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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump
Let’s talk brokered conventions, always a topic to set the pulses of political anoraks racing. We can deal with the Democrats briefly. Bernie might take Hillary all the way to the convention but if he does, he’ll lose just as she did against Obama eight years ago.
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Bank Holiday weekend ... we get Commonwealth Day off here on Monday!
I agree with you David, yet the strange thing is that the likes of Kasich simply refuse to go away and accept that it's all over bar the shouting.
Having weakened on Betfair from 10/1 out to around 18/1, he's back into 11/1 this morning. Is it simply a case of fools throwing their money at how they wished it could all have been?
I do hope our campaigns don't become as unedifying as those in the US, but fear it's inevitable. Personality politics is here to stay, reading this site its actually the anoraks feeding it. People on here are always shooting or praising the messenger not the message.
Cruz has had his one time Texas boost, Rubio is losing his home state.
I agree, Trump is all but home and hosed.
I'd put the campaigns of groups such as UKUncut in that category.
If you want to look at more serious violence, you can start with the terrorist links of some Animal Rights people, and the remainder of the movement who deny it, or Antifas, or relatively mainstream people defending those who attacked Prince Charles/Camilla in their car, or put forward political justifications for the "riots" a couple of years ago, or Green people trying to close down electricity supplies.
Or indeed the dodgy links of Mr Livingstone, Ms Abbott, Mr Corbyn and Mr McDonnell.
It is where we are. I'm sure that others will point to different examples from different viewpoints.
I agree that the complaint is persnickety and seems trivial, and may be simple trolling. And that it will be jumped on to build a narrative (see "Hands Up Don't Shoot").
However she is a reporter for Breitbart News. What is their point?
Politics seems to have been quite odd for a while now. I wonder if that will continue in France...
@Maomentum_: My 6 votes in the leadership election cost me £18, and all I get is this sell out to capitalist parasite shit?
https://twitter.com/Anthony_Rocca/status/708545041447264256
Kasich's best route to the nomination is a rapid withdrawal / collapse in support for one of the front-runners - preferably Trump - allowing him to start winning states in his own right. But there's little reason to expect that now when Trump's been a known quantity for eight months and looks now to be playing relatively safe now by his standards.
Anyhow enough of that, hows your new book going and when do I get a copy?
Overnight polling from Missouri as requested by @RodCrosby
Missouri - Fort Hays St Uni
Trump 36 .. Cruz 29 .. Rubio 9 .. Kasich 8
Clinton 47 .. Sanders 40
But, why? Nearly all the other potential candidates of both parties have had political experience, or have a long record of political ambition. Not the Donald.
It is not because he has strong political beliefs, or if he has, he's managed to keep them well hidden. The money for the job is not that good compared with what he is getting now, dealing with the ego's of the beltway politicians is mind boggling boring and infuriating in equal measure, while dealing with an antagonistic Senate and Congress can easily lead to suicidal thoughts.
The business games he has played in the past will be like baby toys compared to the actual lethal games political foes and leaderships around the world will be lining up to play with him.
So, why? I could be cynical, like a lot of people in the US, and say that he is acting as a blind for Clinton in destroying the Republican candidates, but I won't.
Why Trump’s rivals can’t catch him http://politi.co/1RFaWL3
Which agrees in the main with all that David Herdson has written this morning.
The demographics,however,mean he cannot win.There's simply not enough KKK supporting white supremacists in the USA.
Historian makes comparison with Mussolini rather than Hitler.
http://www.salon.com/2016/03/11/trumps_not_hitler_hes_mussolini_how_gop_anti_intellectualism_created_a_modern_fascist_movement_in_america/
Labour Party austerity donations cutbacks - I blame George Osborne.
But why do it? I suspect there might be an element of wanting to do something for his country but mainly, it's the mother of all ego-trips - and if there's one thing Trump isn't short of, it's ego. After all, who remembers businessmen fifty years hence? Al presidents, good bad and indifferent, are built into immortality via the history books. It's the modern equivalent of making Roman emperors gods on their death.
That and the e-book will be released on 31 March, with the paperback to come a little later [no pre-order just yet for the e-book].
http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/03/breitbart-michelle-fields-video-220631
However with the appalling crisis in the US with obesity might I suggest you not refer to American plonkers as "turkeys" as this is a lean meat, but that donuts might be more apposite?
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153597545074247&set=a.10150593017259247.407195.559514246&type=3
Surely turnips fit the bill better? Large amounts of fibre and very few calories. It would take a determined porker to get fat on these.
And for Mr G, the added bonus of describing his political opponents in a cerebral manner (or non-cerebral if you like).
The magic money tree.
This is interesting if it actually takes place.
Lets see if the latter hoses £billions more of our cash in face saving 'Operation Hinkley Point'.
On phablet so cannae link but the lead article in this week's t'Economist was obviously written by a "head-banger". Anti-frank might get the metaphor; given HB's 'Nighthawk' efforts I would expect the following....
:Whoosh:
I remember the mindset from the late sixties. The more trouble we cause, the more we will get our way because the watchers will see the justice of our cause and flock to our banner. The same reasoning that encourages no-platforming, safe spaces and calling speech 'free' only if they agree with it.
Sorry lads (and ladesses), it just looks like a scene from 'Lord of the Flies' . And 'Piggy' Trump gains. But, hey, you feel noble and better about yourself.
It won't happen because one of them, almost certainly Trump, will be nominated. But one of the reasons why one of them will be nominated is the threat that such a ticket would pose and the risk of it happening were there to be a stitch up.
There's been speculation about Trump bolting the convention if his mandate is denied but why would that apply any the less to Cruz? Sure, running-mate isn't that great a prize and he'd have to leave the Republican Party so there might be an effort to stop him running for re-election in Texas under the GOP in 2018 should Trump-Cruz lose (which they would) but he might well win there as an independent too, or he strength in his state might be enough for him to continue as a caucusing Republican anyway.
Nor should we get too carried away with any bad blood between the two. They worked together at the start because it was in their interests to do so (as events have proven); they could work together again should the need so determine.
None of which is to say it will happen but those thinking of ways in which the establishment might try to stitch up the nomination for, say, Kasich need to think about what the reaction would be from those passed over.
Conservatives ahead of Labour in Scotland. Albeit in 'tallest dwarf' style competition https://t.co/zdEwvUpNVZ
It strikes me that an anti-Trump convention carve-up will only be possible if Cruz supports it. Without that you are giving the middle finger to basically everyone that has voted.
I expect that Cruz (and many others) will be wary of getting involved in something that will, quite probably, become notorious. He's young. Why damage his future viability?
It's a different matter if Cruz himself is the beneficiary. That's a prize of infinite worth - his party's nomination in an open year.
So, I think that a stitch-up in favour of Rubio, Kasich, Ryan, Romney etc has to be done over the protests of both Trump and Cruz and anyone who hopes to be a candidate in the future.
The control and censorship of reporting regarding serious crimes by those claiming to be refugees is deeply concerning.
Cameron's been very good on the migrant crisis.
http://polho.me/1UnixCO
Call me Dave, is now pulling up the drawbridge in more effort to avoid a Brexit.
" House" will resound far and wide.
"Has Braless Albanian Newsreader had a Boob Job?"
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/651217/Braless-newsreader-boob-job-claims?utm_source=traffic.outbrain&utm_medium=traffic.outbrain&utm_term=traffic.outbrain&utm_content=traffic.outbrain&utm_campaign=traffic.outbrain
Sir Dirty Politics @HouseOfTraitors 1h1 hour ago
++ BREAKING ++. Immigration Figures
Noises from civil service indicate over 3 MILLION immigrants have not been recorded.
Mr. F, that's a disgusting comment from the Swedish politician.
Back in 2011 my view was seen as somewhat eccentric, now it's becoming the PB consensus. I'm just sitting back enjoying the popcorn.
The samples for those were 208 (GOP) and 145 (Dems). Joke really, sounds like it's someones's Pol Sci 101 term project. Still it's all we've got
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/12/george-osborne-driverless-car-trials-budget
Name five recent violent right wing protests in the UK.
I know which I'd find easy.
Turnout at European Parliament elections by country. UK has always been low, but now elsewhere too (HT @paul1kirby) https://t.co/WVptcU1pxm
I previously listed Rubio as having a majority in one state. He doesn't. He has a plurality of delegates in Minnesota (17 out of 38) but not a majority in the American sense i.e. more than everyone else put together. His only majority is in Puerto Rico: a territory, not a state.
"The trouble with you guys is that the loathing of Osborne is so deep seated , you cannot consider or post about him it on any form of rational basis."
Reasons to dislike him ...
(1) He's a Tory (even though some of my best ...etc)
(2) Public schoolboy (even though that's not his fault)
(3) Punchable face (I blame the genes)
(4) Populist.
(5) Flip-flopper par excellence.
(6) Ambitious
(7) No visible talent (but may be OK putting up wallpaper).
I expect his mother likes him, though.
It has also been going on for donkey's years and most of it is handbags stuff with a nasty flair up every so often.
Some average lol