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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bush gets his mojo back in the most explosive GOP debate ye
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bush gets his mojo back in the most explosive GOP debate yet
Just caught up on the overnight GOP TV debate ahead of next weekend’s crucial South Carolina primary and what a humdinger it was. The 5.1 contenders still in the race (Carson is the 0.1) were at each other hammer and tongues right from the start. It made great TV.
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It was never going to be Bush, for the simple reason that even republicans hate the Bush family, it's not a coincidence that Jeb is the only one with negative favourable numbers inside the republican party that is still running.
Jeb can spend tens of millions in his campaign (and he already has) but won't get any votes (as he already discovered).
He's in it just to beat Rubio and prove he's the better of the two floridians.
2-0 down.
Aston Villa have had zero shots on target. Liverpool 4, leading to 2 goals. AV only 38% possession at home.
It was a GOP establishment audience though:
http://www.wyff4.com/news/loyal-supporters-of-gop-granted-tickets-to-debate-in-greenville/37950532
"Chad Groover, chairman of the Greenville County Republican party.
Groover said supporters who work hard for the party will be rewarded tickets."
"Groover said the Republican National Committee gives a lot of tickets to supporters. He said more are then allocated for the state party to distribute among the county chairs."
"Groover said he gave tickets to supporters, including elected officials, who work hard for the party."
I knew it the moment the debate started when the candidates were introduced, the only ones who got any cheering where Bush and Rubio.
So it was an audience of Bush-Rubio voters, Bush being cheered by his supporters can not be indicative of the wider reaction.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6901139/Terrorist-who-owned-footage-of-people-doing-sex-acts-on-horses-cleared.html
Linked to Corbyn and Lord Avebury.
But I don't doubt some wines and foods go better together than others. White wine and Rose with most fish, full-bodied reds with beef or venison, lighter reds with chicken, is not a bad rule of thumb.
I do find that Normandy cider goes very well with roast pork.
Oh, and Bulls Blood!
Like the Kennedies and the Roosevelts and the Nixons, that ship has sailed.
Even Hillary has issues getting the votes and Bill was the most popular president in modern history.
https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video;_ylt=A9mSs2PAl8BW3lUAKJxLBQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTB0ZTgxN3Q0BGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNwaXZz?p=rubio+cruz+debate&fr=mcafee&fr2=piv-web#id=7&vid=4a8281001185c4d16d624a906e2fe958&action=view
Kasich and Carson the only two not involved in a brawl!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_P._Bush
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy_III
Net favourability, parties. Con -14 ↑4, Lab -21 ↓5, UKIP -26 ↓1, Lib Dem -27 ↑10 Vs Mar 2015 ComRes @IndyOnSunday https://t.co/MhI3tFuREi
Sam Stein
CBS poll on SC
Trump: 42
Cruz: 20
Rubio: 15
Kasich: 9
RIP Eric Lubbock, 4th Baron Avebury. He was the Liberal victor at Orpington in 1962. A long a distinguished life, still attending the House of Lords regularly up until December.
There will now be a by-election for his hereditary seat in the House of Lords, with only hereditary LibDem peers entitled to vote.
Lib Dems, Winning Here!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Carolina_primary
The hostility was really funny - especially seanT randomly interjecting to rationalise and universalise his own homophobia.
Funny how peoples minds work sometimes.
Clinton 59%
Sanders 40%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
I have some Essencia for a very special occasion. It's magical stuff.
Liverpool finally work out how to beat a team wearing claret and blue.
But Corbyn isnt even getting this. The government is all over the place on many issues, yet its position is improving, and Labour is getting worse.
Is there a possibility that we will see no sustained (two successive labour party polls leads by a single pollster) labour lead for the whole of this parliament?
I think even Hague managed that, though it was in the context of the fuel strikes.
Politics in the UK is actually pretty tedious currently if you are on the centre left. There's no credible party to support and the EU referendum is a centre right/right issue that does not really engage us. Even in Scotland the debate is rather dull as independence is no longer a serious possibility now that everything the SNP claimed prior to the referendum has been shown to be wrong.
Good second half by England. Italy are actually pretty solid, but they still lack fitness and when they get a bit behind (a couple of scores) they seem to lose all self-belief.
They could yet trouble Ireland and Wales.
If you had me at gunpoint, i'd go;
Without Bloomberg, 20% perhaps?
With Bloomberg, 50%?
I upped my position slightly on Cruz for the nomination and laid off some Cruz POTUS - I think the implied 6/4 or ~40% market approximation is on the high side, although IMO, he's still value for the nomination @ 7/1.
If she loses Nevada that could be a tipping point.
But here are the changes.
Trump +2
Cruz -1
Rubio +2
Kasich +7
Bush -2
Carson -3
Ironic that in the thread titled "Bush gets Mojo back" he's level with Carson for dead last at 6% in S.Carolina.
Hillary -1
Sanders +2
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35571438
Maureen can you get the pull out bed out, I think I need a nap....is not how it went down for "Carry on Caravaning" Jahadi special bonus edition.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/
"Thirty-two percent of these debate watchers say Marco Rubio won the debate, beating out Donald Trump (24 percent) and John Kasich (19 percent), who are ranked second and third, respectively. Further down on the list are Ted Cruz (12 percent), Ben Carson (8 percent), and Jeb Bush (5 percent)."
"Donald Trump has been leading national polls for months, and he is seen by Republican and independent debate watchers as the most likely -- with 42 percent -- of the six candidates to win in November should he get the nomination. But Marco Rubio comes in second (22 percent), beating out Ted Cruz (14 percent) by eight points."
"But when it comes to the candidate who is best prepared to be President, Republicans and independent debate watchers choose John Kasich first (22 percent), just edging out Donald Trump (20 percent) by two points."
"Donald Trump is the clear leader on values. Twenty-seven percent of Republicans and independents who watched the debate pick Trump as the candidate who most shares their values, with Ben Carson and Marco Rubio tied for second place, each with 16 percent. Rubio does better than Kasich among Republicans, while Kasich does better than Rubio among independents.
"Still, Donald Trump enjoys a strong leading position on all the issues measured in this poll: the economy, immigration, terrorism, and bringing needed change. Rubio comes in second - ahead of Cruz - on immigration. Kasich comes in second on the economy and jobs."
Next time OGH makes a thread with the title "Bush gets Mojo back" he should think twice.
Nearly as accurate as your referendum predictions...
Club v. country will always be an issue for England, however, as it is for France. Wales bat way above their weight because the national team is really all that matters these days.
The comback is on. Cromwell is out lord and saviour, PBTOTY guaranteed.
He doesn't address any of the actual points Trump made about 9/11 or the Iraq war 'lies'. He just goes on about his family.
And in a two way race a single vote counts for two, so it's easier to flip it.
Sanders is chipping Hillary's lead everyday, but he needs to continue and at a sufficient rate, time is his enemy and in Iowa he was a day or two short from winning.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html
Both polls are of just 400 voters, though.
However given it was muppets like Scottp ,they still whinge on about SNPBAD, unbelievable how stupid they are.
So Bush will drop out, but he has too few votes in Nevada and nationally to boost Rubio anyway higher than 3rd.
Yes, he's aggressive, disrespectful and rude, constantly interrupting Bush, but he does cut through and get his point across forcefully.
You're welcome
Once that's achieved you can add a layer of enjoyment by matching characteristics (sweet dessert wine with dessert), which lessens the effect of both, or contrasting them (jammy Rose with salty Chinese food), which enhances the effect of both.
Wine 'snobbery', like Scotch whisky snobbery, or political betting snobbery, is as silly or otherwise as the people who are doing the snobbery. At its best it's people enjoying these things at a high level and welcoming others to do the same; at its worst its people trying to use it as a way to mark out their social superiority - and in my experience those people are often the people who know least and stick to some tried and trusted aphorisms or bandwagoning on to things like claiming to hate Chardonnay.
Bush comes across as the chief apologist for a republican establishment trying every last trick in the book to stop Trump and Cruz.
And let's face it, Bush brought his family into the campaign. He put his family on the stump, and so they are fair game.
The Yoons on here are getting lazy and repetitive, they're constantly failing the transparent trolling test (while often getting hooked themselves).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKX1v0aiXIo
TURNIP
TURNIP
TURNIP
TURNIP
TURNIP
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Everyone knows that Bush W. was a disaster of historical proportions for america, but Trump is the only one who dares to say it and in the face of the Bush family.
We kinda see how he would campaign against Hillary.
In fact, wasn;t much of 9/11 actually planned during Clinton's presidency?
Thanks. The other question I have is how can the conservatives be so far ahead when they are clearly split down the middle on the referendum??
If it becomes a nasty, bitter, blue on blue attack with personal attacks on each other then the Tories will be seen as divided.
Besides given how divided Labour is, the Tories Europe divisions must seem rather quaint.
That's Greek inflation for you.
I admired Cameron and he's pissed that away by telling lies of almost Blairish proportions.
Oh, and everyone else is split on everything else?
The same point about momentum applies equally well, if not more so, for the GOP.
I don't really agree with Mike's 5.1 candidate assessment; it's more 4+2. The question is, who will be left standing after SC?
Trump, obviously; Cruz, as the leading non-Trump; Rubio, as the leading candidate that the establishment could be reasonably happy with; and Bush, because he has the money. Kasich and Carson, by contrast, could both be eliminated by a bad result. I've no idea why Carson is still in the race at all, while Kasich needs to follow up on NH (which, to be fair, the poll gives some evidence of him doing). However, if he can't then he's in no position to fight on.
What would be interesting would be if only Carson dropped out. More of his votes should go to Cruz than anywhere else, which would tend even more towards a two-horse race, with Cruz closing on Trump and pulling further clear of the field. For that reason, I can see a lot of establishment pressure being put on Kasich if Bush outpolls him.