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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first post budget electoral tests: There CON Local By-

SystemSystem Posts: 12,267
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first post budget electoral tests: There CON Local By-Election defences

Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative majority of 39)
Result of ward at last election (2015):

Read the full story here


Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710585891090272256
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710585041961787392
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    Sugar tax wheeze has gone down like a 4l a day full sugar coke guzzler who falls overboard...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Tories less popular than Corbyns Labour.

    That's pretty bad. But.

    The Lib Dem are at 6. Could they lose seats next time?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sugar tax wheeze has gone down well....

    Omnishambles well.

    A Budget tailored to make the government popular in order for Remain to win, backfires badly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710585041961787392

    Finally! It was getting to the point some were wondering if Lab would ever have a lead during this parliament, remarkable though that would have been even for a crap opposition.

    All it needed was the first salvoes in a Tory civil war - hardly ideal, but perhaps the future is brightening for the comrades? Not that the future will be light, but the gloom may not be so pervasive for a short time at least.

    Oh, and Osborne is doomed. Sudden economic upturn is all that will repair his reputation, and since we're told that's dependent on worldwide outcomes he has no impact upon, that seems unlikely.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587055861006338
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    Tonights YG JICIPM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587414524379136
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587055861006338

    So what exactly in the budget was seen as unfair? He kicked all the tough decision down the road and increased personal tax threshold....

    Dave Gorman's take down of the YouGov panelist is worth a second watch...all those Nazi's Dec fans vs the Maoist Ant fans...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    Pllease make George leader after Dave

    Pretty please
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited March 2016
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG JICIPM

    Oh god - not this again. Did the pain of 2015 not teach you anything?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587813461434368
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    It's Hat Eating time.

    Me first.

    "As I said since the summer, the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn wont gain but wont lose a single vote, because he is to polarizing, so Labour will never lead in the polls but never fall bellow."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTjJKQzoZek

    I'm now going to get a specially made hat to eat.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587055861006338

    So what exactly in the budget was seen as unfair? He kicked all the tough decision down the road and increased personal tax threshold....

    Dave Gorman's take down of the YouGov panelist is worth a second watch...all those Nazi's Dec fans vs the Maoist Ant fans...
    Clue - £4bn cuts to disabled benefits to pay for a Corporation Tax cut et al
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    I hope Corbynistas go absolutely nuts over this poll - no way to know how long it will continue, and even if it is fleeting, or still not good enough, they haven't had much in the way of evidence to be enthused about, so they deserve this.
    Jonathan said:

    Tories less popular than Corbyns Labour.

    That's pretty bad. But.

    The Lib Dem are at 6. Could they lose seats next time?

    With the boundary changes as well, quite possibly I'd have thought. When will there recovery come? What would cause it? Surely only a proper Labour implosion, but that seems unlikely - either Labour struggles through to a loss but still with millions and millions of votes, or they actually win, neither of which option helps the LDs.

    And a UKIP GAIN in the locals I see, what madness is this? Oh I see, it was in 2013. Thought that looked odd.

    Surprised there are any Tories up Redcar and Cleveland way to be honest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Reading the entrails of The Times article it appears the voters see the budget as bad for them, and it is causing economic pessimism
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    LD surge?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587055861006338

    Yeh - I thought the sugar tax would be popular.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    edited March 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587414524379136

    I'm not sure how I'd answer that question - I like the idea of it, I just think he;s too incompetent to actually do it, so I might say I think 'his' deficit reduction is bad I guess.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    edited March 2016
    Mortimer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG JICIPM

    Oh god - not this again. Did the pain of 2015 not teach you anything?
    No!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the entrails of The Times article it appears the voters see the budget as bad for them, and it is causing economic pessimism

    You mean they realise Osborne's running out of road because he did sod all for the real economy ? You heard it hear first.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,267
    Those German 'comedians' have been at it again https://www.rt.com/uk/335995-german-comedians-britain-brexit/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    bigjohnowls said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587055861006338

    So what exactly in the budget was seen as unfair? He kicked all the tough decision down the road and increased personal tax threshold....

    Dave Gorman's take down of the YouGov panelist is worth a second watch...all those Nazi's Dec fans vs the Maoist Ant fans...
    Clue - £4bn cuts to disabled benefits to pay for a Corporation Tax cut et al
    I doubt it is that...TSE confirms, it seems like people are convinced they themselves are getting screwed by this budget...which just shows you people aren't actually reacting to what is in the budget.

    Past 6 years been several budgets that have shafted people and they didn't seem to notice and then when they aren't, they convinced they have been.

    But then YouGov panel also seem to think Ant and Dec are radically different...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    bigjohnowls said:

    Mortimer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG JICIPM

    Oh god - not this again. Did the pain of 2015 not teach you anything?
    No!
    Good for you - life's too short to be learning things, I always say. I think I'll go back to predicting a Labour majority, I'm bound to be right sooner or later.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

    (again)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    SeanT said:

    This is also, of course, a terrrrrrrible poll for Labour, as it scuppers any plans to unseat Corbyn.

    He can now point to a polling lead.

    lol. There is, as they say, nothing for everyone in this poll.

    "nothing for everyone"

    excellent Mr T
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    SeanT said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pllease make George leader after Dave

    Pretty please

    Osborne's chances of leading are dwindling to zero.

    It's gonna be Boris.
    Bojo has lost his mojo.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STJamesl: Of course Ed Miliband was 10 points clear at this point... #PartyPooper
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG JICIPM

    YES! We're back ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the entrails of The Times article it appears the voters see the budget as bad for them, and it is causing economic pessimism

    A great Remain budget then.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Scott_P said:

    @STJamesl: Of course Ed Miliband was 10 points clear at this point... #PartyPooper

    Not with ICM.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,020
    Can't wait to read an explanation of why this is in fact a sign of how right Dave is on the EU and George on the economy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    bigjohnowls said:

    Mortimer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG JICIPM

    Oh god - not this again. Did the pain of 2015 not teach you anything?
    No!
    BJOWNCFTNPM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    edited March 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710587055861006338

    So what exactly in the budget was seen as unfair? He kicked all the tough decision down the road and increased personal tax threshold....

    Dave Gorman's take down of the YouGov panelist is worth a second watch...all those Nazi's Dec fans vs the Maoist Ant fans...
    Clue - £4bn cuts to disabled benefits to pay for a Corporation Tax cut et al
    I doubt it is that...TSE confirms, it seems like people are convinced they themselves are getting screwed by this budget...which just shows you people aren't actually reacting to what is in the budget.

    Past 6 years been several budgets that have shafted people and they didn't seem to notice and then when they aren't, they convinced they have been.
    People probably just run several years behind events - after all, people don't know how good they have got it till it's gone, as they say. Sometimes they don't know how bad they have had it either.

    In all honesty though without the negativity being thrown around over the EU business, he might have scraped through again, but the leaders seem damaged, their party divided and angry, so admission of failure on economic targets and the cumulative weight of the cuts narrative for years has probably found a more fertile audience than in previous years.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    TheScreamingEagles said:
    Reading the entrails of The Times article it appears the voters see the budget as bad for them, and it is causing economic pessimism

    That made me think there ought to be an adjective "haruspicatory", but Google wouldn't even let me press a search for it.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    In fact, completely off topic, what is the adjective for topiary? topiarish?
    I think I need sleep.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    glw said:

    Can't wait to read an explanation of why this is in fact a sign of how right Dave is on the EU and George on the economy.

    Voters see GO as not as partisan as they would like him to be in favour of the EU ?

    All this was predicted when Dave and Gids stuck 2 fingers up to the voters that put them in Downing St.
This discussion has been closed.