Any thoughts on the PL betting? As a Spurs fan I find it hard to be objective, on betfair they're 5/1, Arsenal around 9/4 despite that lot still to visit WHL. I keep writing Leicester off, City seem to have shot themselves in the foot.
As an Arsenal fan I couldn't bring myself to do it but I thought about backing Spurs as long ago as November. They are the most complete team and seem to be playing really well.
I'm generally quite good at knowing when Arsenal are likely to trip up, and I might regret this, but I don't think Sunday will be one of them. That said, I think Leicester have a great chance to win it. What will be critical for them is putting away the average teams over the next few weeks.
A lot of people in the betting game use analytics (shots on target/quality of chance created/xG) as a big pointer towards future performance. Currently Arsenal are streets ahead, with Leicester average and Spurs poor.. so if they are right, the Arsenal are due to give a few good hidings while the others may regress
Over the last six years Wenger has turned Arsenal into an efficient but fragile team. We used boss games but be profligate in front of goal. Today we win games without looking especially good.
Spurs, on the other hand, have become a team that bosses games. Their midfield suffocates the opposition and gives them no room to move. But, as you say, they can struggle to turn that dominance into 3 points. They battered us at the Emirates, yet we could have won. And they should have won at Goodison Park.
I hope you're right and that we'll come good, but I just don't think we're good enough. We make too many stupid mistakes and if the opposition press we just can't handle it.
Not my opinion particularly, just what the underlying stats from the games show
As an aside, there's a lot of evidence that the GM Zafira diesel also had a defeat device
Why is everyone sitting on damning evidence just to screw consumers? Do we have to track what the EU commissioners use in their daily lives to see what products are safe?
I don't know if said model is sold in Europe, this is from a leaked study in the US
Apparently Gibralter will be voting in the EU referendum despite not being part of the UK.
Commonwealth citizens resident in Gibraltar don’t normally get the chance to vote in Westminster elections as no British Overseas Territories are represented in Parliament. However, unlike the other British Overseas Territories, Gibraltar is a part of the European Union, and therefore they will be allowed to have a say in the outcome.
The ridiculous thing is that my sister-in-law who has lived here nigh on 60 years has never bothered to get a British passport to go with her Italian one won't be able to vote.
Evening all.
Tis a bit of an odd inconsistency Mr_A. – The justification for Gibraltar getting the vote is that they partake in European elections as part of the South West of England constituency, therefore there is precedent for Gibraltar to be involved with the UK at a European level, - and yet UK resident foreign nationals from within the EU are able to vote in the European elections but are not allowed the referendum vote. – Mrs SSC is not impressed.
with Amazon backing, this might be something to watch. I might even wipe the dust off my old 3D assets (if I can convert them, that is...)
It's a trap to get you locked into an AWS backend. Far better to go for UnrealEngine or Unity - especially as they have huge levels of suport and a community around them.
Hmmm. I haven't looked deeply into their offer, but there are two advantages, especially for small companies / teams.
Firstly, server infrastructure is a hassle. Amazon AWS works, is scalable and available virtually everywhere in the world. You would not have to maintain servers yourself, which can cost a great deal.
Secondly, Amazon are really good at networking and netcode (yucky term). Networking is complex, and experts capable of designing, creating or maintaining systems and code with response times suitable for modern games are not massively common. When you touch networking code there should be a sign: "there be dragons."
Yes, this system ties you down to Amazon, but it would also relieve a young company of a great deal of hassle, especially if they wanted a worldwide market.
I'm actually surprised MS have signed onto this, given their alternative cloud service.
If I was running / advising a company who had a great idea for an online game, it would certainly push Cryengine up the list of potential engines as it has the potential of removing a heck of a lot of work, effort and investment. Depending, of course, on the licence.
A downside is that if everyone else uses it, it'll be harder to differentiate your product. But that's why you have good designers ...
Apparently Gibralter will be voting in the EU referendum despite not being part of the UK.
Commonwealth citizens resident in Gibraltar don’t normally get the chance to vote in Westminster elections as no British Overseas Territories are represented in Parliament. However, unlike the other British Overseas Territories, Gibraltar is a part of the European Union, and therefore they will be allowed to have a say in the outcome.
The ridiculous thing is that my sister-in-law who has lived here nigh on 60 years has never bothered to get a British passport to go with her Italian one won't be able to vote.
Evening all.
Tis a bit of an odd inconsistency Mr_A. – The justification for Gibraltar getting the vote is that they partake in European elections as part of the South West of England constituency, therefore there is precedent for Gibraltar to be involved with the UK at a European level, - and yet UK resident foreign nationals from within the EU are able to vote in the European elections but are not allowed the referendum vote. – Mrs SSC is not impressed.
It is ridiculous. Either the franchise is based on the Parliamentary elections or it is based on the Euro Elections. You can't pick and choose based on which constituency you want in.
If the 38 voters were "random" we could expect the above with 95% confidence.
Wonder if any of the candidates will break this
(Cruz is most likely I guess as his voters are more likely to be rural and thus over-represented in a hamlet sample)
There are a lot of Sanders voters who think that Sanders is safe and are switching to Kasich to defeat Trump in N.H.
Right now I think Kasich will come very close to Trump, and Hillary is going to come very close to Sanders.
Any sauce for that snippet ?
CNN. They interviewed a lot of Sanders voters who said they will be switching to Kasich.
See my post from yesterday where I pointed out that there was a way for Kasich to beat Trump, which would rely on Trump's polling numbers to overstate his voters, and for independents to vote primarily in the GOP primary for Kasich.
If the 38 voters were "random" we could expect the above with 95% confidence.
Wonder if any of the candidates will break this
(Cruz is most likely I guess as his voters are more likely to be rural and thus over-represented in a hamlet sample)
There are a lot of Sanders voters who think that Sanders is safe and are switching to Kasich to defeat Trump in N.H.
Right now I think Kasich will come very close to Trump, and Hillary is going to come very close to Sanders.
In a FPTP vote it's always safest to vote for your preferred candidate. And if there are two or more seats, and you've any doubt, just vote for one candidate.. Part of the problem with that childish system.
@Speedy - I think it's basically just speculation at this stage. No one really knows anything.
I fell for this in May last year when I started to lay off on Con most seats off the back of rumours of 'very high turnout' and swarms of Labour activists in their target marginal seats.
@Speedy - I think it's basically just speculation at this stage. No one really knows anything.
I fell for this in May last year when I started to lay off on Con most seats off the back of rumours of 'very high turnout' and swarms of Labour activists in their target marginal seats.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
And there is the snafu that democrat voters can vote in the republican primary as long as they are not registered democrats, Kasich as the only democrat running in the republican primary will be the main benefactor of any switch.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
If Kasich beats Trump it will call very seriously Trump's campaign in question. However if Rubio performs pretty badly he will also be hit, if he finishes behind Bush it will be terminal for him.
So at the extreme you can see both Rubio and Trump being finished off, which leaves of course Cruz to pick up the debris. If Rubio and Trump are out, Cruz is the main benefactor, since Kasich and Bush are way too unpopular with republicans and too weak to challenge him at this early point, Kasich is actually a democrat.
Results set to flood in at midnight London time (I did a mistake yesterday counting time zones) when most precincts close, and exit polls to be published at 1 AM. That's less than 7 hours from now.
Final Overtime Politics New Hampshire poll also released today
GOP Donald Trump – 29% Marco Rubio – 18% John Kasich – 14% Ted Cruz – 11% Jeb Bush – 8% Chris Christie – 5% Ben Carson – 5% Carly Fiorina – 3% Other – 2% Undecided – 5%
Trump leads amongst 18-30s, 31-45s and 60+ but ties Kasich amongst those aged 46-59. Trump leads with whites and Asians, Carson with blacks, Rubio and Bush with Hispanics
Democrats
Sanders 55% Clinton 41%
Sanders leads in every age group, though Hillary leads with minorities
Apparently Gibralter will be voting in the EU referendum despite not being part of the UK.
Commonwealth citizens resident in Gibraltar don’t normally get the chance to vote in Westminster elections as no British Overseas Territories are represented in Parliament. However, unlike the other British Overseas Territories, Gibraltar is a part of the European Union, and therefore they will be allowed to have a say in the outcome.
The ridiculous thing is that my sister-in-law who has lived here nigh on 60 years has never bothered to get a British passport to go with her Italian one won't be able to vote.
Evening all.
Tis a bit of an odd inconsistency Mr_A. – The justification for Gibraltar getting the vote is that they partake in European elections as part of the South West of England constituency, therefore there is precedent for Gibraltar to be involved with the UK at a European level, - and yet UK resident foreign nationals from within the EU are able to vote in the European elections but are not allowed the referendum vote. – Mrs SSC is not impressed.
It is ridiculous. Either the franchise is based on the Parliamentary elections or it is based on the Euro Elections. You can't pick and choose based on which constituency you want in.
I'm guessing the reason for this is that of we vote to Leave, then Gibraltar leaves the EU too. And it seems a bit undemocratic to not allow them a vote.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
If Kasich beats Trump it will call very seriously Trump's campaign in question. However if Rubio performs pretty badly he will also be hit, if he finishes behind Bush it will be terminal for him.
So at the extreme you can see both Rubio and Trump being finished off, which leaves of course Cruz to pick up the debris. If Rubio and Trump are out, Cruz is the main benefactor, since Kasich and Bush are way too unpopular with republicans and too weak to challenge him at this early point, Kasich is actually a democrat.
Still clinging to a Christie stunning win here. Desperate I know. :-)
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
How much could be thrown at the candidate? Could Robert Jenrick be sent to jail? That would put the onus on candidates to make sure their party aren't breaking the rules.
with Amazon backing, this might be something to watch. I might even wipe the dust off my old 3D assets (if I can convert them, that is...)
It's a trap to get you locked into an AWS backend. Far better to go for UnrealEngine or Unity - especially as they have huge levels of suport and a community around them.
Hmmm. I haven't looked deeply into their offer, but there are two advantages, especially for small companies / teams.
Firstly, server infrastructure is a hassle. Amazon AWS works, is scalable and available virtually everywhere in the world. You would not have to maintain servers yourself, which can cost a great deal.
Secondly, Amazon are really good at networking and netcode (yucky term). Networking is complex, and experts capable of designing, creating or maintaining systems and code with response times suitable for modern games are not massively common. When you touch networking code there should be a sign: "there be dragons."
Yes, this system ties you down to Amazon, but it would also relieve a young company of a great deal of hassle, especially if they wanted a worldwide market.
I'm actually surprised MS have signed onto this, given their alternative cloud service.
If I was running / advising a company who had a great idea for an online game, it would certainly push Cryengine up the list of potential engines as it has the potential of removing a heck of a lot of work, effort and investment. Depending, of course, on the licence.
A downside is that if everyone else uses it, it'll be harder to differentiate your product. But that's why you have good designers ...
It's too big of a risk/negative for me, you can still use AWS stuff if you use Unity or UE and then have the option to move away if necessary
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
If Kasich beats Trump it will call very seriously Trump's campaign in question. However if Rubio performs pretty badly he will also be hit, if he finishes behind Bush it will be terminal for him.
So at the extreme you can see both Rubio and Trump being finished off, which leaves of course Cruz to pick up the debris. If Rubio and Trump are out, Cruz is the main benefactor, since Kasich and Bush are way too unpopular with republicans and too weak to challenge him at this early point, Kasich is actually a democrat.
That's well argued. I think I'll cover myself on Cruz.
Kasich sounds like he'll go down with the Republican base (even if he wins NH) about as well as Michael Heseltine.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
How much could be thrown at the candidate? Could Robert Jenrick be sent to jail? That would put the onus on candidates to make sure their party aren't breaking the rules.
A LARGE fine for the party breaking the rules might be in order.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
If Kasich beats Trump it will call very seriously Trump's campaign in question. However if Rubio performs pretty badly he will also be hit, if he finishes behind Bush it will be terminal for him.
So at the extreme you can see both Rubio and Trump being finished off, which leaves of course Cruz to pick up the debris. If Rubio and Trump are out, Cruz is the main benefactor, since Kasich and Bush are way too unpopular with republicans and too weak to challenge him at this early point, Kasich is actually a democrat.
That's well argued. I think I'll cover myself on Cruz.
Kasich sounds like he'll go down with the Republican base (even if he wins NH) about as well as Michael Heseltine.
Sara Murray @SaraMurray 6h6 hours ago Hudson Community Center in NH has been hopping since polls opened at 7am. Officials here say, anecdotally, more independents voting R than D
It's good to cover once self, because the more I hear about the above the more concerned I am about Sanders and Trump and the more confident I am about Kasich and Hillary.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
They certainly wouldn't hold the by election again as another election has been held since. Unless of course the sitting MP is barred from holding office.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
How much could be thrown at the candidate? Could Robert Jenrick be sent to jail? That would put the onus on candidates to make sure their party aren't breaking the rules.
A LARGE fine for the party breaking the rules might be in order.
Campaign overspend x 50 perhaps
One of their MPs - picked at random - gets executed.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
So lets prepare ourselves for President Cruz. His association with Christine Quinn will be damaging enough for Bloomberg.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Whenever there is a news story about Blomberg running his price goes down to 40 and then slowly rises up to about 60 over time.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
How much could be thrown at the candidate? Could Robert Jenrick be sent to jail? That would put the onus on candidates to make sure their party aren't breaking the rules.
A LARGE fine for the party breaking the rules might be in order.
Campaign overspend x 50 perhaps
One of their MPs - picked at random - gets executed.
It's right about the US - it may seem surprising but the US government does actually pay almost the same as percentage of GDP towards health as we do, and for a not very good return too.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Crystal.
As I have a crappy cold (and won't stay up because of work early tomorrow) can you run my book for me overnight please?
Both sides in the ref will throw out ever more ludicrous claims as the campaign goes on. Anyone expecting to listen to the debate and make a reasoned decision hasn't got a prayer, it will generate plenty of heat but precious little light.
Therefore I suspect most people who are not already really committed (50-75% of the electorate?) will look at who is lining up on each side. If, by the time we get to the campaign proper LEAVE consists of the Kippers, Kate Hoey and Pritti somebody or other plus the Express and Mail frothing at the mouth then they haven't a hope in hell.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Whenever there is a news story about Blomberg running his price goes down to 40 and then slowly rises up to about 60 over time.
There are close to 40 people on the campaign team, so I think he's taking it pretty seriously
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Whenever there is a news story about Blomberg running his price goes down to 40 and then slowly rises up to about 60 over time.
Oh wow, the republican candidates' full names are all kinds of awesome:
Bush, John Ellis "Jeb" Carson, Benjamin Solomon "Ben", Sr. Christie, Christopher James "Chris" Cruz, Rafael Edward "Ted" Fiorina, Carleton Sneed "Carly" Gilmore, James Stuart "Jim", III Trump, Donald John, Sr.
Kasich, John Richard Rubio, Marco A.
Wonder why "Ted" isn't using Rafael...
Benjamin Solomon has to be the blackest name ever, and Carleton Sneed is plain winning.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Crystal.
As I have a crappy cold (and won't stay up because of work early tomorrow) can you run my book for me overnight please?
Oh wow, the republican candidates' full names are all kinds of awesome:
Bush, John Ellis "Jeb" Carson, Benjamin Solomon "Ben", Sr. Christie, Christopher James "Chris" Cruz, Rafael Edward "Ted" Fiorina, Carleton Sneed "Carly" Gilmore, James Stuart "Jim", III Trump, Donald John, Sr.
Kasich, John Richard Rubio, Marco A.
Wonder why "Ted" isn't using Rafael...
Benjamin Solomon has to be the blackest name ever, and Carleton Sneed is plain winning.
Carleton Sneed? Poor girl, is she related to Lemony Snicket ?
Oh wow, the republican candidates' full names are all kinds of awesome:
Bush, John Ellis "Jeb" Carson, Benjamin Solomon "Ben", Sr. Christie, Christopher James "Chris" Cruz, Rafael Edward "Ted" Fiorina, Carleton Sneed "Carly" Gilmore, James Stuart "Jim", III Trump, Donald John, Sr.
Kasich, John Richard Rubio, Marco A.
Wonder why "Ted" isn't using Rafael...
Benjamin Solomon has to be the blackest name ever, and Carleton Sneed is plain winning.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Whenever there is a news story about Blomberg running his price goes down to 40 and then slowly rises up to about 60 over time.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Crystal.
As I have a crappy cold (and won't stay up because of work early tomorrow) can you run my book for me overnight please?
Oh wow, the republican candidates' full names are all kinds of awesome:
Bush, John Ellis "Jeb" Carson, Benjamin Solomon "Ben", Sr. Christie, Christopher James "Chris" Cruz, Rafael Edward "Ted" Fiorina, Carleton Sneed "Carly" Gilmore, James Stuart "Jim", III Trump, Donald John, Sr.
Kasich, John Richard Rubio, Marco A.
Wonder why "Ted" isn't using Rafael...
Benjamin Solomon has to be the blackest name ever, and Carleton Sneed is plain winning.
Carleton Sneed? Poor girl, is she related to Lemony Snicket ?
I'm naturally left of centre but I do find it offputting when Labour MPs say things like 'there isn't a sensible alternative'. I mean, 85% of the rest of the world exists outside EU type structures. Fair enough if you think we should stay in the EU, but treating leaving as being nonsensical makes you sound like a zealot.
I just think some parties develop huge attachments to some positions that become shibboleths irrationally. For the Republicans, its guns and abortion. For Labour its the EU.
Well, I'm more of a Europhile than Jeremy (and it was his position that I was describing) - I positively like the EU, which Jeremy doesn't especially. But the starting point seems to me to be that the world is broadly divided into continental trading blocs at different stages of development...
Yes, and the EU has developed well beyond a trading bloc.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Whenever there is a news story about Blomberg running his price goes down to 40 and then slowly rises up to about 60 over time.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Whenever there is a news story about Blomberg running his price goes down to 40 and then slowly rises up to about 60 over time.
The man is so out of touch he announces that he's thinking about it in a foreign financial newspaper that hardly any american reads.
That's close to a 50% US income share!
Thats the problem, he's going to take the votes of people who own almost half of america, but not the votes of anyone else. So he's going to win the Upper East Side of Manhattan, but that's it.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Whenever there is a news story about Blomberg running his price goes down to 40 and then slowly rises up to about 60 over time.
It's good to cover once self, because the more I hear about the above the more concerned I am about Sanders and Trump and the more confident I am about Kasich and Hillary.
If the anecdotes are right (and it seems plausible) then I think you're right.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
So lets prepare ourselves for President Cruz. His association with Christine Quinn will be damaging enough for Bloomberg.
Hillary comfortably beats Cruz with Bloomberg included in most polls, albeit it is more likely she faces Trump
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
How much could be thrown at the candidate? Could Robert Jenrick be sent to jail? That would put the onus on candidates to make sure their party aren't breaking the rules.
Politicians will not vote for politicians to go to jail.
If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
I'm naturally left of centre but I do find it offputting when Labour MPs say things like 'there isn't a sensible alternative'. I mean, 85% of the rest of the world exists outside EU type structures. Fair enough if you think we should stay in the EU, but treating leaving as being nonsensical makes you sound like a zealot.
I just think some parties develop huge attachments to some positions that become shibboleths irrationally. For the Republicans, its guns and abortion. For Labour its the EU.
Well, I'm more of a Europhile than Jeremy (and it was his position that I was describing) - I positively like the EU, which Jeremy doesn't especially. But the starting point seems to me to be that the world is broadly divided into continental trading blocs at different stages of development...
Yes, and the EU has developed well beyond a trading bloc.
I thought it was a well established fact that the EU is a political project.
If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
I just don't think it will happen.
Are you betting on Bloomberg?
Edit - sorry david, I quoted the wrong post - question meant for @rcs1000
If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
I just don't think it will happen.
Wall St will be very torn between Hilary and Bloomberg for sure.
If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
I just don't think it will happen.
Are you betting on Bloomberg?
Edit - sorry david, I quoted the wrong post - question meant for @rcs1000
I'm long from about 400-1, and will make a five figure sum should he win. I don't feel any particular urge to increase my position.
@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l
If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
I just don't think it will happen.
Are you betting on Bloomberg?
Edit - sorry david, I quoted the wrong post - question meant for @rcs1000
I thought I was going to be accused of talking my book or something! If only.....
In that election Bloomberg won with 58% across the City and carried Manhattan with 60%, Staten Island with 76%, Queens with 63% and Brooklyn with 58%. However he only won 38% in the Bronx
Oh wow, the republican candidates' full names are all kinds of awesome:
Bush, John Ellis "Jeb" Carson, Benjamin Solomon "Ben", Sr. Christie, Christopher James "Chris" Cruz, Rafael Edward "Ted" Fiorina, Carleton Sneed "Carly" Gilmore, James Stuart "Jim", III Trump, Donald John, Sr.
Not sure I agree with all of that, but he's certainly not a natural born citizen, and is therefore ineligible.
Fact: if Cruz had not given up his Canadian citizenship (as he did in 2014) he would not even qualify to be an intern at the White House, never mind POTUS!
In that election Bloomberg won with 58% across the City and carried Manhattan with 60%, Staten Island with 76%, Queens with 63% and Brooklyn with 58%. However he only won 38% in the Bronx
Bloomberg might not do very well in Mississippi I think.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
How much could be thrown at the candidate? Could Robert Jenrick be sent to jail? That would put the onus on candidates to make sure their party aren't breaking the rules.
Lightning striking twice in Newark. Fiona Jones was the first MP to be disqualified since the law was introduced in 1883. The police prosecuted both her and her agent.
I assume that a by-election would take place as a result of the sitting MP being disqualified rather than simply because fraud was found to have taken place.
Cops called in over Newark by-election, according to Guido.
And what are they going to do? If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
They certainly wouldn't hold the by election again as another election has been held since. Unless of course the sitting MP is barred from holding office.
That is the punishment set out by law.
I say this without any comment on guilt or otherwise. Jennick has been a good constituency MP so far and it would be a shame to see him end up being kicked out in this way. But if it did happen it would be setting some kind of unhappy record for Newark after Fiona Jones and Patrick Mercer.
@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l
So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.
@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l
@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l
So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.
Not really Fraser...
Taki Theodoracopuloshas been writing that column since Fraser was 4 years old !
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
So lets prepare ourselves for President Cruz. His association with Christine Quinn will be damaging enough for Bloomberg.
Hillary comfortably beats Cruz with Bloomberg included in most polls, albeit it is more likely she faces Trump
My impression is that Left-Wing Democrats hate Bloomberg with a passion because of his support for the police and stop and frisk (it's an article of faith that US police officers are Nazis who gun down minorities at will). Most Republicans are no more enthusiastic. That leaves a narrow ground, and no infrastructure as yet.
It's right about the US - it may seem surprising but the US government does actually pay almost the same as percentage of GDP towards health as we do, and for a not very good return too.
No one should take seriously a survey that makes use of the incredibly misleading Commonwealth Fund Report. You remember the one that says the NHS is fantastic because it has good paperwork and keeps patients informed in spite of the fact it comes 10th out of 11 on patient outcomes - actually keeping people alive and making them better.
Kind of sums up the NHS religion. Great at making work and not so hot on actually saving patients.
In that election Bloomberg won with 58% across the City and carried Manhattan with 60%, Staten Island with 76%, Queens with 63% and Brooklyn with 58%. However he only won 38% in the Bronx
Bloomberg might not do very well in Mississippi I think.
Yes but even if he won he would not carry the Deep South
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote. There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
It may well be enough to knock Rubio back in terms of the narrative.
Yes, I think that's fair. Although Betfair does seem to have a major hard-on for Rubio.
After Saturday's debate, I did a 180 on Rubio. He's toast.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
So lets prepare ourselves for President Cruz. His association with Christine Quinn will be damaging enough for Bloomberg.
Hillary comfortably beats Cruz with Bloomberg included in most polls, albeit it is more likely she faces Trump
My impression is that Left-Wing Democrats hate Bloomberg with a passion because of his support for the police and stop and frisk (it's an article of faith that US police officers are Nazis who gun down minorities at will). Most Republicans are no more enthusiastic. That leaves a narrow ground, and no infrastructure as yet.
If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
I just don't think it will happen.
Are you betting on Bloomberg?
Edit - sorry david, I quoted the wrong post - question meant for @rcs1000
I thought I was going to be accused of talking my book or something! If only.....
lol, no accusations like that from me!
You're one of the most objective and self aware posters on here.
Anyway, I mostly agree with you re; Bloomberg.
The talk about a possible bid certainly buys the guy some additional influence he wouldn't otherwise have - I can see no incentive for him to quash the speculation.
It's right about the US - it may seem surprising but the US government does actually pay almost the same as percentage of GDP towards health as we do, and for a not very good return too.
No one should take seriously a survey that makes use of the incredibly misleading Commonwealth Fund Report. You remember the one that says the NHS is fantastic because it has good paperwork and keeps patients informed in spite of the fact it comes 10th out of 11 on patient outcomes - actually keeping people alive and making them better.
Kind of sums up the NHS religion. Great at making work and not so hot on actually saving patients.
Amazing that life expectancy is now 81.5 then. Let's face it if the NHS made a paraplegic blind person beat Usain Bolt in Rio you'd still say it was crap.
Comments
http://www.wmur.com/politics/must-see-video-pig-shows-up-at-pelham-polls/37901668
Christie [0-24%]
Bush [0-21%]
Rubio [0-21%]
Carson [0-19%]
Fiorina [0-19%]
If the 38 voters were "random" we could expect the above with 95% confidence.
Wonder if any of the candidates will break this
(Cruz is most likely I guess as his voters are more likely to be rural and thus over-represented in a hamlet sample)
Right now I think Kasich will come very close to Trump, and Hillary is going to come very close to Sanders.
Tis a bit of an odd inconsistency Mr_A. – The justification for Gibraltar getting the vote is that they partake in European elections as part of the South West of England constituency, therefore there is precedent for Gibraltar to be involved with the UK at a European level, - and yet UK resident foreign nationals from within the EU are able to vote in the European elections but are not allowed the referendum vote. – Mrs SSC is not impressed.
They interviewed a lot of Sanders voters who said they will be switching to Kasich.
Firstly, server infrastructure is a hassle. Amazon AWS works, is scalable and available virtually everywhere in the world. You would not have to maintain servers yourself, which can cost a great deal.
Secondly, Amazon are really good at networking and netcode (yucky term). Networking is complex, and experts capable of designing, creating or maintaining systems and code with response times suitable for modern games are not massively common. When you touch networking code there should be a sign: "there be dragons."
Yes, this system ties you down to Amazon, but it would also relieve a young company of a great deal of hassle, especially if they wanted a worldwide market.
I'm actually surprised MS have signed onto this, given their alternative cloud service.
If I was running / advising a company who had a great idea for an online game, it would certainly push Cryengine up the list of potential engines as it has the potential of removing a heck of a lot of work, effort and investment. Depending, of course, on the licence.
A downside is that if everyone else uses it, it'll be harder to differentiate your product. But that's why you have good designers ...
Part of the problem with that childish system.
I fell for this in May last year when I started to lay off on Con most seats off the back of rumours of 'very high turnout' and swarms of Labour activists in their target marginal seats.
I saw a similar pattern in Iowa for Cruz and Rubio in the last days before the vote.
There is definitely a surge of interest for Kasich in N.H. today, the question is will that be enough?
And there is the snafu that democrat voters can vote in the republican primary as long as they are not registered democrats, Kasich as the only democrat running in the republican primary will be the main benefactor of any switch.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tate-lyle-boss-we-may-push-for-brexit-unless-david-cameron-gets-sweeter-eu-deal-a3176196.html
However if Rubio performs pretty badly he will also be hit, if he finishes behind Bush it will be terminal for him.
So at the extreme you can see both Rubio and Trump being finished off, which leaves of course Cruz to pick up the debris.
If Rubio and Trump are out, Cruz is the main benefactor, since Kasich and Bush are way too unpopular with republicans and too weak to challenge him at this early point, Kasich is actually a democrat.
GOP
Donald Trump – 29%
Marco Rubio – 18%
John Kasich – 14%
Ted Cruz – 11%
Jeb Bush – 8%
Chris Christie – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 5%
Trump leads amongst 18-30s, 31-45s and 60+ but ties Kasich amongst those aged 46-59. Trump leads with whites and Asians, Carson with blacks, Rubio and Bush with Hispanics
Democrats
Sanders 55%
Clinton 41%
Sanders leads in every age group, though Hillary leads with minorities
http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-14-points-in-new-hampshire-55-41/
If they rerun the by-election the Tories will win by a landslide again, the East Midlands is the new Tory heartland, Labour and UKIP have better chances beating them in the South than in the Midlands.
http://frontloading.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/two-things-to-watch-in-new-hampshire.html
Kasich sounds like he'll go down with the Republican base (even if he wins NH) about as well as Michael Heseltine.
Unless he does really well tonight, in which case he's definitely not toast.
Clear?
BTW: I promised news on Bloomberg. His team is evaluating running even if Clinton is the candidate: the theory being that if it were Cruz or Trump vs Clinton, she'd be too damaged to win, and he'd be able to scoop half her vote and a third of the Republican vote. The team in NY is growing by the day, and it's beginning to get a bit of internal momentum.
We shall see, but I reckon the chances of Bloomberg standing have just increased a bit.
Campaign overspend x 50 perhaps
Hudson Community Center in NH has been hopping since polls opened at 7am. Officials here say, anecdotally, more independents voting R than D
It's good to cover once self, because the more I hear about the above the more concerned I am about Sanders and Trump and the more confident I am about Kasich and Hillary.
His association with Christine Quinn will be damaging enough for Bloomberg.
It's right about the US - it may seem surprising but the US government does actually pay almost the same as percentage of GDP towards health as we do, and for a not very good return too.
As I have a crappy cold (and won't stay up because of work early tomorrow) can you run my book for me overnight please?
Therefore I suspect most people who are not already really committed (50-75% of the electorate?) will look at who is lining up on each side. If, by the time we get to the campaign proper LEAVE consists of the Kippers, Kate Hoey and Pritti somebody or other plus the Express and Mail frothing at the mouth then they haven't a hope in hell.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/696805279162236928
The man is so out of touch he announces that he's thinking about it in a foreign financial newspaper that hardly any american reads.
Bush, John Ellis "Jeb"
Carson, Benjamin Solomon "Ben", Sr.
Christie, Christopher James "Chris"
Cruz, Rafael Edward "Ted"
Fiorina, Carleton Sneed "Carly"
Gilmore, James Stuart "Jim", III
Trump, Donald John, Sr.
Kasich, John Richard
Rubio, Marco A.
Wonder why "Ted" isn't using Rafael...
Benjamin Solomon has to be the blackest name ever, and Carleton Sneed is plain winning.
Poor girl, is she related to Lemony Snicket ?
As I have a crappy cold (and won't stay up because of work early tomorrow) can you run my book for me overnight please?
So he's going to win the Upper East Side of Manhattan, but that's it.
As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.
I just don't think it will happen.
Edit - sorry david, I quoted the wrong post - question meant for @rcs1000
More seriously, Bloomberg as a Jewish Republican won the mayoralty of a traditionally Democrat City by a big margin.
In his re-election campaign (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_mayoral_election,_2005), he beat the Democrat 60:40 citywide, and even won a majority of black votes.
http://www.capitolhilloutsider.com/ted-cruz-is-not-a-legal-u-s-citizen-at-all/
Not sure I agree with all of that, but he's certainly not a natural born citizen, and is therefore ineligible.
Fact: if Cruz had not given up his Canadian citizenship (as he did in 2014) he would not even qualify to be an intern at the White House, never mind POTUS!
https://t.co/Z4ZbVsd8Dj https://t.co/IgMSuRq0OH
I assume that a by-election would take place as a result of the sitting MP being disqualified rather than simply because fraud was found to have taken place.
I say this without any comment on guilt or otherwise. Jennick has been a good constituency MP so far and it would be a shame to see him end up being kicked out in this way. But if it did happen it would be setting some kind of unhappy record for Newark after Fiona Jones and Patrick Mercer.
Taki Theodoracopuloshas been writing that column since Fraser was 4 years old !
Kind of sums up the NHS religion. Great at making work and not so hot on actually saving patients.
You're one of the most objective and self aware posters on here.
Anyway, I mostly agree with you re; Bloomberg.
The talk about a possible bid certainly buys the guy some additional influence he wouldn't otherwise have - I can see no incentive for him to quash the speculation.
For now.