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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Making sense of White House race and other polling – what’s relevant and what isn’t

Wise advice both for WH2016 poll watchers & British political watchers

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JosiasJessop

Thirst?

DavidL

Excellent advice.

Sunil_Prasannan

Episode I: The Phantom MORI
Episode II: Attack of the ComRes
Episode III: Revenge of the Spiral of Silence
Episode IV: A New Opinion Hope
Episode V: The Polling Industry Strikes Back
Episode VI: Return of the YouGov
Episode VII: The Opinion Poll Awakens

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Episode I: The Phantom MORI
Episode II: Attack of the ComRes
Episode III: Revenge of the Spiral of Silence
Episode IV: A New Opinion Hope
Episode V: The Polling Industry Strikes Back
Episode VI: Return of the YouGov
Episode VII: The Opinion Poll Awakens

Episode VIII Point Tory Pead?

Tim_B

FPT

DavidL said:

Tim_B said:

Cyclefree said:

DavidL said:

Back in the late 60s, they had something called 'articled' (?) where you work for an attorney firm and then take the exam. I was going to work for the firm of a friend of my father in Yorkshire. At the last minute I got a job offer (I was 17) from IBM in London. Dales vs London at 17? No brainer. IBM it was.

Today that firm is still my family's UK attorney, and my daughter (who works in the legal profession) swears I'm the best cross-examiner she's ever met. When she was younger and got into trouble or didn't want to talk about a boyfriend, she knew when I sat down with her that I would get to the truth eventually.

There's a cross-over between I.T. and the law - they're both based on logic and deduction.

Some of the very best lawyers, Denning and MacKay of Clashfern, had first degrees in pure mathematics so you may be on to something. If I enjoy one aspect of my job it is probably cross. It is so rarely that you get to be that rude to someone in the real world.

My daughter was accused of cheating in High School during an exam. I asked to see the evidence and it simply didn't make sense.

I demanded a meeting with the principal, the teacher making the allegation, and student affairs folks. After 2 hours they asked to adjourn the meeting. The next day the principal called me and said "I think we dropped the ball on this one.". A letter of apology was put in her file and her test score was reinstated.

The best part is when you see in the eyes of the person you're questioning that they suddenly realize you're closing in on the truth.

It's a useful skill to have even in the real world.

Watching folks squirm when they suddenly 'get' where your questioning is going at their expense is truly great.

SandyRentool

13. Remember to trust your ARSE more than your ELBOW!

Sunil_Prasannan

SandyRentool said:

13. Remember to trust your ARSE more than your ELBOW!

I'll pretend I didn't see that

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

13. Remember to trust your ARSE more than your ELBOW!

I'll pretend I didn't see that

To be fair the ELBOW wasn't predictive, it was just stating the facts.

Scott_P

@TelePolitics: Jeremy Corbyn 'to announce reshuffle within weeks' after planning demotions over Christmas holidays https://t.co/OQOzZ6A72u

SimonStClare

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: Jeremy Corbyn 'to announce reshuffle within weeks' after planning demotions over Christmas holidays https://t.co/OQOzZ6A72u

That’s going to ruin the festive season for a lot of worried MPs – It's the new kind of politics.

Theuniondivvie

RobD said:

Tory Pead?

Who now?