Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this US YouGov polling is correct then the chances of a

2456

Comments

  • Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865
    edited February 2016

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Ryan Allen
    I had a feeling this would happen
    #FlyingScotsman #virgin #virgin trains https://t.co/thYlXVC2B0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited February 2016
    Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    Trump leads Florida

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

    Virginia is massively for Hillary.

    Trump levelish, but rising in PA.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

    NC barely HRC.

    It is very very tight.
  • taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    It's interesting that eight years of a black President don't seem to have done anything to reduce race as an issue in the US.
    I wonder if this is blowblack over the Confederate Flag issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    Bet you could have got very similar polling for W. And he was elected. Twice.
  • taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    It's interesting that eight years of a black President don't seem to have done anything to reduce race as an issue in the US.
    He's mixed race - his mama was white!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
  • taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    It's interesting that eight years of a black President don't seem to have done anything to reduce race as an issue in the US.
    I wonder if this is blowblack over the Confederate Flag issue.
    It's been a while since the heritage Confederate Air Force's members voted to change their name to Commemorative Air Force.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commemorative_Air_Force
  • SkyNews
    .@JeremyCorbyn says @David_Cameron is jealous of his “Holloway Road” style https://t.co/ZmeYA3GHtu

    Bwahaha

    Jezza shows he has a sense of humor at least :)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2016

    Ryan Allen
    I had a feeling this would happen
    #FlyingScotsman #virgin #virgin trains https://t.co/thYlXVC2B0

    Sometimes, life sucks. - and that was one of those occasions. :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2016
    With Dame Janet Smith's report, the BBC is engaged in yet another cover-up

    BBC management must change radically and fast, despite this latest whitewash

    Dame Janet Smith's conclusions about the BBC's management culture during the Jimmy Savile years – published today after a two-and-a-half-year inquiry – make remarkably convenient reading for the current director-general, Lord Tony Hall. The BBC cannot be corporately convicted of conniving in Savile's persistent abuse, concludes Dame Janet. No senior manager knew or should have known.

    At the same time, the BBC has sacked 71-year-old DJ Tony Blackburn, apparently over an incident of alleged sexual misconduct with a 15-year-old girl in 1971. (Blackburn is not, however, criticised in Dame Janet's report, and hotly contests the BBC's allegations. He is threatening legal action.)

    On the surface, things look rosy for Lord Hall. He and his lieutenants have escaped censure by Dame Janet, and – with the Blackburn sacking – he can be seen to be taking stern action against anyone associated with the grubby Savile era.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/12172997/With-Dame-Janet-Smiths-report-the-BBC-is-engaged-in-yet-another-cover-up.html
  • Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
    The BBC a few months ago did a documentary on the current day KKK, was amusing and alarming in equal measure.

    We're not talking about the brightest bulbs in the chandelier
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Jezza

    image
  • Ryan Allen
    I had a feeling this would happen
    #FlyingScotsman #virgin #virgin trains https://t.co/thYlXVC2B0

    Sometimes, life sucks. - and that was one of those occasions. :lol:
    Oh dear....
  • I have it on good authority that the Koch brothers have a Tsunami of woe saved up for the Clintons re their 'foundation' and its funding and spending. They plan on no release of this until about 3 weeks before the election...people may be less terrified of Trump if they are persuaded the Clintons are crooks.
  • Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    That's only because the Democrats have put away states like Nevada and New Mexico. The "swing states" are predominantly ones that are now must wins for Republicans. Places like Wisconsin and Minnesota and Michigan are actually blue states that the Republicans would have to perform very well in to get to 270.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    David Owen backs Brexit? Didn't he leave Labour in large part because it was taken over by the left who wanted to leave EU?

    God loves a sinner come to his understanding
  • TW1R64TW1R64 Posts: 56
    I rejoined the Conservative Party on Sunday in anticipation of the next leadership election.
    On Tuesday evening a local party official knocked at the door to speak with me. My Labour supporting partner answered the door!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    kle4 said:

    SkyNews
    .@JeremyCorbyn says @David_Cameron is jealous of his “Holloway Road” style https://t.co/ZmeYA3GHtu

    Bwahaha

    Smart way to play it.
    Err - yes if you're a fifteen year old.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Oh err

    Dozens of #ISIS fighters surrender to the Kurdish Peshmerga northern #Iraq - https://t.co/k348fFiD4x
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2016

    Places like Wisconsin and Minnesota and Michigan are actually blue states that the Republicans would have to perform very well in to get to 270.

    But Trump has the potential to do that, IMO, if up against Clinton. Romney's performance with the industrial working-class was dragged down by the perception he was a rich snob who didn't care about his employees when he was a businessman.
  • Oh err

    Dozens of #ISIS fighters surrender to the Kurdish Peshmerga northern #Iraq - https://t.co/k348fFiD4x

    Don't fancy their chances...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    Trump leads Florida

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

    Virginia is massively for Hillary.

    Trump levelish, but rising in PA.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

    NC barely HRC.

    It is very very tight.
    And the Donald hasn't even started on Clinton...
  • RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    Trump leads Florida

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

    Virginia is massively for Hillary.

    Trump levelish, but rising in PA.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

    NC barely HRC.

    It is very very tight.
    And the Donald hasn't even started on Clinton...
    Don't fancy her chances...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Colorado looks like it'll go red this year from the early head to heads.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    This is most amusing

    The Unofficial Ladybird Guide To Left-Wing People
    ...Working-class people like to drink alcohol and have sex. They do not understand that these activities are dangerous and need continuous education from left-wing people.

    Working-class people need to be protected from newspapers, even though they don’t read them anymore. They are easily influenced and their happy-go-lucky ways can be turned into bigoted nasty ways. Left-wing people are needed to help them use Facebook carefully and not make mistakes.

    Many left-wing people have a very nice life, but they like to be sad. To help with this, they choose to be sad for other people. Sometimes these people are far away and sometimes they are nearby, but different to them...

    Left-wing people care so much, it makes them hate people who don’t show that they care. These people are right-wing people. Left-wing people have given them a name, it is “Tory scum”. Left-wing people like to shout at the right-wing people and tell them that they are scum, even when they aren’t listening.

    Shouting at the Tories is another way to show that they care. Caring is very important to left-wing people.

    Left-wing people care so deeply that they don’t have time for thinking and convincing. They use their precious time for shouting about caring..
    https://wortharguingfor.wordpress.com/tag/informed-choices/
  • Nevada would be in play for Trump, given it is a strong state for him.

    Surprised any white southerners think it a good thing their side lost the civil war. Interesting thing with Trump he doesn't come from one of the four big regional cultures (New England Yankee, Mid Atlantic Quaker, Highland South Scotch Irish or Lowland South Cavalier), being a New Yorker of recent immigrant heritage, and bizarrely his strength is in the two opposing cultures of the South and Greater New England (its a rivalry going back to the English civil war).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
    The BBC a few months ago did a documentary on the current day KKK, was amusing and alarming in equal measure.

    We're not talking about the brightest bulbs in the chandelier
    Have you read Them by Jon Ronson? There's a wonderful chapter in it where he meets with the new leader of the KKK.
  • RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    Trump leads Florida

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

    Virginia is massively for Hillary.

    Trump levelish, but rising in PA.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

    NC barely HRC.

    It is very very tight.
    And the Donald hasn't even started on Clinton...
    Yes he has. Was trying to blame her for Bill's infidelity. Republicans have been doing so for two years on Benghazi, emails etc.

    Meanwhile Dems have kept powder dry on Trump. They will unleash as soon as Rubio has no path back.
  • TW1R64 said:

    I rejoined the Conservative Party on Sunday in anticipation of the next leadership election.
    On Tuesday evening a local party official knocked at the door to speak with me. My Labour supporting partner answered the door!

    Mmmm... maybe I should join as well.
  • Oh err

    Dozens of #ISIS fighters surrender to the Kurdish Peshmerga northern #Iraq - https://t.co/k348fFiD4x

    IS is crumbling rapidly, lost a chunk of territory in East Aleppo, including the Thermal Power Plant which will now be able to supply electricity to Aleppo, and they are looking to cut their Turkish supply line with the SAA advancing towards the southern shores of Lake Assad.
  • With Dame Janet Smith's report, the BBC is engaged in yet another cover-up
    BBC management must change radically and fast, despite this latest whitewash
    Dame Janet Smith's conclusions about the BBC's management culture during the Jimmy Savile years – published today after a two-and-a-half-year inquiry – make remarkably convenient reading for the current director-general, Lord Tony Hall. The BBC cannot be corporately convicted of conniving in Savile's persistent abuse, concludes Dame Janet. No senior manager knew or should have known.

    Simply too big and dominant in the UK media.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,504

    Oh err

    Dozens of #ISIS fighters surrender to the Kurdish Peshmerga northern #Iraq - https://t.co/k348fFiD4x

    Don't fancy their chances...
    As they sowed......

  • Danny565 said:

    Places like Wisconsin and Minnesota and Michigan are actually blue states that the Republicans would have to perform very well in to get to 270.

    But Trump has the potential to do that, IMO, if up against Clinton. Romney's performance with the industrial working-class was dragged down by the perception he was a rich snob who didn't care about his employees when he was a businessman.
    Trump has far more dodgy business practices in his path than Romney. Apparently he regularly would only pay 90% of bills to small business suppliers - as little as possible so it wasn't quite worth their effort to sue him.
  • Sean_F said:

    Oh ho

    BBC
    Greece recalls ambassador from Austria amid sharp EU divisions over migrant crisis https://t.co/Or10Q1syic

    Did Greece really think that other European nations would be content for them to wave huge numbers of people North?
    Why not given that the EU has suggested that Turkey should indefinitely accept large numbers from Syria who get on to Greece following everything Merkel has said? I'm wondering where exactly Merkel etc think these migrants should be.

    Greece caused their economic crisis, they haven't caused this migration one.
  • Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    What's the motivation behind that particular collection of "swing" states?
  • LondonBob said:

    Nevada would be in play for Trump, given it is a strong state for him.

    Surprised any white southerners think it a good thing their side lost the civil war. Interesting thing with Trump he doesn't come from one of the four big regional cultures (New England Yankee, Mid Atlantic Quaker, Highland South Scotch Irish or Lowland South Cavalier), being a New Yorker of recent immigrant heritage, and bizarrely his strength is in the two opposing cultures of the South and Greater New England (its a rivalry going back to the English civil war).

    Would you like to offer odds on Trump winning Nevada in general??
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    edited February 2016
    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    What's the motivation behind that particular collection of "swing" states?
    The states where the Republicans came within 10% in 2012, with 10 or more Electoral College votes.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Well YouGov have a history of having a left-wing clientele so this is hardly surprising.
  • This is most amusing

    The Unofficial Ladybird Guide To Left-Wing People

    ...Working-class people like to drink alcohol and have sex. They do not understand that these activities are dangerous and need continuous education from left-wing people.

    Working-class people need to be protected from newspapers, even though they don’t read them anymore. They are easily influenced and their happy-go-lucky ways can be turned into bigoted nasty ways. Left-wing people are needed to help them use Facebook carefully and not make mistakes.

    Many left-wing people have a very nice life, but they like to be sad. To help with this, they choose to be sad for other people. Sometimes these people are far away and sometimes they are nearby, but different to them...

    Left-wing people care so much, it makes them hate people who don’t show that they care. These people are right-wing people. Left-wing people have given them a name, it is “Tory scum”. Left-wing people like to shout at the right-wing people and tell them that they are scum, even when they aren’t listening.

    Shouting at the Tories is another way to show that they care. Caring is very important to left-wing people.

    Left-wing people care so deeply that they don’t have time for thinking and convincing. They use their precious time for shouting about caring..
    https://wortharguingfor.wordpress.com/tag/informed-choices/

    http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51txGQoUkvL._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
    http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1022/3503/products/Screen_shot_2015-11-25_at_14.03.24_grande.png?v=1448461458
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    tpfkar said:

    Once he's got the nomination sown up, he'll pivot back to sanity / centre as fast as he can.
    How many of the 49% will take another look at him?
    My book hopes that a large number will - bright bright green on Trump

    A Trump presidency would surely run on the basis of how he feels each morning when he wakes up, A good, mellow night's sleep would be fine. But a tricky night might be the prelude to more irrational days.

    Whwreas Obama's presidency depends on whether he shot above or below 80 on the golf course the day before.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    My current best guess is Democrats 271 - Republicans 267, but VERY early days yet

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/ad7nn
  • I have it on good authority that the Koch brothers have a Tsunami of woe saved up for the Clintons re their 'foundation' and its funding and spending. They plan on no release of this until about 3 weeks before the election...people may be less terrified of Trump if they are persuaded the Clintons are crooks.

    Since this sort of allegation (true or not) has been around for decades its a bit naive to think it will have any affect now.
    The activities of the Koch Bros - a sort of upmarket Ashcroft - can well spur support rather than drain it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2016

    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    Crickey some people really do get upset over very little. I presume the same people who are signing that would never criticise that fact Cameron went to Eton or poke fun at pictures showing him wearing "funny" getup when he was Oxford?

    I get more upset by those that sympathise with terrorists or send us to war based upon a lie.
  • I have it on good authority that the Koch brothers have a Tsunami of woe saved up for the Clintons re their 'foundation' and its funding and spending. They plan on no release of this until about 3 weeks before the election...people may be less terrified of Trump if they are persuaded the Clintons are crooks.

    Since this sort of allegation (true or not) has been around for decades its a bit naive to think it will have any affect now.
    The activities of the Koch Bros - a sort of upmarket Ashcroft - can well spur support rather than drain it.
    I'm still waiting for release of the tape where Michelle Obama slams 'whitey'!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    It's interesting that eight years of a black President don't seem to have done anything to reduce race as an issue in the US.
    I wonder if this is blowblack over the Confederate Flag issue.
    In part. One poll I read suggested 60% of White voters in the former Confederacy were opposed to opposed to removal of the Confederate flag from State Houses, but interestingly, so also were 40% of white voters from the rest of the USA.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    Trump leads Florida

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

    Virginia is massively for Hillary.

    Trump levelish, but rising in PA.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

    NC barely HRC.

    It is very very tight.
    And the Donald hasn't even started on Clinton...
    Then again, Clinton hasn't started on him.
  • Sean_F said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    It's interesting that eight years of a black President don't seem to have done anything to reduce race as an issue in the US.
    I wonder if this is blowblack over the Confederate Flag issue.
    In part. One poll I read suggested 60% of White voters in the former Confederacy were opposed to opposed to removal of the Confederate flag from State Houses, but interestingly, so also were 40% of white voters from the rest of the USA.

    It's hard to overstate just how central race is to US politics.

  • Poor, stupid, racists thickos obsessed with immigration fall for a hoax, say it ain't so?

    Britain First Falls For Spoof Queen Twitter Account

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9315530?1456407873
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Wanderer said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The problem for the Democrats is that, for all the (valid) talk of how more ethnically diverse the US is becoming, the crucial swing states for now still have higher than average numbers of the white working-class. In all of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the WWC population is above the national average.

    The only major swing states with a lower-than-average WWC population are Florida and Virginia.

    In particular, even if the Hispanics swing more heavily to the Democrats, the problem is they are quite "inefficiently distributed" in terms of the Electoral College: two of the biggest Hispanic populations are in California and Texas, but that's no good in terms of getting extra Electoral College votes since the former is already a lock for the Democrats and the latter is safe for the Republicans.

    Trump leads Florida

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

    Virginia is massively for Hillary.

    Trump levelish, but rising in PA.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

    NC barely HRC.

    It is very very tight.
    And the Donald hasn't even started on Clinton...
    Then again, Clinton hasn't started on him.
    Trump will murder her - he doesn't pull punches or have to resort to political correctness.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    Crickey some people really do get upset over very little. I presume the same people who are signing that would never criticise that fact Cameron went to Eton or poke fun at pictures showing him wearing "funny" getup when he was Oxford?

    I get more upset by those that sympathise with terrorists or send us to war based upon a lie.
    You'd think that whoever drew up that petition would have spell checked 'Eaton' too, and dropped the extra 'a'.
  • weejonnie said:

    tpfkar said:

    Once he's got the nomination sown up, he'll pivot back to sanity / centre as fast as he can.
    How many of the 49% will take another look at him?
    My book hopes that a large number will - bright bright green on Trump

    A Trump presidency would surely run on the basis of how he feels each morning when he wakes up, A good, mellow night's sleep would be fine. But a tricky night might be the prelude to more irrational days.

    Whwreas Obama's presidency depends on whether he shot above or below 80 on the golf course the day before.
    Is Obama an emotional sports player now?? I thought he was a cerebral college professor who couldn't connect with people??
  • I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    If I were Corbyn or one of his supporters I would be delighted by what Cameron said yesterday.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    weejonnie said:

    tpfkar said:

    Once he's got the nomination sown up, he'll pivot back to sanity / centre as fast as he can.
    How many of the 49% will take another look at him?
    My book hopes that a large number will - bright bright green on Trump

    A Trump presidency would surely run on the basis of how he feels each morning when he wakes up, A good, mellow night's sleep would be fine. But a tricky night might be the prelude to more irrational days.

    Whwreas Obama's presidency depends on whether he shot above or below 80 on the golf course the day before.
    Is Obama an emotional sports player now?? I thought he was a cerebral college professor who couldn't connect with people??
    If Obama doesn't play golf to win or better himself then he hasn't the drive to be an effective POTUS.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    Poor, stupid, racists thickos obsessed with immigration fall for a hoax, say it ain't so?

    Britain First Falls For Spoof Queen Twitter Account

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9315530?1456407873

    It would be good if it really was the Queen.
  • Poor, stupid, racists thickos obsessed with immigration fall for a hoax, say it ain't so?

    Britain First Falls For Spoof Queen Twitter Account

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9315530?1456407873

    That twitter feed is very funny.
  • watford30 said:

    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    Crickey some people really do get upset over very little. I presume the same people who are signing that would never criticise that fact Cameron went to Eton or poke fun at pictures showing him wearing "funny" getup when he was Oxford?

    I get more upset by those that sympathise with terrorists or send us to war based upon a lie.
    You'd think that whoever drew up that petition would have spell checked 'Eaton' too, and dropped the extra 'a'.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eaton
  • Poor, stupid, racists thickos obsessed with immigration fall for a hoax, say it ain't so?

    Britain First Falls For Spoof Queen Twitter Account

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9315530?1456407873

    That twitter feed is very funny.
    It is. It does crack me up all the time.
  • Can you bet on the outcome (red/blue) of states in the POTUS race?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Alex Wickham
    Well this is pretty grim. Jim'll Fix It staffer's account of the BBC in the 70s: https://t.co/hYcprH8Rfw https://t.co/i0EQxEpokn
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,418
    edited February 2016

    Poor, stupid, racists thickos obsessed with immigration fall for a hoax, say it ain't so?

    Britain First Falls For Spoof Queen Twitter Account

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9315530?1456407873

    That twitter feed is very funny.
    It is. It does crack me up all the time.

    1 second ago
    Elizabeth Windsor @Queen_UK
    Gained a new fan today - someone calling himself "The Screaming Eagles".

  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    edited February 2016
    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    tpfkar said:

    Once he's got the nomination sown up, he'll pivot back to sanity / centre as fast as he can.
    How many of the 49% will take another look at him?
    My book hopes that a large number will - bright bright green on Trump

    A Trump presidency would surely run on the basis of how he feels each morning when he wakes up, A good, mellow night's sleep would be fine. But a tricky night might be the prelude to more irrational days.

    Whwreas Obama's presidency depends on whether he shot above or below 80 on the golf course the day before.
    Is Obama an emotional sports player now?? I thought he was a cerebral college professor who couldn't connect with people??
    If Obama doesn't play golf to win or better himself then he hasn't the drive to be an effective POTUS.
    So the criticism is that he don't play golf for the right reasons??
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is he a new one?

    MP for Daventry and former East Midlands MEP Chris Heaton-Harris will vote for the UK to Leave the European Union. https://t.co/ZyoGTyHh7m
  • Is he a new one?

    MP for Daventry and former East Midlands MEP Chris Heaton-Harris will vote for the UK to Leave the European Union. https://t.co/ZyoGTyHh7m

    2010 intake.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
    The BBC a few months ago did a documentary on the current day KKK, was amusing and alarming in equal measure.

    We're not talking about the brightest bulbs in the chandelier
    Was that the one where their outfits were made from polyester? Not the smartest choice of material when carrying lit torches around and burning crosses.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I'd urge some caution on PBers placing too much reliance on Clinton/Trump nationwide and state polling during the nomination phase.

    Obama had some poor poll numbers in swing states at this stage in 08 and bagged the lot plus North Carolina and Indiana.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    For someone in Trump's position to win the Republican nomination from a standing start, he would need a campaign that created huge media visibility and galvanised support as a maverick and outsider; there's no way he could use the "establishment" tag to win and lack of media visibility is invariably fatal for any candidate, let alone an outsider.

    His campaign has been perfect for this. This is Phase 1.

    For a Republican candidate to win the Presidency, he or she needs to win swing voters and uncommitted voters. This is Phase 2. In addition, there's nowhere else for his current supporters to go, so all he needs to do to hang on to them after the nomination is secured (assuming it is) is to ensure they either have enough belief that "he's just saying those things" when he appeals to the demographics needed for Phase 2, or at least not turn them off enough to make them sit on their hands.

    The acid question will be if he can pull off that shameless screeching handbrake turn successfully. I find it hard to see how to do it, but given his record to date, I really can't say he won't pull it off. At the very least, it'll be interesting to watch the attempt.
  • Is he a new one?

    MP for Daventry and former East Midlands MEP Chris Heaton-Harris will vote for the UK to Leave the European Union. https://t.co/ZyoGTyHh7m

    2010 intake.
    Surprised it has taken him this long to make this announcement. When he was an MEP he was a very vocal BOO advocate on a par with Dan Hannan.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2016

    Alex Wickham
    Well this is pretty grim. Jim'll Fix It staffer's account of the BBC in the 70s: https://t.co/hYcprH8Rfw https://t.co/i0EQxEpokn

    Nobody knew anything ever...

    Top disc jockeys and executives at the BBC were caught up in a sex scandal more than 40 years ago.

    More than 40 years ago, the corporation’s top disc jockeys and executives were caught up in the most tawdry of allegations — that in return for playing their records, music companies hired prostitutes for them.

    The BBC launched an independent inquiry led by a QC (sound familiar) .The conclusions of that inquiry have remained locked away for four decades (sounds familiar).

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/jimmy-savile/9623109/Jimmy-Savile-Secret-of-BBCs-first-sex-scandal.html
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    In fact it's the petition which misunderstands the real function of PMQs which is to give the Opposition a chance to subject the Prime Minister to some chin music. Cameron (like any PM) would be delighted to replace it with a gentle net, which is what an exchange of straight factual questions and answers would amount to.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And those junior staffers rose through the ranks and became big wheels. And still did nothing.

    Alex Wickham
    Well this is pretty grim. Jim'll Fix It staffer's account of the BBC in the 70s: https://t.co/hYcprH8Rfw https://t.co/i0EQxEpokn

    Nobody knew anything ever...

    Top disc jockeys and executives at the BBC were caught up in a sex scandal more than 40 years ago.

    More than 40 years ago, the corporation’s top disc jockeys and executives were caught up in the most tawdry of allegations — that in return for playing their records, music companies hired prostitutes for them.

    The BBC launched an independent inquiry led by a QC (sound familiar) .The conclusions of that inquiry have remained locked away for four decades (sounds familiar).

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/jimmy-savile/9623109/Jimmy-Savile-Secret-of-BBCs-first-sex-scandal.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just realised that in the last 6 presidential elections the Republicans have won the popular vote once.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2016

    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    If I were Corbyn or one of his supporters I would be delighted by what Cameron said yesterday.

    .I am sure he would be but then Cornyn is a rope a dope strategist who is too stupid for words.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    38 degrees is basically a lefty organisation. I have known people who were prompted to write to their MP only for him to reply that the stated cause was entirely incorrect. An organisation for the unthinking mass.

  • JackW said:

    I'd urge some caution on PBers placing too much reliance on Clinton/Trump nationwide and state polling during the nomination phase.

    Obama had some poor poll numbers in swing states at this stage in 08 and bagged the lot plus North Carolina and Indiana.

    Obama also had charisma, freshness, a motivated African-American vote, hope and change.

    Hillary, by contrast, hasn't.

    I'd still make Hillary favourite but not by any great margin.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Pro_Rata said:

    Although I beat the New Thread notification, if anyone knows about the Swiss situation atm, I'd be grateful:

    Slightly off topic, can't find a clear current status on Google over how Swiss efforts to restrict free-movement are going, just snippets that don't give a full picture:

    https://www.eda.admin.ch/missions/mission-eu-brussels/en/home/key-issues/free-movement-persons.html

    Other than the above, which doesn't seem totally up to date, I've seen something about a 2017 deadline on the current bilateral deals, and something about EU early in 2015 not wanting to enter negotiation on free-movement.

    Are Switzerland likely to withdraw from EFTA and renegotiate static trade deals?

    Any relevance to the options Britain are likely to have available post any Brexit?

    As I understanhd it, the Swiss government is inclined to recommend a fresh vote to withdraw their objections to free movement (which only passed narrowly) but it's against the Swiss tradition to simply ask for a revote, so they're searching for some sort of middle ground. No decisions yet.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    If I were Corbyn or one of his supporters I would be delighted by what Cameron said yesterday.

    I don't think Cameron's jibe came across well. It was one of those odd situations in which one agrees with what someone says (Corbyn certainly does look a state and should sing the national anthem) but one still doesn't think they should have said it. That was my reaction anyway.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Alistair said:

    Just realised that in the last 6 presidential elections the Republicans have won the popular vote once.

    Time for a regression to the mean...
  • JackW said:

    I'd urge some caution on PBers placing too much reliance on Clinton/Trump nationwide and state polling during the nomination phase.

    Obama had some poor poll numbers in swing states at this stage in 08 and bagged the lot plus North Carolina and Indiana.

    Obama also had charisma, freshness, a motivated African-American vote, hope and change.

    Hillary, by contrast, hasn't.

    I'd still make Hillary favourite but not by any great margin.
    But Trump's birther nonsense will send African Americans strongly to her side.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944
    Alistair said:

    Just realised that in the last 6 presidential elections the Republicans have won the popular vote once.

    And in the previous six, the Democrats only won it once.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited February 2016
    JackW said:

    I'd urge some caution on PBers placing too much reliance on Clinton/Trump nationwide and state polling during the nomination phase.

    Obama had some poor poll numbers in swing states at this stage in 08 and bagged the lot plus North Carolina and Indiana.

    I'd have thought that particular bit of comparison was better for the Donald....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
    The BBC a few months ago did a documentary on the current day KKK, was amusing and alarming in equal measure.

    We're not talking about the brightest bulbs in the chandelier
    Was that the one where their outfits were made from polyester? Not the smartest choice of material when carrying lit torches around and burning crosses.
    There are dozens of different Klans now, most of them comprising one man and his dog. The Klans are generally regarded as a joke by the more hardline groups, such as the Aryan Brotherhood.
  • I've been asked to sign this petition

    Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs.....

    ....Why is this important?

    Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary 2016, underlined what a farce it has become. The Prime Minister has now fallen so low as to mock the way people dress. Although this may be common behaviour on the playing fields of Eaton, it completely debases his high office and our great country.

    Despite some wonderful innovations from the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, the Prime Ministers behaviour has worsened, and he continues as he did in 2010 to not answer straight questions to which the British public deserve straight answers. There seens to be a misconception from the Prime Minster that PMQs is a time for levity whereas it performs an essential constitutional function for British citizens to get information directly from the Prime Minister. In short it is time the Prime Minister grew up and lived up to his responsibilities to the people of Great Britain.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/improve-the-conduct-of-the-prime-minister-at-pmqs?bucket=&source=twitter-share-button

    I do love a nice balanced neutral petition.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    We've discussed quite a few bits of this poll of Labour members, but it's really an anorak's dream, worth looking at in detail if you're interested - e.g. breaking down who supporters of JC and the ABC candidates would go for now.

    http://election-data.co.uk/#/

    I agree with Southam (a sadly rare event these days) that Jeremy's team were chuffed by the "what my mother says" thing - indeed they've posted the exchange on social media. Cameron's remark was one of those snappy Westminster snarks that goes down big with insiders but makes the wider public recoil. "Serious Oppo leader talking about the NHS vs the PM dodging into talking about his mum and how people ought to dress".
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Can you bet on the outcome (red/blue) of states in the POTUS race?

    Those markets will be put up soon enough. Anyone know when?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    RodCrosby said:

    Alistair said:

    Just realised that in the last 6 presidential elections the Republicans have won the popular vote once.

    Time for a regression to the mean...
    Prior to 1997, Labour had only won the popular vote once out of the past seven elections.
  • MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
    The BBC a few months ago did a documentary on the current day KKK, was amusing and alarming in equal measure.

    We're not talking about the brightest bulbs in the chandelier
    Was that the one where their outfits were made from polyester? Not the smartest choice of material when carrying lit torches around and burning crosses.
    Yup. They had some very poor knowledge of history.
  • JackW said:

    I'd urge some caution on PBers placing too much reliance on Clinton/Trump nationwide and state polling during the nomination phase.

    Obama had some poor poll numbers in swing states at this stage in 08 and bagged the lot plus North Carolina and Indiana.

    Obama also had charisma, freshness, a motivated African-American vote, hope and change.

    Hillary, by contrast, hasn't.

    I'd still make Hillary favourite but not by any great margin.
    But Trump's birther nonsense will send African Americans strongly to her side.
    Why?

    African-Americans are largely already on her side. Her problem is not that they might vote for Trump; her problem is that a lot of those who voted for Obama might not vote for anyone.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    JackW said:

    I'd urge some caution on PBers placing too much reliance on Clinton/Trump nationwide and state polling during the nomination phase.

    Obama had some poor poll numbers in swing states at this stage in 08 and bagged the lot plus North Carolina and Indiana.

    Obama also had charisma, freshness, a motivated African-American vote, hope and change.

    Hillary, by contrast, hasn't.

    I'd still make Hillary favourite but not by any great margin.
    But Trump's birther nonsense will send African Americans strongly to her side.
    He's quite catholic in who he smites as not being eligible...
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    NPXMPX2..The PMS answer was to a question from a Labour Backbencher and was not in any way reLated to a serious question from Corbyn..they both got what they deserved..if you cant take it then STFU...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    I'd urge some caution on PBers placing too much reliance on Clinton/Trump nationwide and state polling during the nomination phase.

    Obama had some poor poll numbers in swing states at this stage in 08 and bagged the lot plus North Carolina and Indiana.

    Obama also had charisma, freshness, a motivated African-American vote, hope and change.

    Hillary, by contrast, hasn't.

    I'd still make Hillary favourite but not by any great margin.
    Obama had all those but that didn't stop his early poll numbers being worrying for his team.

    Obama also had poor scores throughout his terms with white working class where Hilary scored well in the primaries.

    Clinton and Trump both have plenty of baggage but the Trumpster has so much excess baggage that Ryan Air would be salivating at the prospect.

    Presently I don't see any Obama 2012 state in the Trump column.

  • Tony Blackburn....

    “I have listened to what has been said by Tony Hall and others today in connection with the publication of the Dame Janet Smith Report.

    “I repeat what I told Dame Janet when I voluntary gave evidence to assist her and the BBC. What I said in my earlier statement regarding the alleged meetings with Brian Neill QC and Bill Cotton Junior 45 years ago still stands.

    “Given Dame Janet Smith’s concerns of a culture of fear in coming forward at the BBC, the fact that I have been scapegoated for giving my honest account and best recollections of those events 45 years ago - which I felt was a whitewash - what whistleblower at the BBC would ever come forward when they see the way they have hung me out to dry.

    “Sadly today’s news agenda should have been about the survivors of abuse carried out within the BBC but, by sacking me, they have managed to take the focus off those who have suffered so much.

    “My lawyers are now considering all statements made by the BBC about me today and we will be taking action.”
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
    The BBC a few months ago did a documentary on the current day KKK, was amusing and alarming in equal measure.

    We're not talking about the brightest bulbs in the chandelier
    Was that the one where their outfits were made from polyester? Not the smartest choice of material when carrying lit torches around and burning crosses.
    Yup. They had some very poor knowledge of history.
    Some of them have quite fetching green hoods. Elmore Leonard called them "the coneheads' Spring collection."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Good Texas poll out for Hillary today.

    Clinton 61 - Sanders 29.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Josiensor: Local reports suggest pro-Kurdish Glasgow MP @NatalieMcGarry has been detained upon her arrival in Diyarbakir, Turkey
  • Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The scariest Trump polling was around 20% of Trump supporters were upset the confederacy lost the civil war.

    20% also believed the slaves should not have been freed, and 17% "weren't sure"...
    That's very funny.
    Not sure if funny is the word.

    The sad thing is many of these people probably do know their history, they do know what the South was, and yet they still support it over the union.

    Race relations in the US appear to be going sharply backwards.
    I think "weren't sure" is funny. How can you not be sure ffs?
    I'm not sure to be honest :lol:
    It's those who think they shouldn't have been freed, but know how bad that sounds so aren't sure of trusting their own opinion. The others either don't realise it sounds bad or don't care.
    The first step in being a white supremacist loony is to get over worrying about how bad it sounds.
    The BBC a few months ago did a documentary on the current day KKK, was amusing and alarming in equal measure.

    We're not talking about the brightest bulbs in the chandelier
    Was that the one where their outfits were made from polyester? Not the smartest choice of material when carrying lit torches around and burning crosses.
    Yup. They had some very poor knowledge of history.
    Some of them have quite fetching green hoods. Elmore Leonard called them "the coneheads' Spring collection."
    You weren't sure if they were a spoof.

    Obama is a secret Muslim doing the bidding of the Jews was the sort of thing you'd hear.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Here the 2 most recent national polls that are not Fox News polls:

    Trump 45
    Hillary 43

    Trump 43
    Hillary 44

    Favourability numbers
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us02182016_Urpfd42.pdf

    Hillary 37/58
    Trump 37/57

    Scared/Enthusiastic by party
    http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/2_17_2016_tables.pdf

    Dem
    Hillary 8/36
    Trump 62/4

    Rep
    Hillary 2/60
    Trump 17/28

    Ind
    Hillary 35/5
    Trump 33/16

    Latest Ohio polls

    Trump 39
    Hillary 37

    http://www.bw.edu/Assets/stories/2016/ToplineReport_Ohio Election Poll_Feb24-FINALx.pdf

    Trump 44
    Hillary 42

    Favourables
    Trump 35/59
    Hillary 37/57

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2326

    The key for Trump's performance is that independents dislike Hillary more than him, although republicans are not comfortable with him.
    My estimate is that he will lose 20% Romney voters to minor parties or abstention and around 5% to Hillary, Hillary will lose 10% Obama voters to minor parties or abstention and 10% to Trump.

    That would close the gap from 4 points to 3 points and it will be determined by what new voters that come in play and geographically.
    The geographical playground then matters, Trump could lose a lot of die hard purists in areas like Kansas or Nebraska and it would not hurt him, Hillary can pile a lot of hispanic votes in California and it won't do her any good.

  • Scott_P said:

    @Josiensor: Local reports suggest pro-Kurdish Glasgow MP @NatalieMcGarry has been detained upon her arrival in Diyarbakir, Turkey

    Local journalists say she was detained in the Sur district of Diyarbakir by Turkish Special Forces.
This discussion has been closed.