campaign next week to keep London and the UK in the EU.If he fronts labour's campaign he could be a very formidable figure for remain.
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015. I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015. I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
The BMA have finally seen sense and are now going back to the negotiating tablk..those strikes worked well then..
As Hunt accepted the talks first they had no choice but apparently they have become quite divided and this is an opportunity for them to save face as there is no way Hunt will stop the introduction of the new contracts as they are needed for the basis of all future negotiations with doctors, nurses and others in the NHS over weekend working
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015. I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
Wishful thinking! Labour won East Lothian and Dumbarton this week and was very competitive in Eastwood.If Labour recovers to circa 28% with the SNP falling back to circa 42% I would expect 6 - 10 Labour MPs.
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015.
I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
Wishful thinking! Labour won East Lothian and Dumbarton this week and was very competitive in Eastwood.If Labour recovers to circa 28% with the SNP falling back to circa 42% I would expect 6 - 10 Labour MPs.
No way - My wife is a Scot and we lived in Edinburgh for many years and have a large family in the North East. Labour will not recover. The SNP will be held to the fire by Ruth Davidson and she and Nicola Sturgeon will dominate Scots politics for years to come with labour becoming irrelevant
The BMA have finally seen sense and are now going back to the negotiating tablk..those strikes worked well then..
As Hunt accepted the talks first they had no choice but apparently they have become quite divided and this is an opportunity for them to save face as there is no way Hunt will stop the introduction of the new contracts as they are needed for the basis of all future negotiations with doctors, nurses and others in the NHS over weekend working
I have been wondering ... just supposing that 5 or 10 years down track, the new regime can be seen clearly to be better for patients than the present set-up. How will these poor doctors feel about having endangered lives now for expected but non-existent saved lives later?
The BMA have finally seen sense and are now going back to the negotiating tablk..those strikes worked well then..
Now the elections are over, the socialists that run the BMA aren't so bothered about trying to damage the governments reputation and therefor, no longer have an incentive to put out misleading propaganda and prolong the unnecessary dispute.
The BMA have finally seen sense and are now going back to the negotiating tablk..those strikes worked well then..
As Hunt accepted the talks first they had no choice but apparently they have become quite divided and this is an opportunity for them to save face as there is no way Hunt will stop the introduction of the new contracts as they are needed for the basis of all future negotiations with doctors, nurses and others in the NHS over weekend working
I have been wondering ... just supposing that 5 or 10 years down track, the new regime can be seen clearly to be better for patients than the present set-up. How will these poor doctors feel about having endangered lives now for expected but non-existent saved lives later?
Maybe they will all be in Australia and New Zealand missing home and family dreadfully. I say that as a parent who's eldest son emigrated to New Zealand 13 years ago and it is only when you visit them you realise how far from home it is, and home really is where the heart is
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015. I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
I'm reluctant to put a number on it, but there will be some traditional Labor voters for whom the biggest issue is defending the UK, and therefor will vote Tory if they think they live in an SNP/Con marginal, as evidence for this I will point to the 2015 GE and one Con Seat in Scotland and the 5 SNP seats with Con in second place, which had the largest swings to con and large drops in Lab voters. but I would be interested to know if there was something else yo can point to that may have coursed this.
At the very least there will be natural Tory voters who had in the past tactically voted Lab, who may now come back, not to mention natural LD voters who may now tactically vote tory not Lab.
Sadiq Khan is a surprisingly big story globally, BTW.
American media going big on how the "Trump-style" Tory campaign backfired.
A minor headline on the CNN website does not really count as 'going big', other US media barely mention it
1) CNN so far left - they are the Morning Star of American gutter journalism. 2) Trump hasn't engaged in Islamophobia - his message has been mainly positive - but targeted at the common man, not the intelligentsia or pandering to minority groups.
Are you for real? I read the Morning Star somtimes, and look at CNN sometimes. The resemblance is less than obvious.
True, there's occasionally some interesting and fresh reporting in the Morning Star.
Many years ago I was at a Conservative annual conference. An organisation I campaign for had a stall and a big fringe meeting. I was astonished to see how many copies of the Morning Star were on sale at the paper stands and were being bought by delegates. Presumably for the lolz.
Geoff, what's your view on how Gibraltarians are splitting for Brexit? 80/20 to Remain?
I'M IN have rented a huge shop front on Main Street and are very visible. There are no Leave voices. Govt, Opposition and all of the media are IN.
The danger of Brexit to Gibraltar is being discussed every day in every coffee shop and bar by ordinary members of the public who will see their jobs and lives transformed by this vote.
People fear a return to the 70s when the Spanish blockaded us and closed the border. Food was brought in by sea. We had rationing. On the plus side, dating was easier because you already had all of your cousins' phone numbers.
My company has a million pound contract lined up with a German company which will create 220 new local jobs . All of the paperwork is ready, unsigned. It only goes ahead with Remain. Brexit will cost me several contracts across thd border and our wargaming has us dropping 25 to 30 staff. Obviously I will drop Spaniards first and locals only as a last resort. But some will be Gibraltarians without doubt.
In the the face of this I will still vote Leave because I am British and Leave is in the best long term interests of Britain. So I will vote positively for my children and I will take the short term pain for them if Brexit happens.
But I'm predicting 90/10 Remain here. Everyone wonders if the small electorate of Scotland might tip a close result to Remain. My nightmare scenario is that Gib tips the balance.
I would offer a thread header on it but my emails to Mike about articles don't get answered.
Newcastle look as good as down tonight. If only they had sacked McClaren a week or two earlier, it could have made all the difference. Even more so had he never been so strangely appointed in the first place, having been sacked by Derby at the end of last season ..... a weird decision or what. Yet those who made such a decision appear to have survived in their jobs ...... even more weird!
The clearest link is earnings and private/public sector workers, a graduate from a council estate who went to a local comp who is an investment banker is more likely to vote Tory than a postgraduate who went to Eton and is a human rights lawyer
Indeed, you would expect that. Self-selecting for careers which favour personal gain over public service and vice versa should be a very highly correlated indicator for political preference.
Comments
Newcastle look as good as down tonight. If only they had sacked McClaren a week or two earlier, it could have made all the difference. Even more so had he never been so strangely appointed in the first place, having been sacked by Derby at the end of last season ..... a weird decision or what. Yet those who made such a decision appear to have survived in their jobs ...... even more weird!
Clinton 43%
Sanders 47%
http://wvmetronews.com/2016/05/06/overwhelming-support-for-trump-lead-for-sanders-in-metronews-west-virginia-poll/
Vote UKIP
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/05/07/1524185/-Hillary-wins-Guam-Caucus?detail=hide
Hey ho, more time for posting on pb....
This polarization could leave Labour in an awful position, winning 20-30% in a lot of seats, with nothing to show for it.
Swinney lost 1693 votes, the Tories gained 8399 votes. Differential turn out not SNP to Con switching.
Maybe the time is right for Labour to embrace federalism.
OT the best critique of the Tories nasty campaign for Mayor of London I've seen.
http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/yes-we-khan.html
You soon a bit like Martin Day (formerly of this parish) discussing the Lib Dems.
Are you officially an elder statesman yet?
If so, why not offer Mike some thread headers?
If Labour can paint the SNP as a centre-right party, they might have a chance. But that doesn't seem to be a message that people are willing to listen right now, not least because the SNP aren't.
Seriously though, commiserations from me too.
Day ..... Eve ..... Eve ..... Day, geddit?
Who is the result of of 25 Conservatives and 20 Lib Dems good for? (Obviously not Labour or UKIP).
Commiserations. If only 10 people had swung the other way... That's tough.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/728986724953632768
Looks awful for the SNP right? Huge SNP to Tory switch right? That's the story right? In reality SNP only lost 545 votes.
Total votes cast rose 15%. It's all about Tory turnout surging not SNP to Con Switchers. SNP voters stayed home in a super safe seat.
And bad luck JohnO.
I wonder what are figures in England alone. The gap between Con and Labour must go up by 1% at least.
There would have to be dramatic cuts in imports, huge rises in prices of basic foodstuffs and people would get much poorer. (See 1945-51). As for buying the latest consumer electronic gadgets - think hi grade phones - how about 200% import duties?
Politicians KNOW that...The NHS would have to be decimated as tax revenues would collapse... Think new car sales halving...
Both parties ignored workers, spewed hate, enriched themselves, hollowed out democracy. Now the problem's populism?" — Anis Shivani
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/06/our_awful_elites_gutted_america_now_they_dare_ring_alarms_about_trump_sanders_and_cast_themselves_as_saviors/
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Corbyn-pays-flying-visit-Bristol-congratulate/story-29242983-detail/story.html
I think he won't last the term. (Rubbish or Corbyn mk2 - you choose)
The Wandsworth constituencies are unusual, as they're some of the only Tory areas with very high young populations: Battersea and Tooting are #1 and #2 in the 25-44 age bracket of any constituency anywhere in the UK, and Putney is #8. They are also right near the bottom of the league table for numbers of pensioners. The Tories really punch above their national weight with the under-45 demographic in Wandsworth because many of them work in the City, don't really believe in high government spending and like low taxes.
However, my suspicion is that however economically conservative they may be, most young people hate racism more than they like low taxes, and may have been turned away by the Republican-style mayoral campaign they will have just witnessed.
I can quite easily see Labour at circa 28% in 2020 with the SNP at 41/42%. Still a big SNP lead but it should see Labour nearer 10 MPs than the single member they ended up with in 2015.
There will be a portion of the Unionist party's voters who will vote for whichever of the 3 main unions party's they think has the best chance of beating the SNP in there area, given the upcoming change in Westminster constituency's, and the resent serge in Tory support, it will not always be clearer which is the best placed to defeat the SNP, but I suspect that, compared to 2015, and all other things being equal, more will be tactically voting Tory then Lab, and there for the total SLab vote at 2020 may be lower than 2015.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015.
1/3 with Shadsy. Only concern, for me, is if Labour select a bizarro candidate.
I don't think there will be many Labour voters contemplating voting Tory to defeat the SNP when the effect might be to help keep a Tory PM in Downing Street. Very fanciful I suspect. It might have some appeal in the Holyrood context with an SNP administration in office.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015.
I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
Labour have nowhere to go in Scotland. The SNP have stolen all their clothes and it is not going to change for them anytime soon. Indeed I suspect the party will become irrelevant as the SNP and an increasingly confident Ruth Davidson drives the SCON to more success resulting in more seats at the next GE. Also GE 2020 will still have the problem that England will not accept a labour government supported in by the SNP, just as in 2015.
I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
Wishful thinking! Labour won East Lothian and Dumbarton this week and was very competitive in Eastwood.If Labour recovers to circa 28% with the SNP falling back to circa 42% I would expect 6 - 10 Labour MPs.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
Wishful thinking! Labour won East Lothian and Dumbarton this week and was very competitive in Eastwood.If Labour recovers to circa 28% with the SNP falling back to circa 42% I would expect 6 - 10 Labour MPs.
No way - My wife is a Scot and we lived in Edinburgh for many years and have a large family in the North East. Labour will not recover. The SNP will be held to the fire by Ruth Davidson and she and Nicola Sturgeon will dominate Scots politics for years to come with labour becoming irrelevant
I suspect the electoral psychology will be rather different in 2020 - particularly if there are good reasons to expect Labour - and other parties - to recover some of the ground lost to the SNP in 2015.'How many seats are the SNP going to lose?' might well be a subject of speculation by that time.
They may lose some in the borders, Fife and the North East to SCON and Lib Dems but none to labour
I'm reluctant to put a number on it, but there will be some traditional Labor voters for whom the biggest issue is defending the UK, and therefor will vote Tory if they think they live in an SNP/Con marginal, as evidence for this I will point to the 2015 GE and one Con Seat in Scotland and the 5 SNP seats with Con in second place, which had the largest swings to con and large drops in Lab voters. but I would be interested to know if there was something else yo can point to that may have coursed this.
At the very least there will be natural Tory voters who had in the past tactically voted Lab, who may now come back, not to mention natural LD voters who may now tactically vote tory not Lab.
Unfortunately it is clear cut.
I'M IN have rented a huge shop front on Main Street and are very visible. There are no Leave voices. Govt, Opposition and all of the media are IN.
The danger of Brexit to Gibraltar is being discussed every day in every coffee shop and bar by ordinary members of the public who will see their jobs and lives transformed by this vote.
People fear a return to the 70s when the Spanish blockaded us and closed the border. Food was brought in by sea. We had rationing. On the plus side, dating was easier because you already had all of your cousins' phone numbers.
My company has a million pound contract lined up with a German company which will create 220 new local jobs . All of the paperwork is ready, unsigned. It only goes ahead with Remain. Brexit will cost me several contracts across thd border and our wargaming has us dropping 25 to 30 staff. Obviously I will drop Spaniards first and locals only as a last resort. But some will be Gibraltarians without doubt.
In the the face of this I will still vote Leave because I am British and Leave is in the best long term interests of Britain. So I will vote positively for my children and I will take the short term pain for them if Brexit happens.
But I'm predicting 90/10 Remain here. Everyone wonders if the small electorate of Scotland might tip a close result to Remain. My nightmare scenario is that Gib tips the balance.
I would offer a thread header on it but my emails to Mike about articles don't get answered.