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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why from an ad man’s perspective REMAIN’s absolutely right
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why from an ad man’s perspective REMAIN’s absolutely right to go negative
The multinational Procter and Gamble has long been considered the most effective advertiser in the world. They had one simple formula which they used throughout their product range. They began their ads by showing a problem which was followed by a demonstration of how and why their product was the most effective way of dealing with it.
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In contrast, in 2015 Omar Sharif died and 2014 Shirley Temple, but I would think they were a big deal before many of those deciding what to push in the news were really in the biz.
Just looking at who died in 2014 and 2015, some massive names passed away. Hoskins, Attenborough, Robin Williams, Lauren Bacall
Cheers Roger, a surprisingly instructive and witty thread.
Agree with Roger - as the Duke of Wellington said of Waterloo Hard pounding this, gentlemen; let's see who will pound longest. REMAIN are out of the gate first, to mix metaphors. The challenge LEAVE have is that some of their key figures (Farage) are only trusted by 'true believers' while others are much more sceptical......
To return to Waterloo, will Corbyn be Cameron's Blucher?
....years later on Blue Peter (or similar program) a kid was asked how he kept his show birds looking so spotless "Me dad washes them in Daz" Embarrassed presenter "You mean he gently dabs a solution on their feathers?" "No, he fills a bucket and sticks them in"......
Oh - and good morning to fellow insomniac PB'ers everywhere!
It is hard to sell the EU as an evil dystopia as it plainly is not. Sure there are grumbles about decisions made in Brussels, but the grumbles are also to be found at all other tiers of government. Councils, Westminster, devolved assemblies - the lot. Indeed mostly people are very unhappy about decisions made at these other tiers (planning permission for councils, failure to back British Manufacturing, imposition of disastrous NHS policies etc)
The first rules of sales are to know the product and to believe in the product. Leave cannot even agree what the product is!
Good thread roger.
Too early to rise, too late to doze off again...
This is why, even after a Remain win, the problem will not go away and this will continue to be an issue for the foreseeable future.
People complain about governments at all levels. My junior colleagues are furious over the new contract, my neighbours are furious about some housing developments planned by the council, etc etc. I am yet to meet anyone who is furious over an EU issue.
Indeed our government has decided to exploit peoples dislike of local government (despite it being democratic) and place schools under control of self replicating oligarchies.
Even as someone who intends to vote for REMAIN, I do feel that the positive arguments it has at its disposal is limited. In that sense, I don't blame them for going negative. It's difficult to sell the EU as a democratic, well-working, successful institution.
3 hours 3 minutes 3 seconds
And we do have some say in the EU. Our government refused to support anti-dumping tarriffs on Chinese steel for example just recently.
There is no chance the EU will act in a similar way. Any vote for Remain will be taken as a clear sign of support for the EU project and for an acceleration of plans for a closer Union. Put simply, the EU do not respect the views of the people.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/01/exclusive-royal-family-considering-dramatic-brexit-intervention
You also seem to travel in very refined circles if you have never met anyone who gets angry about the EU. I suspect you live very much within your own comfort zone - as most of us do.
I don't deny that we don't have some say. I've read bits here and there over the last several weeks regarding the pro's and cons of being in the EU, and I am still left wondering just how much of say we have in the EU.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the First of April ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :
Should The United Kingdom Remain A Large Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?
Remain 01% .. Leave 04% .. Undecided 95%
Turnout Projection 01.04.16%
......................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE4EU - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors For European Union
If they really believed in democracy they would not do so.
I mix with a pretty varied bunch socially, and probably work more with EU migrants more than most (we actively recruit in the EU, indeed our Medical Director is off to Greece recruiting shortly to try to plug the gaps in the medical rotas in August caused by Hunts mishandling of the Juniors contract). Not only do they integrate well they are made very welcome by native staff and patients. I am yet to hear a patient complain about our Greek doctors or Iberian nurses. Indeed they are mostly very charmed by them.
People get angry when political decisions affect them personally and are otherwise largely indifferent. The anger over planning, of cuts to disability, or the closure of Port Talbot for example. The EU is too airy-fairy for the vast majority of people. It does not bother them.
It remains to be seen if 50% even bother to vote on the issue, let alone vote to leave, though Jacks 16% turnout projection does seem unduly pessimistic.
There are clearly some very heated views on the subject here and other places below the line. I encounter very few people with strong feelings on the subject in the solid world as opposed to the virtual one.
A general election is a choice between two governments, so knocking the opposition makes you a better alternative. And it's not a permanent choice.
The referendum is a binary choice, yes, but it shouldn't just be seen as "X is worse therefore I will vote to do Y". The problem is that, if you do that, you end up with a dissatisfied population when they realise that nothing much has changed.
A purely negative campaign may win the vote for Remain, but it won't end up binding the people into a shared vision for Europe. The best they can hope for from this strategy is grudging acquiescence - arguably the worst of all results.
It's a classic case of politicians doing what is best for themselves personally rather than what is best for the country
Maybe that'll be the next line by Project Terror.
Grudging acquiesence is the best either camp can hope for.
Whst is best for the country is a subjective opinion. I'd say those politicians in the Leave camp will promise anything to get a Leave vote because it suits their personal ambitions and agendas.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/revealed_free_movement_of_criminals_is_a_risk_to_our_security
From the point of view of a dedicated Leaver, does that matter? If we leave the EU and Remain’s Ten Plagues, or even some of them, do materialise,then it will have been the EU’s fault anyway. And “plucky little Britain” will fight against adversity..
Or something like that.
The turnout figures will be interesting. If 66% of the electorate voted at the 2015 GE, and the EU referendum gets 55%, then it shows a large proportion of the electorate are 'bothered' enough about the EU, either way, to vote.
If remain gets 55%, then it will (I think!) get a large number of voters than voted for the Conservatives in 2015 (36.9% of 66.1%). Likewise for leave - it'd be about the same as the Conservative GE share from head-maths. You can choose to swap those positions.
Hence such a strong vote either way could be seen as a more valid mandate than the government's.
This leads to a complete scattergun of slogans that appeal to the Already Decided, and the rest just feel bombarded by context free claims that rise up like a twitter hashtag and are gone within hours never to be repeated. Very EdM.
Hence we get Remain starting with security [a big card to play] and ending up a few weeks later talking about premiership footballers or roaming phone charges. And visiting every space inbetween. Now creating fear in the minds of football fans may be a tactic worth pursuing - however, by making everything a potential crisis - it devalues the whole point of *scary*.
Leave is equally all over the place - IMO because it's not structured either and isn't setting the agenda often enough. Rebuttal is occupying too much airtime. Now that's a consequence of several factors, but hopefully the selection of a single lead organisation will iron much of that out. The Tata crisis is a total gift - Leave aren't capitalising on it enough - talking about the wider context/being a symptom for other businesses etc.
As a PR person, I think there's a lot of opportunity for both sides to up their game in the media, ruining your credibility with hyperbole doesn't do anyone any good.
(Actually, Scotland probably could, more easily than UK could return to the EU!)
"I'm launching a petition, it's that serious..." to recall Parliament, and the petition won't be reviewed until after Parliament is back in session anyhow.
17% of voters disgruntled (assuming a marginal victory for leave) - but probably 10% of the population - is a larger number than ideal, but manageable in a democratic society
The EEA/EFTA option will be seen as an attempt to stay in the EU in all but name and a betrayal of democracy. It would destroy the Conservative party, and perhaps even rejuvenenate the kipper dead parrot.
But they're noisy. When it comes to any negotiations they'll be screeching: "We were promised an end to immigration!" or somesuch. The EEA'ers are much quieter in comparison.
It's where leave's lie will come undone. But leave know they won't be at the receiving end of the flack for their deception.
But nationalism still existed so, they soft-pedalled the union bit. Why are we discussing trade deals and political union still as the goal? There's no reason why we can't have enhanced trade without political union, yet no one wants to talk about it.
In advertising terms, the conversation is going like this ... "I'd like a basic car to provide me with transport."
Salesman ... "We have a top of the range, gas-guzzling luxury car which will also provide other services."
"I don't want the other services."
"They came as a package - you have no choice."
An interesting marketing strategy.
So Remain is claiming ... "If you don't keep this car, you will have to walk, you'll be caught in a thunderstorm and die of exposure."
This is not a binary choice. The third option is a throughly negative one towards the whole issue.
Negative campaigning may win the referendum (which for some people is all that matters). But, as Roger says, the negativity sticks.
The result could be a growth (increased growth?) of anarchist sentiment. In its strongest form, this is very destructive indeed.
Is this what Caameron, Farage & Co want to bring about?
“at least as far reaching as those under The Treaty of Rome. Britain has for generations thought of herself as a power that was different in kind. Proudly so. It is this sense of distinctiveness that (the antis) play upon when they promise ‘independence’ by return of post. But their prospectus ignores the fact that almost every major nation has been obliged…to pool significant areas of sovereignty so as to create more effective political units.”
Mrs Thatcher in 1975 as quoted here,:
http://infacts.org/maggies-1975-pro-europe-case-remains-strong-today/
We don't have many politicians that speak so clearly nowadays.
The Leave campaign is seeking to leave the EU. Supporters will get that if they win
The shape of the long-term relationship - as an agreement between sovereign entities - is up to the government of the day. People who want to stop immigration are free to campaign for that while those who membership of EEA/EFTA can argue for that. Whoever wins that argument, wins that argument - and if those who disagree manage to win a majority of the house of commons then they can change that policy.
The future of the Conservative Party is irrelevant.
But 5 years of bad government and problems for a political party are much less significant than a lack of popular buy-in to a fundamental question of our governance and role in the world
There's not really much to reconcile here - those who like being in this one as it suits their personality and personal circumstances aren't thinking the same way as those who feel stifled.
That's why I totally disagree with those who like to get all patronising on either side. The insight required to appeal to the genuine WTF Should I Do segment is in short supply all round.
All the polling shows that Leave is driven by anti-immigration feeling. It will be politically impossible to retain the 4 freedoms even if they were on offer, and I am not sure that they will be.
I agree with Mr. Roger, up to a point. Negative is fine, but overblown negative diminishes credibility, and that then affects how seriously more sensible negative arguments are taken. Both sides are guilty of hyperbole and a lot of people seem to be feeling bewildered, and with little trust in either side.
In more exciting news, The Adventures of Sir Edric is now available to buy. Huzzah!:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK/
At the moment it's the frankly disgraceful price of 99p, but it's going to go up in coming weeks (hope is the lower price will help spur early sales, get more reviews, etc).
Do give check the sample and see if it's your cup of tea.
As such both campaigns are inherently negative. Neither speaks to me.
Perhaps the car analogy can be stretched too far, but when I buy one I don't feel the need to pay for a chauffeur too.
"But without a chauffeur, you might get lost. And you're not an experienced driver are you?"
i was never a Maggie fan, but I've no problem with Remainers who want union on more levels. It's a perfectly respectable opinion. Just not mine.
I live in an area where UKIP are pretty popular and at the last locals - my ward ended up split Tory/Kipper.
The constant attempt on here to claim that Leave = end of immigration flies in the face of the vote. Many Leavers do want to curb immigration. If they vote Leave they've a chance to achieve that or at least be a great deal choosier about who we admit/deport - Remain isn't offering it at all.
Does anyone have a link?
44 minutes 44 seconds
Have I been in a coma and woken up to a Corbyn government?!
Today's the day.
If you wield 100% of the power, because you won 50% of the seats, on 37% of the vote and just 24% of the electorate, you should govern with consensus in mind. You are not popular.
Exclusive Just4EU .... change is in the air ....
It's not as if they don't have a track record for it ...