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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The changing politics of Northern Ireland

SystemSystem Posts: 12,293
edited 2016 24 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The changing politics of Northern Ireland

Part of the United Kingdom got a new leader earlier this month.  You probably missed this:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,745
    Excellent piece Alastair.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    edited 2016 24
    Thirst?

    Three in a row!

    Cheat TSE! ;)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Meh, third
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Thirst?

    Three in a row!

    Cheat TSE! ;)

    Clearly nothing better to do. Sad life !
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    surbiton said:

    Thirst?

    Three in a row!

    Cheat TSE! ;)

    Clearly nothing better to do. Sad life !
    Just playing cards with a toddler whilst watching recorded 'In the Night Garden'.

    Believe me, PB is sane compared to In the Night Garden ...

    Although I do sometimes wonder if Plato is Upsy Dais, and Roger Iggle Piggle ... :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FPT
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Following Corbyn's actions across the Channel this weekend, any proper-minded member of Labour's Shadow Cabinet should be resigning their position forthwith.

    Where are you Andy Burnham?

    Where are you Lord Falconer?

    Where are you Lisa Nandy?

    Where are you Hilary Benn?

    Etc, etc?

    Waiting to take over, you need to be in the Shadow Cabinet to become the King, see Michael Howard, assassins from outside the frontbench never get the crown, see Michael Heseltine!
    The important number is 117. 117 Labour MPs need to resign the whip, insist they are the Parliamentary Labour Party and elect the LotO.

    Unless that happens, sporadic statements here and there mean nothing. A breakaway group fewer than 117 will mean another SDP like situation - splits the left vote.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161

    surbiton said:

    Thirst?

    Three in a row!

    Cheat TSE! ;)

    Clearly nothing better to do. Sad life !
    Just playing cards with a toddler whilst watching recorded 'In the Night Garden'.

    Believe me, PB is sane compared to In the Night Garden ...

    Although I do sometimes wonder if Plato is Upsy Dais, and Roger Iggle Piggle ... :)
    That is a show with no proper role models for young kids. None of the characters- with the possibly exception of Iggle Piggle- seem to have a job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145
    Good piece but with War and Peace and Deutschland 83 about to start can't see a rush of PBers rushing to debate NI politics on a Sunday night but well done for trying!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    Thirst?

    Three in a row!

    Cheat TSE! ;)

    Clearly nothing better to do. Sad life !
    Just playing cards with a toddler whilst watching recorded 'In the Night Garden'.

    Believe me, PB is sane compared to In the Night Garden ...

    Although I do sometimes wonder if Plato is Upsy Dais, and Roger Iggle Piggle ... :)
    That is a show with no proper role models for young kids. None of the characters- with the possibly exception of Iggle Piggle- seem to have a job.
    Makka Pakka washes faces from his Ogg Pogg.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    Several Youtube clips show Iggle Piggle's demise.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    dr_spyn said:

    Several Youtube clips show Iggle Piggle's demise.

    Well, the last you see him, he is sailing off in a small boat through a rough sea. No sign of any auto-tiller. He won't last until morning.

    What? You're telling me it isn't a documentary?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    Outside Northern Ireland, Northern Irish politics seems to be comprised of sectarian bickering, leftovers from past paramilitary activity, marches and flags, Irish language in schools and gay cakes

    Yeah, sounds about right.

    I do like the idea the major players were hoping for a hung parliament so they could ensure a few more concessions, but that the Tory majority, slim though it is, scuppered that. Serves them right for not dealing with problems at the time, I suppose.

    The hope they might, as a result of that and Corbyn making overtures to Labour implausible for the DUP, start to focus on normal concerns, strikes me as optimistic. I've long since become inured to news of political wrangling in NI (as I was only entering adolescence by the time of the Good Friday Agreement, my abiding memory of NI is not of a place of violence, but a place where old farts never move on or shut the f--- up about things that shouldn't be as important as they make them seen; that may not be reasonable, given the history of the place, but not having grown up with the worst of it, it's harder to accept, at a core level, how difficult it must be for them to move on properly).
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2016 24
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 52m52 minutes ago
    Andrew Neil Retweeted Michael Burns
    Sanders problem will be Super Tuesday. Though Left he doesn't poll well with ethnic voters

    Super Tuesday Democratic race, if Sanders wins Iowa:

    Alabama: Hillary
    American Samoa: ?
    Arkansas: Hillary
    Colorado: Sanders
    Georgia: Hillary
    Massachusetts: Sanders
    Minnesota: Sanders
    Oklahoma: Sanders
    Tennessee: ?
    Texas: ?
    Vermont: Sanders
    Virginia: Hillary

    So 4 Hillary wins, 5 Sanders wins, and 3 too close too call.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    dr_spyn said:

    Several Youtube clips show Iggle Piggle's demise.

    Well, the last you see him, he is sailing off in a small boat through a rough sea. No sign of any auto-tiller. He won't last until morning.

    What? You're telling me it isn't a documentary?
    Is Iggle Piggle a metaphor for the state of the Labour Leadership? Or is there a deeper meaning to the allegory?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited 2016 24

    HYUFD said:



    The Scots changed sides if I remember, the Presbyterians in the Scottish Parliament backed Parliament against the King then switched to backing Charles IInd at the Battles of Dunbar and Worcester, the likes of the Duke of Montrose were Royalists from the start

    I think you mean the Marquess of Montrose; he started a Covenanter , then reverted to reluctant Presbyterian royalist. A bonny fechter.
    Curious what you are calling my ancestor* - I assume it isn't complimentary... ;)


    * Told you I was from Glasgow :D
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246

    dr_spyn said:

    Several Youtube clips show Iggle Piggle's demise.

    Well, the last you see him, he is sailing off in a small boat through a rough sea. No sign of any auto-tiller. He won't last until morning.

    What? You're telling me it isn't a documentary?
    Is Iggle Piggle a metaphor for the state of the Labour Leadership? Or is there a deeper meaning to the allegory?
    Is the pinky ponk nuclear armed? Will Corbyn send the Tombliboos to act as peace keepers in the war between the Wottingers and the Pontipines? Who does Daisy do when she says 'Daisy do!' next to her travelling bed?

    And what the **** are the Haahoos meant to represent?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145
    Speedy said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 52m52 minutes ago
    Andrew Neil Retweeted Michael Burns
    Sanders problem will be Super Tuesday. Though Left he doesn't poll well with ethnic voters

    Super Tuesday Democratic race, if Sanders wins Iowa:

    Alabama: Hillary
    American Samoa: ?
    Arkansas: Hillary
    Colorado: Sanders
    Georgia: Hillary
    Massachusetts: Sanders
    Minnesota: Sanders
    Oklahoma: Sanders
    Tennessee: ?
    Texas: ?
    Vermont: Sanders
    Virginia: Hillary

    So 4 Hillary wins, 5 Sanders wins, and 3 too close too call.

    Hillary will win Oklahoma and Texas and Tennessee as she did in 2008, they border Arkansas
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,550
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:



    The Scots changed sides if I remember, the Presbyterians in the Scottish Parliament backed Parliament against the King then switched to backing Charles IInd at the Battles of Dunbar and Worcester, the likes of the Duke of Montrose were Royalists from the start

    I think you mean the Marquess of Montrose; he started a Covenanter , then reverted to reluctant Presbyterian royalist. A bonny fechter.
    Curious what you are calling my ancestor* - I assume it isn't complimentary... ;)


    * Told you I was from Glasgow :D
    bonny fechter = bonny fighter

    Entirely complimentary.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited 2016 24

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in their lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties). They have always lost, and always will, unless they up-sticks and move...

    In addition to that outrageous state of affairs, I repeat again, for the hard of hearing.

    For the past three elections, a MAJORITY of those who participated elected no-one.

    So if a majority elect no-one, who exactly do the "representatives" purport to represent?
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Speedy said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 52m52 minutes ago
    Andrew Neil Retweeted Michael Burns
    Sanders problem will be Super Tuesday. Though Left he doesn't poll well with ethnic voters

    Super Tuesday Democratic race, if Sanders wins Iowa:

    Alabama: Hillary
    American Samoa: ?
    Arkansas: Hillary
    Colorado: Sanders
    Georgia: Hillary
    Massachusetts: Sanders
    Minnesota: Sanders
    Oklahoma: Sanders
    Tennessee: ?
    Texas: ?
    Vermont: Sanders
    Virginia: Hillary

    So 4 Hillary wins, 5 Sanders wins, and 3 too close too call.

    Clinton would have a clean sweep across the south based on closer ideology, even if her and Bill didn't have a connection with Arkansas.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited 2016 24

    Speedy said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 52m52 minutes ago
    Andrew Neil Retweeted Michael Burns
    Sanders problem will be Super Tuesday. Though Left he doesn't poll well with ethnic voters

    Super Tuesday Democratic race, if Sanders wins Iowa:

    Alabama: Hillary
    American Samoa: ?
    Arkansas: Hillary
    Colorado: Sanders
    Georgia: Hillary
    Massachusetts: Sanders
    Minnesota: Sanders
    Oklahoma: Sanders
    Tennessee: ?
    Texas: ?
    Vermont: Sanders
    Virginia: Hillary

    So 4 Hillary wins, 5 Sanders wins, and 3 too close too call.

    Clinton would have a clean sweep across the south based on closer ideology, even if her and Bill didn't have a connection with Arkansas.
    Not necessarily. Perversely enough, the fact the Democrats have been in terminal decline in so many of the southern states might actually help Sanders in those primaries -- a lot of the socially-conservative white voters who voted Clinton in 2008 will now no longer even be registered Democrats (and thus ineligible to vote in the primaries), and the "selectorate" could be down to a left-wing hardcore.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,550
    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:



    The Scots changed sides if I remember, the Presbyterians in the Scottish Parliament backed Parliament against the King then switched to backing Charles IInd at the Battles of Dunbar and Worcester, the likes of the Duke of Montrose were Royalists from the start

    I think you mean the Marquess of Montrose; he started a Covenanter , then reverted to reluctant Presbyterian royalist. A bonny fechter.
    Curious what you are calling my ancestor* - I assume it isn't complimentary... ;)


    * Told you I was from Glasgow :D
    bonny fechter = bonny fighter

    Entirely complimentary.
    Then appreciated...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145
    edited 2016 24
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 52m52 minutes ago
    Andrew Neil Retweeted Michael Burns
    Sanders problem will be Super Tuesday. Though Left he doesn't poll well with ethnic voters

    Super Tuesday Democratic race, if Sanders wins Iowa:

    Alabama: Hillary
    American Samoa: ?
    Arkansas: Hillary
    Colorado: Sanders
    Georgia: Hillary
    Massachusetts: Sanders
    Minnesota: Sanders
    Oklahoma: Sanders
    Tennessee: ?
    Texas: ?
    Vermont: Sanders
    Virginia: Hillary

    So 4 Hillary wins, 5 Sanders wins, and 3 too close too call.

    Clinton would have a clean sweep across the south based on closer ideology, even if her and Bill didn't have a connection with Arkansas.
    Not necessarily. Perversely enough, the fact the Democrats have been in terminal decline in so many of the southern states might actually help Sanders in those primaries -- a lot of the socially-conservative white voters who voted Clinton in 2008 will now no longer even be registered Democrats (and thus ineligible to vote in the primaries), and the "selectorate" could be down to a left-wing hardcore.
    Obama won more votes in those states than Kerry in 2004 so I don't think that follows. Latest polling has Hillary leading Sanders 50% to 38% in Tennessee, 51% to 41% in Oklahoma and 55% to 34% in Texas
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in their lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties). They have always lost, and always will, unless they up-sticks and move...

    In addition to that outrageous state of affairs, I repeat again, for the hard of hearing.

    For the past three elections, a MAJORITY of those who participated elected no-one.

    So if a majority elect no-one, who exactly do the "representatives" purport to represent?
    Tough shit, if you lose you lose. The plurality ALWAYS wins in every single constituency.

    If you want to elect someone you need to win, you don't just need to vote. Maybe take part and campaign etc.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited 2016 24

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 52m52 minutes ago
    Andrew Neil Retweeted Michael Burns
    Sanders problem will be Super Tuesday. Though Left he doesn't poll well with ethnic voters

    Super Tuesday Democratic race, if Sanders wins Iowa:

    Alabama: Hillary
    American Samoa: ?
    Arkansas: Hillary
    Colorado: Sanders
    Georgia: Hillary
    Massachusetts: Sanders
    Minnesota: Sanders
    Oklahoma: Sanders
    Tennessee: ?
    Texas: ?
    Vermont: Sanders
    Virginia: Hillary

    So 4 Hillary wins, 5 Sanders wins, and 3 too close too call.

    Clinton would have a clean sweep across the south based on closer ideology, even if her and Bill didn't have a connection with Arkansas.
    Not necessarily. Perversely enough, the fact the Democrats have been in terminal decline in so many of the southern states might actually help Sanders in those primaries -- a lot of the socially-conservative white voters who voted Clinton in 2008 will now no longer even be registered Democrats (and thus ineligible to vote in the primaries), and the "selectorate" could be down to a left-wing hardcore.
    Obama won more votes in those states than Kerry in 2004 so I don't think that follows. Latest polling has Hillary leading Sanders 50% to 38% in Tennessee, 51% to 41% in Oklahoma and 55% to 34% in Texas
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
    There haven't been any polls in the states you quote since December, since when there's been a swing to Sanders in the national polls.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    What you need to remember is that a UK general election has three concurrent purposes. I wrote about this at some length on the thread before last.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited 2016 24
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    No the representatives is the sole person most popular.

    If everyone elects someone then what is the point? May as well appoint everyone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,242
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    If you follow your argument to its logical conclusion you'd have to advocate not merely for one person, one vote, but one person, one representative, which is absurd.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    Convince a plurality of your electorate to vote for someone else and the Tory MP will be gone - no ifs, no buts. Democracy in action.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited 2016 24

    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    What you need to remember is that a UK general election has three concurrent purposes. I wrote about this at some length on the thread before last.
    Sorry, Mr Quid. I don`t follow you that closely. Without even knowing what those three concurrent purposes might have been, the system we have in the UK is a failure on all three.

    Most MPs are not supported by the majority of their constituents, so do not represent their views.

    The government of the day does not have any moral right to run the country.

    What was the third one?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    What you need to remember is that a UK general election has three concurrent purposes. I wrote about this at some length on the thread before last.
    Sorry, Mr Quid. I don`t follow you that closely. Without even knowing what those three concurrent purposes might have been, the system we have in the UK is a failure on all three.

    I
    ? If you don't know what three purposes he's talking about, how do you it must fail on all three?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    My Tory MP in the last parliament was a total dud as a constituency MP (it was Lansley). I didn't even get to vote for or against him as I moved into the constituency after the 2010 election.

    I should have demanded an election when I moved so I could have had my say! It was unfair for me to be represented by someone I'd had no chance to vote for!

    Change the system now! ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145
    edited 2016 24
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 52m52 minutes ago
    Andrew Neil Retweeted Michael Burns
    Sanders problem will be Super Tuesday. Though Left he doesn't poll well with ethnic voters

    Super Tuesday Democratic race, if Sanders wins Iowa:

    Alabama: Hillary
    American Samoa: ?
    Arkansas: Hillary
    Colorado: Sanders
    Georgia: Hillary
    Massachusetts: Sanders
    Minnesota: Sanders
    Oklahoma: Sanders
    Tennessee: ?
    Texas: ?
    Vermont: Sanders
    Virginia: Hillary

    So 4 Hillary wins, 5 Sanders wins, and 3 too close too call.

    Clinton would have a clean sweep across the south based on closer ideology, even if her and Bill didn't have a connection with Arkansas.
    Not necessarily. Perversely enough, the fact the Democrats have been in terminal decline in so many of the southern states might actually help Sanders in those primaries -- a lot of the socially-conservative white voters who voted Clinton in 2008 will now no longer even be registered Democrats (and thus ineligible to vote in the primaries), and the "selectorate" could be down to a left-wing hardcore.
    Obama won more votes in those states than Kerry in 2004 so I don't think that follows. Latest polling has Hillary leading Sanders 50% to 38% in Tennessee, 51% to 41% in Oklahoma and 55% to 34% in Texas
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
    There haven't been any polls in the states you quote since December, since when there's been a swing to Sanders in the national polls.
    Sanders had already made his move by December actually when he was already well ahead in New Hampshire so I doubt much has changed, today's CBS poll still gives Hillary a comfortable lead in South Carolina, her vote is holding up in the South
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    You can't legislate majority support for a candidate. You can switch to multi-member constituencies, thereby damaging purpose 3 of a UK general election, and improving purpose 2 by increasing proportionality damages purpose 1. In isolation, STV is not the answer.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/918652/#Comment_918652
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited 2016 24
    kle4 said:

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    What you need to remember is that a UK general election has three concurrent purposes. I wrote about this at some length on the thread before last.
    Sorry, Mr Quid. I don`t follow you that closely. Without even knowing what those three concurrent purposes might have been, the system we have in the UK is a failure on all three.

    I
    ? If you don't know what three purposes he's talking about, how do you it must fail on all three?
    I await his retort to my post!!!

    In fact, Mr Kle, I don`t need to. Mr Quid comes straight out of the Tory Handbook for PB posters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,745
    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited 2016 24

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    Sindyref 2?

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    One of those facts of life really. Labour win the voting system is tickety boo . Labour lose FPTP is the worse and most undemocratic system ever ever, so there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,745
    PClipp said:

    kle4 said:

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    What you need to remember is that a UK general election has three concurrent purposes. I wrote about this at some length on the thread before last.
    Sorry, Mr Quid. I don`t follow you that closely. Without even knowing what those three concurrent purposes might have been, the system we have in the UK is a failure on all three.

    I
    ? If you don't know what three purposes he's talking about, how do you it must fail on all three?
    I await his retort to my post!!!

    In fact, Mr Kle, I don`t need to. Mr Quid comes straight out of the Tory Handbook for PB posters.
    You should back my electoral system, which is the Directly Elected Dictator model.

    Everyone is a winner under that system.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited 2016 24

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    You didn`t mention AV.... Or did I miss that too?

    What we need on PB is a really good thread on voting systems.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    These arguments a too childish and too pathetic for words
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    Scottish independence referendum mk2 ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    PClipp said:

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    You didn`t mention AV.... Or did I miss that too?

    What we need on PB is a really good thread on voting systems.
    It was his parvum opus on AV. The magnum must still be to come!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    Scottish independence referendum mk2 ?
    Please not the neverendum!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    My Tory MP in the last parliament was a total dud as a constituency MP (it was Lansley). I didn't even get to vote for or against him as I moved into the constituency after the 2010 election.

    I should have demanded an election when I moved so I could have had my say! It was unfair for me to be represented by someone I'd had no chance to vote for!

    Change the system now! ;)

    I have just checked out Iggle Piggle on youtube.

    It cannot last long. There is not enough acid in the world to keep those scriptwriters going!

    It is like the Magic Roundabout without the advantage of brevity.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,745
    PClipp said:

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    You didn`t mention AV.... Or did I miss that too?

    What we need on PB is a really good thread on voting systems.
    It was implicitly implied with the ERS figures for the 2015 general election result AV and I did say

    As we can see below, under the various PR systems, we would likely see a Tory/UKIP coalition, indeed some Tories might well regret not voting for AV in the 2011 referendum, as they would have done better under AV than under First Past The Post.
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    God help us all of the Yanks put such a bigot in charge.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,270
    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,745
    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    You didn`t mention AV.... Or did I miss that too?

    What we need on PB is a really good thread on voting systems.
    It was his parvum opus on AV. The magnum must still be to come!
    I took large chunks from my AV thread and put them into the morning piece
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    PClipp said:

    kle4 said:

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    If I end up with an MP who never supports what I want to see, and always votes against what I do want, that is actually less than nothing. My Tory MP is a total negative, Mr Quid.

    And the whole House of Commons is a shambles.
    What you need to remember is that a UK general election has three concurrent purposes. I wrote about this at some length on the thread before last.
    Sorry, Mr Quid. I don`t follow you that closely. Without even knowing what those three concurrent purposes might have been, the system we have in the UK is a failure on all three.

    I
    ? If you don't know what three purposes he's talking about, how do you it must fail on all three?
    I await his retort to my post!!!

    In fact, Mr Kle, I don`t need to. Mr Quid comes straight out of the Tory Handbook for PB posters.
    I voted Lib Dem.

    Here are the three purposes of a UK general election: http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/918652/#Comment_918652
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052

    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    Now that I've published a thread on AV/electoral voting systems, what threads am I going to do now to terrorise delight PBers?

    You didn`t mention AV.... Or did I miss that too?

    What we need on PB is a really good thread on voting systems.
    It was his parvum opus on AV. The magnum must still be to come!
    I took large chunks from my AV thread and put them into the morning piece
    You defaced your masterpiece for a Sunday AM piece? For shame.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited 2016 24
    OK, Mr Kle, I looked up Mr Quid`s previous post. He said:

    On topic, electoral reform is not the same as political reform.

    Our political system currently sees a general election trying to do three things:

    (1) Elect a prime minister and a government by the voters without allowing parties to stitch up the result without reference to the voters
    (2) Elect a legislature that represents the political balance of the country
    (3) Elect a super social worker ("I must write to my MP about that") for every area of the country - party is irrelevant to this.

    And of course, Mr Quid is quite wrong.

    Point 1 should read: Elect a prime minister and a government by the voters, who can command a majority of votes in the House of Commons.

    Point 2 is quite right.

    Point 3 is a strategy to win votes, not an objective. (This point seems to come straight our of the Tory Party handbook.)

    So I apologise to Mr Quid for having said that he was entirely wrong. His post was a bit of a curate`s egg.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    edited 2016 24
    delete
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    So he has been ride about the Mexicans, Chinese and now the Indians, clearly ready made for diplomacy!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,693
    There are only two very likely outcomes I foresee. The SDLP will lose a few seats and People Before Profit will gain one or two. I think the end of Robinson was like when certain FTSE CEOs step down and the share price rises several percentage points, he was spent. Unionists know that ejecting Sinn Féin would mean replacing devolution with Iain Duncan Smith and they don't seem eager to walk that road yet. The UUP gained a pact candidate at Westminster; so did the DUP. Their decline is continuing but slowly because young Catholics quit NI or quit voting. Sinn Féin will presumably have recovered after the southern February election in time for May but the rise of PBP reflects in part their voters' tiredness with the leaderships' southern rebasing.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    PClipp said:

    OK, Mr Kle, I looked up Mr Quid`s previous post. He said:

    On topic, electoral reform is not the same as political reform.

    Our political system currently sees a general election trying to do three things:

    (1) Elect a prime minister and a government by the voters without allowing parties to stitch up the result without reference to the voters
    (2) Elect a legislature that represents the political balance of the country
    (3) Elect a super social worker ("I must write to my MP about that") for every area of the country - party is irrelevant to this.

    And of course, Mr Quid is quite wrong.

    Point 1 should read: Elect a prime minister and a government by the voters, who can command a majority of votes in the House of Commons.

    Point 2 is quite right.

    Point 3 is a strategy to win votes, not an objective. (This point seems to come straight our of the Tory Party handbook.)

    So I apologise to Mr Quid for having said that he was entirely wrong. His post was a bit of a curate`s egg.
    If you don't allow the electorate to elect a majority of MPs from one party, you get the parties stitching up the PM/government without reference to the voters. As happened in 2010.

    And the "super social worker" is unquestionably by consensus a big part of the job. If it weren't, you wouldn't hear about "good constituency MPs".
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    If you follow your argument to its logical conclusion you'd have to advocate not merely for one person, one vote, but one person, one representative, which is absurd.
    That would of course be the unattainable "perfect" PR, which no country enjoys, although most come quite close.

    So, why is coming close not possible or desirable?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,164
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    If you follow your argument to its logical conclusion you'd have to advocate not merely for one person, one vote, but one person, one representative, which is absurd.
    That would of course be the unattainable "perfect" PR, which no country enjoys, although most come quite close.

    So, why is coming close not possible or desirable?
    Because we live in the real world....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2016 24
    Re Trump comments (and I am no big fan), it seems like his tweet about Paris and Germany has been taken incorrectly. Based on the C-SPAN/MSNBC it appears that the guy was way back in the crowd wearing a bright red turban, and from view from stage it looked a lot like he was wearing Trump merch...i.e. Trump was talking about a Make America Great Again hat when he made the comment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    HYUFD said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    So he has been rude about the Mexicans, Chinese and now the Indians, clearly ready made for diplomacy!
    Or as the new host of Top Gear....
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    If you follow your argument to its logical conclusion you'd have to advocate not merely for one person, one vote, but one person, one representative, which is absurd.
    That would of course be the unattainable "perfect" PR, which no country enjoys, although most come quite close.

    So, why is coming close not possible or desirable?
    It's not desirable because the political parties stitch up the selection of the PM without reference to the voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145

    HYUFD said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    So he has been rude about the Mexicans, Chinese and now the Indians, clearly ready made for diplomacy!
    Or as the new host of Top Gear....
    Well he would make an able successor to Clarkson
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,242
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    So he has been rude about the Mexicans, Chinese and now the Indians, clearly ready made for diplomacy!
    Or as the new host of Top Gear....
    Well he would make an able successor to Clarkson
    His hair might not be compatible with high-speed car tests.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    God help us all of the Yanks put such a bigot in charge.
    Why do you call him a bigot?
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 567

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Good, information-packed article, even if the conclusion begs the question - why bother?

    The only significant point I would highlight is that under STV in NI, around 95% of voters elect someone from their first-choice party (with around 80% also getting their first choice candidate) whereas under indefensible FPTP, for the past three general elections, a majority of those who even bothered to participate walked away with nothing...

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.
    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    If you follow your argument to its logical conclusion you'd have to advocate not merely for one person, one vote, but one person, one representative, which is absurd.
    That would of course be the unattainable "perfect" PR, which no country enjoys, although most come quite close.

    So, why is coming close not possible or desirable?
    It's not desirable because the political parties stitch up the selection of the PM without reference to the voters.
    I have news for you. Our own constitution is based on that principle, whether or not a party happens to win a majority under the FPTP lottery.

    a) a party (or coalition) can replace its own PM at any time, without reference to the voters.
    b) a PM can remain in office, after an election, irrespective of the opinion of the voters, if he/she can cobble together a coalition.

    The only difference is that, under FPTP, a single-party majority remains a possibility, even if that may prove more unstable (see 1992) than a negotiated coalition (see 2010)...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,270

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    Featuring on the front page of tomorrows Times. The news are fixated with the US snow storm and the migrant crisis. Just to correct my post the article does say over the next decades not decade
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,242

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    The one thing the Gates Foundation is not lacking is capital...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    There was a £1bn deal announced back in Nov.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-george-osborne-and-bill-gates-to-join-forces-to-end-malaria

    The government also funds about 25% of Medicines for Malaria Venture.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2016 24
    I see Jahadi Jez's new bezzy mates were behind the ferry storming.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    Interesting analysis of an election nearby yet nearly unknown to most of us - thanks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,145

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    So he has been rude about the Mexicans, Chinese and now the Indians, clearly ready made for diplomacy!
    Or as the new host of Top Gear....
    Well he would make an able successor to Clarkson
    His hair might not be compatible with high-speed car tests.
    Would work wonders for the ratings though!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    They walked away with an MP. There is no right to vote for a winner.

    Cobblers. A dictatorship could make an identical claim...
    Nonsense. In a democracy, you sometimes lose. In a dictatorship, you always lose.
    Tell that to the millions who have never in the lifetimes elected anyone under FPTP (despite voting for the MAJOR parties).
    If you vote, you elect someone. Just because you don't vote for the winner doesn't mean you don't have a representative.
    "You elect someone".

    Nope, you participate, but DON'T elect anyone. A majority of those who participated could have stayed at home, without changing the result.

    If you view that with equanimity, you'd feel quite comfortable in a dictatorship, I suggest.

    What is "representative democracy", if the majority elect no-one? The "representatives" may as well be appointees...
    If you follow your argument to its logical conclusion you'd have to advocate not merely for one person, one vote, but one person, one representative, which is absurd.
    That would of course be the unattainable "perfect" PR, which no country enjoys, although most come quite close.

    So, why is coming close not possible or desirable?
    It's not desirable because the political parties stitch up the selection of the PM without reference to the voters.
    I have news for you. Our own constitution is based on that principle, whether or not a party happens to win a majority under the FPTP lottery.

    a) a party (or coalition) can replace its own PM at any time, without reference to the voters.
    b) a PM can remain in office, after an election, irrespective of the opinion of the voters, if he/she can cobble together a coalition.

    The only difference is that, under FPTP, a single-party majority remains a possibility, even if that may prove more unstable (see 1992) than a negotiated coalition (see 2010)...
    Yes, as I said, our current system achieves purpose 1 only acceptably. It would be better to separate the election of the PM from the election of the Commons.

    But until that happens, adding proportionality to the Commons makes the election of the PM less acceptable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,270

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    The one thing the Gates Foundation is not lacking is capital...
    George Osborne is travelling to Liverpool with Bill Gates to see ground breaking research and the deal is part of George Osborne's control over a new look foreign aid programme
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    PClipp said:

    OK, Mr Kle, I looked up Mr Quid`s previous post. He said:

    On topic, electoral reform is not the same as political reform.

    Our political system currently sees a general election trying to do three things:

    (1) Elect a prime minister and a government by the voters without allowing parties to stitch up the result without reference to the voters
    (2) Elect a legislature that represents the political balance of the country
    (3) Elect a super social worker ("I must write to my MP about that") for every area of the country - party is irrelevant to this.

    And of course, Mr Quid is quite wrong.

    Point 1 should read: Elect a prime minister and a government by the voters, who can command a majority of votes in the House of Commons.

    Point 2 is quite right.

    Point 3 is a strategy to win votes, not an objective. (This point seems to come straight our of the Tory Party handbook.)

    So I apologise to Mr Quid for having said that he was entirely wrong. His post was a bit of a curate`s egg.
    If you don't allow the electorate to elect a majority of MPs from one party, you get the parties stitching up the PM/government without reference to the voters. As happened in 2010.

    And the "super social worker" is unquestionably by consensus a big part of the job. If it weren't, you wouldn't hear about "good constituency MPs".
    Any voting system is capable of throwing up enough MPs to provide a majority in Parliament. Including STV and AV, if that is how the electorate as a whole feels.

    Contrariwise, the Coalition Government, from the point of view of the country, was one of the best we have had in recent years. Mr Cameron seemed to be much more comfortable with that than he does with the present set-up.

    On your last point, Mr Quid, how many Tory MPs are described as "good constituency MPs", according to your definition? I suspect the answer is relatvely small.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    AndyJS said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    God help us all of the Yanks put such a bigot in charge.
    Why do you call him a bigot?
    Are you blind deaf and stupid?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    Thanks. As big and varied a place as it is, their electoral rules and cycles seem needlessly complex. I wonder if ours seems that way to them? Surely not?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited 2016 24

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    The one thing the Gates Foundation is not lacking is capital...
    George Osborne is travelling to Liverpool with Bill Gates to see ground breaking research and the deal is part of George Osborne's control over a new look foreign aid programme
    Ah, yes - to the world's first School of Tropical Medicine, recipient (via Ronald Ross) of the world's first Nobel Prize for Medicine, and the UK's first Nobel Prize for anything...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RodCrosby said:

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    The one thing the Gates Foundation is not lacking is capital...
    George Osborne is travelling to Liverpool with Bill Gates to see ground breaking research and the deal is part of George Osborne's control over a new look foreign aid programme
    Ah, yes - to the world's first School of Tropical Medicine, recipient (via Ronald Ross) of the world's first Nobel Prize for Medicine, and the UK's first Nobel Prize for anything...
    Not as good as Keppel Street though...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    PClipp said:

    Any voting system is capable of throwing up enough MPs to provide a majority in Parliament. Including STV and AV, if that is how the electorate as a whole feels.

    The more proportional, the less likely this is.
    PClipp said:

    Contrariwise, the Coalition Government, from the point of view of the country, was one of the best we have had in recent years. Mr Cameron seemed to be much more comfortable with that than he does with the present set-up.

    [citation needed] on that latter point. But you need to remember that the coalition government had the explicit support of 0% of the electorate.
    PClipp said:

    On your last point, Mr Quid, how many Tory MPs are described as "good constituency MPs", according to your definition? I suspect the answer is relatvely small.

    Why do you ask about just Tory MPs?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    The one thing the Gates Foundation is not lacking is capital...
    George Osborne is travelling to Liverpool with Bill Gates to see ground breaking research and the deal is part of George Osborne's control over a new look foreign aid programme
    Ah, yes - to the world's first School of Tropical Medicine, recipient (via Ronald Ross) of the world's first Nobel Prize for Medicine, and the UK's first Nobel Prize for anything...
    Not as good as Keppel Street though...
    Anything of note - in public health, architecture, infrastructure, transport, social reform, and a host of others, Liverpool was first - in the world.

    One of the most innovative cities in the world. In comparison, London was an intellectual backwater...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited 2016 25
    RodCrosby said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    The one thing the Gates Foundation is not lacking is capital...
    George Osborne is travelling to Liverpool with Bill Gates to see ground breaking research and the deal is part of George Osborne's control over a new look foreign aid programme
    Ah, yes - to the world's first School of Tropical Medicine, recipient (via Ronald Ross) of the world's first Nobel Prize for Medicine, and the UK's first Nobel Prize for anything...
    Not as good as Keppel Street though...
    Anything of note - in public health, architecture, infrastructure, transport, social reform, and a host of others, Liverpool was first - in the world.

    One of the most innovative cities in the world. In comparison, London was an intellectual backwater...
    These days, Liverpool leads the world only in arrogance.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    George Osborne announces a three billion pound partnership with Bill Gates to eliminate malaria by the end of the decade, the money coming from the foreign aid budget. Would imagine it will be well received by many

    I think this story may be a hoax. If it was true it would be important and great news but just watched the BBC news and it was not mentioned at all!
    The one thing the Gates Foundation is not lacking is capital...
    George Osborne is travelling to Liverpool with Bill Gates to see ground breaking research and the deal is part of George Osborne's control over a new look foreign aid programme
    Ah, yes - to the world's first School of Tropical Medicine, recipient (via Ronald Ross) of the world's first Nobel Prize for Medicine, and the UK's first Nobel Prize for anything...
    Not as good as Keppel Street though...
    Anything of note - in public health, architecture, infrastructure, transport, social reform, and a host of others, Liverpool was first - in the world.

    One of the most innovative cities in the world. In comparison, London was an intellectual backwater...
    These days, Liverpool leads the world only in arrogance.
    Diddums. Setting the record straight is not arrogance.

    The glories of the past are long gone, in terms of current pretensions, yet the fine legacy makes Liverpool still probably England's most liveable city.

    Clean air, big skies, the "most splendid setting" and "finest public parks" of any city (English Heritage), broad tree-lined thoroughfares, the most beaches and golf courses of any Metropolitan area, a public transport system rivalled only by London's, internationally connected by sea and air, and yet 96% white, even though almost everyone is immigrant-descended!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    There were a total of FORTY Indian VC recipients:

    11 in WW1
    One on the NW Frontier
    28 in WW2


  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited 2016 25

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    There were a total of FORTY Indian VC recipients:

    11 in WW1
    One on the NW Frontier
    28 in WW2


    Liverpool alone has 23, including one of only three VC*s ever awarded...
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    RodCrosby said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    There were a total of FORTY Indian VC recipients:

    11 in WW1
    One on the NW Frontier
    28 in WW2


    Liverpool alone has 23, including one of only three VC*s ever awarded...
    23 Indian VC recipients is quite a haul for one city...

    where's yr Nobel prizes then :) ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    There were a total of FORTY Indian VC recipients:

    11 in WW1
    One on the NW Frontier
    28 in WW2


    Liverpool alone has 23, including one of only three VC*s ever awarded...
    23 Indian VC recipients is quite a haul for one city...

    where's yr Nobel prizes then :) ?
    Sir Ronald Ross (awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 1902) for his work with malaria.
    Charles Barkla (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1917) for discovering the electromagnetic properties of X-rays.
    Sir Charles Sherrington (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1932) for his research into neurons.
    Sir James Chadwick (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1935) for discovering neutrons.
    Sir Robert Robinson (awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1947) for his research into anthocyanins and alkaloids.
    Har Gobind Khorana (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1968) for his work on the interpretation of the genetic code and its function in protein synthesis.
    Rodney Porter (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1972) for his discovery of the structure of antibodies.
    Ronald Coase (awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1991) for his discovery and clarification of the significance of transaction costs and property rights for the institutional structure and functioning of the economy.
    Joseph Rotblat (awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995) for his efforts with nuclear disarmament.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    There were a total of FORTY Indian VC recipients:

    11 in WW1
    One on the NW Frontier
    28 in WW2


    Liverpool alone has 23, including one of only three VC*s ever awarded...
    23 Indian VC recipients is quite a haul for one city...

    where's yr Nobel prizes then :) ?
    Sir Ronald Ross (awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 1902) for his work with malaria.
    Charles Barkla (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1917) for discovering the electromagnetic properties of X-rays.
    Sir Charles Sherrington (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1932) for his research into neurons.
    Sir James Chadwick (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1935) for discovering neutrons.
    Sir Robert Robinson (awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1947) for his research into anthocyanins and alkaloids.
    Har Gobind Khorana (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1968) for his work on the interpretation of the genetic code and its function in protein synthesis.
    Rodney Porter (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1972) for his discovery of the structure of antibodies.
    Ronald Coase (awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1991) for his discovery and clarification of the significance of transaction costs and property rights for the institutional structure and functioning of the economy.
    Joseph Rotblat (awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995) for his efforts with nuclear disarmament.
    And those are just off the top of yr head, I'll warrant. You must be good in a pub quiz!

    (Did they do the work in Liverpool too, or did they go to Cambridge/Harvard or elsewhere?)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited 2016 25

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Bloody Sikhs coming over here with their work ethic and respect for Western society.

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/691324787554131969

    That is just plain horrible. What a sick and nasty twat Trump is.
    http://www.sikhsinthearmy.co.uk/vc-winners/4545958279
    There were a total of FORTY Indian VC recipients:

    11 in WW1
    One on the NW Frontier
    28 in WW2


    Liverpool alone has 23, including one of only three VC*s ever awarded...
    23 Indian VC recipients is quite a haul for one city...

    where's yr Nobel prizes then :) ?
    Sir Ronald Ross (awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 1902) for his work with malaria.
    Charles Barkla (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1917) for discovering the electromagnetic properties of X-rays.
    Sir Charles Sherrington (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1932) for his research into neurons.
    Sir James Chadwick (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1935) for discovering neutrons.
    Sir Robert Robinson (awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1947) for his research into anthocyanins and alkaloids.
    Har Gobind Khorana (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1968) for his work on the interpretation of the genetic code and its function in protein synthesis.
    Rodney Porter (awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 1972) for his discovery of the structure of antibodies.
    Ronald Coase (awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1991) for his discovery and clarification of the significance of transaction costs and property rights for the institutional structure and functioning of the economy.
    Joseph Rotblat (awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995) for his efforts with nuclear disarmament.
    And those are just off the top of yr head, I'll warrant. You must be good in a pub quiz!

    (Did they do the work in Liverpool too, or did they go to Cambridge/Harvard or elsewhere?)
    I'm not sure what the definition is, or if it matters...

    Chadwick and the Neutron is well-known, which had a direct impact (as did the University later, via Rotblat) on the development of the A-bomb.
This discussion has been closed.