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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More poor leader ratings for Mr Corbyn

SystemSystem Posts: 12,293
edited 2016 19 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More poor leader ratings for Mr Corbyn

YouGov chart on Cameron & Corbyn's net well/badly ratings since September. pic.twitter.com/va1vqDGnOG

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    1st!
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    When do they ditch the loser? May?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    I have a theory that some of the senior people at Tesco may be PB Tories.
    When I was in my local store at the weekend I noticed that they had popcorn on a BOGOF offer.
    I think that we should be told.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited 2016 19
    As Corbyn's support vanishes among the few mainstream voters who were up for giving him a chance, it only hardens among his visceral band of backers. Labour are in terrible trouble with him as leader.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    Is this still supposed to be the honeymoon period?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:
    » show previous quotes
    Contact trading standards. Oh and tell the shop you are doing so and will be complaining they sold you an item that was not what they claimed.

    Thanks but effectively they can simply say it has been opened at some point (as it now has of course) I cannot prove it left their shop like that. It must have done but proof is required. As soon as I open a phone for such proof they can walk away saying it was previously opened just like Apple have. I suspect trading standards may feel the same.

    Like I said caught in the middle and still paying. It's very frustrating as I know somewhere I was scammed but companies can hide behind saying it's been opened. How many more has this happened too I wonder with 2nd class parts? I just feel it unlikely I am the only one how do you know your IPhone is an IPhone? Now hundreds of pounds down without redress by the looks.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    Moses_ said:

    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:
    » show previous quotes
    Contact trading standards. Oh and tell the shop you are doing so and will be complaining they sold you an item that was not what they claimed.

    Thanks but effectively they can simply say it has been opened at some point (as it now has of course) I cannot prove it left their shop like that. It must have done but proof is required. As soon as I open a phone for such proof they can walk away saying it was previously opened just like Apple have. I suspect trading standards may feel the same.

    Like I said caught in the middle and still paying. It's very frustrating as I know somewhere I was scammed but companies can hide behind saying it's been opened. How many more has this happened too I wonder with 2nd class parts? I just feel it unlikely I am the only one how do you know your IPhone is an IPhone? Now hundreds of pounds down without redress by the looks.

    I probably cannot help with the consumer rights side of things, but if it's as I think, I've anecdotally heard of it happening to an associate.

    Is this correct: the Apple store opened the phone, and they say the screen module is not an official part?

    (Note, for once this is not an anti-Apple rant).
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Fenster said:

    As Corbyn's support vanishes among the few mainstream voters who were up for giving him a chance, it only hardens among his visceral band of backers. Labour are in terrible trouble with him as leader.

    If they do get elected though they could effectively ban the POTUS but receive Abu Hamza with open arms. Not exactly a vote winning strategy I have to say.

    If anyone doesn't believe that watch Dromeys interview from this morning.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited 2016 19
    @Moses_ FPT

    You should have a statutory rights claim under the "as described" clause. Essentially, though, it will come down to you claiming that the shop sold you something that was fake and they claiming that you must have broken it open and replaced the screen with a fake (although I'm not sure why you would do that!)

    http://www.which.co.uk/consumer-rights/regulation/consumer-rights-act

    You can also make a Section 75 claim against your credit card company.

    If this fails, I'd suggest joining Twitter and/or writing to one of the consumer champions in the press!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    If they refuse to give you your money back, cancel the d/d and make them sue you.. I doubt they will bother.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    Looks like the -41% was an outlier in Corbyn's Waterslide of Doom. But the trend is not his friend.

    His only relief is that the slide has to stop at -100%....
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:
    » show previous quotes
    Contact trading standards. Oh and tell the shop you are doing so and will be complaining they sold you an item that was not what they claimed.

    Thanks but effectively they can simply say it has been opened at some point (as it now has of course) I cannot prove it left their shop like that. It must have done but proof is required. As soon as I open a phone for such proof they can walk away saying it was previously opened just like Apple have. I suspect trading standards may feel the same.

    Like I said caught in the middle and still paying. It's very frustrating as I know somewhere I was scammed but companies can hide behind saying it's been opened. How many more has this happened too I wonder with 2nd class parts? I just feel it unlikely I am the only one how do you know your IPhone is an IPhone? Now hundreds of pounds down without redress by the looks.

    I probably cannot help with the consumer rights side of things, but if it's as I think, I've anecdotally heard of it happening to an associate.

    Is this correct: the Apple store opened the phone, and they say the screen module is not an official part?

    (Note, for once this is not an anti-Apple rant).
    That is correct. It appears that the screen section does not have an Apple logo or mark. They wouldn't let us see it opened but brought a photo out of the affected part. Odd I thought. They said it must have been opened at an earlier stage but it never has been and we saw it come out of an apple sealed box.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    edited 2016 19
    I lived through the IDS years at CCO, and even I cannot begin to imagine what is going on inside the Corbynsphere.
    IDS was given time by his MPs, Good people served in his Shad Cab, loyalty held sway, apart from a few irreconcilables. That was his due as the propély elected leader.
    It was his failure to connect, on policy or on personality, that led MPs to oust him, as well as the remorseless march of time towards the next election.
    When the parliamentary party moved against him it was swift and decisive. An alternate leader was chosen, his rival pushed aside by the hope of later glory ( poor judgement, DD).
    Only then did the rebuilding start.
    What hope for Labour?
    1. How much time do you give JC?
    2. Where's the loyalty?
    3. Where's the alternate?
    DYOR
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    edited 2016 19
    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.
    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451
    And the funny thing is that it's all Corbyn's own doing.

    He can't help himself, and nor would he ever think he should either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,354
    Maybe the beard and the old man look went down well in December. But any Labour MP who has aspirations towards continued employment after 2020 better start reflecting on the message of today's report and applying them to this disaster.


    If they think it can't happen to them they can ask their Scottish colleagues. It won't take long.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:
    » show previous quotes
    Contact trading standards. Oh and tell the shop you are doing so and will be complaining they sold you an item that was not what they claimed.

    Thanks but effectively they can simply say it has been opened at some point (as it now has of course) I cannot prove it left their shop like that. It must have done but proof is required. As soon as I open a phone for such proof they can walk away saying it was previously opened just like Apple have. I suspect trading standards may feel the same.

    Like I said caught in the middle and still paying. It's very frustrating as I know somewhere I was scammed but companies can hide behind saying it's been opened. How many more has this happened too I wonder with 2nd class parts? I just feel it unlikely I am the only one how do you know your IPhone is an IPhone? Now hundreds of pounds down without redress by the looks.

    I probably cannot help with the consumer rights side of things, but if it's as I think, I've anecdotally heard of it happening to an associate.

    Is this correct: the Apple store opened the phone, and they say the screen module is not an official part?

    (Note, for once this is not an anti-Apple rant).
    That is correct. It appears that the screen section does not have an Apple logo or mark. They wouldn't let us see it opened but brought a photo out of the affected part. Odd I thought. They said it must have been opened at an earlier stage but it never has been and we saw it come out of an apple sealed box.
    My guess about what's happened, from previous reported experiences.

    Someone in the supply chain had an iPhone of that model, and broke their screen - a sadly common occurrence. They then opened the official box and replaced the new phone with their repaired one.

    From what you've described, that probably would have happened at the store as they were setting up the phone.

    Alternatively, it might be a good way of laundering a stolen phone. Not sure about either of these, though.

    I've never had an iPhone, so I don't know if the box or documentation carries the hardware serial #'s. If they do, see if they match up.

    And certainly complain to the store. They may not refund you, but they may be able to detect a pattern. Also, how long was there between the purchase and the trip to the Apple store? Months? Weeks?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2016 19

    I lived through the IDS years at CCO, and even I cannot begin to imagine what is going on inside the Corbynsphere.
    IDS was given time by his MPs, Good people served in his Shad Cab, loyalty held sway, apart from a few irreconcilables. That was his due as the propély elected leader.
    It was his failure to connect, on policy or on personality, that led MPs to oust him, as well as the remorseless march of time towards the next election.
    When the parliamentary party moved against him it was swift and decisive. An alternate leader was chosen, his rival pushed aside by the hope of later glory ( poor judgement, DD).
    Only then did the rebuilding start.
    What hope for Labour?
    1. How much time do you give JC?
    2. Where's the loyalty?
    3. Where's the alternate?
    DYOR

    1. Minus 2 months.
    2. None
    3. None.

    It's the old guard pissing that they lost control.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Moses_ said:

    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:
    » show previous quotes
    Contact trading standards. Oh and tell the shop you are doing so and will be complaining they sold you an item that was not what they claimed.

    Thanks but effectively they can simply say it has been opened at some point (as it now has of course) I cannot prove it left their shop like that. It must have done but proof is required. As soon as I open a phone for such proof they can walk away saying it was previously opened just like Apple have. I suspect trading standards may feel the same.

    Like I said caught in the middle and still paying. It's very frustrating as I know somewhere I was scammed but companies can hide behind saying it's been opened. How many more has this happened too I wonder with 2nd class parts? I just feel it unlikely I am the only one how do you know your IPhone is an IPhone? Now hundreds of pounds down without redress by the looks.

    Yes you have to keep fighting, I had a pair of defective trainers from Sports Direct,just try and get a refund from them,almost impossible. Anyway I continued from shop, to web site,to all sorts of places , and point blank refusal to accept responsibility. Submitted photos etc, eventually sent them by registered mail back, and finally got a refund of £29.99, and a legal disclaimer.
    Reckon I am one of the few to get a refund,but at what cost of my personal time!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2016 19
    Signs (and clues) point to Palin:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/19/okay-so-is-sarah-palin-about-to-endorse-donald-trump/

    "Is Sarah Palin about to endorse Donald Trump? An investigation."

    "Late Monday evening, during the waning hours of a three-day weekend, a subset of America's political watchers turned its attention to a small twin-engine charter jet that was passing over the emptiness of the Canadian West."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,354
    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:
    » show previous quotes
    Contact trading standards. Oh and tell the shop you are doing so and will be complaining they sold you an item that was not what they claimed.

    Thanks but effectively they can simply say it has been opened at some point (as it now has of course) I cannot prove it left their shop like that. It must have done but proof is required. As soon as I open a phone for such proof they can walk away saying it was previously opened just like Apple have. I suspect trading standards may feel the same.

    Like I said caught in the middle and still paying. It's very frustrating as I know somewhere I was scammed but companies can hide behind saying it's been opened. How many more has this happened too I wonder with 2nd class parts? I just feel it unlikely I am the only one how do you know your IPhone is an IPhone? Now hundreds of pounds down without redress by the looks.

    I probably cannot help with the consumer rights side of things, but if it's as I think, I've anecdotally heard of it happening to an associate.

    Is this correct: the Apple store opened the phone, and they say the screen module is not an official part?

    (Note, for once this is not an anti-Apple rant).
    That is correct. It appears that the screen section does not have an Apple logo or mark. They wouldn't let us see it opened but brought a photo out of the affected part. Odd I thought. They said it must have been opened at an earlier stage but it never has been and we saw it come out of an apple sealed box.
    It sounds to me that you have been sold a knock off phone. If so it is very unlikely the rest of the parts are genuine either. You should threaten to sue the shop that sold it to you. They are in breach of contract and they are better placed to take it up with Apple than you are. The fact you bought other genuine phones at the same time should create an inference that this is what happened and the serial number should prove this is the item you were given.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Is it too much to hope that Labour could in England and Wales face the fate of Scottish Labour?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    @charles
    Thanks but again both say it has been opened. The problem is they can say you broke it got it fixed then have returned with a further fault for us to fix. I can sort of see their points up to the point I know it's never been opened and it's presented as it came out of the box.

    That's the frustrating part I can only prove the point by opening the IPhone and as soon as you do that ( and even if you don't like me) all they have to do is infer it and walk away. It's just no hope for the customer situation. I certainly will look into section 75 claim thanks for that pointer but it will come down to proof yet again I suspect.

    Mrsquare Root
    Thanks but I dare not take the chance Why should I anyway I have done nothing wrong here someone else has. I would really like to do just that though I really would.

    Many thanks both anyway i like the idea of trading standards to be honest but it can only be for them to keep an eye out for others. They then are in the same position as me.

    I am wondering whether to go direct to Apple and say I think you have a problem in delivery systems but huge organisation they won't care.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Moses_ said:

    Fenster said:

    As Corbyn's support vanishes among the few mainstream voters who were up for giving him a chance, it only hardens among his visceral band of backers. Labour are in terrible trouble with him as leader.

    If they do get elected though they could effectively ban the POTUS but receive Abu Hamza with open arms. Not exactly a vote winning strategy I have to say.

    If anyone doesn't believe that watch Dromeys interview from this morning.
    The extraordinary thing was there was no hesitation. Ban king of Saudi Arabia? No. Ban President of China? No.

    I didnt hear Robert Magabu but Guido claims that was asked also, with a similar point.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,400
    Sorry for another O/T rant, but:
    I received a letter yesterday from the council, in response to my application for a place for my middle daughter at primary school next year. In order to verify her address, they want:
    1) an NHS card or a tax credit letter,
    2) a tenancy agreement or a mortgage statement, and
    3) a utility bill or a council tax bill

    Now the council are normally pretty good, but this strikes me as incredibly inefficient. Why are they asking me for a council tax bill? Surely they have a reference of who they send these bills too? Surely they also know - from the electoral register - who lives where? And surely they also know - from the fact that her older sister already attends the school and that middle daughter goes to the nursery at the school - who we are and where we live? The teachers even came to visit her in our sodding house before she started nursery.

    I understand (although am irritated by) the need for them to weed out carpet-baggers, and would be annoyed if she couldn't go to the local school because people from miles away were lying to take the place which should have been hers (although the school is no better than perfectly adequate). I'm just rather taken aback by the un-joined-upness of local government.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    Is it too much to hope that Labour could in England and Wales face the fate of Scottish Labour?

    Well we hope,but it is not impossible, however we do need a new plausible left of centre opposition.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    Moses_ said:

    @charles
    Thanks but again both say it has been opened. The problem is they can say you broke it got it fixed then have returned with a further fault for us to fix. I can sort of see their points up to the point I know it's never been opened and it's presented as it came out of the box.

    That's the frustrating part I can only prove the point by opening the IPhone and as soon as you do that ( and even if you don't like me) all they have to do is infer it and walk away. It's just no hope for the customer situation. I certainly will look into section 75 claim thanks for that pointer but it will come down to proof yet again I suspect.

    Mrsquare Root
    Thanks but I dare not take the chance Why should I anyway I have done nothing wrong here someone else has. I would really like to do just that though I really would.

    Many thanks both anyway i like the idea of trading standards to be honest but it can only be for them to keep an eye out for others. They then are in the same position as me.

    I am wondering whether to go direct to Apple and say I think you have a problem in delivery systems but huge organisation they won't care.

    I don't like Apple, but they're a PR-led company. Write down what happened and escalate it to store managers and above. Be fair and nice, not angry.

    Make sure your story is consistent, though. (Not saying it isn't, but they'll look for cracks).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,400

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    Unions candidate must be Tom Watson, surely? And his position places him as the undisputed 'unite around' candidate for the PLP. If Labour get to a position where they need one and only one candidate, it'll be him.
    He''s not the most electorally attractive option. But he's streets ahead of JC in that regard. (cf Michael Howard, who seemed refreshingly competent and electable after IDS).
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    I guess "Down down deeper and down" will be Labour's theme song for 2020.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited 2016 19

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:
    » show previous quotes
    Contact trading standards. Oh and tell the shop you are doing so and will be complaining they sold you an item that was not what they claimed.

    Thanks but effectively they can simply say it has been opened at some point (as it now has of course) I cannot prove it left their shop like that. It must have done but proof is required. As soon as I open a phone for such proof they can walk away saying it was previously opened just like Apple have. I suspect trading standards may feel the same.

    Like I said caught in the middle and still paying. It's very frustrating as I know somewhere I was scammed but companies can hide behind saying it's been opened. How many more has this happened too I wonder with 2nd class parts? I just feel it unlikely I am the only one how do you know your IPhone is an IPhone? Now hundreds of pounds down without redress by the looks.

    I probably cannot help with the consumer rights side of things, but if it's as I think, I've anecdotally heard of it happening to an associate.

    Is this correct: the Apple store opened the phone, and they say the screen module is not an official part?

    (Note, for once this is not an anti-Apple rant).
    That is correct. It appears that the screen section does not have an Apple logo or mark. They wouldn't let us see it opened but brought a photo out of the affected part. Odd I thought. They said it must have been opened at an earlier stage but it never has been and we saw it come out of an apple sealed box.
    My guess about what's happened, from previous reported experiences.

    Someone in the supply chain had an iPhone of that model, and broke their screen - a sadly common occurrence. They then opened the official box and replaced the new phone with their repaired one.

    From what you've described, that probably would have happened at the store as they were setting up the phone.

    Alternatively, it might be a good way of laundering a stolen phone. Not sure about either of these, though.

    I've never had an iPhone, so I don't know if the box or documentation carries the hardware serial #'s. If they do, see if they match up.

    And certainly complain to the store. They may not refund you, but they may be able to detect a pattern. Also, how long was there between the purchase and the trip to the Apple store? Months? Weeks?
    Serial number of box and phone the same. Purchased October last year and taken in today.
    I think I am going to another Apple Store take a second opinion then chase the credit card company an report to trading standards. Can't see what else I can do.

    Oh and fork out yet more money to get the phone repaired.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Moses_ said:

    @charles
    Thanks but again both say it has been opened. The problem is they can say you broke it got it fixed then have returned with a further fault for us to fix. I can sort of see their points up to the point I know it's never been opened and it's presented as it came out of the box.

    That's the frustrating part I can only prove the point by opening the IPhone and as soon as you do that ( and even if you don't like me) all they have to do is infer it and walk away. It's just no hope for the customer situation. I certainly will look into section 75 claim thanks for that pointer but it will come down to proof yet again I suspect.

    Mrsquare Root
    Thanks but I dare not take the chance Why should I anyway I have done nothing wrong here someone else has. I would really like to do just that though I really would.

    Many thanks both anyway i like the idea of trading standards to be honest but it can only be for them to keep an eye out for others. They then are in the same position as me.

    I am wondering whether to go direct to Apple and say I think you have a problem in delivery systems but huge organisation they won't care.

    Go to Apple directly on Twitter and copy a few people in the public eye/media
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    The unions are as left-wing as the membership. Also, it's not Corbyn personally that the electorate's rejecting; it's his policies. So replacing him with another from his wing won't work.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    No VI?, but judging from other polls the two-party VI seems to be about 70%, currently.

    Cameron "approval" 43%.

    43/70 = 61.4%

    L&N would have that as landslide territory, I think.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Moses_ said:

    Serial number of box and phone the same. Purchased October last year and taken in today.
    I think I am going to another Apple Store take a second opinion then chase the credit card company an report to trading standards. Can't see what else I can do.

    Oh and fork out yet more money to get the phone repaired.

    If you paid it by credit card you have extra protections under the law. Challenge with the credit card company ASAP.

    I wouldn't fork out a penny for repairs. The second you do an unauthorised repair you'll void the warranty etc
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,049
    https://mobile.twitter.com/uklabour/status/689536626993704960


    The new politics seems very sinister...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    Moses_ said:

    Serial number of box and phone the same. Purchased October last year and taken in today.
    I think I am going to another Apple Store take a second opinion then chase the credit card company an report to trading standards. Can't see what else I can do.

    Oh and fork out yet more money to get the phone repaired.

    "Serial number of box and phone the same."

    Ah, okay. Scratch those possibilities then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,755
    On the issues, Trump and Palin are to the left of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

    Trump is the moderate choice !!
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Cookie said:

    Sorry for another O/T rant, but:
    I received a letter yesterday from the council, in response to my application for a place for my middle daughter at primary school next year. In order to verify her address, they want:
    1) an NHS card or a tax credit letter,
    2) a tenancy agreement or a mortgage statement, and
    3) a utility bill or a council tax bill

    Now the council are normally pretty good, but this strikes me as incredibly inefficient. Why are they asking me for a council tax bill? Surely they have a reference of who they send these bills too? Surely they also know - from the electoral register - who lives where? And surely they also know - from the fact that her older sister already attends the school and that middle daughter goes to the nursery at the school - who we are and where we live? The teachers even came to visit her in our sodding house before she started nursery.

    I understand (although am irritated by) the need for them to weed out carpet-baggers, and would be annoyed if she couldn't go to the local school because people from miles away were lying to take the place which should have been hers (although the school is no better than perfectly adequate). I'm just rather taken aback by the un-joined-upness of local government.

    OK off topic rants, try getting a renewal of a Blue badge, after 5 years you have to re apply, and it is a complete re application. My Father in Law got a badge at 85, I had to do a full application again at age 90, and it was a complete pain in the arse.
    It should have been OK to say he could not walk at 85 years of age, and things do not get better with age,at 90, he still cannot walk, but no, you have to go through a whole re-assessment,
    OK rant over.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    @Moses_

    Small Claims Court claim vs the shop that sold it to you?

    Claim against credit card (and they will deal with the shop)?

    Switch to Samsung? (I am happy I did this).

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Thanks all anyway. Note all the comments and won't get it repaired as yet but it looks like warranty is a busted flush already. It's been opened apparently .... The bar stewards even get you the ways as well.

    I think I have hijacked this thread enough but all comments very much appreciated. I will let you know what comes of it all in due course. I don't give up easily though that's for sure

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Moses_ said:

    Serial number of box and phone the same. Purchased October last year and taken in today.
    I think I am going to another Apple Store take a second opinion then chase the credit card company an report to trading standards. Can't see what else I can do.

    Oh and fork out yet more money to get the phone repaired.

    "Serial number of box and phone the same."

    Ah, okay. Scratch those possibilities then.
    I wouldn't rule out Foxcomm behaving badly though
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    O/T R5 commentary.

    'we head to Scotland where it's now 6-0 to Celtic, and while your with me, it's game over now, Celtic have just scored again to make it 7-0'


    I spot a weakness in that statement.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited 2016 19
    Look at Cameron's ratings among Con 2015 GE voters: an 84/13 split.

    Now I don't think "well or badly" is quite comparable between LOTO and PM, but that's a cracking rating and shows up just how poor Corbyn's is - and how hard it'll be for the Tories to replace him.

    What really puts it into perspective is that a lot of Con 2015 GE voters were not dyed-in-the-wool Tories by any means. That coalition included many people who simply didn't trust Miliband/Balls with the economy, didn't trust Salmond with the levers of power, people who might have been sympathetic to the Lib Dems but ultimately didn't want to waste their vote on a lost cause (not all 2010 Lib Dems went red in 2015 by any means). But despite including grudging and unenthusiastic psephological Conservatives, these voters still rate Cameron as doing a good job. Or perhaps more likely the truth is the other way round... and their trust in Cameron is why they were willing to stump up their votes for a party they were not necessarily fond of.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Is it too much to hope that Labour could in England and Wales face the fate of Scottish Labour?

    Nope - same as me hoping Spurs win the treble this year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451
    The Jihadis Next Door now showing on Channel 4.

    Very interesting.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited 2016 19
    RodCrosby said:

    No VI?, but judging from other polls the two-party VI seems to be about 70%, currently.

    Cameron "approval" 43%.

    43/70 = 61.4%

    L&N would have that as landslide territory, I think.

    You mentioned earlier that their threshold for incumbent victory rises the longer the incumbent has been in power, so that would chip away at the landslide a bit?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    Pulpstar said:

    On the issues, Trump and Palin are to the left of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

    Trump is the moderate choice !!

    Assuming Trump is endorsed by Palin later, will it be followed up with an endorsement from Branstad?
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Moses_ said:

    @charles
    Thanks but again both say it has been opened. The problem is they can say you broke it got it fixed then have returned with a further fault for us to fix. I can sort of see their points up to the point I know it's never been opened and it's presented as it came out of the box.

    That's the frustrating part I can only prove the point by opening the IPhone and as soon as you do that ( and even if you don't like me) all they have to do is infer it and walk away. It's just no hope for the customer situation. I certainly will look into section 75 claim thanks for that pointer but it will come down to proof yet again I suspect.

    Mrsquare Root
    Thanks but I dare not take the chance Why should I anyway I have done nothing wrong here someone else has. I would really like to do just that though I really would.

    Many thanks both anyway i like the idea of trading standards to be honest but it can only be for them to keep an eye out for others. They then are in the same position as me.

    I am wondering whether to go direct to Apple and say I think you have a problem in delivery systems but huge organisation they won't care.

    You didn't say which shop you bought your iphone from, but have you seen this?
    https://www.reddit.com/r/iphone/comments/3wie4n/brand_new_iphone_6s/

    I would go back to the shop and keep complaining since your contract is with them. Surely the onus is on them to prove you opened it up?

    I am no expert about iphones (to put it mildly), but I think you can check the IMEI to see whether your iphone was used before you had it? I suspect it was.
    http://www.imei.info/how-to-check-iPhone-warrranty/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883
    Wanderer said:

    RodCrosby said:

    No VI?, but judging from other polls the two-party VI seems to be about 70%, currently.

    Cameron "approval" 43%.

    43/70 = 61.4%

    L&N would have that as landslide territory, I think.

    You mentioned earlier that their threshold for incumbent victory rises the longer the incumbent has been in power, so that would chip away at the landslide a bit?
    Under Corbyn's leadership, Con landslide in 2020 is assured.

    But, Corbyn is working to a different timescale. As Alistair Meeks has pointed out, he, or left wing successors, only have to get lucky once.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029

    O/T R5 commentary.

    'we head to Scotland where it's now 6-0 to Celtic, and while your with me, it's game over now, Celtic have just scored again to make it 7-0'


    I spot a weakness in that statement.

    The comeback is on! 7-1!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883

    Look at Cameron's ratings among Con 2015 GE voters: an 84/13 split.

    Now I don't think "well or badly" is quite comparable between LOTO and PM, but that's a cracking rating and shows up just how poor Corbyn's is - and how hard it'll be for the Tories to replace him.

    What really puts it into perspective is that a lot of Con 2015 GE voters were not dyed-in-the-wool Tories by any means. That coalition included many people who simply didn't trust Miliband/Balls with the economy, didn't trust Salmond with the levers of power, people who might have been sympathetic to the Lib Dems but ultimately didn't want to waste their vote on a lost cause (not all 2010 Lib Dems went red in 2015 by any means). But despite including grudging and unenthusiastic psephological Conservatives, these voters still rate Cameron as doing a good job. Or perhaps more likely the truth is the other way round... and their trust in Cameron is why they were willing to stump up their votes for a party they were not necessarily fond of.

    I don't like Cameron. But if it's Cameron v Corbyn, I'd wade through blood for him.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited 2016 19

    O/T R5 commentary.

    'we head to Scotland where it's now 6-0 to Celtic, and while your with me, it's game over now, Celtic have just scored again to make it 7-0'


    I spot a weakness in that statement.

    The comeback is on! 7-1!
    Supercelticgoballisticacciesareatrocious pt.2
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited 2016 19

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    The unions are as left-wing as the membership. Also, it's not Corbyn personally that the electorate's rejecting; it's his policies. So replacing him with another from his wing won't work.
    I think what is being rejected is a mixture of Corbyn personally and his foreign and "defence" policies. It seems to me that we don't know whether someone who was equally left wing on economic policy could have greater appeal if they cut out the terrorist-hugging and were less hapless all round.

    The Tories can be confident they won't face a Blairite in 2020 but I think they should be asking themselves if there is any leftwing alternative to Corbyn who could be an electoral threat.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246


    @Moses_

    Small Claims Court claim vs the shop that sold it to you?

    Claim against credit card (and they will deal with the shop)?

    Switch to Samsung? (I am happy I did this).

    We have a problem with tech in our family - I intensely dislike Apple because of their business practices, and Mrs J mildly dislikes Samsung, having spent a few days with some of their engineers in the back of a van driving around Spain. Fnarr fnarr. (*)

    (*) Testing radio reception of one of her chips. Allegedly. ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451
    Sean_F said:

    Look at Cameron's ratings among Con 2015 GE voters: an 84/13 split.

    Now I don't think "well or badly" is quite comparable between LOTO and PM, but that's a cracking rating and shows up just how poor Corbyn's is - and how hard it'll be for the Tories to replace him.

    What really puts it into perspective is that a lot of Con 2015 GE voters were not dyed-in-the-wool Tories by any means. That coalition included many people who simply didn't trust Miliband/Balls with the economy, didn't trust Salmond with the levers of power, people who might have been sympathetic to the Lib Dems but ultimately didn't want to waste their vote on a lost cause (not all 2010 Lib Dems went red in 2015 by any means). But despite including grudging and unenthusiastic psephological Conservatives, these voters still rate Cameron as doing a good job. Or perhaps more likely the truth is the other way round... and their trust in Cameron is why they were willing to stump up their votes for a party they were not necessarily fond of.

    I don't like Cameron. But if it's Cameron v Corbyn, I'd wade through blood for him.
    I've warmed to Cameron actually. And I far prefer him to Osborne.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Pulpstar said:

    On the issues, Trump and Palin are to the left of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

    Trump is the moderate choice !!

    Assuming Trump is endorsed by Palin later, will it be followed up with an endorsement from Branstad?
    In real terms, do endorsements make any difference these days?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:

    RodCrosby said:

    No VI?, but judging from other polls the two-party VI seems to be about 70%, currently.

    Cameron "approval" 43%.

    43/70 = 61.4%

    L&N would have that as landslide territory, I think.

    You mentioned earlier that their threshold for incumbent victory rises the longer the incumbent has been in power, so that would chip away at the landslide a bit?
    Under Corbyn's leadership, Con landslide in 2020 is assured.

    But, Corbyn is working to a different timescale. As Alistair Meeks has pointed out, he, or left wing successors, only have to get lucky once.
    Yes. The hope the rest of us have is that they lose control of their party before they get lucky. A Conservative landslide in 2020 might be enough.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,751
    edited 2016 19
    If Cameron decides to have that third shredded wheat, Labour will be facing an extinction level event in 2020 if they are led by Jez
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    If Cameron decides to have that third shredded wheat, Labour will be facing an extinction level event in 2020 if they are led by Jez

    Yes. Someone should persuade him.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    The Lib Dem vote is interesting, they seem to be leaning significantly to the Tories.

    Lots of things could happen, e.g. their new leader could tern out to be fantastic. But the default position is that they have been receiving almost no media attention, are likely to loos seats this may, and are likely to receive even less attention after that, by the GE a lot of their 2015 votes could be up for grabs, and it looks lite a lot will go to the Conservatives.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,751
    Wanderer said:

    If Cameron decides to have that third shredded wheat, Labour will be facing an extinction level event in 2020 if they are led by Jez

    Yes. Someone should persuade him.
    I'll do it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Wanderer said:

    RodCrosby said:

    No VI?, but judging from other polls the two-party VI seems to be about 70%, currently.

    Cameron "approval" 43%.

    43/70 = 61.4%

    L&N would have that as landslide territory, I think.

    You mentioned earlier that their threshold for incumbent victory rises the longer the incumbent has been in power, so that would chip away at the landslide a bit?
    Perhaps.

    Thatcher (1987) had an adjusted approval of 60.5% which delivered a majority of 102 (a landslide) for a third term.
    Major (1992) had an even higher adjusted approval of 61.9%, but could only eke out a majority of 21, for a fourth term, albeit contrary to almost all expectations.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883
    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    The unions are as left-wing as the membership. Also, it's not Corbyn personally that the electorate's rejecting; it's his policies. So replacing him with another from his wing won't work.
    I think what is being rejected is a mixture of Corbyn personally and his foreign and "defence" policies. It seems to me that we don't know whether someone who was equally left wing on economic policy could have greater appeal if they cut out the terrorist-hugging and were less hapless all round.

    The Tories can be confident they won't face a Blairite in 2020 but I think they should be asking themselves if there is any leftwing alternative to Corbyn who could be an electoral threat.
    I think a left-winger who wanted to tax the rich till the pips squeaked could do fine - if he were a patriot.

    Corbyn & allies aren't patriots.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,751
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883
    So it is. The worst is best.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I bought an iPod Classic with the 160gb hard drive. A few months later I bought my daughter an identical one. I noticed she was getting software updates for hers, but mine stopped getting them. A trip to the Apple store elicited the information that mine was 'last year's model' and so would not be updated, even though the two devices were identical in every way, except serial number.

    Previous iPods could play video, but with the advent of the Classic, you had to buy a $50 cable to do so. Throw in the ludicrous prices of Apple accessories, and that cured me of Apple in a hurry.

    The Sony Minidisc was a far superior music player, but I had to carry a big bag with all my discs in it, whereas the iPod is a far more convenient device.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Breaking News: Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451
    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    The unions are as left-wing as the membership. Also, it's not Corbyn personally that the electorate's rejecting; it's his policies. So replacing him with another from his wing won't work.
    I think what is being rejected is a mixture of Corbyn personally and his foreign and "defence" policies. It seems to me that we don't know whether someone who was equally left wing on economic policy could have greater appeal if they cut out the terrorist-hugging and were less hapless all round.

    The Tories can be confident they won't face a Blairite in 2020 but I think they should be asking themselves if there is any leftwing alternative to Corbyn who could be an electoral threat.
    I think a left-winger who wanted to tax the rich till the pips squeaked could do fine - if he were a patriot.

    Corbyn & allies aren't patriots.
    That's the lesson for me about the UK and the US at the moment, and Western politics perhaps more broadly too.

    It's not about the money anymore. It's about culture and identity.

    Which means voters will never sacrifice more immigration for more money in the current climate.

    Perhaps never again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,751
    Blimey, the reshuffle is still going on

    https://twitter.com/craigawoodhouse/status/689554151311810560
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    The unions are as left-wing as the membership. Also, it's not Corbyn personally that the electorate's rejecting; it's his policies. So replacing him with another from his wing won't work.
    I think what is being rejected is a mixture of Corbyn personally and his foreign and "defence" policies. It seems to me that we don't know whether someone who was equally left wing on economic policy could have greater appeal if they cut out the terrorist-hugging and were less hapless all round.

    The Tories can be confident they won't face a Blairite in 2020 but I think they should be asking themselves if there is any leftwing alternative to Corbyn who could be an electoral threat.
    I think a left-winger who wanted to tax the rich till the pips squeaked could do fine - if he were a patriot.

    Corbyn & allies aren't patriots.
    I agree. I don't know if there's a leadership-ready candidate with those characteristics but that's what I'd be concerned about if I were a Tory strategist. They don't need to worry about Chuka et al, they are miles from the leadership.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited 2016 19
    The only explanation is that Brussels doesn't actually believe that Britain would ever vote to leave.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the issues, Trump and Palin are to the left of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

    Trump is the moderate choice !!

    Assuming Trump is endorsed by Palin later, will it be followed up with an endorsement from Branstad?
    In real terms, do endorsements make any difference these days?
    I don't know. It's an interesting move if the reports are accurate,implying that Trump is moving towards mainstream techniques.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2016 19
    The New York TimesVerified account ‏@nytimes 25m25 minutes ago
    Breaking News: Sarah Palin has endorsed Donald Trump in the GOP primary, helping him appeal to Tea Party loyalists
    http://nyti.ms/1T2ddnW

    It's official.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    the penalty I've just seen taken in the last minute by yeovil, clearly was ed miliband.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    RodCrosby said:

    Wanderer said:

    RodCrosby said:

    No VI?, but judging from other polls the two-party VI seems to be about 70%, currently.

    Cameron "approval" 43%.

    43/70 = 61.4%

    L&N would have that as landslide territory, I think.

    You mentioned earlier that their threshold for incumbent victory rises the longer the incumbent has been in power, so that would chip away at the landslide a bit?
    Perhaps.

    Thatcher (1987) had an adjusted approval of 60.5% which delivered a majority of 102 (a landslide) for a third term.
    Major (1992) had an even higher adjusted approval of 61.9%, but could only eke out a majority of 21, for a fourth term, albeit contrary to almost all expectations.
    Shouldn't you have to adjust for the LotO's rating?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Breaking News: Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump.

    It's been pretty well telegraphed.

    The question is - does it matter?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    @lucyjones

    Many thanks for that. Most interesting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,751

    the penalty I've just seen taken in the last minute by yeovil, clearly was ed miliband.

    Take the 12/1 on Exeter winning tomorrow
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    AndyJS said:

    The only explanation is that Brussels doesn't actually believe that Britain would ever vote to leave.
    Yep.

    Let's call their bluff. Fuck 'em.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,883

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    The unions are as left-wing as the membership. Also, it's not Corbyn personally that the electorate's rejecting; it's his policies. So replacing him with another from his wing won't work.
    I think what is being rejected is a mixture of Corbyn personally and his foreign and "defence" policies. It seems to me that we don't know whether someone who was equally left wing on economic policy could have greater appeal if they cut out the terrorist-hugging and were less hapless all round.

    The Tories can be confident they won't face a Blairite in 2020 but I think they should be asking themselves if there is any leftwing alternative to Corbyn who could be an electoral threat.
    I think a left-winger who wanted to tax the rich till the pips squeaked could do fine - if he were a patriot.

    Corbyn & allies aren't patriots.
    That's the lesson for me about the UK and the US at the moment, and Western politics perhaps more broadly too.

    It's not about the money anymore. It's about culture and identity.

    Which means voters will never sacrifice more immigration for more money in the current climate.

    Perhaps never again.
    I think a Jim Callaghan/Denis Healey/Harold Wilson type party could do very well now. But, that ship has sailed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451

    Wanderer said:

    If Cameron decides to have that third shredded wheat, Labour will be facing an extinction level event in 2020 if they are led by Jez

    Yes. Someone should persuade him.
    I'll do it.
    I've blown my fuse at Cameron (on here) more than once. But I've recently started to feel I'll miss him when he goes, even though it's likely to still be a few years away.

    I dislike his EUphilia, and new Labour-lite social policy but, putting that aside, I think he's at heart a patriot, a monarchist, a strong believer in family, his community and his country and I identify with his Shire Tory roots.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the issues, Trump and Palin are to the left of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

    Trump is the moderate choice !!

    Assuming Trump is endorsed by Palin later, will it be followed up with an endorsement from Branstad?
    In real terms, do endorsements make any difference these days?
    I don't know. It's an interesting move if the reports are accurate,implying that Trump is moving towards mainstream techniques.
    He's a smart guy and a quick learner - look at the way he's evolved as a candidate over the last 6 months.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2016 19

    Pulpstar said:

    On the issues, Trump and Palin are to the left of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

    Trump is the moderate choice !!

    Assuming Trump is endorsed by Palin later, will it be followed up with an endorsement from Branstad?
    Who knows?
    But:
    1. Branstad came out saying he wants Cruz to lose the Iowa caucus.
    2. Branstad hanging out with Trump family sporting "Make America Great Again"
    https://twitter.com/joshuaalevitt/status/686936955905376257

    Last time Branstad endorsed someone was Dole in 1996.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Breaking News: Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump.

    It's been pretty well telegraphed.

    The question is - does it matter?
    How is Palin viewed by the Republican base these days?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Wanderer said:

    RodCrosby said:

    No VI?, but judging from other polls the two-party VI seems to be about 70%, currently.

    Cameron "approval" 43%.

    43/70 = 61.4%

    L&N would have that as landslide territory, I think.

    You mentioned earlier that their threshold for incumbent victory rises the longer the incumbent has been in power, so that would chip away at the landslide a bit?
    Perhaps.

    Thatcher (1987) had an adjusted approval of 60.5% which delivered a majority of 102 (a landslide) for a third term.
    Major (1992) had an even higher adjusted approval of 61.9%, but could only eke out a majority of 21, for a fourth term, albeit contrary to almost all expectations.
    Shouldn't you have to adjust for the LotO's rating?
    I've said on several occasions the model takes no account of the LotO.

    They tried something along those lines, but found it added nothing, and their dataset wasn't complete enough anyhow. [I think LotO ratings were not polled until comparatively recently, whereas they had PM ratings going back to 1945]
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the issues, Trump and Palin are to the left of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

    Trump is the moderate choice !!

    Assuming Trump is endorsed by Palin later, will it be followed up with an endorsement from Branstad?
    Who knows?
    But:
    1. Branstad came out saying he wants Cruz to lose the Iowa caucus.
    2. Branstad hanging out with Trump family sporting "Make America Great Again"
    https://twitter.com/joshuaalevitt/status/686936955905376257
    Hadn't seen (2) but (1) suggested at least implied support for him. I guess that could make a difference.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Another interesting political story - Obama's attempt to rewrite immigration law by Executive Orders, which has been blocked by courts at every level, will be head by the Supreme Court in April.

    They expect to issue a ruling in late June.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    This is like MFI sales. With MFI it was quicker and cheaper for advertising purposes just to tell people when a sale wasn't on......

    I fear Corbyn is in the same territory with Labour reshuffles.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Breaking News: Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump.

    It's been pretty well telegraphed.

    The question is - does it matter?
    In Iowa right now if Palin can move even 100 extra voters to Trump, that's a win for Trump in a close race with Cruz.

    Endorsements matter only in close races, providing that they haven't been banked already to make the race close in the first place (like Cruz and evangelicals).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    More poor leader ratings? Quelle surprise.

    jayfdee said:

    When do they ditch the loser? May?

    Why would they? They are likely to win London, and apparently the round of locals is not that unfavourable for Labour so even a poor performance will result in a net loss which could be spun as 'not that bad' (even if it is). So the party members are not likely to turn on him after that sort of performance, not so soon, and the MPs aren't going to break cover en masse without something to back it up like member support, and finally who would stand up to offer an alternative?

    Maybe next year, unless the unions get him first.
    If it is to be the unions, who is the union puppet, er, candidate they put forward when they give Corbyn the long drop? Given the unions are realistically the only ones who can intervene (they pay the piper), then I guess the hugely disgruntled PLP will get behind whoever is the ABC offer foisted upon them...
    The unions are as left-wing as the membership. Also, it's not Corbyn personally that the electorate's rejecting; it's his policies. So replacing him with another from his wing won't work.
    I think what is being rejected is a mixture of Corbyn personally and his foreign and "defence" policies. It seems to me that we don't know whether someone who was equally left wing on economic policy could have greater appeal if they cut out the terrorist-hugging and were less hapless all round.

    The Tories can be confident they won't face a Blairite in 2020 but I think they should be asking themselves if there is any leftwing alternative to Corbyn who could be an electoral threat.
    I think a left-winger who wanted to tax the rich till the pips squeaked could do fine - if he were a patriot.

    Corbyn & allies aren't patriots.
    That's the lesson for me about the UK and the US at the moment, and Western politics perhaps more broadly too.

    It's not about the money anymore. It's about culture and identity.

    Which means voters will never sacrifice more immigration for more money in the current climate.

    Perhaps never again.
    I think a Jim Callaghan/Denis Healey/Harold Wilson type party could do very well now. But, that ship has sailed.
    It might have sailed for Labour; mightnot ukip and/or the lib dems pitch for those voters?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,751

    Wanderer said:

    If Cameron decides to have that third shredded wheat, Labour will be facing an extinction level event in 2020 if they are led by Jez

    Yes. Someone should persuade him.
    I'll do it.
    I've blown my fuse at Cameron (on here) more than once. But I've recently started to feel I'll miss him when he goes, even though it's likely to still be a few years away.

    I dislike his EUphilia, and new Labour-lite social policy but, putting that aside, I think he's at heart a patriot, a monarchist, a strong believer in family, his community and his country and I identify with his Shire Tory roots.
    I've been writing a piece on who should be Cameron's successor, and I can only come up with one name.

    David William Donald Cameron
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Breaking News: Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump.

    It's been pretty well telegraphed.

    The question is - does it matter?
    How is Palin viewed by the Republican base these days?
    I heard her described as "a rock star within the conservative movement", for whatever that's worth.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 193
    Corbyn is getting oversold.My conservative neighbours like the fact that he tries to answer questions rather then the standard evasions from most mainstream politicians.My Tory neightbours loathe Osborne becasue of his sneering student persona and gesture politics if the next electionship was Corbyn v Osborne - Corbyn could win the leadership ratings
    .Incidentally if Corbyn could win a Labour leadership Phillip Davies 100/1 could win a Tory leadership contest with the rank and file provided he could get enough Tory MP`s support initially which of course he won`t.Davies appears to be one of the few Tory MP`s prepared to genuinely take on the politically correct lobby and that is one of driving reasons behind Trumps support with the republican base in the USA
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,243
    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Breaking News: Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump.

    It's been pretty well telegraphed.

    The question is - does it matter?
    How is Palin viewed by the Republican base these days?
    I heard her described as "a rock star within the conservative movement", for whatever that's worth.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-sarah-palin.html

    The NY Times suggests she still has significant pull in Iowa.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    Moses_ said:

    This is like MFI sales. With MFI it was quicker and cheaper for advertising purposes just to tell people when a sale wasn't on......

    I fear Corbyn is in the same territory with Labour reshuffles.
    Corbyn's cabinets fall apart faster.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    the penalty I've just seen taken in the last minute by yeovil, clearly was ed miliband.

    Take the 12/1 on Exeter winning tomorrow
    No way mate. Leicester, that's the bet. Spurs have never beaten Ranieri.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Breaking News: Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump.

    It's been pretty well telegraphed.

    The question is - does it matter?
    In Iowa right now if Palin can move even 100 extra voters to Trump, that's a win for Trump in a close race with Cruz.

    Endorsements matter only in close races, providing that they haven't been banked already to make the race close in the first place (like Cruz and evangelicals).
    Cruz's organization and ground game are vastly superior to Trump's in Iowa. It might take more than that.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    What does it say? I cannot make anything out other than the headline.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,751

    the penalty I've just seen taken in the last minute by yeovil, clearly was ed miliband.

    Take the 12/1 on Exeter winning tomorrow
    No way mate. Leicester, that's the bet. Spurs have never beaten Ranieri.
    In that case, I'm also backing Spurs to win tomorrow
This discussion has been closed.