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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes
Ipsos-MORI polled the public in November 2014 asking whether David Cameron would get a good deal for Britain in Europe. 69% said that they were either not at all confident or not very confident that he would do. Only 26% were either fairly confident or very confident.
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Going back in time: Immigration/EU
49 / 10
41 / 10
38 / 9.5
36 / 7
Although if you picked the first and last pairs.......
As to 'myths' - they defy logical dismissal.......(I did my MA on the role of myths in cinematic history...)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbZbZEMXEAA1lgj.png
Cheers Mr Meeks - Can I be the first to say: Lies, damned lies, and statistics"
I cannot see this being a very edifying 6 months politically.
a bit light on client work at the moment Alistair ?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=450656551
Where's the evidence for Tracey Crouch, Nus Ghani, Robert Jenrick, Charlotte Leslie, Kit Malthouse, Caroline Noakes (daughter of big eu-phile) being for Out? I haven't googled it.
The note next to Mark Pritchard's name is funny. I'm surprised if James Wharton is still on the fence; I'd have thought he'd be for Out.
However, I do think a majority of the non-payroll vote will declare for Leave, just.
I need to write to Ranil Jayawardena (my local MP, who Dan Hannan has a lot of time for and is a huge patriot) if he hasn't declared yet.
My best is around 110-120 Tory MPs publicly declaring for Leave.
Would be somewhat surprised but delighted if he ends up in the OUT column.
http://tinyurl.com/ho4ohq5
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g3iiy275ch/ScotlandInUnion_160212_WebsiteV2.pdf
It's gone over my head too. 99.9% of the public won't understand it either.
A negotiation for real reform would take much longer. Much much longer.
Well there's a difference between "not confident he will" and "confident he won't". Were there any polls which asked the question more directly?
Personally I don't like the "otherwise intelligent people" bit as the implication is that the writer is intelligent in every sphere, which is slightly CiF-ish.
Secondly, I might not like immigration and might think the EU was responsible. if I was a normal human being and not a political geek and someone then asked me for a poll about my concerns I would allocate precisely enough attention to it to register my views on immigration. I would then not need to elaborate for the pollsters' benefit my first derivative views, or bother to be consistent in my answers because it would be logical to do so. I might even lose interest in the poll altogether after that.
So sorry Alistair, but I don't buy it.
However we have been here before. Tony Blair gave away some of the hard won rebate under the understanding and agreement that CAP would be reformed. France amongst others is one of the great beneficiaries of CAP due to their farming systems. As far as I am aware little or nothing changed with CAP to any noticeable amount after the rebate was surrendered.
It will be the same this time. Precisely the same promises and deals and when everyone looks the other way it will be all back on the gravy train at Brussels. History repeats.
I can't remember a word of it myself.
harder to argue for the "better off now" part
"Cabinet sources have told the Telegraph they are confident they can find a way to keep Britain inside the EU with better terms of membership. Their plan involves:
Forcing Brussels to make “an explicit statement” that Britain will be kept out of any move towards a European superstate. This will require an exemption for the UK from the EU’s founding principle of “ever closer union”.
An “explicit statement” that the euro is not the official currency of the EU, making clear that Europe is a “multi-currency” union. Ministers want this declaration in order to protect the status of the pound sterling as a legitimate currency that will always exist.
A new “red card” system to bring power back from Brussels to Britain. This would give groups of national parliaments the power to stop unwanted directives being handed down and to scrap existing EU laws.
A new structure for the EU itself. The block of 28 nations must be reorganised to prevent the nine countries that are not in the eurozone being dominated by the 19 member states that are, with particular protections for the City of London"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11924603/David-Camerons-four-key-demands-to-remain-in-the-EU-revealed.html
Those that are opposed to the EU repeatedly demand that we must get back control of our borders. Whether they can in fact do that or not is a complicated issue connected to where we would go next if we vote to leave the EU but there is no question that it is one of Leave's driving forces that has helped the polls swing in their direction of late.
As a supporter of membership of the EEA I find all this a bit awkward because any controls brought in in that scenario will be extremely limited but to suggest that the next 5 months are not going to be dominated by the immigration debate, rightly or wrongly, is just silly.
Am I missing something? I can't recall anyone saying that the PM's deal being badly received was unexpected. I thought the accusation was that we were expecting the deal to be bad and that somehow this undermined the PM's efforts.
EDIT: That said, Sean F's point about the renegotiation being priced into the polls is a good one - I think it's fair to say that something's made the polls move towards leave in the last few weeks - Cameron's renegotiation has probably contributed to it.
There have been numerous reforms of the CAP in recent years and the various lakes and mountains of the 80s are now a distant memory. Much of the support still given to agriculture is focussed on matters other than production such as conservation.
On myth 2, the ITV poll from yesterday shows the top concern (at 53%) of all respondents voting on the EU was control of our borders and migration
Myths: confirmed.
In this area we have had Polish here since the late 1930's. They fled Poland on or before the German invasion to continue the fight from here. They helped build and then worked in local shadow factories throughout the war which made component parts for spitfires and there are road names now relating to that huge contribution. Some went home but many remained here after the war. I went to school with two Polish lads whose Grandfathers were amongst those that came over.
The local polish club they used still stands and is used to this day. The bar is adorned with photos of the men that came over and the Polish flags and military regimental flags they brought with them plus the factories they worked.
It Should be noted that the last military charge in battle by horse was the Polish mounted regiment who despite the odds and futility charged the German infantry which at the time were supported by Panzers. They also then formed spitfire squadrons during the Battle of Britain.
Who knows !
The 2015 Conservative Manifesto says this (together with my scorecard):
Real change in our relationship with the European Union FAILED
Our commitment to you:
For too long, your voice has been ignored on Europe. We will:
- give you a say over whether we should stay in or leave the EU, with an in-out referendum
by the end of 2017
- commit to keeping the pound and staying out of the Eurozone
- reform the workings of the EU, which is too big, too bossy and too bureaucratic FAILED
- reclaim power from Brussels on your behalf and safeguard British interests in the Single Market FAILED
back businesses to create jobs in Britain by completing ambitious trade deals and reducing red tape. FAILED

"after the election, we will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people whether they want to stay in the EU on this reformed basis or leave"
A new settlement for Britain in Europe. This is what the Prime Minister is being judged against. This is the bench-mark against which the Prime Minister's efforts are being judged. It is why the Prime Minister felt he had to insult our intelligence y lying that the deal he achieved was such a great more forward in our relations with the EU. And insulting our intelligence is why the media gave his efforts such a roasting.
Bear this manifesto commitment in mind when the final deal is unveiled. The only myth is that Cameron has achieved A New Settlement for Britain in Europe.
I have to say, though, that on the topic of the EU Mr Meeks is rapidly reaching the "must read" status of Mr Brind.
I wonder how much thought Cameron and his team put into how they would approach the referendum if they did win a majority? Maybe I'm being unfair, but given they weren't expecting to win a majority I don't think much thought went into the referendum.
When claims so patently absurd are made, I find myself thinking WTF? Reading them again, still thinking WTF and wondering what sort of nitwit came up with them.
Sorry MrD never meant to infer you did.
We also have a Polish shop and public signs in the local park are in Polish as well. The local surgery has an electronic booking system you have to self check in when you arrive for the appointment (very good it is too) . I do note that you can now select your language of choice on the screen by selecting one of the two flags shown , the Union Jack or the Polish flag.
Are people, who might otherwise advocate EEA membership, really going to leave because we give the daughter of a Romanian plumber £20/week vs the £3-odd they'd get if the plumber was in Romania?
(yes, I'm heading back over to In-waverer)
Edit: I still think Cam has misplayed this.
I think that the British army in 1939 was the only one with fully motorised transport. The German infantry relied very heavily on horse drawn transport. Ditto the Red Army, though they became heavily motorised by the end of the war, particularly with American trucks.
"I continue to believe that Mr Trump will not be president. And the reason is because I have a lot of faith in the American people," said Mr Obama
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35592948
But my employer is an exporter so that's a positive for me.
An interesting read.
Could I add Myth Number Three .... The population voted in 1975 for eventual political union as stated by Dr Palmer and one or two others on here.
They did not, they voted for an economic and trading bloc - as admitted by Chuka last night. He also believes that Dave's negotiations will prevent political union. Naïve, or political expediency?
Former presidents of the European Union have stated that political union is the eventual aim, and has always been. We were lied to in 1975 and I think forty years is a reasonable time to nurse a grievance.
I think that he should have had a proper 2 year renegotiation to allow the deal to be thrashed out in detail by proper negotiators and agreed by all parties before being ratified by all, with ratification in the UK contingent on a referendum. Either that or a referendum on existing terms. Cameron has managed a terrible muddle, with half-arsed renegotiations that have offended both Leavers and Remainers. An uncharacteristicly incompetent performance by him.
'With sabers drawn, about 600 Italian cavalrymen yelled out their traditional battle cry of “Savoia!” and galloped headlong toward 2,000 Soviet foot soldiers armed with machine guns and mortars. On August 23, 1942 (some sources say August 24), the cavalrymen—part of the Axis invasion of the Soviet Union during World War II— were attempting to close a gap that had opened up between the Italian and German armies along the Don River.'
http://tinyurl.com/ju2szaa
This article looks a little bit desperate I have to say...
I'm hearing PSOE + C coalition very close the announcement in Spain.
"How long before it becomes unreasonable?"
For politicians ... when the voters have forgotten their lies. I remember it well, and I was a Europhile in 1975. as were most people. The question was asked at the time and the questioners were dismissed as swivel-eyed conspiracy theorists. I too dismissed them as such.
In retrospect, the population was "unprepared" for the truth, so it happened on a piecemeal basis with the lie being perpetuated for forty years. These weren't evasions, these were direct lies. I'm not talking about political answers. If they are prepared to continually lie over that period (fair play to Chuka - although he wasn't born in 1975), why should we believe the project has suddenly been abandoned?
"At the beginning of the conflict, (WW2) Polish lancers purportedly attacked a German infantry battalion (but not tanks, as Nazi propaganda would have us believe) and suffered predictably disastrous results. "
It was with one of the French big players saying that political union and currency union were obviously necessary, but voters weren't ready for it.
If the EU doesn't want to address our legitimate concerns, that's their right. But it shifts the balance for me away from partnership to friendship - and from Remain to Leave.
It is true that it would have taken a lot to get me to vote Remain, but I'm not to blame for Cameron's feeble effort.
We have never had a referendum on the EU, as what existed in 1975 was the EEC.
I have just discovered that the EU is committed to equality as a core value, so perhaps the only surprise should be that any Tory or Kipper is prepared to support it.
If the EU had TRIED to enforce greater political or economic union, we would have told them where to get off.
If the EU had TRIED to enforce the UK's membership of the Euro, or of the banking union, we would have told them where to get off.
Same with a European Army. These aren't "wins" by Cameron. They are just the EU admitting where we won't need to tell them to "Fuck off!"
It is not the promised New Settlement for Britain in Europe.
It's *Chai* latte. A totally different drink - one, like many Indian drinks, is completely laced with sugar.
I occasionally have a small glass with a curry on a Sunday, but would never drink it in that quantity.
It's just a pressure group choosing the worst possible outcome to get headlines
As always blowed if I can find it now.
Public Health England has released a great new app that scans barcodes and translates these to teaspoons of sugar called Sugar Smart. It is both Apple and Android and scans barcodes. Have a play with it in your pantry. It can be quite alarming. It covers branded products much better than supermarkets own though.
On Myth 2, roughly half the population is worried about immigration and they correctly identify EU free movement as being part of it, so it makes many of those more sceptical about the EU as a second-order effect, not something they highlight when asked about main concerns, but an association that comes to mind when specifically asked about the EU. Alastair points out that people who are less intensely concerned and worry more or less about one or the other move in different directions, but that's not really the point. People who worry a lot about the EU are often strongly motivated by immigration concerns, and they are largely already intending to vote Leave. The fact that leaving may not actually change much regarding free movement hasn't really sunk in.
Alastair is however right that this is much less true of floating voters on the referendum, so Leave banging on about immigration may not be their best strategy to win those over.
By the way, I'm not sure why CD13 identifies me as saying that people voted for full union in 1975. I don't think I've ever said that, and in general I don't think most people vote with a full picture of anything, ever. It would probably be fair to say that people voted for a trading arrangement with the vague possibility that it would later evolve to become more integrated, which is pretty much what has happened.
I was against in 1975, by the way, for the same reasons as Corbyn is not wildly enthusiastc now - it's altogether too dominated by commercial interests, in my opinion, though I've come round to the EU as the (in my view) best practical option for us in our globalised world.
Not a healthy thing! Even 40 yrs later.