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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Meeks, I think that's a correlation classic, not unlike the number of ice creams sold being very well correlated with the chances of drowning on a given day.

    Ice creams don't cause drowning, nor does drowning cause ice creams. They're both affected by factor z (it being a sunny day).

    Mr. Jessop, I agree, but they also risk a Grand Moff Tarkin mistake (squeezing so tightly more countries slip through their fingers). If an undesirable Hotel California deal is proposed, some countries may prefer leaving.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The poor dears at the Guardian are doing their best, but it's hard work making anything out of this thin gruel:

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/04/tory-donors-links-to-offshore-firms-revealed-in-leaked-panama-papers
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.

    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Which is a reason for the EU not to give us a very good deal - it might encourage others to leave. This will be offset by other factors, but will be in their minds.

    As it is, the EU bosses will be concerned about Cameron's renegotiation setting a trend. It'll be easy for another country - say Ireland - to throw a strop and say they want to leave unless they get a better deal. You cannot have too many exceptions before the whole thing fails.
    There has always been the argument that the EU should never have expanded into Scandinavia and the British Isles because both places have a very strong identity that wouldn't be easily subsumed into the "European" identity that they are trying to push on the continent. I think it is fair to say that line of thinking was probably correct.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,278
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:
    I've covered him, but I think if Trump doesn't make it on the first ballot and is clearly losing delegates after the second - alot of his delegates will switch to Cruz.

    Cruz has played an excellent shadow game. I think the talk of Ryan at 54% chance is fanciful.

    Cruz is my best result, the Donald second and Kasich or Ryan 3rd or 4th from memory. I daren't look at Betfair these days !
    It's not clear who "One of the nation's best-wired Republicans" actually is - 54% is crazy, but he has a reasonable chance as the default NOTA candidate. I wouldn't go above 10% personally - and probably 5% is more realistic.

    From a betting POV, expect this speculation to continue. There's no way it can be shut down before the convention - at least not unless Trump looks set for 1237.
    Mike's going to be unbearable if Ryan gets the nomination. He got on him at 150/1
    I think there are quite a few PB'ers who would be very happy if Ryan gets the nomination.

    Personally, I'm on him for POTUS @ 999/1 for more than just a few quid.
    Makes my 46 for GOP look positively pathetic!
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.

    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Which is a reason for the EU not to give us a very good deal - it might encourage others to leave. This will be offset by other factors, but will be in their minds.

    As it is, the EU bosses will be concerned about Cameron's renegotiation setting a trend. It'll be easy for another country - say Ireland - to throw a strop and say they want to leave unless they get a better deal. You cannot have too many exceptions before the whole thing fails.
    That's very true, but the steel tariff episode is a clear demonstration that each nation will act in it's own interest.

    The consequence is that a new tariff regime is still undecided and the Chinese continue to export into the EU.

    If they can't agree to change things where just one product is concerned, how likely are they to agree on a multitude with the UK, especially where the pre-existing conditions are financially favourable to them?

    They will stick with what they have because they simply won't be able to agree on anything new, and they repeatedly show that they will choose the path of least disruption.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    chestnut said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.

    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Which is a reason for the EU not to give us a very good deal - it might encourage others to leave. This will be offset by other factors, but will be in their minds.

    As it is, the EU bosses will be concerned about Cameron's renegotiation setting a trend. It'll be easy for another country - say Ireland - to throw a strop and say they want to leave unless they get a better deal. You cannot have too many exceptions before the whole thing fails.
    That's very true, but the steel tariff episode is a clear demonstration that each nation will act in it's own interest.

    The consequence is that a new tariff regime is still undecided and the Chinese continue to export into the EU.

    If they can't agree to change things where just one product is concerned, how likely are they to agree on a multitude with the UK, especially where the pre-existing conditions are financially favourable to them?

    They will stick with what they have because they simply won't be able to agree on anything new, and they repeatedly show that they will choose the path of least disruption.
    I'm not sure that the steel tariffs are a good way for arguing a leave position. It actually helps us to be in the EU in this instance, our chancellor and government decided to stab our heavy industries in the back to advance UK-Sino relations only to see the PRC tell Osborne to fuck off.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.

    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Which is a reason for the EU not to give us a very good deal - it might encourage others to leave. This will be offset by other factors, but will be in their minds.

    As it is, the EU bosses will be concerned about Cameron's renegotiation setting a trend. It'll be easy for another country - say Ireland - to throw a strop and say they want to leave unless they get a better deal. You cannot have too many exceptions before the whole thing fails.
    There has always been the argument that the EU should never have expanded into Scandinavia and the British Isles because both places have a very strong identity that wouldn't be easily subsumed into the "European" identity that they are trying to push on the continent. I think it is fair to say that line of thinking was probably correct.
    I don't accept this. It's only really the UK that has this problem. Finland and Denmark and the rest integrate when they like, refrain when they don't, but they don't keep threatening to quit and also to get their own way at the same time. And French, German, Italian national identities are hardly plastic and mutable.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Panama papers (not gate yet): has there been an instruction from CCHQ to play it down? If so, why? Who are they trying to protect?
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    I'm not one to pry but I understand the media may be refusing to report a sex scandal involving a prominent figure for political reasons. Whether or not these things are reported it shouldn't come down to politics.

    Is it a scandal? Man and woman have a consenting relationship. MYOB.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not sure that the steel tariffs are a good way for arguing a leave position. It actually helps us to be in the EU in this instance, our chancellor and government decided to stab our heavy industries in the back to advance UK-Sino relations only to see the PRC tell Osborne to fuck off.

    Has anyone seens Angela Leadsom and the People's Republic of China in the same room together ? ;)
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Panama papers (not gate yet): has there been an instruction from CCHQ to play it down? If so, why? Who are they trying to protect?

    Occam's razor would say that if there's "nothing to see here" then that's probably because there's actually nothing to see.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,056
    edited April 2016

    Panama papers (not gate yet): has there been an instruction from CCHQ to play it down? If so, why? Who are they trying to protect?

    Since several media organisations around the world have access to the raw data, it'd be hard to control all of them. The information will get out. If, that is, it exists.

    The story so far wrt the Conservatives is going nowhere. If you remember back a few years, the way the Telegraph did its expose was superb.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    I'm not one to pry but I understand the media may be refusing to report a sex scandal involving a prominent figure for political reasons. Whether or not these things are reported it shouldn't come down to politics.

    Is it a scandal? Man and woman have a consenting relationship. MYOB.
    The traditional answer is a variation of the theme, "Man/Woman breaks their vow and lies to their wife/husband can they be trusted not to do the same to the voters"

    The rejoinder has from time to time been "of course not they are a politician" ;)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
    Am I the only one to read it from the thread that it is yet To Be Determined whether Alastair Meeks has had a good campaign?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    GeoffM said:

    Panama papers (not gate yet): has there been an instruction from CCHQ to play it down? If so, why? Who are they trying to protect?

    Occam's razor would say that if there's "nothing to see here" then that's probably because there's actually nothing to see.
    Hanlon's razor follows this up by saying that even if there is something to see here, it's much more likely to be as the result of a cockup rather than a conspiracy :D
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,457

    Am I the only one to read it from the thread that it is yet To Be Determined whether Alastair Meeks has had a good campaign?

    Lolz!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @haveigotnews: Jeremy Corbyn invited to Glastonbury to speak about social justice. Tickets are £228, or free if you work for one of the corporate sponsors.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,956
    Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD 17h17 hours ago
    Sam Wang Retweeted Ross Douthat
    I've been running some numbers. Based on polls & rules, Trump's probability of a majority is very high. More later.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
    Labour peer looks to have been the lying scumbag we suspected he was:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35961711
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    chestnut said:

    runnymede said:

    chestnut said:

    runnymede said:

    chestnut said:

    Best "End of Days" forecast today?
    British Influence ‎@britinfluence
    Vote for #Brexit would lead to 'implosion' of the continental bloc, warns LSE chief

    I have some sympathy for this perspective. We are not the only disgruntled members.
    The one argument I can see for them to be very awkward on trade is that they will be scared of contagion and collapse.
    They won't want anybody else making a break for it, especially if their currency is the euro.
    Time for the barbed wire and machine gun posts along the Brussels Wall.
    Alternatively it could force fundamental reform within the EU and the eurozone to bring about more economic growth and prosperity.
    Up until now there is just no impetus for fundamental reform.
    No it won't. The people running the EU don't see any need for 'reform' as we would understand it. Quite the opposite - 'reform' as we would understand it would mean 'catastrophe' for them.
    That depends on how fearful they become of their empire crumbling.
    You are missing the point - 'reform' as we understand it would mean the 'empire crumbling' for them.

    Far better in their view to let the UK go than loosen up the whole system.
    I understand your point.

    Their problem would be that the initial dilemma of Brexit will grow when they realise that letting us go might mean that X country and then Y country will also want out.

    How far will they bend to cling on to something? How many will wager that some form of EU would be better than no EU at all?

    We have had two dummy runs with the iScot referendum and the Eurozone crisis.
    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.
    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Definitely Sweden. Less sure about Denmark, which is effectively a member of the eurozone through its currency peg.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,457
    Pulpstar said:

    Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD 17h17 hours ago
    Sam Wang Retweeted Ross Douthat
    I've been running some numbers. Based on polls & rules, Trump's probability of a majority is very high. More later.

    I've held my Trump position throughout the recent panic.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Apart from BBC Journos..does anyone actually read the Guardian..
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    EPG said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.

    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Which is a reason for the EU not to give us a very good deal - it might encourage others to leave. This will be offset by other factors, but will be in their minds.

    As it is, the EU bosses will be concerned about Cameron's renegotiation setting a trend. It'll be easy for another country - say Ireland - to throw a strop and say they want to leave unless they get a better deal. You cannot have too many exceptions before the whole thing fails.
    There has always been the argument that the EU should never have expanded into Scandinavia and the British Isles because both places have a very strong identity that wouldn't be easily subsumed into the "European" identity that they are trying to push on the continent. I think it is fair to say that line of thinking was probably correct.
    I don't accept this. It's only really the UK that has this problem. Finland and Denmark and the rest integrate when they like, refrain when they don't, but they don't keep threatening to quit and also to get their own way at the same time. And French, German, Italian national identities are hardly plastic and mutable.
    Support for EU exit is definitely on the rise in Denmark, as high as 33% in some polls. The recent attempt by the Danish authorities to cancel Denmark's opt outs from EU police and justice integration - which the Danes rejected in a referendum - seems to have boosted support for exit.

    As one of my Danish relations said to me a few years ago 'we are fed up with saying 'no' but with the politicians then asking us the same question again and again'.

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Am I the only one to read it from the thread that it is yet To Be Determined whether Alastair Meeks has had a good campaign?

    titter..!
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    Tricky decision next month - watch this year's election night OR watch last year's all over again on iplayer... if it's still there....
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    chestnut said:

    runnymede said:

    chestnut said:

    runnymede said:

    chestnut said:

    Best "End of Days" forecast today?
    British Influence ‎@britinfluence
    Vote for #Brexit would lead to 'implosion' of the continental bloc, warns LSE chief

    I have some sympathy for this perspective. We are not the only disgruntled members.
    The one argument I can see for them to be very awkward on trade is that they will be scared of contagion and collapse.
    They won't want anybody else making a break for it, especially if their currency is the euro.
    Time for the barbed wire and machine gun posts along the Brussels Wall.
    Alternatively it could force fundamental reform within the EU and the eurozone to bring about more economic growth and prosperity.
    Up until now there is just no impetus for fundamental reform.
    No it won't. The people running the EU don't see any need for 'reform' as we would understand it. Quite the opposite - 'reform' as we would understand it would mean 'catastrophe' for them.
    That depends on how fearful they become of their empire crumbling.
    You are missing the point - 'reform' as we understand it would mean the 'empire crumbling' for them.

    Far better in their view to let the UK go than loosen up the whole system.
    I understand your point.

    Their problem would be that the initial dilemma of Brexit will grow when they realise that letting us go might mean that X country and then Y country will also want out.

    How far will they bend to cling on to something? How many will wager that some form of EU would be better than no EU at all?

    We have had two dummy runs with the iScot referendum and the Eurozone crisis.
    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.
    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Definitely Sweden. Less sure about Denmark, which is effectively a member of the eurozone through its currency peg.
    Well the Danes just voted against an EU provision against the establishment position which is why I have included them.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not sure that the steel tariffs are a good way for arguing a leave position. It actually helps us to be in the EU in this instance, our chancellor and government decided to stab our heavy industries in the back to advance UK-Sino relations only to see the PRC tell Osborne to fuck off.

    I'm not sure it's quite that clear cut, Max.

    As I understand it, the EU is split down the middle on tariffs so it doesn't matter what side we are on, our voice is just one of twenty-eight, while I would imagine that there are plenty of industries in the UK making good on the cheap supply of steel from China.

    Just like the EU, I'd imagine that the UK steel producers want tariffs, while the UK steel consumers want a cheaper commodity.

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/no-scots-bids-for-forth-bridge-contract.8986
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    very keen to hear Der Trump in snowy Wisconsin...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cxpVs-HgPg
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited April 2016

    Labour peer looks to have been the lying scumbag we suspected he was:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35961711

    Can't determine what party he represented from that piece. It's always so much easier when a Tory is involved it's always mentioned up front and centre

    EDIT --- my mistake the BBC labels him as "a veteran Leicester MP" hoho !
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Apart from BBC Journos..does anyone actually read the Guardian..

    I read it occasionally, but probably no surprise to you!
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I think it is deeply disrespectful showing the PM's late father constantly on the news. It must be very upsetting for the PM and his mother. Very cheap politics from The Guardian and BBC.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.

    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Which is a reason for the EU not to give us a very good deal - it might encourage others to leave. This will be offset by other factors, but will be in their minds.

    As it is, the EU bosses will be concerned about Cameron's renegotiation setting a trend. It'll be easy for another country - say Ireland - to throw a strop and say they want to leave unless they get a better deal. You cannot have too many exceptions before the whole thing fails.
    If we choose to move to EFTA and hence remain in the EEA the EU will not be able to do anything about it.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2016

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:
    I've covered him, but I think if Trump doesn't make it on the first ballot and is clearly losing delegates after the second - alot of his delegates will switch to Cruz.

    Cruz has played an excellent shadow game. I think the talk of Ryan at 54% chance is fanciful.

    Cruz is my best result, the Donald second and Kasich or Ryan 3rd or 4th from memory. I daren't look at Betfair these days !
    It's not clear who "One of the nation's best-wired Republicans" actually is - 54% is crazy, but he has a reasonable chance as the default NOTA candidate. I wouldn't go above 10% personally - and probably 5% is more realistic.

    From a betting POV, expect this speculation to continue. There's no way it can be shut down before the convention - at least not unless Trump looks set for 1237.
    Mike's going to be unbearable if Ryan gets the nomination. He got on him at 150/1
    I think there are quite a few PB'ers who would be very happy if Ryan gets the nomination.

    Personally, I'm on him for POTUS @ 999/1 for more than just a few quid.
    Makes my 46 for GOP look positively pathetic!
    Not pathetic at all.

    If you're on at higher odds than the current market price then you're doing something right.

    If you don't mind me asking - do you think Ryan's a back/lay/hold at current odds?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,278
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:
    I've covered him, but I think if Trump doesn't make it on the first ballot and is clearly losing delegates after the second - alot of his delegates will switch to Cruz.

    Cruz has played an excellent shadow game. I think the talk of Ryan at 54% chance is fanciful.

    Cruz is my best result, the Donald second and Kasich or Ryan 3rd or 4th from memory. I daren't look at Betfair these days !
    It's not clear who "One of the nation's best-wired Republicans" actually is - 54% is crazy, but he has a reasonable chance as the default NOTA candidate. I wouldn't go above 10% personally - and probably 5% is more realistic.

    From a betting POV, expect this speculation to continue. There's no way it can be shut down before the convention - at least not unless Trump looks set for 1237.
    Mike's going to be unbearable if Ryan gets the nomination. He got on him at 150/1
    I think there are quite a few PB'ers who would be very happy if Ryan gets the nomination.

    Personally, I'm on him for POTUS @ 999/1 for more than just a few quid.
    Makes my 46 for GOP look positively pathetic!
    Not pathetic at all.

    If you're on at higher odds than the current market price then you're doing something right.
    Thankee. The market thinks he has a 7% chance at the moment. Seems high to me.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Cyclefree said:

    "Trusts work by having beneficial owners who are different from the legal owners."

    Yeah - as in property in this country. The concept of legal and beneficial ownership is standard in property ownership in this country. When you exchange contracts but before completion, the buyer is the beneficial owner whereas the seller is the legal but not the beneficial owner. That is why you should insure the property from the moment of exchange.

    Trusts are perfectly legitimate. And their origin was from the time of the Crusades when departing knights passed property to others but for the benefit of their wives and children who could not own property in their own name. They are used now when parents die before their children are of age, for instance.

    They are widely used in pensions as well and their existence there does not mean that tax is evaded, either.

    Tax evasion is illegal but you cannot simply say that the existence of a trust means that tax has been evaded.

    I'm surprised you didn't mention wills that appoint executors. An executor holds an estate in trust too.

    "Evasion" of tax is illegal by definition. "Avoidance" isn't. But I don't think the distinction gets us anywhere.

    My point is that trusts are one of the main means that the filthy rich use to dodge tax and to obscure who really controls an asset. That many such doings are lawful doesn't make them clean or desirable or even defensible.
    Cyclefree said:



    There are other members of the family other than Dave - his mother, for instance, his brother and sister and their children. Or even Cameron's children, for whom his father might have made provision? After all, you might well want to make provision for a severely disabled grandchild. Are these people not entitled to financial privacy?

    No. He should have thought about the possible effects on his family when he accepted public office. They'll have to live with it. They've got problems? Let them take them up with him in private.

    It's totally legitimate to want information to be made public about all of his and his family's financial doings. Same goes for the prime minister of Thailand.
    Cyclefree said:

    Panama papers (not gate yet): has there been an instruction from CCHQ to play it down? If so, why? Who are they trying to protect?

    "His lordship" "Squeaky Clean" Michael Ashcroft in the first instance?
    Cyclefree said:

    A British taxpayer is obliged to declare any money held abroad, whether in a trust or not, subject to any double taxation treaties.

    They aren't obliged to declare beneficial interests that some other entity holds in trust for them, whether it's held in Britain or in any other jurisdiction.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    I really don't see a rush of countries bolting for the door if we go. Most of them are far happier with EU membership than we are. Even the southern European countries which have had awful economic depressions in recent years retain a touching faith in EU membership as a badge of civilisation and provider of largesse.

    The only other country I could see leaving in the next few years is Hungary.

    I think depending on the kind of Brexit deal we could end up with Sweden and Denmark may follow us out as the only two other nations not obliged to join the Eurozone.
    Which is a reason for the EU not to give us a very good deal - it might encourage others to leave. This will be offset by other factors, but will be in their minds.

    As it is, the EU bosses will be concerned about Cameron's renegotiation setting a trend. It'll be easy for another country - say Ireland - to throw a strop and say they want to leave unless they get a better deal. You cannot have too many exceptions before the whole thing fails.
    If we choose to move to EFTA and hence remain in the EEA the EU will not be able to do anything about it.
    Careful - you will set your namesake off on one of his incredibly tortuous efforts to suggest otherwise
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited April 2016
    (deleted)
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,029
    Tonight's Tory Political Broadcast was strange. The main speaker... midway between two lots of Cameron ...... was a young-ish woman who sounded as though she was reading her script for the first time.
    Cameron sounded like a robot as well.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Tonight's Tory Political Broadcast was strange. The main speaker... midway between two lots of Cameron ...... was a young-ish woman who sounded as though she was reading her script for the first time.
    Cameron sounded like a robot as well.

    I think this is it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mmLkVQmgU8
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SuzanneEvans1: "Here's £1 million quid, I'm buying your party & sacking your NEC." Now will kippers wake up to what's going on? https://t.co/ayz2vMM3gH
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Guardian named the peers / donors...small beer. They must have more than this surely.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    edited April 2016

    I think it is deeply disrespectful showing the PM's late father constantly on the news. It must be very upsetting for the PM and his mother. Very cheap politics from The Guardian and BBC.

    I tend to agree. If they can pin something concrete on Cameron's dad (or anyone else for that matter) then they should come out with it. If they want to make firm allegations of wrong doing then that's fine. Otherwise it's no better than the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Oh good the Greek Marxist idiot on ch4 now...given he was a total disaster why does he always seem to be on BBC / ch4
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    Apols if posted previously.
    The tectonic plates of the Kippers are rumbling.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/arron-banks-ukip-chairman-farage_uk_57028bcce4b0c5bd919b8665
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194

    Guardian named the peers / donors...small beer. They must have more than this surely.

    Probably not. Time and again the BBC and Guardian go to press claiming to have something big and then have nothing. I remember when they claimed to have the smoking gun to bring down FIFA and that turned out to be nothing.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Wel that was total waste of time on ch4...
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Apols if posted previously.
    The tectonic plates of the Kippers are rumbling.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/arron-banks-ukip-chairman-farage_uk_57028bcce4b0c5bd919b8665

    I hope there is a new Eurosceptic party. Just one without all the pub bores like Banks.
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    MP_SE said:

    Apols if posted previously.
    The tectonic plates of the Kippers are rumbling.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/arron-banks-ukip-chairman-farage_uk_57028bcce4b0c5bd919b8665

    I hope there is a new Eurosceptic party. Just one without all the pub bores like Banks.
    Not everyone in the pub is a bore.
    I'm jolly good fun in the pub. :-)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    runnymede said:

    Careful - you will set your namesake off on one of his incredibly tortuous efforts to suggest otherwise

    The idea that we could force 27 EU countries, against their will, to allow us into the EEA-style deal seems completely out with the fairies. (In practice, I think they would, but that's a different matter and it's not absolutely guaranteed.)

    But I'm very happy to be corrected, if there's a link to some knowledgeable source indicating otherwise.

    Incidentally, for my many fans, here's the non-partisan brief I prepared on the various options. Some people might find it useful as a quick guide. It's not intended to describe the merits of the options, but their features. It's quite short, because I wanted to focus on the broad issues, so I don't (for example) mention the theoretical but never-used emergency brake of the EEA agreement.

    http://www.microapl.com/download/EUReferendumBriefingPaper.pdf
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    tlg86 said:

    Guardian named the peers / donors...small beer. They must have more than this surely.

    Probably not. Time and again the BBC and Guardian go to press claiming to have something big and then have nothing. I remember when they claimed to have the smoking gun to bring down FIFA and that turned out to be nothing.
    The fact they have only got a 30min Panorama...you would have thought they could get an hour. The bumper at the start doesn't look like the programme will say much.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,029
    tlg86 said:

    I think it is deeply disrespectful showing the PM's late father constantly on the news. It must be very upsetting for the PM and his mother. Very cheap politics from The Guardian and BBC.

    I tend to agree. If they can pin something concrete on Cameron's dad (or anyone else for that matter) then they should come out with it. If they want to make firm allegations of wrong doing then that's fine. Otherwise it's no better than the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
    Agree; one cannot be responsible for the sins (or otherwise) of ones fathers.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    This Panorama is just the news bulletin.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,029

    MP_SE said:

    Apols if posted previously.
    The tectonic plates of the Kippers are rumbling.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/arron-banks-ukip-chairman-farage_uk_57028bcce4b0c5bd919b8665

    I hope there is a new Eurosceptic party. Just one without all the pub bores like Banks.
    Not everyone in the pub is a bore.
    I'm jolly good fun in the pub. :-)
    Lots of laughs in our loacl on a Saturday. Especially when ManU lose!
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    tlg86 said:

    Guardian named the peers / donors...small beer. They must have more than this surely.

    Probably not. Time and again the BBC and Guardian go to press claiming to have something big and then have nothing. I remember when they claimed to have the smoking gun to bring down FIFA and that turned out to be nothing.
    The fact they have only got a 30min Panorama...you would have thought they could get an hour. The bumper at the start doesn't look like the programme will say much.
    In some ways that doesn't matter: it's the no smoke without fire view of the world (and we've seen it applied to lots of other activities). You may be of the view that domiciling an investment fund in a tax neutral jurisdiction is harmless and the issue is whether the beneficiaries of the fund meet all applicable tax regulations in the jurisdictions whose laws they are subject to. I'm not sure the wider public sees it that way. And I suspect not all beneficiaries did this.

    The wider point is that this firm, on a historical basis, seems to have played fairly fast and loose when dealing with PEPs although they will probably say that they've complied with all Panamanian laws (although the cello player investing in structured products should perhaps have alerted them). My experience of Panamanian law firms generally is that they are sensitive to this. More so in the BVI, Caymans, Bermuda etc.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,228
    tlg86 said:

    I think it is deeply disrespectful showing the PM's late father constantly on the news. It must be very upsetting for the PM and his mother. Very cheap politics from The Guardian and BBC.

    I tend to agree. If they can pin something concrete on Cameron's dad (or anyone else for that matter) then they should come out with it. If they want to make firm allegations of wrong doing then that's fine. Otherwise it's no better than the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
    There were a few on here that entirely approved of the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    I think it is deeply disrespectful showing the PM's late father constantly on the news. It must be very upsetting for the PM and his mother. Very cheap politics from The Guardian and BBC.

    I tend to agree. If they can pin something concrete on Cameron's dad (or anyone else for that matter) then they should come out with it. If they want to make firm allegations of wrong doing then that's fine. Otherwise it's no better than the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
    There were a few on here that entirely approved of the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
    Few is the operative word.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    This is weak stuff sorted far...it is like they haven't bothered the properly look through this stuff or we are going to get more.
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    LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    I still think Cruz will scrape WI but this is a fun poll.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-24201

    More seriously models show the Democrats struggling and likely to lose. Bear in mind the US economy has barely grown in the past 6 months and the forward looking indicators provide no solace. Oil ticking back up now too, not enough for high cost US oil mind.

    http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2016
    Wow was that it....I mean really...11.6 million records & you are telling us about some nobody & his 85k.

    What about the stories of all these dictators etc.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    This is weak stuff sorted far...it is like they haven't bothered the properly look through this stuff or we are going to get more.

    Or there's not much to it.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown :

    777 minutes
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    tlg86 said:

    I think it is deeply disrespectful showing the PM's late father constantly on the news. It must be very upsetting for the PM and his mother. Very cheap politics from The Guardian and BBC.

    I tend to agree. If they can pin something concrete on Cameron's dad (or anyone else for that matter) then they should come out with it. If they want to make firm allegations of wrong doing then that's fine. Otherwise it's no better than the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
    There were a few on here that entirely approved of the Mail's hatchet job on Ralph Miliband.
    And many of us, for all our dislike of Ed, made clear our distaste at using his father as a means to attack him.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown :

    777 minutes

    Presumably 777 is the Jackpot :)
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    EPG.. I have no problems with tax avoidance..The Guardian makes me laugh as it thrashes around in desperation..
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    tlg86 said:

    Guardian named the peers / donors...small beer. They must have more than this surely.

    Probably not. Time and again the BBC and Guardian go to press claiming to have something big and then have nothing. I remember when they claimed to have the smoking gun to bring down FIFA and that turned out to be nothing.
    The fact they have only got a 30min Panorama...you would have thought they could get an hour. The bumper at the start doesn't look like the programme will say much.
    Does Panorama have any evidence of something illegal having taken place?
This discussion has been closed.