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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 2nd: Match previous opposi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,267
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 2nd: Match previous opposition leaders in non general election years

As well as the London Mayoral election, Holyrood and the Welsh Assembly there are police commissioner elections throughout England and, of course, the usual round of local elections. It is the latter which should give us an indication of party popularity and activist morale.

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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2016
    Titter .... :smiley:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    There were years in which Labour went backwards in the local elections, 1982, 1983, and 1987.

    But, I'm guessing that those aren't the most encouraging precedents.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Slightly mischievous thread... Corbyn needs a good May 2nd, but it's far from clear that this is a reasonable definition of it, although I'm sure that there will be plenty within the PLP who will try and ensure this is the benchmark for the media narrative.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OGH Falklands war was 1982
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    edited March 2016
    FPT
    justin124 said:

    If 20 by elections were to be forced over the expenses issue I would fancy the Tories to lose half of them - including Thanet South.

    You could be right, but voters are contrary. They might just see UKIP as bad losers, and return the Conservatives with bigger majorities.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Sean_F said:

    There were years in which Labour went backwards in the local elections, 1982, 1983, and 1987.

    But, I'm guessing that those aren't the most encouraging precedents.

    Those were general election years and the Falklands war.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Just looking at the GE years as I wasn't immediately clear why they were excluded (the main party of opposition is still the main party of opposition when the voters go to the polls).

    Hague 2001 net gains
    Howard 2005 net gains
    Cameron 2010 net losses
    Miliband 2015 net losses

    I may be missing something important but on the face of it Corbyn wouldn't necessarily be doing worse than Cameron in 2010 or Miliband in 2015 if net losses for Labour result. Better all round not to have to defend that outcome, of course.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016
    Sean_F said:

    There were years in which Labour went backwards in the local elections, 1982, 1983, and 1987.

    But, I'm guessing that those aren't the most encouraging precedents.

    1982. Foot = Corbin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    justin124 said:

    If 20 by elections were to be forced over the expenses issue I would fancy the Tories to lose half of them - including Thanet South.

    You could be right, but voters are contrary. They might just see UKIP as bad losers, and return the Conservatives with bigger majorities.
    Like Winchester 97?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Polruan said:

    Just looking at the GE years as I wasn't immediately clear why they were excluded (the main party of opposition is still the main party of opposition when the voters go to the polls).

    Hague 2001 net gains
    Howard 2005 net gains
    Cameron 2010 net losses
    Miliband 2015 net losses

    I may be missing something important but on the face of it Corbyn wouldn't necessarily be doing worse than Cameron in 2010 or Miliband in 2015 if net losses for Labour result. Better all round not to have to defend that outcome, of course.

    Locals at same time as a GE usually see an uplift in the Govt compared to the trend.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    MikeSmithson said:

    Sean_F said:

    There were years in which Labour went backwards in the local elections, 1982, 1983, and 1987.

    But, I'm guessing that those aren't the most encouraging precedents.

    Those were general election years and the Falklands war.

    Mrs. Thatcher always liked to test the water, with local elections, before calling a general election.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:

    There were years in which Labour went backwards in the local elections, 1982, 1983, and 1987.

    But, I'm guessing that those aren't the most encouraging precedents.

    And 1992 just three weeks after the general election. So there are several precedents for Opposition Leaders suffering losses at Local Elections. Going further back Labour suffered losses in both 1961 and 1955.
    Another example is 1970 when Labour gained several hundred seats from the Tories but still went on to lose a month later at the general election..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I missed this from Boris, he's starting to craft his message
    It is a once in a lifetime chance to energise our democracy, cut bureaucracy, save £8 bn a year, control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies that are currently forbidden. Vote Leave would be good for Britain and the only way to jolt the EU into the reform it needs. Let’s call it Project Hope.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12177006/Dont-be-taken-in-by-Project-Fear-staying-in-the-EU-is-the-risky-choice.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    justin124 said:

    If 20 by elections were to be forced over the expenses issue I would fancy the Tories to lose half of them - including Thanet South.

    You could be right, but voters are contrary. They might just see UKIP as bad losers, and return the Conservatives with bigger majorities.
    Like Winchester 97?
    Yes, Malone's case was perfectly reasonable, but the voters despised him for challenging the result.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Polruan said:

    Just looking at the GE years as I wasn't immediately clear why they were excluded (the main party of opposition is still the main party of opposition when the voters go to the polls).

    Hague 2001 net gains
    Howard 2005 net gains
    Cameron 2010 net losses
    Miliband 2015 net losses

    I may be missing something important but on the face of it Corbyn wouldn't necessarily be doing worse than Cameron in 2010 or Miliband in 2015 if net losses for Labour result. Better all round not to have to defend that outcome, of course.

    Locals at same time as a GE usually see an uplift in the Govt compared to the trend.
    Thanks, I see. Is it at all quantifiable, e.g. can we judge whether Cameron 2010/Milband 2015 would have gained but for that uplift?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    justin124 said:

    If 20 by elections were to be forced over the expenses issue I would fancy the Tories to lose half of them - including Thanet South.

    You could be right, but voters are contrary. They might just see UKIP as bad losers, and return the Conservatives with bigger majorities.
    But there would be a whiff of scandal hanging over such by elections which would not be helpful to the Tories I suggest.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    Net LD gains in May as well? Take it these figures are England, not including Scotland & Wales?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
    I think this referendum is energising Kipper and Tory voters inclined to leave, coupled with differential turnout.

    Unlikely I know, but still possible.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    edited March 2016
    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Polruan said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Polruan said:

    Just looking at the GE years as I wasn't immediately clear why they were excluded (the main party of opposition is still the main party of opposition when the voters go to the polls).

    Hague 2001 net gains
    Howard 2005 net gains
    Cameron 2010 net losses
    Miliband 2015 net losses

    I may be missing something important but on the face of it Corbyn wouldn't necessarily be doing worse than Cameron in 2010 or Miliband in 2015 if net losses for Labour result. Better all round not to have to defend that outcome, of course.

    Locals at same time as a GE usually see an uplift in the Govt compared to the trend.
    Thanks, I see. Is it at all quantifiable, e.g. can we judge whether Cameron 2010/Milband 2015 would have gained but for that uplift?
    Not that I know. Just noticed the discrepancy and some years the local and the GE are on same day so we get a massive increase in turnout in the local.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Elections are on May 2nd in body of thread, May 5th on the header - one is wrong....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    I doubt the local elections will get huge coverage, especially this May. London, Wales and Scotland will steal the headlines and it is on these results that Corbyn will be judged.

    This is not particularly good news for him. While Khan may well win in London Labour seat losses in Scotland are nailed on and I suspect Wales is the same. In the latter they may well lose their majority and in the former there is an outside risk of losing second place to the Tories (despite today's poll).

    If he were to add to his misery by not matching the mighty Ed it might increase the pressure at the margins but I think it is these more high profile results that will determine the mood.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    There's also a couple of by elections that day too.

    Both should be comfortable Labour holds, a loss or a very close finish might overshadow the council results.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,943
    OldKingCole said:

    Net LD gains in May as well? Take it these figures are England, not including Scotland & Wales?

    Unlikely, as 2012 was the high watermark for the libdems last parliament
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OldKingCole said:

    Net LD gains in May as well?

    After 7 years of declines? Possible. Interesting to see if the LDs have yet reached rock bottom. Probably not in Scotland, Wales or London.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    MarqueeMark said:

    Elections are on May 2nd in body of thread, May 5th on the header - one is wrong....

    Vote early vote often.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
    I think this referendum is energising Kipper and Tory voters inclined to leave, coupled with differential turnout.

    Unlikely I know, but still possible.
    Leave inclined Tories are Tories; they aren' going to vote for Corbyn. A few might sit on their hands. A f might vote UKIP. But even so. It's Corbyn. What's the worst thing that happens to the Tories if Corbyn does well? Corbyn stays in place. Result....
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    MarqueeMark said:

    Elections are on May 2nd in body of thread, May 5th on the header - one is wrong....

    May 5th. I've fixed the typo now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567
    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    More Rotten Boroughs I say.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Plato_Says said:

    I missed this from Boris, he's starting to craft his message

    It is a once in a lifetime chance to energise our democracy, cut bureaucracy, save £8 bn a year, control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies that are currently forbidden. Vote Leave would be good for Britain and the only way to jolt the EU into the reform it needs. Let’s call it Project Hope.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12177006/Dont-be-taken-in-by-Project-Fear-staying-in-the-EU-is-the-risky-choice.html

    I think "Project Cross-Your-Fingers and Hope" might be a more realistic choice.

    Looks like Boris has turned against EFTA/EEA if he is saying we can control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies. I might be wrong but that seems to me quite an change from what he has been saying up to now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Last line of thread is still saying 2nd May (and has a typo in Corbyn...!)
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    There is the possibility of some of the Conservative activists disengaging with the local campaign to save resources for the referendum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Surely UKIP will do quite well, you get to keep Corbo in place by keeping the Lab-Tory gap down and also make Dave sweat a touch. Not good to give leaders too easy a ride.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    edited March 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    Last line of thread is still saying 2nd May (and has a typo in Corbyn...!)

    Coryn had a good May 2nd last year.

    http://athletics.uindy.edu/roster.aspx?rp_id=6320

    [edit: I assume "recorded first career save in an elimination game at the GLVC Tournament, spinning three scoreless innings of one-hit ball" is something good, but I don't really speak softball]
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    MarqueeMark said:

    Last line of thread is still saying 2nd May (and has a typo in Corbyn...!)

    Fixed that too.

    There's a golden rule of PB thread headers. You can never spot your own typos, but you can spot everyone else's in seconds.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    :smiley:
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
    I think this referendum is energising Kipper and Tory voters inclined to leave, coupled with differential turnout.

    Unlikely I know, but still possible.
    Leave inclined Tories are Tories; they aren' going to vote for Corbyn. A few might sit on their hands. A f might vote UKIP. But even so. It's Corbyn. What's the worst thing that happens to the Tories if Corbyn does well? Corbyn stays in place. Result....
    A big swing to UKIP in the locals would have an effect on the referendum campaign itself wouldn't it, setting up a Leave-surge narrative.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    flightpath01 said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
    Your algorithm requires updating.

    Cameron's leading the Remain campaign. How Europhile can you get?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
    I feel guilty for shafting the Lib Dems in government. Is my way of saying sorry and thanks for your hard work in Government.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,943
    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
    I think TSE is joking...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    British citizens who leave the country are entitled to vote, providing they have been away for less than 15 years. So far, only 11,000 people from the hundreds of thousands in Spain are on course to make use of this right.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35688387

    But remember folks, leaving the EU very very risky is the message from the article....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
    I think TSE is joking...
    4th attempt to fly tonight !
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    One for Jezza

    BBC Monitoring
    Drainspotting: Japanese sewage company's manhole cover collectors' cards https://t.co/rzToI31ErG #NewsFromElsewhere https://t.co/sX46KOnYjw
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    British citizens who leave the country are entitled to vote, providing they have been away for less than 15 years. So far, only 11,000 people from the hundreds of thousands in Spain are on course to make use of this right.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35688387

    But remember folks, leaving the EU very very risky is the message from the article....

    the earth will stop, the sky will fall, 4 horsemen will appear on the horizon etc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Seems to be a disproportionate number of white faces in these photos.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3470805/Chaos-Calais-Gangs-migrants-armed-bars-rocks-trying-hijack-lorries-bound-Britain-demolition-Jungle-camp-continues.html

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    t
    You cannot be serious..LD are more europhilic than its possible for a sane person to be!!!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Wanderer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
    I think this referendum is energising Kipper and Tory voters inclined to leave, coupled with differential turnout.

    Unlikely I know, but still possible.
    Leave inclined Tories are Tories; they aren' going to vote for Corbyn. A few might sit on their hands. A f might vote UKIP. But even so. It's Corbyn. What's the worst thing that happens to the Tories if Corbyn does well? Corbyn stays in place. Result....
    A big swing to UKIP in the locals would have an effect on the referendum campaign itself wouldn't it, setting up a Leave-surge narrative.
    On the other hand it could also act as a wake up call and motivate a lot on the centre-left to get out and vote.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    Just three more Irish seats to go, one in Dublin South Central (probably PBP-AAA, else FF on a recount), and two in Longford-Westmeath, where the Labour candidate seems to have been eliminated by 19 votes on the 13th count (!), leaving one SF and 2 FG in the running. Could be that FG will get them both on Labour transfers.

    Dublin Bay North is now complete - the last three seats went to SF and two Indies. Labour missed out, which I think means they are stuck at 6, barring any recounts.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Still counting in Ireland, with three seats to be declared.

    Those with Irish ancestors will be pleased at the long-awaited release of Catholic parish records, with free access currently.
    https://blog.findmypast.co.uk/10-million-new-1632616369.html

    Generally-speaking, the records are better for the eastern counties, and go back further.

    An analysis of these records has revealed the tragedy that befell Ireland in the 1840s. The baptism rate halved in ten years...

    Pretty sure I've just discovered the baptismal record of another great-great-grandfather, in County Louth in August 1814.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    OllyT said:

    Wanderer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
    I think this referendum is energising Kipper and Tory voters inclined to leave, coupled with differential turnout.

    Unlikely I know, but still possible.
    Leave inclined Tories are Tories; they aren' going to vote for Corbyn. A few might sit on their hands. A f might vote UKIP. But even so. It's Corbyn. What's the worst thing that happens to the Tories if Corbyn does well? Corbyn stays in place. Result....
    A big swing to UKIP in the locals would have an effect on the referendum campaign itself wouldn't it, setting up a Leave-surge narrative.
    On the other hand it could also act as a wake up call and motivate a lot on the centre-left to get out and vote.
    That is possible. A triumphant Farage could drive up centre/centre-left turnout.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited March 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    British citizens who leave the country are entitled to vote, providing they have been away for less than 15 years. So far, only 11,000 people from the hundreds of thousands in Spain are on course to make use of this right.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35688387

    But remember folks, leaving the EU very very risky is the message from the article....

    Many Expats go back and forth and probably still retain their British voting rights. They also have large numbers of family and friends in the UK.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    watford30 said:

    flightpath01 said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
    Your algorithm requires updating.

    Cameron's leading the Remain campaign. How Europhile can you get?

    How about wanting to join the Euro?
    How about wanting to be part of a United States of Europe?
    How about wanting much deeper integration?

    Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Just three more Irish seats to go, one in Dublin South Central (probably PBP-AAA, else FF on a recount), and two in Longford-Westmeath, where the Labour candidate seems to have been eliminated by 19 votes on the 13th count (!), leaving one SF and 2 FG in the running. Could be that FG will get them both on Labour transfers.

    Dublin Bay North is now complete - the last three seats went to SF and two Indies. Labour missed out, which I think means they are stuck at 6, barring any recounts.

    Apparently in Longford- Westmeath after the distribution of the second elected candidate's surplus Labour rather surprisingly emerged with a 2 vote lead over Fine Gael - who have been granted a recount!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Plato_Says said:

    I missed this from Boris, he's starting to craft his message

    It is a once in a lifetime chance to energise our democracy, cut bureaucracy, save £8 bn a year, control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies that are currently forbidden. Vote Leave would be good for Britain and the only way to jolt the EU into the reform it needs. Let’s call it Project Hope.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12177006/Dont-be-taken-in-by-Project-Fear-staying-in-the-EU-is-the-risky-choice.html

    Not much point in just telling readers of the Kippergraph though, he can take their votes as read.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
    I feel guilty for shafting the Lib Dems in government. Is my way of saying sorry and thanks for your hard work in Government.
    Your guilt on election night was obvious, expressed as it was in extensive bouts of giggling at the demise of yet another ex-Cabinet Minister. I particularly remember your wailing and gnashing of teeth as Vince Cable went DOWN.......
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Philip_Thompson said:

    watford30 said:

    flightpath01 said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
    Your algorithm requires updating.

    Cameron's leading the Remain campaign. How Europhile can you get?

    How about wanting to join the Euro?
    How about wanting to be part of a United States of Europe?
    How about wanting much deeper integration?

    Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.
    I wonder though... given the strength of Cameron's rhetoric in relation to the inevitable apocalypse awaiting Britain outside the EU, are you confident he'd recommend Leave over Remain-and-join-the-Euro if those were the only two options?
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    Philip_Thompson said:


    How about wanting to join the Euro?
    How about wanting to be part of a United States of Europe?
    How about wanting much deeper integration?

    Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.

    Taking those three ideas in order, I'm:

    Not yet.
    No.
    Yes.

    :)

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    There is the possibility of some of the Conservative activists disengaging with the local campaign to save resources for the referendum.
    Or because they are pissed off with Dave telling his MPs that they shouldn't talk to their constituency associations about the EU Referendum.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    justin124 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Just three more Irish seats to go, one in Dublin South Central (probably PBP-AAA, else FF on a recount), and two in Longford-Westmeath, where the Labour candidate seems to have been eliminated by 19 votes on the 13th count (!), leaving one SF and 2 FG in the running. Could be that FG will get them both on Labour transfers.

    Dublin Bay North is now complete - the last three seats went to SF and two Indies. Labour missed out, which I think means they are stuck at 6, barring any recounts.

    Apparently in Longford- Westmeath after the distribution of the second elected candidate's surplus Labour rather surprisingly emerged with a 2 vote lead over Fine Gael - who have been granted a recount!
    Ah, the joys of Irish counts!

    Maybe Labour will just sneak 7 in that case.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Philip_Thompson said:

    watford30 said:

    flightpath01 said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
    Your algorithm requires updating.

    Cameron's leading the Remain campaign. How Europhile can you get?

    How about wanting to join the Euro?
    How about wanting to be part of a United States of Europe?
    How about wanting much deeper integration?

    Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.
    Touching that you don't think that all those will be proposed further down the line.

    A Remain vote will send that signal to Brussels.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
    I feel guilty for shafting the Lib Dems in government. Is my way of saying sorry and thanks for your hard work in Government.
    Your guilt on election night was obvious, expressed as it was in extensive bouts of giggling at the demise of yet another ex-Cabinet Minister. I particularly remember your wailing and gnashing of teeth as Vince Cable went DOWN.......
    My pain was eased because I had backed the Tories there at 6/1 and wasn't expecting to collect.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Seems to be a disproportionate number of white faces in these photos.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3470805/Chaos-Calais-Gangs-migrants-armed-bars-rocks-trying-hijack-lorries-bound-Britain-demolition-Jungle-camp-continues.html

    That's the problem with Calais these days, you can't see the migrants for all the trustafarians and luvvies that want their photo taken there.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Philip_Thompson said:

    watford30 said:

    flightpath01 said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
    Your algorithm requires updating.

    Cameron's leading the Remain campaign. How Europhile can you get?

    How about wanting to join the Euro?
    How about wanting to be part of a United States of Europe?
    How about wanting much deeper integration?

    Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.
    How about wanting to use this referendum to "dock" the UK with the EU.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11644696/Jean-Claude-Juncker-David-Cameron-wants-Britain-permanently-docked-with-the-EU.html

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11658810/David-Camerons-has-finally-confirmed-that-he-is-pro-European-and-wants-us-to-stay-in.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,943
    Indigo said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Seems to be a disproportionate number of white faces in these photos.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3470805/Chaos-Calais-Gangs-migrants-armed-bars-rocks-trying-hijack-lorries-bound-Britain-demolition-Jungle-camp-continues.html

    That's the problem with Calais these days, you can't see the migrants for all the trustafarians and luvvies that want their photo taken there.
    Looks like a complete breakdown in the rule of Jude Law.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Indigo said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Seems to be a disproportionate number of white faces in these photos.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3470805/Chaos-Calais-Gangs-migrants-armed-bars-rocks-trying-hijack-lorries-bound-Britain-demolition-Jungle-camp-continues.html

    That's the problem with Calais these days, you can't see the migrants for all the trustafarians and luvvies that want their photo taken there.
    It does seem to be these days that these tools are on a permanent gap yaaahhh...which involve travelling the world protesting.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    williamglenn said:

    Indigo said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Seems to be a disproportionate number of white faces in these photos.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3470805/Chaos-Calais-Gangs-migrants-armed-bars-rocks-trying-hijack-lorries-bound-Britain-demolition-Jungle-camp-continues.html

    That's the problem with Calais these days, you can't see the migrants for all the trustafarians and luvvies that want their photo taken there.
    Looks like a complete breakdown in the rule of Jude Law.
    boom tish.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
    I feel guilty for shafting the Lib Dems in government. Is my way of saying sorry and thanks for your hard work in Government.
    They shafted themselves as you well know. Far too much listening to Cable.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.'

    Perhaps not, but wittingly or unwittingly they are signing the UK up to a Europhile future.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    runnymede said:

    'Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.'

    Perhaps not, but wittingly or unwittingly they are signing the UK up to a Europhile future.

    I think the term "useful idiots" has been used here in this context on more than one occasion ;)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    Sigh. He's getting his message crafting honed. And many of the keenest Kippers/Leavers read him anew now. It's good for morale and helping to create something more coherent for them to use when attempting to convert voters.

    I know you're frustrated, but this is silly
    Indigo said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I missed this from Boris, he's starting to craft his message

    It is a once in a lifetime chance to energise our democracy, cut bureaucracy, save £8 bn a year, control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies that are currently forbidden. Vote Leave would be good for Britain and the only way to jolt the EU into the reform it needs. Let’s call it Project Hope.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12177006/Dont-be-taken-in-by-Project-Fear-staying-in-the-EU-is-the-risky-choice.html
    Not much point in just telling readers of the Kippergraph though, he can take their votes as read.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    https://www.facebook.com/billyontheair/photos/a.378533805511461.88575.108990639132447/1104530176245150/?type=3
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Saw Labour canvassers for the 2 time in 13 years. At least their latest leaflet for the Council election is literate, no spelling or grammatical errors. Wished I had told the would be councillor what I thought of Jezza being an asset to Tories, LDs et al.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I missed this from Boris, he's starting to craft his message

    It is a once in a lifetime chance to energise our democracy, cut bureaucracy, save £8 bn a year, control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies that are currently forbidden. Vote Leave would be good for Britain and the only way to jolt the EU into the reform it needs. Let’s call it Project Hope.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12177006/Dont-be-taken-in-by-Project-Fear-staying-in-the-EU-is-the-risky-choice.html
    I think "Project Cross-Your-Fingers and Hope" might be a more realistic choice.

    Looks like Boris has turned against EFTA/EEA if he is saying we can control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies. I might be wrong but that seems to me quite an change from what he has been saying up to now.

    "Take the so-called economic risks. Remember when you weigh them up that the people now issuing the blood-curdling warnings against Brexit are often the very same (as the former governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, just pointed out) as the people who prophesied disaster if Britain failed to join the euro. In fact, the opposite turned out to be true. It was the euro that proved to be a nightmare, an economic doomsday machine that is still causing low growth, high unemployment and real misery in some European countries."

    Entirely correct. Anyone who played a key role in encouraging Euro entry making these warnings who does the same now with a straight face and no apology or acknowledgement they were wrong last time should be ignored.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
    I think this referendum is energising Kipper and Tory voters inclined to leave, coupled with differential turnout.

    Unlikely I know, but still possible.
    Leave inclined Tories are Tories; they aren' going to vote for Corbyn. A few might sit on their hands. A f might vote UKIP. But even so. It's Corbyn. What's the worst thing that happens to the Tories if Corbyn does well? Corbyn stays in place. Result....
    The tory party needs more than tories of whichever stripe to win elections. I do not see how following Labour into self indulgence helps anybody.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2016
    watford30 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    watford30 said:

    flightpath01 said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
    Your algorithm requires updating.

    Cameron's leading the Remain campaign. How Europhile can you get?

    How about wanting to join the Euro?
    How about wanting to be part of a United States of Europe?
    How about wanting much deeper integration?

    Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.
    Touching that you don't think that all those will be proposed further down the line.

    A Remain vote will send that signal to Brussels.
    No I don't think that. I'd rather debate the issue at hand rather than monsters you imagine under the bed.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    runnymede said:

    'Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.'

    Perhaps not, but wittingly or unwittingly they are signing the UK up to a Europhile future.

    No they are not.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Entirely correct. Anyone who played a key role in encouraging Euro entry making these warnings who does the same now with a straight face and no apology or acknowledgement they were wrong last time should be ignored.

    On the other hand, we should presumably give much credence to people like David Cameron, who campaigned against Euro entry as a candidate in 1997 and consistently thereafter, or William Hague, famous for his strong anti-Euro stance.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    flightpath01 said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Quite a lot of tories very unhappy with Cameron outing himself as a fully paid-up Europhile will not turn out, or vote UKIP/AN Other surely?

    I think my local council is all up every 3 years so I haven't got the chance to register my displeasure! It is I believe now 100% Tory so it would have been nice to let at least one or two other parties in on the meetings... #RottenBorough

    Cameron is not outing himself as a europhile. But you have to say that don't you.
    You miss the point

    Voters not as engaged as the good citizens of PB.com will IMHO on average have thought of Cameron as (much?) more Eurosceptic than he has been revealed as in recent weeks. My Dad (a true blue) for one, who was moaning about him quite vociferously only this weekend.

    Of course we all know he has had posters of Jacques Delors on his wall for years but that's not what i was saying...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited March 2016
    OllyT said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I missed this from Boris, he's starting to craft his message

    It is a once in a lifetime chance to energise our democracy, cut bureaucracy, save £8 bn a year, control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies that are currently forbidden. Vote Leave would be good for Britain and the only way to jolt the EU into the reform it needs. Let’s call it Project Hope.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12177006/Dont-be-taken-in-by-Project-Fear-staying-in-the-EU-is-the-risky-choice.html
    I think "Project Cross-Your-Fingers and Hope" might be a more realistic choice.

    Looks like Boris has turned against EFTA/EEA if he is saying we can control our borders and strike new trade deals with growth economies. I might be wrong but that seems to me quite an change from what he has been saying up to now.

    You've got to laugh - same language as in the Conservative Party manifesto.

    Is he going to take the time or trouble to explain that this means no EEA/EFTA as you say.

    Because SHIRLEY he wouldn't want us to be in EEA/EFTA having just said that...

    and that really would be being economic with the actualité, which of course is funny given the various accusations flung at Dave on here of late.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,387
    dr_spyn said:

    Saw Labour canvassers for the 2 time in 13 years. At least their latest leaflet for the Council election is literate, no spelling or grammatical errors. Wished I had told the would be councillor what I thought of Jezza being an asset to Tories, LDs et al.

    Bless. My long passed 'aunt' (actually a removed cousin) was a Liberal/LD activist for many years and took no greater pleasure than in pointing out the grammatical and spelling errors in other parties' leaflets.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Meanwhile undercover of the EU arguement, Theresa May lets rip with her totalitarian impulses

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/01/snoopers-charter-to-extend-police-access-to-phone-and-internet-data
    The bill will now:

    • Allow police to access all web browsing records in specific crime investigations, beyond the illegal websites and communications services specified in the original draft bill.

    • Extend the use of state remote computer hacking from the security services to the police in cases involving a “threat to life” or missing persons. This can include cases involving “damage to somebody’s mental health”, but will be restricted to use by the National Crime Agency and a small number of major police forces.

    The expansion of police powers to access web browsing history as part of their investigations follows pressure from the police, and the use of these powers does not need the “double-lock” ministerial authorisation.
    I am sure if I look back a month or two I will find some of the usual Cameroon cheerleaders telling me it would all be right becaue of the double-lock... well apparently not.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Wanderer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    Labour would have to finish more than 7% ahead of the Tories to make a net gain, which I just don't see happening (although events can always intervene).
    I think this referendum is energising Kipper and Tory voters inclined to leave, coupled with differential turnout.

    Unlikely I know, but still possible.
    Leave inclined Tories are Tories; they aren' going to vote for Corbyn. A few might sit on their hands. A f might vote UKIP. But even so. It's Corbyn. What's the worst thing that happens to the Tories if Corbyn does well? Corbyn stays in place. Result....
    A big swing to UKIP in the locals would have an effect on the referendum campaign itself wouldn't it, setting up a Leave-surge narrative.
    Smart kippers would maybe NOT vote UKIP in the locals, allowing complacency to creep in about the In side winning. Pensioners turn out as usual, Pro-Euro kids go to glasto or down the pub, BoJo is PM by October

    lol
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Entirely correct. Anyone who played a key role in encouraging Euro entry making these warnings who does the same now with a straight face and no apology or acknowledgement they were wrong last time should be ignored.'

    Indeed. Which probably also encompasses some of the louder Remainers on this board.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon UKIP might save Corbyn's bacon this time.

    In 2012 UKIP were polling around 3%, this time I can see them polling early/mid teens.

    They could end up taking more votes from the Tories and giving Lab net gains.

    You can see the Tories suffering a lot of damage at the hands of UKIP given Cameron's new-found Europhilia, though the same may happen to Labour as a result of the farcical position of having a moderately sceptic leader who has to make a pro-European case.

    The other thing is that if it's a bad night for the Tories and a bad night for Labour it's a fairly safe bet which one of those events will lead the media narrative.
    In May I will be registering my disgust at Dave's europhillia by voting Lib Dem.
    Does not compute!
    I feel guilty for shafting the Lib Dems in government. Is my way of saying sorry and thanks for your hard work in Government.
    Your guilt on election night was obvious, expressed as it was in extensive bouts of giggling at the demise of yet another ex-Cabinet Minister. I particularly remember your wailing and gnashing of teeth as Vince Cable went DOWN.......
    My pain was eased because I had backed the Tories there at 6/1 and wasn't expecting to collect.

    Despite votes parachuted in from Bedford IIRC!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/648744/Nato-not-EU-keeping-us-safe
    A SENIOR military figure has sunk David Cameron’s claims that belonging to the EU is essential to British security.

    Rear Admiral Chris Parry, who previously commanded HMS Fearless, has said that it is “Nato (and Nato alone) [which] provides the collective guarantees that our island nation needs.”

    He compared the successful “well planned” defeat of Saddam Hussein’s forces in the First Gulf War 25 years ago in a Nato run campaign, compared to the “feebly planned, strategically myopic” EU inspired intervention in Libya in 2011.
    More government bullshit rumbled. tsk.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,943
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Entirely correct. Anyone who played a key role in encouraging Euro entry making these warnings who does the same now with a straight face and no apology or acknowledgement they were wrong last time should be ignored.

    On the other hand, we should presumably give much credence to people like David Cameron, who campaigned against Euro entry as a candidate in 1997 and consistently thereafter, or William Hague, famous for his strong anti-Euro stance.
    And should we ignore those who were vociferously pro-European, and are anti-now?

    Once wrong, always wrong?
    Or should we applaud their change of heart?
    And does that work both ways?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Polruan said:

    Slightly mischievous thread... Corbyn needs a good May 2nd, but it's far from clear that this is a reasonable definition of it, although I'm sure that there will be plenty within the PLP who will try and ensure this is the benchmark for the media narrative.

    Yes, that's a reasonable point (the median independent expectation seems to be a loss of 200 seats), and there is a corollary - if Labour doesn't do well, it won't put Corbyn at risk. The starting point of Mike and PLP critics is that the first duty of political parties is to win. The position of most Labour members is different: that we need to have a party with an approach that we think attractive, as otherwise the game isn't worth the candle, and then do as well as we can, in the knowledge that it may be difficult.

    So the primary test is, "Is Corbyn successfully changing the party's position on, for instance, austerity?" - the answer to which is yes. A secondary test is then "And how do we maximise support for it?" - the answer to which is obviously not "Constantly brief the press that you think it's rubbish". So the habitual public critics risk getting the blame for any setbacks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,943
    BTW, I spoke to someone today who was utterly convinced that Grassroot Out would get the nod from the EC.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    flightpath01 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Not all who vote Remain are Europhiles.'

    Perhaps not, but wittingly or unwittingly they are signing the UK up to a Europhile future.

    No they are not.
    An erudite, compellingly and well thought out argument as ever Mr Flightpath.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited March 2016
    runnymede said:

    'Entirely correct. Anyone who played a key role in encouraging Euro entry making these warnings who does the same now with a straight face and no apology or acknowledgement they were wrong last time should be ignored.'

    Indeed. Which probably also encompasses some of the louder Remainers on this board.

    Not me, guv.

    Let me tell you where I am.. (!)

    Anything which impinges directly upon sovereignty I will resist. The Euro, ECU, the Fiscal Compact, SSM/SRM, where what I determine as our core decision-making, impinging on the political mandate given to the government by the British people, is compromised or diluted.

    Now I have of course drawn my own red line at what I think is de trop.

    I don't think mutually-agreed trade rules that, for example, favour Portugese, and disadvantage UK basket-weavers crosses it. Neither do I mind signing up to a set of regulations for eg. the financial services industry where we have had our say and have arrived at a compromise. Such is a trade agreement...you win some, you lose some.

    Now, that is my version of red lines on sovereignty and I fully understand if others' are closer to home, so to speak.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    And should we ignore those who were vociferously pro-European, and are anti-now?

    Once wrong, always wrong?
    Or should we applaud their change of heart?
    And does that work both ways?

    I think we should listen to both sides, and in particular try to understand why they are taking the views they take. Certainly that's what I do.

    And, of course, not throw around ludicrous insults of 'dishonesty', 'Europhilia', 'treachery', 'careeerism', 'stooges of Osborne', etc etc. Such insults simply demonstrate the intellectual vacuousness of those making them.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, I spoke to someone today who was utterly convinced that Grassroot Out would get the nod from the EC.

    On what grounds?
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Once wrong, always wrong?'

    People who endlessly peddle scare stories that are consistently proved wrong by events should surely be ignored.

    But of course former Europhiles who have since seen the light are more than welcome in the Kingdom of Heaven. Precious few of them that there are...
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Entirely correct. Anyone who played a key role in encouraging Euro entry making these warnings who does the same now with a straight face and no apology or acknowledgement they were wrong last time should be ignored.

    On the other hand, we should presumably give much credence to people like David Cameron, who campaigned against Euro entry as a candidate in 1997 and consistently thereafter, or William Hague, famous for his strong anti-Euro stance.
    Or give them urgent treatment for Stockholm Syndrome?
This discussion has been closed.