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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s Ipsos-MORI ratings continue to decline while Corb

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    What are the figures in brackets?
    The change since Obama last told us to stay in the EU?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    What are the figures in brackets?
    The change since Obama last told us to stay in the EU?
    Well, quite!
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    LayneLayne Posts: 163

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    So it looks like the "clown" Boris was smart to keep Obama's lecturing in the news after all.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    IIRC SkyData asked the same question just after his speech.

    rcs1000 said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    What are the figures in brackets?
    The change since Obama last told us to stay in the EU?
    Well, quite!
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    IIRC SkyData asked the same question just after his speech.

    rcs1000 said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    What are the figures in brackets?
    The change since Obama last told us to stay in the EU?
    Well, quite!
    Ah, thanks.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. Layne, stopped clocks are right twice a day. Boris remains an oaf.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    The Eurozone, despite all its other faults, runs a massive current account surplus.

    Really?

    It wouldn't surprise me - they have a massive surplus in trade with the UK for instance, and they are very protectionist.
    There's all the data on tariff you could possibly want here: http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx

    By and large, the US and the EU have very similar average tariff levels, which are typically just below WTO requirements.

    China, India, Japan, and much of Africa and South America are very protectionist, and have quite a lot of tariffs well above WTO levels.

    Singapore and a few other places have very low tariffs.

    The place where the EU shows very clear protectionist tendencies is in agriculture. In goods and services it's actually got a very open economy.
    As measured by tariffs, yes. But the main protectionist instruments are not tariffs, but NTBs - the effect of which is considerable and not just in agriculture.
    Which are the specific NTBs that you are thinking of?

    When I last read through the Doha round minutes (https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm) there were very few outstanding issues with EU NTBs. (And, for that matter, there weren't that many with the US.)

    Almost all the NTB issues related to India, China and Japan,
    Robert - have a look at the estimates by Scott Bradford (2003) which Patrick Minford also used in his recent work.

    Ecorys have some interesting estimates as well p.15

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/198115/bis-13-869-economic-impact-on-uk-of-tranatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-between-eu-and-us.pdf
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    @Surbiton FPT
    surbiton said:

    Indigo said:

    Maybe we could be an associate member of the EU, like Turkey.

    This wouild mean free trade and visa free travel but not having to go along with the rest of the rules.

    And no right to work or settle?
    There are plenty of Turkish workers in Germany.
    "If visa requirements are lifted completely, each of these persons could buy a cheap plane ticket to any German airport, utter the word 'asylum,' and trigger a years-long judicial process with a good chance of ending in a residency permit." — German analyst Andrew Hammel.
    How stupid is that quote ? Turkey's economy is in the top 15 in the world. The Turkish per capita income is far higher than many EU countries.
    Genuine question. Unless I miss my guess, chauvanist, religiously fundamentalist, nationalist, folk with very old-fashioned ideas on the role of women in society would be very low down your food chain.

    What exactly is it about them being from over a border that makes you like them so much?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Dave viewed less favourably than any of his 2011 ratings, even though he's improved from last time.
    The inevitable "pendulum" swings against the incumbent. Whether it'll get there by 2020 is another matter !
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208

    Mr. Layne, stopped clocks are right twice a day. Boris remains an oaf.

    Lucky Generals...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2016
    At the 2012 local elections the LDs won 289 seats. I wonder how many they'll be able to hold onto this year.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Imagine if Boris had a more focused take down of Obama intervention....

    I personally think Obama would have been wiser to do a Liz style intervention...i.e. it is up for the British people to decide, but one should consider the decision very carefully. The "back of the queue" stuff was way over the top. As the Queen parody account put perfectly...

    https://twitter.com/Queen_UK/status/724295307287248896
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. Layne, stopped clocks are right twice a day. Boris remains an oaf.

    His latest offering is quite remarkable

    @BorisJohnson: We remember with undying gratitude the Anzacs who gave their lives for freedom (1/2)

    Ok, so far... But then this

    @BorisJohnson: Amazing to think that we discriminate against Australians + NZers who want to come to this country + in favour of those from the EU (2/2)

    WTAF?
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Layne said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    So it looks like the "clown" Boris was smart to keep Obama's lecturing in the news after all.
    Precisely the opposite of what the Cameron arse lickers on here were disssembling.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Outters will begin to shift their line. You'll start seing articles claiming anything over 40% is a win for them and a defeat for Cameron.

    @DPJHodges: Owen Paterson says current referendum won't settle the issue. So it took about 4 hours.

    What do they fecking expect? Sceptics are sceptics. They will always want OUT. And will continue to fight for it.
    Don't bother with Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, he is one of the leftie open borders brigade.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. 86, Alexander and Caesar were both lucky generals. Until they weren't.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AlbertoNardelli: Africans For Britain Group Quits Anti-EU Campaign Over Boris Johnson's Obama Comments https://t.co/RZap7Q2yVX
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    As for data showing the Obama intervention isn't as popular as it was initially, the feeling changed when his tone went negative. When he was talking up the benefits of being in the EU to the UK/US relationship he was more dangerous than when he went negative and started talking about threats and waterboarding the British economy for having the temerity to vote to leave.

    It's one thing for the British PM and chancellor to give out warnings about leaving and what it would do to the economy etc... but foreign nationals doling out threats against this country isn't going to be well received by all but a few sycophants that were probably already in the remain camp.

    The last thing remain need is a visit from Mutti telling us that Germany will decide to send in the Luftwaffe if we vote to leave and having Dave stand by grinning at the idea of this.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    AndyJS said:

    At the 2012 local elections the LDs won 289 seats. I wonder how many they'll be able to hold onto this year.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm

    It's a very interesting question. They were are 14% in the polls then, and are at 8% now. It could be very ugly. Or it may throw up some surprises.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Senior editor on Bangladesh's first LGBT magazine hacked to death, media reports and officials say

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36128729
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Whilst in this country Germaine Greer and Peter Tatchell[sp] get no-platformed for not being PC enough, in Bangladesh the first editor of an LGBT magazine has been hacked to death:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36128729
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    rcs1000 said:

    The Eurozone, despite all its other faults, runs a massive current account surplus.

    Really?

    Here you go: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/current-account

    Eurozone current account surplus came in at €11.1 billion in February of 2016 compared to an upwardly revised €8.3 billion surplus in the previous month. The surpluses in balances of goods (to €25.5 billion from €13.6 billion in January), services (to €3.1 billion from €1.9 billion) and primary income (to €6.3 billion from €2.6 billion) widened while the secondary income deficit increased (to €-23.9 billion from €-9.9 billion). Current Account in the Euro Area averaged 2.93 EUR Billion from 1999 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 44.20 EUR Billion in December of 2015
    I'm no economist but that simply doesn't make sense. 11bn in a month? Come on, what's the catch?
    The catch is that Germany does very well because of a structurally undervalued currency (the Euro is a lot weaker than the DM would have been). The cost is that it stifles the exports of the PIGS on the basis on an artificially high exchange rate. But the Germans seem unwilling to pick up the price - in the form of fiscal transfers - which are needed to square the circle.

    Separately, @rcs1000 is wrong that there is no inflation - it's just asset price inflation rather than consumer or retail inflation this time. It's more worrying, in my mind, because monetary policy is distorting the price setting mechanism.

    And growth in sclerotic at the point where monetary policy is running out of room, and there's little scope for fiscal activism given the structurally high levels of government spending.

    At some point the shoe will drop. But it could be a long time coming.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Scott_P said:

    Mr. Layne, stopped clocks are right twice a day. Boris remains an oaf.

    His latest offering is quite remarkable

    @BorisJohnson: We remember with undying gratitude the Anzacs who gave their lives for freedom (1/2)

    Ok, so far... But then this

    @BorisJohnson: Amazing to think that we discriminate against Australians + NZers who want to come to this country + in favour of those from the EU (2/2)

    WTAF?
    Well neither of those statements is false. Stick to retwatting other people's thoughts/ideas, you're not very good at original thinking.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    Ouch.

    Sounds like something Frank Nitti would have said to a corner shop owner.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    Mr. 86, Alexander and Caesar were both lucky generals. Until they weren't.

    Caesar was always a 'lucky' general wasn't he? It was his political judgement that cost him.
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    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    Have you ever been to Coventry? In what way is it lovely?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited April 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @BorisJohnson: Amazing to think that we discriminate against Australians + NZers who want to come to this country + in favour of those from the EU (2/2)

    That's correct.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    Layne said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    So it looks like the "clown" Boris was smart to keep Obama's lecturing in the news after all.
    As I said, I've been surprised by the amount of annoyance over Obama's interevention.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    Well neither of those statements is false.

    We should discriminate in favour of people that fought with us, unless they speak Polish...

    WTAF?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    edited April 2016
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Eurozone, despite all its other faults, runs a massive current account surplus.

    Really?

    Here you go: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/current-account

    Eurozone current account surplus came in at €11.1 billion in February of 2016 compared to an upwardly revised €8.3 billion surplus in the previous month. The surpluses in balances of goods (to €25.5 billion from €13.6 billion in January), services (to €3.1 billion from €1.9 billion) and primary income (to €6.3 billion from €2.6 billion) widened while the secondary income deficit increased (to €-23.9 billion from €-9.9 billion). Current Account in the Euro Area averaged 2.93 EUR Billion from 1999 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 44.20 EUR Billion in December of 2015
    I'm no economist but that simply doesn't make sense. 11bn in a month? Come on, what's the catch?
    The catch is that Germany does very well because of a structurally undervalued currency (the Euro is a lot weaker than the DM would have been). The cost is that it stifles the exports of the PIGS on the basis on an artificially high exchange rate. But the Germans seem unwilling to pick up the price - in the form of fiscal transfers - which are needed to square the circle.

    Separately, @rcs1000 is wrong that there is no inflation - it's just asset price inflation rather than consumer or retail inflation this time. It's more worrying, in my mind, because monetary policy is distorting the price setting mechanism.

    And growth in sclerotic at the point where monetary policy is running out of room, and there's little scope for fiscal activism given the structurally high levels of government spending.

    At some point the shoe will drop. But it could be a long time coming.
    All the PIIGS run current amount surpluses, and exports from Spain are up 55% in the last five years. It's about 40% for Portugal and Greece, and 30% for Italy. I'll drag out the exact numbers when I'm back in the office tomorrow.

    The biggest current account surplus in EU is the Netherlands, the biggest deficit is us.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    what are the changes from?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well neither of those statements is false.

    We should discriminate in favour of people that fought with us, unless they speak Polish...

    WTAF?
    As I said, you're not very good at original content, stick to twatting other people's thoughts.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    @Charles, yes there is asset price inflation, but I think London house prices are down a fair chunk from their 2014 highs.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. F, so far, so am I. But what matters it how it affects things on polling day. Will people remember being annoyed/angry, or the underlying message?

    Mr. Herdson, a fair point, it was politics that cost Caesar. Alexander really did fall to bad luck though. [Mind you, he had, quite a short time beforehand, survived being shot in the lung whilst trapped in a city with just two men protecting him from a horde. One of those (maybe Peithon) went on to be an extra Bodyguard, and became a satrap and rubbish Diadochus].

    Mr. Eagles, during WWII, the Germans made jests about adding new words, such as 'coventrated', in anticipation of what the Luftwaffe would do to the city. Hence me choosing Coventry.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,284

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    'Lovely' is stretching it a bit..
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Just competed a YouGov - one of the extra questions was about Obama's intervention, 53% inappropriate running total.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    That was a "grown-up" speech from Theresa May but I wonder how many people listened to it? SKY cut away and as far as I'm aware the BBC didn't cover it.
    It's a pity more of the "senior" women are not more prominent - there are too many male egos in play.
    Nigel Farage is just itching to be "top dog."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Dave still ahead of Gov't approval, if the Conservatives pick the wrong leader - it's hello Jezza in 2020 :p
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Charles said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    what are the changes from?
    The last time they asked the question which was just after the Obama article in the Telegraph which was widely reported as "UK stronger in EU, US relationship with UK stronger with EU membership". It was when he went negative and started doling out punishment for leaving that opinion started to turn against him.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    Sorry to be a stuck record, but surely IPSOS Mori asked a referendum question in this.

    Where is it?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The anger seems largely aimed squarely at Cameron for prompting Obama to do this.
    Sean_F said:

    Layne said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    So it looks like the "clown" Boris was smart to keep Obama's lecturing in the news after all.
    As I said, I've been surprised by the amount of annoyance over Obama's interevention.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Mr. Layne, stopped clocks are right twice a day. Boris remains an oaf.

    His latest offering is quite remarkable

    @BorisJohnson: We remember with undying gratitude the Anzacs who gave their lives for freedom (1/2)

    Ok, so far... But then this

    @BorisJohnson: Amazing to think that we discriminate against Australians + NZers who want to come to this country + in favour of those from the EU (2/2)

    WTAF?
    Factually true, though
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    IIRC SkyData asked the same question just after Obama's speech. This is the wider sunk-in review.
    Charles said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    what are the changes from?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    "I'm absolutely bloody furious with my bank manager. He didn't believe my business plan. Said it didn't make sense. What a stupid git."

    "So are you going ahead?"

    "No, of course not, I couldn't get the loan."
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well neither of those statements is false.

    We should discriminate in favour of people that fought with us, unless they speak Polish...

    WTAF?
    "People that fought with us"

    They'll be getting on a bit now won't they?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Factually true, though

    So we don't "remember with undying gratitude" those "who gave their lives for freedom" "from the EU"...

    What an arse.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited April 2016

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    'Lovely' is stretching it a bit..
    The cathedral (and the old ruins of the last one) are quite nice, and Spon Street shows the city as it was pre-luftwaffe. For an otherwise creative decade though, architecture in the 60s was an utter shocker - and Coventry got more than it's fair share of dire buildings in the rebuild.

    It should work it's way out in time..

    http://i1.coventrytelegraph.net/incoming/article2976630.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/spon-street-in-coventry-city-centre-670038000.jpg sums it up in a photo.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Sean_F said:

    Layne said:

    SkyData
    Will Obama make you more or less likely to vote Remain?
    Age 18-34:
    26% more (-14), 18% less (+9)
    Age 55+:
    16% more (+1), 41% less (+15)

    So it looks like the "clown" Boris was smart to keep Obama's lecturing in the news after all.
    As I said, I've been surprised by the amount of annoyance over Obama's interevention.
    Yes, a surprising number of metropolitan/trendy friends using the "who the hell does he think he is" tone about Obama. More than I thought there would be, loads in my work Whatsapp group wondering what Dave was trying to achieve by having Obama go negative, loads of remainers worried back then it wouldn't work.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Cameron's pom pom supporters messrs Nabavi and TSE have written that Cameron's ratings are improving.... Incredible.

    Which bit of '+3% swing from March 2016' did you have difficulty with?
    How about this?

    Mike Smithson ‎@MSmithsonPB
    "Cameron has his 2nd worst month ever amongst CON voters in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings"
    That does not rule out the fact that they have, indeed, improved since last month.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    Have you ever been to Coventry? In what way is it lovely?
    I went as far as the ring road once. The Tories wanted to give me some media training :)
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited April 2016
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well neither of those statements is false.

    We should discriminate in favour of people that fought with us, unless they speak Polish...

    WTAF?
    Well I'd be happy to treat both Polish and Au/NZ potential immigrants the same. But we can't at the moment.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. P, modern history isn't my strong point, but weren't the Germans on the other side? :p
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    MaxPB said:

    Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

    71% of Tory voters are still satisfied with him, is all relative. Ignore the noisy minority
    Not looked at it in detail, but in April 2012, when these last elections were fought, Cameron's absolute satisfaction rating amongst Tory voters was 68% and his net rating was +39%
    So on both scores, he's doing better today than he was in April 2012.
    Are there not fewer Tory voters now?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    An earthquake would fix it.
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    'Lovely' is stretching it a bit..
    The cathedral (and the old ruins of the last one) are quite nice, and Spon Street shows the city as it was pre-luftwaffe. For an otherwise creative decade though, architecture in the 60s was an utter shocker - and Coventry got more than it's fair share of dire buildings in the rebuild.

    It should work it's way out in time..

    http://i1.coventrytelegraph.net/incoming/article2976630.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/spon-street-in-coventry-city-centre-670038000.jpg sums it up in a photo.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    @Charles, yes there is asset price inflation, but I think London house prices are down a fair chunk from their 2014 highs.

    About 10-15%, IMHO. Mainly that's due to tax changes than anything else.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Well said.
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well neither of those statements is false.

    We should discriminate in favour of people that fought with us, unless they speak Polish...

    WTAF?
    Well I'd be happy to treat both Polish and Au/NZ potential immigrants the same. But we can't at the moment.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well neither of those statements is false.

    We should discriminate in favour of people that fought with us, unless they speak Polish...

    WTAF?
    "People that fought with us"

    They'll be getting on a bit now won't they?
    It's also badly phrased!

    I'd argue the Germans fought with us, while the Poles fought alongside us
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    "I'm absolutely bloody furious with my bank manager. He didn't believe my business plan. Said it didn't make sense. What a stupid git."

    "So are you going ahead?"

    "No, of course not, I couldn't get the loan."

    Well it's not really the same, Richard. People still have the option of voting to leave. Obama hasn't taken the option off the ballot paper.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Factually true, though

    So we don't "remember with undying gratitude" those "who gave their lives for freedom" "from the EU"...

    What an arse.
    Read my follow up post. And leave out the insults. Uncalled for.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited April 2016
    Scott_P said:
    Leicester's road system is way worse ! At least you can get round the ring road quickly enough if you miss your turning :smile:
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Well I'd be happy to treat both Polish and Au/NZ potential immigrants the same. But we can't at the moment.

    What do you think is preventing us from offering a Au/NZ immigrant the same terms as a Pole?

    Of course Australia and New Zealand discriminate against immigration from the UK...
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    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

    71% of Tory voters are still satisfied with him, is all relative. Ignore the noisy minority
    Not looked at it in detail, but in April 2012, when these last elections were fought, Cameron's absolute satisfaction rating amongst Tory voters was 68% and his net rating was +39%
    So on both scores, he's doing better today than he was in April 2012.
    Are there not fewer Tory voters now?
    No. The opposite

    April 2012 Con VI 35%

    April 2016 Con VI 38%
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    And leave out the insults. Uncalled for.

    I meant Boris, not you.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2016
    MaxPB said:

    "I'm absolutely bloody furious with my bank manager. He didn't believe my business plan. Said it didn't make sense. What a stupid git."

    "So are you going ahead?"

    "No, of course not, I couldn't get the loan."

    Well it's not really the same, Richard. People still have the option of voting to leave. Obama hasn't taken the option off the ballot paper.
    My point is that people telling an opinion pollster that they don't like Obama 'interfering' does not at all mean that his intervention hasn't had a dramatic effect in undermining the Leave case. There may even be a small move towards Leave in the opinion polls, as it's a cost-free way of being indignant.

    But no sentient being is seriously more likely to vote Leave as a result of being miffed, are they? Whereas a number of sentient beings will appreciate that it rather blows a hole in Leave's case.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Well I'd be happy to treat both Polish and Au/NZ potential immigrants the same. But we can't at the moment.

    What do you think is preventing us from offering a Au/NZ immigrant the same terms as a Pole?

    Of course Australia and New Zealand discriminate against immigration from the UK...
    Practicality. Freedom of movement makes no sense unless reciprocated

    I'm in favour of a points based system of immigration.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,284
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    'Lovely' is stretching it a bit..
    The cathedral (and the old ruins of the last one) are quite nice, and Spon Street shows the city as it was pre-luftwaffe. For an otherwise creative decade though, architecture in the 60s was an utter shocker - and Coventry got more than it's fair share of dire buildings in the rebuild.

    It should work it's way out in time..

    http://i1.coventrytelegraph.net/incoming/article2976630.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/spon-street-in-coventry-city-centre-670038000.jpg sums it up in a photo.
    My mum lived in Huncote & Loughborough for about six years in the 80s so I saw a bit of the environs.

    On the plus side, it set me up for Glasgow!

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well neither of those statements is false.

    We should discriminate in favour of people that fought with us, unless they speak Polish...

    WTAF?
    I didn't think even you were that stupid, but apparently you are.

    We currently discriminate in favour of the Poles by virtue of them being in the EU, and against the Australians and New Zealands because they are not, and yet all three countries helped us generously. But you know all this.

    Ideally we should discriminate against no one and in favour of no one because of where they come from, or what color their skin is, but whether they can contribute usefully to the country, and with a reasonable chance of fitting in. But you know all this as well.

    But you can't resist creating little pointless facile little arguments and scoring the cheapest most pointless points because you think it helps your cause, which to be honest it doesn't. Still keeps you off the streets I guess.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Scott_P said:
    Worse than the ring road is the "Square-About" on the A45....
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    An earthquake would fix it.

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    'Lovely' is stretching it a bit..
    The cathedral (and the old ruins of the last one) are quite nice, and Spon Street shows the city as it was pre-luftwaffe. For an otherwise creative decade though, architecture in the 60s was an utter shocker - and Coventry got more than it's fair share of dire buildings in the rebuild.

    It should work it's way out in time..

    http://i1.coventrytelegraph.net/incoming/article2976630.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/spon-street-in-coventry-city-centre-670038000.jpg sums it up in a photo.
    I spent a week with 4th RTR in Osnabruck once upon a time. It has a truly lovely but tiny altstadt - the bit the RAF missed. Apart from that modern Osnabruck is a horrific concrete Germanic monster of a place. Same is true of Darmstadt, which I made a small detour to visit last year purely on the grounds that it was one of the cities that the RAF managed to get a firestorm going in - I wanted to see if anything nice had survived. Not really.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Practicality. Freedom of movement makes no sense unless reciprocated

    So the reason we "discriminate" against Australasia is because they discriminate against us.

    Reasonable, and completely at odds with Boris' message.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Why shouldn't Albania aspire to join? It is kind-of in Europe, isn't it?

    And Leave is overusing the NHS. Particularly this week.
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    LayneLayne Posts: 163
    Reading Theresa May's speech, I have to say it is a far more honest and respectable argument than Cameron's and Osborne's campaign of cheating and fabrications. But after Cameron's euro scepticism turned out to be nothing beyond a marketing pitch. If May wants to be leader, she needs to prove she can get immigration down to 100,000 inside the EU, and a bankable commitment to no more EU expansion and exit from the ECHR and CFR. She must also oppose any Eurozone deal being waved through without the UK negotiating hard to return powers.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'I'm in favour of a points based system of immigration. '

    Something that must, it seems, be denied to Britain at all costs.
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    Sir Nicholas Soames has retweeted my tweet.

    Best day ever.
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    Why shouldn't Albania aspire to join? It is kind-of in Europe, isn't it?

    And Leave is overusing the NHS. Particularly this week.
    Especially given that most Leavers regard free-at-the-point-of-use health care as a form of Satanism...

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    Layne said:

    Reading Theresa May's speech, I have to say it is a far more honest and respectable argument than Cameron's and Osborne's campaign of cheating and fabrications. But after Cameron's euro scepticism turned out to be nothing beyond a marketing pitch. If May wants to be leader, she needs to prove she can get immigration down to 100,000 inside the EU, and a bankable commitment to no more EU expansion and exit from the ECHR and CFR. She must also oppose any Eurozone deal being waved through without the UK negotiating hard to return powers.

    Who are you to tell her what she must and must not do?

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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    MaxPB said:

    "I'm absolutely bloody furious with my bank manager. He didn't believe my business plan. Said it didn't make sense. What a stupid git."

    "So are you going ahead?"

    "No, of course not, I couldn't get the loan."

    Well it's not really the same, Richard. People still have the option of voting to leave. Obama hasn't taken the option off the ballot paper.
    My point is that people telling an opinion pollster that they don't like Obama 'interfering' does not at all mean that his intervention hasn't had a dramatic effect in undermining the Leave case. There may even be a small move towards Leave in the opinion polls, as it's a cost-free way of being indignant.

    But no sentient being is seriously more likely to vote Leave as a result of being miffed, are they? Whereas a number of sentient beings will appreciate that it rather blows a hole in Leave's case.

    "But no sentient being is seriously more likely to vote Leave as a result of being miffed, are they?"

    I'm not sure you understand people !

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    "I'm absolutely bloody furious with my bank manager. He didn't believe my business plan. Said it didn't make sense. What a stupid git."

    "So are you going ahead?"

    "No, of course not, I couldn't get the loan."

    Well it's not really the same, Richard. People still have the option of voting to leave. Obama hasn't taken the option off the ballot paper.
    My point is that people telling an opinion pollster that they don't like Obama 'interfering' does not at all mean that his intervention hasn't had a dramatic effect in undermining the Leave case. There may even be a small move towards Leave in the opinion polls, as it's a cost-free way of being indignant.

    But no sentient being is seriously more likely to vote Leave as a result of being miffed, are they? Whereas a number of sentient beings will appreciate that it rather blows a hole in Leave's case.
    Well anyone who has even two brain cells to rub together will realise that we don't have a trade deal with the US right now and we do just fine. Front or back of the, err, line won't really make any difference in a Brexit scenario.

    Anyway, it isn't about switching people to Leave or Remain it is about turnout, the indignance may lead more people to stay home on the remain side and motivate more leave supporters to come out to vote.

    This is all about who actually turns up and that's where Obama's intervention is probably less helpful than Remain are hoping for.

    With that I really must get some work done!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    The picture is ludicrous, btw. The detachments are shown formed up just about exactly on the birthday cake (Queen Victoria's Memorial).
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Practicality. Freedom of movement makes no sense unless reciprocated

    So the reason we "discriminate" against Australasia is because they discriminate against us.

    Reasonable, and completely at odds with Boris' message.
    Or the other way around. The issue, as you know full well, is that we have no choice when it comes to Poland, Slovakia and everywhere else in the EU.
  • Options

    Cameron's pom pom supporters messrs Nabavi and TSE have written that Cameron's ratings are improving.... Incredible.

    Which bit of '+3% swing from March 2016' did you have difficulty with?
    How about this?

    Mike Smithson ‎@MSmithsonPB
    "Cameron has his 2nd worst month ever amongst CON voters in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings"
    That does not rule out the fact that they have, indeed, improved since last month.
    I will trust OGH's interpretation if it is ok with you.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. Hopkins, the Third Punic War kicked off because the Romans imposed such stark terms that even the meek, humbled and even craven city decided it couldn't take any more.

    Rome did win the war, but what should've taken an afternoon (it was the Empire versus a city) lasted about four years.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Cameron's pom pom supporters messrs Nabavi and TSE have written that Cameron's ratings are improving.... Incredible.

    Which bit of '+3% swing from March 2016' did you have difficulty with?
    How about this?

    Mike Smithson ‎@MSmithsonPB
    "Cameron has his 2nd worst month ever amongst CON voters in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings"
    That does not rule out the fact that they have, indeed, improved since last month.
    I will trust OGH's interpretation if it is ok with you.
    2nd worst can mean that they've improved. It is not inconsistent with the OGH interpretation.

  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    Have you ever been to Coventry? In what way is it lovely?
    Coventry Airport is great. Lots of old planes still flying.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classic_Air_Force
    Dragon Rapide
    Vampire
    Venom
    Gloster Meteor
    EE Canberra
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    Layne said:

    Reading Theresa May's speech, I have to say it is a far more honest and respectable argument than Cameron's and Osborne's campaign of cheating and fabrications. But after Cameron's euro scepticism turned out to be nothing beyond a marketing pitch. If May wants to be leader, she needs to prove she can get immigration down to 100,000 inside the EU, and a bankable commitment to no more EU expansion and exit from the ECHR and CFR. She must also oppose any Eurozone deal being waved through without the UK negotiating hard to return powers.

    Agree with all of that. Her record on immigration is simply woeful. I suspect part of that is due to Osborne's budget restrictions and meddling. But she has made a stand here against the end of days nonsense from that pair of twats.
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    Higher dissatisfaction among Tory voters but overall +3, the likes of surbiton and other Labour voters happy with Dave on PB. I'm not sure about you guys, but it doesn't seem like a sustainable situation for Dave or the party at the moment, something has to give.

    71% of Tory voters are still satisfied with him, is all relative. Ignore the noisy minority
    Not looked at it in detail, but in April 2012, when these last elections were fought, Cameron's absolute satisfaction rating amongst Tory voters was 68% and his net rating was +39%
    So on both scores, he's doing better today than he was in April 2012.
    Are there not fewer Tory voters now?
    No. The opposite

    April 2012 Con VI 35%

    April 2016 Con VI 38%
    chuckle.

  • Options

    Cameron's pom pom supporters messrs Nabavi and TSE have written that Cameron's ratings are improving.... Incredible.

    Which bit of '+3% swing from March 2016' did you have difficulty with?
    How about this?

    Mike Smithson ‎@MSmithsonPB
    "Cameron has his 2nd worst month ever amongst CON voters in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings"
    That does not rule out the fact that they have, indeed, improved since last month.
    I will trust OGH's interpretation if it is ok with you.
    2nd worst can mean that they've improved. It is not inconsistent with the OGH interpretation.

    pedant award whilst ignoring the effing graph in the main article!
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    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    An earthquake would fix it.

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Max,

    "Coventry's a lovely city... it'd be a shame if anything happened to it."

    'Lovely' is stretching it a bit..
    The cathedral (and the old ruins of the last one) are quite nice, and Spon Street shows the city as it was pre-luftwaffe. For an otherwise creative decade though, architecture in the 60s was an utter shocker - and Coventry got more than it's fair share of dire buildings in the rebuild.

    It should work it's way out in time..

    http://i1.coventrytelegraph.net/incoming/article2976630.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/spon-street-in-coventry-city-centre-670038000.jpg sums it up in a photo.
    I spent a week with 4th RTR in Osnabruck once upon a time. It has a truly lovely but tiny altstadt - the bit the RAF missed. Apart from that modern Osnabruck is a horrific concrete Germanic monster of a place. Same is true of Darmstadt, which I made a small detour to visit last year purely on the grounds that it was one of the cities that the RAF managed to get a firestorm going in - I wanted to see if anything nice had survived. Not really.
    I was horrified by a recent visit to Ingolstadt. It's a lovely German city with an entirely intact medieval core.

    WTF were the RAF doing? How did they miss it?
    Poor form indeed!
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "I'm absolutely bloody furious with my bank manager. He didn't believe my business plan. Said it didn't make sense. What a stupid git."

    "So are you going ahead?"

    "No, of course not, I couldn't get the loan."

    Well it's not really the same, Richard. People still have the option of voting to leave. Obama hasn't taken the option off the ballot paper.
    My point is that people telling an opinion pollster that they don't like Obama 'interfering' does not at all mean that his intervention hasn't had a dramatic effect in undermining the Leave case. There may even be a small move towards Leave in the opinion polls, as it's a cost-free way of being indignant.

    But no sentient being is seriously more likely to vote Leave as a result of being miffed, are they? Whereas a number of sentient beings will appreciate that it rather blows a hole in Leave's case.
    Well anyone who has even two brain cells to rub together will realise that we don't have a trade deal with the US right now and we do just fine. Front or back of the, err, line won't really make any difference in a Brexit scenario.

    A large part of the Brexit case was that, yes the economy would take a hit from leaving, but due to all the extra free trade deals we would be able to sign once freed from the shackles of the EU, our economy would be just as strong in the long run.

  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    "I'm absolutely bloody furious with my bank manager. He didn't believe my business plan. Said it didn't make sense. What a stupid git."

    "So are you going ahead?"

    "No, of course not, I couldn't get the loan."

    "It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement," said 'the bank manager'.

    The business plan seems to be sound. The regional manager doesn't want to make the local manager look like a complete idiot in his own branch.
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    Cameron's pom pom supporters messrs Nabavi and TSE have written that Cameron's ratings are improving.... Incredible.

    Which bit of '+3% swing from March 2016' did you have difficulty with?
    How about this?

    Mike Smithson ‎@MSmithsonPB
    "Cameron has his 2nd worst month ever amongst CON voters in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings"
    That does not rule out the fact that they have, indeed, improved since last month.
    I will trust OGH's interpretation if it is ok with you.
    2nd worst can mean that they've improved. It is not inconsistent with the OGH interpretation.

    pedant award whilst ignoring the effing graph in the main article!
    It's really not Cameron's 2nd worst month ever.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I don't think it's possible to *overuse* the NHS - and it's only Monday!

    Why shouldn't Albania aspire to join? It is kind-of in Europe, isn't it?

    And Leave is overusing the NHS. Particularly this week.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Practicality. Freedom of movement makes no sense unless reciprocated

    So the reason we "discriminate" against Australasia is because they discriminate against us.

    Reasonable, and completely at odds with Boris' message.
    We are restricted from offering freedom of movement to a non-EU member. But I guess you didn't know that, right?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Layne said:

    Reading Theresa May's speech, I have to say it is a far more honest and respectable argument than Cameron's and Osborne's campaign of cheating and fabrications. But after Cameron's euro scepticism turned out to be nothing beyond a marketing pitch. If May wants to be leader, she needs to prove she can get immigration down to 100,000 inside the EU, and a bankable commitment to no more EU expansion and exit from the ECHR and CFR. She must also oppose any Eurozone deal being waved through without the UK negotiating hard to return powers.

    Who are you to tell her what she must and must not do?

    A voter I assume.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    Well anyone who has even two brain cells to rub together will realise that we don't have a trade deal with the US right now and we do just fine. Front or back of the, err, line won't really make any difference in a Brexit scenario.

    Odd, then, that a central plank of the Leave campaign's case has been that it will give us more freedom to sign trade deals.

    There's no getting arouind the fact that Obama's Exocet (even though it was a statement of the obvious, and indeed a restatement of long-established US positions) has blown up the engine room of the good ship Leave.
This discussion has been closed.