politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump’s favourability ratings get worse there are now suggestions that he doesn’t want the nomination after all
There’s an interesting article by John Fund just out in National Review speculating that really Mr. Trump doesn’t want the nomination and what we are seeing at the moment is what it describes as “self-sabotage”. Fund observes:
Although I think the abortion blunder was a particularly serious one, I'm not sure that in general Trump's recent outrageous statements are any more outrageous than ones he's made all through the contest.
I don't normally re-post from a previous thread but I don't normally put up betting tips either. so this time I will: FPT
Tata's plan to reverse their inward direct investment (which we were all supposed to be so pleased about a few years ago) seems to have brought the fore several issues that our politicians have been trying to ignore or hide for a long time.
Running a massive current account deficit for years on end actually does matter. Politicians prancing about on the "world stage", and introducing policies so they can "lead" on climate change has real costs that are carried by ordinary people. Politicians trying to organise, for their own electoral prospects, feel good factors warps policy and leads to poor governance.
Then we have the crisis in public services. The word crisis is much over-used, but when it comes to health and education there is no other word that fits. Much of that is caused by the over-expansion of the size of the population without the commensurate investment in essential services, let alone long-term necessities like transport.
All of this has been bubbling away for years but now, possibly because the EU Referendum is focusing minds on essentials, it seems to coming to the boil. A fecking great crash is on the horizon, I think.
Politically, Labour ought to be steaming into the lead about now but, and forget Corbyn, they ain't because Labour have, for decades, been in favour of the issues that are driving this, possible, crash. Betting wise, I would, if I still thought I'd be around to collect, be putting money into the "angry" parties winning over the next ten years or so.
As it is the next time I pass the betting shop I'll try and get a bet on that George Osborne won't be Chancellor in six months time.
I don't normally re-post from a previous thread but I don't normally put up betting tips either. so this time I will: FPT
Tata's plan to reverse their inward direct investment (which we were all supposed to be so pleased about a few years ago) seems to have brought the fore several issues that our politicians have been trying to ignore or hide for a long time.
Running a massive current account deficit for years on end actually does matter. Politicians prancing about on the "world stage", and introducing policies so they can "lead" on climate change has real costs that are carried by ordinary people. Politicians trying to organise, for their own electoral prospects, feel good factors warps policy and leads to poor governance.
Then we have the crisis in public services. The word crisis is much over-used, but when it comes to health and education there is no other word that fits. Much of that is caused by the over-expansion of the size of the population without the commensurate investment in essential services, let alone long-term necessities like transport.
All of this has been bubbling away for years but now, possibly because the EU Referendum is focusing minds on essentials, it seems to coming to the boil. A fecking great crash is on the horizon, I think.
Politically, Labour ought to be steaming into the lead about now but, and forget Corbyn, they ain't because Labour have, for decades, been in favour of the issues that are driving this, possible, crash. Betting wise, I would, if I still thought I'd be around to collect, be putting money into the "angry" parties winning over the next ten years or so.
As it is the next time I pass the betting shop I'll try and get a bet on that George Osborne won't be Chancellor in six months time.
For the music to stop, a refusenik election victory is necessary. Like Trump or Brexit. The signs aren;t that promising.
Politically, Labour ought to be steaming into the lead about now but, and forget Corbyn, they ain't because Labour have, for decades, been in favour of the issues that are driving this, possible, crash. Betting wise, I would, if I still thought I'd be around to collect, be putting money into the "angry" parties winning over the next ten years or so.
We'll see. The media have for some time been portraying Corbyn as the bonkers outsider who favours outdated things like nationalisation and opposition to carefree globalisation. I think it'll be quite hard to portray him as part of the cosy Economist-style free trade consensus. Similarly, when the Iraq report finally staggers out, he'll be in a better position than most (including me, but also most front-benchers on both sides) if it's critical. He seems to me to be doing quite well over the steel issue in particular.
F1: second practice starts in about quarter of an hour. Got an inkling of a possible bet, but we'll see how things stack up. Things are a few hours later than usual in Bahrain, so the pre-qualifying piece will be in the early afternoon.
With the change, the only way Colorado Republican delegates would remain relevant is the remote chance that no candidate emerges as a clear winner in the primary contest. In this case, the state's unbound delegates would receive significant attention and may hold the key to victory in a floor fight.
Those graphs suggest shouldn't even be a contendah, let alone the leading contendah.
And yet he is.
Which is strange.
The graphs don't measure primary or caucus participation. Winning nominations is about either getting about a quarter to a third of those who'll turn out in your primary strongly behind you or being a strong enough second favourite to be able to knock off challengers with enough weak points. Overall popularity doesn't necessarily come into it.
"His entire political persona is built around a zero-compromise approach to far-right conservative politics, and his general election game plan is to win by mobilizing conservative voters who allegedly “stayed home” in 2012"
Change this to far-left and stay-at-home UK voters in 2015 and you have Corbyn's gameplan.
With the change, the only way Colorado Republican delegates would remain relevant is the remote chance that no candidate emerges as a clear winner in the primary contest. In this case, the state's unbound delegates would receive significant attention and may hold the key to victory in a floor fight.
Those graphs suggest shouldn't even be a contendah, let alone the leading contendah.
And yet he is.
Which is strange.
The graphs don't measure primary or caucus participation. Winning nominations is about either getting about a quarter to a third of those who'll turn out in your primary strongly behind you or being a strong enough second favourite to be able to knock off challengers with enough weak points. Overall popularity doesn't necessarily come into it.
Behold your Trump. Can there ever have been a bigger disconnect between US voters in Primaries and US voters in a potential election?
Politically, Labour ought to be steaming into the lead about now but, and forget Corbyn, they ain't because Labour have, for decades, been in favour of the issues that are driving this, possible, crash. Betting wise, I would, if I still thought I'd be around to collect, be putting money into the "angry" parties winning over the next ten years or so.
We'll see. The media have for some time been portraying Corbyn as the bonkers outsider who favours outdated things like nationalisation and opposition to carefree globalisation. I think it'll be quite hard to portray him as part of the cosy Economist-style free trade consensus. Similarly, when the Iraq report finally staggers out, he'll be in a better position than most (including me, but also most front-benchers on both sides) if it's critical. He seems to me to be doing quite well over the steel issue in particular.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
I think Trump needs to make a few boring conventional speeches at this point, as otherwise the perception will be that he turned out in the final stages to be much screwier than had been thought, so cheating him out of the nomination is the right thing to do. To be a proper victim he needs to look less mad.
All this reminds me of the wonderful play-by-email game Illuminati (an extrapolation of a simpler card game), in which you try to take over the world by influencing everyone from the environmentalists to the boy scouts by adjusting your image to fit them (and then changing once you've got them under your control). Image is measured by 9 different criteria, from conventional things like conservative/liberal to more exotic things like Weirdness, which will attract some groups and repel others. Trump needs to tone down the Weirdness a bit at this point.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
China has 21 times our population. It's overproduced too much for it's own good, let alone ours.
You see this is where it gets confusing, you say there's too much steel around yet people are saying we don't make enough. Tata, losing £1m a day, are the bad guys.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
China has 21 times our population. It's overproduced too much for it's own good, let alone ours.
You see this is where it gets confusing, you say there's too much steel around yet people are saying we don't make enough. Tata, losing £1m a day, are the bad guys.
Basket case.
I bet you their 'loss' includes depreciation and amortization.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
But the problem with mini mills is you can't make the highest grade steels. For that you need a blast furnace.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
But the problem with mini mills is you can't make the highest grade steels. For that you need a blast furnace.
Hmmmm: when I last met Nucor management, they were of the view that they covered more than 90% of the value spectrum. (Which is probably 99% of the volume.)
And, frankly, Port Talbot doesn't make the highest quality steels either.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
But the problem with mini mills is you can't make the highest grade steels. For that you need a blast furnace.
Hmmmm: when I last met Nucor management, they were of the view that they covered more than 90% of the value spectrum. (Which is probably 99% of the volume.)
And, frankly, Port Talbot doesn't make the highest quality steels either.
Of course it doesn't which is part of the problem, but the issue of mini mills is gaining access to high grade scrap which isn't so freely available, hence why a lot of it is made from new in blast furnaces.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
But the problem with mini mills is you can't make the highest grade steels. For that you need a blast furnace.
Hmmmm: when I last met Nucor management, they were of the view that they covered more than 90% of the value spectrum. (Which is probably 99% of the volume.)
And, frankly, Port Talbot doesn't make the highest quality steels either.
Of course it doesn't which is part of the problem, but the issue of mini mills is gaining access to high grade scrap which isn't so freely available, hence why a lot of it is made from new in blast furnaces.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
Why would I bet £50?
Look, we can't make steel as cheap as others, asking the govt to subsidise it is bonkers (I'm not suggesting that is your stance).
Corbyn and Nick Palmer seem to think nationalisation cures everything when actually its the opposite
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
But the problem with mini mills is you can't make the highest grade steels. For that you need a blast furnace.
Hmmmm: when I last met Nucor management, they were of the view that they covered more than 90% of the value spectrum. (Which is probably 99% of the volume.)
And, frankly, Port Talbot doesn't make the highest quality steels either.
Of course it doesn't which is part of the problem, but the issue of mini mills is gaining access to high grade scrap which isn't so freely available, hence why a lot of it is made from new in blast furnaces.
That would be higher grade. stainless sells at about 3 to 5 times the price of mild steel due to the addition of other metals such as chrome. It's also more difficult to produce.
Totally O/T, but according to the local news a Lancashire woman is spending £20k....K....on "marrying" her chihauhau bitch to it's sweetheart". The "groom" lives in Essex; they met a dog show three years ago and have kept in touch through FaceTime and at dog-shows. Got to be one of the biggest April 1st wind-ups ever..
Totally O/T, but according to the local news a Lancashire woman is spending £20k....K....on "marrying" her chihauhau bitch to it's sweetheart". The "groom" lives in Essex; they met a dog show three years ago and have kept in touch through FaceTime and at dog-shows. Got to be one of the biggest April 1st wind-ups ever..
People from Essex, they are weirdos.
I once watched a documentary about them. The Only Way Is Essex.
Corbyn and Nick Palmer seem to think nationalisation cures everything when actually its the opposite
I've not expressed an opinion! I'd need to know a lot more about the steel industry than I do to venture one. I merely observed that Corbyn's view seems closer to the public on this issue.
Totally O/T, but according to the local news a Lancashire woman is spending £20k....K....on "marrying" her chihauhau bitch to it's sweetheart". The "groom" lives in Essex; they met a dog show three years ago and have kept in touch through FaceTime and at dog-shows. Got to be one of the biggest April 1st wind-ups ever..
People from Essex, they are weirdos.
I once watched a documentary about them. The Only Way Is Essex.
Frightening.
Or, while I volunteered on the heritage railway to North Weald and Ongar, "The Only Way is Epping"
Vanadium is added to a few high value specialised steels, such as those used for tools. It is also sometimes used in concrete reinforcing steel, especially for use in buildings in earthquake zones. Bu bog standard steel contains no vanadium.
Totally O/T, but according to the local news a Lancashire woman is spending £20k....K....on "marrying" her chihauhau bitch to it's sweetheart". The "groom" lives in Essex; they met a dog show three years ago and have kept in touch through FaceTime and at dog-shows. Got to be one of the biggest April 1st wind-ups ever..
People from Essex, they are weirdos.
I once watched a documentary about them. The Only Way Is Essex.
Frightening.
It's a Lancashire woman who is apparentlyspending a small fortune or her bitch. Remember it's the "brides" family which pays for the wedding!
I rather fancy Corby sees what the public's views are perceived to be and then adopts them...much like his predecessor..in both cases they were usually quite wrong
A slightly random steel question: do they ever add vanadium?
Unbeknownst to medieval chaps, vanadium impurities in Syrian (Damascus) steel was what gave it superior properties to standard steel.
Thank you, Mr. Dancer, that is another five minutes of my life I will never get back. I couldn't remember Vanadium so I went off and googled it. As I result I now know that "German chemist Martin Henze discovered vanadium in the blood cells (or coelomic cells) of Ascidiacea (sea squirts) in 1911". Now, as penance for making me waste time and accepting yet another useless fact in to my memory (to join the millions already there) you are hereby condemned to watch the following video about the the periodic table ( and let that be a lesson to you):
Mr. Rich, but does the Libertarian Party have a shot at breaking the stranglehold the two big parties have?
I don't mean imminently, I mean over the next few elections.
Good question, and although I find it hard to be fully objective on the matter, the answer is probably no. But to an extent that is not necessarily the point, the point it to give exposer to and advocate for liberty, 'free minds and free markets' the individual ect... so that the other party's are inflowanced, and there have been some successes, e.g. the legalisation of gay marriage and legalisation of Pot in some states. admittedly this is not a lot in a sea of new regulation and ballooning government deficits, and a rise in nativism.
That sead if ever there was an opportunity, this year may be it, the libertarian party are going to have their debate tonight on TV, they have got on all 50 states ballots, (48 in 2012), they are tacking legal action (anti monopoly) to get in the Presidential debates, and perhaps most impotently, 'Trump' I could see a lot of former republican votes, being tempted by an ex republican governor, over Trump, and at least some young Sanders supporters, preferring to switch to somebody has been advocating for drug legalisation, over Hillary.
I may be wrong, but I wonder if there are odds on the Libertarian candidate gating over 10% ?
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
But the problem with mini mills is you can't make the highest grade steels. For that you need a blast furnace.
Hmmmm: when I last met Nucor management, they were of the view that they covered more than 90% of the value spectrum. (Which is probably 99% of the volume.)
And, frankly, Port Talbot doesn't make the highest quality steels either.
Of course it doesn't which is part of the problem, but the issue of mini mills is gaining access to high grade scrap which isn't so freely available, hence why a lot of it is made from new in blast furnaces.
Just before my dad retired, there was a large spike in the price of scrap - so much so one of his friendly dealers asked him if there were any demo contracts he could bring forwards. Allegedly the reason for the price rise was that there was a massive demand for scrap from China.
He also had a friendly retired metallurgist who was able to detect special non-ferrous alloys and metals - very handy when he came across a job lot of tantalum.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I rather fancy Corby sees what the public's views are perceived to be and then adopts them...much like his predecessor..in both cases they were usually quite wrong
Do not be ridiculous. Seriously. I don't know a politician anywhere who is less prone to adapt his expressed views to fit with public opinion. Even some of his keenest supporters would like him to do it a little bit more.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
Depends how generous you are, obv
A fiver for a Barony, perhaps a tenner for an Earldom (though sadly that doesn't confer membership of the Upper House these days)?
If Trump does win the nomination, then it could be the best result yet for the Libertarian Party. Which is some consolation.
For those that might be interested, there is going to be the first ever televised Libertarian Party debate tonight on Fox.
I thought Gary Johnson was 100% to win that gig, and 0% to subsequently get POTUS !
Gary Johnson, is the presumptive favourite, by a long way, especially considering he won the nomination last time, but there have not been any poling that I know off, in the 4 states that have voted so far he is ahead of his closest rival Austin Peterson, by 2 to 1, but the votes are non binding. I suspect that John MacAfee has more name recognition than most in miner party's candidates.
So far I have been watching the debates on YouTube, and I like all the candidates, Austin Peterson comes closest to my way of thinking, but Gary Johnson, probably cares more credibility with his list of life achievements, including being a governor for 2 terms of New Mexico.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
Depends how generous you are, obv
A fiver for a Barony, perhaps a tenner for an Earldom (though sadly that doesn't confer membership of the Upper House these days)?
I think you must be working off an out-of-date price list.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I think our peerages are dependent on how much we donate and if I stop with the George is crap threads.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
Depends how generous you are, obv
A fiver for a Barony, perhaps a tenner for an Earldom (though sadly that doesn't confer membership of the Upper House these days)?
I think you must be working off an out-of-date price list.
How do Trump's favourability figures compare against Hillary's?
Or Osborne's for that matter?
Last tracker I saw was Trump -31. Hilary -13.
Chasm.
-15, and moving in the wrong direction, just like her other polling too. Terrible numbers with men and historically horribly lopsided gender numbers in the primaries, rare when she breaches 40%.
Of course if favourables were the be all and end all then Carson and Sanders would be winning.
People not appreciating the importance of the Paul Manafort hire. If Trump comes up a little short he will do a deal, whether with Kasich or someone else.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I think our peerages are dependent on how much we donate and if I stop with the George is crap threads.
Anyway, we could do with some dosh FROM George and his mates to fight our all-out elections on May 5th. We have a fight on our hands to retain control. And if Elmbridge goes....well, forget about 2020.
NP Then why does he read out letters from Joe Public at PMQs..what is that but bandwaggon jumping..and Miliband would jump on any waggon that passed his front door..
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I think our peerages are dependent on how much we donate and if I stop with the George is crap threads.
Anyway, we could do with some dosh FROM George and his mates to fight our all-out elections on May 5th. We have a fight on our hands to retain control. And if Elmbridge goes....well, forget about 2020.
He's sending all the money to the Northern Powerhouse.
I'm so tempted to become Manchester's Directly Elected Mayor.
Apparently China has made more steel in the last 2 years than we have ever.
What a basket case we are.
Why does that surprise you?
We are 1% of world population. China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no methe uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
You see now we're talking. I'm going on Dragon's Den to invite them to invest in a steel plant, if they say no I'll ask the govt.
Basket case
I'll bet you 50 quid that a new steel plant will be built in the UK in the next five years, if you like.
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a myears ago.
But the problem with mini mills is you can't make the highest grade steels. For that you need a blast furnace.
Hmmmm: when I last met Nucor management, they were of the view that they covered more than 90% of the value spectrum. (Which is probably 99% of the volume.)
And, frankly, Port Talbot doesn't make the highest quality steels either.
Of course it doesn't which is part of the problem, but the issue of mini mills is gaining access to high grade scrap which isn't so freely available, hence why a lot of it is made from new in blast furnaces.
Just before my dad retired, there was a large spike in the price of scrap - so much so one of his friendly dealers asked him if there were any demo contracts he could bring forwards. Allegedly the reason for the price rise was that there was a massive demand for scrap from China.
He also had a friendly retired metallurgist who was able to detect special non-ferrous alloys and metals - very handy when he came across a job lot of tantalum.
Steel prices went mad in 2003-2005 and practically doubled. Steel scrap followed; at one point it was hitting £250-300 a tonne for prime sorted scrap. Today I get about £65-70 a tonne which is about £100 tonne less than 2 years ago and reflects the steep falls in steel prices.
NP Then why does he read out letters from Joe Public at PMQs..what is that but bandwaggon jumping..and Miliband would jump on any waggon that passed his front door..
Rofl. I invite you to find any of the people here who really, really dislike Corbyn and what he's doing (Southam Observer? Cyclefree?) to agree with you that he shamelessly changes his mind to pander to public opinion.
The letters are people who agree with him, rather than the other way round. You could I suppose criticise him for not reading out letters from people who disagree with him - the ultimate masochism strategy.
I'm calling bullshit on Trump being worried about getting 'savaged' by the Clintons. Bill Clinton is nothing in US power terms, George W Bush wiped his hand down Bill Clinton's shirt to get rid of poor people germs when they toured the Haiti wreckage together. Hillary is more of a tough old bird, but not to a degree of intimidating someone like Trump.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I think our peerages are dependent on how much we donate and if I stop with the George is crap threads.
Anyway, we could do with some dosh FROM George and his mates to fight our all-out elections on May 5th. We have a fight on our hands to retain control. And if Elmbridge goes....well, forget about 2020.
That can't be right. Many have repeatedly told us that a donkey wearing a blue rosette could lead the Tories to an assured victory in 2020. Are you begging to differ?
I'm calling bullshit on Trump being worried about getting 'savaged' by the Clintons. Bill Clinton is nothing in US power terms, George W Bush wiped his hand down Bill Clinton's shirt to get rid of poor people germs when they toured the Haiti wreckage together. Hillary is more of a tough old bird, but not to a degree of intimidating someone like Trump.
I'm calling bullshit on Trump being worried about getting 'savaged' by the Clintons. Bill Clinton is nothing in US power terms, George W Bush wiped his hand down Bill Clinton's shirt to get rid of poor people germs when they toured the Haiti wreckage together. Hillary is more of a tough old bird, but not to a degree of intimidating someone like Trump.
By the way, surely the only way to get a buyer for a priced out of the market steel company is to place an order for the overpriced steel in question. It's very socialistic, but there it is. My suggestion would be to build that bridge to Northern Ireland and tell the contracter to design for that steel specifically. At least there's an added economic benefit. Obviously someone more knowledgeable than I on engineering may tell me that won't work.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I think our peerages are dependent on how much we donate and if I stop with the George is crap threads.
Anyway, we could do with some dosh FROM George and his mates to fight our all-out elections on May 5th. We have a fight on our hands to retain control. And if Elmbridge goes....well, forget about 2020.
That can't be right. Many have repeatedly told us that a donkey wearing a blue rosette could lead the Tories to an assured victory in 2020. Are you begging to differ?
It must be all those Lib Dem winning here bar charts putting the frighteners on.
NP...You do a lot of ROTFL..it reminds me of the time when you were at a private function where a fellow MP..a Conservative,..made an off colour joke in his speech ...you immediately alerted the press..I asked if you would have reported a Labour MP if he had done the same at a private function..and you said you would..Sorry NP.. On that day you lost all credibility and thankfully your seat..even the constituents saw through that one ..
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I think our peerages are dependent on how much we donate and if I stop with the George is crap threads.
Anyway, we could do with some dosh FROM George and his mates to fight our all-out elections on May 5th. We have a fight on our hands to retain control. And if Elmbridge goes....well, forget about 2020.
That can't be right. Many have repeatedly told us that a donkey wearing a blue rosette could lead the Tories to an assured victory in 2020. Are you begging to differ?
I guess the infinite subtlety of my humour can occasionally inadvertantly mislead. In truth the prospect of defeat in Esher and Walton (Elmbridge) is not unduly alarming.
However, I am among the number that can envisage the Conservatives losing nationally in 2020, should the party revert to the good old days of nineties style self-immolation.
There have been suggestions he didn't want the nomination this whole time. Personally I thought it was like Corbyn - he didn't think he would get as far as he did, but when it became a real possibility he committed to it and now really wants it.
I rather fancy Corby sees what the public's views are perceived to be and then adopts them...much like his predecessor..in both cases they were usually quite wrong
Do not be ridiculous. Seriously. I don't know a politician anywhere who is less prone to adapt his expressed views to fit with public opinion. Even some of [Corbyn's] keenest supporters would like him to do it a little bit more.
Well, quite. Honestly, his touted inflexibility (or consistency if one likes it) is one of the things I dislike about Corbyn, but while I also don't think he is as revolutionary as some of his supporters think in style, he is different, and not adjusting his views is part of that.
Totally off topic, this story made me smile
Skimmed milk can be described as an "imitation milk product", a Florida judge has ruled - unless vitamins are added - in a long-running dispute
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
I think our peerages are dependent on how much we donate and if I stop with the George is crap threads.
Anyway, we could do with some dosh FROM George and his mates to fight our all-out elections on May 5th. We have a fight on our hands to retain control. And if Elmbridge goes....well, forget about 2020.
That can't be right. Many have repeatedly told us that a donkey wearing a blue rosette could lead the Tories to an assured victory in 2020. Are you begging to differ?
I certainly am. Far too much complacency from the Tories.
By the way, surely the only way to get a buyer for a priced out of the market steel company is to place an order for the overpriced steel in question. It's very socialistic, but there it is. My suggestion would be to build that bridge to Northern Ireland and tell the contracter to design for that steel specifically. At least there's an added economic benefit. Obviously someone more knowledgeable than I on engineering may tell me that won't work.
Agree with you.
I think the words 'socialism' and 'nationalise' have become so toxic that they aren't even in government rule books anymore (banks aside).
Personally, I'd nationalise the steel industry and its losses. I think the government would find it liberating to do so. And it wouldn't necessarily have to be for ever.
I'd fed up of uber capitalism and globalisation equating to the UK losing its whole manufacturing base, and I'm fed up of successive governments talking big and delivering bugger all.
March of the makers, my arse! Osborne has hit the steel industry with even more green taxes and sucked up to the Chinese as they have devastated the market.
Time to hit back in spectacular and surprising style, by nationalising the steel industry, putting forward a dramatic project built with UK steel (as you've suggested) and putting a big two fingers up to the globalisation vultures.
It might not be entirely financially sensible in the short term, but may well be socially and culturally magnificent in the long term.
By the way, surely the only way to get a buyer for a priced out of the market steel company is to place an order for the overpriced steel in question. It's very socialistic, but there it is. My suggestion would be to build that bridge to Northern Ireland and tell the contracter to design for that steel specifically. At least there's an added economic benefit. Obviously someone more knowledgeable than I on engineering may tell me that won't work.
I probably shouldn't do this but what the hell. I have heard a whisper that the rail for HS2 has already been purchased. From China.
Just received an email from Osborne asking for me for a donation for him to continue his brilliant stewardship of the economy.
Do you think that if it's just you and I who have received that very personal message (and I'm sure it is), then, well, could it just be, dare we hope, that our peerages may soon be next?
Depends how generous you are, obv
A fiver for a Barony, perhaps a tenner for an Earldom (though sadly that doesn't confer membership of the Upper House these days)?
I think you must be working off an out-of-date price list.
Comments
And yet he is.
Which is strange.
Trump is Brewster from Brewster's Millions.
He doesn't want to win, keeps on saying outrageous things so he has to quit, except all it does is boost his popularity.
Or Osborne's for that matter?
Trump wants it alright. Whether he'll get it is another matter.
so this time I will: FPT
Tata's plan to reverse their inward direct investment (which we were all supposed to be so pleased about a few years ago) seems to have brought the fore several issues that our politicians have been trying to ignore or hide for a long time.
Running a massive current account deficit for years on end actually does matter. Politicians prancing about on the "world stage", and introducing policies so they can "lead" on climate change has real costs that are carried by ordinary people. Politicians trying to organise, for their own electoral prospects, feel good factors warps policy and leads to poor governance.
Then we have the crisis in public services. The word crisis is much over-used, but when it comes to health and education there is no other word that fits. Much of that is caused by the over-expansion of the size of the population without the commensurate investment in essential services, let alone long-term necessities like transport.
All of this has been bubbling away for years but now, possibly because the EU Referendum is focusing minds on essentials, it seems to coming to the boil. A fecking great crash is on the horizon, I think.
Politically, Labour ought to be steaming into the lead about now but, and forget Corbyn, they ain't because Labour have, for decades, been in favour of the issues that are driving this, possible, crash. Betting wise, I would, if I still thought I'd be around to collect, be putting money into the "angry" parties winning over the next ten years or so.
As it is the next time I pass the betting shop I'll try and get a bet on that George Osborne won't be Chancellor in six months time.
The timeframe requires Cameron to axe him. That seems unlikely.
I do agree Osborne's goose is cooked.
The jobs report today showed that wage growth (finally!) may be starting to stir.
It'll have 28 delegates, all unbound to the convention.
If they go according to the online straw poll conducted:
http://www.inforum.com/news/3982984-nd-rep-cramers-straw-poll-sees-strong-support-trump
Then 12 should vote for Trump, 9 for Cruz, 6 for Marco, 1 for Kasich. Whether they do or not is another matter entirely !
Colorado comes back into play...
With the change, the only way Colorado Republican delegates would remain relevant is the remote chance that no candidate emerges as a clear winner in the primary contest. In this case, the state's unbound delegates would receive significant attention and may hold the key to victory in a floor fight.
37 unbound delegates
http://www.salon.com/2016/04/01/ted_cruz_is_no_savior_sorry_republicans_youre_probably_still_screwed_and_stuck_with_trump/
"His entire political persona is built around a zero-compromise approach to far-right conservative politics, and his general election game plan is to win by mobilizing conservative voters who allegedly “stayed home” in 2012"
Change this to far-left and stay-at-home UK voters in 2015 and you have Corbyn's gameplan.
http://time.com/4278295/donald-trump-loyalty-pledge-south-carolina-delegates/
Chasm.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/31/unbound-gop-delegates-picking-nominee/82430436/
57% of delegates decided in the Democratic primaries btw
75% for the GOP.
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/715897893186568192
What a basket case we are.
We are 1% of world population.
China produces half the world's steel. (And mines half the world's iron ore.)
As we have no meaningful indigenous iron ore deposits, and have no economic coal mines, we are never going to be a major player on the world steel stage. China, believe it or not, is moving back to being a coal exporter.
Of course, some of our energy policies have made things worse, but ultimately we have no competitive advantage in steel production. Political policy designed to make the uneconomic economic is doomed to failure.
All this reminds me of the wonderful play-by-email game Illuminati (an extrapolation of a simpler card game), in which you try to take over the world by influencing everyone from the environmentalists to the boy scouts by adjusting your image to fit them (and then changing once you've got them under your control). Image is measured by 9 different criteria, from conventional things like conservative/liberal to more exotic things like Weirdness, which will attract some groups and repel others. Trump needs to tone down the Weirdness a bit at this point.
http://www.flyingbuffalo.com/illumin.htm
Basket case.
Basket case
It'll be a mini-mill, built next to a modern CCGT, based around an arc furnace, and using recycled steel as its feedstock, but it'll be built. Compared to Port Talbot, it'll need one-fifth the number of employees per tonne of rolled steel, and will have lower energy costs too.
The problem with Port Talbot - and all big, old, integrated plants - is that it is cheaper to start anew than to modernise what was built 70 years ago.
And, frankly, Port Talbot doesn't make the highest quality steels either.
For those that might be interested, there is going to be the first ever televised Libertarian Party debate tonight on Fox.
I don't mean imminently, I mean over the next few elections.
Look, we can't make steel as cheap as others, asking the govt to subsidise it is bonkers (I'm not suggesting that is your stance).
Corbyn and Nick Palmer seem to think nationalisation cures everything when actually its the opposite
The "groom" lives in Essex; they met a dog show three years ago and have kept in touch through FaceTime and at dog-shows.
Got to be one of the biggest April 1st wind-ups ever..
Unbeknownst to medieval chaps, vanadium impurities in Syrian (Damascus) steel was what gave it superior properties to standard steel.
I once watched a documentary about them. The Only Way Is Essex.
Frightening.
PalpatineOsborne is evil!Vanadium is added to a few high value specialised steels, such as those used for tools. It is also sometimes used in concrete reinforcing steel, especially for use in buildings in earthquake zones. Bu bog standard steel contains no vanadium.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGM-wSKFBpo
That sead if ever there was an opportunity, this year may be it, the libertarian party are going to have their debate tonight on TV, they have got on all 50 states ballots, (48 in 2012), they are tacking legal action (anti monopoly) to get in the Presidential debates, and perhaps most impotently, 'Trump' I could see a lot of former republican votes, being tempted by an ex republican governor, over Trump, and at least some young Sanders supporters, preferring to switch to somebody has been advocating for drug legalisation, over Hillary.
I may be wrong, but I wonder if there are odds on the Libertarian candidate gating over 10% ?
He also had a friendly retired metallurgist who was able to detect special non-ferrous alloys and metals - very handy when he came across a job lot of tantalum.
Just found this video for you to watch as well, better I think that the Lehrer's effort and more up to date.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgVQKCcfwnU&ebc=ANyPxKquS-mgv9bFmD6OesNK6DYNYdWXi3NNQEeLDdtyB_V8CZWT-h_2cAiW2bxTukno6Hq5YiLtbN7FrFwiN_Gl-lpNhFTWfw
If you watch both, excellent my revenge is complete.
So far I have been watching the debates on YouTube, and I like all the candidates, Austin Peterson comes closest to my way of thinking, but Gary Johnson, probably cares more credibility with his list of life achievements, including being a governor for 2 terms of New Mexico.
Of course if favourables were the be all and end all then Carson and Sanders would be winning.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/01/delegate_hunter_manafort_brings_savvy_to_trump_camp_130167.html
People not appreciating the importance of the Paul Manafort hire. If Trump comes up a little short he will do a deal, whether with Kasich or someone else.
I'm so tempted to become Manchester's Directly Elected Mayor.
So much power.
Mr. Llama, I shall watch the video, but as I have, for reasons we needn't get into, memorised the 118 elements I doubt it'll prove a hardship
The letters are people who agree with him, rather than the other way round. You could I suppose criticise him for not reading out letters from people who disagree with him - the ultimate masochism strategy.
http://twitchy.com/2016/01/27/gop-consultant-cheri-jacobus-unloads-on-trump-corey-lewandowski-and-fox-news/
Ignore.
However, I am among the number that can envisage the Conservatives losing nationally in 2020, should the party revert to the good old days of nineties style self-immolation.
Totally off topic, this story made me smile
Skimmed milk can be described as an "imitation milk product", a Florida judge has ruled - unless vitamins are added - in a long-running dispute
https://consumerist.com/2016/03/31/court-agrees-with-florida-skim-milk-is-imitation-milk-product-unless-you-add-vitamins/
I think the words 'socialism' and 'nationalise' have become so toxic that they aren't even in government rule books anymore (banks aside).
Personally, I'd nationalise the steel industry and its losses. I think the government would find it liberating to do so. And it wouldn't necessarily have to be for ever.
I'd fed up of uber capitalism and globalisation equating to the UK losing its whole manufacturing base, and I'm fed up of successive governments talking big and delivering bugger all.
March of the makers, my arse! Osborne has hit the steel industry with even more green taxes and sucked up to the Chinese as they have devastated the market.
Time to hit back in spectacular and surprising style, by nationalising the steel industry, putting forward a dramatic project built with UK steel (as you've suggested) and putting a big two fingers up to the globalisation vultures.
It might not be entirely financially sensible in the short term, but may well be socially and culturally magnificent in the long term.