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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two weeks to go until Iowa: White House Race Round up
Via @mtomasky My favourite Twitter pic of the weekend
pic.twitter.com/Ps6MPVx08o
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Love that pic!
Support for the Union will not.
Tick tock.
Would be interested to see the mirror figures for Dem candidates
In the abstract I think she'll win against Trump or Cruz. When I see her speaking I immediately start to have doubts.
Bring the jobs back!
With Obama not running, there is no reason Trump, a builder and job creator, could not win more of the African American vote than McCain who lost it 24-1. There is no reason Trump cannot win more Hispanics, who respond to strong leaders and job creators. Romney lost over 70 percent of the Hispanic vote.
Given the situation in the country and the world, the issues for Trump are backing up the men in blue, building a wall to secure the border against illegal immigrants, cracking down on corporations that hire illegals rather than Americans, making America the strongest nation on Earth, but staying out of wars that are none of our business. And paying back 10 times over those who attack us — the Jacksonian stance.
Lastly, as Democrats and a hostile media will seek to make Trump the issue, the Republicans should, if she is nominated, make Hillary the issue. Do we really want to go back through all that again, or roll the dice on a better, brighter and surely more exciting future?
http://buchanan.org/blog/124610-124610
Why is Kasich so un-hated by Dems? Even Christie, who I see as a bit of a cross-over candidate, is at -24.
It won't be either of them though. It'll be Cruz or Trump.
The more interesting question is on the Democrats' side. Hillary really ought to win but if she does, she's going to stumble for a while. Could he do it? I've not really given it serious consideration until this last week but all the momentum is in his direction and has been for months now (if from a very low base)
Mike's observation about the polarisation of the debate is right. The US might just get the election such polarisation deserves: Sanders v Cruz (or Trump)
Today, according to a new Fox Poll, Trump would beat Clinton by 3 points in the general election, if held now. Another poll shows Trump pulling 20 percent of the Democratic vote.
What this suggests is that nominating Trump is by no means a guarantee of GOP defeat. But beyond politics, what do the successes of Sanders, Trump and Cruz portend?
Well, Sanders and Trump both opposed the war in Iraq that the Bush Republicans and Clinton Democrats supported.
Both Sanders and Trump oppose NAFTA and MFN for China and the free-trade deals that Clinton Democrats and Bush Republicans backed, which have cost us thousands of lost factories, millions of lost jobs and four decades of lost wage increases for Middle America.
Trump has taken the toughest line on the invasion across the U.S.-Mexican border and against Muslim refugees entering unvetted.
Immigration, securing the border, fair trade – Trump’s issues are the issues of 2016.
If a Trump-Clinton race came down to the Keystone State of Pennsylvania, and Trump was for backing our men in blue, gun rights, securing America’s borders, no more NAFTAs and a foreign policy that defends America first, who would you bet on?
http://buchanan.org/blog/what-bernie-and-the-donald-portend-124592
Roger Stone looks at the risk of a brokered convention.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/14/would-a-brokered-convention-stop-donald-trump/
Firstly, Trump's positions are not really Republican ones. So, why does he get such massive negatives from Democrats? My view has been that a lot of Democrats find Trump's protectionist leanings quite attractive - if this poll is correct, it's hard to see Trump winning the White House.
Secondly, Rubio is clearly the most electable candidate. He's only just behind Cruz among Republicans and is well ahead among independents and Democrats.
Thirdly, do Democrats not know anything about Cruz? I would have thought his policy mix would be much more toxic to Democrats than Trump.
Donald Trump would be the Left Wing candidate, and Hillary Clinton the Right Wing one.
"Via @mtomasky My favourite Twitter pic of the weekend"
Bravo! Very funny.
OT Another film of the year 'Room'. Not for the PB Star Wars franchise but for those with wider tastes it's a must-see.
It's a confusing picture, but I am beginning to think that he might get the nomination and even the presidency. In particular, I've been impressed that he seems to be learning how to do this politics malarkey. His recent debate performances are much improved - for example, his response to Ted Cruz's hamfisted 'New York values' attack in the latest debate was masterly.
Lab benches near empty for Defence Qs. Woodcock, P McFadden, K Jones, D Hanson, M Moon, D Jarvis all here - but not to support unilateralism
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/01/17/andrew-jackson-revenant/
comparing Trump with Andrew Jackson, which strikes me as a fair comparison. Hillary is not the worst fit as John Q Adams.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
If you've been following Nate's implied advice from his articles, you'll have plenty of "green" on Betfair to put this to the test with
Trump can get 35% Republican primary support - can he get 50%+ if it's a two horse race?
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
UKIP: 10% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)
(via ICM / 15 - 18 Jan)
On the other hand, I did lay Jeb Bush at 2.9, Rubio at 2.79, and I backed Cruz at 10.46 and laid him at 5.4 (too early, but still..). Overall, my position is not great, but it's not disastrous.
Trump 5-4
Cruz 5-2
Rubio 9-2
Bush 20s
Perhaps something like that should be correct ?
How much of the market should a dutch of Cruz/Trump make up.
I think I saw Rubio behind Bush in some recent polling mind, so 9-2 could well be far too generous...
Now that is not good, I hasten to add. They should be neck and neck or more likely leading at this point, but polls like this, even if overstatement, will convince Corbyn supporters they are at the worse doing no worse than Ed M. And for some reason they are fine with that (either from not caring about losing, or assuming no worse than Ed M vs Osborne would be enough)
You must be hoping for Cruz to come good in Iowa at the moment
But I don't know enough about American politics to know if Trump will cruise to victory through a divided field, or whether the later states will become a Rubio/Trump fight after the likes of Kasich/Bush/Carson and perhaps even Cruz if he does badly pull out, and edge it to Rubio in delegates?
The Trump fundamentals there are not good.
(Trump will underperform because: (a) as Obama proved in '08, caucuses are all about ground game, and he has none; and (b) his voters aren't natural Republican caucus goers. Rubio will outperform because there's a guy at a caucus, and he's the lone Kasich fan, and he'll go join Rubio rather than embarassingly stand on his own.)
Looking at the ideological bell curves, what strikes me is that what has happened is a skewing of both GOP and Dem curves, but the tails to the opposing ideology are still fat and fairly unchanged... Curious. Socially conservative blacks and Jews for the Dems and libertarians for the GOP?
The caucus system sounds kind of fun tbh. You want plenty of alcohol mind you, which I guess you don't get.
CarlottaVance said:
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A stunning engagement with the argument that tiny Denmark is a better comparotor for Defence spending than Norway!
Well done sir!
Long may the Nats continue to display this level of intellectual brilliance.
PS
$28........
Lovely , costs under 70 quid to fill up my gas guzzler now. Well done SNP , 30% drop in petrol costs, looking after the interests of the ordinary people. All that London lot have done is cut benefits and increase taxes.
John Kasich 320.00 £3.00 £957.00
Why should he not be ahead with Dems?
Even ICM don't believe the Labour score
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election#Seats
Now, that Lab can even score 35%, even if it is an overestimate, should give some pause to Tories, since as you suggest if he was as terrible as they think he should be given his statements, they'd be even further behind. But that they are behind is pretty notable nevertheless.
Even if the world is not preparing, guaranteed, for 1000 year Tory empire, it isn't a good poll for Labour, except in relative terms.
Kasich will not win the primaries because of that fact. But faced with either Hillary or Bernie in a general, he would win the centre. His inability to excite the GOP will hurt some, but:
Case 1: Running against Hillary. Here equally the Dems will not have an excited base and Kasich is so 'moderate' in US terms that his being the GOP candidate will not fire up the Dem base as Cruz or Trump would.
Case 2: Running against Bernie. Bernie will fire up the liberal wing of the Dems, but not the moderates, and he will turn off Independents, ensuring a bigger win for Kasich in that camp.
Net net, if Kasich could get the nomination, I would see him winning the General handily.
So is the poll rubbish?
Rubbish in, rubbish out. These polls are really a waste of time.
Would any other party in the parliament work with Wilders?
The answer to my quiz question - Ford was last US President not to visit Britain during his presidency; Johnson the last elected president
Must be some decent odds on Labmost seats for 2020 though.
If you have a second, I'd be interested to know how you think Sanders comes across to a US audience. To me he seems too much of a denounce-bad-stuff politician, not at all executive or Presidential.
Bob The Builder is especially likely to have an extremely negative view of people like Miliband and Corbyn.
They make too many easy contacts with 9-5 office workers and DE voters.
Mori is more broadly informative because they provide homeowner, FT/PT worker and work sector subsamples.
Corbyn allies will push for show of hands https://t.co/y50nEI80xv
Could you provide links to evidence that he wrote the "the majority of Reagan's best speeches and coined his most memorable lines"?
The only thing we can take from this poll is that political polling in this country is seriously broken.
#Indonesia #Poland #Thailand #France https://t.co/9ZiS9Q1zsD
The other point is that Labour have regressed, Labour have contracted, retreated, into a left wing redoubt. Cut off and surrounded. Where is the relief column? How long will the water last.
Support for the Euro is very strong in the Netherlands, with "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands" being something like 75-21 in favour, which must be one of the highest in the whole Eurozone.
This makes them a difficult bedfellow for most of the other parties. There will probably be five parties with 15 to 20 seats apiece, which will mean that whatever comes out will be a very rainbow coalition.
I could see PVV + CDA + D66 sort of working, although D66 and the PVV are like the LibDems and UKIP...
Most of us of us seemed happy with the sightly left of Corbyn agenda proposed.
So telephone polls are seriously flawed, and online panel polling is serious flawed. It seems that the only method that works okay is expensive and intensive doorstep or face-to-face polling, and nobody is willing to pay for that to be done on a regular basis for voting intention polls.